Tariff Information Paper Draft Annual Load Factors for 2014/15 Generation TNUoS Charges Under CMP213 (Project TransmiT) This information paper contains draft Annual Load Factors (ALFs) that National Grid proposes to use in the calculation of Generation TNUoS charges for 2014/15 if Directed to implement CMP213 WACM2. We welcome customer queries in regards to these by 17 January 2014. 13 December 2013 V1.0 Disclaimer This report is published without prejudice and whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the Draft Annual Load Factors, National Grid reserves the right to alter individual Final Annual Load Factors following discussion with the affected generators. Contents 1 Introduction .....................................................................................3 2 Changes from Indicative Annual Load Factors.............................4 Contact: 3 Specific Annual Load Factors ........................................................5 4 Generic Annual Load Factors.........................................................8 5 Next Steps........................................................................................9 Stuart.Boyle@ 6 Comments & Feedback.................................................................10 Any Questions? Stuart Boyle nationalgrid.com Appendix A – Calculation of Specific Annual Load Factors .............11 Appendix B – Calculation of Generic Annual Load Factors..............15 01926 655588 2 1 Introduction CMP213 is the CUSC Modification proposal following on from Project TransmiT, the Authority’s review of electricity transmission charging and associated connection arrangements. Further details of the modification can be found on the CUSC Modifications area of National Grid’s website1. CMP213 seeks to make changes to the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charging methodology, in three areas. One of these is to better reflect the costs imposed by different generators on the electricity transmission network. Ofgem indicated on 1 August 2013 that it was minded to approve CMP213 Working Group Alternative 2 (WACM2) which proposed to use specific generator Annual Load Factors (ALFs) to reflect the costs imposed by different generators on the electricity transmission network. Under this proposal the wider generation charge is comprised of four tariff components; Peak Security, Shared Year Round, Non-Shared Year Round and Residual. The Shared Year Round component of a generator’s TNUoS charge is the product of the Shared Year Round tariff component for the generation zone, Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) and the specific ALF of the generator. CMP213 WACM22 requires National Grid to provide its customers with draft ALFs for the following charging year before 25th December. If a Direction is given to implement CMP213 with effect from 1 April 2014 then we intend to use the draft ALFs stated in this document for the purposes of charge setting. Under CMP213 WACM2 customers have a period of 15 working days from the date of publishing to notify National Grid of any errors. Given Ofgem’s minded to position to implement WACM2 from April 2014, and customers’ need for information on the impact on their charges, we are publishing these draft ALFs in advance of the requirements. We believe that this will allow our customers more opportunity to understand and review their specific ALFs and we are happy to provide support and advice on their derivation on a bilateral basis. To that end, this document also describes how these draft ALFs have been calculated. We encourage customers to review the draft ALFs pertaining to their operations and welcome any comments before 17 January 2014. If a Direction is given to implement CMP213 in April 2014 the final ALFs will be published in late January 2014. 1 http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Codes/systemcode/amendments/currentamendment proposals/ 2 http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/70C7A64A-A62C-418D-A72A- FF87CEE869FA/61007/FinalReportVolume4v10FinalReport.pdf 3 2 Changes from Indicative Annual Load Factors On 4 November 2013, we published our quarterly update of forecast TNUoS tariffs for 2014/153. Appendix G to that document contained indicative generic and specific ALFs. These were intended to provide customers with an early view of their specific ALFs to help their understanding of the impact of CMP213 WACM2. Since then we have further audited the data and process used for ALF calculation and as a result these draft ALFs may differ from the November indicative values. Commissioning dates have generally been taken from the Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics 2013 Table 5.114. However, commissioning dates within the five charging years under consideration (2008/9 to 2012/13) have been checked against Metered Output and Final Position Notification data to determine the exact commissioning date. Since November there have been a number of changes to the generation background. Appropriate changes have been made to the table of specific draft ALFs. Consequently, there are no longer any biomass power stations commissioning in this period and so the generic ALF for this technology has been removed. 3 http://www2.nationalgrid.com/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=24906 4 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-chapter-5-digest-of-united-kingdom- energy-statistics-dukes 4 3 Specific Draft Annual Load Factors Table 1 shows specific draft ALFs for each power station expected to incur Generator Transmission Network Use of System Charges during 2014/15. The methodology used to calculate these is summarised in Appendix A. Table 1 Power Station Aberthaw Achruach Wind Farm Aigas An Suidhe Wind Farm Arecleoch Baglan Bay Barking Barrow Offshore Wind Farm Barry Power Station Black Law Brigg Enfield Carraig Gheal Wind Farm Carrington Power Station Clunie Clyde (North) Clyde (South) Connahs Quay Corby Coryton Cottam CDCL Cowes Cruachan Crystal Rig 2 Culligran Damhead Creek Deanie Deeside Dersalloch Didcot B Dinorwig Drax Dungeness B Dunlaw Extension Edinbane Wind Ewe Hill Eggborough Errochty Fallago Farr Wind Farm, Tomatin Fasnakyle Fawley Specific ALF 49.8011% 34.3151% 28.8524% 31.1243% 31.5330% 42.9466% 51.5494% 42.8802% 24.9253% 23.5301% 16.8962% 58.4627% 32.8076% 63.1254% 34.8904% 26.9795% 22.6957% 49.7752% 22.8437% 64.4106% 61.8678% 60.7867% 0.2184% 12.8457% 39.3191% 28.8524% 80.4315% 28.8524% 51.7370% 34.3151% 60.7220% 15.5970% 80.6044% 37.3658% 34.9285% 37.0971% 34.3151% 44.5431% 16.9493% 33.8663% 34.9986% 27.9503% 0.3473% 5 Power Station Fawley CHP Ferrybridge Ffestiniog Fiddlers Ferry Finlarig Foyers Glendoe Glenmoriston Gordonbush Wind Grain BP Grangemouth Great Yarmouth Greater Gabbard Offshore Wind Farm Griffin Wind Farm Gunfleet Sands Offshore Wind Farm Gunfleet Sands II Offshore Wind Farm Gwynt Y Mor Offshore Wind Farm Hadyard Hill Harestanes Hartlepool Heysham Power Station Hinkley Point B Humber Gateway Offshore Wind Farm Hunterston Immingham Indian Queens Invergarry Ironbridge Keadby Kilbraur Killingholme 2 (Centrica) Killingholme (Eon) Kilmorack Langage Lincs Offshore Wind Farm Little Barford Littlebrook Lochay Lochluichart London Array Longannet Luichart Marchwood Mark Hill Wind Farm Medway Power Station Millennium Wind Mossford Nant Ormonde Offshore Wind Farm Orrin Pembroke Power Station Specific ALF 67.7940% 39.1076% 3.3999% 45.2317% 48.4286% 16.4781% 8.6721% 39.8364% 34.5574% 17.0656% 62.5601% 62.8454% 29.0801% 22.0106% 38.5634% 36.9738% 27.2330% 28.6374% 34.3151% 75.8457% 74.5820% 56.2027% 38.7844% 71.9543% 61.1425% 1.3465% 48.2159% 13.3327% 58.7586% 42.0061% 25.3258% 32.0424% 28.8524% 58.9046% 31.4268% 52.4152% 0.3172% 36.7481% 34.3151% 36.8234% 47.4635% 49.5378% 70.3361% 29.7583% 38.5007% 42.3973% 49.5378% 24.2229% 41.1574% 49.5378% 57.2218% 6 Power Station Peterborough Peterhead Quoich Ratcliffe on Soar Robin Rigg East Robin Rigg West Rocksavage Rugeley Rye House Saltend Seabank Sellafield Severn Power Sheringham Shoal Offshore Windfarm Shoreham Sizewell B Sloy South Humberbank Spalding Staythorpe C Sutton Bridge Taylors Lane Thanet Offshore Windfarm Toddleburn Wind Farm Torness Walney I Offshore Wind Farm Walney II Offshore Wind Farm West Burton A West Burton B West of Duddon Sands Offshore Wind Farm Westermost Rough Whitelee Whitelee Extension Wilton Wylfa Specific ALF 15.3462% 57.9351% 48.2159% 57.4270% 35.9220% 36.8231% 47.7745% 52.6785% 42.7532% 89.7591% 55.4754% 22.0714% 39.1019% 30.4724% 69.0820% 85.1800% 10.3498% 57.0565% 65.6849% 54.7260% 60.4887% 0.2514% 35.1276% 33.2962% 85.8904% 40.4477% 39.7298% 49.0530% 50.2665% 38.7844% 38.7844% 26.9403% 23.7021% 25.4458% 72.3843% 7 4 Generic Draft Annual Load Factors Generation technologies and associated generic draft ALFs are shown in Table 2. The methodology for calculating these is summarised in Appendix B. Generic draft ALFs have been used to set specific draft ALFs for power stations with no or limited historical data, including power stations commissioning during 2013/14 and 2014/15. Table 2 Technology Oil_and_OCGT Pumped_Storage Hydro Onshore_Wind Offshore_Wind Coal CCGT_and_CHP Nuclear Generic ALF 0.5941% 12.0802% 33.2711% 34.3151% 38.7844% 42.9017% 63.1254% 67.9035% Intermittent/ Conventional Conventional Conventional Conventional Intermittent Intermittent Conventional Conventional Conventional 8 Carbon/Low Carbon Carbon Carbon Low Carbon Low Carbon Low Carbon Carbon Carbon Low Carbon 5 Next Steps Draft TNUoS tariffs for 2014/15 will be published by 25 December 2013. If direction is given to implement CMP213 with effect from 1 April 2014 then we propose to use the ALFs stated in this document, accounting for any changes resulting through subsequent bi-lateral discussions with customers, to set TNUoS charges for 2014/15. To that end, where customers have a query regarding their specific ALFs they are requested to contact National Grid as soon as possible and by 17 January 2014 at the latest. Final tariffs for 2014/15 will be published at the end of January 2014. If direction is given to implement CMP213 with effect from 1 April 2014 then the final ALFs used to set charges will be published at the same time. 6 Comments & Feedback Comments & Feedback As part of our commitment to customers National Grid welcomes comments and feedback on the information contained in this statement. In particular, to ensure that information is provided and presented in a way that is of most use to customers, we would welcome specific feedback on: The level of numeric detail provided to explain the load factors; The quality of the explanation given; Information that is not useful and could be omitted; and Information that is missing that could be added. These should be sent to: Damian Clough [email protected] National Grid Warwick Technology Park Warwick CV34 6DA 01926 656416 10 Appendix A – Calculation of Specific Annual Load Factors ALFs have been calculated for each generator using historical Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC), Metered Flows (MF) and Final Position Notifications (FPN) from the five most recent complete charging years, i.e. 2008/9 to 2012/13 inclusive. No historical or forecast data for 2013/14 has been used. ALFs are calculated at power station level. Therefore for a power station with multiple Balancing Mechanism Units (BMU) representing generating sets and station demand, the BMU are aggregated before calculating the ALF. Cascade hydro schemes may have multiple power stations included in a BMU. For these the ALF is calculated at scheme level by aggregating stations and their associated BMU before calculating the ALF. The scheme level ALF is applied to each station in the scheme. There are 17,520 half hour periods in a charging year (17,568 for 2011/12 due to the leap year). In each half hour the metered flow (MF) and Final Position Notification (FPN) of the generator are compared and the higher of the two used. If both MF and FPN are negative, i.e. the station has net demand then zero is used. The ‘higher of’ is summated over all the half hours in the charging year to give the numerator for that charging year in kWh. The denominator for a charging year is the sum of the Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) in each half hour divided by two to give kWh consistent with the numerator. TEC is contracted on a daily basis so each half hour of a day has the same TEC and changes in TEC take place at midnight. The load factor for a year is the numerator divided by the denominator. A load factor is calculated for each charging year. This is summarised in the following diagram. < - - - - - - - - - - Charging Years used to set ALF - - - - - - - - - - > 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17568HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH ÷ ÷ ÷ ÷ ÷ Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17568HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH = = = = = 2008/09 ALF 2009/10 ALF 2010/11 ALF 2011/12 ALF 2012/13 ALF 11 ALF Calc. (Now) ALF Applicable 2013/14 2014/15 Where there are five complete charging years of data the two years with highest and lowest load factor are excluded and the ALF is the average of the remaining three years. In the following example the highest ALF was in 2008/9 and the lowest ALF in 2010/11 but in practice they could be any of the five years and will vary by Station or Hydro Scheme. < - - - - - - - - - - Charging Years used to set ALF - - - - - - - - - - > { 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17568HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH ÷ ÷ ÷ ÷ ÷ Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17568HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH = = = = = 2008/09 ALF 2009/10 ALF 2010/11 ALF 2011/12 ALF 2012/13 ALF Highest ALF Calc. (Now) ALF Applicable 2013/14 2014/15 } ALF = Average of remaining three Lowest Where there are only four complete charging years of data, the year with the lowest load factor is excluded and the ALF is the average of the remaining three years. < - - - - - - - - - - Charging Years used to set ALF - - - - - - - - - - > 2008/09 { 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17568HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH ÷ ÷ ÷ ÷ Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17568HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH = = = = 2009/10 ALF 2010/11 ALF 2011/12 ALF 2012/13 ALF Lowest 12 ALF Calc. (Now) ALF Applicable 2013/14 2014/15 } ALF = Average of remaining three Where there are three complete charging years of data the ALF is the average load factor of those three years. < - - - - - - - - - - Charging Years used to set ALF - - - - - - - - - - > 2008/09 { 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17568HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH ÷ ÷ ÷ Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH Sum TEC/2 over 17568HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH = = = 2010/11 ALF 2011/12 ALF 2012/13 ALF 13 ALF Calc. (Now) ALF Applicable 2013/14 2014/15 } ALF = Average of three Where there are less than three complete charging years of data the ALF is the average of three years load factors calculated as follows: • For complete years of data the load factor is calculated as above. • For years with no data the generic load factor for the station’s technology type is used. • For years during which a power station commissioned or decommissioned, a partial year load factor is calculated for the period the station was commissioned and a generic load factor used for the remainder. The load factor for that year is then the average of the partial and generic load factors weighted by the number of half hours. Partial Year Full Year ALF Calc. (Now) ALF Applicable 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Generic ALF Generic ALF Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over avail. HH Max (Metered, FPN, 0) summed over 17520HH ÷ ÷ Sum TEC/2 over avail. HH Sum TEC/2 over 17520HH = = 2011/12 Partial ALF 2012/13 ALF } ALF = Average of three { { No data Weighted by number of HH Where a customer demonstrates that the power station has been repowered with a different technology, data prior to the re-powering relates to the old technology and may be discarded. Where this leaves less than three years of data available the generic load factor for the new technology will be used prior to the re-powering. 14 Appendix B – Calculation of Generic Annual Load Factors Generic ALFs are the average of the ten most recently commissioned power stations of that type with five complete charging years of data. Where less than ten power stations meet this requirement other stations with four or less years of data have been included. Where stations share the same commissioning year and have the same number of years’ data then they have all been included in the calculation, i.e. more than ten stations included. Power station plant types have been identified using the Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics 2013 Table 5.11 from the Department of Energy & Climate Change website5. 5 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-chapter-5-digest-of-united-kingdom- energy-statistics-dukes 15
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