A chartbook from
The Effects of Changing
State Theft Penalties
Increased felony thresholds have not resulted in higher property crime or larceny rates
Feb 2016
Policy change
• States are raising the value of stolen money/goods above which offenses can
be charged as felonies
Rationale
• Ensure value-based penalties take inflation into account
• E.g., threshold of $1,000 established in 1985 is equivalent to more than
twice that much in 2015 dollars
• Prioritize costly prison beds for more serious crime
Question
• Will higher cutoff points embolden criminals and cause crime, particularly
larceny, to rise?
Nominal
Example of Eroding Felony Theft Standard
$150
$750
‘55-’97
‘98-’01
$500
‘02-’11
Inflation adjusted
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Example
19551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011
D100 Lawn Tractor ($1,499)
JS46 Walk Behind Mover ($499)
Study
Pew examined crime trends in the 23 states that raised their
threshold between 2001 and 2011
Results of 3 analyses:
1.
Looking just at those 23 states, pre-post analysis found no
impact on overall property crime or larceny rates.
2.
Comparing with states that did not change theft laws (27),
those 23 states that increased their thresholds reported
roughly the same average decrease in crime.
3.
Looking across all states, the amount of a state’s felony theft
threshold—whether it is $500, $1,000, $2,000, or more—is
not correlated with its property crime and larceny rates.
U.S. Property Crime and Larceny Rates Have Fallen by a Third
Improved policing and anticrime technology cited among reasons for decline
Reported crimes per 100,000 residents
6,000
5,000
4,053
4,000
3,000
Property crime
2,730
2,596
Larceny
1,837
2,000
1,000
0
’98
’0 0
’02
’04
’06
Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States series, 1998-2014
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
’08
’10
’12
’14
Increases in Felony Theft Thresholds Had No Effect on Property
Crime, Larceny Rates
Crime decline continued in states that raised monetary limits between
2001 and 2011
Reported crimes per
100,000 residents
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,657
3,000
2,490
Property crime (average)
3,136
Larceny (average)
2,171
2,000
1,000
0
-3
-2
-1
Years before reform
0
1
2
3
Years after reform
Notes: Pew used a panel fixed-effects approach to determine whether increases in state felony theft thresholds had an effect on property
crime and larceny rates. The analysis found no statistically significant relationship using the standard threshold of 0.05. See the
methodological notes for more information about this analysis.
Source: Pew’s analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States series, 1998-2014.
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
States That Raised Felony Theft Thresholds Between 2001 and 2011
Had Crime Declines Similar to Those That Did Not
All states reported sharp decreases in property crime, larceny rates
Property crime
Larceny
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-31%
-35%
-33%
-31%
-35%
-40%
Threshold change states
Non-threshold change states
Notes: Pew evaluated data from 1998 to 2014 to allow for a sufficient before-and-after analysis of all state threshold changes between 2001
and 2011. Pew used a panel random-effects approach to measure changes in property crime and larceny rates and compare states that raised
their felony theft thresholds with those that did not. The analysis found no statistically significant relationship between the two groups of
states using the standard threshold of 0.05. See the methodological notes for more information about this analysis.
Source: Pew’s analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States series, 1998-2014
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Felony Theft Values Are Unrelated to Property Crime and
Larceny Rates
States report similar crime rates regardless of thresholds
2,613
$1,500 to $2,500
(11 states)
1,914
2,348
$1,000
(18 states)
1,721
2,695
$200 to $950
(21 states)
1,885
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Reported crimes per 100,000 residents in 2014
Property crime
Larceny
Notes: Pew conducted a linear correlation test to determine whether property crime and larceny rates in 2014 were higher in states with
higher felony theft thresholds. The analysis included no control variables and found no statistically significant correlation using the standard
threshold of 0.05.
Source: Pew’s analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States, 2014
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Property Crime and Larceny Rates Fell in 19 of 23 States That Raised
Their Felony Thresholds Between 2001 and 2011
Four states had increases in one or both rates
WA
ME
ND
MT
OR
MN
ID
WY
MI
UT
CA
CO
PA
IA
NE
NV
NY
WI
SD
IL
KS
OH
IN
WV
VA
KY
MO
NC
TN
AZ
OK
NM
SC
AR
MS
TX
AL
GA
LA
FL
AK
HI
No threshold change
Decreases in property crime and larceny rates (19 states)
Increases in property crime and larceny rates (NV, SD)
Increase in property crime rate, decrease in larceny rate (WA)
Decrease in property crime rate, increase in larceny rate (NM)
Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States series, 1998-2014
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Innovative example
• Alaska’s SB91 (Sec. 11.46.982) automatically updates the threshold every 5
years (via required report of the Alaska Judicial Council).
Scaling penalties beyond felony threshold
• Not just about misdemeanor/felony threshold: also about scaling for felony
class thresholds (e.g., where Class C becomes Class B becomes Class A)
Discussion
• Research
• Policy
• Politics