Timing of breeding area arrival is crucial for migratory birds to profit from the summer peak in food availability, thereby optimizing their reproductive output (Both et al. 2006). As consistent patterns of earlier arrival to their northern Europe breeding areas have been found ( Thorup et al. 2007), a number of questions arise: what factors drive these changes and which cues do the migrants use to determine optimal arrival? In fact, we know little about which climatic variables affect migrants during different seasons and phases of the migration cycle (Stenseth & Mysterud 2005). Timing of spring migration can be affected by environmental conditions in two ways. The first occurs prior to departure from wintering areas where ecological conditions can affect individuals’ physiology, e.g. body condition (Ottosson et al. 2005). The second occurs during the migration period, where improved ecological conditions at stopover sites with an abundance of food can reduce the time required to replenish fuel stores (Ahola et al. 2004). Recently, Jonzén et al. (2006) showed that longdistance migrants have advanced their passage through Italy, making the journey earlier in the season, and argued that this trend is the result of a climate-driven evolutionary change. However, Both (2007) argued that this trend might be caused by improved environmental conditions in the wintering areas, or en route, while Gienapp et al. (2007) found no evidence to support or disprove either an evolutionary or plastic response. Our objective is to assess the average relationship between timing of migration at different latitudes for several species of long-distance Palaearctic migrants in the eastern and the central Mediterranean flyways, and to analyse changes in the duration of migratory periods relative to environmental conditions, both in wintering areas and en route towards breeding areas. Biol. Lett. (2008) 4, 685–688 doi:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0290 Published online 12 August 2008 Global change biology Avian migrants adjust migration in response to environmental conditions en route Anders P. Tøttrup1,*, Kasper Thorup1,2, Kalle Rainio3, Reuven Yosef 4, Esa Lehikoinen3 and Carsten Rahbek1 1 Center for Macroecology and Evolution, Department of Biology, and Zoological Museum, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark 3 Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014 Turku, Finland 4 International Birding and Research Centre, PO Box 774, Eilat 88106, Israel *Author for correspondence ([email protected]). 2 The onset of migration in birds is assumed to be primarily under endogenous control in longdistance migrants. Recently, climate changes appear to have been driving a rapid change in breeding area arrival. However, little is known about the climatic factors affecting migratory birds during the migration cycle, or whether recently reported phenological changes are caused by plastic behavioural responses or evolutionary change. Here, we investigate how environmental conditions in the wintering areas as well as en route towards breeding areas affect timing of migration. Using data from 1984 to 2004 covering the entire migration period every year from observatories located in the Middle East and northern Europe, we show that passage of the Sahara Desert is delayed and correlated with improved conditions in the wintering areas. By contrast, migrants travel more rapidly through Europe, and adjust their breeding area arrival time in response to improved environmental conditions en route. Previous studies have reported opposing results from a different migration route through the Mediterranean region (Italy). We argue that the simplest explanation for different phenological patterns at different latitudes and between migratory routes appears to be phenotypic responses to spatial variability in conditions en route. 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS We used standardized ringing data on five long-distance migratory species trapped en route from African wintering areas through the Middle East (Israel) and just before arrival at their breeding areas in northern Europe (Finland) during the period 1984–2004. Timing of migration was analysed for three population measures (first 5, 50 and 95% of the spring total), subsequently referred to as ‘migration phases’. Migration duration is defined as the difference in passage dates between the Middle East and northern Europe for each migration phase. We used the monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI ) for the period 1984–2000 as a proxy measure for the actual ecological conditions (e.g. food availability; Pettorelli et al. 2005) in the species-specific wintering areas ( Wisz et al. 2007) prior to departure (February/March) and the area in Europe traversed prior to arrival at the breeding areas (April/May; figure 1). The African spring NDVI and the European spring NDVI were then related to our phenological results in the Middle East and northern Europe, respectively (electronic supplementary material, methods). We conducted two complementary analyses that have similar findings, thus reported together in §3. First, we fitted models for each species and migration phase, estimating changes in the timing of migration, the effect of NDVI on the timing of migration as well as the effect of NDVI on migration duration through Europe. Second, we fitted linear mixed models including all independent variables as fixed variables and their interactions as well as the three phases of migration as a repeated factor. Our data include observations of three phases of migration over 21 years from five species at two locations, in total 630 observations (electronic supplementary material, methods). Finally, we relate our results and results published by Jonzén et al. (2006) to NDVI in the eastern and western flyways between Africa and Europe, to investigate whether migrants following the two flyways experienced differently changing NDVI over time. This included comparing changes in: (i) African winter NDVI Keywords: birds; migration; phenology; climate change; normalized difference vegetation index 1. INTRODUCTION Migration phenology in long-distance avian migrants is assumed to be controlled by endogenous rhythms (Berthold 1996) with some degree of plasticity in the migratory programme (Biebach et al. 1986). In the Northern Hemisphere, spring temperatures have increased during the past decades affecting, among others, species’ physiology, breeding ranges and phenology (Walther et al. 2002). Electronic supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0290 or via http://journals.royalsociety.org. Received 27 May 2008 Accepted 22 July 2008 685 This journal is q 2008 The Royal Society 686 A. P. Tøttrup et al. Migration phenology in avian migrants western flyway eastern flyway Europe en route Fi sub-Saharan Africa wintering area Is northern Africa en route It phenology later passage vegetation improved conditions earlier passage deteriorated conditions Figure 1. Schematic of changes in the timing of migration for five long-distance migratory birds during the period 1984–2004 (red boxes) and changes in environmental conditions (NDVI ) for the period 1984–2000 (green boxes) in the wintering areas and en route for the two major flyways (blue arrows) between Africa and Europe. Green areas were analysed for environmental conditions (NDVI ) and the three ringing stations are indicated (Fi, Finland; It, Italy; Is, Israel). Phenological data on the western flyway are from Jonzén et al. (2006). (December–February) over time in the species-specific wintering areas in western and eastern Africa (electronic supplementary material, figure 1), (ii) NDVI along the central North African and northeastern African flyways (March), and (iii) European spring NDVI between western and eastern European flyways (April; figure 1). 3. RESULTS For the five long-distance migratory birds, we found different trends in the timing of migration at different latitudes (interaction term; latitude!year: p!0.0001, FZ16.3, d.f.Z1). Figure 2a shows delayed passage through the Middle East when compared with little phenological change in northern Europe. The difference was most clear for the portion of the populations that arrive early, apparently decreasing towards no overall difference between latitudes for the portion of the populations that arrive late (latitude! year!migration phase: pZ0.004, FZ5.52, d.f.Z2). The species showed different trends in the timing of migration (year!species: pZ0.004, FZ3.93, d.f.Z4), most likely caused by different migration strategies. Overall, NDVI affects the timing of migration differently at different latitudes (latitude!NDVI: pZ0.006, FZ7.76, d.f.Z1). Figure 2b shows that, in all phases of migration, high African spring NDVI delays passage, and for the first phases of migration, the European spring NDVI correlated with earlier passage in northern Europe. When included in the same model, both year and NDVI correlated well with the phenological patterns, suggesting a causal Biol. Lett. (2008) relationship with spring advancement. Furthermore, advanced European spring NDVI seems to cause a shorter migration duration in the first phases of migration (5 and 50%; figure 2c) and the overall analysis indicates more rapid migration in years with high European spring NDVI (NDVI: pZ0.024, FZ5.21, d.f.Z1; electronic supplementary material, table 1). Excluding whitethroat from the analyses, the species showing the most westerly ring recoveries (electronic supplementary material, figure 2) did not change the results. The African winter NDVI increased significantly in both western and eastern Africa (west: 0.013G 0.001 unit NDVI per year; east: 0.007G0.002 unit NDVI per year). In central and northeastern North Africa, NDVI showed no change over time (central: pZ0.37, tZ0.93, R 2Z0.05; northeastern: pZ0.60, tZK0.52, R 2Z0.02). Finally, the European spring NDVI increased equally throughout the period in western Europe (slope: 0.005 unit NDVI per year, R 2Z0.28, pZ0.02) and eastern Europe (slope: 0.006 unit NDVI per year, R 2Z0.32, pZ0.01; slopes not significantly different: pO0.1, tZ1.58, d.f.Z34; figure 1). 4. DISCUSSION During a period of improving conditions in the wintering areas, five species of long-distance migratory birds showed overall delayed spring passage of the Sahara Desert. This indicates a delayed onset Migration phenology in avian migrants A. P. Tøttrup et al. (i) (ii) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 – 0.2 – 0.4 – 0.6 – 0.8 (b) 200 effect of NDVI on passage (days per unit NDVI) change over time (d yr –1) (a) 160 120 80 40 0 – 40 – 80 effect of European spring NDVI on migration duration (days per unit NDVI) (c) 140 100 60 20 –20 – 60 –100 –140 –180 –220 5% 50% 95% 5% 50% 95% Figure 2. Species-specific changes in the timing of three phases of spring migration (first 5, 50 and 95% of the spring total) in five species of long-distance migratory birds (lesser whitethroat (triangles), whitethroat (squares), blackcap (circles), chiffchaff (diamonds) and willow warbler (plus symbols)) when passing the Middle East (filled symbols) and northern Europe (empty symbols) analysed for: (a) change in passage (d yrK1; 1984–2004); (b) relationship between passage in the Middle East and African spring NDVI as well as passage in northern Europe and European spring NDVI (days per unit NDVI; 1984–2000: positive values indicate later passage); and (c) relationship between change in migration duration and European spring NDVI (days per unit NDVI; 1984–2000: negative values indicate reduced migration duration). The five slope estimates for each phase of migration are based on separate model fits and are hence independent. (i) Individual estimates. (ii) Mean values, where error bars are 95% confidence intervals based onPthe summed sampling variances of each species estimate, ð varðxi ÞÞ !ð1=5Þ2 . of migration. Overall, trends in the timing of migration in the Middle East were different from the trends in northern Europe, commensurate with a reduced migration period, where advantageous conditions reduce travel times during the second part of their migration. These phenological patterns indicate a high degree of phenotypic plasticity in the timing of migration through Europe, with migrants adjusting Biol. Lett. (2008) 687 their timing of migration to the actual conditions en route and thereby optimizing their time of arrival at the breeding areas. In contrast to our results, Jonzén et al. (2006) described an advanced passage of long-distance migrants through Italy during approximately the same time period covered by this study. These contradictory results may have been caused by: (i) improved conditions along the western flyway making the birds migrate faster when compared with the eastern flyway, (ii) a difference in the latitude between the ringing stations: the Italy data may reflect a response to conditions in Europe, and (iii) monitoring of different populations. At least during autumn migration, North European migrants seem to circumvent the ecological barriers of the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea as opposed to crossing them (Fransson et al. 2005). Furthermore, Pilastro et al. (1998) observed that some species of migratory songbirds trapped in Italy had circumvented the Mediterranean Sea. This implies that a large proportion of birds trapped in Italy may belong to southern European populations. Hence, prior to being trapped, the birds had traversed southwestern Europe where environmental conditions improved in contrast to the central North Africa where conditions were more constant (this study). We found small advances in arrival to northeast Europe, which supports the conclusions by Both et al. (2004). Contrary to Gordo et al. (2005), who argued that improved winter conditions cause earlier breeding area arrival, we found delayed initiation of migration with improving winter area conditions. Hence, migrants may benefit from improved conditions in the wintering areas by optimizing the chance of safely passing the Sahara Desert. With delayed onset of migration and advanced conditions en route, the migratory birds have to speed up migration through Europe to take advantage of a climate-induced earlier spring. This supports the study by Marra et al. (2005) showing advanced migration with higher spring temperatures en route through North America. As most birds included in our data are second-year birds (electronic supplementary material, table 2) and hence on their first northward migration, it seems unlikely that the observed patterns result from birds reacting to previously experienced favourable conditions. Data on passing migratory birds are most likely to be from a mixture of populations of different origin, and differences between locations may increase with distance. Hence, different responses by different populations may cause the patterns observed in this and former studies. Also, local weather conditions may cause between-species correlations in data on passing migratory birds (Knape et al. in press), potentially restricting conclusions drawn from phenological studies. Furthermore, different species and even individuals may follow different decision rules (Bowlin et al. 2005) and may not base their decisions during flight and stopover on the progression of vegetation, but rather follow simpler decision rules. Also, using average values of NDVI from large areas can be problematic as NDVI may vary considerably and may even indicate different conditions, e.g. 688 A. P. Tøttrup et al. Migration phenology in avian migrants food availability in Africa and spring advancement in Europe. However, adjustment of migration in response to environmental conditions en route combined with the observed large variation in phenological patterns indicate that at least some degree of phenotypic plasticity control the timing of breeding area arrival. It seems unlikely that the relatively finescale adjustment along the migratory route could be caused by microevolutionary changes. Yet, resolving this question requires analyses of phenology at the onset of spring migration and studies of evolutionary changes within populations. We thank the International Birding and Research Center, Eilat and Jurmo bird observatory for collecting the data, as well as the Finnish Museum of Natural History for ring recovery data, and Niclas Jonzén, Andreas Lindén, Torbjørn Ergon, Christiaan Both and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. Danish NSF ( J. no. 21-03-0221) supported the research. Ahola, M., Laaksonen, T., Sippola, K., Eeva, T., Rainio, K. & Lehikoinen, E. 2004 Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates. Glob. Change Biol. 10, 1610–1617. (doi:10.1111/ j.1365-2486.2004.00823.x) Berthold, P. 1996 Control of bird migration. London, UK: Chapman and Hall. Biebach, H., Friedrich, W. & Heine, G. 1986 Interaction of body mass, fat, foraging and stopover period in transSahara migrating passerine birds. Oecologia 69, 370–379. (doi:10.1007/BF00377059) Both, C. 2007 Comment on “Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds”. Science 315, 598. (doi:10.1126/science.1136148) Both, C. et al. 2004 Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier. Proc. R. Soc. B 271, 1657–1662. (doi:10.1098/rspb. 2004.2770) Both, C., Bouwhuis, S., Lessells, C. M. & Visser, M. E. 2006 Climate change and population declines in a longdistance migratory bird. Nature 441, 81–83. (doi:10. 1038/nature04539) Bowlin, M. S., Cochran, W. W. & Wikelski, M. C. 2005 Biotelemetry of New World thrushes during migration: physiology, energetics and orientation in the wild. Integr. Comp. Biol. 45, 295–304. (doi:10.1093/icb/45.2.295) Fransson, T., Jakobsson, S. & Kullberg, C. 2005 Nonrandom distribution of ring recoveries from transSaharan migrants indicates species-specific stopover areas. J. Avian Biol. 36, 6–11. (doi:10.1111/j.0908-8857. 2005.03471.x) Biol. Lett. (2008) Gienapp, P., Leimu, R. & Merilä, J. 2007 Responses to climate change in avian migration time—microevolution versus phenotypic plasticity. Clim. Res. 35, 25–35. (doi:10.3354/cr00712) Gordo, O., Brotons, L., Ferrer, X. & Comas, P. 2005 Do changes in climate patterns in wintering areas affect the timing of the spring arrival of trans-Saharan migrant birds? Glob. Change Biol. 11, 12–21. (doi:10.1111/ j.1365-2486.2004.00875.x) Jonzén, N. et al. 2006 Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science 312, 1959–1961. (doi:10.1126/science.1126119) Knape, J., Jonzén, N., Sköld, M. & Sokolov, L. In press. Multivariate state space modelling of bird migration count data. In Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Environmental and ecological statistics, vol. 3 (eds D. L. Thomson, E. G. Cooch & M. J. Conroy). Berlin, Germany: Springer. Marra, P. P., Francis, C. M., Mulvihill, R. S. & Moore, F. R. 2005 The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration. Oecologia 142, 307–315. (doi:10.1007/s00442-004-1725-x) Ottosson, U., Waldenström, J., Hjort, C. & McGregor, R. 2005 Garden warbler Sylvia borin migration in sub-Saharan West Africa: phenology and body mass changes. Ibis 147, 750–757. (doi:10.1111/j.1474-919X.2005.00460.x) Pettorelli, N., Vik, J. O., Mysterud, A., Gaillard, J.-M., Tucker, C. J. & Stenseth, N. Chr. 2005 Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20, 503–510. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2005.05.011) Pilastro, A., Macchio, S., Massi, A., Montemaggiori, A. & Spina, F. 1998 Spring migratory routes of eight transSaharan passerines through the central and western Mediterranean; results from a network of insular and coastal ringing sites. Ibis 140, 591–598. (doi:10.1111/ j.1474-919X.1998.tb04704.x) Stenseth, N. C. & Mysterud, A. 2005 Weather packages: finding the right scale and composition of climate in ecology. J. Anim. Ecol. 74, 1195–1198. (doi:10.1111/ j.1365-2656.2005.01005.x) Thorup, K., Tøttrup, A. P. & Rahbek, C. 2007 Patterns of phenological changes in migratory birds. Oecologia 151, 697–703. (doi:10.1007/s00442-006-0608-8) Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J., Fromentin, J. M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Bairlein, F. 2002 Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389–395. (doi:10.1038/416389a) Wisz, M. S., Walther, B. A. & Rahbek, C. 2007 Using potential distributions to explore determinants of western Palaearctic migratory songbird species richness in sub-Saharan Africa. J. Biogeogr. 34, 828–841. (doi:10. 1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01661.x) Supplementary figure 1 (A-E). Species specific wintering areas according to Wisz et al. (2007) for western Africa (red) and eastern Africa (green). For each of these areas, we computed monthly NDVI maximum value composite for the period 1984 to 2000 as a proxy measure for the actual environmental conditions during the winter season (mean NDVI values for the period December to February). (A) Lesser Whitethroat Sylvia curruca D) Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita (B) Whitethroat Sylvia communis (F) Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus (C) Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla Supplementary figure 2. Ring-recoveries of birds ringed at Eilat (29ºN 34ºE; Israel) and in Finland during the years 1984 to 2004 and 1971 to 2001, respectively. Together with recovery maps in Zink (1973) this map confirms that the populations breeding in eastern Fennoscandia migrate via the Middle East to and from their wintering areas in tropical Africa. Circles indicate recoveries of all birds ringed in Eilat and diamonds are all birds ringed in Finland and recovered abroad during spring migration through Europe. Blue symbols represent Lesser Whitethroats Sylvia curruca, red are Whitethroats Sylvia communis, black are Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla, green are Chiffchaffs Phylloscopus collybita and yellow symbols are Willow Warblers Phylloscopus trochilus. Supplementary table 1. (A) The effect on timing of migration when including ‘Latitude’ (Eilat, Middle East and Jurmo, northern Europe), ‘Year’ (1984 – 2004) and ’Species’ (see the text) and all three ’Migration phases’ (first 5%, 50% and 95% of the total number of trapped or observed individuals) in a statistical model. We show opposing trends at different latitudes (significant latitude * year interaction) with delayed passage through the Middle East, and advanced arrival in northern Europe (see figure 2A). The results for the two interaction terms: “Latitude*Year” and “Year*Species” reported in the text are slightly different from the results reported below as the higher order significant interaction term “Latitude*Year*Migration phase” has been removed from the models reported in the text. (B) The effect on timing of migration in the Middle East and northern Europe including latitude, year, species, and all three migration phases, as well as African spring NDVI (in relation to Middle East passage) and European spring NDVI (in relation to northern Europe passage) in a statistical model. We show opposing effects of NDVI at different latitudes (significant latitude * NDVI interaction) (see figure 2B). (C) Effect on migration duration through Europe (number of days between the Middle East and northern Europe for the 50% migration phase) when including species, European spring NDVI and all three migration phases in a statistical model. We show an overall significant effect of NDVI on migration duration, with better conditions decreasing migration duration. All models were fitted as statistical models including all independent variables and their interactions, using linear mixed models (proc MIXED; SAS 2000) and with migration phase as the repeated factor. We performed backward elimination procedures removing all insignificant variables except when higher-level interaction was significant. A B Parameter Timing of migration Latitude Year Species Migration phase Latitude * Year Latitude * Species Latitude * Migration phase Year * Species Year * Migration phase Species * Migration phase Latitude * Year * Migration phase Error Timing of migration Latitude Year Migration phase NDVI Species Latitude * Migration phase Latitude * Year Latitude * NDVI Latitude * Species Year * Migration phase Migration phase * NDVI Migration phase * Species Year * NDVI df F P 1 1 4 2 1 4 2 4 2 8 2 550 16.13 4.58 3.89 0.51 16.12 0.01 5.52 3.89 0.51 0.00 5.52 < 0.0001 0.0329 0.0040 0.6000 < 0.0001 0.9999 0.0042 0.0040 0.5999 1.0000 0.0042 1 1 2 1 4 2 1 1 4 2 2 8 1 0.21 3.68 0.72 0.98 1.96 3.77 0.21 7.76 0.00 0.72 0.89 0.00 0.99 0.6443 0.0559 0.4874 0.3217 0.1000 0.0238 0.6439 0.0056 1.0000 0.4874 0.4107 1.0000 0.3207 C Year * Species Latitude * Year * Migration phase Error 2 2 441 3.77 3.77 0.0999 0.0237 Migration duration Species Migration phase Species * Migration phase NDVI Error 4 2 8 1 188 87.08 27.56 6.64 5.21 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 0.0236 Supplementary table 2. Changes in timing of migration (in days year-1) for three phases of spring migration (when the first 5, 50 and 95% of the spring total had been caught or observed each year) in five long-distance passerine migrants when passing the Middle East (Eilat, Israel 29ºN 34ºE; Tryjanowski and Yosef (2002)) and prior to breeding area arrival in northern Europe (Jurmo, Finland 60ºN 22ºE; Vähätalo et al. 2004) during a 21 year period (1984 to 2004). Positive values indicate delayed arrival while negative values indicate advanced arrival. Significant changes where identified using linear regression analyses (* = P < 0.05). Number of years and number of birds (N) included in the analyses from each site as well as the overall mean arrival date and mean migration speed (km/day) for the 50% migration phase (mMS: the distance (3650 km) divided by the number of days used between the Middle East and northern Europe) and percentages of second-year birds (2.yr%) in the total number of birds trapped for the three species where ageing is possible are also presented. Species Middle East Lesser Whitethroat Sylvia curruca Whitethroat Sylvia communis Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus Northern Europe Lesser Whitethroat Sylvia curruca Whitethroat Sylvia communis Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus Years N Mean mMS 2.yr% 5% 50% 95% 0.07 0.59 * 0.02 0.55 0.54 18 16 20 19 15 17,542 2,352 30,035 10,466 793 31-Mar 30-Mar 20-Apr 11-Mar 27-Apr 71 62 111 68 141 68 66 69 0.18 0.59 0.28 0.08 -0.20 0.52 * 0.63 * 0.50 0.67 * -0.20 21 21 21 21 21 9,747 7,659 5,082 2,005 32,473 22-May 28-May 23-May 04-May 22-May - 74 73 90 -0.27 -0.32 -0.49 -0.09 -0.20 -0.18 0.06 -0.21 -0.15 -0.18 0.11 0.26 0.02 0.45 -0.02 Supplementary methods Detailed description of the data and the statistics used. Ringing data We included standardised ringing data from daily mist-netting of migratory songbirds collected during spring migration in the period 1984 to 2004 at observatories located en route through the Middle East (Eilat, Israel 29ºN 34ºE; Tryjanowski & Yosef (2002)) and prior to arrival at their breeding areas in northern Europe (Jurmo, Finland 60ºN 22ºE; Ahola et al. (2004)). For Jurmo observatory, we also included observations from standardised counts (see Vähätalo et al. 2004). Only species where a minimum of 20 individuals were trapped or observed per season for a minimum of 15 years at each locations were included. The five species of long-distance migrants satisfying these criteria all winter in sub-Saharan Africa (see supplementary table 1 and figure 2). Climate data The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) offers a fully comparable measure of net primary productivity and indirectly a measure of ecological conditions (e.g. food availability) between regions and years (Pettorelli et al. 2005). NDVI is calculated as the normalised difference in reflectance obtained by an Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor of NOAA polar orbiting satellites. The index is a measure of the degree of absorption by chlorophyll in red wavelengths which is proportional to leaf chlorophyll density and provided by Clark Labs as monthly NDVI maximum value composite taken from AVHRR data. Accordingly, we used monthly NDVI maximum value composite for the period 1984 to 2000 as a proxy measure for the actual environmental conditions in the wintering areas (after Wisz et al. 2007; see supplementary figure 2 a-e) prior to onset of migration (African spring NDVI: mean NDVI values of February and March) as well as in the areas traversed prior to arrival at the breeding areas (European spring NDVI: mean NDVI values of April and May). Time periods are defined so they reflect the general phenology of the species’. Statistics We tested the relationships presented in figure 2 for the two response variables (passage day and migration duration) by fitting ‘Latitude’, ‘Year’, and ‘Species’ as fixed variables and ‘Migration phase’ as a repeated factor in linear mixed models (proc MIXED; SAS 2000) We performed backward elimination procedures on statistical models including all independent variables and their interactions removing insignificant variables except when higher-level interaction was significant. First, we investigated the effect of ‘Latitude’ (two location: Eilat, Middle East and Jurmo, northern Europe), ‘Year’ (1984 – 2004), ‘Species’ (five species; see the text) and ‘Migration phase’ (first 5%, 50% and 95% of the total number of trapped or observed individuals) on timing of migration in the Middle East and northern Europe. Arrival days were standardised to mean zero. Second, we tested the effect of ’Latitude’, ‘Year’, ‘Species’ as well as African spring NDVI and European spring NDVI on timing of migration in the Middle East and in northern Europe, respectively. Arrival days and NDVI values were standardised to mean zero. Fitting a simple model including only ‘Latitude’, ‘Year’ and ‘NDVI’ without interaction resulted in significant values of both year and NDVI. Third, we analysed the effect of species, migration phase and European spring NDVI on migration duration through Europe (number of days between the Middle East and northern Europe). For each model, goodness of fit was confirmed by visual inspection of plots of residuals against predicted values. Supplemental references Ahola, M., Laaksonen, T., Sippola, K., Eeva, T., Rainio, K. & Lehikoinen, E. 2004 Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates. Global Change Biol. 10, 1610-1617. Pettorelli, N., Vik, J. O., Mysterud, A., Gaillard, J. M., Tucker, C. J. & Stenseth, N. C. 2005 Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20, 503-510. SAS 2000 SAS version 8.02. SAS Institute Inc., Cary, USA. Tryjanowski, P. & Yosef, R. 2002 Differences between the spring and autumn migration of the redbacked Shrike Lanius collurio: record from the Eilat stopover (Israel). Acta Ornithologica 37, 8590. Vähätalo, A. V., Rainio, K., Lehikoinen, A. & Lehikoinen, E. 2004 Spring arrival of birds depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Avian Biol. 35, 210-216. Wisz, M. S., Walther, B. A. & Rahbek, C. 2007 Using potential distributions to explore determinants of Western Palaearctic migratory songbird species richness in sub-Saharan Africa. J. Biogeography 34, 828-841. Zink, G. 1973 Der Zug europäischer Singvögel vol. 1. Möggingen: Vogelzug-Verlag.
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz