Generational Status and Mexican American Political Participation:The Benefits and Limitations of Assimilation Political Research Quarterly 64(1) 172–184 © 2011 University of Utah Reprints and permission: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/1065912909346738 http://prq.sagepub.com Wayne A. Santoro1 and Gary M. Segura2 Abstract The authors investigate self-reported voter turnout and ethnic political activity across four-plus generations of Mexican Americans. Using a 1999 national survey, multivariate results indicate that the likelihood of Mexican American voting increases largely in a monotonic manner across generations while participation in ethnic political activity begins to decline after having one parent born in the United States. These results raise the question of whether disadvantaged ethnic populations necessarily benefit politically from assimilating given that gains in voting that accrue across generations are accompanied by declines in ethnic political activity among later generations. Keywords Mexican American, political participation, generation, assimilation Immigrants and their descendents have an interest in participating politically in the United States because such activity helps them influence governments to address their needs (Dahl 1961; Lieberson 1980; Portes and Rumbaut 1996). Yet, few studies have examined how participation varies across generations beyond the second. Early work on mainly white ethnic voting was focused on party and policy preferences rather than turnout and joining political causes (Dahl 1961; Wilson and Banfield 1964; Wolfinger 1965). Likewise, political participation theories are not designed to explain changes across generation, and assimilation theories are seldom applied to political incorporation. In light of this lacuna, we put forth an approach to explain political participation by Mexican Americans across four-plus generations. We focus on Mexican Americans because they are the largest immigrant population in the United States, making up 30 percent of the foreign-born population in 2005, and because they have greater generational depth than any other Latino or Asian American population. Another advantage of studying Mexican Americans is that their political incorporation experiences may closely mirror those of turn-of-the-century immigrants (Portes and Rumbaut 1996), in part because Mexicans have been present in both immigration waves. Understanding the link between generation and political participation among Mexican Americans necessitates distinguishing between two types of political acts. The first is voting. Voting is the most frequent form of political activity for all Americans regardless of race or ethnicity. We believe voting will increase generally in a linear manner across generation, flattening as it reaches its ceiling. This expectation is grounded in the resource model and classic assimilation theory. The second type of political participation is involvement in ethnic political acts. Ethnic political acts are inspired specifically by concerns with advancing ethnic political causes, such as boycotting produce to support farm workers or campaigning for a political candidate because the candidate is of Mexican origin. Drawing upon diverse theoretical traditions, we think that generational status will be linked to ethnic political acts in a curvilinear manner: greater among the second or third generation than the first but declining among distant generations. Together, these predications view assimilation processes as both strengthening and weakening the political position of Mexican Americans in that gains in voting that accrue across generations should be accompanied by declines in ethnic political activity among later generations. We seek to make both theoretical and empirical contributions to the study of racial and ethnic politics. In light 1 University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA 2 Corresponding Author: Gary M. Segura, Stanford University, Department of Political Science, 616 Serra St., Encina Hall 100 West, Stanford, CA 94305, USA E-mail: [email protected] Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 173 Santoro and Segura of the criticism that the racial/ethnic politics’ field lacks broad theories, the theoretical framework we advance weaves together diverse and at times competing perspectives into a cohesive framework. We selectively incorporate aspects of classic and segmented assimilation theories, early work on white ethnic politics, resource and group-consciousness approaches, and sociological theories of protest participation. None of these approaches alone can account for all of the issues we address. Empirically, in contrast to the common assumption that ethnic political incorporation is enhanced necessarily for later generations, we are in the unique position to assess this claim across two key expressions of ethnic power. Given our focus on Mexican Americans, we recognize that smaller Latino and Asian American populations may follow divergent paths. Our work is not meant to obscure these alternative generational patterns. Rather, we believe our findings will sensitize researchers to explore how participation may vary for smaller populations that have uncommon assimilation experiences across the criteria we highlight. Voting and Ethnic Political Activity We begin by clarifying the conceptual differences between voting and ethnic political acts. Voting and ethnic political activity are neither polar opposites nor mutually exclusive. Rather, both are separated only in the degree to which they can be characterized by the following three dimensions. First, ethnic political activity is more likely than voting to be directed specifically and exclusively toward improving the status of the ethnic population. In other words, ethnic political activity is inherently group-centered while voting is only sometimes group-centered. Ethnic political activity, for instance, would include involvement in Mexican American political organizations, attending a demonstration on a Mexican American specific cause, and working for a Mexican American political candidate. All of these actions have helped Mexican Americans exert their political preferences into policy-making decisions (García and Arce 1988; Hero 1992; Santoro 1999). This is not to say that voting is devoid of ethnic dimensions. Voting can at times represent an ethnic political act, most clearly seen with Mexican American support for La Raza Unida Party in the early 1970s. Moreover, de la Garza and DeSipio (1997) found that nearly three-quarters of Mexican Americans prefer to vote for a Mexican American rather than a non-Hispanic white (henceforth white) candidate, suggesting that many recognize the political benefits of having a coethnic in power. But voting is not exclusively directed toward the betterment of ethnic causes, as is evident by the support of about one-quarter of Latinos in California for anti-immigrant and anti–affirmative action initiatives (Pantoja and Segura 2003). Second, ethnic identity and social ties to an ethnic community play a stronger role in mobilizing Mexican Americans for ethnic political activity than for voting. It is difficult to mobilize the Mexican-origin community toward ethnic political goals without knowledge of, concern with, and an ability to draw upon Mexican culture (Padilla 1986; Ferriss and Sandoval 1997; Pardo 1998; Wong 2006). The Brown Berets, for instance, did this explicitly when they required that prospective recruits pass a written and oral exam on Chicano/Mexican history (Marin 1991). Likewise, César Chávez went to great lengths to infuse Mexican culture in his efforts to recruit mainly first-generation Mexican farm workers (Ferriss and Sandoval 1997). For instance, he drew upon Mexican revolutionary heroes such as Emiliano Zapata during protest meetings, and he infused Mexican Catholic traditions into the movement, such as conceptualizing the famous Delano to Sacramento march as a perigrinación (pilgrimage) and having protesters march behind portraits of the Virgin of Guadalupe. More recently, Padilla’s (1986) study of Mexican and Puerto Rican mobilization in Chicago, Pardo’s (1998) work on Chicana activism in Los Angeles, and Wong’s (2006) research on Mexican immigrant mobilization in New York and Los Angeles underscore the importance of ethnic social networks, ethnic identities and cultural traditions, and ethnically based organizations in promoting political action. Certainly, ethnic identity can facilitate voter mobilization as well. For instance, about one-quarter of Mexican Americans report that they would be more likely to vote when a coethnic runs for office (de la Garza and DeSipio 1997). But given that it is not inherently an ethnic act, we are not surprised that studies that have assessed the impact of ethnic consciousness on voting among Mexican Americans typically uncover little connection (García and Arce 1988; Leighley and Vedlitz 1999; Shaw, de la Garza, and Lee 2000). Third, engaging in ethnic political acts is more risky than voting. The political causes engaged in by Mexican Americans are almost always unpopular among whites and have been resisted, at times with force and violence, by opponents, law enforcement, and the U.S. government.1 Among the more well-known historical examples would be white growers’ spraying picketing farm workers in California with pesticides, FBI surveillance of the Crusade for Justice in Denver, police bombings of the headquarters of the Alianza movement in northern New Mexico, and unwarranted police arrests of the leader of the Brown Berets in Los Angeles (Ferriss and Sandoval 1997; Rosales 1997; Marin 1991). In the 1980s and 1990s, the mobilization of Chicanos in California for Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 174 Political Research Quarterly 64(1) affirmative action and bilingual education programs, demonstrations in opposition to English-only laws and anti-immigrant proposals, and strikes by janitors in downtown Los Angeles have demonstrated the outspoken backlash of whites to Chicano political claims (Muñoz 1989; Gómez-Quiñones 1990; Rosales 1997; Santoro 1999). As recently as 2007, the Los Angeles police department admitted fault when officers dispersed a largely peaceful immigrant rights protest, firing nearly 150 nonlethal munitions into the crowd and beating peaceful protesters and media members with batons, causing 246 injuries. This is not to say that voting is risk free. In the mid-1990s, one candidate for the California State Assembly stationed armed guards dressed to look like sheriff’s deputies in polling places in hopes of driving down Latino turnout. The Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund reports in 2004 that police officers were stationed at polling stations in at least three Mexican American neighborhoods in San Antonio and voters were warned that they would go to jail if they had an outstanding warrant (Perales, Figueroa, and Rivas 2006). Nonetheless, when we compare the many risks associated with ethnic mobilization to the far more regularized process of voting, the latter on average is the less risky undertaking. Generational Status and Political Participation Voting. Research on the political participation of Latinos is relatively recent and decidedly tilted toward the explanation of voter turnout. Voting studies typically examine nativity (foreign-born vs. U.S.-born) and only occasionally generation (García and Arce 1988). We think that generational status will have a linear impact on voting across the first three or four generations because aspects of assimilation that facilitate voting tend to increase in the aggregate across the first three or four generations. Of course, voting propensity cannot increase indefinitely. We base our linear prediction across generations until a voting “ceiling” is reached, which in the United States seems to be somewhere around a 70 to 80 percent self-report voting rate. After this ceiling is reached, we expect the trend in voting rates will flatten for later generations but, as we shall see, not decline. Three findings from studies on turnout and the assimilation experiences of Mexican Americans support this expectation. First, resources and civic orientations enhance voting among Mexican Americans (García and Arce 1988; Verba et al. 1993; Lien 1994; DeSipio 1996; de la Garza and DeSipio 1997; García 1997; Leighley and Vedlitz 1999; Shaw, de la Garza, and Lee 2000). Resources and related civic orientations pertinent to voting, in turn, tend to increase in the aggregate across generations. Across the first three generations of Mexican Americans, for instance, there appears to be an increase in education, occupational status, per capita income, home ownership, and organizational involvement (Neidert and Farley 1985; Keefe and Padilla 1987; García and Arce 1988; Jensen and Chitose 1994; but see Livingston and Kahn 2002). Associated with this resource acquisition, there is also a corresponding increase in psychological orientations toward voting (Cain, Kiewiet, and Uhlander 1991; Portes and Rumbaut 1996; Jones-Correa 1998). Second, Mexican Americans who are Spanish- language dominant have lower levels of politicization than English-language-dominant individuals (Uhlaner, Cain, and Kiewiet 1989; DeSipio 1996; Tam Cho 1999). Verba et al. (1993), for instance, documented that Englishlanguage skills among Latino citizens were positively associated with an index of political actions, such as making campaign contributions, contacting government officials, and membership in a voluntary organization that took a stand on a political issue. In light of these findings, generational status should have a positive effect on voting because English-language dominance among Mexican Americans increases quickly across the first three generations (Keefe and Padilla 1987; Portes and Rumbaut 1996). Third, immigrants tend to vote less often and are less politically active in general than second-generation coethnics (García and de la Garza 1985; DeSipio 1996; Portes and Rumbaut 1996; García 1997; Jones-Correa 1998; Leighley and Vedlitz 1999; Tam Cho 1999).2 In part this may be due to the reluctance of political parties to target immigrant communities for mobilization campaigns (Wong 2006). Additionally, Mexican immigrants tend to have fewer resources and less English proficiency than their offspring, and they may have cultural traits that hamper voting such as lack of familiarity with the U.S. political system, the belief in someday returning to the homeland, or a legacy of disheartening political experiences in the country of origin. Lien (1994), for example, found that Mexican Americans who send money back to Mexico, keep in touch with family and friends in Mexico, and have considered going back to Mexico—cultural factors strongly associated with immigrant status—were less likely to be politically active than respondents without such ethnic ties. While these studies leave unclear the experiences of generations beyond the second, it does support the belief of an initial positive relationship between voting and generation. Our perspective that the link between generation and voting is principally driven by resource acquisition and related civic orientations draws upon two theoretical traditions: the resource model and classic assimilation theory. The central claim of the resource or socioeconomic Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 175 Santoro and Segura status model is that resources like education, income, organizational involvement, and language skills facilitate political participation (Verba et al. 1993; Brady, Verba, and Schlozman 1995; Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980). Resources mobilize because they heighten political information and interest, personal and political efficacy, organization and communication skills, exposure to political recruitment and political messages, and a sense of civic duty. Building upon Gordon (1964), classic or “new” assimilation theory sees assimilation occurring across generations in a roughly linear manner (Gans 1992; Barkan 1995; Alba and Nee 1997). Generation is associated with the adoption of U.S. cultural practices (acculturation), such as English-language usage, political interest, and political information. More distant generations are also thought to structurally assimilate into a middle-class existence, such as living in nonethnic white neighborhoods, increasing rates of racial/ethnic intermarriage, and having middle-class incomes. While virtually ignored in assimilation research, presumably this acculturation and structural assimilation includes electoral participation as well. Ethnic political activity. There is surprisingly little research on ethnic political activity that is more than descriptive (but see García 1997), and no studies to our knowledge have examined its link to generational status. For our expected curvilinear relationship to hold true, the second or third generation should participate more in ethnic political actions than the first generation. This scenario seems plausible in two regards. First, some degree of resources is needed to engage in almost any political action, including political activity other than voting. As reviewed above, second- and third-generation Mexican Americans do indeed have higher incomes, levels of education, occupational prestige, and organizational involvement than foreign-born coethnics. These types of resources, in turn, make Latino participation in ethnic political activities more likely (García 1997). Relatedly, second- and third-generation Latinos tend to have higher levels of political efficacy, political information, and interest in U.S. politics than the first generation (Cain, Kiewiet, and Uhlander 1991; Portes and Rumbaut 1996; Jones-Correa 1998; but see Pantoja and Segura 2003), and such factors should enhance ethnic political activity. Second, greater exposure to U.S. society can increase ethnic awareness and support for ethnic institutions and behaviors (Portes 1984; Portes and Bach 1985; Portes and Rumbaut 1996; Umaña-Taylor and Fine 2006). One way to conceptualize ethnic awareness is to measure experiences with racism given that encounters with discrimination enhance ethnic awareness (Dahl 1961; Lieberson 1980; Portes 1984). Among mainly Mexican Americans in California, Cain, Kiewiet, and Uhlander (1991) found that second- and third-generation indi viduals reported more discrimination experiences than immigrants (see also Portes and Bach 1985; de la Garza et al. 1992).3 These findings suggest that ethnicity among some immigrants may be a less salient aspect of identity until exposed to white hostility and therefore cannot serve as a basis of ethnic-based mobilization. Experiences with discrimination, in turn, enhance directly and indirectly Mexican American political participation (Lien 1994). Moreover, most second- and third-generation Mexican Americans still have strong social ties to other Mexican Americans (Keefe and Padilla 1987). Given the importance of ethnic social ties and a politicized ethnic identity in the mobilization of ethnically based political activity (Dahl 1961; Wolfinger 1965; Padilla 1986; Marin 1991; Pardo 1998), it follows that secondand perhaps third-generation individuals will be more likely to participate in ethnic political activity than firstgeneration individuals. The role we assign to ethnic social ties and a politicized ethnic identity to explain ethnic political activity across the first two or three generations is grounded in a number of traditions. It is consistent with early work on white ethnic politics, which recognized the role that ethnicity played in partisan preferences (Dahl 1961), especially work by Wolfinger (1965), who noted that ethnic political participation could increase across generations. It also draws upon segmented assimilation theory, a perspective rooted in trying to explain the adaptation patterns of Latino and Asian immigrants who came to the United States in large numbers since the midsixties (Portes 1984; Portes and Zhou 1993; Portes and Rumbaut 1996). Like the model we propose, segmented assimilation theory argues that a politicized ethnic identity may be enhanced for the second generation and, thus, correspond to greater involvement in ethnic centered behavior, rather than being gradually eroded across succeeding generations. Highlighting ethnic identity and ethnic social ties is also grounded in contemporary sociological perspectives on social movement participation (McAdam, McCarthy, and Zald 1996; Benford and Snow 2000; Polletta and Jasper 2001). This body of work sees recruitment into activism on behalf of group-centered goals as occurring via social networks of people who share common identities and grievances as well as the necessary resources for protest mobilization. Related to this work is the group consciousness approach which notes that a politicized identity can heighten political participation for resource-poor minorities (Miller et al. 1981; Uhlaner, Cain, and Kiewiet 1989; Lien 1994). A curvilinear pattern assumes that—unlike voting—at some point generations beyond the second or third must Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 176 Political Research Quarterly 64(1) exhibit declining probabilities of ethnic political participation.4 We think it will because ties to an ethnic population and culture at the group level tend to diminish, albeit unevenly and incompletely, among distant generations (Dahl 1961; Gordon 1964; Alba and Chamlin 1983; Keefe and Padilla 1987). Keefe and Padilla (1987), for example, observed sharp declines in Mexican cultural awareness across four generations in Southern California. Individuals with low cultural awareness knew little of Mexican culture or the Spanish language, and they were more likely to have grown up with whites and to currently have white friends and neighbors. Compared to earlier generations, moreover, fourth-generation individuals were less likely to prefer being with others of Mexican decent, had less pride in being of Mexican heritage, and were less likely to perceive discrimination against Mexicans in the United States. Likewise, García and Arce (1988) found that a sense of ethnic community, such as the willingness to support coethnic businesses and to pressure employers to hire people of Mexican descent, declined in salience across distant generations of Mexican Americans (see also Cain, Kiewiet, and Uhlander 1991; Perez and Padilla 2000; Umaña-Taylor and Fine 2006). Given the importance of these factors to participation in ethnic causes, people more generationally distant from Mexico should be less likely to engage in ethnic political activity because their ties to an ethnic culture and community are likely too tenuous. Our belief for the decline in ethnic political activity for distant generations is grounded in classic assimilation theory, which sees the inevitable loss of ethnic cultural practices. It is also in line with Dahl’s (1961) research on ethnic politics in New Haven. Dahl argued that mainly white ethnic populations like Italians and the Irish moved through a three-stage political-assimilation model that predicted the long-run decline in the political salience of ethnicity. Indeed, Gimpel and Tam Cho (2004) analyzed recent voting patterns in New England states and found that while ethnicity had not disappeared in relevance, it was less associated with partisanship than it had been in the past. Data Data come from the 1999 National Survey of Latinos conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation, the Washington Post, and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. The survey is a nationally representative sample of self-identified Latinos who were interviewed by telephone in their choice of English or Spanish. We confine our analysis to Mexican Americans for three reasons. First, Mexican Americans are the largest immigrant population in the United States and have considerable generational depth. Second and relatedly, because Mexicans are the largest of the Latino subpopulations in the United States (making up 60 percent of all Latinos), the survey we use contains a large enough sample of Mexican Americans to make possible statistical tests across multiple generations. In contrast, the next two largest subsamples (Puerto Ricans and Cubans) are nearly three times smaller, leaving only 15 Puerto Rican and 3 Cuban respondents (compared to 112 Mexicans) in the highest generational category we use. Finally, and most important, we do not combine the various Latino nationalorigin populations given important heterogeneity of Latinos across national-origin groups. Principally, the inclusion of Cubans—who are legally political refugees who enjoy a somewhat more welcoming immigration regime—and Puerto Ricans, who are U.S. citizens by birth, would fundamentally alter the political dynamics we wish to observe. In the models predicting voting, we limit our inquiry to U.S. citizens because only citizens are eligible to vote. Because our goal is to compare the predictors of voting to ethnic political activity, we also exclude noncitizens from the ethnic political activity model so that the sample remains constant. The drawback to this approach is that noncitizen Mexicans can and do engage in political activity. Because of this, we show an additional model predicting ethnic political activity that includes noncitizens. Our final sample size is 433 for models excluding noncitizens and 743 for models including noncitizens. Dependent Variables We measured voting by coding respondents who reported having voted in the 1996 general election as 1, coding them as 0 otherwise. Self-reported vote is customarily a problematic estimate of participation. Because of this, the survey employed a prompt as part of the question that Belli et al. (1999) have demonstrated serves to reduce overreporting.5 In our sample, fully 46 percent of citizen respondents admitted not voting, raising our confidence in the accuracy of the measure. While a 54 percent selfreported vote is undoubtedly inflated, it is not as far off as we might otherwise expect. Actual Latino turnout among citizens is estimated between 44 and 48 percent for 1992 (DeSipio 1996) and 1996, suggesting an overreporting rate of between 6 to 10 percentage points. We measured ethnic political activity with an index of the respondent’s self-reported involvement in three political activities: working for a Latino candidate or cause, attending a demonstration or public meeting on Latino concerns, and/or contributing to a Latino organization or campaign. This variable ranges from 0 to 3, with a 3 indicating participation in all three ethnic political activities Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 177 Santoro and Segura queried. Many respondents engaged in at least one activity, with more than 33 percent of all respondents and more than 40 percent of citizens scoring 1 or greater. Overall, however, levels of ethnic political activity are low. The mean of ethnic political acts is only 0.50 in the full sample and 0.63 in the citizen-only sample. It is important to note that these reports of nonelectoral political action, too, may suffer from an overreporting bias, but we suspect it is much smaller since they do not command the social desirability that accompanies voter turnout. Independent Variables Generation represents the number of generations the respondent or his or her family have been in the States. Immigrants were coded 1, those in the first U.S.-born generation were coded 2, respondents with one immigrant parent and one U.S.-born parent were coded 2.5 (this level of distinction is not possible beyond the second generation), respondents whose parents were both U.S.-born but not their grandparents were coded 3, and all others were coded 4 (since the survey does not permit distinctions beyond this point).6 A distinguishing feature of this data set is that we can separate the third from the fourth-plus generation. This level of precision is unique. Because theories of assimilation rest on observations made by comparing generations, it is essential to investigate as many generations as possible. We include a generation-squared term and retain it in models where it reached statistical significance. An alternative to the quadratic approach is to use dummy variables for each generation. To foreshadow our findings, replacing this continuous variable and its square with a series of dummy variables has no effect on the results and their interpretation. What exactly does generation capture? While it serves as a proxy for a whole host of cross-time assimilative effects, we think its relevance to political participation stems from its association with two basic factors. First, generation is related to the acquisition of a wide variety of resources beyond those we can measure, such as occupational standing, home ownership, and organizational membership. Relatedly, it is associated with the politically relevant job skills, exposure to political stimuli, political knowledge and interest, and personal and political efficacy that those resources enhance. Second, generation is associated with ethnic identity and ties to an ethnic community, such as awareness of Mexican culture, preferences for being with others of Mexican decent, social ties to whites, rates of intermarriage, geographic desegregation, and pride in being of Mexican heritage.7 We include four measures of ethnic identity and culture. Maintain culture measures the degree to which respondents believe immigrants should attempt to maintain their ethnic identity and culture. Responses were coded 0 (not at all important), 1 (not too important), 2 (somewhat important), and 3 (very important). Perceive discrimination measures whether respondents believe they, a family member, or a close friend recently experienced discrimination because of their ethnicity in the United States and is a dichotomy (1 = yes; 0 = no). Spanish usage captures the respondent’s use of Spanish during the interview. Responses were coded 0 (only English), 1 (more English than Spanish), 2 (both equally), 3 (more Spanish than English), and 4 (only Spanish). Spanish usage can be thought of as a behavioral measure of ethnic identity or as a measure of ethnic culture. Latinos cooperating measures the respondent’s perception of whether Latinos are currently working together to achieve collective goals and is a dichotomy (1 = yes; 0 = no). This measure is less than ideal given its pan-ethnic orientation but is included as it draws upon Dawson’s (1994) claim that a sense of linked fate acts as a strategic resource for minority mobilization. Last, all models control for income, education, age, gender, and the selfreported level of political interest. Analysis and Results We used these eleven indicators in separate models for the two dependent variables. We employ a logit estimation technique for the voting model because the dependent variable is dichotomous. The results are reported in Table 1. We employ ordered logit for the ethnic political activity models given the measures limited number of discrete possible values.8 These results are reported in Table 2. For both dependent variables, the first column under each model represents parameter estimates and standard errors, while the second column (labeled DPr [Y = 1], Min to Max) reports changes in predicted probabilities given a minimum to maximum change in each predictor, holding all others constant at their means. Voting. Model 1 of Table 1 predicts the likelihood of self-reported voting. It accurately predicts 79.7 percent of the cases and the proportional reduction of error (using Tau-c) is a healthy .556. Model 1 shows that generation appears positively associated with participation, though it fails to reach the conventional level of significance. The generation-squared term, however, is clearly not significant, meaning that the increase in self-reported turnout across generations does not appear to be followed by a subsequent decrease. Since the direct measure of generational status and its square are so highly correlated and preliminary results suggest a linear relationship, we replicated the analysis from model 1, this time dropping the squared term and reestimating the equation assuming Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 178 Political Research Quarterly 64(1) Table 1. Logit Estimations of the Effects of Generation and Select Variables on Self-Reported Voting Model 1: Voting Coefficient (SE) Model 2: Voting DPr(Y = 1), min to max Coefficient (SE) DPr(Y = 1), min to max Generation .975 (.697) .604 .372*** (.127) .263 Generation Generation-squared –.116 (.132) –.407 — — Ethnic identity and culture Maintain culture .099 (.189) .073 .089 (.188) .065 Perceive discrimination .101 (.259) .025 .118 (.258) .029 Latinos cooperating –.037 (.261) –.009 –.020 (.260) –.005 Spanish usage –.184** (.094) –.180 –.202** (.091) –.198 Socioeconomic status .319**** (.081) .420 .310**** (.080) .410 Income Education .415**** (.093) .538 .430*** (.092) .553 Political interest .469*** (.167) .334 .454*** (.166) .324 Political interest Demographics Age .091**** (.013) .762 .091**** (.012) .761 Gender (female = 1) .357 (.257) .086 .345 (.256) .083 Constant –7.468**** (1.224) –6.777**** (0.922) Log-likelihood –194.347 –194.738 Chi-squared 208.41**** 207.62**** % correctly predicted 79.7 79.7 Proportional reduction .556 .556 of error (Tau-c) N 433 433 **p ≤ .05. ***p ≤ .01. ****p ≤ .001. a linear relationship. The results are reported in model 2. The two equations for voting are virtually identical in all other respects. Here, the significance of generation is clear and unambiguous: within the first four-plus generations of living in the United States, the probability of reporting electoral participation goes up with each succeeding generation, ceteris paribus. A graphic representation of this effect is depicted in Figure 1. Figure 1 reports distributions of predicted probabilities for each dependent variable by generation. The figure is a box-plot that illustrates both the median predicted probability and the interquartile range associated with a “yes” response to having voted in the 1996 national election. Figure 1 shows that the predicted probability of self-reported vote grows linearly across the first three values for the generation variable and flattens after reaching roughly an 80 percent voting turnout rate as we anticipated it must. While these percentages are inflated by overreporting, we think this increase in the propensity to vote means that across generations, Mexican Americans are more likely to be assimilated along politically relevant dimensions. Regarding our measures of ethnic identity/culture, a preference for cultural maintenance, perceptions of Latino cooperation, and an awareness of discrimination against Mexican Americans are all unrelated to voting. Moreover, the use of Spanish lowers the probability of self-reported turnout by about 18 percent. Consistent with previous work, we think these findings underscore our claim that voting does not draw upon ethnic culture as a mobilization device and thus is not heightened by markers of ethnic identity. However, we acknowledge that the presence of a Mexican American running for office or the presence of an anti-Latino ballot initiative may convert voting for some into an act of ethnic expression. Ethnic political activity. The results for ethnic political activity are reported in models 3 and 4 in Table 2. Model 3 uses the same sample as the previous models, while model 4 includes noncitizens. We focus our attention on model 3 because it has the same sample as the previous voting models. Importantly, the results from model 4 do not substantively differ from model 3. Our expectation regarding generational status and ethnic political activity is confirmed. The direct effect of generation is initially positive, but curvilinear in nature, declining for higher values of generation. A graphic representation of this effect also is depicted in Figure 1. For ethnic political activity, the points represent the summed probabilities that the total actions were one, two, or three. Figure 1 Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 179 Santoro and Segura Table 2. Ordered Logit Estimates of the Effects of Generation and Select Variables on Engaging in Ethnic Political Activity Model 3: Ethnic political activity (citizens) Coefficient (SE) DPr(Y = 1), min to max Model 4: Ethnic political activity (all respondents) Coefficient (SE) DPr(Y = 1), min to max Generation 1.155** (0.542) .693 1.517**** (0.476) Generation Generation-squared –0.211** (0.102) –.609 –0.271*** (0.092) Ethnic identity and culture Maintain culture 0.404*** (0.154) .253 0.332*** (0.122) Perceive discrimination 0.492** (0.202) .118 0.549**** (0.162) Latinos cooperating 0.375* (0.204) .089 0.332** (0.168) Spanish usage 0.133* (0.075) .129 0.135** (0.062) Socioeconomic status 0.008 (0.060) .011 0.042 (0.052) Income Education 0.192*** (0.072) .270 0.213**** (0.055) Political interest Political interest 0.678**** (0.138) .437 0.575**** (0.103) Demographics Age 0.010 (0.008) .137 0.012* (0.007) Gender (female = 1) –0.015 (0.201) –.004 –0.186 (0.162) Ancillary parameters Cut 1 5.433 (0.939) 5.691 (0.743) Cut 2 6.713 (0.960) 7.046 (0.762) Cut 3 8.223 (0.992) 8.668 (0.793) Log-likelihood –427.601 –641.129 Chi-squared 72.22**** 124.24**** N 433 743 .808 –.525 .185 .120 .071 .116 .056 .284 .354 .156 –.040 *p ≤ .075. **p ≤ .05. ***p ≤ .01. ****p ≤ .001. Figure 1. Predicted probabilities of self-reported vote and ethnic political activity (≥1) by generation Box-plots display the interquartile range of the predicted probabilities, with the lines representing the median response. shows the median probability that the respondent engaged in any ethnic political action, as well as the interquartile range. Figure 1 reveals that probability of at least some ethnic political activity increases across roughly the first three generations but then decreases subsequently. Mexican Americans who are fourth generation or higher are less likely to participate in ethnically centered political activities than those from the second generation. If we take the first derivative of the quadratic curve as estimated, we find the actual peak (where the slope of the first derivative DY/DX = 0) at approximately 2.74, suggesting that once we move past one parent being U.S.-born, the effect of increasing generations is to decrease participation in ethnic politics. (In model 4, the peak value of generation shifts slightly to 2.80.) We suspect that the drop-off in participation in ethnic political activity among later generations (especially the fourth-plus) takes place because such individuals have on average a weaker ethnic identity, greater separation from ethnic social networks, fewer affiliations with ethnic-based organizations, and less exposure to targeted mobilization efforts. Figure 1 makes clear two other observations. First, for every value of generation, the predicted rate of voting exceeds that of any amount of ethnic political activity. This finding is consistent with the expectation that the act of voting is more likely than more risky forms of participation. Second, the gap between participation in elections and ethnic political activity widens for later generations. For instance, among the second generation, there is less than a 7 percent gap between voting and engaging in any Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 180 Political Research Quarterly 64(1) form of ethnic political activity. But by the fourth-plus generation, the gap has widened to about 28 percent. These observed differences in participation in voting and political activity that is ethnically centered demonstrate, we think, precisely the trade-off we envisioned at the start of this inquiry. Consistent with our belief that participation in ethnic causes mobilizes around ethnic culture and identity, model 3 shows that all four measures of ethnic identity/ culture are significant and in the predicted direction. Moving from the least to greatest degree of Spanish- language usage raises the probability of engaging in some form of ethnic political action by about 13 percent. Moreover, a preference for cultural maintenance, perceptions of Latino cooperation, and awareness of anti-Mexican discrimination are each associated with a stronger likelihood of participation in ethnic-specific political activities. These measures significantly raise the probability of joining an ethnic political action, from about 9 percent for the perception of Latino cooperation to more than 25 percent for the desire to maintain cultural identity. These relationships tend to strengthen with the inclusion of noncitizens into the analysis (model 4), though the sizes of the effects are occasionally slightly more modest. Alternative modeling strategy. An alternative approach to the use of a quadratic term to distinguish patterns in voting from ethnic political activity would be to substitute generation dummy variables for both the generation and generation-squared measures, with the first generation (foreign-born) serving as the reference category. Doing so has no effect on the substantive nature of our findings. Specifically, there is a generalized increase in predicted probabilities for voting across generation (meaning the coefficient for each successive generation is larger and significantly different from the baseline), leveling out only in the last generation as we anticipated it must since voting levels cannot logically increase forever. Meanwhile, ethnic activity peaks and then declines significantly in the last generation, meaning that the coefficients on generation dummies increase, but for the fourth-plus generation declines dramatically and is no longer significantly different from the baseline. (Figures showing predicted probabilities and values using this dummy variable approach are available at http://prq .sagepub.com/supplemental/.) Discussion and Conclusion One perspective of how immigrant populations are politically incorporated views the United States as open to those who have the desire, skills, and resources to enter it. Acquiring these traits is thus largely a question of adopting mainstream cultural practices and beliefs as well as assimilating into majority group society. Well known to classic assimilation theory and advocated for years by pro-assimilation organizations like the League of United Latin American Citizens, this linear approach can be tested by examining the impact of generational status on turnout since generation serves as a proxy for a whole host of cross-time assimilative effects. With the sufficient passage of generations, the turnout propensities of the descendents of immigrants should become indistinguishable from whites. At least for voting, this indeed seems to be the case. We find that the likelihood of voting among Mexican American citizens increases monotonically from the first generation until it hits a voting ceiling by the third generation and then subsequently flattens out at a high turnout rate. Yet, voting need not be the best path to political inclusion. Mexican American political influence has been expressed at times through mobilization around clearly ethnic causes, most recently seen with the massive 2006 “Day without Immigrants” protest events. In contrast to voting, generational status has a curvilinear effect on participation in ethnic-specific political activity: once we move past one parent being U.S.-born, the effect of increasing generations is to decrease participation in ethnic political activity. Our explanation of this second pattern rests on the belief that participating in ethnic political acts relies on having a politicized ethnic identity and being socially connected to other Mexican Americans. Indeed, across such diverse measures as Spanish-language usage, experiences with discrimination, and the importance placed on maintaining one’s ethnic culture, we find that ethnic identity and culture consistently serve as a mobilization device for ethnic political activity. Our results raise important questions about the net political effect of assimilation for largely immigrant and disadvantaged populations. Assimilation certainly offers benefits. This is most clearly seen with the increase in voting across generations. Mexican American voting can play a decisive role in determining who is elected to local or state office, can make white politicians more responsive to Mexican American concerns, and can increase Mexican American political representation—individuals who tend to be strong advocates of legislation beneficial to the Mexican American community. Our models also show strong potential for future Mexican American mobilization around ethnic causes given that demographers observe that most Mexican Americans under eighteen currently are either second or third generation. But assimilation also presents limitations. This is evident with the decline in ethnic political participation among distant generations. Moreover, the purported benefits of voting can be questioned. For instance, individuals with the highest voting rate are also individuals who most Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 181 Santoro and Segura likely are least identified and connected to the Mexican American community, suggesting that their voting choices may more closely mirror those of whites than coethnics. Similarly, given that Mexican Americans make up less than 7 percent of the national electorate in 2008 makes one question voting as a mechanism to bring about meaningful social change. When comparing the strengths and limitations of assimilation, we cannot say for sure what the net effect of this political trade-off is. Perhaps that evaluation depends on the specific aspect of politics or policy one chooses to study. What we can say is that the belief that assimilation always serves the goal of enhancing the political influence of an ethnic group is deeply problematic. It is interesting to note that our argument concerning the eventual decay in a politicized identity among Mexican Americans does not seem to characterize African Americans. Why this difference? We think the answer lies in the fact that the structural bases of a politicized identity remain for African Americans across generations but partly erode across generations for Mexican Americans. We see a politicized identity as driven largely by the related processes of rejection from majority group society and social ties to a coethnic/racial community. Barriers between whites and African Americans remain persistent and rigid, but they diminish and become more porous for later generations of Mexican Americans. For instance, not only is residential segregation from whites substantially lower for Latinos than for blacks, but levels of segregation further diminish across generations for Mexican Americans (Alba and Nee 1997; Charles 2003). Similarly, white intermarriage rates are much higher for Mexican Americans than African Americans, and intermarriage rates substantially increase across the first three generations of Latinos (Fu 2001; Stevens, McKillip, and Ishizawa 2006). These processes of integration with whites residentially and by marriage suggest one reason for the erosion of a politicized identity among Mexican Americans of distant generations. It is difficult, in other words, to maintain a racial/ethnic identity for individuals who are severed physically and socially from their racial or ethnic population. An alternative possibility is that the unique historical experiences of African Americans as slaves rather than immigrants, whose arrival on these shores resulted from the commercial calculations of whites accompanied by brute force, serve as a transhistorical cementing of African American identity to a degree not realized by voluntary immigrant groups no matter how marginalized. Either way, it is clear that our observed process of erosion among Mexican Americans is not comparable to the black experience. It is important to extend the current line of research to other populations. We agree with segmented assimilation theory that no one generational pattern of voting or ethnic political activity will likely characterize all immigrant populations. This is because of the enormous differences in the background characteristics of immigrants, their different contexts of reception, and the various possibilities of return migration. For instance, we would not expect the pattern that we uncover for ethnic political acts to characterize contemporary white immigrants and their descendants, the largest numbers of whom come from Canada and Germany, given that these populations do not experience the structural reasons for ethnic identity maintenance. Thus, our theoretical approach is most likely to be helpful in understanding political assimilation patterns of people from Asia and other Latin American countries—populations that make up nearly 80 percent of the total U.S. foreign-born population. We also think even future generations of Mexican Americans may experience different paths to political incorporation. For instance, the contemporary politically hostile climate, as indicated by the 244 state anti-immigration laws enacted in 2007 alone (Pew Hispanic Center 2007), seems to be mobilizing first-generation Mexican Americans in historically unique ways. Two of our findings, nonetheless, strike us as being relatively generalizable to the majority of contemporary immigrant/ethnic populations. First, we think that more distant generations (third, fourth) will outvote first- generation coethnics. Though there is some evidence that naturalized citizens can turn out in high numbers when politically threatened, naturalized citizens almost never outvote U.S. coethnics, and no study to our knowledge has found that naturalized citizens outvote third- and fourth-generation coethnics. Second, distant generations should engage in fewer ethnic political acts than early generations because ties to an ethnic community and culture seem to inevitably decline for later generations. That is, while it is well documented that some fourthgeneration individuals can retain a meaningful ethnic identity, some of their coethnics invariably do not. Ultimately, then, we think that most descendents of immigrants will end up voting but less often participate in political acts that are expressly ethnic. We have less confidence, however, that comparisons specifically between first- and second-generation coethnics from other populations will produce the same pattern we observed. For instance, Cubans seem to illustrate a case where the first generation (as least pre-Mariel) engaged in more ethnic political acts than the second generation. This suggests that the degree to which politics rather than economics drove migration and naturalization decisions is an important factor motivating decisions to politically participate. Clearly, much work in this area needs to be done. The demographic inevitability of the Downloaded from prq.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on May 13, 2016 182 Political Research Quarterly 64(1) United States becoming a majority-minority country necessitates that the study of ethnic and racial politics will become increasingly central to political science. In fact, future generations of scholars may define the study of Latinos, blacks, and Asian Americans as the core of political participation research, while research on whites will be reserved for less prestigious “specialty” journals. We hope our theoretical framework is useful to studies on ethnic and racial politics and that our findings provide a baseline to help identify patterns of incorporation as well as recognize exceptions. Moreover, our questioning of whether assimilation into white-dominated society serves the political interests of disadvantaged ethnic popu lations provides, we think, a refreshing alternative to pluralist conceptions of U.S. politics. 3. 4. Acknowledgments We thank María B. Vélez for helpful comments on previous drafts. We are also grateful to Arlene Santoro and Elizabeth Segura. The authors thank the Obermann Center for Advanced Studies at the University of Iowa for a 2003 Interdisciplinary Summer Research Grant, which supported this research in part. 5. Authors’ Note Earlier versions of this article were presented at the 2004 meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association in Chicago and the 2005 meetings of the American Sociological Association in Philadelphia. Authors’ names are listed alphabetically. 6. Declaration of Conflicting Interest The authors declared no conflicts of interest with respect to the authorship and/or publication of this article. Funding The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research and/or authorship of this article: the Obermann Center for Advanced Studies at the University of Iowa. Notes 1. In some policy domains, the polarization between whites and Mexican Americans can be quantified. For instance, roughly 80 to 90 percent of the non-Latino public support English-only laws, while 80 percent or more of Latinos have voted against such measures (Santoro 1999). In California, about two-thirds of whites supported Propositions 187 and 209, while more than three-quarters of Latinos voted against such measures (Pantoja and Segura 2003). Similarly, most non-Latinos (51 percent) approve of workplace raids for undocumented immigrants, but among Latinos, three-quarters disapprove of such actions (Pew Hispanic Center 2007). 2. A number of recent pieces have challenged this long-standing claim, showing higher rates of participation among recently 7. 8. naturalized immigrants (e.g., Pantoja, Ramirez, and Segura 2001). However, all of this work focuses on California, where the tense political environment fostered by the racially targeted Propositions 187, 209, and 227 politicized Latino immigrants to a degree heretofore unexpected. Moreover, we do not and cannot yet know whether this signals a long-term change or what if any effect it might have on the children of these surprisingly politicized foreignborn citizens. These results, then, cannot yet be extended to other states or other cohorts of naturalized citizens. In contrast to this long-standing pattern, 2007 survey data from the Pew Hispanic Center (2007) found roughly equal levels of self-reported accounts of discrimination for U.S.-born (42 percent) and foreign-born (40 percent) Latinos. Of course, the likelihood of engaging in ethnic political activity cannot decrease indefinitely, but at what threshold or generation such a “floor” is reached is difficult to a priori predict. Questions regarding voter turnout were prefaced with the following frame: “In talking to people about elections, we often find out that a lot of people aren’t able to vote because they were not registered, or they were sick, or they just didn’t have time. How about you?” Excluding noncitizens, 27.5 percent of our sample were first generation, 25.9 percent were second generation, 13.6 percent were U.S.-born with one immigrant parent and one nonimmigrant parent (2.5 generation), 7.2 percent were third generation, and 25.9 percent were fourth generation or higher. Including noncitizens, the respective percentages were 57.7 (1), 15.1 (2), 7.9 (2.5), 4.2 (3), and 15.1 (4+). While studies have found that the “2.5” generation are analytically distinct from either the second or third generation, we checked to make sure the inclusion of this distinction did not bias the results. Rerunning the models by recoding the 2.5 generation into the third generation did not change the significance or nature of the effect of generation on either measure of political participation. A related issue to consider is age at time of immigration, a difference that might presumably break the foreign-born into two or more groups. Deciding what ages are appropriate cut points is problematic and arbitrary, and for this reason, we did not attempt to break first-generation respondents down further. Nevertheless, the inclusion of a “1.5” category for respondents who immigrated at an early age (≤ 11 years) had no appreciable effects on the findings. Measures of ethnic identity used here vary significantly across generational values. Moreover, new data from the 2006 Latino National Survey on religious identity, Spanish usage, intermarriage, and socioeconomic performance all demonstrate significant generational variation consistent with the argument we make here. 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