NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 4
Taupo District, June 2014
Age and Ethnic Structure
With around 17 per cent aged 65+ years in 2013, the
population of the Taupo District is older than the national
average of 14.2 per cent, although is around the middle of
the distribution in terms of the nation’s TAs. However age
structures also differ markedly by ethnic group. Figure 7
compares the age structures of the Taupo District’s
European and Maori populations (see Notes), which
account for just on 66 and 24 per cent of the total
(compared with 65 and 13 per cent nationally). In 2013
the median age for the district’s Maori population was 26
years (that is, one-half of the Maori population was aged
less than 26 years), compared with 43 years for European.
The graphs also show how each population has aged
structurally since 2001 (unshaded bars), due to the
declining birth rates, increasing longevity, and net
migration loss at the key reproductive ages already
discussed. Particularly notable is the migration-driven
deficit at 20-34 years of age for the district’s Europeanorigin population. The Taupo District is also somewhat
less multi-ethnic than is the case nationally, with just 2.2
per cent Pacific Island, 2.9 per cent Asian, 0.4 per cent
Middle Eastern/Latin American/African, and 4.7 per cent
‘not identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per
cent respectively at national level.
Figure 7: Age structure: Taupo District, European and Māori 2001 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars)
European
7.0
5.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
Percentage at each age group
5.0
7.0
Females
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
Age Group (years)
Mäori
Females
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
Age Group (years)
Taupo District has
an older than average age structure,
but, as elsewhere,
the population of
European origin is
relatively old, and
that of Māori origin,
extremely young.
TAUPO DISTRICT- KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Natalie Jackson
Inside this issue:
Taupo District: Population Size and Growth
The population of the Taupo District has grown slowly but steadily over the past twentyseven years, from 29,027 in 1986 to 34,400 in 2013 (+18.5 per cent) (Figure 1). The
population is projected to continue to grow slowly over the next two decades with the
NIDEA medium case projections indicating a population of around 37,012 by 2033 (+8.4
per cent), but peaking around 2035 and declining to 31,274 by 2063. The high case
projections would see growth sustained for longer, numbers peaking around 2046, while
the low projections see peak population occur around 2021. These trends are the outcome
of population ageing.
ERP
5.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
Percentage at each age group
5.0
7.0
NIDEA Low
NIDEA Medium
40,000
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Area of Usual Residence (2001, 2006 and 2013) and Ethnic Group (Total Responses) by Age (Five Year Groups) and Sex For the census
usually resident population count
Notes: *Statistics New Zealand's Multiple Count method of enumeration means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group
Migration by Age
2
Population Ageing
3
Age and Ethnic
Structure
4
41,168
31,274
Summary
4
NIDEA High
45,000
2
Taupo’s Movers and 3
Stayers
Figure 1: Population of Taupo District 1986-2011 and projected to 2063
7.0
Components of
Change by
Component Flow
34,400
35,000
References: Jackson, N.O. and Pawar , S. (2013a). A Demographic Accounting Model for New Zealand. Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi:
Regional Impacts of Demographic and Economic Change – 2013-2014. MBIE-funded project . National Institute of Demographic and
Economic Analysis, University of Waikato, Hamilton.
10,000
5,000
0
Source: 1986-2013 Statistics NZ Estimated Resident Population (ERP); 2013-2063 NIDEA
National Institute of
Demographic and
Economic Analysis
(NIDEA)
Components of Change
The major component of Figure 2: Components of change: Taupo District
the
Taupo
District’s
Natural Increase
Estimated Net Migration
Net Change
growth has consistently
500
been natural increase (the
400
300
difference between births
200
and deaths), augmented
100
by occasional bursts of
-100
net
migration
gain
-200
(Figure 2). Significant net
-300
migration loss occurred
-400
March Years
June Years
between 1998 and 2001
-500
and again between 2004
and 2008, with that loss
Taupo District
completely
offsetting Source: Compiled from Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare
natural increase between
2007 and 2008. Natural increase is now reducing as the population ages and larger
proportions are reaching the ages at which they no longer have children.
Faculty of Arts & Social
Sciences,
University of Waikato
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton 3240,
New Zealand
Phone:
07 838 4040
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1998-99
1999-2000
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
Like many of its more rural counterparts, the Taupo
District experiences an ongoing problem in terms of
net migration loss at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age.
Net migration gains at several older ages partially
offsets that loss, but is not a perfect substitute
because the sustained loss at young adult ages
compounds over time to reduce the primary
reproductive age group (20-39 years), and thus the
The Taupo District has double the national average
of Maori, and smaller proportions of those of Pacific
Island, Asian, or Latin American/African origin. The
relative youth of the District’s Maori population has
the potential to benefit from a forthcoming
economic advantage, as the older European
population disproportionately enters retirement,
and the number of labour force entrants per ‘exit’
declines.
15,000
1992
Mover and Stayer data from the 2013 Census
indicate that around 61 per cent of those
enumerated as living in Taupo on Census night 2013
had been living there in 2008, very similar to the
proportion at each of the previous three Censuses.
Auckland typically accounts for Taupo’s largest gains
and losses of internal migrants, while Rotorua,
Hamilton, Tauranga and South Waikato feature
prominently.
23,788
20,000
1992-93
The major cause of the district’s growth has long
been natural increase, with net migration loss a
consistent feature. As elsewhere, however, growth at
65+ years will increasingly drive population growth
as the baby boomer cohorts (born 1946-65) move
into the 65+ age groups and numbers rise due to
increasing longevity. Eventually, the same cohorts
will drive the end of natural growth, as deaths will
increase and will not be replaced by births. This shift
will result in population decline, most likely
beginning between 2035 and 2046.
25,000
Number
numbers of children. At the same time the District
has recently experienced gains at 25-39 years, and
also at 60+ years. The trends have resulted in the
Taupo District’s population having an older than
average age structure, but at TA level it still falls in
the middle of the national distribution, and is only
the fourth-oldest of the Waikato Region’s ten TAs.
Number
The population of the Taupo District has grown
slowly but steadily over the past 27 years, from
29,027 in 1986 to 34,400 in 2013 (+18.5 per cent)
Under the medium case assumptions, the population
is projected to grow slowly to approximately 37,012
by 2033 (+8.4 per cent), all of the growth occurring
at 65+ years, with decline at all ages below 54 years.
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
Summary
30,000
E-mail:
[email protected]
ISSN 2382-039X
(Print)
ISSN 2382-0403
(Online)
NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 4
Taupo District, June 2014
Page 2
Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’
(Jackson & Pawar 2013a), the broad components of the
Taupo District’s population change can be broken down
into their underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between
2008 and 2013, the Taupo District grew by approximately
1,000 persons. Natural increase (births minus deaths)
accounted for 1,044 persons, slightly reduced by an
estimated net migration loss of 44 persons. The
natural increase component was in turn comprised of
2,396 births partially offset by 1,352 deaths. From
estimated net migration we then account for ‘known’ net
migration (-756), comprised of net internal migration (30) and net international permanent/long term (PLT)
migration (-726). This leaves an unaccounted
for component of migration, which we call the ‘residual’
component (+712 people enumerated as moving to the
Region between 2008 and 2013, but their 2008 origin is
unknown). The model further disaggregates each known
net migration component into its respective inflows and
outflows (5,118 internal immigrants and 5,148 internal
emigrants; 1,922 PLT international immigrants and 2,648
PLT international emigrants). The overall picture is one of
considerable ‘churn’, generated by large numbers of
leavers and arrivals relative to the net outcome. Data for
the 1996-2001 and 2001-2006 periods are available from
NIDEA (see also Jackson with Pawar 92013b).
NB. The 2008-2013 period reflects the impact of the
delayed census.
Between 2008 and 2013,
the Taupo District grew by
around 1,000 people but
experienced considerably
greater population ‘churn’,
generated by relatively
large numbers of leavers
and arrivals.
Figure 3: Components flows - Taupo District 2008-2013
NET CHANGE in Estimated Population
33,400
2,396
+239.6%
ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION
+
(Births - Deaths)
Births
+104.4%
-
-44
Deaths
1,352
End
+3.0%
NATURAL INCREASE
+1,044
34,400
(ERP2008 - ERP2013)
+1,000
N I D E A D e m o gTr A
a pUhPiOc SDnI Sa T
pR
s hI C
oT
t -N K
oE
. Y
4
Tau
t , I JCu T
n eR E2N0 D
14
D pEoM D
O iGsRt rAiPc H
S
Taupo’s Movers and Stayers
Components of Change by Component Flow
Start
Page 3
-4.4%
NET KNOWN MIGRATION
Residual Component of Migration
(Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration)
Estimated Net Migration - Net Known Migration)
-135.2%
-756
-75.6%
Net Internal Migration
-30
-3.0%
+
+712
+71.2%
Net PLT Migration
-726
-72.6%
Data from the 2013 Census
indicate that almost 61 per
cent of those enumerated as
living in the Taupo District
on Census night 2013 (March
5th) had been living there in
2008. At the 2013 Census,
those who had not been born
in 2008 accounted for the
single largest component of
arrivals (7.2 per cent),
followed by those ‘not
elsewhere included’ (5.8 per
cent), ‘those living elsewhere
in NZ but not further defined’
(5.4 per cent), and those who
were ‘overseas in 2008’ (5.3
per cent). The next largest
contingent of arrivals were
internal
migrants
from
Auckland (3.0 per cent),
followed by Rotorua District
(1.3 per cent), Hamilton City
(0.8 per cent) and Tauranga
City (0.7 per cent).
Leavers: The
TAs
of Figure 5: Taupo’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013
destination for those who
had been living in the Taupo
District in 2008 but were
living elsewhere at the 2013
Census are similar to those
for arrivals, the single-largest
proportion of leavers having
gone to Auckland (3.4 per
cent), followed by Hamilton
City (1.8 per cent), Tauranga
City (1.5 per cent) and
Rotorua (1.3 per cent).
The patterns have been
remarkably consistent over
time, with the proportion
remaining in the district
between Censuses ranging
from 58 per cent (19962001) to 61 per cent (20082013),
and
Auckland,
Rotorua,
Hamilton
and
Tauranga consistently in the
top 4-8 TAs of both origin
and destination. Another TA
The past four censuses indicate
to feature consistently as
that between 58 and 61 per cent
both
an
origin
and
of people enumerated as living
destination for Taupo’s
in the Taupo District at each
movers is the South Waikato
census had been living in the
District.
District five years previously.
Internal In-migrants
+5,118
Internal Out-migrants
-
+511.8%
-5,148
PLT Arrivals
-514.8%
+1,922
+192.2%
PLT Departures
-
-2,648
-264.8%
Population Ageing
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources
Migration by Age
Figure 4: Net migration age profile - Taupo District 1996-01, 2001-06, 2008-13
300
100
0
-100
1996-2001
-200
2001-2006
-300
2008-2013
-400
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
10-14
15-19
0-4
5-9
-500
Age Group
As elsewhere, declining birth rates, Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age group
increasing
longevity,
and—in
0-14 years
Taupo’s case—net migration loss at
140
15-24 years
young adult ages, are causing the
120
population to age structurally.
100
25-39 years
Between 2011 and 2031, numbers
80
40-54 years
for all age groups below 54 years are
60
40
projected to decline, and those at 65+
55-64 years
20
years to increase significantly (Figure
0
65-74 years
6). By 2031, 27.3 per cent of the
-20
population of the Taupo District is
75-84 years
-40
projected to be aged 65+ years, up
Taupo District
Waikato Region
New Zealand
85+ years
from 15.6 per cent in 2011. However
Taupo is only the fourth-oldest of Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
Waikato Region’s ten TAs. Figure 6 shows that the trends for Taupo District are not that different to those for either the
Waikato or total New Zealand, both of which are also projected to experience the vast majority of their growth to 2031
at 65+ years. The Taupo District can expect to have more elderly than children by 2021, around five years
earlier than for the Waikato Region and total New Zealand.
Percentage Change, 2011 - 2031
200
Number
Fig 4 shows that the Taupo District
experiences consistent net migration
loss at 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 years of
age. Between 2008 and 2013 net loss
also occurred of people aged in their ‘40s
and early ‘50s. However across both the
2001-2006 and 2008-2013 periods, the
district enjoyed small net gains at 0-4,
25-39 and 60+ years, indicating the net
arrival of young families and those of
retirement age. Underlying data from the
demographic accounting model shows
that all age groups saw both internal and
international
(PLT)
arrivals
and
departures,
with
international
immigrants increasingly prominent at
60-69 years of age.