Schmalenbach Business Review ◆ Vol. 54 ◆ April 2002 ◆ pp. 136 – 147 Frank Richter* SIMPLIFIED DISCOUNTING RULES, VARIABLE GROWTH, AND LEVERAGE** ABSTRACT It was shown earlier that unconditional expected cash flows can be discounted at a constant risk-adjusted discount rate if these cash flows follow a multiplicative binomial process with a constant growth rate (“simplified discounting rule”). This paper extends this analysis to the case of variable growth rates of expected cash flows. The earlier analysis was also based on the assumption of all-equity-financing. The impact of a financing strategy based on deterministic leverage ratios is included in this paper as well. It analyses the conditions to apply the weighted average cost of capital as a discount rate. The paper reflects the results of Modigliani/Miller (1963), Miles/Ezzell (1980), and Löffler (1998) visà-vis the background of this theory and discusses issues of practical application. JEL-Classification: G32. 1 INTRODUCTION In a recent paper various simplified discounting rules were discussed that value uncertain cash flow streams based on their unconditional expectation with a constant risk-adjusted discount rate 1. However, the model presented there is restricted to constant growth rates of unconditional expected cash flows and a financing strategy that includes only equity. This current paper aims to extend the earlier analysis in both dimensions: It presents a model with time-varying growth rates that includes the earlier model as a special case. In addition, debt financing is introduced on the basis of not necessarily constant, but deterministic, leverage ratios, defined as the market value of debt divided by the market value of debt and equity. Sufficient conditions for the application of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) as a means to cover the tax implications of the suggested financing strategy will be analysed. * Prof. Dr. Frank Richter, Institute for Mergers & Acquisitions University Witten/Herdecke, e-mail: [email protected]. ** I would like to thank the referee for helpful comments. 1 This approach is called a simplified discounting rule because it takes into account the stochastic process of the uncertain cash flow stream only on the basis of its unconditional expectations. There is no need, e.g., to enumerate the binomial model by valuing unconditional expectations at all nodes of the tree if the conditions for the simplified discounting rule are fulfilled. See Richter (2001). 136 sbr 54 (2/2002) Discounting Rules The paper begins with assumptions on the structure of future cash flows and the fundamental theorem used to value this stream. Then the analysis examines a single cash flow in a time setting with just one period. Next, I extend the analysis to value a cash flow stream in a multiperiod setting, which takes into account the history of the cash flow stream. Thus, the derived model is able to include conditional expectations of future cash flows. Issues of practical application are addressed in the last paragraph. 2 BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND DEFINITIONS (A) BINOMIAL MODEL The binomial model is characterized by the following process for future cash flows: { C̃ t ∈ C̃ t −1u t;C̃ t −1d t } with 2 : t = 1,2,KT. (1) I assume ut ≥ 1 and 0 < dt ≤ ut. Thus, future cash flows are certain only if ut = dt = 1 for all t. P and Q are two probability measures that can be applied to the cash flow process. This cash flow process is called a martingale under P if gt = put + (1 – p)dt = 1, for all t. A submartingale (respectively, supermartingale) describes a process with gt > 1 (or gt < 1, respectively) 3. These processes are characterized by deterministic growth rates and conditional expectations, i.e. ~ |F ] = C ~ g. EP[C t t −1 t−1 t I use the binomial model here because it can easily be generalized, e.g., by transforming it into diffusion models in continuous time provided appropriate growth factors. Furthermore, it is probably the simplest model for analysing the valuation of uncertain cash flow streams, although it includes important features such as the change in expectations based on the arrival of new information (embedded in realized cash flows). Finally, it can be applied in practice without any further analytical knowledge than is needed for a discounted cash flow analysis. (B) FUNDAMENTAL VALUATION THEOREM The measure Q is defined as an equivalent probability measure to P. Doing so does not mean that the probabilities p and q are identical, but rather suggests that an event, which occurs with some probability under P, also occurs under Q. The equivalent probability measure Q is defined such that it transforms the conditional 2 t = 0 symbolises the present and C0 ≥ 0 is the known non-negative cash flow of the period that has just ended. 3 See e.g. Irle (1998), p. 44; Karatzas/Shreve (1991), p. 11; Duffie (1988), p. 135. sbr 54 (2/2002) 137 F. Richter expected value of an uncertain cash flow in T (given its history or filtration in T − 1) 4 into its economic value in T 5: VT [C̃T ] = E Q [C̃T | FT−1 ]. (2) The expectation under Q is called the certainty equivalent of the uncertain cash flow. Investors value an uncertain cash flow with the certainty equivalent of some amount equal to a certain cash flow of the same amount. The probability q that is used to quantify the conditional expectation under Q shall be called “certainty equivalent probability” 6. The risk-free rate is used to discount certainty equivalents obtained by applying the certainty equivalent probability in quantifying the expectation: (3) Vt [C̃T ] = E Q [C̃T | Ft ](1 + rf ) −(T− t) . Equation (3) serves as the fundamental valuation theorem for the following analysis. 3 VALUATION (A) ALL OF SINGLE CASH FLOWS EQUITY FINANCING The index “e” indicates unlevered values (in the sense of “equity financed only”, “without any leverage”), unlevered cash flows and unlevered cost of capital. The fundamental valuation theorem of course applies to unlevered cash flow streams. The first step is to use the theorem in a single period setting in order to determine unlevered cost of equity 7: ! Vte−1 = E Q [C̃et | Ft −1 ](1 + rf ) −1 = E P [C̃ et ](1 + rte ) −1 . (4) Inserting the structure of the cash flow process yields: (1 + rte ) = x t (1 + rf ) with: xt = pu t + (1 − p)d t . qu t + (1 − q)d t (5) 4 See Duffie (1988), pp. 130 – 137, for an introduction to conditional expectations and the concept of filtration. 5 This valuation theorem is also the basis for the so-called “real options” approach. See, e.g., Brennan/Schwartz (1985). 6 I suggest distinguishing between the measure Q as used here and the so-called equivalent martingale measure used in the context of option pricing theory. The probability q to value a cash flow stream can be different from the probability used to value options. 7 The expectation under P without reference to a filtration indicates unconditional expectations. 138 sbr 54 (2/2002) Discounting Rules The certainty equivalent and the expectation under P differ only by a non-stochastic factor, xt, which can be used to “gross up” the risk-free rate to obtain the appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate. I call this property of the model the “deterministic growth relation” that determines xt as the risk adjustment. (B) DETERMINISTIC LEVERAGE RATIO The levered value, as indicated by the index “l”, consists of the unlevered value plus the value of tax savings due to interest expense under a simple tax regime that prefers debt financing rather than equity financing: Vtl = Vte + Vtτ . (6) Under the assumption of a fixed leverage ratio the value of the tax savings is: Vtτ−1 = E Q [τrf l t −1 Vtl−1 | Ft −1 ](1 + rf ) −1 . (7) Combining expressions shows that the unlevered value equals the levered value times a non-stochastic factor, yt: Vtl−1 = Vte−1y −1 t with: yt = 1 − τrf l t −1 . 1 + rf (8) I call this property the “deterministic leverage relation” that determines yt as the financing adjustment. Using this property in combination with the deterministic growth relation leads to the following expression for the levered value: Vtl−1 = E P [ C̃ t ] . (1 + rf )x t y t (9) The interesting question is now whether the multiplicative adjustment of the riskfree rate still obtains in a multiperiod setting. But before I come to that, I analyse the discount rate, which reflects both the risk adjustment and the financing adjustment. (C) WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL Inserting the expressions for x and y leads to the discount rate: 1 + rte τrf l t −1 1 − 1 + rf 1 + rf = (1 + rte ) (1 − τ * l t −1 ) with: τ * = τrf / (1 + rf ) ≡ 1 + wacc t . (1 + rf )x t y t = (1 + rf ) sbr 54 (2/2002) (10) 139 F. Richter This formula can be rewritten to obtain the so-called “textbook formula” presented by Modigliani/Miller (1963): wacc t = rtl (1 − l t −1 ) + rf (1 − τ)l t −1 . (11) The levered cost of capital is calculated under the assumptions made as follows: rtl = rte + (rte − rf )(l − τ * ) l t −1 . l − l t −l (12) Notice that this is the formula for the cost of equity that follows from the analysis of Miles/Ezzell (1980) and Löffler (1998). These formulas require the deterministic financing and the deterministic growth relations to hold. (D) IMPLICATION FOR THE VALUATION OF THE TAX SHIELD The value of the tax shield is the difference between the values of the levered firm and the unlevered firm. Nevertheless, I apply the fundamental valuation theorem to provide further insight into the implicit assumptions of (10) and (11) – (12): Vtτ = E Q [τrf D t | Ft ](1 + rf ) −1. (13) Given the filtration Ft, all variables with the index t are known at that point in time. The interest payment and the tax shield in period t + 1 depend on the debt value Dt, which is known in t. Thus, the value of the tax shield in t is the tax rate applied to the interest payment, discounted at the risk-free rate: Vtτ = τrf D t (1 + rf ) −1 = τ * D t . (14) As can be derived from (8), τ *Dt is indeed the difference between the levered and the unlevered firm value, because Dt = ltV tl. 4 VALUATION (A) ALL OF CASH FLOW STREAMS EQUITY FINANCING In a multiperiod setting, the unlevered cost of equity is defined as: ! V0e = ∑ Tt =1E Q [ C̃et | F0 ](1 + rf ) −t = ∑ Tt =1E P [ C̃et ](1 + R et ) −t . (15) To isolate the unlevered cost of equity, start at the end of the planning horizon at t = T and assume VTe = VTl = VTτ = 0. These values exclude the final cash flow paid out in that period. For the unlevered value in the previous period one gets: e ṼT−1 = E Q [ C̃eT | FT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1. 140 (16) sbr 54 (2/2002) Discounting Rules Moving backwards in time yields the value at T − 2 8: e e ṼT−2 = E Q [ C̃ eT−1 + ṼT−1 | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) −1 (17) = E Q [ C̃ eT−1 + C̃ eT (1 + rf ) −1 | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) −1 = E Q [ C̃ eT−1 | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) −1 + E Q [ C̃eT | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) −2 . Continuing the procedure of backward iteration leads to the present value of the unlevered cash flow stream: V0e = ∑ Tt =1E Q [ C̃et | F0 ](1 + rf ) −t . (18) Notice that the present value at t = 0 is not a random variable. It is, as can be seen by the filtration F0, the unconditional expectation of the future cash flow stream under the equivalent probability measure Q, discount at the risk-free rate. Next, use the deterministic growth relation and again the law of iterated expectations: E P [ C̃eT ] = C̃ eT−1g T . (19) Taking expectations on both sides and expanding the new expression yields: E P [ C̃eT ] = E P [ C̃ eT−1 ]g T = C̃ eT−2 g T g T−1 . (20) Continuing this procedure until the present leads to: E P [ C̃eT ] = Ce0 ∏ Tt =1g t . (21) Note that the unconditional expectation of the future cash flow stream is not a random variable. With that, define the auxiliary function Xt as follows: Xt = E P [ C̃et ] E Q [ C̃et | F0 ] = t ∏ i=1(pu i + (1 − p)d i ) t = ∏ i=1 xi . t ∏ i=1(qu i + (1 − q)d i ) (22) Given that neither the unconditional expectation of future cash flows under P is random, nor is the conditional expectation under Q with respect to the filtration F0, the multiperiod growth relation is deterministic as well. Thus, I can rewrite the valuation function as: V0e = ∑ Tt =1E Q [ C̃et | F0 ](1 + rf ) −t (23) −t = ∑ Tt =1E P [ C̃et ]X −1 t (1 + rf ) . 8 We use the law of iterated conditional expectations; see, e.g., Duffie (1988), p. 84. sbr 54 (2/2002) 141 F. Richter Based on that the multiperiod unlevered cost of equity is determined: 1 + R et = X t (1 + rf ) . t (24) This is the extension of the simplified discounting rule no. 3 in Richter (2001), which is based on constant growth. g = constant implies Xt = xt. Using this expression in (24) shows that if the growth rate is constant, so too is the unlevered cost of equity. (B) DETERMINISTIC NON-CONSTANT LEVERAGE RATIO Lets proceed as in the case of pure equity financing by using the recursive approach, which begins with the value at the end of the planning period. However, here both the unlevered cash flow and the tax savings due to debt financing have to be taken into account. The levered firm value in T is zero, the value in T − 1 is: l VT−1 = E Q [ C̃eT + τrf D T−1 | FT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1 (25) = E Q [ C̃eT | FT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1 + τrf D T−1 (1 + rf ) −1 l = E Q [ C̃eT | FT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1 + τrf l T−1VT−1 (1 + rf ) −1 l ⇒ VT−1 = E Q [ C̃eT | FT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1 y −1 T . In period T − 2 we have: l l VT−2 = E Q [ C̃ eT−1 + VT−1 + τrf D T−2 | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) −1 (26) −1 l = E Q [ C̃ eT−1 + C̃ eT (1 + rf ) −1 y −1 + τrf l T−2 VT−2 (1 + rf ) −1 T | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) −2 −1 l e −1 ⇒ VT−2 = E Q [ C̃ eT−1 | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) −1 y −1 T−1 + E Q [ C̃ T | FT−2 ](1 + rf ) y T−1 y T . Continuing this procedure until the present yields the following valuation formula 9: V0l = ∑ Tt =1E Q [ C̃et | F0 ] 1 (1 + rf ) t Yt t t with : Yt = ∏ i=1 y i = ∏ i=1 (1 − τ * l i−1 ). (27) Using the deterministic growth relation implies immediately: V0l = ∑ Tt =1 E P [ C̃et ] (1 + rf ) t X t Yt . (28) 9 This adjustment was suggested earlier in Richter (1998), p. 383, formula (11). However, it did not have the foundation we have now. 142 sbr 54 (2/2002) Discounting Rules The auxiliary function X transforms the F0-expectation under Q into the unconditional expectation under P. Once this is done, I have unconditional expectations for the cash flow that must be discounted at the cost of capital. The tax shield can be taken into account using the auxiliary function Y. In a final step, the auxiliary function Z is used in combination with the risk and the financing adjustments to establish the main result of this paper: V0l = C e0 ∑ Tt =1 Zt (1 + rf ) −t X t Yt (29) with : pu i + (1 − p)d i qu i + (1 − q)d i Xt t = ∏ i=1 Yt t = ∏ i=1 (1 − τ * l i−1 ) “the financing adjustment” Zt t = ∏ i=1 (pu i + (1 − p)d i ) “the growth adjustment”. “the risk adjustment” By comparing X and Z it becomes clear that the growth expectation under P is not needed, because terms cancel out. Therefore the valuation formula simplifies: V0l = C e0 ∑ Tt =1 Z ′t (1 + rf ) −t Yt with : t Z ′t = ∏ i=1 (qu i + (1 − q)d i ) (30) “the combined growth and risk adjustment”. Formula (30) uses a risk-adjusted growth rate to generate certainty equivalents, which in turn must be discounted at the risk-free rate. (C) WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL The risk-free rate can also be combined with the risk and financing adjustments to obtain the weighted average cost of capital similar to the single-period case: V0l = C e0 ∑ Tt =1 Zt (1 + WACC t ) t (31) with: 1 + WACC t = t X t Yt (1 + rf ) “the combined risk and financing adjustment”. The discussion around the application of WACC has become quite sophisticated. On the one hand, it is impressive to see that the structure of the Modigliani/Miller formula still applies, if adjusted for time-dependent leverage ratios and for τ* instead of τ. This conclusion becomes evident if (24) and (31) are rewritten as follows: sbr 54 (2/2002) 143 F. Richter (1 + R et ) t = X t (1 + rf ) t = ∏ ti=1 x i (1 + rf ) = ∏ ti=1(1 + rie ) (32) (1 + WACC t ) t = X t Yt (1 + rf ) t = ∏ ti=1(1 + rie )(1 − τ * l i−1 ) = ∏ ti=1(1 + wacci ). On the other hand, implicit and restrictive assumptions become transparent, such as the deterministic growth and leverage relations. (D) IMPLICATION FOR THE VALUATION OF THE TAX SHIELD Next, I clarify the implication of the multiperiod WACC approach for the value of the tax savings. In period T, the value of the tax shield is zero, because no interest payments will follow afterwards. In the previous period I have: τ VT−1 = E Q [τrf DT−1 | FT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1 = τrf DT−1 (1 + rf ) −1 . (33) This result is consistent with the result obtained in the single period case. Now, in the previous period the tax shield of period T − 1, V τT − 1, must be taken into account as well as: −1 τ τ VT− 2 = E Q [τrf DT− 2 + VT−1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) (34) τ = τrf DT− 2 (1 + rf ) −1 + E Q [VT−1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) −1 . To transform the remaining expectation under Q into an expectation under P, I make use of the fact that the value of the tax shield equals the value of the levered value minus the value of the unlevered value: τ l e E Q [VT−1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) −1 = E Q [VT−1 − VT−1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) −1 (35) e −1 = (y −1 T−1 − 1)E Q [VT−1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) −1 e = (y −1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) −1 . T−1 − 1)E Q [C̃ T (1 + rf ) As before, the deterministic growth relation is used to obtain the expectation under P. Start on the right-hand side before imposing the same manipulation to the left-hand side: −1 −2 −1 e e (y −1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) −1 = (y −1 T−1 − 1)E Q [C̃ T (1 + rf ) T−1 − 1)E P [C̃ T ](1 + rf ) x T−1 . (36) The factor xT−1− 1 transforms the right-hand side of the equation into an expectation under P. So it does the same with the left-hand side, because the uncertain variables differ only by a non-stochastic factor, which is (yT−1− 1−1)(1 + rf )−1. Thus, the value of the tax shield can be transformed as follows: 144 sbr 54 (2/2002) Discounting Rules −1 τ τ τ e E Q [VT−1 | FT− 2 ](1 + rf ) −1 = E P [VT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1 x −1 T−1 = E P [VT−1 ](1 + rT−1 ) . (37) Collecting results yields: τ e VΤτ − 2 = τrf DT− 2 (1 + rf ) −1 + E P [VT−1 ](1 + rT−1 ) −1 (38) e = τrf DT− 2 (1 + rf ) −1 + τrf E P [DT−1 ](1 + rf ) −1 (1 + rT−1 ) −1 . Continuing this procedure until t = 0 gives the present value of the tax shield: V0τ = ∑ Tt =1 τrf E P [Dt ](1 + rf ) −1 (1 + R te−1 ) −(t −1) . (39) This result contains those of Miles/Ezzell (1980) and Löffler (1998) for the case of constant growth rates: The expected tax savings in t are discounted once at the risk-free rate and (t − 1) times at the unlevered cost of equity. 5 PRACTICAL APPLICATION (A) SPECIFYING KEY PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL To apply the valuation model derived here, investors need to be able to articulate their expectations in terms of the probability p, the growth factors u (“maximum growth”), and d (“minimum growth”) – p, u, d determine the expected growth rate g. Of course, a proxy for risk-free rate rf must exist. In addition, one needs to know how p translates into q. In a first step it is helpful to assume that there is a constant factor γ, such that q = γ p with 0 < γ ≤ 1. I assume that p and g are constant through time. This is not a restriction, but assures that identical information on up and down movements is being transformed systematically in the same manner into growth rates of expected cash flows and certainty equivalents. Notice that for γ → 0 we have the case of maximum risk aversion, which in turn yields the minimum value of the cash flow. This is the minimum value because only down movements are taken into account, provided that q is the certainty equivalent probability for the up movement. Investors are risk-neutral for the case of γ = 1, implying p = q and a valuation based on the subjective expectation without any further consideration of risk. Risk-averse investors assign a value to the uncertain cash flow stream that is higher than the minimum value and lower than the maximum value obtained by risk-neutral investors. I want to point out that without any further specification of γ, the range of possible values between the minimum V[C, γ = 0] and the maximum V[C, γ = 1] is determined. All that is needed is the specification of the stochastic process for the unlevered cash flow stream, the risk-free rate, the corporate tax rate, τ, and the leverage ratio l 10. 10 There are ways to determine a point-estimate within the range of possible values, e.g., by applying an equilibrium capital asset pricing model. These, however, are not the focus of this paper. sbr 54 (2/2002) 145 F. Richter (B) TWO-STAGE MODEL Given that the assumptions on the growth profile of future cash flows and the financing policy cannot be forecast for many years, practitioners usually differentiate the planning period into two sub-periods: In the first period from t = 0 until t = t* the growth rate and the leverage ratio can be time dependent. In the second sub-period, i.e. for t > t*, simplifying assumptions are used (see next paragraph): * V0l = C e0 ∑ tt =1 Z′ Z ′t (1 + rf ) −t + C e0 ∑ Tt =t * +1 t (1 + rf ) −t Yt Yt (40) ⇔ Ce0 ∑ t*t =1 * Z ′* Z ′ * Z ′t t (1 + rf ) −t (1 + rf ) −t (1 + rf ) −t + C e0 ∑ T−t t =1 Yt * Yt Yt ⇔ Ce0 ∑ t*t =1 Z ′* * * Z′ Z ′t t (1 + rf ) −t + C e0 t (1 + rf ) −t ∑ T−t (1 + rf ) −t . t =1 Yt Yt * Yt Finally, re-substitute T for t* and expand the forecast horizon to infinity to complete the separation for the two-stage model. Z′ Z′ Z′ V0l = C e0 ∑ Tt =1 t (1 + rf ) − t + Ce0 T (1 + rf ) − T ∑ ∞t = T+1 t (1 + rf ) −(t − T) . Yt YT Yt 144 42444 3 14444 24444 3 := m T (41) := m ∞ The second component of this valuation equation is called “terminal value” or “continuing value”. Notice, that this expression here represents the certainty equivalent of this value that must be discounted at the risk-free rate. For convenience define the valuation multiples m. (C) CONVERGENCE ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE TERMINAL VALUE If certain factors such as the growth rate and the leverage ratio are constant, then the valuation multiples simplify. I use the result from the previous section to illustrate this: m T = ∑ Tt =1 Z ′t (1 + rf ) −t Yt t with: Z ′t = ∏ i=1 (qu i + (1 − q)d i ) . (42) First, consider the case in which the growth rate of the unconditional expectation is constant, i.e., ut = u and dt = d for all t, and define (1 + a) = qu + (1 − q) d as the risk-adjusted growth factor. Second, assume the leverage ratio to be constant for all t. With this, one gets: m T = ∑ Tt =1(1 + a) t (1 + rf ) −t y −t =∑ 146 T t =1(1 + (43) a) ((1 + rf )(1 − τ l)) t * −t sbr 54 (2/2002) Discounting Rules = ∑ Tt =1(1 + a) t (1 + rf (1 − τl)) −t T (1 + a) 1+ a = 1 − . rf (1 − τl) − a 1 + rf (l − τL) Finally, if T approaches infinity one gets a version of the constant growth model if, of course rf (1 − τl) > a: m∞ = 1+a . rf (1 − τl) − a (44) To determine the weighted average cost of capital under the present scenario, solve the following equation for (1 + wacc): 1+g 1+a = rf (1 − τl) − a wacc − g 1+g ⇔ 1 + wacc = (rf (1 − τl) − a) + 1 + g 1+a r (1 − τl) − a 1 + rf (1 − τl) = (1 + g) 1 + f = (1 + g) 1+a 1+a * = x(1 + rf (1 − τl)) = x(1 + rf )(1 − τ l) = (1 + re )(1 − τ * l). (45) Comparison with (10) shows that this is equals one plus the weighted average cost of capital. REFERENCES Brennan, Michael/Schwarz, Eduardo (1985), Evaluating Natural Resource Investments, in: Journal of Business, Vol. 85, pp. 135 – 157. 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