Copyright 1996 by The Cerontological Society of America The Cerontologist Vol. 36, No. 3, 363-372 We used the first wave of the new Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to document the importance of transitional stages — bridge jobs — between career employment and complete labor force withdrawal in the early 1990s. We describe the labor force status of a sample of about 9,500 older Americans with some work experience after age 49, and the transition patterns of those for whom we can identify a career job. We observe significant bridge job activity, including part-time work and movement between self-employment and wage-and-salary jobs. Subsequent waves of the HRS will permit researchers to follow this large sample through the labor force withdrawal process and to analyze the determinants and consequences of alternative retirement routes. Key words: Retirement transaction, Bridge jobs, Self-employment, Part-time work The Role of Bridge Jobs in the Retirement Transition: Gender, Race, and Ethnicity1 Joseph F. Quinn, PhD,2 and Michael Kozy, MA2 There is considerable concern among policy analysts about the economic well-being of future generations of American retirees. Important demographic changes are underway, including a dramatic aging of the population and an increase in the proportion of elderly Americans who are minorities. Both are causes of concern — the first because of the financial strains population aging will impose on Social Security, employer pensions, and Medicare, and the latter because minorities of all ages are disproportionately at risk of poverty (see Appendix, Note 1). One way in which society might adjust to the problems on the horizon is to encourage older Americans to work longer than they now do. If this happens, there are reasons to believe that much of the extended work life will occur on jobs other than the individuals' career jobs. The purpose of this article is twofold: (1) to describe the retirement patterns of the early 1990s, using the first wave of the new Health and Retirement Study (HRS; Juster & Suzman, 1995), and (2) to ask whether these patterns of labor market disengagement appear to differ between the white majority and minority populations more at risk; specifically, blacks and Hispanics. Considerable research has established that for many Americans retirement is a process, not a single event. Many older workers use one or more transitional stages — bridge jobs — between career employment and complete labor force withdrawal. Two common transitional stages are part-time work, usually on a new job, and self-employment. Government statistics document the importance of part-time work and self-employment among older workers. Both increase dramatically with age. Although only 6% of employed men aged 25-54 work part time (fewer than 35 hours per week), 12% of those aged 60-61 and employed do, along with 21% of those aged 62-64, 42% of those 65-69, and well over half of those still working after age 70 (see Appendix, Note 2). Among employed women, parttime work is more prevalent at all ages, but the age differentials are similar. About 20% of employed women aged 25-54 work part time, compared to 28% of those 60-61, 40% of those 62-64, and over 60% of all working women aged 65 or older. Over 85% of those aged 60 or older who work part time say they are doing so voluntarily, and this proportion also rises with age. Self-employment in the United States also increases steadily with age, with a large jump at age 65. Nearly a quarter of employed (nonagricultural) men aged 65 and over and 14% of those aged 55-64 are selfemployed, compared to less than 8% of employed men aged 16-54. For women, the proportion selfemployed is smaller at all ages. It jumps from less than 6% for employed women aged 16-54 to 9% at ages 5564 and then to 16% for those 65 or older. One reason that self-employment is more common among older workers is that those already self-employed in their career jobs tend to retire later than do wage and salary workers. In addition, however, some people turn to self-employment late in life, often as a means of gradual retirement (Quinn, 1980,1981). Some of these part-time and self-employment jobs are bridge jobs between career work and retirement. The importance of bridge jobs is likely to increase in the future, as the population ages, as life expectancies continue to increase, and as public and private 1 An earlier version of this article was presented at the HRS Early Results Workshop on Minority Perspectives, Ann Arbor, May 25-27, 1995. We would like to thank the Retirement Research Foundation, the Employee Benefit Research Institute, the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and the Program for Research on Black Americans for research support, and the members of the workshop and two anonymous referees for very helpful comments on an earlier draft. 2 Boston College, Department of Economics. Address correspondence to Joseph F. Quinn, Boston College, Department of Economics, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167. Vol.36, No. 3,1996 363 sector retirement incentives diverge. The number of Americans aged 65 or older is projected to double by the year 2030, while the number aged 55 to 64 increases by two-thirds. In stark contrast, the number under 55 will remain almost unchanged. As a result, the percentage of Americans aged 65 and over will increase from about 13% today to nearly 22% by 2030, with most of the increase occurring between 2010 and 2030. By then, a third of the U.S. population will be 55 or older, and the median age will have risen from 33 to 42 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989; U.S. Senate, 1991). The older population of the future will be much more diverse racially and ethnically than are current retirees. Although the older (65 + ) white population is projected to grow by about 90% by the year 2030, the older black population will increase by almost 250% and the older Hispanic population by nearly 400%. The proportion of the elderly who are minority will increase from about 15% today to a quarter by 2030, and then to nearly a third by the year 2050 (U.S. Senate, 1991). Currently, elderly Hispanics are twice as likely and elderly blacks three times as likely to be poor as are elderly whites. For all groups, those elderly individuals who are still working are much less likely to be poor than those already out of the labor force (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1992). Clearly, the issues of labor force activity, race and ethnicity, and economic well-being among the elderly are closely intertwined. Public policy initiatives are also important. At the federal level, changes are underway to encourage (or at least to stop discouraging) work by older Americans. Mandatory retirement has been virtually eliminated, Social Security's normal retirement age is scheduled to increase from 65 to 66 and eventually to 67, the amount of money that Social Security recipients can earn without reducing their benefits has been increased, and the reward for delaying benefit receipt beyond the normal retirement age (the delayed retirement credit) is on the rise. Some analysts have proposed that the normal retirement age be increased more quickly and further than currently legislated, to 68 and then beyond, indexed to longevity, and that early eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits be delayed from age 62 to 65 (Mitchell & Quinn, 1996, Chapters 3 & 4). At the same time that these changes in federal policies are encouraging additional work, many employers, through their defined-benefit private pension plans, continue to penalize work beyond particular ages. They do so with benefit calculation rules that reduce a worker's pension wealth (the present value of expected pension benefits) with additional years on the job (see Appendix, Note 3). This contradictory combination of public and private sector policies (encouraging work by older Americans, but not on their career jobs) may make gradual retirement via bridge jobs even more prevalent than it is today. Rational workers may leave their career jobs when the pension incentives dictate, but continue working with another employer or on their own. To anticipate the issues facing future retirees, we 364 must foresee the retirement trends and patterns of the future and understand the influence of public policy on them. To do so, it is important to understand the exit patterns of today. How common are bridge jobs in the 1990s? Who is likely to use them, and why? Are there differences in labor force withdrawal patterns by race and ethnicity, differences that might accentuate poverty risks late in life? Much of our current knowledge about the retirement process is based on the Retirement History Study (RHS; Irelan, 1972), an outstanding but now outdated survey of older Americans aged 58 to 63 in 1969, whose last interview was in 1979, nearly two decades ago. Because the RHS contained no married women as primary respondents and had no oversampling, we know much more about the retirement pattern of white men than we do about women or minorities. The new Health and Retirement Study (HRS) represents a significant improvement on the RHS and a great opportunity to update and expand what we know. The HRS is current and much more sophisticated than the RHS, it includes men and women as primary respondents, and it oversamples blacks and Hispanics to increase their sample sizes. In this article, we report preliminary findings from the initial wave (1992) of the HRS on the nature of retirement in the early 1990s by gender, race and ethnicity, and type of work (wage and salary vs selfemployment). We focus on the use of bridge jobs between full-time career employment and complete labor force withdrawal. We review briefly the literature on retirement transitions, define the sample we have chosen for analysis, present the results, and draw some preliminary conclusions. Several authors have focused on the nature of the retirement process, with emphasis on the transitional stages of partial or gradual retirement. Gustman and Steinmeier (1984), using the RHS and a subjective definition of "partial retirement" provided by the survey respondents themselves, found partial retirement to be widespread in the early 1970s, even among those in good health and not subject to mandatory retirement or employer pension incentives. They estimated that about one-third of white males would become partially retired at some time during their working lives, and found that partial retirement usually involved a job change. Honig and Hanoch (1985) used the RHS and an objective definition of partial retirement, real annual earnings less than half the individual's highest real annual earnings. They also found that partial retirement was important and that it tended to increase with age: 8% of white married men aged 60 were partially retired, as were 14% of those aged 62 and nearly a quarter of those aged 65. Honig (1985) found similar results with the RHS sample of nonmarried women, one of a few studies of women. Partial retirement was quantitatively important for these women, though less so than for men, and was of significant duration. Quinn, Burkhauser, and Myers (1990) used all 10 years of the RHS and focused on exit routes from The Gerontologist career jobs, defined as full-time jobs held for at least 10 years. They disaggregated the RHS sample by gender and type of work, but not by race or ethnicity. As suggested by the prior research, they found that many older Americans did not follow the stereotypical retirement route; that is, they did not leave fulltime status on their career jobs and the labor force in one move. Among male wage and salary workers, more than a quarter did something else. Most of them found a new job, evenly distributed between full time and part time. The percentage "nontraditional" was about the same for wage and salary (nonmarried) women, although most of those who stayed in the labor force moved to part-time work. The self-employed followed very different retirement patterns, probably because they have more control over the amount and kind of work they do (Fuchs, 1982; Quinn, 1980). In the RHS, only half went directly from their full-time career job to complete retirement (Quinn et al., 1990). Those who did not were evenly split between part-time employment on their own career jobs (an option rarely found in the wage and salary sector) and part-time or full-time work on a new job. In the 1970s, these transitional jobs generally lasted long enough to be interesting to researchers. Of those older workers who switched employers, nearly 60% were still working two years later. Most bridge jobs were in different occupations and industries, and most involved some movement down the socioeconomic ladder; for example, from skilled to unskilled or from white collar to blue collar. There was some evidence that those at the ends of the economic spectrum — the rich and the poor — were the most likely to use nontraditional retirement routes (Quinn et al., 1990). The poor may be forced to do so because they lack pension coverage and personal savings and often are eligible for only modest Social Security benefits. The rich may do so simply because they want to, enjoying interesting jobs with important nonpecuniary benefits. Ruhm (1990,1991), also using the RHS, defined the career job as the longest job held, and again found that postcareer jobs were an important part of the retirement process in the 1970s. For example, of those who left their longest job between the ages of 60 and 64, 40% worked again; of those departing between ages 65 and 69, nearly a quarter continued to work. The consensus from this literature is that partial or gradual retirement, defined in a number of ways, was an important part of the retirement transition for a significant minority of older Americans in the 1970s. But what has happened since then? One early glimpse is provided by Ruhm (1995), who used data from a 1989 Harris poll to compare men aged 58-63 in 1989 with men the same age (from the RHS) in 1969. Not surprisingly, he found much lower age-specific employment rates in 1989 than 20 years earlier: This is the well-documented early retirement trend. But he continued to find substantial bridge employment, with about a third of the men employed in 1989 working on postcareer transitional jobs. Vol. 36, No. 3,1996 365 Retirement routes in America are many and varied, and the stereotypical exit from full-time work to fulltime leisure is only a part of the story. Many older Americans (although a minority) continue to work after they leave their career jobs, often part time and usually on a new job and in a new line of work. For some, this new line of work involves selfemployment. The new HRS allows us to update our knowledge and expand it to minority populations. Data and Sample The initial HRS sample includes over 12,000 men and women in about 8,000 households. The ageeligible respondents were all aged 51-61 in 1992, but some spouses were older or younger. The HRS contains detailed information on the individuals' demographic background, health and disability status, housing, family structure and intrafamily transfers, current and previous employment and some earlier job history, retirement plans (for those still working), health and life insurance coverage, income, and wealth. Because we are focusing on the retirement transition, we have excluded all those with no work experience after age 49, leaving us with a sample of about 9,500 individuals. Our race/ethnicity categories are Hispanic, black, and white (see Appendix, Note 4). Table 1 shows the distribution by gender and race/ ethnicity. The unweighted sample is 55% male, and 75% white, 16% black, and 8% Hispanic. These numbers overstate the proportions of blacks and Hispanics in the population, because these groups were intentionally oversampled. When sample weights are applied, the male/female ratio stays the same, but the race/ethnicity ratios change to 83% white, 11% black, and 6% Hispanic. An important variable in any study of retirement is age, because large behavioral changes are observed at key ages, such as 60, 62, and 65, that appear in pension and Social Security regulations. Table 2 shows the age distributions for our sample. Note that there are more men than women aged 62 or older, Table 1 . Sample With Work Experience After Age 50, by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Weighted and Unweighted % Weighted Number % Unweighted Total White Black Hispanic 9529 7176 1551 802 100% 75.3 16.3 8.4 100% 83.4 10.8 5.8 Males White Black Hispanic 5257 4060 737 460 55.2 42.6 7.7 4.8 55.5 47.1 5.2 3.3 Females White Black Hispanic 4272 3116 814 342 44.8 32.7 8.5 3.6 44.5 36.3 5.7 2.5 Sample Source: 1992 Health and Retirement Study (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). Table 2. Age Distribution, Unweighted,' by Gender and Race/Ethnicity (Vertical Percentage) Men Women Age White Black Hispanic Total White Black Hispanic Total Total 50-54 55-57 58-59 60-61 62-64 65 + 30% 22 14 14 11 9 31% 23 16 13 7 10 37% 19 12 13 8 11 31% 22 14 13 11 9 39% 25 16 16 2 1 38% 27 17 15 2 42% 26 14 15 2 b b 39% 26 16 16 2 1 35% 24 15 15 7 6 Total 4,060 737 460 5,257 3,116 814 342 4,272 9,529 Source: 1992 Health and Retirement Study (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). a The weighted and unweighted distributions are virtually identical. b Less than 0.5% because women are more likely than men to have older spouses. There are other important differences by race and ethnicity. Blacks and Hispanics have lower levels of education, lower wages, and jobs with lower socioeconomic status than do whites. A quarter of the white men in this sample have a college degree, compared to only 10% of the black and Hispanic men. Among women, the differences are less dramatic; the analogous proportions are 18,14, and 7% (see Appendix, Note 5). As would be expected given the educational differences, the male wage distributions differ by race and ethnicity. Well over half of the employed Hispanic men and over 40% of the black men earn below $10/ hour, compared to less than 30% of the white men. The women in this sample tend to earn less than the men, especially when they are not disaggregated by full-time/part-time status. The wage distributions for white and black women are remarkably similar, given the educational differences, and are higher than for the Hispanic women. A similar story appears in the occupational distributions. Whites are about twice as likely to hold managerial, professional, technical, sales, and administrative jobs than are either blacks or Hispanics, and this is true for men and for women. Black and Hispanic men, on the other hand, are much more likely to be operators, fabricators, and laborers. Over 40% of these black women and over a third of the Hispanic women are service workers (which includes private household and personal service occupations), compared to only 17% of the white women. The net result of these socioeconomic differences on retirement patterns is unclear. As mentioned earlier, prior research suggests that those at the ends of the socioeconomic spectrum were the most likely to use nontraditional retirement patterns in the 1970s. Whites tend to be the most well-off, and blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented among those least well-off. Health is another very important variable in the retirement literature, and one with significant differences by race and ethnicity. Whites in this sample are much more likely than either blacks or Hispanics to describe their health as excellent or very good, and much less likely to report fair or poor. For example, 366 less than 15% of the whites claimed their health was fair or poor, compared to almost 30% of the blacks and Hispanics. Results and Discussion Current Labor Force Status One focus of this research is the prevalence of part-time work as a transitional stage between fulltime career employment and complete labor force withdrawal. The definition of part time is arbitrary. We choose to define it relatively narrowly, less than 1,600 hours per year, lest we discover bridge jobs that are really not there. This definition of part time excludes someone working 35 hours per week (the standard definition of a minimum full-time week) for 46 or more weeks per year, someone working 40 hours per week for as few as 40 weeks (e.g., a construction worker with some weeks off between jobs), or someone reporting as few as 31 hours per week for the full 52 weeks of the year (including weeks of paid vacation). When we looked at those working just below full time by this definition (between 1,400 and 1,600 hours per year), we found that a large proportion (primarily women) were in the education industry (mostly in elementary and secondary schools; a few in colleges and universities), reporting full-time hours per week but just for the academic year. This is certainly not part-time, retirement-transition work in the sense we mean, so we have included in our definition of full-time 111 individuals in the education industry with annual hours as few as 1,400. Table 3 shows the current employment status of the sample. Overall, 78% were working at the time of the 1992 survey and 22% were not (this table and all the following figures are based on weighted data). Blacks and Hispanics were more likely to be without a job than were whites. Among those working, white men were the most likely to be self-employed; a quarter were, compared to 18 and 14% of blacks and Hispanics, respectively. The proportion of women who were self-employed was significantly lower than that of men. Finally, there were large differences in full-time/part-time status by gender, but only modest ones by race and ethnicity. White men were slightly The Gerontologist more likely to be working full time than either blacks or Hispanics, while blacks were the most likely to be full time among the women (see Appendix, Note 6). When annual hours per year are calculated, two differences stand out. Black and Hispanic men were much more likely than white men to work the standard 2,000-2,100-hour year; 44% and 50% did, respectively, compared to only about a third of the white men. Most of the difference appears in the highest annual hours categories. White men in this sample were more likely to be working 2,100-2,500 hours and more than 2,500 hours per year. To some extent, this reflects the larger proportion of self-employed, who traditionally report long hours, but the difference remains within the wage and salary population as well. In Figure 1, we categorize all individuals as either working full time, working part time, or not working, disaggregate by age, gender, and race/ethnicity. The general decline in full-time employment with age and the analogous increase in the proportion of those not working can be seen for all groups, especially at the key Social Security ages of 62 and 65. The age-specific data on part-time work are erratic, reflecting the small number of blacks and Hispanics in this category when the sample is also disaggregated by gender and age. Blacks approaching the age of initial Social Security eligibility (ages 55-61) are less likely to be working full time and more likely to be without a job than whites. The experience of the smaller number of Hispanics tends to fall in between. Part-time work is more important for these women than for the men, but there are no consistent patterns by race/ethnicity (see Appendix, Note 7). Whether these part-time jobs are part of a retirement transition or reflect a career of part-time employment remains to be seen. The self-descriptions of those who are not currently employed differ significantly by gender and age. The youngest men without a job are about evenly distributed among retired, disabled, and unemployed/laid off (Figure 2). The proportion describing themselves as "retired" increases steadily from 29% at ages 50-54 to over 90% by age 65, while the proportion "unemployed" drops from about one-third to only 2% by age 62. The "disabled" selfdescription stays important (25-30%) through ages 60-61, and then drops precipitously at age 62. For women without a job, "homemaker" and "retired" are the most common self-descriptions, with the sum rising from about half (at ages 50-54) to threequarters (at ages 60-61), and then even higher for the small number of women aged 62 and over. These data suggest that health and labor market difficulties may be important in explaining the (sometimes involuntary) labor force status of the younger members of this sample. For older workers, however, voluntary departures and, we suspect, the importance of specific retirement incentives are likely to dominate. The Process of Retirement The primary focus of this research is on how older workers exit the labor force. We will describe this for two samples, all those with work experience after age 49 (the sample used thus far), and then the subset for whom we can identify a full-time career job. We have defined a full-time career job as one that a worker has held for 10 or more years, on which he or she is working full time. A bridge job, therefore, could be a part-time job of any duration or a full-time job of less than 10 years' duration. One problem is that some full-time workers are on jobs that currently look like short-duration bridge jobs, but that will turn out to be career jobs (that is, with tenure of 10 or more years) by the time the workers eventually leave them. A likely case would be a 51-year-old with 9 years tenure on a full-time job. It is highly unlikely that this will turn out to be a bridge job by our definition, although it would be defined as one at the time of the survey. One purpose of this research is to derive some early estimates of the importance of bridge jobs in the retirement processes of the 1990s. Because a majority of the sample has not yet retired, we have to make some assumptions about future behavior in order to derive these estimates. To use current tenure implicitly assumes that all workers are just about to leave their jobs. This is a poor oversimplification and would lead to an overestimate of bridge job activity. A better oversimplification, and the one we adopt here, is to assume that full-time workers remain on their current jobs until age 62. We pick age 62 be- Table 3. Current Work Status by Gender and Race/Ethnicity (Percentages) Men Age Women White Black Hispanic Total White Black Hispanic Total Total Working Not working 78% 22 71% 29 73% 27 77% 23 79% 21 76% 24 72% 28 78% 22 78% 22 Of those working Wage and salary Self-employed 75 25 82 18 86 14 76 24 85 15 93 7 83 17 86 14 81 19 85 13 2 81 15 4 82 14 3 85 14 2 69 29 1 72 26 2 69 29 2 70 29 1 78 21 2 Full-time Part-time Unknown Source: 1992 Health and Retirement Study (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). Vol. 36, No. 3,1996 367 • Full-Time — Males Blacks • Full-Time — Females Q Whites Q Hispanic: 50-54 55-57 58-59 Backs QwNus • Hbpmlcs 60-61 Age Categories Part-Time — Males 50-54 55-57 58-59 Part-Time — Females 60-61 50-54 55-57 50-54 55-57 56-59 60-61 62-64 58-59 60-61 62-64 65* Age Categories Dttspmics 50-54 55-57 58-59 60-61 62-64 Age Categories Age Categories Figure 1. Current job status by gender, age, and race/ethnicity. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave II (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). cause it is the most important single age of retirement transition (see Appendix, Note 8). We then classify the jobs as career or bridge depending on their (assumed) eventual tenure. This may lead to an underestimate of bridge job activity, because we miss those who will leave before age 62 with less than 10 years' tenure, but who would have had 10 years or more had they actually stayed until 62. At this stage, we adopt a conservative stance, preferring to underestimate than overestimate the importance of the bridge job phenomenon. Of course, these problems will disappear as the sample ages and retires in future waves of the HRS. Some workers, of course, have already left the labor force or are employed part time. We can and do describe how they got where they are. The problem here is that these workers are not a random 368 sample of the population (they tend to be people who left their career jobs early) and therefore do not necessarily provide accurate estimates of what the entire population will do. Again, subsequent waves of the HRS will eliminate this problem. Current Job Status and History. — Figures 3 and 4 show the 1992 status of our entire sample of 9,529 respondents with work experience after age 49. Nearly 60% of the men are currently working on what is or what will become a career job (Figure 3). We will have to observe them over time to see how they retire. Nearly a quarter of the men are not working at all, and we can observe the details of their departure. The remainder (16%) are working on bridge jobs; of these, two-thirds are employed part time, and the others are on jobs that will have less than 10 years The Gerontologist Reasons Not Working - Males, by Age 16% working, bridge job N - 5257 N* - 4094.25 worked since age 50 50-54 55-57 56-59 60-61 62-64 65* Age Categories 23% not working Reasons Not Working - Females, by Age Figure 3. Current job status, males. N* = weighted observations. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave I (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). 28% working, bridge job Age Categories Figure 2. Reasons for not working, by gender and age. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave II (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). N - 4272 N* - 3277.75 worked since age 50 duration when they reach age 62 (see Appendix, Note 9). When we look at the previous jobs of the men currently working part time, we find that the vast majority of those with good data on the previous job worked full time before that (see Appendix, Note 10). This is a classic bridge-job scenario, from full time to part time. Of those working on full-time but shortduration jobs, nearly all were full time previously. When we look back in time at the 23% of men without a job in 1992, about two-thirds had left directly from a career job, and a third last worked on a bridge job. The experiences of the women in this sample are very different, and statistically so at the .01 level (Figure 4). Although the proportion of women not working is almost identical to that of the men, the working women are less likely to be employed on a full-time career job (49% versus 59% of males) and much more likely to be on a bridge job (28% versus 16%). Those not working are much more likely to have last worked on a bridge job (two-thirds did versus one-third of the men). In all cases, a higher proportion of the women's bridge jobs were part time (rather than short duration) than was the case for the men. There are some statistically significant differences by race/ethnicity in addition to those noted in Table 3. Bridge jobs are more common among Hispanic men than among white or black men. For example, of those not working, 54% of Hispanic men last worked on a bridge job, compared to only about one-third of whites and blacks. Of those currently working on a part-time job, one-fifth of the Hispanic men also Vol. 36, No. 3,1996 22% not working Figure 4. Current job status, females. N* = weighted observations. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave I (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). worked part time on their previous jobs, compared to only 12 and 15% of the whites and blacks. For some, in fact, employment may be a series of "bridge-like jobs" that may or may not signify anything about retirement transition (see next section). Although bridge jobs are more important for women than for men, they are less important for black women than for either white or Hispanic women. Only 23% of these black women are on bridge jobs, compared to about 30% of the whites and Hispanics. Of the women without a job, only 59% of the black women came from a bridge job, compared to 68 and 75% of the whites and Hispanics. How much bridge job activity do we observe in this snapshot? Among the approximately one-quarter of the sample not working, a great deal — about onethird of the men and two-thirds of the women without a job — last worked on a bridge job. Among the approximately three-quarters who are still working, there is also considerable bridge job activity — onefifth of the employed men and one-third of the employed women are working on jobs that are either 369 bridge part time or will have less than 10 years' duration even if they work until age 62. If our "age 62" assumption turns out to be true for everyone, 25% of the men and 40% of the women in this sample will have last worked on a bridge job when they leave the labor force. Although calculation of the exact proportion must await later waves of the HRS, it is clear that the proportion will represent a significant minority of the population. Career Job Status. — For some workers, life may be a series of part-time or short-duration jobs. If so, the ones observed late in life may not represent any change in the pattern, and we might be misled into seeing retirement transition when none in fact exists. We would certainly not describe a part-time or shortduration job at age 35 as evidence of gradual retirement; for some, we should be careful of doing so at later ages as well. To concentrate on those for whom a bridge job would represent a change, we focus here on only those for whom we can identify a full-time career job, and then observe the transitions from these jobs. By looking at current, last, and prior jobs, we can identify a full-time career job for 86% of the (weighted) men and 63% of the (weighted) women with work experience after age 49. Among the men, we lose a much higher percentage of the blacks (19%) and the Hispanics (30%) than we do the whites (13%); among the women, we lose nearly half of the Hispanics but only about one-third of the whites and blacks. In Figures 5 and 6, we describe the transition status as of 1992 of these "career" men and women, assuming again that all those currently working full time will continue to do so until age 62. The vast majority were still working on their career jobs in 1992, and we will follow their departure patterns over time. Of those who had left their career jobs, however, nearly half moved to a bridge job rather than directly out of the labor force, and the proportions were nearly identical for career men and women. The differences by race were also much smaller than were observed in the larger sample. It is too early to draw strong conclusions from these early movers, but the data do suggest that bridge job activity is important even among those with long-term career jobs, that much of the difference between the withdrawal patterns of men and women is due to the lower proportion of women with a full-time, long-duration career job, and that some of the differences observed by race/ ethnicity are due to the differential likelihood of having a career job late in life. 4% career - bridge - out Figure 5. Career job status, males. N* = weighted observations. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave I (see Juster & Suzman,1995). bridge career - bridge - out Figure 6. Career job status, females. N* = weighted observations. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave I (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). activity (among those with a transition) was about the same for the two groups, and both exhibited considerable cross-over. Of the career wage and salary workers already on another job, more than a quarter had moved to self-employment, as did 10% of those who used a bridge job on the way out (Figure 7). These may be workers searching for a new line of work or the flexible hours unavailable on their career jobs. Of the much smaller number of career selfemployed who switched jobs, over half moved to a wage and salary job. Despite this higher proportion, there is a net influx into self-employment because of the much higher number of wage and salary workers. Summary Wage and Salary Versus Self-Employed Workers. — The results from the 1992 wave of the HRS can only suggest what the longitudinal data will reveal, but the In Figures 7 and 8, we disaggregate the career sample preliminary results are intriguing. in another way, to see whether there are differences • There is a wide variety of retirement behaviors in the transition patterns of wage and salary (W&S) to be studied, even within narrowly defined age and self-employed (SE) workers, and whether workgroups. ers switch status on the way out. • Bridge jobs continue to provide an important As expected, career wage and salary workers were intermediate step in the retirement processes of a significantly more likely to be out of the labor force; significant minority of older Americans. 19% were out by 1992, compared to only 10% of the career self-employed. The prevalence of bridge job • Despite cross-overs in both directions, there is a 370 The Gerontologist 71% still on career job career - bridge • out Figure 7. Career job status, wage and salary workers. N* = weighted observations. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave I (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). as necessarily being evidence of gradual labor force withdrawal. • Much of the difference in retirement patterns by gender and some of the differences by race/ethnicity disappear when we concentrate only on those with a full-time, long-duration career job, suggesting that analysis of employment pattern prior to retirement may be an important component of understanding eventual labor force withdrawal. The retirement patterns of older Americans are far from simple. Although the majority do leave their career jobs and the labor market simultaneously, a significant minority use bridge jobs to retire more gradually. Second careers are a common phenomenon. As the nation ages and as changes in federal policy, including Social Security, reduce the work disincentives facing older Americans, these rich and varied retirement routes are likely to become all the more prevalent and important. References Fuchs, V. (1982). Self-employment and labor force participation of older males. Journal of Human Resources, 17, 339-357. Custman, A. A., & Steinmeier, T. L. (1984). Partial retirement and the analysis of retirement behavior. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 37r 403-415. Honig, M. (1985). Partial retirement among women. Journal of Human Resources, 20, 613-621. Honig, M., & Hanoch, G. (1985). Partial retirement as a separate mode of retirement behavior. Journal of Human Resources, 20, 21-46. Irelan, L. M. (1972). Retirement History Survey: Introduction. Social Security Bulletin, 35(11), 3-8. Juster, F.T.,& Suzman, R. (1995). An overview of the Health and Retirement Survey. The Journal of Human Resources, 30, S7-S56. 84% still on career job Mitchell, O.S.,&Quinn,J. F. (1996). Final report of the Technical Panel on 74% W&S career - bridge - out Figure 8. Career job status, self-employed workers. N* = weighted observations. Source: Health and Retirement Study Wave I (see Juster & Suzman, 1995). net inflow of workers into self-employment late in life, perhaps as a means of acquiring flexible hours and retiring gradually. • Women are more likely than men to utilize bridge jobs. • There are significant differences in current labor force status by race and ethnicity, with blacks or Hispanics less likely than whites to be employed in the years approaching traditional retirement age. • Although there are differences in how people leave the labor force by race and ethnicity, they do not fall into an obvious pattern. In this initial HRS wave, Hispanic men are more likely than other men to be on a bridge job or to have last worked on a bridge job; among women, blacks are the least likely to have done so. The implications of this are as yet unclear. • Hispanic men and women and black men are more likely than the other groups to have a series of jobs with "bridge" characteristics, suggesting caution when interpreting a bridge job, even late in life, Vol. 36, No. 3,1996 Trends and Issues in Retirement Savings. Washington, DC: Advisory Council on Social Security. (Also University of Pennsylvania, Aging Research Center, Working Paper WPS 95-06.) Quinn, J. F. (1980). Labor-force participation patterns of older selfemployed workers. Social Security Bulletin, 43(4), 17-28. Quinn, J. F. (1981). The extent and correlates of partial retirement. The Cerontologist, 21, 634-643. Quinn, J. F., & Burkhauser, R. V. (1994). Retirement and the labor force participation of the elderly. In L. C. Martin & S. H. Preston (Eds.), The demography of aging (pp. 50-101). Washington, DC: The National Academy Press. Quinn, J. F., Burkhauser, R. V., & Myers, D. A. (1990). Passing the torch: The influence of economic incentives on work and retirement. Kalamazoo, M l : Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Ruhm, C. J. (1990). Bridge jobs and partial retirement. Journal of Labor Economics, 8, 482-501. Ruhm, C. J. (1991). Career employment and job stopping. Industrial Relations, 30,193-208. Ruhm, C. J. (1995). Secular changes in the work and retirement patterns of older men. Journal of Human Resources, 30, 362-385. Social Security Administration. (1995). Annual statistical supplement to the Social Security Bulletin, 1995. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1989). Projections of the population of the United States, by age, sex, and race: 1988 to 2080 (Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1992). Poverty in the United States: 1992 (Current Population Reports, Series P-60, No. 185). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Senate, Special Committee on Aging. (1991). Aging America: Trends and projections. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Received January 2, 1996 Accepted February 2, 1996 Appendix Notes 1. A recent review of current demographic and labor market trends, and their implications for the economic 371 well-being of future retirees, can be found in Mitchell and Quinn (1996, Chapter 2). These numbers are based on unpublished Bureau of Labor Statistics data on the nonagricultural workforce that include more age detail than is available in the tables published in Employment and Earnings. This occurs when the future benefit increases that follow additional years of work on the job are insufficient to make up for the pension benefits initially foregone. For a discussion of these financial incentives and their effects, see Quinn and Burkhauser (1994). These categories are derived from 2 HRS questions. Individuals are asked whether they consider themselves Hispanic or Latino, and then whether they consider themselves White/Caucasian, Black/African American, American Indian or Alaskan Native, Asian or Pacific Islander, or Other. We categorized all those who answered "yes" to the Hispanic/Latino question as Hispanic, and (almost all) the rest as either black or white. There are about 200 Asians and American Indians who consider themselves neither black, white, nor Hispanic, and they are also excluded from this analysis. The wide disparities within this Hispanic population stand out in the educational distributions. Over 40% of 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. these older Hispanics report having no more than an 8th grade education (and over a third have only 0-7 years), while a very different 8% have college or postgraduate degrees. About two-thirds of the Hispanics in the sample are Mexican-Americans, 10% are Cubans, 7% are Puerto-Rican, 6% are Spanish, and the remainder are Central or South American or other. All these differences are statistically significant at the 0.05 level (and most at the 0.01 level), except for the full-time, part-time differences among the women. The full-time, part-time, not working differences are statistically different at the 0.01 level for men; for women, the differences are only significant at the 0.10 level. In 1994, 71% of all new Social Security recipients were aged 62-64, with the vast majority aged 62 (Social Security Administration, 1995, Table 6.A3.) A small number (less than 2% of the men and 1 % of the women) did not provide enough information to determine whether they were working full-time or parttime, or what their current job tenure was. The HRS asked about prior jobs that lasted at least 5 years. Some of those with no prior job history may have had prior jobs that lasted less than 5 years. THE PUBLIC POLICY AND AGING REPORT A quarterly publication of the National Academy on Aging bringing you the latest research and analysis on the public policy implications of an aging society. BECOME A SUBSCRIBER TODAY RATES GSA Members Domestic $20/yr. $30/yr. Canada & Mexico Overseas $35/yr. $40/yr. ORDERING INFORMATION FAX or mail your name, address, phone number, credit card number and expiration date. FAX: (202)842-1150 MAIL: PO Box 79151 Baltimore, MD 21279-0151 For information, please call (202) 408-3375 372 The Gerontologist
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