Political Science 10 – American Politics, Political Parties,
Participation, & Elections
Loren Collingwood, Political Science
May 15, 2014
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Poll of Hillary Clinton in Ohio
Clinton Polling in Ohio
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Obama Approval Rating
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Current Events: Fire!
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Current Events: Minimum Wage Protests
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House Competitive Districts
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House Competitive Districts
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House Competitive Districts
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House Competitive Districts
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Party ID Differs by Demographic (2008)
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Political Participation
Political participation takes many forms: voting; give money to
politicians/political organizations; write letters to the editor; publish
articles; attend rallies; volunteer for campaigns; hold campaign signs
and post signs in front yard; lobby members of Congress
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Political Participation
Political participation takes many forms: voting; give money to
politicians/political organizations; write letters to the editor; publish
articles; attend rallies; volunteer for campaigns; hold campaign signs
and post signs in front yard; lobby members of Congress
Voting is the most common form of political participation
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Political Participation
Political participation takes many forms: voting; give money to
politicians/political organizations; write letters to the editor; publish
articles; attend rallies; volunteer for campaigns; hold campaign signs
and post signs in front yard; lobby members of Congress
Voting is the most common form of political participation
Online political participation is surging. As of 2012, nearly 7 in 10
Americans read the news online. In the same year, 40% of Americans
used Smartphones.
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Political Participation
Political participation takes many forms: voting; give money to
politicians/political organizations; write letters to the editor; publish
articles; attend rallies; volunteer for campaigns; hold campaign signs
and post signs in front yard; lobby members of Congress
Voting is the most common form of political participation
Online political participation is surging. As of 2012, nearly 7 in 10
Americans read the news online. In the same year, 40% of Americans
used Smartphones.
Just 4% of likely voters went online for election info in 1996; this
number jumped to 61% in 2012 (Pew Internet and American Life
Project)
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Political Participation
Political participation takes many forms: voting; give money to
politicians/political organizations; write letters to the editor; publish
articles; attend rallies; volunteer for campaigns; hold campaign signs
and post signs in front yard; lobby members of Congress
Voting is the most common form of political participation
Online political participation is surging. As of 2012, nearly 7 in 10
Americans read the news online. In the same year, 40% of Americans
used Smartphones.
Just 4% of likely voters went online for election info in 1996; this
number jumped to 61% in 2012 (Pew Internet and American Life
Project)
The young (ages 18-29) were much more likely than middle-aged and
older respondents to be engaged in presidential electoral activities
online
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Voter Turnout
Today, voting rights are granted to all adults over age 18; but some
states revoke that right for felons/mentally incompetent
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Voter Turnout
Today, voting rights are granted to all adults over age 18; but some
states revoke that right for felons/mentally incompetent
Over time, women, racial minorities, and young adults have gained
access to suffrage (the right to vote)
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Voter Turnout
Today, voting rights are granted to all adults over age 18; but some
states revoke that right for felons/mentally incompetent
Over time, women, racial minorities, and young adults have gained
access to suffrage (the right to vote)
But turnout – the percent of eligible individuals who actually vote –
remains low
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Voter Turnout
Today, voting rights are granted to all adults over age 18; but some
states revoke that right for felons/mentally incompetent
Over time, women, racial minorities, and young adults have gained
access to suffrage (the right to vote)
But turnout – the percent of eligible individuals who actually vote –
remains low
6 in 10 eligible Americans vote in presidential elections; turnout for
midterm elections (elections that fall between presidential elections) is
typically much lower around 33%. For local elections turnout is even
lower
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Voter Turnout
Today, voting rights are granted to all adults over age 18; but some
states revoke that right for felons/mentally incompetent
Over time, women, racial minorities, and young adults have gained
access to suffrage (the right to vote)
But turnout – the percent of eligible individuals who actually vote –
remains low
6 in 10 eligible Americans vote in presidential elections; turnout for
midterm elections (elections that fall between presidential elections) is
typically much lower around 33%. For local elections turnout is even
lower
By contrast, most European and Western democracies national voter
turnout is between 70 and 90%
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Why Do People Vote?
Three factors organize our understanding of voting in elections:
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Why Do People Vote?
Three factors organize our understanding of voting in elections:
Socio-economic status (SES) and attitudes about politics
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Why Do People Vote?
Three factors organize our understanding of voting in elections:
Socio-economic status (SES) and attitudes about politics
Political environment (national sweep election); the degree of political
contestation between the parties and candidates
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Why Do People Vote?
Three factors organize our understanding of voting in elections:
Socio-economic status (SES) and attitudes about politics
Political environment (national sweep election); the degree of political
contestation between the parties and candidates
State electoral laws that shape the political process
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Why do people vote? – Socio-economic Status
Americans with higher levels of education, more income, and
higher-level occupations participate much more in politics than their
lower status counterparts
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Why do people vote? – Socio-economic Status
Americans with higher levels of education, more income, and
higher-level occupations participate much more in politics than their
lower status counterparts
Education level is most important factor in predicting whether an
individual will vote
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Why do people vote? – Socio-economic Status
Americans with higher levels of education, more income, and
higher-level occupations participate much more in politics than their
lower status counterparts
Education level is most important factor in predicting whether an
individual will vote
Income level is important factor when we look at campaign
contributions
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Why do people vote? – Socio-economic Status
Americans with higher levels of education, more income, and
higher-level occupations participate much more in politics than their
lower status counterparts
Education level is most important factor in predicting whether an
individual will vote
Income level is important factor when we look at campaign
contributions
Racial minorities often less likely to participate in politics
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Turnout by Race (Census Bureau Estimates)
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Overtime Change in Electorate (Census Bureau
Estimates)
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Why do people vote? – Political Environment
Political environment: Whether people have resources, feel engaged,
and are recruited to participate in politics depends very much on their
social setting; what organizations they belong to, what their parents
are like
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Why do people vote? – Political Environment
Political environment: Whether people have resources, feel engaged,
and are recruited to participate in politics depends very much on their
social setting; what organizations they belong to, what their parents
are like
Churches are important social institution for fostering political
participation
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Why do people vote? – Political Environment
Political environment: Whether people have resources, feel engaged,
and are recruited to participate in politics depends very much on their
social setting; what organizations they belong to, what their parents
are like
Churches are important social institution for fostering political
participation
Whether parties/candidates have strong mobilization campaigns. If
voters are mobilized, they are more likely to vote
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Why do people vote? – Political Environment
Political environment: Whether people have resources, feel engaged,
and are recruited to participate in politics depends very much on their
social setting; what organizations they belong to, what their parents
are like
Churches are important social institution for fostering political
participation
Whether parties/candidates have strong mobilization campaigns. If
voters are mobilized, they are more likely to vote
Mobilization: The process by which large numbers of people are
organized to a political activity
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Why do people vote? – Political Environment
Political environment: Whether people have resources, feel engaged,
and are recruited to participate in politics depends very much on their
social setting; what organizations they belong to, what their parents
are like
Churches are important social institution for fostering political
participation
Whether parties/candidates have strong mobilization campaigns. If
voters are mobilized, they are more likely to vote
Mobilization: The process by which large numbers of people are
organized to a political activity
Much of the drop-off in political participation is accounted for by
reductions in political mobilization (Rosenstone and Hansen)
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Why do people vote? – Political Environment
Political environment: Whether people have resources, feel engaged,
and are recruited to participate in politics depends very much on their
social setting; what organizations they belong to, what their parents
are like
Churches are important social institution for fostering political
participation
Whether parties/candidates have strong mobilization campaigns. If
voters are mobilized, they are more likely to vote
Mobilization: The process by which large numbers of people are
organized to a political activity
Much of the drop-off in political participation is accounted for by
reductions in political mobilization (Rosenstone and Hansen)
Competitive elections: Districts where two candidates actively
compete show higher turnout than non-competitive districts
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Overtime Voter Turnout
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Why do people vote? – State Electoral Laws
State electoral laws vary by state; create formal barriers to voting that
can reduce participation. This is how the South was able to
disfranchise African-Americans until the mid-1960s.
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Why do people vote? – State Electoral Laws
State electoral laws vary by state; create formal barriers to voting that
can reduce participation. This is how the South was able to
disfranchise African-Americans until the mid-1960s.
Most states require citizens to register to vote (compared to other
countries where registration is automatic)
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Why do people vote? – State Electoral Laws
State electoral laws vary by state; create formal barriers to voting that
can reduce participation. This is how the South was able to
disfranchise African-Americans until the mid-1960s.
Most states require citizens to register to vote (compared to other
countries where registration is automatic)
Most states require people to register to vote 15-30 days prior to
Election Day. A few states offer same-day registration; turnout is
higher there.
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Why do people vote? – State Electoral Laws
State electoral laws vary by state; create formal barriers to voting that
can reduce participation. This is how the South was able to
disfranchise African-Americans until the mid-1960s.
Most states require citizens to register to vote (compared to other
countries where registration is automatic)
Most states require people to register to vote 15-30 days prior to
Election Day. A few states offer same-day registration; turnout is
higher there.
Registration requirements reduce voting by the young, those with low
education/income because registration requires higher political
involvement, planning, and effort than does the act of voting itself.
Young people change residences frequently.
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Voter turnout in democratic nations 1945-2008
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How Voters Decide
Partisanship
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How Voters Decide
Partisanship
People with strong party identification vote at higher rates, even if the
contest is not competitive.
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How Voters Decide
Partisanship
People with strong party identification vote at higher rates, even if the
contest is not competitive.
Issues and policy preferences (e.g., does candidate voice same position
as me on “the environment”?)
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How Voters Decide
Partisanship
People with strong party identification vote at higher rates, even if the
contest is not competitive.
Issues and policy preferences (e.g., does candidate voice same position
as me on “the environment”?)
Candidate characteristics (e.g., is the candidate charismatic, same
race as me, have nice hair, strong background in business?)
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How Voters Decide
Partisanship
People with strong party identification vote at higher rates, even if the
contest is not competitive.
Issues and policy preferences (e.g., does candidate voice same position
as me on “the environment”?)
Candidate characteristics (e.g., is the candidate charismatic, same
race as me, have nice hair, strong background in business?)
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How Voters Decide: Partisanship
Most voters feel a sense of identification/kinship with either
Democratic or Republican party
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How Voters Decide: Partisanship
Most voters feel a sense of identification/kinship with either
Democratic or Republican party
Often handed down from parents to children and reinforced via
cultural/social ties
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How Voters Decide: Partisanship
Most voters feel a sense of identification/kinship with either
Democratic or Republican party
Often handed down from parents to children and reinforced via
cultural/social ties
This identification predisposes voters towards their party’s candidates
and against the opposing party.
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How Voters Decide: Partisanship
Most voters feel a sense of identification/kinship with either
Democratic or Republican party
Often handed down from parents to children and reinforced via
cultural/social ties
This identification predisposes voters towards their party’s candidates
and against the opposing party.
However, party loyalty has declined over time, especially with the rise
of a large immigrant population.
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How Voters Decide: Partisanship
Most voters feel a sense of identification/kinship with either
Democratic or Republican party
Often handed down from parents to children and reinforced via
cultural/social ties
This identification predisposes voters towards their party’s candidates
and against the opposing party.
However, party loyalty has declined over time, especially with the rise
of a large immigrant population.
Partisanship is long-standing; once formed, it rarely changes. Except
during times of realignments (New Deal, and then also after Civil
Rights Era)
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How Voters Decide: 2012 Vote by Party
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How Voters Decide: Issues/Policy Preferences
Candidates take strong stands on issues to differentiate themselves
from other members of their party or past leaders; or from their
general election opponent.
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How Voters Decide: Issues/Policy Preferences
Candidates take strong stands on issues to differentiate themselves
from other members of their party or past leaders; or from their
general election opponent.
However, candidates often obscure their positions on issues so as to
not exclude certain groups of voters, or send cues to voters that they
are too conservative/liberal for them.
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How Voters Decide: Issues/Policy Preferences
Candidates take strong stands on issues to differentiate themselves
from other members of their party or past leaders; or from their
general election opponent.
However, candidates often obscure their positions on issues so as to
not exclude certain groups of voters, or send cues to voters that they
are too conservative/liberal for them.
Difficult to vote based on issues when candidates only address safe
topics or seem to differ little on important issues
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How Voters Decide: Issues/Policy Preferences
Candidates take strong stands on issues to differentiate themselves
from other members of their party or past leaders; or from their
general election opponent.
However, candidates often obscure their positions on issues so as to
not exclude certain groups of voters, or send cues to voters that they
are too conservative/liberal for them.
Difficult to vote based on issues when candidates only address safe
topics or seem to differ little on important issues
Most important issue for 2012 campaign was the “economy.” In 2004,
the top issue was “terrorism.”
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Candidate Characteristics
In general, voters may be proud to see someone of their
ethnic/racial/religious group vying for office (Think African Americans
and Obama, Mormons and Romney)
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Candidate Characteristics
In general, voters may be proud to see someone of their
ethnic/racial/religious group vying for office (Think African Americans
and Obama, Mormons and Romney)
Religion
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Candidate Characteristics
In general, voters may be proud to see someone of their
ethnic/racial/religious group vying for office (Think African Americans
and Obama, Mormons and Romney)
Religion
Race and ethnicity
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Candidate Characteristics
In general, voters may be proud to see someone of their
ethnic/racial/religious group vying for office (Think African Americans
and Obama, Mormons and Romney)
Religion
Race and ethnicity
Gender: For many years, voters were wary of supporting women
candidates. This has declined in recent years
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Candidate Characteristics
In general, voters may be proud to see someone of their
ethnic/racial/religious group vying for office (Think African Americans
and Obama, Mormons and Romney)
Religion
Race and ethnicity
Gender: For many years, voters were wary of supporting women
candidates. This has declined in recent years
Social background
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Candidate Characteristics
In general, voters may be proud to see someone of their
ethnic/racial/religious group vying for office (Think African Americans
and Obama, Mormons and Romney)
Religion
Race and ethnicity
Gender: For many years, voters were wary of supporting women
candidates. This has declined in recent years
Social background
Perceived personality traits: Decisiveness, honesty, vigor, trustworthy,
weak–strong
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Candidate Characteristics
In general, voters may be proud to see someone of their
ethnic/racial/religious group vying for office (Think African Americans
and Obama, Mormons and Romney)
Religion
Race and ethnicity
Gender: For many years, voters were wary of supporting women
candidates. This has declined in recent years
Social background
Perceived personality traits: Decisiveness, honesty, vigor, trustworthy,
weak–strong
Career: Governor, Senator, successful in business (CEO) more credible
than a postman (not that there’s anything wrong with being a
postman)
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Five Types of Elections
Primary: Parties choose candidates who will run in the general
elections. Primaries do not elect people to office.
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Five Types of Elections
Primary: Parties choose candidates who will run in the general
elections. Primaries do not elect people to office.
General: Determine who gets to hold office. Usually draws the most
voters (although not historically in the South)
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Five Types of Elections
Primary: Parties choose candidates who will run in the general
elections. Primaries do not elect people to office.
General: Determine who gets to hold office. Usually draws the most
voters (although not historically in the South)
Runoff: If a candidate does not win a majority in the general election,
some states hold a runoff between the two highest vote-getters.
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Five Types of Elections
Primary: Parties choose candidates who will run in the general
elections. Primaries do not elect people to office.
General: Determine who gets to hold office. Usually draws the most
voters (although not historically in the South)
Runoff: If a candidate does not win a majority in the general election,
some states hold a runoff between the two highest vote-getters.
Referendum elections
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Five Types of Elections
Primary: Parties choose candidates who will run in the general
elections. Primaries do not elect people to office.
General: Determine who gets to hold office. Usually draws the most
voters (although not historically in the South)
Runoff: If a candidate does not win a majority in the general election,
some states hold a runoff between the two highest vote-getters.
Referendum elections
Popular referenda and initiative: 24 states, citizens petition to place
issue on ballot for a vote
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Five Types of Elections
Primary: Parties choose candidates who will run in the general
elections. Primaries do not elect people to office.
General: Determine who gets to hold office. Usually draws the most
voters (although not historically in the South)
Runoff: If a candidate does not win a majority in the general election,
some states hold a runoff between the two highest vote-getters.
Referendum elections
Popular referenda and initiative: 24 states, citizens petition to place
issue on ballot for a vote
Legislative referenda: all 50 states legislatures refer policy to the public
for a popular vote
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Five Types of Elections
Primary: Parties choose candidates who will run in the general
elections. Primaries do not elect people to office.
General: Determine who gets to hold office. Usually draws the most
voters (although not historically in the South)
Runoff: If a candidate does not win a majority in the general election,
some states hold a runoff between the two highest vote-getters.
Referendum elections
Popular referenda and initiative: 24 states, citizens petition to place
issue on ballot for a vote
Legislative referenda: all 50 states legislatures refer policy to the public
for a popular vote
Recall: Recall elections: 18 states, citizens vote to remove elected
official from office
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Electoral College
Founders created electoral college because citizens were not trusted to
make good decisions.
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Electoral College
Founders created electoral college because citizens were not trusted to
make good decisions.
Even today, citizens do not directly vote for president, but rather for
electors.
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Electoral College
Founders created electoral college because citizens were not trusted to
make good decisions.
Even today, citizens do not directly vote for president, but rather for
electors.
State electoral votes equals number of U.S. Representatives plus
Senators (2)
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Electoral College
Founders created electoral college because citizens were not trusted to
make good decisions.
Even today, citizens do not directly vote for president, but rather for
electors.
State electoral votes equals number of U.S. Representatives plus
Senators (2)
All states but Maine and Nebraska allocate all electoral votes to the
popular vote winner.
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Electoral College Distribution 2012 Election
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