CATENA-01778; No of Pages 6 Catena 95 (2012) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Catena journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/catena A regional analysis of the effects of largest events on soil erosion J. Carlos Gonzalez-Hidalgo a, b,⁎, Ramon J. Batalla c, d, e, Artemio Cerda f, Martin de Luis a, b a Department of Geography, University of Zaragoza, Spain IUCA, University of Zaragoza, Spain c Department of Environment and Soil Sciences, University of Lleida, Spain d Forestry Science Center of Catalonia, Solsona, Spain e Catalan Institute for Water Research, Spain f Department of Geography, University of Valencia, Spain b a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 7 December 2010 Received in revised form 12 March 2012 Accepted 13 March 2012 Available online xxxx Keywords: Soil erosion Daily events USLE database Regional analyses a b s t r a c t A large amount of geomorphic work is caused by a small number of extreme events that are mainly responsible for the time compression of geomorphic processes. The classic approach defines extreme events by their magnitude and they are quantified by certain deviation from a central value. Alternatively, we define extreme events as the largest events sorted by rank, whatever their absolute magnitude. In this case, events with equal rank from two different sites can be responsible for different magnitudes of geomorphic work, e.g., the amount of erosion. The new approach applied to soil erosion is that, whatever the magnitude of soil eroded, erosion is a time compressed process and the percentage contribution to total soil erosion by the few largest events (regardless of their magnitude) is negatively related to the total number of daily soil erosion events recorded. To verify and generalize this approach, we used the most extensive daily soil erosion dataset available (USLE database). In this paper, we present a geographical analysis of the effects of largest daily event on soil erosion by comparing 594 erosion plots located in agricultural fields under various climatic temperate conditions across the central-east of the USA. Plots differ in cover, soil types and length of records. Results indicate that: i) soil erosion in agricultural fields is a highly time compressed process and soil erosion mean values calculated over short time periods are biased, regardless of the magnitude of daily events recorded; ii) the relative effects of the n-largest daily events (whatever their magnitude) on total soil erosion depends on the length of records and, particularly, on the total number of events recorded; iii) the derived relationship of the required time length for records is generalized on a semi-continental scale; and iv) thus seems to be independent of climate conditions. This new approach can help us to define the minimum number of recorded soil events needed to avoid bias in soil erosion evaluation, in other words: the minimum period of field research on erosion should be evaluated not in years, but by the total number of daily erosive events. Thus, the number of daily erosive events is the key parameter for characterizing soil erosion processes at each measuring location. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Due to the fact that rainfall is concentrated into short periods of time, most geomorphic work (such as soil erosion) occurs in very short temporal intervals (i.e., in few events) (Edwards and Owens, 1991; Larson et al., 1997; McBroom et al., 2003; Piest, 1965; Wischmeier, 1962; Zhang and Garbrecht, 2002; Zuzel et al., 1993). The magnitude-frequency analysis by Wolman and Miller (1960) demonstrated that daily events, which may not necessarily be extreme events and represent short time intervals, could be responsible for a high amount of sediment transport. ⁎ Corresponding author at: Department of Geography, University of Zaragoza, Spain. Tel.: + 34 876553900. E-mail address: [email protected] (J.C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo). Long-term studies have shown that an individual year can result in different volumes of soil loss, sometimes depending on the occurrence of infrequent severe storms (Burwell and Kramer, 1983), showing annual and inter-annual temporal compression. Thus, there is a great deal of uncertainty in soil erosion mean values from short records, because the results depend upon which study period is selected, and on the occurrence or absence of extreme soil loss events (Burwell and Kramer, 1983; Hjelmfelt et al., 1986; Lane and Kidwell, 2003). This means, that for practical purposes, long-term records should be used to evaluate soil erosion mean values (Edwards and Owens, 1991; Larson et al., 1997; Piest, 1965) and simple extrapolation from shortterm records is likely to produce large errors in estimation (Kirkby, 1987). The classic approach defines the extreme event as a rare, low probability event, usually defined in relation to their exceeding certain threshold values (e.g. means, percentiles). Notwithstanding, the 0341-8162/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.catena.2012.03.006 Please cite this article as: Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J.C., et al., A regional analysis of the effects of largest events on soil erosion, Catena (2012), doi:10.1016/j.catena.2012.03.006 2 J.C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al. / Catena 95 (2012) xxx–xxx time compression of geomorphic processes could be focused by a new complementary approach based on the effects of largest events, defined by rank, regardless of the magnitude of the daily erosion value. An example of the viability of this approach was shown in Mediterranean ecosystems (Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2007) where research based on erosion plots has revealed high temporal compression of soil erosion. As an example, the 3-largest aggregated daily events produce an average of 50% of total soil eroded on annual and inter-annual scales. With temperate ecosystems, similar results were found from an analysis of 300 plots from the USLE database (Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2009a) and research showed that the n-largest daily events, representing 10% of the total daily erosion events recorded, produce on average 50% of the total soil eroded. This study was carried out with no distinction between the geographical origin of plots (i.e. effects of climate or local differences were not addressed). In this paper, we investigate the geographical differences in time compression of soil erosion by analysing the effects of the n-largest events on total soil erosion. For this purpose we used information from daily data provided by the USLE database. The study analyses in detail hundreds of soil loss measurements obtained from erosion plots under different climate conditions on a semi-continental scale. The number of daily events recorded in the plots differs, and plots had varying plant covers, crops and soil types. Thus, the general hypothesis of the study was that the time compression of soil erosion would follow a general pattern in which the relative contribution of the n-largest daily erosion events do not differ under different climatic conditions, but rather depends on the number of events recorded (i.e. period of time with records). Furthermore, we hypothesized that this behaviour would not depend on the existence or absence of recorded extreme events. 2. Database and methods 2.1. Database Daily erosive events from the original 594 erosion plots and 35 field sites provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) were analysed. Plots were located in different agricultural regions in the eastern half of the North American subcontinent and divided in the following regions: Midwest-North (226), New EnglandNorth Atlantic (100), South (79) and South East (189). Field sites are located under different climate types. Rainfall amounts and rainfall erosivity vary from southeast (highest) to north and northwest (lowest) (see Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). Table 1 lists the various research stations and number of plots per site. Their location is shown in Fig. 1. The total number of daily records is 44,528, and data collection times range from 1930 to 1971. Plots differed in soil type and management (including crop types and cover). 2.2. Methods In a time data series, when the events are ordered by magnitude, the largest is rank 1, the second largest is the second rank event, etc. regardless of the absolute magnitudes of the events. Therefore ranks 1, 2, 3…, could differ in magnitude between plots and furthermore the rank 1, 2 3… should not necessarily be considered as extreme events (see general definition in the Introduction section). Also, as the time record progresses in the same plot (i.e. new events are recorded), events 1, 2, 3, etc. will change accordingly. The aforementioned approach has already been presented recently as complementary to the classic magnitude-frequency analysis (GonzalezHidalgo et al., 2007, 2009b) and it works as an indicator of the temporal compression of geomorphic processes. This is the approach followed in the present study, and it is exemplified by the effects of the 5-largest daily events on total soil erosion, after analysis of aggregations of the 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 largest daily events. 2.2.1. Contribution of n-largest events to total soil loss To analyze the contributions of the n-largest daily events to total soil loss, the complete series of daily erosive events per plot were ordered by magnitude. Next, the total amount of soil erosion during the entire record period from each plot was calculated and the percentage contribution of each event computed. Finally, the percentage contribution of the n-largest events from each plot was added. A simplified example for the 5-largest events is shown in Table 2 using random data. The table shows a set of individual events (column Date and Value) and the rank of each event (column Rank), with the amount of “soil eroded” being 11.55 g m- 2. After ranking the event by magnitude and calculating the individual percentage contribution of each event to the total, the value of the contribution of the 5-largest accumulated events is 36.7%. 2.2.2. Geographical analysis Analysis of geographical variation in the contribution of the nlargest daily events to total soil erosion was done using a general linear model (GLM) because it allows normally distributed dependent variables and categorical or continuous independent variables to be included. The univariate (nested) ANOVA model was selected, taking the number of events as a cofactor, the region as a fixed factor, and the site as a random effect. The p level was set at 0.05. Further information on the soil types, plant cover, tillage systems and management practices is not currently available and was not included in the model. Table 1 USLE field research stations. N, number of plots per site. Region State Site N Region State Site N Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North Midwest-North South-East South-East South-East South-East Iowa Missouri Iowa Iowa Illinois Iowa Illinois Wisconsin Wisconsin Missouri Minnesota Illinois Ohio South Dakota Arkansas S. Carolina Mississippi N. Carolina Beaconsfield Bethany Castana Clarinda Dixon Springs Independence Joilet LaCrosse Madison McCredle Morris Urbana Zanesville Madison Batesville Clemson Holly Springs Raleigh 2 37 6 50 20 2 13 39 5 31 3 4 11 3 14 14 13 58 South-East South-East South-East South-East South-East New England-North New England-North New England-North New England-North New England-North New England-North New England-North New England-North South South South South S. Carolina Mississippi N. Carolina Georgia Georgia New York New Jersey Virginia New York New York New Jersey New Jersey Maine Oklahoma Kansas Texas Texas Spartanburg State College Statesville Tifton Watkinsville Arnot (Ithaca) Beemerville Blacksburg Geneva Marcellus Marlboro New Brunswick Presque Isle Guthrie Hays Temple Tyler 12 11 12 18 37 16 6 15 8 2 24 8 21 5 26 30 18 Atlantic Atlantic Atlantic Atlantic Atlantic Atlantic Atlantic Atlantic Please cite this article as: Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J.C., et al., A regional analysis of the effects of largest events on soil erosion, Catena (2012), doi:10.1016/j.catena.2012.03.006 J.C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al. / Catena 95 (2012) xxx–xxx 3 Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of field research station USLE database. Thus, we used the total number of events recorded per plot as a surrogate for time, because as time passes, an increasing number of events is accumulated at each plot. The geographical variations were indicated by region, with the site as the indicator of more local conditions, such as soil type, plant cover, tillage systems etc. Because the number of events recorded varies among different sites and regions, the resulting GLM computation estimated the marginal mean values of the dependent variable (i.e. soil erosion contribution of n-largest events) for a common number of events (58 events in this case, representing the mean number of events recorded from all sites). It should be noted that these marginal mean values are estimated based on the selected linear model. 3. Results The time compression pattern of soil erosion in the global data base for the effect of the n-largest daily events is expressed by an empirical power law, with the total number of erosive events as an independent variable, and the percentage contribution of n-largest daily events to total soil erosion as the dependent variable. This pattern for the 5largest events is shown in Fig. 2 for different regions, with the power law being statistically significant in all cases (pb 0.05). The global results from GLM (nested ANOVA) are shown in Table 3 for the 5-largest daily events. The estimated contribution of the 5largest daily events to total soil erosion varies greatly in relation to Table 2 Largest event approach. Example of calculation of contribution of 5-largest event to total soil loss during hypothetical 20 events. (Data at random, see text for explanation). Date 01/01/1920 02/01/1920 03/01/1920 04/01/1920 05/01/1920 06/01/1920 07/01/1920 08/01/1920 09/01/1920 10/01/1920 11/01/1920 12/01/1920 13/01/1920 14/01/1920 15/01/1920 16/01/1920 17/01/1920 18/01/1920 19/01/1920 20/01/1920 Value (g m- 2) Rank 0.72 0.17 0.63 0.81 0.83 0.55 0.76 0.51 0.35 0.63 0.74 0.07 0.58 0.65 0.26 0.73 0.86 0.68 0.98 0.06 8 18 11 4 3 14 5 15 16 12 6 19 13 10 17 7 2 9 1 20 Daily events ranked by magnitude Date Value (g m- 2) Rank Single event contribution to total (%) Accumulated contribution of n-largest (%) 19/01/1920 17/01/1920 05/01/1920 04/01/1920 07/01/1920 11/01/1920 16/01/1920 01/01/1920 18/01/1920 14/01/1920 03/01/1920 10/01/1920 13/01/1920 06/01/1920 08/01/1920 09/01/1920 15/01/1920 02/01/1920 12/01/1920 20/01/1920 Total 0.98 0.86 0.83 0.81 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.63 0.58 0.55 0.51 0.35 0.26 0.17 0.07 0.06 11.55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 8.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 3.0 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.5 8.5 16.0 23.1 30.1 36.7 43.1 49.4 55.6 61.4 67.0 72.5 78.0 82.9 87.7 92.1 95.2 97.4 98.9 99.5 100.0 Please cite this article as: Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J.C., et al., A regional analysis of the effects of largest events on soil erosion, Catena (2012), doi:10.1016/j.catena.2012.03.006 New England / North Atlantic 100 Contribution (%) 5-largest J.C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al. / Catena 95 (2012) xxx–xxx Contribution (%) 5-largest 4 South East 100 -0,3604 y = 218,73 x 2 R = 0,7034, p <0.05 75 50 25 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 -0,4123 y = 250,21x 2 R = 0,5886, p < 0.05 75 50 25 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Events Mid-West / North 100 Contribution (%) 5-largest Contribution (%) 5-largest Events South 100 -0,4084 y = 269,98x 2 R = 0,6475, p <0.05 75 50 25 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 -0,4576 y = 318,05x 2 R = 0,8282, p <0.05 75 50 25 0 0 50 100 150 Events 200 250 300 350 400 Events Fig. 2. Temporal compression of soil erosion in USLE data base. Relationships between number of erosive events per plot and percentage contribution of 5-largest daily event by Region (see Table 1). the total daily events recorded from each plot (Events (log), p b 0.001, Table 3). This contribution also differs significantly, due to local effects (Site, p b 0.001). In contrast, the contribution of the 5-largest daily events to total soil erosion does not differ significantly between regions (p = 0.632, Table 3). According to these results, the contribution of the 5-largest daily events to total soil erosion (estimated for a common number of events of 58) is 47% in the South East region, 49% in the South, 51% in New England-North Atlantic and 50% in the Midwest-North region. Similar results are obtained when analysing the contribution to total soil loss for the 3-largest, 5-largest, 10-largest, 15-largest, 20-largest and 25-largest daily events, and in Table 4 we show the p level for each factor accordingly n-largest events. Such results suggest that, despite variations due to different numbers or events considered, or because of differences in local environmental conditions at each site, the contribution of large events to soil erosion does not differ between the regions analysed. 4. Discussion Previous projects have documented the effects of extreme events on total soil erosion and sediment transport, both on plot (Burwell Table 3 Generalized Linear Model (univariate nested ANOVA analysis). The 5-largest daily event contribution factors on soil erosion in USLE dataset. Source Intersection Region Events (log) Site Hypothesis Error Hypothesis Error Hypothesis Error Hypothesis Error SS III df MS F Sig 79.37 3.87 0.06 1.35 8.39 4.12 1.77 4.12 1 440 3 36 1 556 31 556 79.378 0.009 0.021 0.037 8.391 0.007 0.057 0.007 9017.3 0.001 0.5 0.632 1132.4 0.001 7.7 0.001 SS III: Sum of Squared (type III); MS: Mean Squared; df: degree of freedom; F: Fisher test; Sig.: p level of significance. Events (log): number of events transformed by log. Intersection is constant term. and Kramer, 1983; Hjelmfelt et al., 1986; Piest, 1965; Wischmeier, 1962; Zhang and Garbrecht, 2002; Zuzel et al., 1993) and catchment scales (Douglas et al., 1999; Edwards and Owens, 1991; Lane and Kidwell, 2003; Larson et al., 1997; Lenzi et al., 2003; McBroom et al., 2003; Nearing et al., 2007; Polyakov et al., 2010). Extreme events are convincing arguments in assessing the importance of time compression of soil erosion processes, and explaining why extreme events are a classic issue in geomorphology that have received on-going attention; more so at the present because of the increasingly apparent problem of global change. However, soil erosion is a temporal compressed process, even in cases where extreme events are absent from the data record. Thus, the time frame of soil erosion research requires careful attention, and the effect of single events must be separated when designing erosion control technologies and the annual average for conservation planning (Stroosnijder, 2005). Thus, the classic question of how long an erosion plot should be maintained in the field is a critical issue as yet unsolved. The largest daily event approach is focused on the second question (annual average for conservation planning) and is based on the relationship between the percentage contribution of n-largest daily events (rank ordered) to total soil erosion and the total number of events recorded. Under this approach, although events are ranked by magnitude, the nlargest event (1-largest, 2-largest, ….10-largest etc.) of soil eroded in a plot does not need to be an extreme event, but it could contribute to a high proportion of total soil eroded, depending on the length of recorded events. As has been indicated, this approach was presented in a previous paper using the 5-largest events and 300 erosion plots from USLE dataset, but no information was available on the geographical differences between Table 4 Significance p level factor for n-largest daily event contribution on soil erosion in USLE dataset. Resume from Generalized Linear Model (univariate nested ANOVA analysis, as in Table 3). Region Events (log) Site 3-largest 5-largest 10-largest 15-largest 20-largest 25-largest 0.677 0.001 0.001 0.632 0.001 0.001 0.402 0.001 0.001 0.260 0.001 0.001 0.306 0.001 0.001 0.091 0.001 0.001 Please cite this article as: Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J.C., et al., A regional analysis of the effects of largest events on soil erosion, Catena (2012), doi:10.1016/j.catena.2012.03.006 J.C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al. / Catena 95 (2012) xxx–xxx 5 5-largest event contribution total (%) 100 Random Equal distributed Arnot_1_7 Zanesville_1_8 Statesville_1_4 75 50 25 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Daily events Fig. 3. Relationship between number of erosion events and 5-largest event contribution to total (lag + 1) in a random, equal distributed series, and in three USLE plots. agronomic divisions and specific local conditions. In this paper, with a new set of plots (594, twice those for previous research), we show that the relationship is similar for different n-largest aggregation daily events for contrasting environmental conditions amongst regions. Furthermore, the relationship persists geographically and no significant differences between agronomic divisions have been found under different climate conditions. Therefore, on the semi-continental scale analysed (mid-eastern USA) time compression of soil erosion in agricultural plots was displayed regardless of climate conditions. Notwithstanding, not all the climate conditions have been analysed because data in the USLE dataset does not represent all climatic regimes, such as Mediterranean climate areas, where previous analysis has shown high temporal compression of soil erosion on an annual and inter-annual scale (Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2007). Further analysis should be done to verify the generalization of this pattern using a more detailed daily erosion data set, which is not available at present. A final question arises on why this pattern occurs. In a set of temporal data equal by magnitude (i.e. equally distributed), as total records increase at interval of n+1 event, the percentage contribution of the nlargest events to the total (n+1) decrease asymptotically, and the same occurs if the data series is random. For each plot individually, as more events occur (i.e. along the “life of a soil erosion plot”), the effect of the largest daily event on total soil erosion at an interval of n+1 decreases. In Fig. 3, examples from the USLE database are shown with equally distributed and random series data. Thus we may assume an ergodic transformation. The simple terms of ergodic hypothesis is that “the mean of observations of an individual made over time is equal to the mean of observations made of many individuals a single moment in time over an area” (Thorn, 1988, p. 47; also Thornes and Brunsden, 1977, p. 24), or in simplified form “the hypothesis that, under certain circumstances, space and time can be considered as interchangeable” (Chorley and Kennedy, 1971, p. 349). Following this reasoning, it is assumed that the percentage contribution of the n-largest events to total soil erosion in a different set of plots, each one with a different period of records, follows the pattern of the nlargest decrease in contribution in a single plot. Soil exhaustion in erosion plots is a critical issue in research. It has been identified by the decrease of annual soil erosion and the increase of surface stoniness over time (Ollesch and Vacca, 2002), by the change in rainfall threshold erosivity (Boix-Fayos et al., 2007) etc. This is probably true in small plots after two or three years, particularly if the soil is not protected by plant cover and under high rates of rainfall erosivity, but it is more difficult to accept in larger plots, such as the USLE plots (dimensions 22 × 2 m) located in agricultural soils with a permanent supply of soil after tillage. Furthermore, in the examples shown in previous pages, in many cases the largest daily erosive events arose at the end of records and accumulated soil erosion increased over time, with no sign of exhaustion. In conclusion, the time compression pattern shown in this research in the USLE data set does not seem to be affected by soil exhaustion. Consequently, the most plausible explanation for the decrease in the contribution of aggregated n-largest events seems to be linked to finite-size effects for rain-wash erosion, which constrain the maximum erosion value events that can occur in a given area (Boardman and Favis-Mortlock, 1999). Therefore, as the time record enlarges, the number of events lower than the extreme values will increase. Whatever the magnitude, longer records under such an assumption should result in a decrease in the percentage of largest events. In any case, if soil exhaustion occurs, then the question would be to identify a point between a minimum length of record, to ensure that the measurements are trustworthy, and at the same time to avoid the effect of soil exhaustion. Wischmeier and Smith (1978) stated that “care must be taken to ensure that the duration is sufficient to account for cyclical effects and random fluctuations in uncontrolled variables whose effects are averaged in the USLE factor values”. The time frame varies from author to author and usually is expressed in years (Boix-Fayos et al., 2007; Lane and Kidwell, 2003; Ollesch and Vacca, 2002; Risse et al., 1993). We suggest using the largest event approach to select a temporal threshold value for soil erosion studies, taking into account not a period in years, but to register a minimum daily erosion events to achieve a threshold of soil eroded by the n-largest selected. 5. Conclusions The relationship between largest daily contribution events to total soil loss in a large set of plots from USLE database from various agricultural regions under different climate conditions, soil types, tillage systems and plant cover was studied. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows: i) soil erosion is a compressed process in time, independent of the occurrence of extreme events. A few number of events (the largest ones, whatever the magnitude of soil eroded) control the total soil eroded; ii) the analyses showed that the most important source of variation of percentage contribution of the n-largest daily event to total soil loss is caused by the total number of erosive events recorded, thus soil erosion compression in time is higher when the period of records is short, regardless of the occurrence of extreme events; and iii) no variations in this pattern among agricultural regions were found. The hypothesis presented in this paper is climate-independent and geographically generalized on the semi-continental scale of the USA. To further generalize on a global scale, new analyses of more detailed daily data sets from other climate conditions, such as Mediterranean, should be performed; iv) Given the negative relationship between the relative contribution to total soil loss by the n-largest event and time Please cite this article as: Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J.C., et al., A regional analysis of the effects of largest events on soil erosion, Catena (2012), doi:10.1016/j.catena.2012.03.006 6 J.C. Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al. / Catena 95 (2012) xxx–xxx (i.e. total events recorded), to avoid the bias induced by largest events in short records, and to validate the soil erosion rates of field research, we suggest considering a minimum number of daily events according to the percentage of soil eroded by the n-largest events selected, instead of a minimum number of years of field research on erosion plots. Acknowledgments An earlier version of this manuscript and research on the effects of the largest daily event on erosion and sediment transport were discussed with Prof. J.B. Thornes from 2006. His comments, suggestions and corrections allowed us to improve our research and draft. We would like to thank the USDA for making available the original dataset, and Dr P. 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