FX Viewpoint
Corporate FX &
Structured Products
Tel: 6349-1888 / 1881
Fixed Income &
Structured Products
Tel: 6349-1810
Investments & Structured
Product
Tel: 6349-1886
Interest Rate Derivatives
Tel: 6349-1899
Treasury Research &
Strategy
Tel: 6530-4887
Emmanuel Ng
+65 6530 4073
[email protected]
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Asia – Net portfolio capital inflow update

The net capital inflow situation for the region in aggregate improved in the
past week.

Net inflows are now supportive of the KRW, INR (USD-INR slumping below
67.00), IDR (USD-IDR tripping below 13,000), and THB.

The net inflow situation for the TWD remains neutral, exposing the USD-TWD
to two-way risks and perhaps suggestive of an overly depressed pair.

Despite some moderation in net outflow pressure, the PHP remains under
negative pressure, with the USD-PHP clearing 48.00 in a hurry.
28 September 2016
FX Viewpoint
South Korea
10000
USD mn
South Korea
1060
1250
1080
8000
1100
1200
6000
Latest Ob
4000
1140
2000
1160
USD-KRW
1120
1150
1100
1180
0
1200
-2000
1050
1220
-4000
1000
-5000
1240
May-2015
Aug-2015
Oct-2015
Jan-2016
NFB: Bond & Eq 20D RS
Apr-2016
Jul-2016
Sep-2016
0
5000
SOUTH KOREA
30000
10000
15000
20000
NFB: Bond & Eq 20D RS
USD-KRW
South Korea
USD mn
1000
1250
1020
25000
1040
20000
1200
1060
Latest Ob
1080
1100
10000
1120
1140
5000
USD-KRW
15000
1150
1100
1160
0
1180
1050
1200
-5000
1220
-10000
21-Feb-12
27-Nov-12
03-Sep-13
10-Jun-14
NFB: Bond & Equity:RS60
17-Mar-15
22-Dec-15
1240
27-Sep-16
1000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
Bond & Eq RS 60D
USD-KRW (RHS)
Taiwan
6000
USD mn
Taiwan
30.0
34
5000
30.5
4000
Latest Ob
33
31.0
3000
32
1000
32.0
0
32.5
USD-TWD
31.5
2000
31
30
-1000
33.0
-2000
29
33.5
-3000
-4000
28
-10000
34.0
May-2015
Aug-2015
Dec-2015
NFB: 20d RS
Mar-2016
Jun-2016
Sep-2016
-6000
-2000
2000
6000
NFB: 20D RS
USD-TWD
TWD vs Net foreign equity interest
Taiwan
12000
USD mn
29.0
34
29.5
10000
33
30.0
8000
Latest Ob
30.5
6000
32
31.5
2000
32.0
0
32.5
-2000
USD-TWD
31.0
4000
31
30
33.0
29
-4000
33.5
-6000
34.0
22-Nov-13
09-Aug-14
60-day RS
26-Apr-15
USD-TWD
Treasury & Strategy Research
11-Jan-16
27-Sep-16
28
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
TSEC net foreign buying RS60
2
28 September 2016
FX Viewpoint
INDIA
5000
India
63.0
USD mn
70
63.5
Latest Ob
4000
64.0
3000
65
64.5
2000
65.0
66.0
0
66.5
-1000
USD-INR
65.5
1000
60
55
67.0
67.5
-2000
50
68.0
-3000
68.5
-4000
45
-10000
69.0
Aug-2015
Dec-2015
Mar-2016
NFB: Bond & Eq RS 20D
Jun-2016
Sep-2016
-5000
0
5000
10000
NFB: Bond & Eq 20D RS
USD-INR
INR vs net foreign bond & equity interest
20000
India
57
USD mn
70
58
15000
Latest Ob
59
65
60
10000
61
63
0
64
USD-INR
62
5000
60
55
65
-5000
66
50
67
-10000
68
-15000
45
-20000
69
Jan-14
Jul-14
Feb-15
RS60
Aug-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
-10000
0
10000
20000
SEBI net bond & eq RS60
USD-INR
Indonesia
5000
USD mn
Indonesia
12800
15000
13000
4000
3000
2000
13200
14000
13400
13000
Latest Ob
1000
13800
0
14000
-1000
USD-IDR
13600
14200
-2000
12000
11000
10000
14400
-3000
9000
14600
-4000
8000
-7000
14800
May-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Bond & Equity:20D RS
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Indonesia
-1000
2000
5000
Indonesia
USD mn
9500
8000
10000
6000
10500
15000
14000
11000
4000
Latest Ob
13000
11500
2000
12000
0
12500
-2000
USD-IDR
10000
-4000
Bond & Equity: 20D RS
USD-IDR
12000
11000
13000
-4000
13500
-6000
14000
-8000
14500
-10000
03-Sep-13
10-Jun-14
Bond & Equity: 60D RS
17-Mar-15
USD-IDR
Treasury & Strategy Research
22-Dec-15
15000
27-Sep-16
10000
9000
8000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
Net foreign bond & eq RS60
3
28 September 2016
FX Viewpoint
Thailand
Thailand
2500
USD mn
32.0
37
32.5
2000
36
Latest Ob
33.0
1500
35
33.5
1000
34
34.5
500
35.0
0
USD-THB
34.0
33
32
35.5
31
36.0
30
36.5
29
-500
-1000
-1500
Aug-2015
Dec-2015
Net bond & equity WTD RS20
May-2016
28
-3000
37.0
Sep-2016
-1000
1000
3000
5000
Net bond & equity WTD RS20
USD-THB
Thailand
5000
USD mn
Thailand
28
37
29
4000
36
Latest Ob
30
3000
35
31
34
32
1000
33
USD-THB
2000
33
32
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
03-Sep-13
10-Jun-14
17-Mar-15
Net bond & equity WTD RS60
22-Dec-15
34
31
35
30
36
29
28
-4000
37
27-Sep-16
-2000
0
Philippines
600
2000
4000
6000
8000
1000
1500
Net bond & equity WTD RS60
USD-THB
Philippines
USD mn
44.0
49
44.5
400
47
45.5
46
-200
46.5
USD-PHP
0
46.0
Latest Ob
48
45.0
200
45
44
-400
47.0
43
47.5
42
-800
48.0
41
-1000
48.5
Sep-2016
-600
Aug-2015
Dec-2015
NFB: RS20
May-2016
40
-1500
-1000
-500
PHP vs Net foreign equity interest
1500
0
500
NFB: RS20
USD-PHP
Philippines
USD mn
USD mn
40
49
41
48
1000
47
43
46
44
0
45
-500
USD-PHP
500
42
Latest Ob
45
44
46
43
47
42
48
41
-1000
-1500
03-Sep-13
10-Jun-14
17-Mar-15
22-Dec-15
49
27-Sep-16
40
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Net foreign buying RS60
USD-PHP
NFB: RS 60
Treasury & Strategy Research
4
28 September 2016
FX Viewpoint
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