A 10
'INXPost
Thursday May 1,1975
THE WASHINGTON POST
R
MAY
'1975
Vietnam Outcome Seen Hasten
By Lewis M. Simons
Washington Post Foreign Service
VIENTIANE, April 30-The
stunning North Vietnamese
victory in Saigon leaves
Laos the only remaining
non-communist nation in the
former. French Indochina.
And it is not likely to remain so much longer.
Even before capitalulated,
most informed Laotians recognized that is was just a a
matter of time before the
Communist Pathet Lao
would take over this country's tenuous coalition government.
The effects of the Communist victories in the neighboring countries will be to
shorten that time and, probably, insure that the Laotian
rake over will be hasicalry
peaceful.
There has been s ome
minor fighting between Pathet Lao units and troops of
what are called "the Vientiane side" and similar out-
bursts will undoubtedly take
place again. But neither side
seems to be prepared or
think it necessary to fight a
protracted battle for military victory in Laos.
Political leaders of the
U.S.-backed Vientiane side
are despOndent and the morale of 'their military forces
has never been lower.
Defense Minister Sisouk
Na Champassak, the nominal rightist leader, when
asked how he felt about the
Communist victories in
Cambodia and South Vietnam summed it up in one
word: "bad".
The North Vietnamesesupported Pathet Lao, by
contrast, appeared to be taking quiet satisfaction from
the; -turn of events Col 4
Phao Bounnaphol7 the- Pathet Lao delegate to the
joint commission in charge
of implementing the 1973
peace accord, said the Pathet Lao were "happy to
hear that now there is peace
in the rest of Indochina."
In essence, the Vientiane
side now fully, realizes that
it cannnot expect adequate
U.S. assistance to counter an
all-out Communist effort.
The Pathet Lao, understanding this, see no need to
launch such an armed campaign.
Instead, the Pathet Lao
dr expected to continue the
approach they have been using ever since the peace aggreement was worked out in
Vientiane in February 1973.
This approach is variously
described- by western observers here as "encroachment" "pin pricks,"
"scratching," "probing," and
qus involve a ceftai
amount of gunplay, as took
place recently at the important road junction of Sala
Phou Khoun, 90 miles northwest of Vientiane.
[United Press International reported that new fighting had broken out at the
junction, which is on the
road between Vientiane and
the royal capital of Luang
Prabang.]
However, a number of observers believe that neither
side is really interested in
renewing large-scale combat
now.
But what about North
Vietnam? That's a question
for which there's no answer
now, just opinions.
"Anyone who thinks the
North Vietnamese won't
turn against Laos and Thailand now that they've won
in South Vietnam is crazy,"
said Defense Minister Sis
•
'Nriitnamese
w u be c 'azy to try to take
on Laos on top of all their
own problems in a country
which has been all but de, strayed in 30 years of war,"
tting Full Pathet Lao Takeover
said a Western military observer who's spent more
than 30 years in Southeast
Asia.
There are said to be some
25,000 North Vietnamese soldiers currently in Laos. If
Hanoi were to decide to intervene with its battle-tested
forces again, no one in Vientiane doubts that they would
smash their way to victory
virtually overnight.
•
"With the North Vietnamese army fighting for them,
the Pathet Lao. could take
over in two or three weeks,"
said Sisouk.
A number of impartial
diplomatic observers in Vientiane now concede that even
Prime Miniter Souvanna
Phouma, who is supposed to
be the neutral leader as well
as the buffer between the
two sides, has begun leaning
toward the Pathet Lao.
Souvanna, 74, is recovering from a heart attack and
observers say that in his
failing health he is drawing
closer to his half brother,
Prince Souphanouvong, 63
and nominal head of the 'Pathet Lao.
But Souvanna is not simply closing ranks with his
brother out of related sentiment. He is apparently sincerely convinced that the
only way for Laos to remain
neutral and free of domination by its bigger neighbors,
North Vietnam and Thailand, as well as China, the
Soviet Union and the United
States, is to maintain its coalition government at any
cost.
As a result, whenever
rightist and Pathet Lao
forces clash, Souvanna orders the rightists to withdraw. Under the peculiar
terms of the peace agreement, the prime minister
can issue orders to the Vientiane side but not to Pathet
Lao forces.
The United States has reduced its military aid to the
rightists from $300 million
in 1973 to $30 million. U.S.
and rightist sources claim
almost none of this aid is in
the form of weapons or ammunition, but rather rations,
uniforms, spare parts and
fuel.
What North Vietnam provides the Pathet Lao remains unknown under the
agreement. The North Vietnamese themselves do not
admit to maintaining forces
in Laos nor to assisting the
Pathet Lao with arms and
ammunition. The Pathet
Lao's Col. Phao, when asked
about this, said, "We don't
get any military aid."
Phao insisted that the
United States continued to
supply the Vientiane side
with arms and ammunition
and that until this assistance stopped Laos would
not be able to achieve the
national unity envisaged in
the peace accords.
Curiously, if North Vietnam does decide to intervene in Laos, the outside
power thought most likely
to stand in its way this time •
would be China. There is a
growing belief in Vientiane
that the Chinese, like the ,
Soviet Union and the United
States, are interested in
keeping Laos neutral and •
free of North Vietnamese
domination.
Chines army engineers,have constructed a network
of roads linking northwestern Laos with China's Yunan province and they are
currently completing a link
between Luang Prabang,
Loas' royal capital, and•
these existing roads.
Defense Minister Sisouk
refused to discuss this road
building. "I don't worry
about the Chinese roads,
and I don't want to talk
about it," he said.