AUSTRALIA
Growing Areas: Winter Wheat
Though much of the continent had a wet summer, deficits in the southwest, a prime wheat region
delayed planting. Rains arrived by early winter (June) timely for planting in the southwest. You can see
recent rains have now brought a small surplus in Perth and reduced annual deficits to just 4.8 inches.
Meanwhile some dryness has developed in the east. Cooler than normal to normal temperatures this
autumn and winter has helped maintain soil moisture.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia cut by 700,000 tonnes to 23.5m tonnes its forecast for Australia's
2011-12 wheat crop, citing the dry conditions which mean "yield penalties are already likely to have
occurred in many" eastern regions.
The state of New South Wales bore the brunt of the downgrade, with lower expectations for Victoria
and Queensland too, partly offset by raised hopes for Western Australia, where increased rainfall has
improved "markedly" prospects for winter crops.
The CBA revision implies a decline of 2.8m tonnes, or more than 10%, in the country's wheat
production this year, and is considerably more pessimistic than forecasts from many other analysts.
Abares estimates the 2011-12 harvest at 26.2m tonnes, with the US Department of Agriculture
pegging the crop at 25.0m tonnes .
In Queensland, much above normal (over 200%) rainfall the last year maintains decent sub soil moisture
but short term deficits have developed. The dryness across northern New South
Wales and southern Queensland, further reducing moisture supplies for vegetative winter wheat.
Annual graph shows a surplus remains.
Deficits are also seen in the east in parts of Victoria and New South Wales. At Wagga, deficits stand at
1.7 inches after recent showers. They are coming off a wet year.
Rains the last two weeks have aided early wheat development. The next two weeks will be showery in
West Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales with lighter rains reaching into
Queensland.
The CFS model in the Forecast Model section suggests normal to above normal rains west and south but
slightly below normal rainfall in Queensland in August/September/Octobereven as La Nina returns.
The April to June time frame was the coldest in Australia since at least 1950.
The CFS also predicts colder than normal temperatures to return southwest and northeast.
Analog composites support this overall near normal precipitation and the cooler than normal especially
north and warmer south winter temperature picture.
Good winter wheat yields from Australia, the number 5 producer, and Russia, number 4, will be needed
to offset the losses in some other locales like the US and EU. It appears given antecedent and forecast
conditions, Australia will produce a good crop in 2011/12.