Materials Transactions, Vol. 49, No. 3 (2008) pp. 402 to 410
Special Issue on Emergent Researches for Substitution to and Effective Usage of Rare and Scarce Metals (1)
#2008 The Japan Institute of Metals
Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050*
Kohmei Halada, Masanori Shimada and Kiyoshi Ijima
Innovative Materials Engineering Laboratory, National Institute for Materials Science, Tsukuba 305-0047, Japan
Forecasts up to 2050 are made of consumption of the following metals: Fe, Al, Cu, Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, Si, Sn, rare earths, Mo, Li, Sb, W,
Ag, Co, In, Au, Ga, Pt and Pd. The forecasts are based on the linear decoupling model of the relation between per capita metal consumption and
per capita GDP. The models of each metal are applied to the economic development model of BRICs and G6 countries. According to these
forecasts, the overall consumption of metals in 2050 will be five times greater than the current levels, and demand for metals, such as Au, Ag, Cu,
Ni, Sn, Zn, Pb and Sb, is expected to be several times greater than the amount of their respective reserves. Demand for Fe and Pt, which is
considered to be optimistic about the resource exhaustion, will also exceed the current reserves. Urgent measures are needed to find alternatives
from common resources and to shift into sound materials circulation society. [doi:10.2320/matertrans.ML200704]
(Received November 26, 2007; Accepted January 15, 2008; Published February 25, 2008)
Keywords: resource depletion, material consumption, economic development, reserve, reserve base
1.
Introduction
The global demand of metal resources is increasing very
rapidly. Scenarios of resource consumption from a backcasting viewpoint are required to reduce a resource supplying
risk. In order to prepare these scenarios, a forecasting of
resource consumption in a long term is necessary. ‘‘The
Global 2000 Report to the President’’1) was published at
1970s in the era of economic development. Forecasting
reports by Tilton2) and Cox3) were reported at 1990s in the era
of moderate growth. JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals
National Corporation) reported4) a medium-term forecast at
the latest days. JOGMEC’s report predicts that Cu consumption will increase up to the range between 19 million
tons and 37 million tons, Pb will increase between 8.4 million
and 9.55 million tons, Zn between 11.6 million and 14
million tons, and Ni between 1.8 million to 2.7 million tons.
This paper makes a longer-term forecasting of the consumption of several metals up to the year 2050 in order to
comprehend the degree of the resource supplying risk at the
current moment.
Since the Club of Rome proposed ‘‘Limits of Growth’’ in
1970, continuous upward growth has not been a prerequisite
of economic activities; rather, there has been a shift toward
low resource consumption-based growth because of limited
resources. The authors’ analyses of how the state of
decoupling has appeared in the consumption of individual
metals have revealed that most metals have reached a weak
state of decoupling.5) However, even though the state of
decoupling is required within the ‘‘Limits of Growth,’’ it was
necessary to examine if sufficient conditions existed within a
separate context. The results showed that not only economic
development and material consumption in the case of Si has
been moving from a state of coupling to decoupling, but
metals such as Cu and Fe are also headed toward a state of
decoupling, and demand is rising to construct a technological
base that can bring about an even greater state of decoupling.
In the 1960s, economic growth was limited to a relatively
*This
Paper was Originally Published in Japanese in J. Japan Inst. Metals
71 (2007) 831–839.
few countries that had about 20% of the world’s population,
but economic growth today is occurring in heavily populated
countries on a global scale, and it is doubtful whether the
current process of decoupling will be able to react to the
subsequent explosive growth in consumption. The present
paper applies the authors’ model of per capita correlations of
the state of decoupling of various metals to estimated for
growth of so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China),
which will be showing remarkable growth into the near
future, and the original G6 countries of Japan, USA, UK,
France, Germany, and Italy to estimate the consumption of
these metals until the year 2050. In addition, by looking at
how much demand for resources will exceed the present
reserve until the year 2050, this paper will be able to
contribute to the discussion on ‘‘Limits of Growth’’ from a
new time frame.
2.
Methodology
Estimates of future population and GDP have been made
by various entities such as the United Nations.6) In October
2003, Goldman Sachs integrated estimates for GDP and
population between BRICs and G6 countries in a report titled
‘‘Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050’’.7) It should be
noted that this report was apparently the first to use the term
‘‘BRICs’’. Figure 1 shows estimated per capita GDP for each
country up to the year 2050, while Fig. 2 shows population
estimates for the countries. The per capita correlation for the
consumption of various metals, shown as coefficients in
Table 1 by referring to the author’s book,5) were used in the
following equations:
yM ¼ aM,0 x
ðx < cM,1 Þ
yM ¼ aM,1 x þ bM,1
ðcM,1 < xÞ
ð1Þ
ð2Þ
Here, x shows the per capita GDP for each country in each
applicable year, and yM shows the per capita consumption of
a metal M. It should be noted that the right-side column of
Table 1 shows reserves and reserve bases of these metals for
the year 2005 in units of metal content (tons) based on data
from the United States Bureau of Mines. In addition, the
estimates for reserves of minerals are for the amounts which
Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050
3.
Results
90000
US
GDP par capita, US$/capita
80000
70000
60000
France
50000
UK
40000
Italy
30000
Germany
Table 1
Type
I
Au
I
Sn
I
Zn
I
W
I
Cr
I
I
0
I
0
metal
Mn
Cu
Pb
unit
g/capita
Kg/capita
Kg/capita
g/capita
Kg/capita
Kg/capita
Kg/capita
Kg/capita
Line A
China
Russia
Brazil
10000
India
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Fig. 1
Per capita GDP of each study country predicted by Goldman Sachs.
10000
Brazil
China
India
Russia
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
UK
US
India
China
1000
US
Brazil
Japan
Russia
100
Germany
Figures from Fig. 4 onward show the results of calculations for predictions. The A graph shows the calculated
consumption of various metals for each year in a 5-year block
which have been added together and depicted as bar graphs
for consumption for each country. In the case of Fe, demand
is expected to rise steadily to nearly 2.5 billion tons/year by
2050, or about 5 times the current consumption. In addition,
looking at the make-up among nations, we can see the
increase in demand in the G6 countries slows down, but
China’s share of consumption will continue to rise steadily
Brazil
China
India
Russia
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
UK
US
Japan
20000
Population, million
can be economically extracted with the present technology,
while the reserve base refers to the amount of minerals which
can technically be extracted but are not the object of
extraction due to economic, political, and/or other reasons.
In addition, existing consumption is the cumulative amount
consumed through 2004. These values were obtained from
estimates made of total consumption up to 1989 in the
‘‘Global Resource Strategies Note’’,8) while the consumption
data from 1990 onward were taken from the Mineral
Resource Data Book.9) Furthermore, for items for which
there are no cumulative values up to 1989, cumulative values
started with the first year listed in the Mineral Resource Data
Book.
These data were used first to estimate the amount of each
metal consumed from 2005 onward, then the calculated
values for each country were added on to estimate consumption for 5-year time blocks. Furthermore, the consumption of each metal for each year was interpolated from the 5year block data and totaled to derive the cumulative
consumption for up to that year.
403
France
UK
Italy
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Fig. 2 Population growth predicted by Goldman Sachs.
until 2030, and after that, growth of consumption in India is
expected to become a dominant factor in overall Fe
consumption. The B graph shows cumulative consumption.
Factors of models and reserves of each metal.
Line B
aM,2
bM,2
Transition
GDP$/capita
accumulate consumption
unit 2004
Reserve
aM,1
0.00015
0:000069
5.16
23,900
2:82 1010
7:90 1010
1:80 1011
8,300
9:50 10
4
4
9:00 104
4:19 10
8
8
9:40 108
7:19 10
8
10
1:69 1010
1:33 10
7
6
1:10 107
3:77 10
7
7
1:40 108
4
4:00 104
4
3:55 10
4:00 104
1:00 106
0.000048
0.0009
0.008
0.0006
0.0012
0.00084
0.00062
0:0000023
0:000031
:0001
0:00014
0:00012
0
0
0.3
6.7
48.2
9.0
13.6
11.0
2.8
7,200
5,400
12,200
10,300
13,200
4,600
Reserve
base
4:20 10
4:70 10
1:32 10
6:10 10
6:20 10
3:55 10
1:02 10
4
6
II
Fe
Kg/capita
0.070
0.0066
336
10,700
8:25 10
II
Al
Kg/capita
0.0013
0.00054
10.6
13,800
2:29 103
1:50 104
II
Ni
Kg/capita
0.00012
0.000021
0.69
7,100
2800
6000
II
Mo
g/capita
0.0105
0.0023
61.4
10,700
1:51 107
7:00 106
1:30 107
II
Sb
g/capita
0.0094
0.00069
52.0
9,800
4:65 106
8:60 106
1:90 107
5,600
4:57 10
6
6
3:90 106
9:83 10
8
8
1:80 109
4:42 10
6
6
1:10 107
5:92 10
8
8
5:20 109
1:52 10
6
7
1:50 108
2:51 10
6
6
6:20 106
3:22 10
8
8
4:60 108
1:70 10
8
7
1:40 108
6:43 10
5
5
5:70 105
II
Ag
II
Pd
III
III
III
0
III
0
III
0
III
0
III
0
Pt
Si
Co
RE
Ga
Li
In
g/capita
g/capita
0.0023
0.000025
g/capita
g/capita
g/capita
g/capita
g/capita
0.0000082
0.000013
Kg/capita
g/capita
0.00045
0.000039
0.0018
0.0022
0.000016
0.0016
0.000016
0.0028
0.0057
0.000031
0.0030
0.0007
10.6
0.19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11,300
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1:80 10
8:10 10
4:10 10
4:30 10
8:80 10
2:90 10
2:20 10
6:70 10
2:70 10
404
K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima
A)
A)
Fe
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
50,000
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
2,500,000
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
Cu
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2010
250,000,000
Cu (K ton)
Fe (K ton)
100,000,000
2040
2050
B)
B)
150,000,000
2030
year
year
200,000,000
2020
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
50,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2045
year
year
Fig. 3-3 Cu
Fig. 3-1 Estimated consumption of Fe: A) annual, B) cumulative
A)
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
Al
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
A)
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
year
B)
B)
7,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000
16,000,000
6,000,000
Mn (K ton)
Al (K ton)
Mn
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
Fig. 3-2
Al
The darker bottom sections of the bars depict the existing
cumulative consumption at 2005, while the lighter shaded
sections show the accumulated consumption that is predicted
for the applicable year. The solid line shows the sum of
existing cumulative consumption and current reserves, while
the dashed line depicts the sum of existing cumulative
consumption and reserve base. In the case of Fe, the
cumulative consumption at 2050 is predicted to be at roughly
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
Fig. 3-4
Mn
the same level as current reserves, so demand will rise to
withdraw from the existing economic system and develop
new materials.
Figures 3 through 24 show estimated results, in identical
formats, of predicted consumption at the year 2050 of the
following metals: Al, Cu, Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, Si, Sn, rare
earths, Mo, Li, Sb, W, Ag, Co, In, Au, Ga, Pt, and Pd,
respectively. It should be noted that since there were no
Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050
405
A)
Zn
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
A)
14,000
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
30,000
12,000
Pb
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
year
year
B)
1,400,000
700,000
1,200,000
600,000
1,000,000
500,000
Pb (K ton)
Zn (K ton)
B)
800,000
600,000
400,000
300,000
400,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
0
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2045
year
year
Fig. 3-5
Fig. 3-7 Pb
Zn
A)
A)
Cr
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
7,000
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
25,000
Ni
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
year
B)
B)
250,000
3,000,000
200,000
Ni (K ton)
2,500,000
Cr (K ton)
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
2,000,000
1,500,000
150,000
100,000
1,000,000
50,000
500,000
0
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
year
Fig. 3-6
Cr
reserve data available for Si, there is no reserve line for it in
its figure.
The consumption of all target metals is expected to
increase until 2040. However, the decoupling effect should
appear for Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, and Sn, and their annual
consumption should decrease. The main consumers of these
metals are expected to shift from G6 to BRICs. However, in
the cases of Si, Li, In, Ga, Pt, and Pd, the share of
Fig. 3-8
Ni
consumption in G6 is expected to remain large, even in 2050.
Nevertheless, BRICs will still likely account for more than
50% of total consumption of all of these metals.
Looking at the relation between cumulative consumption
and present reserves, it appears that consumption of only a
few metals, i.e., Fe, Al, Cr, Co, and rare earths, will be at or
below the present reserve levels. Furthermore, the current
reserves of Fe will likely be depleted by 2050. At the same
406
K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima
A)
Si
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
A)
6,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Re
2000
2010
2020
year
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
B)
160,000
120,000
140,000
100,000
120,000
RE (K ton)
Si (K ton)
B)
140,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
20,000
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
year
year
Fig. 3-9 Si
Fig. 3-11 Rare earths
A)
Sn
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
A)
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
1,200
600
Mo
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
B)
25,000
20,000
Mo (K ton)
Sn (K ton)
B)
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
15,000
10,000
5,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
Fig. 3-10 Sn
Fig. 3-12 Mo
time, demand for In, Sn, Ag, Zn, Pb, Au, Cu, Ni and Pd will
likely exceed the reserve base. While consumption of most of
these metals is expected to slacken off after 2040, the state of
decoupling will probably not be achieved due to the
limitations of resources expressed in the reserve base.
and reserves more understandable, expected cumulative
consumption at 2020 was compared with the present
reserves, as shown in Fig. 4. The downward-extending bars
in the figure represent today’s reserves. The upper bars
indicate the reserve base when reserves are set at 1. When an
upward-extending bar graph crosses the 1 line, it signifies
that the amount of current reserves has been depleted; when it
passes a bar, it means that the reserve base has been depleted.
By 2020, it is predicted that the cumulative consumption of
4.
Discussion
In order to make the relation between metals consumption
Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050
407
Li
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
A)
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
140
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
A)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
120
W
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
year
2030
2040
2050
year
B)
B)
18,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
7,000
6,000
W (K ton)
Li (K ton)
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
10,000
8,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
4,000
2,000
1,000
0
2,000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
year
Fig. 3-13 Li
Fig. 3-15 W
A)
Sb
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
A)
120
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
350
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
Ag
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
B)
B)
14,000
4,000
3,500
10,000
Ag (K ton)
Sb (K ton)
12,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
2,000
500
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
year
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
Fig. 3-14 Sn
Fig. 3-16 Ag
In, Ag and Pb will be exceeded the current reserves, and the
present reserves of Au, Cu and Sn will be depleted. In fact,
Ag will already be experiencing immense pressure on its
reserve base by that time. In the case of In, consumption at
that time is expected to have grown to 20 times the current
reserves, so it will not be possible to meet demand unless
sufficient technological advances are made and/or drastic
revisions are made in target resources.
Figure 5 shows that in 2050, the situation will be even
more gloomy. The current reserves of nearly all metals will
have become depleted, and even the reserve base will be
exceeded. In the previously mentioned case of In, the metal
has a relatively short history and there is plenty of room for
technical reconsiderations about its use as a resource,
extracting and smelting technologies, etc. But this is not
the case for Cu, Au, Ag, etc., for which extraction and
408
K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
Co
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
A)
12
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
A)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Au
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
year
B)
B)
400
30,000
350
300
Au (K ton)
Co (K ton)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
250
200
150
100
50
5,000
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
year
year
Fig. 3-19 Au
Fig. 3-17 Co
A)
12
In
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
Metal consumption, kton/year
Metal consumption, kton/year
A)
5
Ga
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
year
B)
B)
1,200
250
1,000
Ga (K ton)
In (K ton)
200
150
100
800
600
400
200
50
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
year
Fig. 3-18 In
Fig. 3-20 Ga
processing technologies have already matured. Regarding
metals for which mines have been developed and exploration
is being undertaken on a global scale, dramatic technological
innovations like those which were made up to the 20th
century are needed to make extremely effective device
designs and material designs to match consumption and
use patterns. Demand is also rising for technological
development of alternative resources that still have some
latitude like Al, and for all-out efforts to develop alternative
and recycling technologies so that once used resources can be
used again.
It should be noted that two factors can affect the accuracy
of these predictions. One is the applicability of the per capita
correlation values between metal consumption and GDP; the
other the accuracy of the Goldman Sachs predictions. In the
case of the former, we can get a good idea of the accuracy by
considering the error between actual data obtained for metal
consumption, GDP, and population, and predictions based on
Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050
A)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
Accumulation consumption / Reserves, Comparatively
Pt
12.5
3
Reserves base
2
Reserves
Metal consumption, kton/year
2.0
409
1
0
Fe
Al
Cu
Mn
Zn
Cr
Pb
Ni
Sn
RE Mo
Li
Co
Sb
Ag
W
Au
In
Ga
Pd
Pt
−1
−2
Existing mining quantity
−3
Metals
50
Fig. 4 The relation between cumulative demand and existing reserves by
2020.
40
20
10
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
Fig. 3-21 Pt
Metal consumption, kton/year
A)
3
Pd
2
1
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Russia
India
China
Brazil
year
B)
50
Pd (K ton)
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
year
Accumulation consumption / Reserves, Comparatively
30
10.3
7
72
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Fe
Al
Cu
Mn
Zn
Cr
Pb
Ni
Sn
RE
Mo
Li
Co
Sb
Ag
W
Au
In
Ga
Pd
Pt
−1
−2
−3
Metals
Fig. 5 The relation between cumulative demand and existing reserves by
2050.
1.6
Al
1.5
Consumption index to
calculated consumption at the year 2000
Pt (K ton)
B)
60
1.4
Pb
1.3
1.2
Pt
Fe
Fe
Cu
1.1
Pb
Ni
Al
Zn
1
Zn
Cu
Fe
Al
Cu
Ni
Zn
Pb
Pt
Fe
Al
Cu
Ni
Zn
Pb
Pt
0.9
0.8
Pt(industrial)
0.7
Ni
0.6
0.5
Fig. 3-22 Pd
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
the per capita correlation values. Moreover, the accuracy of
growth predictions can be understood by comparing them
with actual data from 2004. In Fig. 6, some calculated results
(for 2000 to 2005) for Fe, Al, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb, and Pt are
plotted as a solid line against data from 2000 and 2004 (2003
for Fe, 2005 for Al and Pt). Trends in actual consumption
were roughly the same or slightly higher than predicted
values, and, while it is for a short period, the increase in
consumption was at or above the predicted level. Discrepancies between the model and values for 2000 were seen with
Fig. 6 Comparison between real annual consumption and calculated
consumption.
Zn, Ni, and Pt. Regarding Zn, actual growth trend was larger
than the predicted trend, but there was little difference
between the actual and model values, so it appears that
downward error will disappear in the future. In addition, the
error in the Pt values was likely caused by the fact that actual
values for Pt for both 2000 and 2004 were only for industrial
410
K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima
uses, while the consumption model included demand for Pt
for jewelry. In the case of Ni discrepancies, upon close
inspection it appears that the cause huge differences between
actual and predicted values for the United States and
European countries. This is because the main use of Ni is
as a material for providing corrosion resistance in stainless
steel, etc., and the consumption model for high-temperature,
high-humidity Japan does not correspond with the consumption structure for the United States and Europe. However,
given that three of the BRICs have corrosive environments
that are as bad as or worse than Japan’s, it appears that the
Japanese model will have much greater compatibility in the
future.
Thus, investigation of the factors affecting the accuracy of
the prediction models have shown that there are few factors
that result in excessive evaluations by the models at the
present time. As shown in Fig. 5, the current reserves, and
even the reserve base will be greatly exceeded by demand by
2050, so it will be necessary to resolve issues related to
demand for metal consumption. In other words, demand will
arise to make a concerted effort to reduce use and increase
utilization efficiency, devise alternative materials which can
manifest the same functions using elements in resource
groups having high universality, and quickly develop
technologies for recycling resources that are extracted from
the ground used one time. To put it another way, as in
agriculture where self-generating plants will be almost
completely non-existent in the future, there will only be a
very few cases where metal resources will be extracted from
the ground. Rather, most resources will be man-made
products or by-products, and it can be said that pressure is
growing to shift relatively quickly to a system where
resources are obtained from intermediate processed goods.
5.
Concluding Remarks
The development of BRICs is leading to such demand for
materials that by 2050, consumption of these materials will
be 5 times what it is today. This will make it impossible to
meet the demand solely with existing resource reserves.
Furthermore, it is predicted that the consumption of some
metals will even exceed their reserve base, so demand will
rise to reconsider the use of these resources, and develop
revolutionary new means of acquiring and recycling resources. Compared with increasing demand for such materials,
the sustainability of decoupling at the current GDP level of
the G6 countries would be much farther away, so demand is
rising to quickly further entrench decoupling with revolutionary technological innovations.
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