3DAYCAR PROGRAMME THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE 3DAYCAR Joe Miemczyk School of Management, University of Bath Tel: 01225 323873 Fax: 01225 826135 E-mail: [email protected] Ref: E4 – 03/02 March 2002 Confidential EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 4 1.0 BACKGROUND TO AUTO MANUFACTURING AND THE ENVIRONMENT........................ 7 1.1 THE RESEARCH QUESTION .........................................................................................7 1.2 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE AUTO-SECTOR ....................................8 1.3 THE STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT ............................................................................10 2.0 SUPPLIERS ..................................................................................................... 11 2.1 BACKGROUND .........................................................................................................11 2.2 SUPPLIER PROCESS IMPACTS - BACKGROUND AND 3DAYCAR DATA ...........................15 2.2 IMPLICATIONS OF RESPONSIVE SUPPLY ....................................................................19 2.3 REDUCING SUPPLIER IMPACTS .................................................................................20 3.0 INBOUND LOGISTICS ........................................................................................ 22 3.1 TRANSPORTING MATERIALS TO MANUFACTURING ......................................................22 3.2 IMPACT OF FREQUENT DELIVERIES ...........................................................................23 3.3 REDUCING JIT TRADE-OFFS .....................................................................................24 4.0 VEHICLE MANUFACTURING .............................................................................. 26 4.1 VEHICLE PRODUCTION – IS IT FIT FOR THE ENVIRONMENT?........................................26 4.2 IMPACT ON THE PAINT PROCESS ...............................................................................28 4.3 BETTER AIR QUALITY FROM VEHICLE MANUFACTURING ..............................................29 5.0 OUTBOUND LOGISTICS .................................................................................... 31 5.1 IMPACTS ON THE CUSTOMER'S DOORSTEP ................................................................31 5.2 EFFECTS OF SHORTER DELIVERY LEAD TIME .............................................................31 5.3 CUSTOMER DELIVERY - NOT A GREEN COMPROMISE! ................................................33 6.0 3DAYCAR IMPACTS: THE VEHICLE LIFE CYCLE PERSPECTIVE .............................. 34 7.0 FUTURE ISSUES WITHIN THE 3DAYCAR SCENARIOS ........................................... 35 APPENDIX A............................................................................................................ 38 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 43 2 Confidential The author would like to thank the following people for their help in prioritising the environmental impacts of the automotive supply chain processes. Ford Europe - Dr Hugo Clyster - Environmental Quality Manager GKN Plc - Dr Michael Kennedy - Environmental Manager Jaguar Cars - Dr Geraint Williams - Environmental Operations Manager KPMG Sustainability Unit - Dr Kim Polgreen - Consultant MG Rover - Neil Maycock MG Rover - Sheena Law - Senior Environmental Advisor Nissan Manufacturing UK - Paul Fitchett - Homologation Manager Nissan Manufacturing UK - Linda Barker - Environmental Engineer Peugeot Motor Company - Mike Adams - Environmental Manager The author would also like to thank the 3DayCar Team for help in understanding the impact of a three-day car on these processes 3 Confidential Executive Summary This report summarises the overall potential impact of implementing a 3DayCar on the environment and the possible means of minimising such impacts, many of which have been detailed in other 3DayCar programme reports. Although there are few areas of major concern overall, there are some activities which could cause greater environmental damage than in the current situation. A 3-day build-to-order system affects processes throughout the supply chain but the main environmental impacts are at the vehicle painting stage and in delivery to the customer. Given no change to current operating systems, the impacts at each stage are as follows Suppliers manufacturing processes can incur significant increase in environmental effects in terms of energy use and waste production. Where batch sizes and processes have to be reduced in a 3DayCar scenario, waste associated with changeovers would increase. Sub-optimal use of capital equipment such as presses, injection moulding and machining processes for metal components, due to greater variation in production volume over time, can incur greater overall energy use. Small production batches would also lead to increased frequency of material supply into 1st and 2nd tier suppliers, thus increasing transport impacts. The following actions can be taken to reduce the environmental impact of the 3DayCar on suppliers. Operational measures can include maintaining current batch sizes and increasing the inventory buffer to cope with demand variation as necessary. (Note. Simulation to date has shown that with faster passage of more accurate production requirements, component stock in general need not increase). Suppliers have suggested that the most beneficial tools for process improvement are • Total cost accounting systems to accurately identify the environmental costs. • Environmental management systems to allow proper consideration of environmental issues within manufacturing facilities. • Process mapping to identify wastes in processes • Management techniques for identifying cleaner alternatives to the present processes. Technology should address waste reduction at changeover, and pollution prevention at source is usually the best option. Input impact reduction should, for instance, cover the use of water or high-solid/low-solvent paints rather than solvent based paints. Process technology which has zero or low impact when not being utilised should be encouraged. For example, machines which can be turned off without impacting on set-up times and production quality Inbound logistics to vehicle manufacturers will increase in frequency, due to shorter cycle times. Unless greater load consolidation is implemented this will increase overall truck distances from suppliers to vehicle manufacturers. Current impacts are related to a travel distance of 100kms per car produced (30 litres of fuel per car) in the UK. Increases to daily delivery of components to cope with short notice changes to schedules would increase delivery distances by 83% (92km to 169km). To reduce the impact of the increase in total annual mileage driven by heavy goods vehicles within a 3DayCar, the following proposals are made: • Increase the use of consolidation and movement of components for different manufacturers on the same truck. For example, where a Welsh supplier delivers parts for 2 vehicle manufacturers in the same region, such as Rover and Jaguar, the 4 Confidential logistics company should pick up parts for both VMs and take the parts to a crossdock. Here, parts are split between Rover and Jaguar and line-hauled to each plant. This increases the capacity utilisation of the truck without increasing the distance travelled, thus reducing the overall mileage to supply the two VMs. • Mix motor industry components with other industrial products on the same load to enable better utilisation of transport capacity. This means that milkruns would require less area to be covered to fill a truck. It is widely believed that rail as an alternative mode of transport has a lower environmental impact per tonne of product transported than road. The main negative issues with UK rail tend to be: • Geographical infrastructure relative to access to suppliers and VM’s, • Excess cost given that road has often to be used at each end of the journey (Note. This also adds time in transfers between modes of transport) • The bulk nature of rail, with small loads being uneconomic. Infrequent delivery results. For rail to be a viable option, further research is needed to understand how these issues can be overcome together with better reliability of service, tracing and tracking of in-transit inventory and damage limitation. The biggest improvement in environmental impact can be achieved through the use of new technology. HGVs that conform to the next European emission standards applying from 2005 will more than compensate for the increase in emissions from greater annual mileage using current technology . Vehicle manufacturing impacts due to the 3DayCar result from changes in the vehicle painting process. Overall both body and final assembly processes present few environmental problems. The 3DayCar demands a more responsive paint process, painting cars as they are required by incoming customer orders, rather than in large batches of the same colour. Even with a large painted body store to buffer the effect of the paint shop operation, individual orders for certain coloured bodies will be desirable and the average batch size for paint colours will have to reduce. The major environmental problem in the paint process is solvent, which is used to clear paint delivery lines between each colour batch. It releases volatile organic compounds on evaporation, which are regulated pollutants. As batch sizes reduce, solvent use from changeovers increases and so the impact from these changeovers potentially increases by 3 times. This can be mitigated by introducing new technologies such as water-based and powder based primer, base and clear coats. Alternatively, maintaining large paint batches reduces this impact but also reduces responsiveness. Outbound logistics will be affected because of the one day delivery requirement from UK factories to UK dealers within a 3DayCar. This will lead to greater distances being travelled between dealers. In delivering daily, dealers will actually receive only one car per transporter load on average, based on current sales volumes and so current capaciyty transporters would deliver to more dealers for each full load. 3DayCar research suggests this can increase truck distances by 30% with corresponding increases in fuel use. A combination of improving truck technologies and operational changes will decrease this impact to less than a 10% increase. Changes will include multifranchise delivery, smaller trucks within a mixed capacity fleet, delivery of vehicles to dealers throughout the 24 hour day, better and more timely forward information from the 5 Confidential VM for planning purposes, and integration with other vehicle flows such as ELVs or used cars. Additionally the need for large vehicle holding compounds will be removed and this will improve overall land use. Vehicle technology can significantly reduce the impacts. The predominance of vehicle deliveries being in urban areas means that low emission technology will have the greatest benefit rather than operational improvements in reducing the impact of pollution. Such technology includes fuel efficient tractor units, exhaust gas re-circulation units, particulate traps and dual fuel engine capability. These types of technologies attract certain compensatory grants in the UK, for example the powershift programme and the green fuel challenge. In order to maximise utilisation of capacity there are many opportunities in the field of collaborative information system arrangements with other players, both between logistics companies and between various users of transporters such as for direct delivery of new vehicles, dealer transfers, used cars, and vehicle recycling. The potential of e-commerce and open access trading systems would allow a combination of activities to be sold as slots on transporters for a certain geographic area, and particularly increase backload capacity usage after the initial load has been delivered. These impacts are based on a 3DayCar built and delivered in the UK without significant changes to industry structure and processes. It is possible to envision alternative scenarios which would enable the global supply of BTO vehicles in short leadtimes. In this radical 3DayCar scenario, environmental impacts could be further reduced through changes in logistics system design and vehicle manufacturer paint processes. This option requires significant changes to vehicle design which would include greater modularity and standardisation in vehicle systems and body structures, including spaceframes and coloured plastic panels. For all cars to be built to order in a short lead time, local assembly plants in each market or region are necessary. However, breaking current economies of scale would require a re-think from vehicle inception and design. 6 Confidential 1.0 Background to auto manufacturing and the environment There are four phases to a vehicle's life cycle - materials extraction and processing, automobile production, vehicle use and vehicle disposal (Keoleian et al., 1997, DTI, 2000). The material extraction and processing phase of the life cycle is responsible for several environmental impacts such as the acidification of water and land, heavy metal contamination and toxic and solid residual wastes. The automotive industry is responsible for large amounts of material consumption. Data has shown that the industry consumes 20% of all steel and 10% of all aluminium worldwide. The plastics content of automobiles comprises 7% of the world total(Danholt and Bragg, 1996, RCEP, 1994, Weber, 1991). The production phase also contributes around 10-20% of the energy use in the whole life-cycle of a vehicle and significant proportions of hazardous wastes and toxic emissions. The last two phases of the vehicle life cycle have received the most attention with relation to regulations and media interest. The use and end of life phases both contribute to the majority of energy use and both result in significant emissions to the atmosphere while the end of life phase contributes to waste going to landfill in the form of shredder waste. The end of life issue is becoming more of an important concern as vehicle manufacturers find themselves being legislated to take action on providing a free take back service, ensure better recyclability and meet targets for quality and quantity actual recycling of vehicles. This is seen as likely to result in much higher costs than the current process. The transport of end of life vehicles (ELVs) is major cost to the process and itself causes impacts, so actions to reduce this is seen as important. This report is primarily concerned with the automobile production phase of the vehicle life cycle as this is where the a 3DayCar has most affect in terms of changes to the car distribution and production processes. With the background of huge resource use in vehicle production, it is clear that the environmental impacts associated with this phase are significant. 1.1 The research question The research question is: "What are the likely environmental impacts of implementing a 3day car build to order system?" In order to answer the question, it is important to understand what a 3-day car build-toorder (BTO) system would look like and which areas of the vehicle supply chain and lifecycle it will affect. From the main outputs of the 3DayCar programme, it is possible to describe the key ingredients necessary and therefore what the possible environmental impacts are on physical processes involved. These are documented below for each of the major areas across the supply chain in terms of the conferences at which presentations were given or reports and papers produced by the 3DayCar team. Suppliers In order to respond without holding stocks against demand variability, suppliers should supply requirements within c.36 hours of the customer order being sequenced on to the final assembly track; the precise assembly sequence being determined on an hourly basis 36 hours ahead of this point. Those components 7 Confidential which cannot meet this time scale due to lead times and/or frequency of production and delivery will have to hold increased stock to cater for variability. However, increased frequency of production and/or delivery to reduce overall lead times and therefore stock levels required is encouraged where economically feasible. This can be achieved by changing processes, locating closer to the VM and/or lateconfiguration of parts/assemblies at a supplier park.(Holweg, 2001, Holweg, 2002) Inbound logistics To meet the desired 36 hours response time it may in some cases be necessary to increase the frequency of delivery from suppliers who are located within one day of the factory. For shipments from further away (US Japan, Eastern Europe) more stock will have to be held at the factory or supplier park/assembly area near the factory. (Holweg and Williams, 2000, Howard and Miemczyk, 2000, Holweg et al., 2001) Vehicle manufacturers The main impact on VMs is related to the direct booking of orders into the assembly line daily sequence, shorter schedule lead times, increased flexibility and increased reliability and changes in production and IT systems to enable a 3DayCar. It is suggested that the VM process should be de-coupled between the paint shop and final assembly so that customer orders are not physically identified with a vehicle until the entry onto final assembly. Body and paint would act as internal suppliers to final assembly via a painted body storage tower. The paint process needs better reliability and low batch size capability in order to minimise the reliance on a limited capacity painted body store. Final assembly would not be significantly affected except that more labour is needed to cover line-balancing constraints. (Holweg and Jones, 2001, Holweg, 1999, Howard, 2000b) Outbound delivery One day delivery is required for all vehicles to UK dealers in order for a 3 day lead time to be achieved. This implies more frequent shipment of vehicles to dealers leading to increased distances to fully utilise current transporter capacity. (Holweg and Williams, 2000, Howard and Miemczyk, 2000, Holweg et al., 2001) 1.2 Environmental impact assessment of the auto-sector The impact of the motor vehicle on the environment has been widely discussed by policymakers, industry and academics. Most of this work has focussed on the vehicle use phase and subjects such as vehicle emissions and use of resources, particularly fuel. It has recently been recognised that it is important to understand the impact of the other stages in its life cycle from cradle to grave. This has led to a considerable number of research papers being issued on related subjects. ((EDF, 1999), Chul Kim et al., 2000, DTI, 2000, Keoleian et al., 1997, Kincaid et al., 2000, MacLean et al., 2000, Sullivan et al., 1998, Bickel et al., 1997, Emblemsvag and Bras, 2000). This research has shown that while the use phase contributes most to energy use (e.g. 80%), other stages still use significant amounts of energy, produce a great number of wastes and use large quantities of resources. The end of life vehicle stage results in 8-9 million tonnes of landfill waste every year in Europe and much if this is due to the types of material used in the car which can not be reused or recycled economically at present. Therefore it is valid to investigate and understand how changes to vehicle production processes can effect their contribution to the overall impact of the vehicle life-cycle on the environment. 8 Confidential Traditional life cycle analysis (LCA) is a tool used to examine the specific environmental effects of products and processes and is tailored to suit a single product over a set of specified circumstances. The 3DayCar programme has produced a broad strategic process model for the auto sector, from which it was decided that a full scale LCA was not the best use of resources at an early stage in the research. It has been possible, though, to assess the current environmental importance of supply chain processes by other means, and the likelihood that these will be affected by build-toorder in a short leadtime. This has been achieved through devising a scoring system in order to understand the importance of various process impacts and weight these according to the possible effect on them of short BTO leadtimes. The following method has therefore been used. ♦ The automotive supply chain, as relevant to the 3DayCar build-to-order process, was divided into its constituent transformational processes and these main processes defined. ♦ Each process was then assigned a score of 1-5 according to the importance of the environmental impact. This is then multiplied by the likelihood of it being effected by a rapid build to order system. This is shown in the figure below. Process description Process: Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 1-5 used Score Score 1-5 used Scores are multiplied ♦ An expert opinion based survey (Delphi survey) was sent to key environmental experts in the automotive sector, to obtain a score for the environmental importance of each process described. This was combined with previous work in the programme to quantify the current and possible changes in the environmental impacts of a 3DayCar. ♦ The scores were combined to obtain an aggregate score for each process. ♦ The processes were then be ranked in order of significance. From this it was possible to prioritise research in order to propose ways of maximising the reduction of impacts in the most important areas. 9 Confidential The important areas identified and discussed in this report are:Process Foundry - Sand casting Foundry - Die casting Section referred to 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 Metal Fabrication Machining Metal finishing Plastic moulding Plastic fabrication Supplier logistics Inbound logistics Body assembly Vehicle painting Final assembly Vehicle delivery End of life vehicle 1.3 The structure of this report This report is based on research carried out over the three years of the 3DayCar programme. It is an accumulation of data collected from diverse sources as a result of surveys and personal interviews with industry experts and practitioners, as well as reviews of the literature covering the environmental implications of vehicle production. In the case of paint shop and distribution impacts, the reader is advised to consult two specific reports written on these subjects for more details, since only the conclusions and main facts are described here. (See the 3DayCar Paintshop Survey and The 3DayCar Logistics Study). Section 2 describes the environmental implications of supply chain activities and the impact of a 3DayCar on these activities. Section 3 describes a case study of inbound logistics to vehicle assembly and implications of build to order. Section 4 describes the impacts of vehicle assembly from inbound logistics through body, painting and final assembly. Section 5 describes the effects associated with vehicle distribution Section 6 ranks the impacts of a 3DayCar on the environment in order of importance and suggests a prioritisation of actions to reduce such impacts Section 7 suggests that there may be more than one approach to build to order in 3 days, and that these may have differing environmental impacts. These different approaches are described as Pre-3DayCar, 3DayCar and Radical 3DayCar and have also been simulated using the 3DayCar model to understand their impacts on other issues such as finance and systems. 10 Confidential 2.0 Suppliers For the purpose of this study only 1st and 2nd tier suppliers and their processes have been investigated. This is because the impact of a 3DayCar is most significant at these stages, despite the large environmental considerations further up the supply chain. 2.1 Background An example of the environmental attributes of a module is the instrument panel, which has been studied extensively. It contains 17 different materials, including 15 types of plastic as well as steel and magnesium. It weighs up to 25kg and involves many manufacturing processes including metal fabrication, foundry operations and plastic moulding. The raw material extraction and production consumes 37% of the total life cycle energy and generates 32% of the solid wastes as well as accounting for 25% of the CO2 emissions over its life through to disposal. This one part demonstrates the complexity of the analysis needed to understand the environmental impacts of the automotive supply chain (EDF, 1999). The following sections describe the main processes which have environmental impacts in the component supply chain. Alongside this the results of the survey of environmental experts are presented, which was carried out to gauge the level of environmental importance of the various processes within the complete life cycle, Foundry operations The foundry is used to form iron and steel parts, typically using sand casting methods, whereas aluminium and magnesium are often formed using the die cast method. a) Sand casting This process generates air releases and solid wastes. When poured into the pattern, the extreme heat of the molten metal causes a portion of the binder to "flash off". These binders can be toxic chemicals such as phenol or formaldehyde. The shake out also releases fine particles of sand and clay into the air, which contribute to respiratory problems in the locality. The waste sand mixture can be recycled as a solid waste stream once the binder and clay have been removed. Process: Foundry - Sand casting Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact b) Score 4 1 4 Die casting Die-casting is often used for moulding smaller metal parts such as transmission or compressor castings. To prevent sticking, a releasing agent is often sprayed onto the die before metal is poured in. Then the part is removed and water sprayed on and/or circulated round the die to cool it down and remove releasing agent. Again this produces air releases and waste water. A portion of the releasing agent vaporises when in contact with the molten metal. This is a volatile release and can be toxic to an extent depending on the exact material used. The cooling water can also be contaminated with releasing agent and has to be treated before it is disposed of down a drain or re-circulated. 11 Confidential Process: Foundry - Die casting Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 3 1 3 Machining The machining process creates coolant and lubricant mist which can irritate the skin and eyes, affect asthma sufferers and cause long term breathing disorders. Metal shavings, fines and contaminated coolants and lubricants are significant wastes from the machining process. Process: Machining Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 3 2 6 Metal fabrication This process generates few direct wastes. Metal fines, oils and other contaminants are removed by a cleaning process and often the cleaning solutions such as water and solvents generate are contaminated and difficult to dispose of at the end of the process. Most metals are usually recycled within the process. Process: Metal Fabrication Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 2 1 2 Plastic fabrication Although this is a very common process in the supplier sector for handling plastics, fabrics and foams, there are few wastes generated. In most cases the excess materials produced are recycled. Process: Plastic fabrication Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 2 1 2 Metal Finishing Finishing processes provide a protective or decorative surface to various metal parts. Painting is perhaps the most common finishing process. Others include anodising, chemical-based plating, electroplating and chemical conversion coatings. In the supply sector, electroplating is a common process used to coat a metal with a thin layer of another type of metal. Zinc coating is normally called galvanising. The zinc can be applied either electrolytically (which gives a thinner coating) or by dipping the steel in a bath of molten zinc. Much of the sheet used to produce car bodies is zinc coated. This has enabled thinner steels to be used for car bodies, thus saving weight and improving fuel 12 Confidential consumption. Without this coating, the thinner steels would rust, shortening the car's life. Organic coatings, such as plastic and paint, can be applied to extend the steel's life, while at the same time giving it an attractive appearance. Aluminium coated sheet provides a combination of corrosion and heat resistance ideal for car exhaust pipes. In these processes, parts are immersed in a solution of metal ions. The parts are coated within the process, rinsed with water, and proceed to other manufacturing steps. Metals are commonly coated with brass, cadmium, chromium, copper, gold, nickel, silver and tin, besides zinc. Liquid, including water, and hazardous wastes result from the metal finishing process due to contamination by heavy metals and toxic chemicals. Process: Metal finishing Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 4 3 12 Plastics moulding Injection moulding is another typical automotive supplier process and is one of the most widely used polymer conversion processes. It is capable of producing almost any component. For injection moulding, the polymer resin is heated until molten together with any additives and injected into a water cooled mould. Once solid, the mould is opened, the component ejected, and the cycle repeated. Irrespective of the machinery used, the sequence of events in the process can be represented by the following cycle: injection time - filling the mould; dwell time - mould full and under pressure; freeze time - mould sets to allow removal; and dead time - time to open mould, remove moulding and close again. Air, water and plastics are the primary waste streams from the moulding process. Chemical additives which are mixed with the plastic resin contribute to air releases and some of these are toxic, such as lead as a heat stabiliser and antimony trioxide as a flame retardant. As the resin is heated the additives are often vaporised and released into the air. Water is used to cool the process and clean the surfaces of the product and equipment. The waste streams can become contaminated with oils, organic compounds and metals and so must be treated before disposal. The energy contribution to this whole process can be broken down as follows with a total of 119 Mega Joules (MJ) per kg1: On average a car contains 90 kilograms of plastic and so the MJ per stage per car can be shown. Life cycle stage Polymer production Polymer delivery Processing Space heating Packaging Energy contribution 64.39% 0.17% 22.78% 10.75% 1.91% MJ per stage per car 6897 18 2439 1146 214 Assuming that plastic contributes 9% of a car by weight, then the total energy used in plastic production for each car is 10,710MJ; equivalent to 166 litres of fuel, over 3 tanks full of petrol, or typically 1000 miles of driving. 1 ECO-profiles - APME 13 Confidential The air emissions associated with injection moulding 1kg of Polypropylene (PP) for a bumper or dashboard compared with Acrylonitrile-Butadiene-Styrene (ABS), which is an alternative engineering plastic used for more decorative interior trim parts, are as follows: Emission per kg of component produced Dust CO CO2 SOx NOx Hydrocarbons Methane H2S HCl Aromatic -HC & other organics ABS process emissions/mg 310 2,100 180,000 670 600 3,100 330 1 2 660 PP Process emission level/mg 36 67 19,000 70 120 1,300 650 2 1 2 The main differences between these types is that CO2 emission is much greater for ABS. In fact ABS is generally worse for most emission types, apart from methane (which is also a global warming gas) and H2S (Hydrogen Sulphide) which is a respiratory inhibitor and readily combines with oxygen to produce Sulphur dioxide which is implicated in acid rain. It can thus be seen that the injection moulding process contributes a significant amount of energy use, in fact around 20-25% of energy used in the total production of a vehicle and also releases significant air emissions, varying dependent on the type of plastic material being moulded. Process: Plastic moulding Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 3 3 9 14 Confidential 2.2 Supplier process impacts - background and 3DayCar data Vehicle manufacturers work with suppliers to improve environmental performance although the extent to which this happens varies considerably across car producers as demonstrated in the following chart (Figure 1). High performing manufacturers are indicated by 2, lower performing companies by 1 and those which have no type of supplier environmental initiatives by 0. 2 Working with suppliers on environment 1 FI AT FO R D G H M O ND A BM W PO PS R A S T O CH Y E H OT YU A N D M AI A M ZD i ts A ub N i sh i IS R SA EN N A U SU L T ZU KI VO D C X S LK A AB S W AB AG VO EN LV O 0 Figure 1: Source: UNEP 2000 Supplier actions on impacts Background research into supplier impacts was carried out in the US by the University of Tennessee for GM Saturn suppliers (Kincaid et al., 2000). This found that metal working was the most commonly implicated activity of automotive suppliers in terms of environmental problems, partly because of its scale of activity (see Figure 2). 15 Confidential Processes which cause problems Metal working Plastics process Painting/coating Rubber process Assembly Metal Plating 0 10 20 30 40 Figure 2 : The percentage of supplier processes with environmental impacts (Kincaid 2000) In terms of environmental impacts, air emissions were found to be by far the most significant, with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which cause respiratory problems probably the most common. For example, VOCs are released from the painting, coating, and cleaning processes of such suppliers as those of bumpers and trim parts. Other impacts include waste-water produced within processes and the cleaning parts. Solid wastes are also a concern and, although often not directly toxic, can be costly in management and disposal. It should be noted that this data has been based on a sample of US suppliers only, and that no similar data was available for the UK and Europe, which have a different regulatory regime and therefore different environmental priorities. Most important issues Air emissions Wastew ater Solid w astes 0 10 20 30 40 50 Figure 3: Percentage of most important types of impact (Kincaid 2000) Component suppliers actions on these impacts are driven by environmental regulation and vehicle manufacturer material specifications. There are also some internal cost drivers behind the reduction of these impacts as a result of the cost of • Meeting the requirements of regulation such as permits, license to operate, and process authorisation • Capital equipment to reduce the impact of wastes such as incinerators and waste storage equipment 16 Confidential • Waste disposal, particularly high for hazardous or toxic wastes such as those containing heavy metals or acidic compounds. 3DayCar research on UK suppliers In order to understand the impacts of UK suppliers, which could be different to those in the US, part of the supplier survey for 3DayCar addressed environmental issues. In line with the US study, suppliers were asked to detail their most significant environmental impacts in terms of what they are and from which processes. The next chart (Fig 4) shows that the majority of suppliers perceived they had significant impacts in several areas with different levels of pollution impact. 100% Percentage of suppliers with impacts Low 80% High 60% 40% 20% 0% Haz waste High energy Air emissions Water discharge High water Figure 4: The importance of different environmental impacts to automotive suppliers The most significant environmental issues from the 3DayCar suppliers survey are: ♦ In general, the level of consciousness of UK suppliers on environmental impacts is much higher than in the US. Even the area considered to have the most impact in the USA, namely air emissions, is considered to have a higher impact by UK suppliers. ♦ Energy use - Over 50% of suppliers have high impact issues related to energy use and this is seen as a significant problem, which was not reflected at all in the US research (probably due to the lower cost of energy in the US). This emphasis can be explained by the fact that energy use is currently a top priority in the UK, with the Government having introduced the Climate Change Levy which penalises users of large amounts of energy with low labour requirements. Plastic moulding and paint operations fall in this category. ♦ Air emissions – The high level of impact can also be put down to new regulations requiring management of air emissions (IPPC regulations) which has a significant effect on the type of processes seen in the supplier sample. ♦ Hazardous waste – While this affects over 80% of suppliers, the impact is less important than energy or air emissions. Chart 5 shows which of the supplier processes cause the most environmental impacts. The number of impacts resulting from the main processes for each of the sample of 17 suppliers was calculated, enabling an assessment of the overall importance of each type of process. 17 Confidential Number & importance of impacts BIW pressings Assembly of running gear HVAC units Fuel tanks Plastic components Wire Extrusions, inject mould, roll formings Exterior trim - moulding Driveshafts Metal pressings Engines Interior trim - decorative Coloured bumper High impact Powertrain gears Low impact 0 1 2 3 4 5 Figure 5: The relative environmental effects of the main supplier processes. The processes found to have the highest impacts are: ♦ Power train gear & engine manufacture - metal machining and heat treatment ♦ Coloured bumper production - moulding, forming and painting plastics ♦ Interior trim production - moulding and painting ♦ External trim - moulding and coating ♦ Extrusion and inject moulding and roll formings Given these impacts, it is important to ask what the actual effects caused by these processes are? Air emissions are of the greatest concern and cause significant local issues for air quality. In particular respiratory problems arise from emissions of organic compounds such as VOC, hydrocarbons and hydrogen sulphide. The tiny particulate matter that arises from combustion processes is also implicated in the cause of cancers of various types. These impacts have all been described in section 2.1. Logistics to suppliers Suppliers to UK vehicle assembly plants, particularly 2nd & 3rd tier and raw material, are located throughout Europe or even globally. This clearly affects the distance that materials are transported, the responsiveness of the total supply chain and the overall costs and impacts of producing components and products. Data from the 3DayCar supplier survey suggests that supplier logistics varies considerably in that some rely on local supply while others have much longer supply chains. This is demonstrated in figure 6. 18 Confidential Total annual logistics kms 11 10 9 Engine assembly 8 7 6 5 4 Total annual distance covered for sample = 2,585,920 Kms 3 2 1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Distance / km s 000's 700 800 900 1000 Figure 6: Logistics transport into suppliers In Figure 6, the vertical axis (from 1-11) represents each supplier surveyed. The horizontal axis shows the total annual distance covered by inbound supply to the supplier. In particular, engine assembly relies on many parts sourced from Europe and delivered at frequent intervals, meaning that the total road distance travelled is over one million kilometres per year. On the other hand, an interior trim supplier requires a smaller quantity of less specialised material from shorter distance suppliers. Although the frequency of delivery is still high, only 16,000 kilometres per year travel is involved. Any statement on the magnitude of this impact will depend on where raw material itself is sourced, but the impact of inbound logistics is significant to suppliers and it is worth attention to reduce costs and environmental impact. On the basis of only these 11 suppliers the total distance of 2.5 million kilometres is significant, especially if this is multiplied up the total supply base of 200-300 suppliers. Process: Supplier logistics Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 3 3 9 2.2 Implications of responsive supply Given the various types of process and the fact that certain products are highly dependent on demand characteristics (i.e. colour keyed items that can depend on trim and option level), the reduced schedule horizons of 3DayCar will have an impact on their production planning and could possibly affect the magnitude of the environmental impact. Most of these processes require batching operations to obtain production efficiencies and economies of scale (i.e. painting bumpers in a batch of 50 or 100.) Changing these batch processes to better match demand can increase change-over frequency unless higher buffer stocks are held. This introduces additional waste into the system such as, for instance, paint line purging waste fluids and solvent emissions for evaporating purge wastes. 19 Confidential Those suppliers on a weekly schedule can produce a week's batch over a couple of days and then shut down equipment or re-allocate non-specific plant to other production for the rest of the week. If supply is required on a daily basis with requirements changing every 12 days then daily production runs may be required which could sub-optimise plant usage. This could particularly effect injection moulding especially if it implies extra capacity. Energy use would increase as machines may be left on all the time to ensure availability, despite the same volume being produced over time. Quantification of these impacts will be on a case by case basis. It is suggested that further research is needed to examine the exact process changes required and any resultant increase in impact. 2.3 Reducing supplier impacts The following actions can be taken to reduce the environmental impact of the 3DayCar on suppliers Operational measures: ♦ Maintain current batch sizes and increase the inventory buffer to cope with demand variation as necessary. (Note. Simulation to date has shown that with faster passage of more accurate production requirements, component stock in general need not increase) Suppliers have suggested that the most beneficial tools would be. ♦ Total cost accounting systems to accurately identify the environmental costs ♦ Environmental management systems which environmental issues by manufacturing facilities. allows proper consideration of ♦ Process mapping to identify wastes in processes. ♦ Management techniques for identifying cleaner alternatives to the present processes being used. Technology needs: ♦ Changeover waste reduction: Pollution prevention at source is usually the best option. ♦ Input impact reduction: For instance, the use of water or high-solid/low-solvent paints rather than solvent based paints. ♦ Process technology which has zero or low impact when not being utilised. For example, machines can be turned off without impacting on set-up times and production quality Summary Suppliers' manufacturing processes have significant environmental effects such as on energy use and waste production. Where batch processes have to be modified for a 3DayCar, wastes associated with changeovers could increase. Sub-optimal use of capital equipment such as presses, injection-moulding equipment and machine process equipment can incur greater overall energy use due to increased variation in production volume. Given an overall view of cost, more flexible production is also likely to lead to increased frequency of material supply into 1st and 2nd tier suppliers. This will increase transport impacts on the environment given the current methods of operating. 20 Confidential The following actions can be taken to reduce the environmental impact of the 3DayCar on suppliers. Operational measures should include maintaining current batch sizes and increasing the inventory buffer to cope with demand variation as necessary. (Note. Simulation to date has shown that with faster passage of more accurate production requirements, component stock in general need not increase). Suppliers have suggested that the most beneficial tools would be: total cost accounting systems to accurately identify the environmental costs, environmental management systems which allows proper consideration of environmental issues by manufacturing facilities, process mapping to identify wastes in processes and management techniques for identifying cleaner alternatives to the present processes being used. Technology should address changeover waste reduction and pollution prevention at source is usually the best option. Input impact reduction should, for instance, cover the use of water or highsolid/low-solvent paints rather than solvent based paints. Process technology which has zero or low impact when not being utilised. For example, machines which can be turned off without impacting on set-up times and production quality 21 Confidential 3.0 Inbound logistics 3.1 Transporting materials to manufacturing Further downstream towards the vehicle assembly operations, materials and parts are again subject to significant transportation. Although the parts have been consolidated and wastes such as off-cuts removed, additional packaging and the architecture of the parts (large assemblies may not provide the optimum use of trailer space) means that the weight and volume of material transported is similar to that for inbound to the supplier sites. Only road transport has been considered, but there are also considerable distances covered by sea and air. Sea transportation is characterised by infrequent delivery, a bulk nature and lower environment impacts and air is utilised by some high value parts. Impacts are therefore on the conservative side. A typical arrangement of inbound logistics is shown below. Supplier Supplier RDC Plant Supplier Overseas Parts Figure 7: Typical inbound logistics structure The environmental impact of inbound supply is measured by the distance travelled by HGVs and the consequent effect on energy usage, congestion, air emissions, and noise, etc. A UK case study of inbound logistics which encompassed distances travelled by trucks carrying components and materials found the following environmental metrics for the total industry in the UK27.5 million kilometres are driven by HGVs in one year 92 kilometres are driven per car produced. 22 Confidential 37 litres of fuel are used per car produced (using 7mpg as a consumption figure for HGVs). 3.2 Impact of frequent deliveries Although many parts and materials such as painted body parts, seats, wheels, cockpits and front-end modules already have delivery frequencies of daily or more, many are delivered less frequently than daily. The trend will be towards more frequent delivery, even hourly, and this will increase the truck distance covered by delivery vehicles. Process: Supplier logistics Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 2 5 10 As already stated, components can be grouped into different priority classes A, B or C and this will affect the delivery requirements from each supplier. Of the suppliers for the plant, around half deliver daily on average. This leaves the other half of suppliers who deliver every 2 days or less, with weekly deliveries being common for low volume standard or C class components. Largely for these suppliers, as is common with most European vehicle manufacturers, the supply of inbound components is split by region of supply, with a collection scheme for each as shown in figure 8. Within each scheme there will be a range of suppliers on different delivery cycles ranging from daily to monthly. Case study of vehicle manufacturer inbound logistics 3. Regional supply 1. JIT/ synchro supply 2. Local supply 4. North Europe VM plant 5. South Europe 6. Other Europe 7. Global Figure 8 : The organisation of inbound collection schemes for the case example Although it is clear that not all components would have to be delivered on a daily basis within 3DayCar, the more frequent the delivery, the more accurate that delivery should be to the actual requirements of the build schedule. This will be decided with a very short lead time and will vary from one day to the next. Therefore it is important to know what the impact of more frequent deliveries would be on the overall environmental equation. For this to be done precisely a component by component analysis would be necessary and this would yield results very specifically tailored to the supply chain being studied. To obtain a generic approximation, it was decided to analyse the broader level data of the 23 Confidential plant inbound logistics operations of a typical manufacturer to understand the general impact of greater frequency. By calculating the average frequency of delivery and number of suppliers on each collection scheme, average figures for supplier frequency were obtained. Of the 8 schemes studied for the VM, 4 already had daily delivery on average for all suppliers, so increases here were not assessed. In the other 4 schemes, the average frequency was calculated per supplier and then multiplied by a factor to increase the average to daily. This was multiplied by the average weekly distance travelled per journey to gain a total impact normalised per car produced (for confidentiality reasons) as shown in the table below. It should be noted that this is one case study using data which is a snapshot in time. In reality, each vehicle manufacturer will have a different supply logistics structure and the number and location of suppliers will vary, as will the volume and mix of vehicle production, but the indicative figures are of the correct magnitude. Daily delivery Current frequency of by all suppliers delivery Distance per car produced 92 (Km) 169 Litres of fuel used per car (Km) 37 69 Table 1 - Estimated increase in inbound logistics impact Table 1 shows that the total distance per year could increase from nearly 30 to around 50 million kms if all suppliers were to go to an average of daily delivery. This assumes a corresponding decrease in truck space utilisation which would be significantly less than the current figure of 70%. In reality this is a maximum possible figure and would be mitigated by better load consolidation and careful use of component stocks to reduce delivery frequency. The reduction of this impact is described in the next section. 3.3 Reducing JIT trade-offs Operational measures: In order to reduce the impact of the increase in total annual mileage driven by heavy goods vehicles within a 3DayCar, the following proposals are made. Increase the use of consolidation and movement of components for different manufacturers on the same truck. For example, where a Welsh supplier supplies parts for 2 vehicle manufacturers in the same region, such as Rover and Jaguar, the logistics company should pick up parts for both VMs and take the parts to a cross-dock. Here, a significant number of parts are split between Rover and Jaguar and line-hauled to each plant. This increase the capacity utilisation of the truck without increasing the distance travelled, thus reducing the overall mileage to supply the two VMs. Mix motor industry components with other industrial products on the same load to enable better utilisation of transport capacity. This means that milkruns would require less area to be covered to fill a truck 24 Confidential Consider rail as an alternative mode of transport. It is widely believed that rail has a lower impact per tonne of product transported. The main issues with rail tend to be: Geographical infrastructure relative to access to suppliers and VM’s Excess cost given that road has often to be used at each end of the journey (Note. This also adds time in transfers between modes of transport) The bulk nature of rail, with small loads being uneconomic. Infrequent delivery results For rail to be a viable option, further research is needed to understand how these issues can be overcome together with the following points Better reliability of service Tracing and tracking of in-transit inventory Damage limitation Technology needs: Perhaps the biggest improvement in environmental impact can be achieved through use of new technology. HGVs that conform to the next European emission standards applying from 2005 will more than compensate for the increase in emissions from greater annual mileage. Summary Operational measures: In order to reduce the impact of the increase in total annual mileage driven by heavy goods vehicles within a 3DayCar, the following proposals are made. Increase the use of consolidation and movement of components for different manufacturers on the same truck. For example, where a Welsh supplier supplies parts for 2 vehicle manufacturers in the same region, such as Rover and Jaguar, the logistics company should pick up parts for both VMs and take the parts to a cross-dock. Here, a significant number of parts are split between Rover and Jaguar and line-hauled to each plant. This increase the capacity utilisation of the truck without increasing the distance travelled, thus reducing the overall mileage to supply the two VMs. Mix motor industry components with other industrial products on the same load to enable better utilisation of transport capacity. This means that milkruns would require less area to be covered to fill a truck. Considering rail as an alternative mode of transport, it is widely believed that rail has a lower impact per tonne of product transported. The main issues with UK rail tend to be: Geographical infrastructure relative to access to suppliers and VM’s, Excess cost given that road has often to be used at each end of the journey (Note. This also adds time in transfers between modes of transport) and the bulk nature of rail, with small loads being uneconomic. Infrequent delivery results. For rail to be a viable option, further research is needed to understand how these issues can be overcome together with the following points - Better reliability of service, Tracing and tracking of in-transit inventory and damage limitation Technology needs: to address perhaps the biggest improvement in environmental impact can be achieved through use of new technology. HGVs that conform to the next European emission standards applying from 2005 will more than compensate for the increase in emissions from greater annual mileage. 25 Confidential 4.0 Vehicle Manufacturing Vehicle manufacturing as described here comprises of body assembly, vehicle painting, final assembly (trim and inspection) and, for convenience reasons, end of life vehicle recycling is included here. Body assembly, final assembly and end of life recycling are relatively unaffected by the 3DayCar and so are discussed first. Vehicle painting which is affected by the 3DayCar is then discussed in more detail. 4.1 Vehicle production – is it fit for the environment? Body Assembly Process Body Assembly has little environmental impact in comparison with other processes. While energy use is significant due to the stamping and pressing processes in the precursor stages and welding and framing in assembly, it is not generally viewed as a dirty process, the main waste being steel and other metals which are recycled. Process: Body assembly Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 2 4 8 3DayCar is not likely to have much effect on the production of vehicle bodies except in the area of variable volume demand which may mean that equipment is used in a more variable fashion over time. As long as non-utilised equipment is turned off this has little or no effect on the per unit environmental impact . Final assembly process Process: Final assembly Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 2 3 6 Building and delivering the car in three days is likely to have an impact on the final assembly process through shorter lead-times for meeting schedules and assembly as well as increasing assembly line manning to cater for any reasonable mix of vehicle sequence on the assembly track. These effects however are not likely to have a significant impact on the environment. End of Life vehicles Process: End of life Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 4 1 4 A car built and delivered in three days will not have an impact on the process of vehicle recycling unless the design of components and materials for ease of assembly is in conflict with taking them apart in disassembly and in the recycling process (Howard, 2000a). There may also be opportunities in the outbound logistics operation to take into account end of life vehicles to increase scale and scope for logistics schemes which may reduce the logistics impacts for a 3-day car as well as the logistics impacts (and cost) of end of life vehicle collection and dismantling (ECG 2001). 26 Confidential Vehicle painting As shown in previous 3DayCar work, vehicle painting could be a serious inhibitor due to process reliability problems as well as environmental concerns (Howard, 2000b). There are three types of paint: solvent-based; water-borne; and powder. The first two types include volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that the US Clean Air Act and the EU VOC Directive aim to restrict. From an environment point of view, there should be a movement from solvent through water towards powder based paints Emissions have already dropped by 80% since 1975, but the costs of the sophisticated pollution controls necessary to do this have been extremely high. When the paint dries the solvent evaporates and there is a polymerization of the pigment: the small molecules bind into larger molecules. This turns the solvent into volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which are known to cause respiratory problems’ especially when they transform to ozone in the atmosphere. Despite the improvements, VOC emissions are still a major cause for concern and nearly all vehicle manufacturers report their performance in terms of Figure 9. VOCs produced per vehicle / kg 7 VOC / Kg 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 BMW DCX Vauxhall PSA Figure 9: Showing typical average VOC pollution in kilograms per vehicle - based on environmental reports for 1999/2000 There are three coats applied to a car in the painting process. The more solvent used in these paint preparations the greater is the environmental impact. The bottom layer is the primer surface, which can be any of the three types (powder, water- or solvent-borne). The colour coat is the centre material in the sandwich of the surface of a painted vehicle and can be either water or solvent borne. The top surface is the clear coat, which can also be one of the three types, although water-borne clear coat is unlikely to be particularly widespread. There is possibly only one plant using a water-borne clear coat in Europe. This is a GM facility in what was once East Germany (Vasilash, 1996). Water-borne coatings require stringent control of both the temperature and humidity, much more so than solvent-based coatings. Unless a new paint plant is built, it is likely that water-borne clear coats will be the exception not the rule for the present. Paint managers have stated that an ideal combination could be water-based primer; waterbased base coat; super high solids-clear coat. Totally solvent-free powder primers are available, and powder clearcoats are on the way with BMW already using them. Instead of adding waste to the floor, powder overspray falls to the bottom of spray booths like talcum powder and is collected and reused, thus reducing pollution very considerably. 27 Confidential In an "ideal" lean production 3DayCar scenario, the capability of painting bodies in a batch size of one would be required. However, there are purging issues when changing colour coats that must be addressed. Paint lines and guns must not contain residues from the previous colour at batch changeover and this takes time, affecting productivity and increasing environmental impact. The trend has been towards 'block' painting 20 - 200 vehicles of the same colour2 & 3. But 3DayCar research shows that the average batch size is only 12 in our sample of 5 paint plants. This is still far too large for 3DayCar unless a large painted body store is available. Process: Vehicle painting Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 5 3 15 4.2 Impact on the paint process The vehicle manufacturer paint process is the only area which is likely to be associated with negative impacts from implementing a 3DayCar. The following section will describe why this is the case. In a 3DayCar, other than the requirement to paint customer ordered colours for each day, which will be sequenced on an hourly basis, the priority is to build cars in batches for efficient outbound logistics distribution and to comply with component restrictions etc. before considering paint batches. While 80% of the bodies will be painted in only 20% of the colour range, the last 20% of orders will be a mixture of all other colours of which there are likely to be 10 or more. While the popular colours such as red or silver can probably be painted in reasonable batch sizes, the less popular colours will need to have the capability of being painted in batches of 1 to ensure the 3-day car timing and scheduling flexibility. There is some argument over the use of a painted body store (PBS)4 in order to solve unreliability and batching of colour issues in the paint shop. The PBS stocks painted car bodies but must hold all the possible variants of painted bodies to ensure final assembly is supplied in line with each customer order requirement. This potentially large store is considered to be waste and improvements in process and flexibility are required to mitigate the need for such a store. Therefore, the impact of 3DayCar would be to reduce paint batch sizes from the survey average of 12 cars to probably around 4 cars. Improvements in the process are thus still required since using more solvent will increase the pollution from the paint shop. 2 Gary S. Vasilash Automotive Production, April 1996 v108 n4 p38(4) Painting: a primer of the state of the technology. (car and truck painting)(Cover Story). 3 http://www.afonline.com/snew.html 4 Also known as an Automated Storage and Retrieval Bank (ASR Bank) 28 Confidential 0.60 The impact of batch size on emissions Purge solvent emissions - kg/car 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Average batch size Figure 10: Impact of reducing paint batch sizes due to purging solvent increase For a typical paint shop, there is an average emission of 4kg (see figure 10) and an average usage of purging solvent of 0.5kg for each purging cycle5. If the average batch size for paint were to drop from the current 12 cars to 4 cars as might be expected for a 3day car, the amount of purging solvent needed would increase by 3 times. If the average batch size were to reach 1 then the purging solvent use would increase by over 10 times. In comparison to the total solvent emissions this is significant enough to review emission authorisation and so to avoid this strategies for reducing solvent emissions should be implemented. Due to the highly specific and localised nature of assembly plant air pollution it is not possible to estimate the total impacts of a generic facility since it depends on the following factors: • Exact solvent emission reduction equipment (Such as thermal oxidisers) in place • Exact type of paint material used - high solid, water based, powder slurry, powder coat • Average batch size – the nature of the purging process and the quantity of solvent used. • Vehicle area sprayed - m3 and total Kg solvent used • Location and sensitivity of local residential areas • Prevailing local climate conditions 4.3 Better air quality from vehicle manufacturing The ideal process would be one with the lowest VOC content since this is the area of greatest impact both overall and from a 3DayCar production process point of view. The following chart (Figure 11) shows by how much an ideal process would reduce the impacts. This type of strategy is comparable to that taken by BMW when replacing or upgrading paint plants. 5 From interviews with paint plant engineers 29 Confidential Figure 11: Typical emissions from comparative strategies on painting, (Boustead et al., 2000)6 The graph shows the impact on different types of emission7 from a paint plant. In addition alternative body construction methods also some possible opportunities to reducing the impacts of car body colouring (Howard, 2000c). In mould painted panels have demonstrated less environmental impact compared with painted panels (Kelly et al., 1997). Summary The major impact due to the 3DayCar on vehicle manufacturing results from changes in the vehicle paint process. While body and final assembly processes present few environmental problems, the paint process presents the greatest challenges. The impact of the 3DayCar is likely to be in terms of the demand for a more responsive process to paint cars as they are required for customer order. Even with a painted body store, individual orders for coloured bodies will be required so that the average batch size for paint colours will reduce. Solvent is used between each batch to clear paint delivery lines and this releases volatile organic compounds on evaporation which are highly detrimental to the environment. As batch sizes reduce the solvent use increases and so the impact increases as purging solvent emission could increase by 3 times. This can be mitigated by introducing new technologies such as water or powder-based primer, base and clear coats. Alternatively, maintaining large paint batches will require a large painted body store to de-couple the paint shop from customer orders being sequenced down the final assembly track. 6 SP1=solvent primer, WB1=water basecoat, SC1=solvent clearcoat, PP1=powder primer, PP2=powder primer, PC2=powder clearcoat 7 CO = carbon monoxide, NOx = oxides of nitrogen, Sox = oxides of sulphur, PM = particulate matter and VOC = volatile organic compounds 30 Confidential 5.0 Outbound logistics 5.1 Impacts on the customer's doorstep Most of the results in this section have been previously reported in the 3DayCar Logistics Report, so data will not be repeated here apart from some of the key charts and a summary (Holweg and Williams, 2000, Holweg et al., 2001). Given an average of 100km per car delivered to dealers in the UK, this means that an annual production of 200,000 cars would result in 17 million miles driven by HGVs in the UK from one plant. UK production actually equates to 1 million vehicles which means that the total distance could reach 100 million miles driven by HGV due to car distribution This equates to about 44 litres of fuel per car delivered8, almost twice that for inbound delivery of components to a UK plant. Plant Plant DC DC// Compound Compound Dealer Dealer 3-4 days Dealer Dealer Dealer Dealer Figure 12: Typical outbound logistics structure 5.2 Effects of shorter delivery lead time Key facts One of the key environmental impacts of transport is global warming. This can be expressed in terms of the contribution of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Moving from the current 3-4 day delivery to 1-day delivery means a significant increase in CO2 production as shown in figure 13 below. This represents a shift from 176,000 to 197,000 tonnes of CO2 produced each year from vehicle distribution in the UK. 8 This equates to about 43% of the total transport costs. 31 Confidential Total UK CO2 increase with 1-day delivery 200 195 CO2/T '000s 190 185 180 175 170 165 Current One day delivery Figure 13: Global warming potential of vehicle distribution in the UK Recent European research into the external costs of transport have produced figures per truck kilometre of the impact on human health, ecology and global warming (Bickel et al., 1997). For the 3DayCar this total impact is summarised in the following chart (Fig 14). Total environment costs £8 Total environmental costs per car for 1-day delivery Non-urban kms £7 Urban/inter-urban kms £6 £5 £4 £3 £2 £1 £0 Current One day delivery Figure 14: The 'per car' environmental cost to society of vehicle delivery The costs are seen to increase by around £2 or 30% per car produced. Process: Vehicle delivery Process Impact 3DayCar Impact Total Impact Score 2 5 10 32 Confidential 5.3 Customer delivery - not a green compromise! Technology needs Vehicle technology The predominance of vehicle deliveries being in urban areas means that low emission technology will have the greatest benefit (compared with operational improvements - with 85% improvement possible) in reducing the impact of pollution since the population is most sensitive there. Such technology includes fuel efficient tractor units, exhaust gas recirculation units, particulate traps and dual fuel engine capability. These types of technologies attract certain compensatory grants in the UK, for example the powershift programme and the green fuel challenge. Information technology In order to maximise utilisation of capacity there are many opportunities in the field of collaborative arrangements with other players, both between logistics companies and between various uses of transporters such as for direct delivery of new vehicles, dealer transfers, used cars, and vehicle recycling. The potential of e-commerce and open access trading systems would allow a combination of activities to be sold as slots on transporters for a certain geographic area, and particularly increase backload capacity usage after the initial load has be delivered (Waller and Howard, 2001). Operational needs As detailed in previous reports there are numerous opportunities to reduce the impact of shorter delivery lead-times. These include multi-franchise movement of vehicles, diversifying the transporter fleet, enabling 24 hour delivery and rationalisation of import/export ports and are explained in other reports (Holweg et al., 2001). Summary Vehicle distribution will be affected by a 3DayCar due to the requirement for all vehicles to be delivered in 24 hours. Delivering cars in one day from a UK factory to dealers in the UK leads to more dealers being delivered to on each load, with consequently greater distances travelled in total.. 3DayCar research suggests this can increase truck distances by 30% with a corresponding increase in fuel use. A combination of improving truck technologies and operational changes such as multi-franchise delivery, a greater mix of transporter capacities utilising smaller trucks, more planning time and integration with other vehicle flows such as end of life vehicles or used cars, will decrease this impact to less than a 10% increase. Additionally the need for large vehicle holding compounds will be removed and land use impacts improved. 33 Confidential 6.0 3DayCar impacts: the vehicle life cycle perspective Putting the impacts of 3DayCar into perspective involves extensive reading of papers such as those in the following references.(Chul Kim et al., 2000, Gibson, 2000, Harsch, 2000, MacLean et al., 2000). Looking at the main life cycle stages and ranking them in order of the importance of the impact of 3DayCar, it is possible to take a view on which impacts should be addressed first. The following table ranks the processes in descending order, the highest score indicating the greatest impact on the environment. PROCESS Delphi score (1-5) 5 3DayCar score (1-5) 3 1 Vehicle painting 2 Metal finishing 4 3 4 Vehicle delivery 2 5 3 Inbound logistics 2 5 5 Supplier logistics 3 3 6 Plastic moulding 3 3 7 Body assembly 2 4 8 Final assembly 1 5 9 End of life vehicle 5 1 10 Foundry - Sand casting 4 1 11 Foundry - Die casting 4 1 12 Machining 1 4 13 Metal Fabrication 1 2 14 Plastic fabrication 2 1 SCORE 15 12 10 10 9 9 8 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 From this table it is suggested that the areas needing first attention will be vehicle painting, metal finishing, and then logistics, to ensure that the environmental impacts associated with a 3DayCar are minimised. 34 Confidential 7.0 Future issues within the 3DayCar scenarios The table below outline the main environmental features of build-to-order processes from the perspective of 3 scenarios. Although the 3DayCar has been discussed in general in the previous sections it is important to consider the possible implementation stages For definition of attributes of 3DayCar scenarios refer to simulation work in the 3DayCar. Process Production strategy Industry structure Vehicle delivery Pre3Daycar Build to order and some locate and amend to order Supply chain As now - but more distance due to locate to order (16) 3DayCar Build-to-order Radical 3DayCar Build to order at local assembly plants Supply network Consolidation and info means impacts up 5% (15) Vehicle painting As now (5) Supplier logistics As now (4) Inbound logistics As now (4) More frequent delivery needed (10) Metal finishing As now (4) Plastic moulding As now (4) As now but Smaller batches/ higher stock (12) Smaller batches/ higher stock (9) Body assembly As now (4) (8) Final assembly As now (1) (5) End of life vehicle As now (5) As now (5) Foundry - Sand casting Foundry - Die casting Machining Metal Fabrication Plastic fabrication Total score As now (4) As now (4) Industry network Low delivery impact due to local assembly - as local build and delivery less intercontinental transport (12) In-mould colour panels - no paint shop - reduced VOC local emissions (4) Highly consolidated delivery to plants from regional hubs - more effective logistics and late configuration at hubs more T/km - (8) Highly consolidated delivery to plants from regional hubs - Modules & kits - high freq. & efficiency so more T/km (8) Only base finish - no colour - poss. low emissions & resource efficient (4) Greater % of moulding, plus in colour - energy up slightly, some emissions, no solvents (8) Local kit assembly - As now, more manual(?) - (3) Modular assembly - as now (1) Re-use of kit parts and modules - possible refurb/re-marketing possible (4) Same as now (4) As now (4) As now (2) As now (1) As now (1) 59 As now (4) Smaller batches ?(4) No impact (2) No impact (1) Same as now (4) At supplier sites (2) At regional hubs (1) At regional hubs (1) Maintain batch size through PBS impact same (10) More frequent possible (9) 99 35 63 Confidential The three scenarios in the table above represent a possible route from current practices through delivery of a 3DayCar within the auspices of current supply chain production configuration, to the ultimate of a radical 3DayCar with the lowest environmental impacts due to a reconfiguration of the process. The pre-3DayCar represents a slightly lower environmental impact because paintshop batches are not affected and the delivery leadtimes not reduced. In this case, 3-day order to delivery is not possible on a completely stockless basis. The 3DayCar scenario is in line with the process described within this report and is thought of as the most feasible process framework at present. The radical 3DayCar scenario shows how environmental impacts could be further reduced through changes in logistics system design (location of suppliers, locations of satellite plants and location of vehicle assembly plants) and vehicle manufacturer car colouring processes. The radical 3DayCar option requires significant changes to vehicle designs, including greater use of modularity and standardisation in vehicle systems and body structures, including spaceframes and plastic coloured panels (Williams, 2001). For all cars to be built to order in a short lead time, smaller local assembly plants in each market or region are necessary. However, breaking current economies of scales would require a re-think in vehicle concept and design. The following chart suggests a possible scenario for the radical 3DayCar. Possible Radical 3DayCar scenario Enables BTO of most vehicles in each market. Using multi-model brand plants multi-brand model (e.g. MPV or SUV) modules and large supplier hubs Multi-brand/model supply delivery Supplier Hub Multi-model brand assembly Multi-brand model assembly Capacity per plant would need to be 250,000 unit / yr Figure 15 - possible arrangement of assembly plants, supplier parks and supplier hubs In this scenario it is possible to imagine a number of vehicle manufacturing sites in each market which are served by local supplier parks. These plants could either offer assembly of many models for one brand or single model types (such as minivans, MPVs or SUV) for 36 Confidential a number of brands rather like AutoEuropa for the Galaxy/Sharan/Alhambra vehicles. The supplier parks, as now, can late configure parts, modules and systems to the customer order in a very short lead-time. These supplier parks would be served in turn by large supplier hubs (or industrial parks) which would be the main sourcing point for the region or market for all automotive components. Ideally, these should all be located in one place within each region or, practically, at as few locations as possible. Rail distribution would then be far more feasible due to the volume of delivery to the supplier parks around assembly plants. Serving a number of plants from one site would also allow changes in volume for one brand to be buffered by production for other brands so that sole supplier implications (relying on only one customer for volume) does not adversely effect economies of scale. The exact configuration of the radical 3DayCar scenario needs to be simulated to understand the benefits operationally and environmentally and further work in the 3DayCar programme will address some of these opportunities. 37 Confidential Appendix A Environmental priorities survey Automotive sector processes - environmental implications This is a simplistic and subjective scoring of the environmental impacts of selected industrial processes in the automotive sector. Please take no more than 5 minutes to complete the table. It is an 'expert opinion-based survey' and not a detailed analytical comparison. Participation ensures you receive a copy of the final report. Please score these processes in order of the importance of their environmental impact. 1= not important (no regulations/no costs incurred), 5 = Very important (regulation/high costs incurred) Process Score (1-5) Supply 1) Foundry - Sand casting Supply 2) Foundry - Die casting Supply 3) Metal Fabrication (cutting, slitting, not forging etc) Supply 4) Machining (gears, transmissions) Supply 5) Metal finishing (treating/coating) Supply 6) Plastic moulding and coating Supply 7) Plastic fabrication (cutting, shaping) Log 1) Logistics into suppliers (from 2nd/3rd tiers) Log 2) Logistics into VM (from all suppliers - local/global) VM 1) Vehicle Body assembly (framing, welding) VM 2) Vehicle painting VM 3) Vehicle final assembly 38 Confidential Log 3) Vehicle delivery - factory to customer (incl. Global distribution) Dis 1) End of life vehicle - collection, dismantling & recycling This data will be averaged across a number of respondents. Individual responses will not be used. The ranks will be weighted according to the possible impacts of 'build-to-order' on the process. Please complete the table then email/fax back on [email protected] 01225 323398. Many thanks for your time. 39 / Statistics of the sample for the restricted Delphi survey Descriptive Statistics N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation SANDCAST 6 3 5 4.00 .63 DIECAST 6 2 5 3.50 1.22 METALFAB 6 1 3 1.67 .82 MACHNG 6 1 4 2.33 1.21 METALFIN 6 1 5 3.50 1.64 PLASMOLD 6 1 4 2.83 1.33 PLASFAB 6 1 3 1.83 .75 LOGSUP 6 1 4 2.67 1.37 LOGVM 6 1 4 2.33 1.21 BODYASSM 6 1 2 1.67 .52 PAINTING 6 4 5 4.67 .52 FINASSM 6 1 3 1.83 .98 LOGDLR 6 1 4 2.50 1.38 ELV 6 1 5 3.83 1.60 Valid N (listwise) 6 Statistics Confidential SANDCAST DIECAST METALFAB MACHNG METALFIN PLASMOLD PLASFAB LOGSUP LOGVM BODYASSM PAINTING FINASSM N LOGDLR ELV Valid 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Missing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mean 4.00 3.50 1.67 2.33 3.50 2.83 1.83 2.67 2.33 1.67 4.67 1.83 2.50 3.83 Median 4.00 4.00 1.50 2.50 4.00 3.00 2.00 3.00 2.50 2.00 5.00 1.50 2.50 4.50 Mode 4 4 1 1 4 4 2 1 1 2 5 1 1 5 Std. .63 1.22 .82 1.21 1.64 1.33 .75 1.37 1.21 .52 .52 .98 1.38 1.60 Variance .40 1.50 .67 1.47 2.70 1.77 .57 1.87 1.47 .27 .27 .97 1.90 2.57 Range 2 3 2 3 4 3 2 3 3 1 1 2 3 4 Deviation a Multiple modes exist. The smallest value is shown The criteria used to assess the impact of the 3daycar were as follows 1 - No impact 2 - Less time to plan operations 3 - Less time and more volume variability - mostly covered by current stock objectives 4 - Less time and more volume variability - must modify process (batch sizes, production and delivery frequencies) 5 - Strongest impact on the process due to volume variation, mix variation and less time to plan operations 41 References Bickel, P., Schmidt, S., Krewitt, W. and Friedrich, R. (1997) External Costs of Transport in ExternE, European Commission, Brussels, Boustead, I., Yaros, B. R. and Papasavva (2000) Eco-labels and eco-indices: do they make sense?, Proceedings of the total life cycle conference, Detroit, USA, April 2000 Chul Kim, H., Keoleian, G. A., Spatari, S. and Bulkley, J. W. 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