ICES mar. Sei. Symp., 195: 32-39. 1992 Variability of convective conditions in the Greenland Sea Jens Meincke, Steingn'mur Jönsson, and James H. Swift M eincke, J ., Jö n s so n , S ., an d Swift, J. H. 1992. Variability o f convective conditions in th e G r e e n la n d Sea. - IC E S m ar. Sei. S ym p., 195: 32-39. R ecent o bservations a n d d a ta com pilations show decadal an d in teran n u al v ariations in the d e p th o f w intertim e convection in the G r e e n la n d Sea. In a qualitative study the fluctuations arc related to changes in wind an d t h erm o h alin e forcing. C h a n g es in both wind-stress curl an d sea-ice cover concur with the results from h y d ro g rap h ic o b se r vations indicating that no renew al o f d e e p w a te r has ta k e n place d u rin g th e 1980s. Jens M eincke: Institut f ü r M eeresku n d e der Universität, H am burg, G erm any; Steingn' m u r Jö n sso n : The M arine Research Institute a n d U niversity o f A ku reyri, A ku reyri, Iceland; Ja m es H. Sw ift: Scripps Institution o f O ceanography, L a Jolla, California, U SA . Introduction T h e process of convective renew al of w aters in the G reen lan d Sea is a m ajor influence on the therm ohaline circulation o f two systems (A ag aard et a l., 1985): on the o n e hand it is on e o f the sources for th e form ation of interm ed iate w aters which leave the area as overflows across th e G re e n lan d -S co tlan d ridge an d drive the global circulation system o f the N o rth A tlantic D eep W ater. O n the o th e r hand it contributes significantly to the d eep circulation internal to the A rctic O cean/N ordic Seas system, which is confined to the area n orth of the Bering Strait and north of the G re e n lan d -S co tlan d ridge. T he division betw een the two systems can be defined by the sigma - 1 level o f 32.785, which is found aroun d 1500-m d ep th in the N ordic Seas. This is the m axim um d epth of w inter convection th a t determ ines w h ether convective renew al is limited to interm ediate w ater o r affects both interm ediate and deep levels. W ith this background a study on the variability of convective depths in the G reen lan d Sea is im po rtant for the role of the oceans in climate. This contribution will illustrate the variability and discuss the mechanism causing it. The convective system A much im proved database and conceptual modelling have led to a fairly consistent picture of convective w ater mass transform ation in th e A rctic O cean/N ordic Seas system. T h e th e rm o haline part is d om inated by the 32 regionally varying interaction o f th ree m em bers in TSspace (A ag aard et al., 1985; R udels and Q u ad fasel, 1991), illustrated in Figure 2: cold and fresh w ater from run off and m elting, cold and saline w ater from brine released during sea-ice form ation , and w arm and saline w ater con tribu ted from A tlantic inflows. In the A rctic O cean wide shelf areas th e brine from seasonal sea-ice form ation accum ulates in troughs and trenches (M idttun, 1985) before spilling ov er th e shelf edge. It sinks dow n th e slopes as dense high salinity plum es at n e a r freezing tem p eratu res, entraining in particularly w arm in term ediate w ater of A tla ntic origin, and results in A rctic O cean D e e p W a te r (A O D W ) , the w arm est and m ost saline d eep w ater c o m p o n en t in the A rctic O cean/N ordic Seas system. In the case o f the d eep G reen lan d Sea th e saline plum es from sea-ice form ation enrich the relatively fresh u p p e r A rctic layer with salt, such th a t subsequ en t plum es p en etrate the halocline into w arm in term ediate layers. T o preserve continuity, the w arm w ater rises to the surface, w here it melts the ice and th e reb y stops the convection. A fte r cooling and new ice form ation a new haline convection cycle can start (R udels, 1990). This results: in a stepwise increase of convective depths (R udels et a l. , 1989), in extrem ely w eak m ean stratifi cation (Fig. 2), and in G reen lan d Sea D e e p W ater (G S D W ), the coldest and freshest d eep w ater co m ponent. T h e o th e r d eep w ater co m po nents, which are TS-wise b etw een the characteristics of those from the Arctic O cean and the G reen lan d Sea, are a p roduct of mixing betw een the latter (A ag aard et al., 1991). T he therm oh aline part o f the convective system Figure 1. T o p o g ra p h y o f th e N ordic Seas. FS = F ra m S trait, B = B o reas Basin, G = G r e e n la n d B asin, B + G = G r e e n la n d Sea B asin, L = L o fo ten Basin, N = N orw egian B asin, I = Iceland S ea Basin. ATLANTIC INFLOW RIVER RUN-OFF BRINE 24 34 Figure 2. S chem atic T S-relationships for the A rctic O cea n/ N o rd ic Seas system. A = G r e e n la n d S ea, B = A rctic O cea n , C = N o rw egian Sea. T h e e n d m e m b e rs are na m e d . closely interacts w ith the w ind-driven p art. N ext in im p ortance to the large-scale wind forcing, which gov erns the flux of A tlan tic w aters and P olar w aters thro u g h o u t the system, the basin-scale wind forcing is particularly im po rtan t. L egutke (1990) has show n th a t it is the matching betw een the along-isobath circulation and the co n to u r integral of the wind stress along f/Hcontours a ro u n d the basis that determ ines the effective ness of wind forcing. This has two consequences: with varying scales o f wind forcing, different-sized cyclonic gyres are excited in accordance with the different sizes of topographic basins (see Fig. 1). F or the G re e n la n d Sea this ranges from a one-gyre situation covering both the G reen lan d and B oreas Basin to a two-gyre situation with separate cyclonic circulations for each o f the two basins. T h e second consequence is related to the varying in ten sity of wind forcing. It results in a varying deform ation of the interface betw een the d eep and interm ed iate waters, i.e. a varying intensity of the “d om in g ” of the d eep w ater in the gyres. 34.900 34.896 - 1.20 GSP 34.888 DWP c l - 1.25 195 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 Figure 3. T im e series o f a verage p o tential t e m p e r a tu re below 2000 m in th e G r e e n la n d Basins. D a ta from sta tions with b o tto m d e p th exceeding 3000 m. T h e tw o single dots m ark c o rre sp o n d in g salinities o b ta in e d d uring th e IC E S D e e p W a te r Project ( D W P ) (C lark e et a!., 1990) an d d uring the G r e e n la n d Sea Project (G S P ) (G S P G r o u p , 1991 ). 0 - an d S-scales were choscn such th a t in th e event o f constant d e e p -w a te r density 0 an d S -variations would show as parallel curves. Observed variations in convective activity T he reasons for the scarcity o f time-series inform ation on the convective renew al of w ater masses in the A rctic O cean /N ordic Seas system are obvious: extrem e diffi culty o f access to the A rctic O cean and signal am plitudes close to the m e asu rem en t resolution for the traditional ocean ographic p ara m e te rs are tw o m ajor reasons. It is only since th e mid-1970s tha t salinities have been ro u tinely m e asu red to 0.002 psu and tha t an throp ogenic tracers have beco m e available as ad eq u ate param eters. C onsequ en tly , a tim e series on convective renew al over a decadal tim e scale can only be inferred from te m p e ra ture m easu rem en ts in th e G re e n la n d Basin (Fig. 3). T hey show tw o w arm (late 1950s an d late 1980s) an d one cold (early 1970s) p eriod for the d eep w ater, suggesting a time scale in the o rd e r o f 30 years. Since the w ater masses o f the gyre of the G re e n la n d Basin are to p o graphically tra p p e d and have horizontal te m p e ra tu re gradients m uch sm aller th a n the observed variations in tim e, the observ ed cooling can be in terp reted as being do m in ate d by renew al of G S D W , w hereas the w arm ing periods are d om in ate d by mixing with w aters a ro u n d the gyre. T h ere are two salinity values of sufficient quality ad d ed to Figure 3. T h e salinity scale was chosen such th a t in th e case of constant density th e te m p e ra tu re and salinity curves w ould be parallel. This is not the case, indicating th a t non-isopycnic mixing occurs (A a g a a rd et al., 1991). T he in terp retatio n o f th e w arm ing period for the 1980s in the d eep w ater can be substan tiate d from 34 increased observational activity, resulting in m ore detailed estim ates of the annu al d epth o f convective overturning. T he D e e p W a te r Project (C larke et al., 1990) surveyed the G re e n la n d Sea in w inter and early su m m er 1982 and found the convection d ep th at 500 m. F o r the p eriod 1986-1989 (G S P -G ro u p , 1990) convec tive depths w ere d e term in ed to be 200,1300 a nd 1600 m for the G re e n la n d Sea gyre. In co m b ination with analyses of an th rop ogenic tracers covering the period 1972 to 1989, which show a cessation o f d eep w ater form ation from 1980 o nw ards (Schlosser et al., 1991), it can be concluded th a t the 1980s have to be characterized by no detectable renew al o f w aters in th e G re e n la n d Sea below 1600 m. O b servation s by N agurny and P opov (1985) suggest convection dow n to the b o tto m in w inter 1984. This is reg ard ed as q u estio nable, since salinity tim e series presen ted for the G S D W by P opov (pers. co m m .) show u n reason ab le fluctuations. T h ere are two pieces o f observational evidence fo r the cooling p erio d in the early 1970s. M alm b erg (1983) re p o rts having observ ed convective conditions of the central G re e n la n d Basin dow n to 3500 m in w inter 1971. T h e o th e r evidence com es from tritium d eterm inations (Schlosser et al., 1991), which suggest intensive d eep w ater form ation having occurred betw een th e mid-1960s and the early 1970s. Causes of convective variability T h e description o f th e convective variability o f the G reen lan d Sea has revealed decadal and interan nual tim e scales. T he literature offers only a few discussions on possible causes. A a g aard (1968) correlated long-term changes and in teran nual changes of in term ed iate and d eep w ater te m p e ra tu re s w ith a w inter cooling index derived from air te m p e ra tu re observations. T he results suppo rt N a n se n ’s (1906) concep t o f the o v erturning of cooled surface w aters, neglecting any haline co m p o n en t in the system. In discussing the wind causing variability in the co n vective intensity we tak e up Jô n ss o n ’s (1991a) sugges tion: an analysis of wind-stress curl o ver the N ordic Seas by m eans of em pirical o rthog onal functions. Jönsson (1991b) shows significant decadal and interan n u al vari ations o f intensity and spatial scales. T he low er m odes, which com pare in scale to the G re e n la n d Sea, show in teran n u al variability w ith high energy in th e 1960s and early 1970s and low energy in the late 1970s an d 1980s. Figure 4 is a relevant p resen tatio n of this scale. T h e higher m odes com p are in scale with th e individual basins (Fig. 1), have little energy in the 1960s an d 1970s, and reach high levels in the 1980s. W ith respect to w ind-driven circulation and convec tion a one-gyre situation is favoured for the G reen lan d Sea because o f the dom inance o f the low er m od es in the "c3 CL / / //_ /// /// /// /// //// //// //// /// / //// //// //// //// //// // // // // // // //// PH n p—1/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / V / / / / / / / / / / / / / R/ // / / / V\ R // V\ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / FH / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / v\ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Y— FH / / / / / / PI / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 0 / / / / / / FH / / / / 7]/ / / / / / / / / 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 Figure 4. Interannua l variations o f wind stress curl o v er the G r e e n la n d Sea. T h e values are averages o v er an area o f 2 0 0 0 0 0 k m 2 in the central p a rt o f th e G r e e n la n d Sea an d o v e r a o n e-y ear perio d fro m s u m m e r o f y e a r - 1 to th e following su m m er. N o te the decrease in th e late 1970s an d 1980s. 1960s and early 1970s, with strong dom ing, u p p er layer divergence due to E k m a n pum ping and well developed Arctic and Polar fronts separating the convective regime from the Polar and A tlantic w aters. This situation pres ents favourable conditions for d eep reaching convec tion. D uring the 1980s, the low er m od e forcing was less intense and the potential fo r the generatio n of separate gyres in the G reen lan d and B oreas Basin was much larger, thus repeatedly interrupting the prevailing, but w eak en ed , one-gyre situation for certain periods. Q u ad fasel and M eincke (1987) indeed observed a two-gyre situation in 1986. This causes advective “leakages" of the frontal zones in the area of the gyre separation, bringing fresh P olar w aters into the surface layer and w arm A tlantic w ater into the in term ediate layers o f the central G reen lan d Sea. B oth effects are adverse to convection. A ag aard and C arm ack (1989) have shown this for excess fresh w ater input into the convective gyre and Figure 5 shows this for an intrusion of w arm A tlantic w ater. It occurred betw een A ugust 1986 and M arch 1987, restricting the convective d ep th in the G reen lan d Basin to 200 m because to o much h eat had to be rem oved by the convective cycles during one winter. This m akes decadal and in terannual changes in the wind field one of the likely causes of corresponding changes in convective d epths in the G reen lan d Sea quantitative pro o f has still to be evaluated. T u rn ing to th e rm oh alin e causes of convective vari ability, the convective processes in th e A rctic O cean and G reen lan d Sea, as described in section 2 above, imply net fluxes o f heat and salt as follows: in the A rctic O cean the dow nslope p e n e tratio n of high salinity shelf w ater at freezing te m p eratu res and the e n train m en t o f w arm A tlantic w aters p roduce a net d ow nw ard flux o f h e a t and salt for the A rctic Basins. In the G reen lan d Sea the e n train m en t of fresh w ater in haline plum es at freezing te m p e ra tu re s and th e p enetrative ch aracter o f the plum es in the interm ed iate w arm levels result in an upw ard flux o f h e a t and salt. T o co m p en sate for gains and losses in the interior o f the A rctic O cean/N ordic Seas system the two reservoirs have to couple by exchanges th rough the F ram Strait. Figure 6 is a schem a tic diagram of this concept. Since th e size o f the reser voirs is vastly different, th e forcing o f the fluxes differs and since non-linearities of the T S-relationships are involved (see Fig. 3) the coupled system will react with oscillations. N o tim e-series d a ta are available, but the description of the “ G re a t Salinity A n o m a ly ” by D ick son et al. (1988) hints th a t such coupling exists: the au tho rs have described an ano m alou s high freshw ater accum ulation in the area n orth of Iceland in the late 1960s. It was believed to have originated from an increased outflow o f fresh w ater from the A rctic O cean. This outflow, which A a g aard and C arm ack (1989) esti35 O* 10° E i < -1 5 DBAR - 500- 500- 1000- 1000- - I 0.5 0.5 1.1 2000- 2 00 0 - 0 (*C ) AUG. 1986 MAR. 1987 - 1.2 RV VALDIVIA RV VALDIVIA 3000- 3000- Figure 5. T e m p e r a tu r e distribution for s u m m e r 1986 (left) and w in ter 1987 (right) along 74°45'N startin g o ff at B e a r Island an d running d u e west across the central G re e n la n d Basin. N o te th e w arm intrusion in th e interval 200 to 500 m o b se rv ed in w inter. A R C T IC O C E A N Q,S G R E E N LA N D SEA Q,S oc AO - 1.2 GS - 1.3 1980 TIME FRAM STR A IT Figure 6. Schem atic r e p re se n ta tio n o f th e Arctic O cea n /N o rd ic Seas system as a two-basin system with different th erm o h alin e fluxes due to different processes for d e e p w a te r fo rm ation . F luctuations arc k n o w n only fo r the d e e p G r e e n la n d Sea. 36 STAND. DEV. DEGR. LONG 7881-90 r- 76- > H -I C D m 74- 72- 71-80 70-12 LONGITUDE Figure 7. E x te n t o f sea ice in the G r e e n la n d Sea. Solid lines: W in tertim e (Jan to M ar) location o f ice edge for th e p erio d s 1971— 1980 an d 1981—1990. D a ta sources: 1971-1980 Vinje (1984), 1981-1990 Jo in t Ice C e n te r. D as h e d line: S ta n d a rd dev iatio n as o b tain ed for the perio d 1981-1990. N o com patible estim ates were possible for th e 1970s. T h e cen tre for convection in the G r e e n la n d Sea is m a r k e d at 75°N, 04°W. m ated to rep resen t a 30% increase in th e m e an fresh w ater flux from the A rctic O cean , obviously did not im m ediately affect the favourable convective conditions in the G reen lan d Sea while passing en ro u te to the Iceland Sea. H ow ev er, while prop ag ating from the Ice land Sea a ro u n d the su bp olar gyre the freshw ater excess red u ced convection in the L a b ra d o r Sea in 1972 and, after returning to the G reen lan d Sea in 1981, convective conditions becam e less favourable. A similar event occurred at th e beginning of this century. W e believe th a t this is some indication o f the validity o f the m odel on the generations of variability in d eep w ater properties by th erm ohaline coupling of A rctic O cean/N o rd ic Seas reservoirs. T he third reason for the variability is m ore straight forw ard and relates to local th e rm ohaline forcing by seaice form ation. A s described in section 2, cycles of ice form ation and melting are the surface expression of convective activity in the G re e n la n d Sea. A ccording to Rudels (1990) these cycles occur on time scales of the o rd e r of several days and on spatial scales of the o rd e r of kilom etres. T h ere are no rou tin e d ata allowing direct observations of such cycles. Indirect indication can be ob tained from th e routine ice charts, which have a tim e resolution of the sam e o rd e r as can be expected for the ice cycles and a spatial resolution which is m uch larger. T h e m ost consistent p a ra m e te r in these charts o ver the p eriod 1970 to 1990 is the ice edge location. In Figures 7 and 8 the ice edge an d its variance are plotted for decadal and interann ual tim e scales. By assuming the centre o f convective activity to be at 75°N, 04°W (G S P -G ro u p , 1990), by fu rth er assuming that a significant portion of the ice observed in the central G re e n la n d Sea during w inter has b een locally form ed and by implying the observed variance in the central G reen lan d Sea to be significantly related to ice form ation/ice melting cycles, the figures can be dis cussed as follows: o n the decadal tim e scale (Fig. 7) there was m o re ice form ed during th e 1970s than during the 1980s. T aking the variance of the 1980s to hold also for the 1970s, then the centre o f convection was occasionally ice-free during the w inter periods of the 1970s, but ra th e r frequently during the 1980s. This result is consist ent with the observed convective activity described in section 3, if m ore ice and m ore occasional o p en w ater m ean m o re salt brine release into the system. O n the interan n u al time scale (Fig. 8) we find the central w inter m onths in 1988 and 1989 just as has been discussed above for the 1980s. In 1987, how ever, th ere was so m uch ice th a t the cen tre o f convection was p erm anently u n d e r an ice cover. This correspo nds well with Figure 5, w here th e h eat co nten t of a w arm in tru sion of A tlantic w ater at interm ediate d epth could n ot be released to the a tm osphere and consequently convective depths w ere limited to 200 m. Conclusions T he foregoing discussion has indicated relationships betw een decadal and interannual variations in the depth 37 E G -IC E BOUNDARY 80' MEAN M A X -M IN FE B 1987 MAR 1988 FEB 1989 702 0 'W 10 ' O' E 10' 0 200 400 600 km 800 Figure 8. M onthly m ean ice edge and its longitudinal variation (m ax im u m ex ten t m inus m in im u m e x ten t) for F e b r u a ry 1987, M arch 1988. an d F eb ru ary 1989. D a ta source: Jo in t Ice C e n te r. T h e c en tre fo r convection in th e G r e e n la n d Sea is m a r k e d at 75°N, 04° W. o f the w intertim e convection and changes in forcing by wind and th e rm o haline processes. O n e cann ot at pres ent get m uch fu rth e r along this route: the limitations on d a ta availability and d a ta consistency are one reason. W hereas limitations o n d a ta availability are obvious for the ocean o bservations, the d ata consistency problem concerns the longer term w ind and ice d ata for the spatial scale o f th e circulation in the G reen lan d Sea. T h ere have been significant changes in o b servation tech niques for sea ice and in m o d e l-suppo rted interpolation schem es for gridded m eteorological d ata within the last two decades. A second reason is the fact that wind and th e rm o haline forcing are not in d e p en d en t of each oth e r. C o nsequ en tly , progress in fu rth er u n d erstanding vari ability in G re e n la n d Sea convection is expected from mesoscale circulation modelling on the o ne h and and from co ntinuation of relevant observations in the G re e n la n d Sea , and hopefully in the F ram Strait and the A rctic O cean, on the oth er. A cknow ledgm ents This p a p e r is based on d ata exchange and discussions am ong m any colleagues w orking on the A rctic O cean/ N ordic Seas system, notably K. A a g a a rd , E . C arm ack , E. F ah rbach, D. Q uadfasel, and B. R udels. 38 References A a g a a rd , K. 1968. T e m p e ra tu r e variations in th e G r e e n la n d Sea d e e p w ater. D e e p -S e a R e s ., 15: 281-296. A a g a a rd , K ., an d C a rm a c k , E. C. 1989. T h e role o f sea ice and f resh w ater in the A rctic circulation. J. G eo p h y s. R e s.. 94: 14485-14498. 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