Subduction Zones Observatory - A set challenge, a scientific need!
Lidia Torres Bernhard, Maynor Ruiz, Manuel Rodríguez
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
The Ring of Fire located on the shores of the Pacific Ocean; It extends over 40,000 km and one of its
main features is that it is located the most important areas of subduction of the world, causing intense
seismic and volcanic activity. It has 452 volcanoes and concentrates over 75% of the active and inactive
volcanoes in the world1. According to the United States Geological Survey, about 90% of the world's
earthquakes and 80% of the world's largest earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire. This results in a
powerful reason to study, understand and monitor the Ring of Fire. In the recent past the world has seen
different disasters that have claimed many lives and incalculable economic losses in infrastructure,
resulting in the affected countries, a challenge not only in terms of economy after the catastrophic event
occurred; but also a scientific challenge to overcome to avoid future phenomena such as earthquakes or
tsunamis (especially those generated in subduction zones) reoccurrences devastating situations. Making a
recent historical review, we observe events that have marked the history of the planet, as shown below in
Table # 1.
Table No. 1 Recent History of occurrence of Earthquakes and Tsunamis
Earthquake and
Tsunami
1964, Alaska
Samoa, 2009
9.2 M,8 meters wave
8.1 M, 14 meters waves
Hokkaido, 1993
7.8 M, 30 meters waves
121 deads
189 Ijured
by Equake: 197 deads and 259 deads because
of the Tsunami in the Okushiri island
Tumaco, 1979
7.9 M
259 deads, 798 injured y 95 missing people
Java, 2006
7.7 M. 7 meters waves
668 deads, 65 missing people y 9,0000 Injured
Papua Nueva Guinea,
1998
7.0 M. 15 meters waves
2,183 deads, more than 500 missings y around
10,000 homeless
Golfo Moro-Filipinas,
1976
7.9 M
5,000 deads, 2,200 missing people, 9,500
injured y more than 90,000 homeless
Valdivia-Chile, 1960
9.5 M. 25 meters waves
there are an estimated of 6,000 deads
Tohoku, 20111
9.0, 10 meters waves
125,000 damage or destroyed buildings,
transport infraestructure serously damage,
25,000 dead or missing, nuclear crisis.
Oceano Indico, 2004
9.3 around 30 meters waves
14 affected countries, around 230,000 deads.
Magnitud and Wave
Losses
The challenge of understanding of the geotectonic along subduction zones processes has been taken very seriously
in countries with economic resources, social awareness and commitment but also developed countries whose human
resource is highly competitive in the scientific research areas for the study and understanding of our solid earth and
its behavior. However, of the approximately 24 countries that share the Ring of Fire, many have not overcome the
barriers of the scientific study, in some cases because they are developing country with many needs to be solved;
that despite its high vulnerability, cultural and educational weaknesses, demands or socio-political needs block
progress in the understanding of these phenomena. Such is the case of Central America Pacific Trench formed by
Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama: all countries in a highly exposed and
vulnerable region but with many challenges to overcome in terms of scientific research natural phenomena that
affect them. Some of these countries have already taken initiatives and in other cases it is starting to take action.
1
Rosenberg, Matt. Pacific Ring of Fire.
Honduras for example, is in Central America; the poorest country in terms of historical instrumental record as far as
earthquakes, so it is not known for sure if in the past has been affected by tsunamis. Studies paleo-geology, paleoearthquakes or paleo-seismology, are basically nonexistent in the country.
Some initiatives are frustrated for the advancement of science in these regions. In Honduras from 2015, with the
initiative of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS), a working group has created as a challenge of
preparedness for tsunamis as a priority on planning and development of plans for disaster management, community
preparedness, education and outreach against tsunamis in Honduras; generating a Pilot Basic Training Course
against Tsunamis: plans, maps and evacuation procedures in case of tsunami, promoting risk assessment for
tsunamis in the Pacific and the Caribbean coast of Honduras, but also in other countries of the region from Mexico
to Panama; this initiative has been sponsored and supported by UNESCO-USAID, NOAA, ITIC and CTWP with
Honduran Government counterpart through the Permanent Commission of Contingencies (COPECO). As shown on
the Diagram No. 1: This indicates a number of requirements to meet in order to conduct an assessment of risk from
tsunamis; however, in the case of Honduras pilot, a number of difficulties have left seen the need for national
instrumentalization and almost nonexistent record or historical memory of the country in geotectonic issues and
general geology of the country. The project aimed Tsunamis modeling using the Most-ComMit; that is a Tsunami
modeling tool facilitated by the Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory of the NOAA, then generate flood maps
and tsunami evacuation plans in order to prepare populations at risk in selected pilot sites.
Diagram No. 1 Flowchart for Risk Assessment against Tsunami.
The correct application of the flow chart of risk assessment for tsunamis was affected due to the lack of historical
data, modeling was difficult by poor or non-existence of bathymetry data for high-resolution models and records of
earthquakes of magnitude greater than M7; insomuch having to eliminate modeling on the Caribbean coast of the
country and only work in the Gulf of Fonseca. This reveals the urgent need for monitoring, observation and
instrumental record in the region; therefore the creation of an Observatory Subduction Zones; is an initiative that
would solve and strengthen weaknesses in different regions of the world, in order to provide researchers with data
(seismic, geological, among other), quality for analyzing risk scenarios and thus creating response plans against
earthquakes or tsunamis and simultaneously strengthening Alert Systems of countries in risk areas. This initiative
should involve all states that are part of the subduction zones of the world, but also universities and research
institutes or in the subject.