ANALYSIS OF YOUNG VOTERS IN THE 2008 ELECTION
These days, everyone is talking about the youth vote. Following close presidential elections in
2000 and 2004, both political parties are turning to this demographic in an effort to increase
historically low youth turnout, with the hope that this increase might help them carry the
election. Sen. Barack Obama’s message and idealism seem to have appealed to young
voters, noticeably increasing mobilization and involvement among them.i It remains to be seen
whether this enthusiasm will carry over to the election and make 2008 the year the youth vote
counted, or whether previous trends will continue among young voters.
1972 is the year to match or even beat for the youth vote.
This was the first election that occurred after the passage of
the 26th Amendment, which extended the right to vote to 18year-olds.ii Whether due to the novelty or the increasing
opposition to the Vietnam War and the draft, an impressive
55% of possible 18 to 29-year-old voters turned out to the
polls that year.iii This figure has yet to be matched.
In the years since 1972, the youth vote has lost its power,
with a majority of eligible young people voting only in the
1992 election. Midterm elections rarely see a young voter
turnout surpassing 25%.iv Young people with the
opportunity to vote for the first time have been increasingly
unlikely to vote as well, with only 28% voting in the 2000
presidential election.v In some ways, young voter turnout
mirrors and exaggerates trends among the general
population; turnout for voters overall has been in decline
until recently and dipped to its lowest point in the 1996 and
2000 elections.vi Overall, trends indicate that young voters
are more likely to turn out during a presidential election,
more likely to be Democrats, and less likely to vote than
older voters.vii
Despite increases in youth turnout in 2004,viii 18 to 24-yearolds were the only demographic with a turnout rate lower
than 50%; individuals above the age of 35 had a turnout rate
of more than 64%.ix In the United States, the older you are, the more likely you are to vote,
with even the 25 to 29-year-old demographic consistently more likely to vote than 18 to 24year-olds.
Source: Center for Information and Research
on Civic Learning and Engagement
The increased youth turnout in the 2004 presidential election and in the 2006 midterm election
may signal a long-term shift in voting trends. In 2004, voting by individuals under 30 years of
1
age rose by almost 10%, a significant increase. x The primary elections of 2008 saw a record
number of young people going to the polls as well. Six and a half million voters under 30 went
to the polls, almost doubling the previous national youth turnout rate.xi Sixteen states
witnessed a rise in young voters, with many experiencing drastic increases.xii Voter
registration rolls have swelled with new registrants.
As the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement’s “Wrap-Up of
2008 Primary Youth Vote” report notes, the increase in primary turnout by young voters is in
line with the trend observed in previous presidential and congressional general elections.xiii In
addition, young people themselves see this election as a turning point; a CBS/ MTV poll noted
that 31% of young people said they will have as much or more influence over who the next
president will be than older voters. This number is up from 17% in 2007.xiv With the trend
continuing, and candidates specifically engaging young people, members of the millennial
generation are on target for another record turnout on Nov. 4.
Coming out of the primaries, the economy was far and away the most important issue for
young people. A Harvard Institute of Politics poll found that 39% of 18 to 24-year-olds ranked
the economy as the most important issue. The next most important issue, the war in Iraq,
garnered 15% of the answer.xv A CBS/ MTV poll conducted during the primaries also showed
the economy as the top issue. Surprisingly, at that time, young people thought that the
candidates’ positions on the economy were fairly clear, but they wanted to hear more about the
candidates’ positions on the war in Iraq.xvi
In the months since the primaries, the economy has continued to be the top concern of young
people. The most recent Harvard Institute of Politics poll found that the economy is 10 times
more important to young people today than it was a year ago. In this poll, 53% of young
people said economic issues were their top concern, compared to 5% in the fall of 2007.xvii
The war in Iraq was named as a top issue by only 9% of young people. In the October USA
Today/ Gallup survey of 18 to 29-year-olds, 89% said that how the candidates planned to deal
with the economic crisis was extremely or very important to them.
Today, 69% of 18 to 24-year-olds, or 7 in 10, say that political engagement is an effective way
of solving our nation’s problems, and fewer than 28% say that politics is not relevant to their
lives.xviii Current polls claim that 56% of 18 to 24-year-olds definitely plan to vote in the 2008
election.xix Should these numbers prove true on Election Day, this would be the largest youth
turnout since 1972, when the voting age was lowered to 18.xx These polls, conducted by USA
Today, Gallup, and MTV, with input by students at American University, seek to further explore
the issues important to young people, the methods and media they find engaging, and the
candidates they are supporting. Should young voter turnout indeed dramatically increase, it is
certain that these methods and issues will become increasingly important in future elections.
2
The Horserace
Obama Holds 20-Point Lead Among Young Voters
In the poll conducted by USA Today/Gallup from Oct. 13-19, Sen. Barack Obama led Sen.
John McCain 58%-38% among young voters. While Obama’s numbers are virtually
unchanged since the poll of young voters conducted by USA Today/Gallup for MTV from Sept.
18-28, McCain has made some gains even as Obama maintains a clear advantage. With less
than two weeks left until Election Day, McCain would have to substantially increase the rate at
which he converts young voters to support his candidacy in order to simply tie Obama in the
young voter category.
2008 Presidential Election Polling of Young Voters
Sept. 18-28
Oct. 13-19
Barack Obama
61%
58%
John McCain
32%
38%
Other (VOL)
1%
1%
DK
5%
*Margin of error for the Sept. poll was +/- 5%.
*Margin of error for the Oct. poll was +/- 4.5%.
3%
Among specific demographic groups, Obama appears to be leading in a few key areas, with
women supporting him over John McCain by a near 2-to-1 margin.
Oct. 13-19 USA Today/Gallup Poll by Gender
Male
Female
Barack Obama
54%
62%
John McCain
43%
33%
Racially, young white voters are evenly split in their support of Obama and McCain, while nonwhites (African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and others) overwhelmingly support Obama.
95% of young African-Americans support Obama and the other 5% said they are leaning in
Obama’s direction.
Oct. 13-19 USA Today/Gallup Poll by Race
White Voters
Non-White Voters
Barack Obama
47%
85%
John McCain
49%
15%
3
The level of education among young voters does not seem to play as large of a role as race or
gender, given that support for the candidates appears relatively consistent across educational
groups.
Oct. 13-19 USA Today/Gallup Poll by Education
College Graduate
Non-College Graduate
Barack Obama
53%
60%
John McCain
43%
37%
How has the importance of religion affected the race thus far?
Evangelicals have been cited as an integral demographic whose support played a significant
role in propelling George W. Bush to the presidency in 2000, and ensured his reelection in
2004. However, this presidential campaign did not produce a candidate from either party that
particularly excited or appealed to Evangelical voters.
Among young voters who responded to a question about the importance of religion in their
daily lives, those who said that religion was an important part of their daily life favored Obama
with 49% over McCain’s 44%. Meanwhile, Obama was favored by a 40-point margin among
those who said religion was not an important part of their daily life.
Among those young voters supporting Barack Obama or John McCain:
Is religion an important part of
your daily life?
Yes
No
Barack Obama
49%
65%
John McCain
45%
24%
How do these findings compare to those over the age of 30?
Support for Barack Obama from those over the age of 30 is comparatively less than support
from 18 to 29-year-old voters. Obama led in all age groups polled from Oct. 13-19, but his
margin was much smaller especially among senior citizens, who split 45% for Obama and 43%
for John McCain. Obama led McCain by 50% to 45% with 30 to 49-year-olds and 52% to 41%
among 50 to 64-year-olds.
Should Obama carry his 20-point advantage among young voters to those voters over the age
of 30, and if there is indeed a strong turnout of young people and African American voters, this
election could be the largest blowout since the presidential election of 1964, when Democratic
incumbent President Lyndon Johnson defeated Republican challenger Barry Goldwater with
60% of the popular vote. However, white voters, blue-collar voters and older voters still show
some concerns about Obama, and they could offset some of these apparent margins in key
swing states.
4
The Issues
What Issues Matter to Young People
In the USA Today/Gallup poll, American University students sought to determine which issues
were most influential and important to young people in deciding how to vote. Of the six issues
examined — the environment, the economy, current military conflicts, health care, job creation,
and tax cuts — the economic crisis was, unsurprisingly, the top issue of importance among
young adults.
Top Six Issues by Importance to Young Voters
Dealing with the economic crisis
Making health care more
available/affordable
Creating jobs for people new to the job
market
Dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan
Protecting the environment/global
warming
Cutting taxes
Extremely
important
50%
Extremely+
Very important
91%
Somewhat+
Not important
9%
40%
81%
19%
39%
82%
18%
36%
74%
24%
32%
67%
33%
26%
63%
36%
All six issues proved to be important decision-influencing factors for young people. More than
60% of respondents claimed that each issue was either extremely or very important in
influencing their vote. Somewhat surprisingly, cutting taxes — a key part of both candidates’
5
economic platforms — polled low on the list of priorities for young people. Only one out of
every four respondents claimed that it would be extremely important in influencing their vote,
and more than one-third of young people said cutting taxes was only somewhat important or
not important at all.
There were interesting demographic differences among the issue priorities as well. Women
found health care and the environment more influential to their vote than men; conservatives
felt that the environment was less likely to influence their vote; and individuals with less
education were the most concerned about the job market. An equally interesting result of this
survey was the difference between genders in their reaction to the U.S. military conflicts. 44%
of young women compared to 29% of young men said that dealing with the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan was extremely important to them.
Which Candidate Would Handle the Issues Better?
Young people were then asked which candidate they felt would do a better job in handling
each of the six issues. Obama held an advantage over McCain on every issue, though the
size of that advantage varied from question to question.
Which Candidate Would Do a Better Job
Making health care more
available/affordable
Protecting the environment/global
warming
Creating jobs for people new to the job
market
Dealing with the economic crisis
Cutting taxes
Dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan
Obama
McCain
68%
24%
66%
24%
65%
28%
60%
52%
47%
33%
38%
45%
Margin by which Obama is favored on the issues
6
Obama’s greatest issue strengths among young adults are health care and the environment.
In relation to the top issue of priority among young people, “dealing with the economic crisis,”
McCain polled slightly better, but Obama still has a 27-point advantage. Even on the issue of
cutting taxes that John McCain has set as a central tenet of his platform, young people favored
Obama. It is only on the issue of dealing with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that young
people appear almost equally split.
McCain has the advantage as the candidate who can better deal with Iraq and Afghanistan
among those who identify themselves as very conservative, conservative and (narrowly)
among moderates. He also has the advantage among those who have served in the military.
The Job Market
Job creation ranked second (tied with the environment) as the most important issue among
young people, and again, Obama was favored by a wide margin. We found that regardless of
education level, young people favored Obama on this issue. But when asked if they had heard
candidates talk about their plans to improve the job market for young people, nearly half (44%)
said they had not heard Obama speak about this. Likewise, 62% had not heard McCain talk
about his plan for job creation either, so this does not seem to have hurt Obama
disproportionately:
Have You Heard About the Candidates’ Plans to Improve the Job Market for Young People?
John McCain
Barack Obama
Yes, have heard
36%
55%
No, have not
62%
44%
The Economic Crisis: Who Will Pay?
Just over half of 18 to 29-year-olds said that their own financial situation had been harmed a
great deal or moderate amount by the economic events this fall, but 44% said their situation
was not harmed much or at all.
How much do you think your own financial situation has been harmed by the events of the last month – a
great deal, a moderate amount, not much, or not at all?
Great deal
22%
Moderate
amount
33%
Not much
28%
Not at all
16%
No opinion
1%
The 18 to 29-year-olds without a college education were most affected with 59% saying they
had been harmed, while 45% of those with a college education or more said that had been
harmed as well.
7
Young people are split on the question of which generation of Americans will bear the burden
of the financial crisis in the long run, though a slight majority say that Americans over 30 years
old will be harmed more.
8
The Candidates
Candidate Perceptions
How candidates are perceived plays a crucial role in what voters decide on Election Day.
Barack Obama earned higher perception marks among young people when matched against
John McCain in all categories, ranging from his showing of good judgment (54%-29%) to his
ability to inspire (67%-18%). McCain earned his highest marks in being seen as a strong and
decisive leader, but young people still favored Obama by a 46% to 37% margin in that
category.
Among young people, questions of age and experience give McCain his only advantage —
though very slight — over Obama. While 57% think Obama has enough experience to be
president, 59% think McCain is not too old to be president.
Who relates to young people?
Young people overwhelmingly believe that Obama understands their problems better than
McCain. Obama wins this category across all ideological groups, even among the very
conservative.
But who are young people actually going to vote for?
Though Obama leads heavily among young people, this does not mean that all of them are
ready to vote for the Illinois senator. In fact, 66% of conservatives are still planning to vote for
McCain, while 73% of liberals are voting for Obama.
9
Qualities of the Candidates
When asked which candidate is a strong and decisive leader, the responses fell mostly along
partisan lines. However, moderates are almost evenly split with McCain receiving a 3% edge.
Young people overwhelmingly said that Obama has the best sense of humor by a 58% to 17%
margin. When broken down by level of education, people with a high school education think
Obama has a better sense of humor than McCain by a 4-to-1 margin. That lead narrows to a
3-to-1 margin among those who have some college education, and diminishes a bit further
among college graduates, with 2-to-1 for Obama.
Who offers real change from the Bush Administration?
Only Republicans see McCain as real change from the Bush administration. Overall, 56% of
those polled think a McCain administration would be a continuation of the Bush administration.
36% of conservatives agree with this notion, along with 54% of moderates and 75% of liberals.
Personal Connections to the Candidates
When examining questions concerning which presidential candidate young adults would rather
participate in various activities with, the respondents showed an overwhelming preference for
Barack Obama on many accounts. Among other questions, 18 to 29-year-olds were asked
which candidate they would prefer to have a beer with, which candidate they would prefer as
their teacher, whose diary they would rather read, and who they would rather have as their
boss.
While Obama was consistently more popular among all 18 to 29-year-olds for each question,
John McCain emerged on top in certain categories among specific demographics. A
respondent’s level of education, income and geographic region were important factors when
cross-examining this data.
Which candidate would you most want to…
…have a beer with?
In analyzing with whom young people would rather have a beer with based on region, the
South favored McCain in a higher proportion than any other region. The West, Midwest and
East preferred having a beer with Obama. The fact that the South preferred spending time
with McCain rather than Obama is consistent with the current electoral map. The South, with
the exception of Florida, is a strong Republican region.
Nevertheless, if regional variables are ignored, and one examines the results based entirely on
numbers, the vast majority of those sampled prefer to have a drink with Obama.
10
Even young veterans said they would prefer drinking with Obama. Given McCain’s history as
a war hero and fervent supporter of the armed forces, one would expect him to be popular
among young military personnel. While this finding does not necessarily mean they are going
to vote for Obama, it again highlights Obama’s popularity with young people.
…have as a teacher in class?
In examining whom 18 to
29-year-olds would prefer to
have as their teacher based
on education level, there
was a clear preference for
Obama. Regardless of
education level, young
adults largely chose Obama
over McCain. In general,
the higher the educational
level of the respondent, the
more inclined they were to
choose having McCain as a
teacher. However, those
respondents were still a
small minority in comparison
to those preferring Obama.
…have as your boss?
Young adults were twice as likely to choose Obama to have as their boss, especially when
examined by the income levels of the respondents. While McCain was popular among
respondents earning between $30,000 and $74,999 annually, Obama was still nearly twice as
popular in this income bracket.
…read the private diary of?
Examining which diary 18 to 29-year-olds preferred to read between the two candidates
provided another interesting finding for McCain. This was the only category among these
questions where more young people preferred McCain to Obama. Those who had completed
high school or below favored reading Obama’s diary, while those who had completed some or
all of college favored reading McCain’s diary. Those with a post-graduate degree also favored
reading McCain’s diary, 2-to-1. However, more conservatives wanted to read Obama’s diary.
11
Who Are the Young Voters?
For this survey, USA Today/Gallup/American University completed n=598 interviews with 18 to
29-year-olds, between October 13-19, 2008 using both landline and cellular phones.
Demographic Profile:
• 51% are male, 49% are female.
• 57% are between the ages of 18 and 24, 43% are between the ages of 25 and 29.
• 64% are white, 7% are Hispanic, 12% are African-American.
• 31% answered on a cell phone, 69% answered on a landline.
• 70% are employed, 30% are unemployed.
• 6% have served in the US Military.
• 32% are from the South, 21% are from the East, 22% are from the Midwest, 25% are from
the West.
• 27% are married, 72% are not married.
Educational Profile:
• 14% reported that they had not completed high school.
• 29% reported their highest level of education was a high school degree.
• 31% reported they had completed at least some college.
• 13% reported their highest level of education was a college degree.
• 7% reported their highest level of education was a post-graduate degree.
Political and Ideological Profile:
• 73% say they are registered to vote; 23% say they are not registered.
• 70% have given “quite a lot” or “some” thought about the election.
• 95% say they will vote in the 2008 general election.
• 59% said religion is important in their daily life.
• 33% are Democrats, 20% lean Democrat, 10% are Independent, 10% lean Republican,
and 26% are Republicans.
• 9% are very liberal, 22% are liberal, 35% are moderate, 23% are conservative, and 8% are
very conservative.
12
How Young People Get Their Information
The Pew Internet and American Life Survey conducted in
the spring of 2008 found that 50% of 18- to 29-year-olds,
but only 15% of those over 65, looked at Web sites for
political news. In the USA Today/Gallup/MTV survey
conducted in September, 42% of people under thirty said
they used online social networking sites such as Facebook
and MySpace to discuss the presidential campaign,
although only 20% said they used these a great deal or a
moderate amount.
Other than Facebook and MySpace, half the young
respondents named other online sites that they looked to
for political information. CNN.com topped this list, followed
by Yahoo.com and MSN.com.
Interestingly, 45% of young respondents said there
no Web sites they checked often for political
information.
Political Information Online
CNN.com
13%
Yahoo.com
9%
MSN.com
4%
NewYorkTimes.com
3%
FoxNews.com
3%
MSNBC.com
3%
Google.com
3%
BBC.com
2%
YouTube.com
2%
AOL.com
2%
Other
11%
None (vol.)
45%
MyBarackObama.com, DrudgeReport.com,
MySpace.com, Politico.com, NBC.com,
JohnMcCain.com,WashingtonPost.com,
Digg.com, ABC.com,
RealClearPolitics.com, FactCheck.org, and
WallStreetJournal.com all received 1%.
were
Father and Mother Know Best
When asked how much influence various people have on their
political views, young people named parents as the top influence,
with 54% saying they had a great deal of or moderate influence on
their vote.
TV Channel Impact
Interestingly, political
CNN
19%
commentators from TV, radio
FOX
9%
and the Web rank second, even
MSNBC
5%
above friends, though young
Local channels
5%
people are known to value peer
NBC
5%
group opinions. Despite the rock
ABC
2%
stars, sports figures and talk show hosts dotting the political
The Daily
2%
landscape, 68% of young people say celebrities do not
Show
influence their vote.
Other
10%
None (vol.)
42%
CNN Again
Any/all (vol.)
2%
No opinion
6%
42% of young people surveyed said that no
Comedy Central, BET, MTV, CBS, C-SPAN,
television channel has an impact on their vote.
The Colbert Report, The O’Reilly Factor, and
Of those who did volunteer a channel, CNN
PBS all received 1%.
was the top response, with 19% naming the
Cable News Network.
Influence on
Political Views
Parents
54%
Political
Commentators 46%
Friends
43%
Teachers
33%
Religious
Leaders
31%
Celebrities
15%
13
Methodology
Data for this summary was based on two polls conducted by USA Today and Gallup and from
focus groups held at American University. Results for the first poll are based on telephone
interviews conducted Sept. 18-28, 2008, with a random sample of 903 U.S. adults between the
ages of 18 and 29. The sample consists of 633 respondents who were randomly selected
from a national sample of landline and cellular telephone numbers, and 270 respondents who
had participated in earlier national Gallup polls and agreed to be re-interviewed for a future
poll.
For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of
sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 742 registered
voters between the ages of 18 and 29, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5
percentage points.
Questions developed by American University students were added to the October poll. The
questions were partially determined through five focus groups conducted in various classes.
Each focus group discussed issues that American youth are concerned about. The results for
this poll are based on telephone interviews with 598 U.S. adults, aged 18 to 29, conducted
Oct. 13-19, 2008.
For results based on the total sample of 18 to 29-year-olds, one can say with 95% confidence
that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of
476 registered voters between the ages of 18 and 29, the maximum margin of sampling error
is ±4.5 percentage points.
The samples are weighted by demographic information so that they are representative of 18 to
29-year-olds nationwide. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
14
Credits
Editor:
McKayle Davison
Managing Editor: Kristian Hoysradt
Editorial Editor: Jessica Bettencourt
Writers and Analysts:
Katelyn Barry
Ravi Bharwani
Derek Conrad
Casey Harron
Megan Henry
Lauren Hughes
Laiah Idelson
Rachel Levitin
Ann Liu
Joshua Lortie
Joseph Pavel
Carolyn Phenicie
Megan Pusecker
Robert Schwartz
Yanara Sundetovaa
David Teslicko
Sammantha Watson
Kelli Whalen
Graphics Editors and Illustrators:
Tanya Elshahawi
Kelly Conniff
Ruben Luong
Emma Wojtowicz
Addison Berenrzweig
Tara Fuller
Kaylor Garcia
Elyse Greenberg
Hanne Kalstrup
Adrienne Lee
Jessica McGarry
Sarah Morrison
Yu Wang
15
Footnotes
i
Gallup Brain: History of the Youth Vote, Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Survey.
Ibid.
iii
Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement: Voter Turnout Since 1972.
iv
Ibid.
v
Gallup Brain: History of the Youth Vote.
vi
Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement: Voter Turnout Since 1972.
vii
Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement: Voter Turnout Since 1972, Harvard
Institute of Politics Youth Survey, USA Today: Why the GOP Lost the Youth Vote
(http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/04/why-the-gop-l-1.html).
viii
Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement: Voter Turnout Since 1972.
ix
U.S. Census Bureau: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004
(http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p20-556.pdf).
x
Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement: Voter Turnout Since 1972.
xi
Pew: Record Youth Voter Turnout for ’08 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses.
xii
Ibid.
xiii
CIRCLE. “Wrap-Up of 2008 Primary Youth Vote.”
xiv
CBS/ MTV. “State of the Youth Nation: 2008.”
xv
Harvard Institute of Politics. “2008 Pre-Convention Survey Update.”
xvi
CBS/ MTV. “State of the Youth Nation: 2008.”
xvii
Harvard Institute of Politics. “Fall 2008 Survey.”
xviii
Harvard Institute of Politics. “Fall 2008 Survey.”
xix
Ibid, Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Survey.
xx
Pew: Record Youth Voter Turnout for ’08 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses.
ii
16