Canada's balance of international payments, fourth quarter 2016 Released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time in The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Canada's current account deficit (on a seasonally adjusted basis) narrowed by $9.0 billion in the fourth quarter to $10.7 billion as the goods balance posted its first surplus in more than two years. In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), foreign investment in Canadian private corporate securities led the inflow of funds in the economy in the quarter. For the year 2016, the current account deficit edged up $0.1 billion to $67.7 billion. The deficit on goods expanded, mainly on lower exports of energy products. A lower deficit on services moderated the overall increase in the current account deficit in 2016. In the financial account, transactions in securities generated a record net inflow of funds of $147.5 billion in 2016. These inflows were partially offset by outflows in direct and other investment. Direct investment abroad exceeded direct investment in Canada by $43.3 billion in 2016. Since the return to a current account deficit in 2009, the funding of this deficit has mostly come from transactions in securities. Foreign investment in Canadian securities has steadily exceeded Canadian investment in foreign securities during this period. Chart 1 Net international transactions in securities and current account balance, annual billions of dollars 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net international transactions in securities Current account balance Note(s): Net international transactions in securities refers to the difference between foreign investment in Canadian securities and Canadian investment in foreign securities. Source(s): CANSIM tables 376-0101 and 376-0102. The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Current account Trade in goods balance moves to a surplus The balance on the international trade in goods posted a $0.8 billion surplus in the fourth quarter, following an $8.6 billion deficit the previous quarter. For the year as a whole, the goods deficit was up $2.9 billion to a record $25.9 billion. Chart 2 Current account balances billions of dollars 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 IV I 2011 II III 2012 Goods IV I II III 2013 IV I II III 2014 IV I II III 2015 IV I II III 2016 IV Other current account components Total Note(s): Data are seasonally adjusted. Source(s): CANSIM table 376-0105. On a geographical basis, the goods surplus with the United States, led by stronger exports of energy products, increased $3.7 billion to $12.0 billion in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the deficit with non-US countries narrowed by $5.7 billion to $11.2 billion, mainly on record exports. 2 Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Chart 3 Goods balances by geographic area billions of dollars 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 IV I 2011 II III 2012 IV I II III 2013 IV I II III 2014 United States IV I II III 2015 IV I II III 2016 IV All other countries All countries Note(s): Data are seasonally adjusted. Source(s): CANSIM table 376-0106. Exports of goods increase while imports decrease Total exports of goods rose $6.3 billion to $136.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Energy products, led by crude petroleum, were the major contributor with exports up $4.7 billion on higher prices and, to a lesser extent, higher volumes. Despite the gains in the fourth quarter, exports were down by $3.6 billion in 2016 as energy products continued to decline. Total imports of goods were down $3.1 billion to $135.8 billion. Industrial machinery, equipment and parts recorded the largest reduction, down $2.7 billion. This followed a high in the third quarter, with activity dominated by the import of a large module for the Hebron offshore oil project in Newfoundland and Labrador. For the year, imports edged down by $0.7 billion. Balance on trade in services unchanged The overall deficit on international trade in services remained at $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter. For the year 2016, the services deficit narrowed $2.4 billion to $22.1 billion on a lower travel deficit. Spending by foreign travellers in Canada increased by $2.9 billion in 2016. In the fourth quarter, the travel deficit was unchanged at $3.6 billion. Receipts and payments rose as both the number of international overnight travellers visiting Canada and the number of Canadians travelling abroad for one or more nights increased. Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X 3 The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 The deficit on transport services was down $0.2 billion, mostly due to lower payments on water transport. This was partially offset by a $0.1 billion reduction in the commercial services surplus. Deficit on investment income expands The investment income deficit, the difference between incomes generated on Canada's international assets and liabilities, increased $0.5 billion to $4.8 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits earned by foreign direct investors on their Canadian assets were up $1.3 billion to their highest level since the end of 2014. On the receipt side, profits earned by Canadian direct investors on their assets abroad increased by $1.1 billion. Higher income payments on foreign holdings of Canadian securities, both equity and debt securities, also contributed to the increase in the deficit in the fourth quarter. Financial account Foreign investors acquire Canadian private corporate securities Foreign investment in Canadian securities totalled $33.3 billion in the fourth quarter, led by acquisitions of instruments issued by private corporations. For the year, foreign acquisitions of Canadian securities reached a record $161.3 billion. Foreign investment in Canadian bonds slowed to $11.6 billion, from $34.0 billion in the third quarter. Non-resident investors also acquired $4.7 billion of Canadian money market instruments. This activity was led by new issues abroad of private corporate debt securities denominated in US dollars. Foreign investors added $17.0 billion of Canadian shares to their holdings in the fourth quarter, the largest investment since the second quarter of 2004. Canadian stock prices were up by 3.8% and the Canadian dollar depreciated against its US counterpart by 1.8 US cents in the quarter. 4 Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Chart 4 Foreign investment in Canadian securities billions of dollars 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 IV I 2011 II III 2012 IV I II III 2013 IV Governments I II III 2014 IV I II III 2015 IV I II III 2016 IV Corporations Source(s): CANSIM table 376-0132. Canadian portfolio investment abroad slows Canadian investment in foreign securities slowed to $0.7 billion in the fourth quarter, from $8.0 billion in the third quarter. Purchases of foreign shares were moderated by sales of foreign debt securities. Canadian investment in foreign shares amounted to $10.1 billion, led by purchases of non-US foreign shares. At the same time, Canadian holdings of foreign debt securities were down by $9.4 billion, the largest decline since the fourth quarter of 2008. A record divestment in US Treasury instruments contributed to the decline in the quarter. Outward direct investment outpaces inward direct investment Direct investment abroad reached $29.8 billion in the fourth quarter, with the investment almost entirely in the form of equity instruments. Approximately one-half of the investment was related to merger and acquisition activities, and about half of the direct investment abroad was in the United States. The fourth quarter closed a year of strong outward direct investment by Canadian corporations, led by mergers and acquisitions activity. Direct investment in Canada was $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter, slightly higher than the $9.1 billion recorded in the third quarter. For a second straight quarter, equity investment made by foreign parents in Canadian affiliates accounted for all of the investment as there was a reduction in debt liabilities of Canadian affiliates to their foreign parents. For the year, inward direct investment was the lowest since 2011 at $41.8 billion. Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X 5 The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Chart 5 Foreign direct investment billions of dollars 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 IV I 2011 II III 2012 IV I Direct investment assets II III 2013 IV I II III 2014 IV I II III 2015 IV I Direct investment liabilities Source(s): CANSIM table 376-0104. 6 Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X II III 2016 IV The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 In celebration of the country's 150th birthday, Statistics Canada is presenting snapshots from our rich statistical history. Data on the current account of the balance of payments are available from 1926. Since that time, trade in goods, also referred to as "visible items" at the time, has accounted for the larger share of the international activity in comparison with non-goods trade, or "invisible items". With the exception of the period 1930 to 1945, characterized by the effects of the Great Depression and the Second World War, trade in goods has always accounted for approximately 70% to 80% of all current account transactions. Today it represents 70%. Chart 6 Canada 150 – Trade in goods as a share of total current account transactions, 1926 to 2016 % 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1926 1934 1942 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Note(s): Definitions of goods and current account from the two CANSIM tables are not fully equivalent. Source(s): CANSIM table 376-0001 for 1926 to 1980 and CANSIM table 376-0101 for 1981 to 2016. Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X 7 The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Table 1 Balance of payments – Not seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter 2015 First quarter 2016 Second quarter 2016 Third quarter 2016 Fourth quarter 2016 2015 2016 millions of dollars Capital account and current account Net lending / net borrowing, from capital account and current account Current account balances Goods and services Goods Services Primary income Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Secondary income Capital account balance Financial account1,2 Net lending / net borrowing, from financial account Net acquisition of financial assets Direct investment assets Direct investment assets, equity Direct investment assets, debt instruments Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities Foreign debt securities Foreign money market instruments Foreign bonds Foreign equity and investment fund shares Official international reserves Other Canadian investment abroad Loans Currency and deposits Trade credits and advances Other accounts receivable Net incurrence of liabilities Direct investment liabilities Direct investment liabilities, equity Direct investment liabilities, debt instruments Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities Canadian debt securities Canadian money market instruments Canadian bonds Canadian equity and investment fund shares Other foreign investment in Canada Loans Currency and deposits Special drawing rights Trade credits and advances Other accounts payable Discrepancy (net errors and omissions) -13,814 -13,812 -9,063 -3,817 -5,246 -3,801 -460 -3,341 1,861 -5,395 193 -948 -2 -19,444 -19,393 -13,247 -5,311 -7,936 -4,079 -428 -3,651 2,716 -5,574 -793 -2,067 -51 -20,823 -20,823 -18,668 -12,664 -6,004 -2,176 -501 -1,674 3,680 -5,246 -108 20 0 -19,415 -19,375 -14,293 -10,943 -3,350 -4,620 -493 -4,128 1,696 -5,495 -329 -461 -40 -8,104 -8,104 -1,758 3,049 -4,807 -5,709 -440 -5,268 831 -5,709 -391 -637 0 -67,659 -67,552 -47,457 -23,002 -24,455 -16,489 -1,960 -14,529 8,643 -22,329 -844 -3,606 -106 -67,786 -67,695 -47,967 -25,869 -22,098 -16,584 -1,862 -14,722 8,924 -22,025 -1,621 -3,145 -91 -12,640 63,999 9,986 17,233 -7,246 -19,529 13,217 16,468 15,225 1,243 -17,303 73,753 13,686 18,892 -5,206 -14,119 45,930 25,206 23,885 1,321 -14,147 64,390 29,755 29,653 103 -68,275 201,722 102,158 80,604 21,554 -65,099 197,290 85,115 87,655 -2,539 37,021 22,946 -268 23,215 14,074 3,580 13,413 -1,635 11,157 73 3,817 76,640 318 19,440 -19,121 -8,774 5,204 -1,182 6,387 -13,978 1,553 3,971 13,217 -897 86 -8,435 32,747 10,186 5,799 4,387 13,812 1,676 11 1,665 12,135 2,552 43,703 2,914 35,857 -235 5,167 91,056 12,731 8,649 4,082 8,008 -3,705 695 -4,399 11,713 1,464 11,252 1,334 6,839 -77 3,157 60,049 9,142 13,775 -4,633 747 -9,390 -1,128 -8,262 10,137 1,821 32,067 -6,979 18,876 565 19,605 78,537 9,741 17,451 -7,711 60,236 34,873 -1,441 36,314 25,363 10,911 28,417 22,644 4,235 173 1,365 269,997 69,508 76,364 -6,857 13,792 -6,214 -1,604 -4,610 20,006 7,390 90,992 10,485 60,675 339 19,493 262,389 41,800 45,674 -3,874 23,655 14,322 4,124 10,198 9,333 52,666 1,666 50,451 0 306 243 49,357 39,127 3,881 35,246 10,230 -26,797 2,072 -29,316 0 230 217 41,577 25,576 1,642 23,934 16,001 36,747 2,412 34,521 0 -504 317 37,078 26,905 -7,143 34,048 10,173 13,829 -3,556 17,028 0 -35 392 33,264 16,294 4,727 11,568 16,970 35,532 9,771 25,408 0 110 242 106,024 91,599 6,058 85,542 14,425 94,466 12,009 80,474 0 915 1,068 161,276 107,902 3,107 104,795 53,374 59,312 10,700 47,641 0 -198 1,170 1,174 -85 3,520 5,296 -6,043 -616 2,687 1. Transactions are recorded on a net basis. 2. In the financial account, a plus sign denotes an increase in investment and a minus sign denotes a decrease in investment. Source(s): CANSIM tables 376-0101, 376-0102, 376-0103 and 376-0104. 8 Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Table 2 Current account – Seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter 2015 First quarter 2016 Second quarter 2016 Current account receipts Goods and services Goods Services Travel Transportation Commercial services Government services Primary income Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Interest Profits Portfolio investment Interest on debt securities Dividends on equity and investment fund shares Other investment Secondary income Private transfers Government transfers 182,864 157,390 131,345 26,046 5,413 3,935 16,307 391 22,895 436 22,459 12,263 1,559 10,704 7,801 2,428 5,374 2,394 2,579 939 1,640 181,602 156,942 130,372 26,570 5,788 4,020 16,367 396 22,005 444 21,561 11,478 1,330 10,148 7,871 2,564 5,306 2,213 2,654 941 1,713 177,128 150,674 124,192 26,482 5,910 3,995 16,192 384 23,195 442 22,753 12,518 1,390 11,129 7,855 2,679 5,176 2,379 3,259 1,661 1,599 Current account payments Goods and services Goods Services Travel Transportation Commercial services Government services Primary income Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Interest Profits Portfolio investment Interest on debt securities Dividends on equity and investment fund shares Other investment Secondary income Private transfers Government transfers 199,458 168,601 136,611 31,990 9,557 6,390 15,748 294 27,040 906 26,134 10,569 1,188 9,381 13,250 9,761 3,489 2,314 3,817 2,475 1,343 199,422 169,378 137,127 32,251 9,520 6,480 15,958 293 26,197 909 25,287 9,184 1,073 8,111 13,477 9,961 3,516 2,627 3,847 2,403 1,445 Current account balances Goods and services Goods Services Travel Transportation Commercial services Government services Primary income Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Interest Profits Portfolio investment Interest on debt securities Dividends on equity and investment fund shares Other investment Secondary income Private transfers Government transfers -16,595 -11,211 -5,266 -5,945 -4,145 -2,456 559 97 -4,145 -470 -3,675 1,694 371 1,323 -5,449 -7,334 1,885 80 -1,239 -1,536 297 -17,820 -12,436 -6,755 -5,681 -3,732 -2,461 409 103 -4,192 -466 -3,726 2,294 257 2,037 -5,606 -7,396 1,790 -414 -1,193 -1,462 269 Third quarter 2016 Fourth quarter 2016 2015 2016 183,661 157,393 130,257 27,136 6,142 4,159 16,446 388 23,392 445 22,947 12,251 1,413 10,837 7,973 2,733 5,241 2,723 2,876 966 1,910 191,350 163,522 136,547 26,976 6,217 4,146 16,216 397 24,738 450 24,288 13,429 1,459 11,970 8,015 2,707 5,308 2,844 3,090 989 2,101 729,457 627,236 524,940 102,296 21,179 15,606 63,946 1,565 91,097 1,692 89,405 51,764 5,484 46,280 29,272 9,017 20,255 8,369 11,123 3,687 7,437 733,741 628,531 521,368 107,163 24,057 16,319 65,221 1,565 93,329 1,781 91,548 49,676 5,592 44,083 31,714 10,683 21,031 10,158 11,880 4,557 7,323 196,529 167,415 135,489 31,926 9,473 6,385 15,769 299 25,598 913 24,685 8,956 1,046 7,910 13,089 9,578 3,511 2,640 3,515 2,395 1,120 203,410 171,519 138,867 32,652 9,724 6,506 16,119 303 28,139 910 27,230 10,665 1,055 9,610 13,408 9,807 3,602 3,156 3,751 2,399 1,352 202,076 168,186 135,754 32,432 9,847 6,337 15,944 304 29,979 910 29,069 11,947 1,055 10,892 13,765 10,007 3,758 3,356 3,911 2,444 1,467 797,009 674,693 547,942 126,751 38,515 25,826 61,234 1,176 107,586 3,652 103,934 43,121 4,571 38,550 51,601 37,605 13,996 9,213 14,730 9,583 5,147 801,436 676,498 547,237 129,261 38,564 25,708 63,790 1,199 109,913 3,643 106,270 40,752 4,229 36,523 53,739 39,352 14,387 11,779 15,025 9,641 5,384 -19,400 -16,741 -11,297 -5,444 -3,563 -2,390 423 85 -2,403 -471 -1,932 3,562 344 3,218 -5,234 -6,899 1,665 -260 -256 -734 479 -19,749 -14,127 -8,610 -5,516 -3,582 -2,347 327 85 -4,747 -465 -4,283 1,586 359 1,227 -5,435 -7,074 1,639 -434 -875 -1,433 558 -10,726 -4,663 793 -5,456 -3,630 -2,191 272 93 -5,241 -460 -4,781 1,482 404 1,078 -5,750 -7,300 1,550 -513 -821 -1,455 634 -67,552 -47,457 -23,002 -24,455 -17,336 -10,221 2,713 389 -16,489 -1,960 -14,529 8,643 913 7,730 -22,329 -28,588 6,259 -844 -3,606 -5,896 2,289 -67,695 -47,967 -25,869 -22,098 -14,507 -9,389 1,431 366 -16,584 -1,862 -14,722 8,924 1,363 7,561 -22,025 -28,669 6,644 -1,621 -3,145 -5,084 1,939 millions of dollars Source(s): CANSIM tables 376-0101 and 376-0105. Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X 9 The Daily, Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Note to readers Definitions The balance of international payments covers all economic transactions between Canadian residents and non-residents in three accounts: the current account, the capital account and the financial account. The current account covers transactions in goods, services, compensation of employees, investment income and secondary income (current transfers). The current account data in this release are seasonally adjusted. For information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonally adjusted data – Frequently asked questions. The capital account covers capital transfers and transactions in non-produced, non-financial assets. The financial account covers transactions in financial assets and liabilities. In principle, a net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) derived from the sum of the current and capital accounts corresponds to a net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) derived from the financial account. In practice, as data are compiled from multiple sources, this is rarely the case and gives rise to measurement error. The discrepancy (net errors and omissions) is the unobserved net inflow or outflow. For more information on the balance of payments, consult the Frequently asked questions section in the System of macroeconomic accounts module of our website. The module also presents the most recent balance of payments statistics. Real-time CANSIM table Real-time CANSIM table 376-8105 will be updated on March 13. For more information, consult the document, Real-time CANSIM tables. Next release Balance of international payments data for the first quarter will be released on May 30. Available in CANSIM: tables 376-0012, 376-0013, 376-0101 to 376-0108, 376-0110, 376-0111 and 376-0121 to 376-0124. Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers 1534, 1535, 1536 and 1537. The Methodological Guide: Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts (13-607-X) is available. The User Guide: Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts (13-606-G) is also available. This publication will be updated to maintain its relevance. For more information, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; [email protected]). To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Denis Caron (613-808-2278; [email protected]), International Accounts and Trade Division. 10 Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X
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