EXPORT OPPORTUNITY PROFILE (EOP) Ice Cream (Up-Date) Export Consultancy Unit (ECU) Marketing Consulting Division Rabi’II, 1428H (April, 2007G) 1 PURPOSE The purpose of this export opportunity is to investigate the potential for exporting Ice Cream from the KSA to international markets. It should be noted that this brief report is intended to help local manufacturers identify export opportunities in general. Interested investors should conduct more detailed studies to evaluate their opportunities, prior to entering their selected export markets. 2 PRODUCTS ICE CREAM is a frozen food made from a mixture of dairy products, such as milk, cream and non-fat milk, combined with sugars, flavourings, fruits, nuts, etc. Ice cream containing at least 1.4% egg yolks is called French ice cream or frozen custard. Ice cream and French ice cream contain a minimum of 10% milk fat and weigh not less than 4.5 pounds per gallon. Light ice cream is reduced in fat by at least 50% in comparison with an appropriate reference food Ice cream contains air (the more air, the lighter it will be). Functional ingredients, such as stabilizers and emulsifiers, are often added to the product to promote proper texture and enhance the eating experience. Basically, there are three primary market segments of the ice cream market and their respective sub- segments are: Hand held products: the largest category which comprise of:o o o o o o Water based lollies Cups Cones Ice cream sticks Bars and sandwiches Others – e.g. novelties These varieties are sold primarily through small groceries and baqallas from freezer units, supplied by processors & importers. Additionally, these items are sold through mobile vans, which also sell soft ice cream, and milk shakes. Take-home Hard Ice Cream: principally 1/2, 1, and 2 litters varieties sold in supermarkets Parlour Hard Ice Cream: retailed through ice cream parlours and secondarily via smaller mobile stalls in city center. Additionally, as would be expected from a seasonality point of view, ice cream consumption peaks during the summer periods and it reaches its lowest during the cold season in winter. Ice cream consumption peaks in summer periods of June – September. 3 LOCAL MANUFACTURERS The latest details of Industrial Licenses from Ministry of Commerce & Industry data are as follows: Number of licences issued to date Number of cancelled licenses Number of active licenses Total active licensed capacities : : : : 117 58 59 192.7 MM litters According to the previous source, there are 13 local producers with an estimated combined installed capacity on a single-shift basis (8 hours) of 178 million liters. It is to be noted that few factories are working on a three shift bases. The table below provides estimates of local sales and exports for the year 2005. Total Number of active Installed Capacity Local Sales Export Sales local producers (million litters) (million litters) (million litters) 13 178 26 0.282 Est. Available Capacity – (million litters) Avail Cap - % of Installed Capacity 151.72 85% As shown in the above table, it can be clearly seen that there is around 85% of local installed capacity available for export. The KSA producers’ range Ice Cream should utilize the idle capacity for export to countries where demand exists for these products. 4 HARMONISED CODES The customs/tariff codes used for ice cream is indicated by the following range of 6-digit HS (Harmonised System) Codes:HS CODE 210500 DESCRIPTION Ice cream and other edible ice, whether or not containing cocoa The above 6-digit HS Codes are internationally recognised codes that cover the range of Ice-Cream produced anywhere in the world including the KSA. All countries are allowed to add extra digits (eight digits and/or ten digits) to the Code to narrow product categories down and for their own statistical purposes. 5 EXPORT PERFORMANCE The Ice Cream market in the Kingdom is considered to be in a maturity stage where growth is minimal. The major suppliers of Ice cream in Saudi Arabia feel there is still considerable scope for further expansion of the market despite the low growth rate of this market. Compared with Western markets per capita consumption of ice cream at less than 3 litters per annum is still small indeed (USA 23 litters per capita). Overall, the domestic installed capacities for ice cream processing represent a significant over supply situation versus a no growth, relatively small and underdeveloped market demand trend. Unfortunately, the Kingdom’s export of ice cream is very minimal and can be neglected. The total export of Ice-Creams is around 282 thousand litter in 2005 and the growth rate of exports is dropped by around 21% compare to 2004. KSA Ice-Cream manufacturers exported around 0.16% of their total installed capacities (single-shift basis). Due to the high distribution costs for refrigerated products, strength of suppliers, especially in U.A.E. and Kuwait, and lack of product differentiation, represent strong barriers to entry. However, it is envisaged that current marketing activities should be developed to be in the level of other big players in Ice cream sector. An advantage for the KSA manufacturers is that their export markets are already fully familiar with the product ranges available in the market, hence, this makes accessing new export customers easier. Manufacturers, therefore, now need to focus on promoting their products, which should assist in securing further market penetration in their selected export markets. The table below illustrates exports trend and its percentage from the total installed capacity. Total Annual export sales 2003 (M litters) Annual export sales 2004 (M litters) Export % of Installed capacity Export 205 Export Growth Rate % 0.12% % of Installed capacity 357 - 0.20% 74% Annual export sales 2005 (M litters) % of Installed Export capacity 282 0.16% -21% As can be seen, there was a sharp increase in the export sales in 2004 by around 74%, whereas in 2005 the exports witnessed a decrease by around 21%. In general, the exported volume during the last three years is quit low and represents neglected percentage of the total installed capacity i.e. less than 1%. 6 EXPORT BARRIERS There are a number of export/trade barriers and opportunities that are identified below: Company Specific Barriers & Opportunities Lack of availability of commercial information or not having undertaken market research can be considered to be a barrier to entry, as specific country profiles that could highlight opportunities would not come to light. The internal corporate export structure and manpower resources could be a barrier or an advantage for companies. In this instance, some KSA companies are developing their export capabilities but perhaps need to put more emphasis on this development. Investment in manpower development for export and good MIS (management information systems) could pay dividends in the future. Many overseas companies will only purchase from those companies that have secured ISO 9000 certification and in some instances not having this certification could be a barrier. Market Specific Barriers & Opportunities Specifically for the food sector, the following points should be considered:o Slow movement of goods could become a barrier due to ‘useby/expiry date’ limitations, which could affect the shelf-life of the product concerned. o Maintaining food products at the appropriate temperature during its shelf-life (before, during and after transportation). o Matching the temperature needs of the product with the correct type of transportation vehicle to be used for delivery – e.g. frozen food shipped in refrigerated trucks. o Time delays due to any reason could affect the products in terms of: Shelf-life (shelf-life of cheese reduced due to transportation in incorrect vehicle type). ‘Use-by date’ expires prior to it being put on a shelf for sale and purchased. Temperature requirements are not met correctly – during transportation, storage and shelf presentation. As inappropriate transportation/storage could lead to damage, etc. Desk research should initially be carried out to determine the market viability for entry – this can be undertaken through written data relating to the target country and also via the internet. Having a good and reputable local agents/distributors can be a benefit as:o The exchange of information between the two parties minimises the information barriers and allows the exporter to have a better understanding of his target export markets. o Enables the exporter to have a physical representative in the target market, someone who is responsible for local distribution and sales. Conversely for the exporter, not knowing what is happening in the selected target export markets becomes a barrier. Selecting an inactive and/or poor agent/distributor could bar the exporter from marketing their good properly and professionally in the target market and, thus, this could be a barrier. In terms of the KSA’s overseas competition - companies outside the GCC wishing to export to the GCC, the unification of the GCC tariffs will be a barrier for imports from them; however, it will be a positive aspect for the KSA producers exporting to neighbouring GCC and Arab countries. Customs duties/tariffs can be a barrier for exporters - importing countries in many instances use this mechanism as a means of protecting their local industry. Trade agreements between two countries can sometimes either reduce duties/tariffs or exempt them. This means that in some instances a number of countries may have a preferential tariff advantage over other countries. 7 MAJOR INTERNATIONAL MARKETS The European Union and the USA are the major international markets importing IceCream. The growing international markets provide an opportunity for foreign competitors, including the KSA, to compete in their respective markets, subject to the imported products being able to meet the quality and price criteria for these individual markets. It is to be noted here that the total import value of the products sector being analysed in the following tables of this section may be slightly different from the total import value of its sector being highlighted in the previous section. The UN Statistics Division justified the matter on the basis that it is possible that aggregated data does not match up exactly with detailed data. This occurs sometimes due to (a) the rounding up/down of figures by reporting countries and (b) the aggregation of data using certain processing rules by COMTRADE. The table below shows the 15 major world importing countries for Ice-Cream during 2005 using the combined imports of HS Code: 210500. It can be seen that the 15 named importing countries purchased in excess of US $ 1.49 billion worth of Ice-Cream, with the top five countries accounting for around 42% of the total imports. 2005 - Major International Importing Countries for Ice-Cream Top Importers Value US $ Quantity - Litter %Share Price (US$/Litter) United Kingdom 234,597,035 83,002,135 10.57% 2.83 France 211,557,381 78,151,020 9.95% 2.71 Germany 185,968,000 64,826,700 8.25% 2.87 Spain 154,509,871 53,200,982 6.77% 2.90 Netherlands 104,360,389 48,013,628 6.11% 2.17 Belgium 94,044,132 40,763,118 5.19% 2.31 Italy 88,801,293 30,241,996 3.85% 2.94 Austria 60,537,612 27,536,325 3.51% 2.20 Portugal 59,737,696 25,275,021 3.22% 2.36 USA 47,533,127 24,949,456 3.18% 1.91 Sweden 56,958,648 24,009,226 3.06% 2.37 Denmark 50,753,673 20,988,860 2.67% 2.42 Japan 58,865,820 20,397,788 2.60% 2.89 Mexico 33,649,834 18,922,621 2.41% 1.78 Ireland 45,952,049 16,292,490 2.07% 2.82 Sup-Total 1,487,826,560 576,571,366 73.41% 2.58 Others 460,365,586 208,890,901 26.59% 2.20 Total 1,948,192,146 785,462,267 100% 2.48 8 MAJOR REGIONAL MARKETS The major importing countries of Ice-Cream products are outside the Middle East Region.. Hence to enter these international markets, the KSA producers will need time and funds in order to formulate an export strategies and an export marketing plan that could be successfully implemented – based on the requirements of the target market(s). While the exporter is developing the company’s medium to long terms export plans to potentially enter international markets, a short term development that can be more easily set up, is to expand into markets in the surrounding countries and the Region as a whole. While the markets closer to home are relatively small, they nonetheless offer the exporter the potential to develop nearby markets, although in some markets there could be competition from local producers as well as other imports. The table below, uses UN Comtrade and GIOC data for the year 2005 to identified:- (a) the imports size in MENA countries, and (b) any KSA recorded exports to those markets, as per the following table. It is to be noted that there are other MENA countries, which have not submitted their imports data and therefore not included. Importing country Imports from the World ( 2005) Value $ Volume - Litter Imports from KSA (2005) KSA Market share % of World imports (in volume terms) Value $ Volume - Litter 839,053.19 415,926 21.8% 1,184,686 171,284 70,233 5.9% 1,841,268 33,695.70 9,096 0.5% Bahrain 4,021,300 1,908,312 Jordan 1,960,451 Oman 6,760,151 UAE 10,655,634 2,781,560 361,907.14 114,789 4.1% Qatar 4,972,211 1,840,034 198,057.69 95,400 5.2% Sudan 29,737 9,126 28,892 8,866 97.2% Turkey 1,794,863 784,413 - - 0.0% Yemen 239,978 271,720 60,974 166,891 61.4% Total 30,434,325 10,621,119 1,693,864 881,201 8.3% Source: Comtrade& GOIC Countries closer to home offer potential export opportunities for the local producers, but the respective market size for the Countries is relatively small in comparison to the major importers. However, this should not deter the local producer from entering MENA markets as this can:- (a) help to iron out any initial export problems that the local exporter may experience due to implementation of his export delivery systems in the MENA markets, and (b) help the exporter to develop a good, working export marketing plan that can be tried out in MENA countries before being implemented in more distant export locations. It is worth to mention that the total imports from KSA in the above table contradict with these in the export performance section. This could be attributed to the deference of sources, as the data was extracted from three databases FTS, GOIC and Comtrade. 9 MARKET TRENDS – IMPORTS & EXPORTS To provide a better insight for local producers of Ice-Cream, the tablebelow provide some historic information on world product trends in U.S $ million. These can be utilized, in a general manner, to provide some indications of likely future trends for the products:Year 2001 1,187 1,226 Imports Exports Source: Comtrade U.S $ millions 2003 1,713 1,759 2002 1,386 1,365 2004 1,900 1,921 2005 1,958 2,037 10 ESTIMATE OF IMPORTER’S LANDED COSTS From the import/export statistics, it has been possible to ascertain an estimate of the average landed costs for Ice-Cream HS Code: 210500 for the 15 major producers. This has been calculated to be around $2.58/litter for the year 2005. Additionally, the landed costs of some of MENA countries, during 2005, have also been calculated and details provided as follows:AVERAGE LANDED COST IN SOME MENA COUNTRIES ($/Litter) Bahrain Jordan Oman UAE Qatar Sudan Turkey Yemen AVE. LANDED COST $/Litter 2.11 1.65 3.67 3.83 2.70 3.26 2.29 0.88 2.55 It should be noted that the quantities imported vary from country to country; hence, this is reflected in the average landed costs – i.e. generally, lower levels of import tend to be at a higher cost and visa versa. It is hoped that this information should assist local KSA companies to ascertain, in a very general way, whether their respective products are likely to be competitive in the above identified export markets or not. 11 LOCAL PRODUCERS & DISTRIBUTORS IN THE POTENTIAL EXPORT MARKETS In the international market, it can be quite difficult for local exporter to easily identify:(a) their potential local competition, and (b) possible local agents/distributors that they can work with in that target markets. Any exporter wishing to develop overseas markets will need to undertake initial primary and secondary market research to identify the relevant information that needs to be sought from that market. The short list below, for Ice-Cream products, is an example of the information needed to identify and contact overseas producers/distributors dealing in the selected target markets. This and further information can be obtained via website www.kompass.com. COUNTRY COMPANY DESCRIPTION Oman Al Duroob Trading Co Ice cream and sorbet Lebanon Bachir Frères Sarl Ice cream (trade) Al Manal Ice Cream Co. Ice cream, dairy Ice cream, egg based Ice cream, fruit pulp and juice based Ice cream, chocolate coated Ice cream, wrapped UAE Turkey Sartrade Tic San ve Turizm Soft ices Iran Barkat Dairy Products P.J.S Dairy ice-cream Dairy ice-cream lollies Koch Tiefkuhlkost Ice cream, dairy Ice cream, vegetable fat based Ice cream, artificially flavoured Ice cream, mixed Ice cream lollies Ice cream, bulk Ice cream in cartons Ice cream in cups and tubs Ice cream, wrapped Ice lollies Germany CONTACT DETAILS Ruwi 112, Oman Phone:+ 968 705372 Fax:+ 968 708200 Ground floor, Moukarzel Building, Highway Jal El-Dib (Metn), Lebanon Phone:+ 961 4 414452 ; +Mob. tel.: 961 3 635980/635982 Fax:+ 961 4 982185 PO Box 1942 Ajman, Indl. Area, Ajman, UAE Phone:+ 971 6 7482347 Fax:+ 971 6 7482349 Husrev Gerede Cad.Tozan Apt., 75/1 D:11 Tesvikiye, 80200 Istanbul, Turkey Phone:+ 90 212 236 1253 Mob: -54-236 0332-236 0281 Fax:+ 90 212 2597678 No.208,10th Golbon St.,11th Ave.,Karaj old Road., 13876 Tehran, Iran Phone:+ 98 21 6816988, 6801125 Fax:+ 98 21 6816989 Ollenhauerstraße 17 13403 Berlin Germany Phone:+ 49 30 4 96 20 82 Fax:+ 49 30 4 96 05 13 Egypt Egyptian Trading Ice cream, dairy Italy Il Mercante Srl Ice cream, dairy Ice cream, mixed Spain Arturo Lopez Rodas, S.L France Gelso 4, Hassan Sabri Street, Zamalek, Cairo, Egypt Phone:+ 20 2 7363105/7357510/7364163/7351815/7363568 Fax:+ 20 2 7351116 Via Giardini 605, 41100 MODENA (MO), Italy Phone:+ 39 059 353343 Fax:+ 39 059 358607 Ice cream, dairy Ice cream, fruit pulp and juice based Ice cream in cups and tubs Ice cream, dairy Ice cream, fruit pulp and juice based Ice cream in cups and tubs Ctra. General Santander-Bilbao, Km. 2 - San Salvador El Astillero 39610, Cantabria, Spain Phone:+ 34 942 542 450 Fax:+ 34 942 558 416 ZI Thibault, 6, Rue Jean Grandjean, 31100 Toulouse, France Phone:+ 33 5 62 87 48 00 Fax:+ 33 5 62 87 48 01 ; + 33 5 62 87 48 20 12 TRANSPORTATION COSTS The cost of road transportation to neighbouring countries is dependent upon the type of goods to be transported, the weight/volume and the distance. In the case of this type of product, road transportation is usually undertaken using a 40 foot trailer of 22 tonnes. Due to the nature of Ice cream products, a trailer should be refrigerated in order to preserve Ice-Creams. The cost of refrigerated trailer is higher than regular trailer by around 35%. An indication of average road transport cost to various surrounding countries, from Riyadh and Dammam of a 22 tonne trailer (Non- refrigerated) are given as follows:Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Egypt Lebanon Syria Yemen City Muscat Salalah Sohar Dubai, Sharjah Al-Ain Abu Dhabi Cost Per Truck (22 Ton) - SR GCC 950 1,650 – 2,042 2,042 – 2,850 4,800 2,750 1,700 1,650 1,900 1,650 NON-GCC 7,300 9,282 7,000 5,500 Cost Per Ton - SR 43.18 75.00 – 92.82 92.82 – 129.55 218.18 125.00 77.27 75.00 86.36 75.00 331.82 421.91 318.18 250.00 Regarding average sea freight costs, refrigerated container could be higher than the standard container by 40-60%. The following tables provide ocean freights of 20 and 40 foot standard containers for some destinations. Ocean rate from KSA to Africa To Africa Ports From / Jeddah USD$ 20 Foot 40 Foot Port Sudan 850 1,400 Mogadiscio 1,500 1,900 Cotonou 3,500 4,500 Ocean rate from KSA to India Semi Continent To ISC (India Semi continent) From / Dammam USD$ Ports 20 Foot 40 Foot Mumbai 425 650 Karachi 425 650 Colombo 700 1,050 Ocean rate from KSA to Europe To Europe Ports From / Jeddah From / Dammam USD$ 20 Foot 40 Foot Hamburg 850 1,100 Rotterdam 850 1,100 Le Haver 850 1,100 Southampton 850 1,100 Hamburg 1,050 1,400 Rotterdam 1,050 1,400 Le Haver 1,050 1,400 Southampton 1,050 1,400 13 CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATION In conclusion, the KSA has about 151.72 million letters of surplus capacity of Ice-Cream, which equates to a conservative export potential of around $346.27 million (SR 1.411 billion). Additionally, the Saudi surplus capacity (one shift) represents around 22.7% of the total world imports. The aim of this report is to identify major importing countries for the Ice-Cream, which could represent an export opportunity for Saudi producers. The following are the main highlights of the report: World Imports o o The major importing countries for the HS Code: 210500, in 2005, were the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Netherlands. The total value of imports to these countries, in 2005, for the above HS Codes was about $ 891 million. o o World Exports o o For the KSA exporter these and nearby countries could be investigated to ascertain the commercial probability and viability of entering these potential target markets – bearing in mind that ice cream is a difficult product to transport as it requires refrigeration during transport, storage, and display. The import data indicates an average international landed price for the above HS Codes to be in the region of $1.78/littre to $2.94/littre. The major exporting countries for the HS Code: 210500, in 2005, were France, Germany, Belgium, Italy and Spain. The KSA exporter should investigate these countries to ascertain how they have developed their export markets and what are their technocommercial and financial parameters for exporting. Arabian & Other Nearby Countries o o Although the surrounding market is small, several KSA exporters have started to develop their export markets in these countries. More effort needs to be undertaken by the local exporters to enable the KSA to become a major exporting Country to the surrounding Arab and non-Arab Countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Furthermore, the following are the key points and advice for the exporters to consider in developing their overseas opportunities: KSA exporters have what it takes to compete in the international markets, but seem to lack data of potential markets. Hence, in the first age, it is recommended for new exporters to look for qualified agents and distributors in order to provide them with sufficient information and facilitate their entering and penetrating in targeted market(s). AS KSA becomes an official member in WTO, current exporters have to plan to implement direct export strategy through opining their own subsidiaries in the international markets instead of hiring an agent, if that is evaluated to advance their efforts. Attending international exhibition is important key export success factor, as it gives the opportunity to establish a trade relationship with a number of distributors and agents within the beverages sector. Exporters have to learn more about the international specifications to avoid risk of returned shipments. Specifications can be sought directly by exporters from the regulatory organization in the targeted markets, through contacting prospect agent to provide the exporters with the specification from the regulatory organization, or from specialized firm of international business such as Export Development Center / Trade Point. In summary, while some exporting is being undertaken, more effort could be directed towards developing further export markets - some export opportunities have been identified above. It is believed that these markets offer promise to local producers and the local companies are encouraged to undertake evaluation of these markets to assess their exporting potential. Furthermore, the KSA producers are encouraged to contact local export insurance and credit institutions in order to utilise the available facilities for export credit and the insurance programmes cover for higher risk countries. The Saudi Export Program (SEP), is operated under the Saudi Fund for Development (SDF) in Riyadh. KSA exporters should contact the SEP, who can help them expand their export activities and assist them to increase their sales volumes to more countries, with minimum risk.
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