Green Revolution in Kerala: A Discourse on Technology and Nature V. Santhakumar and R. Rajagopalan Abstract This paper attempts to interpret the known failure of the Green Revolution in Kerala in light of the crucial influence of climatic and geographical factors on the performance of the Green Revolution package in the region. Based on the analysis of the experiments conducted by the scientists of the Kerala Agricultural University (KAU), this paper shows that the net effect of the Green Revolution technology was not impressive even in the research stations. However, an analysis of the discourses on, and the policies of, agricultural development in Kerala shows the complete neglect of these "natural" limiting factors. The authors also examine the socio-political forces and the ideological elements which result in the neglect of climatic and geographical factors. Introduction A number of studies on Kerala's agriculture have observed that "the state has not come under the influence of [the] Green Revolution".1 The Green Revolution is considered here as an approach to increase the productivity of crops like wheat and paddy through the use of High Yielding Varieties of seeds (HYVs), chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Though the scientists recommended such an approach in the state, based on their "research", it did not have a major impact in Kerala. This is shown by the stagnation of the total production and the (per hectare) productivity of the major food crop (rice) of the state during the last three decades.2 While the yield rate of paddy increased by 55 percent during the period 1955-1971, the increase between 1972 and 1986 was only 18 percent.3 It is the latter period that covers the Green Revolution phase, marked by considerable increases in the productivity of food crops in many regions of India. The researchers who have studied the agricultural development of Kerala have suggested different reasons for the insignificant increase in the productivity of rice during the Green Revolution period. These reasons can be grouped into three categories:4 1. 2. 3. "Modern technology is not reaching the farmers". The studies argue for increasing the effectiveness of the extension system. "The socio-economic conditions including the price levels of different commodities and the ownership pattern of land are not conducive to the adoption of modern technology". In this case appropriate Governmental policies and mechanisms for achieving the requisite economies of scale are advocated as possible solutions. "Suitable technology is not available". The studies suggest changes in the allocation of resources for research and in the structure of the research organisations as possible sections. All the studies are based on the assumption that the general framework (or paradigm) of the Green Revolution package designed to increase productivity should be useful in Kerala irrespective of its specific climatic and ecological characteristics. International literature on agricultural science of the last decade has given some indications of the climatic factors that influence the performance of the Green Revolution package in humid tropical regions. Parameters such as the seasonal availability of sunlight are now considered as limiting factors on the effectiveness of the Green Revolution package.5 The wide variations in the success rate of this technology between temperate and tropical countries, between dry tropical and humid tropical areas and between irrigated and monsoon-fed areas have been interpreted in terms of the influence of the environmental factors. One study conducted in Kerala using the regional data on the yield rate achieved in farmers' fields (over a short term) also gave some indications of climatic influences on the level of productivity.6 This study cited the environmental factors of monsoon periods as possible reasons for the seasonal and regional variations in the yield rate of paddy in Kerala. These observations encourage one to study the "real potential" of the Green Revolution paradigm in the humid tropical regions of Kerala. Moreover, we are interested in the following question: How far are the environmental factors and their influence reflected in the different levels of discourses or agricultural development in Kerala? We would also like to discuss the factors, operating in Kerala in particular, and in the developing societies in general, that influence the selection and the pursuit of a particular technological paradigm. Evaluation of Agricultural Research Conducted in Kerala In order to see the real potential of the Green Revolution, we evaluate the agricultural research conducted in Kerala. However, we are not concerned much with the individual experiments conducted by scientists. Each individual experiment (sometimes conducted repeatedly for three or more years) does give some information on the potential of a particular input or a group of inputs and the scientists have recorded this information. Our main concern is with the long-term trends in the impact of the components of the Green Revolution paradigm in Kerala as shown by a number of experiments conducted over a sufficiently long period of time. This gives an overall picture of the level of changes in productivity that the scientists were able to achieve during this time period. Thus we attempt a "meta-look"7 at the research to see the "actual potential" of agricultural science in increasing productivity in the specific ecological context of Kerala. In general, scientists and planners have neglected to develop this "overall picture" or "meta-look" of scientific practice and one part of this paper is directed to that end. Since we use research data in our analysis, the yield rates here are obviously not influenced by the factors that determine regional level data collected from the farmers' fields. Thus the analysis of the research data yields a picture of the "real potential" of technology uninfluenced by the policy environment, the price structure and the inefficiency of the extension system. We consider eight research stations in Kerala that have made significant efforts in paddy research. Each of these stations is situated in a specific micro-climatic zone in Kerala. The stations, their locations, and the important climatic and geographical parameters of the locations that affect paddy production are listed in Table 1. The yield rates achieved in different experiments conducted in these research stations during the period 1979-1991 have been considered in this paper. This period is significant for two reasons. KAU was established in 1972 and one can consider its first few years as a stabilization period. Thus it can be safely assumed that the university started full-fledged research in all the Research stations only by 1979. Though the Green Revolution research had its peak a little earlier in the international and national research stations, the full transition of agricultural research to the Green Revolution phase occurred in Kerala only after the establishment of KAU. Thus the period 1979-91 is completely within the Green Revolution phase in Kerala. Our observations, based on the analysis of the experimental data during this period, are given in the following sections. Table 1: Research Stations and Micro-Climatic Zones Station Zone Area under paddy (%) 3.8 1.Ambalavayal High altitude North Kerala 2.Mancombu Kuttanad 10.0 Waterlogged area; summer cultivation 3.Mannuthy Trichur 9.4 Summer cultivation in some areas; wider valleys 4.Pilicode North Kerala 11.5 Narrow valleys; monsoon cultivation 5.Pattambi Central Kerala 35.0 ------ " ------- 6.Vellayani South Kerala 8.6 ------ " ------- 7.Kayamkulam Onattukara 4.1 Sandy soil; monsoon cultivation 8.Vytilla Cochin 1.5 Salinity affected back-water area Characteristics Low temperature regime; high natural moisture Highest Yield Rates Achieved in the Research Stations The highest yield rates of paddy achieved in the individual experiments conducted in each research station have been put together and ranked in descending order. We have the data of 658 experiments, conducted during the period 1979-91, for which yield values have been reported in the annual research reports of KAU. The median and the percentile values of the data set for different stations are listed in Table 2. The percentiles (corresponding to 25 per cent - 75 percent, 10 percent - 90 percent and 20 - 80 percent) are calculated to get the values within which highest yields rates in each research station varied, without considering the extreme higher and lower values. The range between these values gives a good estimate of the maximum possible yield rates that can be expected in the research station or in the corresponding microclimatic zone. Table 2: Highest Yield Rates in Different Stations (numbered in Table 1) Perce ntiles 1 0 2 0 3 0 7 5 8 0 9 0 Stations 1 6.4 2 6.1 3 6.2 4 4.3 5 5.2 6 5.0 7 5.1 8 4.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 3.8 4.7 4.3 4.3 3.5 5.8 5.6 5.6 3.8 4.5 4.3 4.3 3.5 3.8 3.8 4. 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 2.5 2.8 3.2 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.0 2.2 3.1 2.0 1.6 4.8 4.7 Median values 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 9.7 4.30 73.1 10.5 42.0 74.0 9.0 27.0 3.1 9.3 4.8 % of expts. with yields higher than 7 1.2 6 19.6 5 47.4 4 68.8 2.4 17.0 0.4 3.6 13.6 43.0 10.0 50.0 From Table 2, it can be seen that three research stations had significantly higher values compared to the others. These stations represent three special zones in Kerala, quite unlike the major part of the region sustaining paddy cultivation. One single measure that distinguishes these regions from others is that the highest yield rate frequently exceeds five tonnes per hectare. The highest values are recorded in Mancombu Station, situated in Kuttanad, in which yield rates values between 3.8 and 5.8 tonnes per hectare. Kuttanad is a water-logged backwater region where cultivation is carried on during the summer months (or after the recession of the monsoons). The summer cultivation of paddy in Kerala is mainly concentrated in these water-logged regions where monsoon cultivation is impossible due to flooding. Thus the main factor that distinguishes this region (which covers about ten percent of the area under paddy in Kerala) from other parts of Kerala and influences the yield rate of paddy is the cultivation during the summer when sunlight is abundant. The study conducted by Panikkar also shows the generally higher yield rates during the summer in Kerala. The studies at the national level which show higher yield rates during non-monsoon months also point to the superiority of summer cultivation.8 The research station at Mannuthy which caters to the requirements of the reclaimed lands (kole lands) of Trichur recorded values close to that of Kuttanad (3.8-5.6 tonnes per hectare). The kole lands of Trichur district also sustain summer cultivation. The Mannuthy Station represents the wide valleys of the Trichur district that are unlike the narrow valleys of the other parts of the mid-land. Similarly, the research station in Amabalavayal, situated in the high-altitude region of North Kerala has values ranging from 4 to 5.6 tonnes per hectare. Because of the lower temperature regime during the summer, this region also sustains paddy cultivation during that period. These three locations (Kuttanad, kole land and high land) are special zones, together covering about 22 percent of the paddy area of Kerala. All the other research stations, which represent 65 percent of the paddy-growing area of Kerala, record significantly lower values. The range of highest yield rates achieved in Pattambi Station, which can reasonably be considered representative of the whole of humid tropic Kerala and which has been doing pioneering research on paddy from 1921 onwards, is between 3 and 4.5 tonnes per hectare. All the other research stations record lower values than those of the Pattambi station. It can be seen that the highest yield rate achieved in these stations rarely reaches five tonnes per hectare, which is about the average for HYVs in other parts of India. The median values range between 2.5 to 3.8 tonnes per hectare for these stations. This is an important point considering that the range shows the highest possible yield rates achieved in the research stations and that the productivity of the farmers' fields generally tends to be significantly lower than the highest values achieved at the research situations. In all these locations, cultivation is done mainly during the monsoon months. Thus the locations, where summer cultivation is not possible, have yield values consistently lower than those in the locations sustaining summer cultivation. The timing of the cropping, and the climatic characteristics of the seasons are listed in Table 3, which reveals a significant difference in the amount of sunlight during the monsoon months compared to the summer months. Moreover since summer arrives in Kerala immediately after the recession of the North-East Monsoon, this region does not have a significant non-summer non-rainy period appropriate for irrigated cultivation of paddy. (This non-rainy, non-summer period is used for irrigated cultivation in other tropical states of India). If irrigation is resorted to during the summer when natural moisture is insufficient, it would require large quantities of water considering the high temperature and the evapo-transpiration rates. The cost of irrigation during the summer months tends to be very high and reliability low due to water losses into the warm soil and atmosphere. None of the irrigation projects functioning in Kerala can provide water for summer cultivation. Thus summer cultivation is possible only in areas where the natural moisture during the summer is adequate (e.g., water-logged ones). Thus the regions covering 65 percent of the gross area of paddy will continue to be monsoon-dependent and the shortage of sunlight will remain an important limiting factor. Table 3: Meteorological Parameters of Mid-land Kerala Mon Rainfall in cm. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Hun Jul. Aug Sep. Oct. Nov Dec. 0 0 0 9.6 7.4 69.8 80.0 45.4 45.0 23.5 27.3 0 No. of Rainy Days 0 0 0 4 10 19 24 27 12 19 12 0 Evapotrans. in cm. 16.09 16.30 18.85 17.82 16.09 10.17 10.91 11.93 11.80 9.00 12.96 15.53 Temp. Regime Sunshine Hours 35-19 36-19 40-20 40-23 37-23 34-23 32-22 32-22 32-23 32-23 33-22 33-17 261.5 275.4 268.0 240.3 246.7 64.9 66.8 80.8 229.5 128.2 202.2 258.5 The Real Potential of High Yielding Varieties Considering the relatively lower values of the highest yield rates achieved in most research stations in Kerala, it will be interesting to study the actual increase in the yield rate of paddy achieved by the HYVs in these stations. The evolution of HYVs has gone through different phases in the history of agricultural research. Traditionally farmers have been using certain local varieties which themselves may have undergone some natural screening process over a long period of time. At the beginning of this century when agricultural research started in a significant manner in India (including Kerala), the first attempt was to develop pure-line (PL) varieties of seeds out of the local ones. This essentially meant the screening of local varieties for some specific positive quality (like high yield or drought resistance) and the selection of those seeds that showed that particular quality for a sufficiently long period of time. In one way, PL selection was an acceleration of the process of natural screening that had been taking place earlier. The PL seeds could yield about 15 to 20 percent more than the traditional varieties.9 By the middle of this century the crossbreeding of local varieties with exotic varieties from other countries started. The crossing between the local indica varieties and the japonica ones (mainly from Japan) was not very successful. The second phase of crossbreeding between local varieties and the semi-dwarf indica varieties from Thailand began in the mid1960s at the initiative of the International Rice Research Institute. This phase produced most of the HYVs that are in use today. In fact it was through this cross-breeding that the scientists increased productivity significantly in other geographical areas, resulting in the Green Revolution. A parallel attempt was also made to develop induced mutant forms of the local varieties and a few of these mutants are also in use today. Several experiments conducted by the research stations in Kerala during the period of study provide comparative analyses of the PL and HYVs. Avoiding the extreme lower and upper values (through percentiles), the increase in yield of HYV over PL ranged between 10 to 40 percent (Median value is near 25). It is interesting to note that in this respect there was not much difference between the stations situated in the special zones and those in the monsoon-dependent regions. This shows that the PL (or traditional) varieties of the special zones have also been recording higher values than the corresponding varieties of the monsoon regions. Thus the percentage increase in the yield rate of HYVs (in research stations) does not normally exceed 50 percent. One should consider whether the increased yield rates achieved by the HYVs in Kerala are sufficient to overcome the relative advantages of the traditional varieties, such as their higher yield of rice straw. (It should be noted that the HYVs are in general short plants). One should also consider, the commercial importance of straw and the greater increase in the price of straw compared to that of rice. Impact of Chemical Fertilizers Chemical Fertilizers are an important part of the Green Revolution package. In fact the real potential of HYVs rest on their ability to respond positively to high doses of chemical fertilizers. However, the level of response depends on the environmental factors. Thus we would like to examine the response of the HYVs to different fertilizers in the climatic conditions of Kerala. The conclusions of the studies on the impact of Phosphorous (P) and Potassium (K) (reported in the Annual Reports between 1979 and 1991) are listed in Tables 4 and 5 respectively. The majority of the studies on P reported insignificant increases. However, a few reported that P was needed once in two or three cropping seasons. But even these studies could not find any significant yield increases from regular applications of P, which means that only small doses of P were required to maintain the sustainability of the soil. In the case of K, however, nearly all the studies report insignificant effects (Table 5). Table 4: Impact of P Station Mancombu Vellayani Pattambi Pattambi Mancombu Vytilla Vellayani Pattambi Pattambi Pattambi Pattambi Pattambi Pattambi Pattambi Challakkudy Pattambi Challakkudy Pattambi Pattambi Kayamkulam Pattambi Pattambi Mancombu Year of Expt. 1981-82 1985-86 1983-84 1983-84 1984-85 1982-83 1984-85 1984-85 1986-87 1981-82 1985-86 1979-80 1985-86 1979-80 1985-86 1981-82 1979-80 1981-82 1983-84 1982-83 1984-85 1984-85 1988-89 Seaso ns Kharif Rabi 2 3 Rabi Rabi Kharif 5 3 2 Kharif Rabi Signific ance No No No Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No No No No No Yes No Ref. 43* 64 71 71 3 73 66 62 54 43 67 45 64 54 43 44 57 43 61 46 67 67 37 Table 5: Impact of K Station Pattambi Challakkudy Pattambi Pattambi Mancombu Pattambi Mancombu Pattambi Kayamkulam Challakkudy Pattambi Pattambi Pattambi Mancombu Kayamkulam Mancombu Mancombu Pattambi Mannuthy Year of Expt. 1986-87 1979-80 1983-84 1990-91 1988-89 1983-84 1988-89 1983-84 1981-82 1985-86 1986-87 1979-80 1981-82 1989-90 1985-86 1990-91 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 Seas ons 2 2 2 6 1 2 2 4 2 Signific ance No Yes No No No No Yes No No No No No No No No Yes No No No Ref. 67* 57 71 3 35 62 31 61 46 66 54 45 43 31 66 2 67 68 27 * Relevant page number of the Annual Report of KAU. In the case of Nitrogen (N), experiments showed clearly that this fertilizer increased the yield rate between 23 and 41 percent in the research stations. Further the maximum yield rates were obtained in these stations when the quantity of N was around 60 kg/ha. Increasing the quantity of N beyond that level did not result in an increase in yield rate in the mid-land stations. Comparing these situation with the typical behaviour of HYVs under different doses of N in a research station outside Kerala showed that the yield increase through the addition of N reached the maximum level at much lower doses in Kerala. In fact there was no positive response to N beyond 60-70 kg/ha, whereas in other states the corresponding figure was much higher. When we consider the fact that the real potential of HYVs ties in the increased consumption of N and the corresponding increase in yield, the central factor that limits the productivity of HYVs in Kerala is this lack of positive response to higher doses of N. The studies comparing the use of organic manure and chemical fertilizers reported the consistent superiority of the former. The result of long-term experiments conducted by KAU for evaluating the effect of organic and inorganic manure are summarized in Table 6. Table 6: Effect of Organic and Inorganic Manure Ranking Source in the Order of Yield Rates Source P Q R S T U V W Year and season* of Experiment 79A 79B 80A 80B 81A 2 1 1 1 1 1 8 5 8 2 4 2 2 3 3 7 7 8 7 5 3 3 3 2 6 8 6 7 5 7 5 4 4 4 4 6 5 6 6 8 Sources and Doses: P: Cattle Manure (CM) 18,000 kg/ha; Q: Green Leaves (GL) 18,000 kg/ha R: CM = GL 9000 kg/ha; S: N Fertilizer 90 kg/ha T: CM 9000 kg/ha + N 45 kg/ha + P 45 kg/ha + K 45 kg/ha U: GL 9000 kg/ha + N 45 kg/ha + P 45 kg/ha + k 45 kg/ha V: CM + GL 4500 kg/ha + NPK (45+45+45+45 kg/ha) *A First season B: Second Season 81B 1 5 2 8 4 7 3 6 83A 1 5 3 6 2 8 4 7 83B 1 7 2 8 3 5 4 4 84A 1 7 3 8 2 6 4 5 85A 1 5 2 8 3 6 4 7 85B 3 5 2 8 1 7 4 4 86A 1 5 3 7 2 8 4 4 86B 2 5 4 8 1 6 3 7 Two reasonable observations follow from Table 6. First, organic manure is as effective as, if not more effective than, chemical fertilizers in Kerala. Second, chemical fertilizers alone are consistently inferior to organic manure alone or to the combinations of organic manure and chemicals. Thus organic manure remains important in Kerala even in terms of increasing yield rate. Organic manure is nowadays considered unavoidable for maintaining the health of the soil, but in Kerala it is apparently valuable in increasing the yield rate. Considering that organic manure contain small doses of phosphorous (and potassium) needed to keep the stability of the yield rate and that the response to N in Kerala does not increase beyond a medium level, addition of organic manure alone can be considered superior to the addition of chemicals alone. Even in the mid-1940s, when the transition to chemical fertilizers took place, there was evidence of the nonsuperiority of chemicals in terms of yield rate.10 The easy availability of chemical fertilizers at subsidized rates and the scarcity of organic manure in the commercialized areas encouraged the transition to chemicals. Most of the experiments conducted during this period of transition comparing organic and chemical fertilizers proved that chemicals were at best equivalent, if not inferior, to organic materials. We now see that the superiority and the need for organic manure continued even after the introduction of HYVs in the 1980s. Chemical Pesticides The other component of the Green Revolution package is the use of chemical pesticides for the control of pests. Controlling pests is definitely needed to reduce crop losses. The humid tropical climate in general promotes the growth of a number of pests and organisms that inflict diseases on the crops. One can see seasonal changes in the influence of pests in Kerala, monsoon periods being generally favourable for the growth of pests. This factor further limits production in mid-land Kerala where the cultivation takes place mainly during the monsoon. Pest-control research went through different phases in Kerala. Before the mid-1940s, the major thrust of the pest research was on the study of the environmental conditions of the pest infestation and on the design of a combination of natural (plant-based) and manual methods of control. The transition to chemical pesticides started in the mid-1940s. The easy availability of chemicals at subsidized rates (both for research and for distribution among farmers) encouraged this transition. During the transition period, only a few experiments were conducted comparing the previously used package and the newly introduced chemicals. None of these experiments proved the superiority of chemicals.11 However, the availability of chemicals and changes in pest control research all over India at that time encouraged a quick transition to chemical pesticides in Kerala. After this transition, pest research became limited to testing specific chemicals for a particular pest/disease (in addition to the study of the pest/disease). Thus we cannot compare the effect of chemical fertilizers vis-à-vis other methods during the Green Revolution period. However, one specific case for which data is available comparing the performance of the chemical and the non-chemical methods is that of weed control. The traditional practice was to hand-weed once or twice depending on need. However, during the Green Revolution period, the use of chemicals was advocated as the means of controlling weeds. Scientists conducted several experiments to compare the efficiency of different chemicals (weedicides) against land-weeding. Nearly one-third of the experiments showed that hand-weeding was superior, another one-third showed that hand-weeding was on par with chemicals and the other third showed the superiority of one chemical or other. Thus the use of chemicals for weed control did not clearly show superior results. The overall conclusion is that the effect of HYVs, chemical fertilizers and pesticides was not significant compared to the previously used inputs such as pure-line or traditional varieties, organic manure and the natural and manual methods of pest control. Since their effect was not significant, the transition to the Green Revolution paradigm by the farmers critically depended on several other factors. To begin with, the farmers' expenditure went up. Based on farmers' data, one study observed that cultivation using the new package increased costs by 30 percent while the output increased by 40 percent. Considering the fact that the maximum increase in yield rate through the addition on N was only about 40 percent, the farmers had a tendency to use a smaller quantity than the recommended dose, since the gap between yield rates corresponding to the farmer's practice and the recommended one was even lower than 40 percent. The HYVs are, in general, short plants and produce smaller quantities of rice straw. The sharp increase in the number if cross-bred cattle in Kerala, increased the demand for, and the cost of, rice straw. This was another factor that dampened the attraction of the HYVs. Yet another damper was the fact that most of the HYVs were white kernel varieties while people in Kerala generally prefer the red varieties. We conclude that the Green Revolution paradigm can increase the productivity of paddy in Kerala only marginally due to environmental factors. As a result, other factors like the demand for rice straw, and wage and price structure became more influential in the decision to adopt the technology or not. If the level of increase in yield rate is not sufficient to induce the factors to change over to new inputs such as HYVs, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, there are other factors that may lead to the use of these inputs. The non-availability of traditional inputs such as organic manure and local seeds could make the farmers use new inputs even without a substantial change in the level of productivity. Panikkar characterizes this phenomenon as "the paradox of modernization without commensurate improvement in net returns".12 Nature's Influence in the Discourse of Agricultural Development of Kerala The issue of the influence of environmental factors on technology is reflected in different ways in the discourses of the agricultural scientists, social scientists and planners, and of the public including farmers and politicians in Kerala. As is evident from the data given in this paper, the issue appears in an implicit manner in many individual experiments conducted by the agricultural scientists. However, the agricultural scientists interpret these experiments in a limited context and restrict their conclusions to statements such as: the "effect of phosphorous and potash is insignificant", "organic manure is as good as chemicals", "runoff might be the reason for the lesser impact of N fertilizers during monsoon crops", and so on. As suggested earlier, apart from analyzing these individual experiments, scientists have not tried to take a meta-view of the research results over a long period of time. Thus they have looked for the causes of the stagnation in productivity in the farmer's field, either in the factors that restrict the adoption of the technology developed by them, or in the parameters of the research organization such as limited resources for conducting research appropriate to different climatic zones, the number and the motivating factors of the research personnel, and the like. The question of the appropriateness of the technological paradigm (or of individual technologies) or the consideration of climatic and nature as limiting factors for a particular form of technology does not arise in their discourse. The organizational and disciplinary frameworks of these scientists make them believe in the universal validity of a particular technological paradigm. This leads them to nurture the hope that this paradigm will be eventually successful in this region also. The political economy of agricultural research (operating at the national and international levels) which determines funding patterns, the nature of training, the factors of recognition and motivation also encourage these scientists to overlook the inadequacies of the chosen paradigm.13 The fact that the organization of the agricultural research in Kerala, too, has been built on a pattern suitable for the Green Revolution paradigm (with three distinct and unconnected divisions, namely, breeding, fertilizer research and pesticide research for each crop), also determines the functioning of the scientists.14 The organizational factors do not encourage thinking on lines which may subvert the pattern on which the very organization is based. Social scientists (including agricultural economists) and development planners who have tried to study the failure of the Green Revolution paradigm, initially considered socio-economic factors and government policies as possible determinants. Thus their discourse centered around issues of the price of commodities and price policies, wages, land-holding patterns and property rights, effectiveness of the technology extension system. However, the last decade has witnessed the emergence of economic studies questioning the appropriateness of the technology suggested by the scientists.15 These studies have made observations on the individual technologies or on the absence of suitable ones. They argue for the intensification of research (through measures that would increase its effectiveness) so as to derive suitable technologies as quickly as possible. They also seem to share the hope of the eventual success of the technological paradigm. The discourse on this issue among the public (including farmers) is manifested in two ways. At one level, the not-so-enthusiastic adoption of Green Revolution technology by the farmers themselves is a manifestation of their understanding of the marginal significance of the technological paradigm. This can be observed in the less extensive use of HYVs, use of chemicals at much below the recommended levels, and the continuation of a multi-cropping system in a significant number of garden lands against the advice of the scientists. However, in discussion on policy matters among politicians, farmers' groups and among the public at large, the mood is one of "eventual hope" for this technology. The "policy environment", "inadequate extension", and the organizational failure of the agricultural research have been cited as the reasons for the non-adoption and non-availability of technology. Organizational failure is being seen more in terms of the inefficiency of the scientists and of the research management. Thus the solutions being proposed at the political level include an increase in the number of extension officials, special subsidies for inputs, restrictions on changes in land use. This attitude has led policy makers to place a heavy stress on paddy in the whole research effort, with the objective of achieving self-sufficiency. The fact this policy emphasis has continued during the last 40 years or so despite the decline of paddy in the agriculture of Kerala and the steady increase in the gap between the requirement and the availability of paddy in the state shows the strength of their hope. Reports on the stagnation of production and the productivity of paddy and the apparent failure of technology to increase productivity considerably, have not affected this policy orientation. The public perception of science and technology as universally valid solutions, which has been strengthened by the positivist attitudes of political ideologies from Nehruvian Socialism to different varieties of Marxism-Leninism prevalent in Kerala, leads to an uncritical belief in the capability of a particular form of technology. Thus positivism in science which can be crudely defined as the "unscientific belief in science"16 transforms itself into an uncritical hope on a particular technology. The political economy of agricultural research which considers research as a public good also seems to have resulted in the pursuit of a technological paradigm of insignificant economic importance to the people and society. Since the scientists do not have to respond to the needs of the farmers directly, they can continue in their paradigm for a long time. The functioning of the research institutions in which the actual users of the research results have little say over the selection of research problems in a major reason for the selection of an inappropriate paradigm. Economic and Social Forces and the Selection of Technology Economists, who consider technological change an endogenous factor, argue that the choice of a technology out of given alternatives (offered by the level of knowledge at that point of time) is determined by the internal socio-economic factors of a society. Drawing from the production function approach to technology, these studies postulate that technological choice, out of given alternatives, is oriented to saving that factor of production becoming scarcer of costlier.17 Thus technological change in agriculture in United States was directed more towards saving labour (through mechanization) while Japan moved towards saving land (through crop-intensification). Recently there have been attempts to incorporate other endogenous factors such as property rights in explaining the direction of technological change.18 This was used to explain the perceived bias of the Green Revolution technology towards large farmers. The influence of socio-political forces operating within a region on the formulation of the research agenda has also be studied.19 As noted in the case of Latin American countries like Columbia and Argentina, powerful social groups as well as national interests can have a decisive influence on research agenda. While using these frameworks to interpret the experience of Kerala, one can make two possible observations. The first is that state-level research in Kerala is an integral part of Indian research. Research agenda at the national level are influenced by the requirements of the regions where the Green Revolution has tended to be successful (at least on a short-term basis) in increasing productivity. Second, the stress on the Green Revolution paradigm in Kerala can also be seen as a reflection of internal social priorities. As noted earlier, Kerala has a history of stressing food crop production even in the face of the declining cultivation of food-crops.20 This shows the impact of political groups and interests which give more importance to the food needs of the majority than to the profit interests of the farmers. The role of agricultural workers in the left movements, who are mostly involved in paddy cultivation has also been significant in orienting the direction of agricultural development in Kerala. The fear of dependence on other states for food (and the restrictions on commodity movement between states) has encouraged policy makers to aim at achieving self-sufficiency in food-production. Thus, one way of explaining the pursuit of the paradigm is to locate those internal policy pressures that influence research agenda. The social and political interest in increasing paddy production coupled with the prevalent hope of the universal capabilities of the Green Revolution paradigm, supplemented by a research organization well connected to national and international organizations with interests in transferring the paradigm resulted in the situation experienced in Kerala. If the paradigm has proved to be inappropriate, and if the people have not adopted it, then what factors prevent the internal social and economic forces from exerting pressure to abandon the paradigm at the research level? One finds economic reasons for the reluctance of the people to demand an appropriate paradigm. This is rooted in the marginality of paddy production in the agriculture of Kerala and the marginal contribution of paddy cultivation to the income of people living in the humid tropical belt.21 The relative insignificance of paddy production is manifested in the reluctance to demand the abandonment of a paradigm which contributes only marginally. The case study of Kerala reported in this paper also points to the need to consider the functioning of international agricultural research as an external factor that influences the paradigm selection and the direction of technological innovation in many developing countries. This is especially important in the modern period when there have been intensive efforts to transfer agricultural technology to developing societies. We would also like to note briefly the debate of the pro-technology and anti-technology arguments with regard to the Green Revolution. The social and environmental impacts of the Green Revolution have attracted the attention of many scholars and some have taken them to be the inherent problems of the Green Revolution technology and science itself.22 A number of agricultural scientists and others who consider the contribution of Green Revolution in making food abundant in many developing countries question the validity of these techno-critical studies.23 What we have shown in Kerala is a specific case in which the scientists pursued a particular technological paradigm which failed to generate even shot-term benefits. The scientists neglected the specific eco-climatic characters and the feedback information generated in their own research effort. What can be deduced from this experience is the need to see technological changes as an integral part of the internal evolution of the society. It also highlights the problems of "imposing" a technological paradigm from elsewhere. Internal evolution would always require and use external information and opportunities but the institutional and belief structure should be conducive enough to select the useful and discard the inappropriate ones. Science and technology, in this case, is an ideological framework which obstructs this screening process. Notes 1 This observation was firs made by C.T. Kurien, "Agricultural Change - A Comparison of Tamilnadu and Kerala", in P.P. Pillai (ed.), Agricultural Development in Kerala (New Delhi: Agricole Publishing Company, 1982), p.13. 2 The following studies on Kerala's agriculture have pointed to this situation: Pillai, op.cit., K.P.Kannan and K.Pushpangadan, "Dissecting Agricultural Stagnation in Kerala", Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.XXV, Nos. 35-36 (1991), pp.1991-2004; K.V.Nambiar et.al., "Rice Production in Kerala: Problems and Prospects". Proc. Of the seminar on Stagnation of Rice Production in Kerala, Kerala Agricultural University, Vellayani. 3 Nambiar, op.cit., p.3. 4 Each researcher may have suggested reasons coming under different categories here. We have used the categorization employed by J. Werner, 1993, Participatory Development of Agricultural Innovations (Eschborn: GTZ, 1993), p.13. 5 For example see, C. Gangadharan, “Breeding,” in P. L. Jaiswal (ed.) , Rice Research in India (New Delhi: Indian Council of Agricultural Research, 1985), p80. 6 P.G. K Panikkar, “Environmental factors in production and productivity of rice in Kerala’, Working Paper No. 15, (Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, 1973) 7 This “meta-look” is close to the “meta-modeling” concept suggested by the systems scientist John P van Gigch, “Meta-modeling: The Epistemology of System Science,” Systems Practice, Vol. 6, No. 3 (1993), pp. 251-258 8 See the seasonal analysis of yield data of rice from different states in India presented in S.P Sreenivasan’s chapter in Jaiswal op.cit. 9 We have noted the changes in productivity achieved by the pure-line varieties (V. Santhakumar and R. Rajagopalan, “Western Technology and Eastern Society: Early Agricultural Science in Humid- Tropic State of South India”, mimeo, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, 1994). 10 Ibid. 11 Ibid. 12 P. G. K. Panikkar, “High-Yielding Varieties of Rice – A Study of Selected Areas in Kerala”, Working Paper No. 140 (Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, 1983). 13 For a discussion of the international research strategies and their impact on the, decisions of the developing countries , see R. S Anderson et.al., Rice Science and Development Politics (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1991) 14 The activities of KAU have also been given in their reports under these three categories. 15 For example, see Kannan and Pushpangadan, op. cit., p 31. 16 Stanley Arnovitz quotes Horkheimer and Adorno in defining positivism as the “alienation of human reason from itself. See Science as Power (Hampshire: Macmillan Press). p.7. 17 Y. Hayami and V. W. Ruttan, Agricultural Development: An International Perspective (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University, 1985). 18 Alain de Janvry et. al., “Agrarian Structure, Technological Innovations and the State”, in Pranab Bardhan (ed.)., The Economic Theory of Agricultural Institutions (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1989). 19 M. Pineiro and E. Trigo (eds.) Technical Change and Social Conflict in Agriculture: Latin American Perspectives (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1983). 20 A detailed treatment of this issue is given in V. Santhakumar et. al., “Planning Kerala’s Irrigation Projects: Technological Prejudice and Politics of Hope,” Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XXX, No. 12 (1995), pp A30-A38. 21 Paddy cultivation in Kerala as a whole is limited to 25 percent of its total crop area. When we consider the mid-land districts alone, that figure comes down to 10 to 14 percent. In these districts, all the families cultivating paddy grow other crops and/or are involved in other income generating activities. 22 For example, see Vandana Shiva, Staying Alive Women, Ecology and Survival in India (London: Zed Books 1988) 23 For example, see Meera Nanda, “Is Modern Science a Western, Patriarchal Myth? A Critique of the Populist Oxthodoxy,” South Asia Bulletin, Vol. XI, Nos. 1 & 2 (1991), pp. 32-61.
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