Statistics 1, Activity 2 The Jellyblubber colony In the real world collecting data is time-consuming and expensive. Consequently it is not generally practical to collect data from an entire group of interest (known as the population), which may be people, animals or even a previously unknown form of jellyfish. Instead we collect data from only part of the population. This is known as sampling. Unfortunately, it is generally easier to sample badly rather than to sample well. Unintentionally, human responses tend to introduce bias and consequently the statistician’s remedy is to eliminate bias by eliminating human choice. This activity tackles this problem ‘head on’ as students contrast their initial thoughts firstly against their own choice of sample and later against a Simple Random Sample (SRS). In this second activity dealing with data, students are introduced to a new species of jellyfish that has been found off the Sussex coast and nicknamed ‘jellyblubbers’ by local people. It impossible to count how many ‘jellyblubbers’ are present, but some data has been collected and is being analysed for the purpose of answering the specific question: ‘On average, how big is a jellyblubber?’ This problem gives the students an introduction to how sampling can be used to draw conclusions about a much larger population. Features of this activity This activity introduces the Simple Random Sample (SRS) to students and shows why this process helps to generate an unbiased sample. It also highlights that relying on our own perceptions can be deceiving. Students will learn that a simple random sample (SRS) is often the most effective method of generating an unbiased sample, and that intuition can be deceptive. It introduces the idea of a distribution of sample means that will be revisited later. It uses a random number table. Page 1 of 4 Materials and preparation Introductory video (to be supplied) Introductory PowerPoint (jellyblubbers.ppt) Notebook file (jellyblubbers) (This is a Smartboard file.) Worksheet Rulers Random number tables Introducing the problem Introduce the problem through the newspaper article by using either the PowerPoint file or Notebook file (Smartboard). The ongoing question throughout this activity is: ‘On average, how big is a jellyblubber?’ First impressions Hand out the worksheet face down. Ask the students not to look at the sheet until they are told but tell them it contains an accurate artist’s impression of the colony of jellyblubbers. Display the second page. Warn the students that they will have only 5 seconds to look at the colony which equates to the time the marine biologists have when they look through their lens. Make sure the students understand they have to estimate the average width of a jellyblubber measured horizontally in mm. Now tell your students to turn over the paper and give them exactly 5 seconds to look before telling them to turn the paper over again. Ask the students to write down their initial estimate. Plot their estimates on a dot plot and discuss the dataset generated. It is very important to ask ‘Why didn’t you all get the same answer?’ Summarise the results. It would be good idea to discuss which average is the most appropriate, but try to guide your students towards the ‘mean’ as we want to include everyone’s estimate. Page 2 of 4 Choosing a representative sample Each student is now asked to choose a representative sample of 10 jellyblubbers. Once they have made their choice, they measure the length of each blubber and calculate the mean length. The teacher plots these values on a new dotplot, followed by a whole class discussion of dataset and the summary statistics generated. Choosing a Simple Random Sample (SRS) Now the student takes an SRS of 10 blubbers, as follows. Each jellyblubber is numbered from 1 to 100. Students generate 10 random numbers from a random number table in the range 1 to 100. They calculate the mean length of those ten blubbers. The teacher plots these means on a third dotplot. Each dotplot must have the same scale for comparison purposes. The class discusses the difference in the distributions – location, spread, outliers, etc. The actual average length of a blubber is 19.4 cm. Which method gave the best estimate? How accurate was it? How much spread was there around the correct value? Page 3 of 4 Further discussion A student decides to generate a random sample by closing her eyes and pointing at the sheet of blubbers randomly. She chooses the blubber which is closest to her finger. Comment on this method of generating an SRS. Extension A similar exercise can be conducted by putting a number of pieces of string of varying lengths into a bag and having students pull out a ‘random sample’ of lengths of string. Since a longer piece is more likely to be selected than a shorter one, the sample generated in this fashion is likely to give a biased result – one that is too large. References David S. Moore, Statistics, Concepts and Controversies, 4th edition. Page 4 of 4
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