THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE MONITORING CENTER
AN ANALYTICAL INTELLIGENCE WIRE PREPARED BY THE
STUDENTS OF EMBRY-RIDDLE AERONAUTICAL UNIVERSITY IN
PRESCOTT, ARIZONA.
NUMBER (223)
23 October 2014
In This Issue:
SITUATION REPORTS
CAMEROON: Army Kills Boko Haram Members
INDONESIA: Joko Widodo Inaugurated
IRAN: Top Cleric Dies
JAPAN: Former Ambassador Caught in Spy Scandal
MEXICO: New Graves Spark Protest
SOUTH KOREA: Tension Escalates After Border Gunfire
SOUTH SUDAN: Military Cooperation Agreement with Uganda
UKRAINE: Claims Troops and Separatists Used Banned Weapons
BRIEFS
BRAZIL: Prison Takeover Leaves Government Perplexed
CHINA: Villagers and Developers Clash Over Property Rights
COLOMBIA: Peace Threatened
EGYPT: Anti-Government Protests at Elite Universities
EGYPT: Human Rights Group Center Closed
INDIA: Nuclear Deal Made in Record Time
INDIA: Successful Test-Fire of Cruise Missile
PHILIPPINES: Military Rescue on Hold
RUSSIA: Hackers Spy on NATO and Western Countries
UKRAINE: Agreement on Gas Talks with Russia
UNITED KINGDOM: Push for Scottish Independence Continues
VENEZUELA: UN Pressure on Opposition Arrests
YEMEN: Saudi and Iranian Support Threatens Proxy War
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SITUATION REPORTS
AFRICA
CAMEROON: Army Kills Boko Haram Members
On 17 October, Cameroon announced that its army succeeded in killing 107 Boko Haram
militants within that week. Heavy fighting ensued on 15 and 16 October in two different
areas of northern Cameroon. The violence also reportedly resulted in the deaths of eight
Cameroonian soldiers.
SOUTH SUDAN: Military Cooperation Agreement with Uganda
Defense minister Koul Manyang Juuk stated on 13 October, that the South Sudanese
government has signed a long-term military cooperation agreement with Uganda. This
agreement will allow Uganda to purchase military weapons and technology on South
Sudan’s behalf. Juuk states that the arms will help South Sudan, “bolster security” and is
not intended to be used to violate the cease-fire present in force with the rebel faction.
James Gatdet Dak, the rebel spokesperson, has stated that the Ugandan arms will enable
President Kiir to “wage war.” This deal comes after unsuccessful peace talks in Ethiopia
between the two warring parties.
AMERICAS
MEXICO: New Graves Spark Protest
On 17 October, new mass graves were uncovered near the town of Iguala Mexico.
Several of the graves remain empty, prompting speculation as to who were the intended
victims. Demonstrators continue to protest nationwide against police corruption and for
the return 43 students, missing since 27 September.
EAST ASIA
JAPAN: Former Ambassador Caught in Spy Scandal
On 19 October, the Chinese Foreign Ministry officially confirmed reports that it has
appointed Zhang Weidong as the new ambassador to Iceland. The former ambassador,
Ma Jisheng, is reportedly being held by the Ministry of State Security on charges of being
a Japanese spy. Ma had worked at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo from 2004 to 2008,
where Beijing claims he was recruited by Japanese Intelligence. Japan has declined to
comment.
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SOUTH KOREA: Tension Escalates After Border Gunfire
On 19 October, South Korean soldiers fired at North Korean soldiers after the latter were
seen approaching the military demarcation line near the city of Paju. Reports say that
North Korean officials are threatening retaliation if this type of action continues. South
Korean representatives stated that the soldiers were following protocol and gave verbal
warning before firing. The high-level talks scheduled before this conflict are still on track
to occur.
EUROPE
UKRAINE: Claims Troops and Separatists Used Banned Weapons
On 19 October, Human Rights Watch announced that Ukrainian government forces, and
possibly separatist forces, are using banned cluster munitions in populated urban areas.
Both sides have used 220 mm Uragon and 300 mm Smerch cluster munition rockets in
the conflict. Cluster munition rockets send out small bombs into the area, enabling
fighters to have greater coverage than with other weapons. The Ukrainian leadership
voted to conduct a full investigation into the claims made against the Ukrainian troops.
MIDDLE EAST
IRAN: Top Cleric Dies
On 21 October, Head Cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani of the Assembly
of Experts was pronounced dead following five months in a coma. There was no
immediate announcement of a successor to the Assembly. The Assembly of Experts
grants the supreme leader, the Vilyat-i-Faqih, or jurisconsult, permission to rule
indefinitely, but also maintains the power to remove him. Currently, Ayatollah
Khamanei, who followed Ayatollah Khomeini, is the Vilyat-i-Faqih.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
INDONESIA: Joko Widodo Inaugurated
On 20 October, Joko Widodo was sworn in as the new President of Indonesia. Widodo, a
former Jakarta governor, is the first president to not come from the political elite or a
military background. The newly-elected president promises to focus on improving
healthcare and education as well as reduce subsidies, including the $20 billion fuel
subsidy bill. He is popular among Indonesia’s poor, but faces a hostile Parliament.
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BRIEFS
AMERICAS
BRAZIL: Prison Takeover Leaves Government Perplexed
Summary: The overpopulation of Brazil's prisons has led to another violent prison
takeover, while the Brazilian government is still contemplating options in search of a
resolution.
Development: On 16 October, 40 prisoners incarcerated at Guarapuava correctional
facility in Paraná, Brazil overpowered twelve guards while on a working detail. The
rioters, armed with knives and clubs, took the guards and inmates hostage and demanded
better food, treatment, and living conditions. They also demanded the movement of
inmates to other facilities in trade for the release of those held captive. The masked
rioters proceeded to beat their hostages and took them to the roof to display their hostages
for the media. Five inmates and two guards were lit on fire and thrown off the roof before
negotiators and the rioters came to an agreement nearly 48 hours after the takeover. None
of the guards or prisoners held captive died, but all are currently receiving medical
treatment.
Analysis: With nearly 550,000 people in their prison system, Brazil is ranked fourth in
the world for the number of those incarcerated. Research conducted by the International
Center of Penitentiary Studies has determined that Brazil needs to increase its prisoner
capacity by 207,000 and increase the number of prison guards in order to control the
prisoner population. This overpopulation has resulted in unsanitary and crowded living
conditions for prisoners in recent years, and more violent behavior among those
incarcerated. The preferred tactic used by the prisoners is hostage taking, which
sometimes leads to executions, leading Brazilian prison guards to fear for their lives
while on the job and the Brazilian government has yet to announce and implement a
solution for its prison crisis.
[Sterling Maynard]
COLOMBIA: Peace Threatened
Summary: Recent visits to the Havana peace talks by high-level Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia’s (FARC) leaders and falling support for former Colombian
president Álvaro Uribe Vélez bode well for peace in Colombia.
Development: On 21 October, Colombian news sources confirmed that four additional
FARC commanders are on their way to join peace talks in Cuba. After seeming
uninvolved with the Havana peace talks for the last two years, FARC head Rodrigo
Londoño Echeverry (also known as Timochenko) has visited the FARC delegation to the
peace talks twice. Many Colombians have criticized both the governments of Colombia
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and Venezuela, where Timoshenko travelled from and is believed by some to be living,
for allowing a terrorist to freely move out of the country. With regard to Timochenko’s
trip to Cuba, former President Uribe, an outspoken critic of the current Colombian
administration, tweeted that President Juan Santos had “deceived the Armed Forces,
while terrorism continued in the country.”
Analysis: The FARC leadership probably intended the visit of Timochenko, considered
by many to be very uncompromising, to the Havana delegation as evidence that it truly
supports the peace process. This will help ease some of the fears that the general
population of Colombia has about the peace process and will increase support for Santos.
Uribe’s recent drop in public support also points to a public opinion swing towards
Santos and the Havana peace talks. The public outcry against the Venezuelan government
harboring extreme leftist terrorists, on the other hand, will likely harm the already
strained Colombia-Venezuelan relations. The signs of Colombian public support for the
peace talks increase the likelihood of their successful completion.
[Brandon Embrey]
VENEZUELA: UN Pressure on Opposition Arrests
Summary: President Nicolás Maduro has ignored the United Nations resolution on the
release of detained opposition leaders Leopoldo Lopez and Daniel Ceballos, potentially
creating a backlash that could undermine Venezuela’s attempts to hold on to its recently
acquired seat on the UN Security Council.
Development: On 16 October, Venezuela won a non-permanent seat on the United
Nations (UN) Security Council with 181 votes. Also on 16 October, however, Roland
Adjovi, a lawyer from Tanzania and 1 of 5 members on the UN Working Group on
Arbitrary Detention, announced that the 8 October resolution pushing for the release of
Leopoldo López and Daniel Ceballos was “binding upon the government.” Adjovi added
that the UN will take action if Venezuela does not comply. Lopez turned himself in on 18
February during a protest, while Ceballos was arrested on 20 March by intelligence
agents. Venezuela’s Constitution protects human rights and states it will comply with
international organizations.
Analysis: Over the past few weeks, Maduro has continued to maneuver to retain power
in Venezuela, although achieving the goal of the late President Hugo Chavez for a UN
Security Council seat has likely bolstered his support. Refusing to release the opposition
figures, however, will most likely lead to a rise in dissent. Lopez and Ceballos are
becoming more recognized on the world stage. Venezuela now has obligations on the
Security Council, thus making its human rights infringements more visible. As a result,
Maduro might calculate that he could win support by releasing Lopez and Ceballos, thus
complying with the resolution and removing pressure from the UN. Opposition protests
currently are isolated, and support is relatively high for Maduro’s administration. The
controversy over the arrests of Lopez and Ceballos probably would not generate effective
protest rallies at this time.
[Blake Dunford]
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EAST ASIA
CHINA: Villagers and Developers Clash Over Property Rights
Summary: Recent conflict between Chinese villagers and construction workers could
bring more authority to the local courts in the region.
Development: On 17 October, Chinese villagers in Yunnan Province attacked
construction workers in a southwestern town over property rights. The villagers were
forced to sell their lease rights to the land to developers, but were only paid small
amounts. In rural China, land cannot be “owned,” however local party units lease
cultivable land to farmers in multi-year contracts. In the conflict, six construction workers
and two villagers were killed. The villagers claim that the Chinese government and courts
favor the developers and do not care about the people already living there.
Analysis: Both sides have stated that they do not trust the courts to resolve their
problems and this has been a contributing factor to the conflict. The Chinese government
has stated that it will give more power to the local courts to try to curb the violence but it
will take time to build up trust from both sides. In many similar cases, local party
committees transfer land to developers and pocket most of the “transfer fee.” By itself,
this is enough to enrage villagers, but disturbances also break out when locals rise up
after industries come in and permanently ruin the land by dumping their waste products.
Every year, according to Chinese government reports, there are more than 100,000 local
disturbances, a number that appears to be growing annually.
[Ian Kane]
EUROPE
RUSSIA: Hackers Spy on NATO and Western Countries
Summary: A Russian hacktivist group implemented an attack on NATO and Western
Countries, which has led to the assumption that the Russian government supports this
group and attack.
Development: On 16 October, the cyber intelligence firm ISight reported an exploit that
Russian hackers used to access computers at NATO and others in Ukraine, and Poland.
Russia has had an ongoing hacking campaign for about five years. It has only been
recently that they have accomplished large scale hacks. This specific hack originated in
August of this year. The Russian hackers used a denial-of-service bot, considered a zero
day attack. The data that the Russian hackers have retrieved is unknown. However,
energy, telecommunications, and defense firms were the targeted inside Ukraine and
Poland. No money was taken from these hacks.
Analysis: Most facts suggest that the Russian government supports this campaign. This
campaign has been going on for about five years, with multiple accounts of high-end
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hacks taking place; however, Russia has not taken action against the group. This most
recent attack was solely for information, with no interest in anything else. Most hacks are
for fame or money. The group did not leave any signatures, like a codename, nor were
infrastructures that hold monetary value accessed. Also, the fact that NATO, and Ukraine
were two of the three targets gives a strong implication that this was a Russian backed
attack.
[Joseph Mehltretter]
UKRAINE: Agreement on Gas Talks with Russia
Summary: Ukraine and Russia have made progress towards a new agreement that would
provide Ukraine with enough natural gas to get through the coming winter months in
exchange for the repayment of Ukraine’s existing gas debt.
Development: On 17 September, President Petro Poroshenko and Russian President
Vladimir Putin announced limited updates in regards to resolving the issue of Ukraine’s
natural gas shortage during the upcoming winter. The new deal would result in Russia
providing Ukraine with the gas that it requires, which has been cut off since June. The
terms of the agreement have reworked the repayment of the $4.5 billion gas debt that
Ukraine already owes Russia so that Ukraine would pay approximately $1.5 billion of the
overall debt by the end of the year. The rest would be paid in installments through March
of 2015. In exchange, Russia’s natural gas company Gazprom will provide Ukraine with
five billion cubic meters of gas for the winter at $385/m 3. Western leaders in the
European Union will continue to put pressure on Russia to do more to halt the conflict
with the Ukrainian rebels.
Analysis: If Ukraine is unable to meet the financial demands of its agreement with
Russia, it is possible that it will turn to EU members and other western allies, including
the US, for assistance. This could potentially lead to negative financial impacts on the
countries solicited, along with potential negative political impacts on the countries either
unable or unwilling to provide financial support. Considering Russia has urged nations of
the EU to help Ukraine with its gas debt, it is possible that Russia is intentionally
attempting to manipulate the relationship in its benefit.
[Trevor Hunt]
UNITED KINGDOM: Push for Scottish Independence Continues
Summary: A new call for independence convinced many people to speak their opinions
about Scotland’s political future.
Development: On 17 October, despite the outcome of the vote on September 18, many
people still support the independence movement. One individual willing to lead this
second movement is the Scottish Nationalist Party politician Nicola Sturgeon. Many of
those that oppose her becoming the First Minister of Scotland argue she will continue
former First Minister Alex Salmond’s push for independence because she is unwilling to
accept the result of the referendum. While Nicola Sturgeon moves into the office of First
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Minister, Alex Salmond still signals his desire for Scottish independence by continuing to
support the campaign. He recently attended an event in Perth, the purpose of which was
to spark a grassroots program for pro-independence supporters and persuade others to
join.
Analysis: While the other regions of the United Kingdom attempt to move on, many
people in Scotland continue to push for independence. In reaction to the recent rallies for
independence, politicians in support of it have made their opinions known regarding the
future of Scotland. With this continued demand for independence, the British government
seems to be more accepting of the terms originally agreed upon before the referendum in
September. The British government also appears to be trying to change the powers the
Scottish parliament already holds.
[Austin McLeod]
MIDDLE EAST
YEMEN: Saudi and Iranian Support Threatens Proxy War
Summary: Increasing cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, in addition to overt
Iranian support for Houthi operations in Yemen threaten to turn Yemen into the host of a
violent proxy war.
Development: On 21 October, Saudi Arabian Ambassador Mohammed Saeed al-Jaber
admitted to giving $435 million in aid to the Social Welfare Fund in September to assist
the 1.5 million Yemenis most impacted by recent violence. The Kingdom also
acknowledged that it provided 12 million barrels of oil to Yemen over a two-month
period. Yemeni government leaks also revealed that the Houthi militants responsible for
the partial coup in September had signed an agreement with the son of former president
Ahmed Saleh, a Yemeni military commander. The deal facilitated Houthi seizure of key
cities and had the support of Iran.
Analysis: The Saudi deal indicates increasingly overt cooperation between Saudi Arabia
and Yemen. Saudi help in combating recent Houthi advances and the resulting unrest is
essential to mitigating the Houthi threat to Yemen’s stability and Saudi Arabia’s interests.
As the government leaks reveal, Iran is involved in the Houthi operations to seize control
of Yemen. If the Houthi militants are successful in conquering tracts of land, especially
port cities, this will give Iran a strategic base close to Saudi Arabia. This is a threat Saudi
Arabia cannot ignore. With both nations actively involved in Yemen, the Yemeni conflict
is rapidly turning into a proxy war. If Saudi Arabia and Iran increase their involvement in
Yemen, the conflict may turn more violent and lead to the complete dissolution of the
Yemeni government as its legitimacy is further threatened.
[Kellyn Wagner, [email protected]]
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NORTH AFRICA
EGYPT: Anti-Government Protests at Elite Universities
Summary: Anti- government protests erupted at University of Cairo and University of
al-Azhar, which could lead to greater friction in the country.
Development: On 16 October, more than 40 students were arrested after Egyptian police
with armored vehicles stormed the University of Cairo and University of al-Azhar to
suppress the pro-Morsi protests that were turning violent. The protestors called for other
students throughout Egypt to support ex-President Mohamed Morsi and rise up against
the government. The university students claimed that they were protesting against harsh
and restrictive university policies like the topics taught by the professors, the existence of
security guards, and metal detectors. They are also claiming that President Abdel Fattah
el-Sisi has detained 1200 peaceful student protestors since his election. The police were
called when the university went into lockdown and was overrun by violent students
clashing with professors and destroying metal detectors.
Analysis: If the students are correct about President El-Sisi’s unlawful detention of
students, then it is a possibility that el-Sisi is attempting to guide Egypt back to an
autocracy by silencing the intelligentsia. If Morsi’s supporters are misleading the students
with false information, then it is possible that President el-Sisi could be facing another
uprising from Morsi and his following. This appearance of social unrest and violence
could cause the international community to deny Egypt loans. These loans would be used
to reestablish Egypt’s economic infrastructure, which was undermined during Morsi’s
period of rule.
[Morgan Larson, [email protected]]
EGYPT: Human Rights Group Center Closed
Summary: The Carter Center in Egypt closed because of concerns over the peoples’
restriction of democratic rights, lessening the chance of Egypt making the full change to
democracy.
Development: On 16 October, The Carter Center, a human rights group, closed its center
in Egypt because of concerns over the restriction of democratic rights in the country. The
group sought to support the country’s move to democracy after the deposition of
President Hosni Mubarak. The Carter Center cited the “crackdown on dissidents,
opposition groups, and critical journalists, together with heightened restrictions on core
freedoms.” for its reason to leave. The center also said it would not send a mission to
observe this year’s parliamentary elections.
Analysis: The Carter Center closing in Egypt is a sign of the continuing problems in the
country. The Carter Center’s purpose was to help Egypt towards democracy, and the
closing of the center in Egypt shows their loss of faith in the situation. Without the Carter
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Center monitoring elections and guiding Egypt towards democracy it is likely that the
country will continue moving away from democracy.
[Jocelyn Wellings]
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA: Nuclear Deal Made in Record Time
Summary: India’s agreement with Canadian suppliers for uranium for its nuclear
reactors reflects Prime Minister Modi’s determination to significantly expand India’s
nuclear energy sector.
Development: On 15 October, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Foreign
Minister Baird met in New Delhi to collaborate on research and development of nuclear
power plants in India. The Canadian Mining and Energy Corporation (CAMECO) and
Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) in India plan to form several commercial contracts
between the two countries so that India can buy uranium and work towards CANDU
model nuclear reactors. The DAE wants to improve India’s nuclear reactors from their
current capacity of 200MW to 750MW.
Analysis: The deal signed between the two countries aids in accomplishing Modi’s
“Make India” campaign for the nuclear industry. Canada lending their expertise will be a
great asset to India as it seeks to continue its development. The nuclear agreement
between Canada and India permits the two to form a relationship that helps both of their
economies. Moreover, because CANDU light water reactors are not useful for producing
fissile material, these agreements will not strengthen India’s nuclear weapons programs.
Access to nuclear power plants of this kind should burnish India’s reputation as a
“responsible” power and will strengthen New Delhi’s bid for a seat on the Security
Council in the United Nations, as India seeks to be a major player in the international
community.
[Danielle Machado]
INDIA: Successful Test-Fire of Cruise Missile
Summary: The successful test-fire of the improved “Nirbhay” cruise missile indicates
that India’s defense industry well outpaces that of Pakistan and competes well with that
of China.
Development: India successfully test fired a nuclear-capable cruise missile on October
17. The test-fire occurred at an Integrated Missile Test Range in Chandipor, Odisha. The
name of the new cruise missile is “Nirbhay” which means fearless. The capabilities of
this new cruise missile are reported as being capable of operating at treetop level and
strike targets at a range of more than 700 km away. India will also be able to start using
signals from its country’s space system once India’s satellite navigation fleet is fully
developed. The prior attempt to loft a navigation satellite into space in March 2013 ended
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with an early termination due to the deviation of the launch system from its directed
course in the first 20 minutes of flight.
Analysis: This act of creating a cruise missile that is nuclear-capable and rivals that of
the US Tomahawk, shows that India is becoming very serious about increasing its’
national security against both China and Pakistan. The timing could suggest that India is
using tests of advanced weapons to back its campaign to gain a permanent seat on the UN
Security Council. This could explain why the test firing was so widely publicized,
although these events are also matters of national pride. Another possibility for the
publicity around the test is posturing designed to increase national security, particularly
along the contested border regions with Pakistan and China.
[Garrett Geenen]
SOUTHEAST ASIA
PHILIPPINES: Military Rescue on Hold
Summary: The Armed Forces of the Philippines plan to rescue two German hostages
held by Abu Sayyaf, was halted by the Philippine Crisis Management Committee while
talks were underway for a peaceful release.
Development: The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) have halted all attempts to
rescue two German hostages, Stefan Okonek, 74, and his wife Henrike Dielen, 42, from
Abu Sayyaf on 15 October. The Philippines Crisis Management Committee (CMC)
ordered the AFP to stop all activities, believing it can peacefully gain the prisoners’
release. The Philippine military has deployed 7 battalions and a company size of K-9
tracking units to seek out the German citizens on the island of Sulu. The two German
hostages were kidnapped last April while on vacation off Palawan.
Analysis: Abu Sayyaf is funded primarily through ransom and extortion, and has set the
German hostages ransom at $5.62 million, threatening to behead one of them if they do
not receive the payment. German citizens have called on the Philippine and German
governments to hasten their release as their health is deteriorating. General Catapang is
waiting to see if the CMC can come to a peaceful resolution before conducting rescue
operations. This could be interpreted as hopeful on account of the length of the hostages
captivity that there is hope for a peaceful resolution. If the peaceful option backfires, the
Philippines could face international backlash.
[Brady Harrell]
_____________________________________________________________
THIS IS A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING PREPARED BY THE STUDENTS OF THE
GLOBAL SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE STUDIES PROGRAM AT EMBRY-RIDDLE
AERONAUTICAL UNIVERSITY IN PRESCOTT, ARIZONA. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN
THIS BRIEFING ARE THOSE OF THE STUDENTS, NOT THE UNIVERSITY. FOR
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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, CONTACT DR. PHILIP E. JONES, (928) 777-6992 OR THE
EAGLE EYE EDITING BOARD:
Coleen Parker, [email protected]
Kasmer Kosciolek, [email protected]
Kellyn Wagner, [email protected]
Candice Berdahl, [email protected]
Alex Vinck, [email protected]
Madison Landry, [email protected]
Sam Krivin, [email protected]
Morgan Larson, [email protected]
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