ONLY THE RULE OF LAW CAN PREVENT A USCHINA CONFLICT
By Professor Jean-Pierre Lehmann and Arthur Appleton - January 2011
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ONLY THE RULE OF LAW CAN PREVENT A US-CHINA CONFLICT
When President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jin-tao meet in Washington, DC on January
19th, they should recognize that generally when a new big power rises, war ensues.
The 20th century narrates a bloody tale of the rise and fall of empires. Luckily, 20th century-type wars
are unlikely to occur in the 21st. But there are many other types of conflicts that could be just as
devastating.
There was a time when it was assumed that things could be different. In 2005, the leading Chinese
intellectual and reformer, ZHENG Bijian, coined the term “China’s peaceful rise.” There was an
underlying assumption among international policy makers and thought leaders that globalization had
transformed the paradigm: geopolitics is zero-sum, the new age of global economic interdependence is
win-win. Unfortunately, that has never been true.
As the financial crisis of 2008-09 has shaken the confident foundations of a new global economic order
and caused considerable havoc, simultaneously relations between China and the US have deteriorated.
On virtually any issue one can think of – trade, finance, investment, intellectual property rights, security,
morality, human rights, climate change – we are seeing what has been termed “escalating reciprocal
demonization.” This combination of economic havoc – especially stubbornly high unemployment – and
geopolitical tensions between the rising and the established powers is cause for alarm.
There are mechanisms in place for confidence building – notably the US-China Strategic and Economic
Dialogue. While, however, there can be no doubt that Churchill’s dictum that “jaw-jaw is better than warwar”, there was a lot of jaw-jaw in the past that did not prevent war-war from breaking out.
While war-like conflict between the US and China (in whatever form) is not inevitable, it is better to
assume that it may well be possible, rather than bask in the complacent illusion that it is impossible.
This perspective also focuses the mind on how to prevent the conflict. We take the view that the most
secure means to prevent US-China conflict, is to strengthen and upgrade the international rule of law
and multilateral institutions. International criminal tribunals, international environmental organizations,
the World Trade Organization, and the UN’s human rights and labor organizations are all regimes that
need reinforcement.
That, however, is not the current situation: along with the deteriorating global economy and the
escalating Sino-American tension, the international rule of law and the multilateral institutions have
either been outright flouted – as was the case when America invaded Iraq – or have been wallowing in
paralysis – as is the case with the WTO Doha Round and with the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change. The G20 summits have somewhat attenuated matters, though they still remain mainly
talking shops that do not have powers of enforcement.
The weakness of the international institutions and international law necessarily results in facilitating a
growing number of areas that remain outside the boundaries of law. These in turn are leading to further
deterioration in US-China relations and are further escalating reciprocal demonization.
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ONLY THE RULE OF LAW CAN PREVENT A US-CHINA CONFLICT
As Chinese President Hu is due to visit Washington, the US Secretary of Defense is due to
visit Beijing amid reports that China is constructing its first aircraft carrier and a stealth fighter prototype.
There are worrying signs of the outbreak of an arms race in the Pacific.
Likewise, China’s recent move to cut export quotas on vital rare earth minerals is also a cause for
concern and may lead the United States to launch its second trade dispute against Chinese export
restrictions.
We are not so naïve to believe that strengthening the international rule of law and multilateral
institutions is in any way a guarantee against conflict. Yet, we do see that this is where lie the greatest
chances for long-term peaceful relations between the US and China. These institutions that, in spite of
their many imperfections, have served the world well in the last 60 years were set up after World War II.
It seems definitely worthwhile to try strengthening and enhancing them and the rule of law before the
breakout of another global cataclysm. There are also no doubt reforms and adjustments that need to be
made. The revision of IMF quotas is a small yet positive step in the right direction. More reform and
more adjustments are necessary.
Since the most probable and imminent escalation of conflict between the US and China is in trade and
the possible outbreak of protectionism, we are convinced that the first major step towards strengthening
the global legal and institutional framework would be the successful conclusion of the WTO Doha
Round. If Presidents Obama and Hu could commit to concluding, along with the other members of the
G20, the Doha Round at the latest by November 2011 (when the Round will reach its tenth
anniversary), the world will be a more lawful hence safer place and the prospect of a US-China conflict
will have diminished.
By Jean-Pierre Lehmann and Arthur Appleton
Jean-Pierre Lehmann is Professor of International Political Economy at IMD and the Founding Director
of The Evian Group @ IMD. He is the co-editor of Peace and Prosperity Through World
Trade, Cambridge University Press, 2010. Arthur Appleton is a Partner in the international law
firm, Appleton Luff.
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ONLY THE RULE OF LAW CAN PREVENT A US-CHINA CONFLICT
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