MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 2015: TABLE GRAPES
1.
INTRODUCTION
The following text is a review of the table grapes marketing environment. This analysis is updated on a
quarterly1 basis. The interval covered in the current issue is from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014.
This period is subdivided into five, three-month long quarters. The key issues discussed in the review are
the trends in producer prices, production volumes and gross value, sales in the National Fresh Produce
Markets (NFPMs), as well as volumes and gross values of both exports and imports. During the period
under review the average producer price increased by 1.67% on a year-on-year basis. The volume of
production increased by 51.35%, the volume of sales at the NFPMs increased by 27%, volume of exports
increased by 60%, while the volume of imports increased by24%.
2.
AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICE OF TABLE GRAPES
The average producer price showed a generally upward trend with increment of 13.89% in quarter 4. The
producer price increased from R13 824 per ton to R20 371 per ton. The average producer price peaks in
the fourth quarter, therefore the only direction the price of grape is likely to go in the next quarter is down
due to rise in production. Annual price trends showed an almost upwards figure with average producer
price of R 20 037 per ton and R 20 371 in quarter 4 2013 and quarter 4 2014 respectively. This is a 1.67%
increase on a year-on-year basis. On a broader context table grape producer prices are inversely related to
production. High volumes are accompanied by lower prices and lower volumes by higher prices.
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Quarter 1 (January to March), Quarter 2 (April to June), Quarter 3 (July to September), Quarter 4 (October to December)
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Figure 1: Average producer price of table grapes
Average price (Rand/Ton)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Price (Rand/Ton)
Q4 2011
20037
Q1 2014
16102
Q2 2014
12139
Q3 2014
13824
Q4 2014
20371.29062
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
3.
TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF TABLE GRAPES
The quarterly production and value of table grapes during the five quarters under review are presented in
Figure 2. Table grape production in South Africa during the fourth quarter dropped to 84 605 tons as
compared to last quarter 2 136 tons. This was a 3 860% increase as compared to last quarter (quarter 3
2014) and 51,35% more compared to last year at the same quarter (quarter 4 2013). Table grapes harvest
season takes place in quarter 1 of every year, therefore grape production is expected to reach its peak
around next quarter and start declining until it peaks up again in the fourth quarter. Grape production is
mainly driven by escalating international and domestic demand.
2
Figure 2: Quartery production and gross value of table grapes
3000
160000
2500
Volume in Tons
140000
120000
2000
100000
1500
80000
60000
1000
40000
500
20000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross value in Rands (million)
Q4 2013
55899
1120
Q1 2014
170488
2745
Q2 2014
16438
200
Q3 2014
2136
30
Q4 2014
84605
1724
Gross value in Rands (millions)
180000
0
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
4.
SALES AT THE NATIONAL FRESH PRODUCE MARKETS
Volumes and average prices for table grapes sold in the National Fresh Produce Markets (NFPMs) of
South Africa during the five quarters under review are presented in Figure 3. A total volume of 2 944 tons
were sold during the fourth quarter of 2014. This was a drop of 161% compared to previous quarter
(quarter 3, 2014) and 7.30% less as compared to last year at the same quarter (quarter 4, 2014).
Grape average price at NFPMs inclined to a record R17 712 per ton during the fourth quarter. This is
1.61% higher compared to previous quarter average price of R 17 431 per ton. This was an increase of
28% compared to last year during this time (quarter 4, 2014). Generally prices are at highest during the
third quarter. The main reason for this may be explained by a fact that there is a decrease in stock
availability at NFPMs therefore pushing prices further up. One can predict a decrease in prices for the next
coming quarter (quarter 1 2015) as available stocks at NFPMs is expected to increase and push prices
down.
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Figure 3: Quartely sale and prices of table grapes at NFPMs
12000
20000
Volume in Tons
16000
14000
8000
12000
6000
10000
8000
4000
6000
4000
2000
Gross value in Rand (millions)
18000
10000
2000
0
Volume in Tons
Price in Rand/Ton
Q4 2013
3176
13846
Q1 2014
10235
9237
Q2 2014
4557
10426
Q3 2014
1126
17431
Q4 2014
2944
17712
0
Quarters
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
5. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Quarterly export volumes and values of table grapes during the period under review are presented in
Figure 4. The total amount of exported grapes is inclusive of the dried table grapes and fresh table grapes.
South Africa exported grapes totaling 86 218 tons and worth R1.8 billion in quarter 4 of 2014. This value is
737% lower as compared to last quarter and 58% more as compared to last year at the same time. Within
the overall exported grapes, 92% (79 105 tons) were fresh grapes and 8% (7 113 tons) were dried grapes.
The bulk of table grapes produced were exported to Europe which imported 86% (74 030 tons) of the totally
exported grapes ( tons). Europe was followed by Asia, America, Africa and Oceania which imported 9%,
3%, 1.3 and 0.65% respectively.
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Figure 4: Quartely exports of Table grapes
4000
3500
Volume in Tons
200000
3000
2500
150000
2000
100000
1500
1000
50000
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
500
Q4 2013
53958
1144
Q1 2014
199983
3538
Q2 2014
33220
614
Q3 2014
10293
251
Q4 2014
86218
1869
Gross value in Rands (millions)
250000
0
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
With South Africa production increasing and increasing export volumes of grapes in such quantities it was
expected that less amounts of grapes will be imported during the fourth quarter 2014. This is evident on the
below graph (Figure 5). Generally South Africa imports large amounts of grapes during periods outside
harvest time, which is quarter 3 and quarter 4 of every year. Quarterly grapes imports for the fourth quarter
were 990 tons, which is 63% lower compared to the previous quarter and 24% lower compared to last year
at the same quarter. Out of the total 990 tons of table grapes imported in quarter 4 of 2014, almost 100%
(989 tons) were fresh grapes. The largest supplier of grapes into South Africa was Europe supplying 90%
of the produce followed by Africa with 10%. One can expect a sharp decrease in the amount of grapes
imported for the next coming quarter as production is expected to increase.
5
3000
70
2500
60
50
2000
40
1500
30
1000
20
500
0
Volume in Tons
Gross Value (R Million)
10
Q4 2013
1310
29
Q1 2014
0
0
Q2 2014
390
8
Q3 2014
2656
63
Q4 2014
990
27
0
Gross value in Rands (millions
Volume in Tons
Figure 5: Quartely imports of grapes
Quarters
Source: Quantec Easydata
6.
GROWTH, VOLATILITY & STABILITY ANALYSIS
Table 1 presents the results of growth and coefficient of variation estimations. They were calculated using
quarterly statistics and covered the same five-quarter period under review beginning in quarter 4 of 2013
and ending in quarter 4 of 2014. The coefficient of variation is a measure of volatility or stability. When the
coefficient of variation is less than one, the variable in question is said to be relatively stable, meaning that
there were minimal changes. When the coefficient of variation is more than one, it is said to be volatile,
meaning there were major changes during the period under review.
Table 1: Table grape industry growth rates & variation coefficients (Quarter 4, 2013 – Quarter 4
2014)
Category
Producer price
Production
Sales at NFPMs
Export
Import
Subcategory
Price
Gross Value (GV)
Volume
GV/Price
Volume
Gross Value
Volume
Gross Value
Volume
Growth Rate (%)
0.04
0.96
0.10
6.35
-1.88
13.07
12.43
-2.36
-6.78
Coefficient of Variation
0.22
0.11
1.01
0.28
0.79
0.88
0.97
0.96
0.96
Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF and Quantec
As shown in the table above, the table grape industry generally experienced mixed growth from quarter 4 of
2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. The volume sold at markets, exports and imports grew negatively, while the
producer price, gross value of sales at the NFMPs, gross value of production and gross value and volumes
of export of all variables grew positively.
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The table also shows various levels of volatility at different levels of the table grape industry’s quarterly
figures over the same period. Low volatility was indicated by the coefficients of variation that were less than
one (<1). All variables, with the exception of volumes of production are less than 1, which means that on a
weighted variance scale, they displayed minor changes during the five quarters under review.
7.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources:
Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis
www.daff.gov.za
Quantec Easydata
www.easydata.co.za
For more information contact:
Director: Marketing
Department of Agriculture
Private Bag X 15
Arcadia
0007
Tel: (012) 319 8455/6
Fax: (012) 319 8131
E-mail: [email protected]
Deputy Director: Commodity
Marketing
Tel: (012) 319 8072
Fax: (012) 319 8077
E-mail: [email protected]
Senior Agricultural Economist
Tel: (012) 319 8081
Fax: (012) 319 8081
E-mail: [email protected]
Websites: www.daff.gov.za
www.webapps.daff.gov.za/mis
Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the
purpose of detailing grape industry. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in this
document are those of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with regard to agricultural industry, unless
otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability that can be incurred
resulting from the use of this information.
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