Climate Change Impacts in Metro Boston
and Beyond
Paul Kirshen
Research Leader, Battelle Memorial Institute
Adjunct Professor, Tufts University
[email protected]
[email protected]
October 15, 2010
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“Since all human and natural
systems are sensitive to climate,
all human and natural systems
will be impacted by climate
change. “
Northeast Climate Impacts
Assessment
Climate across the Northeast is
already changing
• Annual temperatures up
almost 2ºF since 1970
• Winters are warming fastest,
at 1.3ºF per decade since
1970
• Snowpack and lake ice are
decreasing
• Spring indicators are arriving
earlier
• Extreme heat in summer is
becoming more frequent
12
o
temperature change ( F)
NE Average Annual Temperatures
10
8
6
observations
higher emissions
lower emissions
4
2
0
The result of today’s
emissions choices
-2
-4
1900
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Unavoidable warming
(yesterday’s choices)
1950
2000
2050
2100
Heat index
How summers
could “feel”
Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Increases in
Extreme Heat in
Northeast Cities
AP Photo/Michael Kim
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
The Changing Face of Winter
NECIA/UCS (www.climatechoices.org)
Changing Precipitation
•Increasing winter precipitation (more rain, less snow)
•More frequent and intense periods of heavy rainfall
Axe Handle Brook, NH 2006
AP Photo/ Lee Marriner
Changes in the Water Cycle
More water
when we don’t
need it.
Art Otremba
Less water
when we do.
USGS/David Armstrong
Increasing Risk of Poor Air Quality
in Northeast Cities
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007
(see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
James Estrin/NY Times/Redux
Vector-Borne Disease
USGS
Tonyand
Tremblay
Jerry
Marcy Monkman
Emissions Choices May Redefine Waters Suitable for Cod
Cod
Source: NECIA/UCs, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Norbert Psuty
Jerry and Marcy Monkman
• More frequent
flooding
• More coastal erosion
• Wetland inundation
and loss
Michael Dwyer
Table of Future Flood
Recurrence Intervals
100-yr Storm Surge
Elevation at MHHW
(feet NAVD)
Station
Boston
2050
3
2
51
46
61
56
50
46
24
2100
<<2
<<2
21
9
32
17
22
11
<2
B1 (mid-range)
7.7
8.7
9.5
11.6
4
A1FI (mid-range)
7.7
8.7
9.6
12.1
4
Estimated storm surge elevations for 2005, 2050 and 2100 for each site. Also included are the
recurrence intervals in 2050 and 2100 for the 2005 100-year storm surge elevation
<<2
<<2
Woods Hole
New London
New York City
Scenario
B1 (mid-range)
A1FI (mid-range)
B1 (mid-range)
A1FI (mid-range)
B1 (mid-range)
A1FI (mid-range)
B1 (mid-range)
A1FI (mid-range)
Rahmstorf (mid-range)
Atlantic City
Based on 7.06.07 table
Kirshen, et al, 2007
2005
9.7
9.7
10.0
10.0
7.4
7.4
9.0
9.0
9.0
2030
10.2
10.2
10.2
10.2
7.6
7.6
9.3
9.3
9.5
2050
10.7
10.7
10.5
10.5
7.8
7.8
9.5
9.6
10.1
2100
11.8
12.3
11.1
11.6
8.3
8.9
10.2
10.7
12.5
Recurrence
Interval of
2005 100-yr
Anomaly
(years)
Boston: 2100 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario
Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions
Scenario
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
(IPCC, WG1, 2007)
Burkina Faso
Bonam village
Life expectancy at birth:
male
45.6
female
47.6
Total fertility rate x woman:
6.9
Infant mortality rate (x 1000): 105
Child (<5) mortality rate (x 1000): 198
Literacy rate (% age 15 +)
male
33.9
female
14.1
Annual Population growth rate: 2.6 %
Human Development Index rank: 169 (of 173)
Gender development Index rank: 143 (of 173)
90 percent of population supported by agriculture, 80 %
subsistence.
10 –15 % of food imported
Seasonal livelihoods
Dry season:
November to May
Rainy (farming) season
May to October
CFAR Sites
BONAM, Central Plateau
(met station at Boulsa)
Annual rainfall: 600-700 mm
Inhabitants mostly Mossi, some settled Fulbe
Rainfed farming: sorghum, millet, maize, groundnuts, B.gnuts, cowpea, rice
30% of hh have plows
Planting maize
Bonam, July 1999
Adaptation
• Reactive – wait until impacts have occurred
• Proactive – take actions before major impacts
have occurred – much research has shown this
is generally more cost effective
• Planning must include both natural and built
environment
Adaptation to Climate Change
• Do Nothing
• Accommodate
• Protect
• Retreat
Scenario Projections for
Eustatic SLR
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009)
.
Example of Effective
Adaptation Strategy (adjustable and
flexible, involved stakeholders, uses multiple approaches, multi-criteria
evaluation, staged over time, updated as needed, forestalls large
investments until really needed but preserves the options and has decision
trigger points based upon the amount of climate change and other
indicators – biophysical as well as socio-economic).
The Plan
Trigger
Points
Flexibility
Discussion Questions
What makes the threat of climate change
different from other local and global
threats such as nuclear proliferation, the
global recession and population growth ?
At what scale does action need to be taken
to adjust or adapt to the impacts of
climate change ?
What would you do to help Lowell adapt ?
Thank you very much
Paul Kirshen, Battelle
[email protected]
781 987 4022
BUSINESS SENSITIVE
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