Climate Change Adaptation Planning:
Lessons from Nome, Alaska
Jeff Birchall
Urban and Regional Planning Program
University of Alberta
2016 Livable Cities Forum (Halifax) September 12 - 14, 2016
OUTLINE
Overview
Methods
Context
Findings
OVERVIEW
Research Problem
Risk to Coastal Communities
Climate models forecast further…:
• increases in temperature
• more extreme weather events
• a rise in sea- level
greater risk to northern coastal communities
CONT…
Importance of Problem
Adaptation Planning Underrepresented
• Planning for climate change adaptation is
underrepresented in local government
• particularly in northern communities
• Empirical (key informant) research is growing, but
still underrepresented when it comes to
• how communities incorporate planning for climate
adaptation into policy and practice
CONT…
Research Objective
• Gain insight into local government preparedness
for climate variability
Better understand…:
motivations
(slow v immediate threat)
extent policy integration
(embedded v. appendage)
nature of action
(reactionary v. anticipatory)
METHODS
Approach
Case Study: Nome Alaska
Qualitative semi-structured interviews (key informants):
• Managers/ decision-makers that can speak to:
• governance around adaptation plan conception and
development
• how implementation is incorporated into infrastructure/
community planning
CONT…
Key Informants Included:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mayor
City Manager
Director, Port Authority
Chair, Planning Commission
Manager, Utilities
Building Inspector
CONTEXT
CONT…
Some Facts about Nome
• 3800 people (from 28,000 gold rush, 1890s)
• Hub for Northwest Alaska
•
commercial/ industry
•
health, police, education (UAF satellite campus)
• Access: air and sea; seasonal roads
• Subarctic climate
•
long winters, short cool summers
• Temps. moderated by coast
•
winters less severe than fairbanks
• Permafrost is thinner than most of Alaska
• ~15-160ft, v. 600-2100ft
• Soil temp./ moisture content/ vegetation is changing
FINDINGS
Key Threats
• Permafrost
• Sea Ice
Policy Response
• Planning
• FEMA
Opportunities
• Tourism
• Commercial Shipping
KEY THREATS
Permafrost
What is it?
• Thick layer of ground that remains at or below 0C
for two consecutive years.
What’s happening?
• Warmer temperatures result in the thawing of the
permafrost layer, which results in infrastructure
damage/ failure.
CONT…
Water and Sewage Pipes:
Thawing permafrost
Unstable/ shifting ground
Pipe-breaks
Environmental hazard
(sewage)
Resources
Erosion
(water/ sewage)
Increased cost
Freeze/ thaw risk; infiltration
(water/ sewage)
Time
CONT…
Buildings and Fuel Storage:
Climate change, exacerbates an existing problem
• When climate was ‘stable’, buildings were constructed on
stilts and/ or piles, keeping it elevated above the ground, to
prevent the building’s warmth from thawing the permafrost
below.
• Hospital’s piles are filled with freon gas
• NOW, warming climate further destabilizing the ground.
CONT…
• Homes/ buildings require levelling every year (instead of
every 5-10yrs.).
• Sinkholes cause homes to subside/ collapse
CONT…
Environmental/ social risk
• Thawing ground beneath fuel storage tanks weaken
foundation, causing tanks to rupture/ leak.
• Nome relies on giant fuel storage tank farms for fuel:
• gasoline/ diesel for transportation
• heating fuel
• electricity generators
• Fuel delivered via ship, NO re-supply during winter
CONT…
Roads and Runways
Thawing permafrost, exacerbates an existing problem
• Because of LONG days during summer, dark surfaces
(roads/ runways) absorb A LOT of heat, warming the
permafrost, making the surface undulate/ buckle.
• SOLUTION: dirt/ gravel roads.
CONT…
• Heat and asphalt will do this on its own, but thawing
permafrost causes further destabilization.
• Increased duration of freeze/ thaw cycle cause more
and unpredictable heaves.
CONT…
Sea Ice
What is it?
• Frozen ocean water.
What’s happening?
• Warmer temperatures leave sea ice weaker
(thinner) and more variable in extent, which
increases coastal community exposer to storms,
and threatens subsistence lifestyles.
CONT…
Storm Surges:
Sea ice provides shoreline a buffer against winter storms
Warming Arctic
Sea ice
Storm surges
increasing in
frequency
freeze-ups break-ups
later
earlier
Sea ice weaker
increasing
in intensity
longer season
Shoreline/
infrastructure
vulnerable
Ice = torpedo
CONT…
Infrastructure:
Seawall exposed, leaving infrastructure vulnerable
• Port exposed for longer period
• Open for traffic later; storm season starting earlier, July/
August (prev. Oct.)
• Surges now 6-8ft (prev.
occurrence, storms stronger
2-5ft);
unpredictable
in
CONT…
• Parts of seawall subsiding/ breaking up
• Increase occurrence of road washouts and flooding
• Cape Nome estuary
• Cuts Nome off from other villages
• Increase in erosion
CONT…
Subsistance Living:
Sea ice less consistent
• Huts near shore more prone to washing away/ flooding
during storms
• Thinner sea ice makes winter crabbing dangerous
• crabs close to shore are smaller, less abundant
POLICY
Planning
• No setbacks along shoreline/ rivers (buildings placed
right against seawall)
• Organized retreat from coast not an
option (limited range of utilities and
infrastructure)
CONT…
• Zoning only recently (’08) became part of
community planning.
• Low internal capacity; contract out from interior.
• Comprehensive Plan & Hazard Mitigation Plan
•
language for adaptation, without saying ‘climate change
adaptation’
CONT…
FEMA
• Recently became part of FEMA’s hazard mitigation
program
•
new (and 50% re-model) homes in flood zone must meet code
for flood resistance (inc. stilts, flood vents in foundations)
•
50% of Nome is in floodplain
Education
• Participate in climate
prepared by NOAA/ UAF
adaptation
workshops
OPPORTUNITIES
Tourism
Ice-reduced Arctic Ocean
• Larger cruise ships
• More pleasure crafts
Increased stopovers in Nome
• Build larger port
• Create more infrastructure
• Crystal Serenity - 1000ft long, 1700
passengers (prev. 350ft, 150 passengers)
• CONVERESLY: Iditarod race, not enough
snow accumulation, bring in snow for
finish line!
CONT…
Commercial Shipping
“10 years ago I would have seen 2 ships offshore,
now I see 8-12…”
Longer ice-free season
More frequent deliveries
Cheaper goods
BUT:
• Greater number of vessels exposed to longer shoulder season storms
• Security/ defence issues (Russia building northern naval base)
SUMMARY
• Thawing permafrost is leading to broken pipes,
undulating roads, and subsiding buildings.
• Weaker sea ice is leaving infrastructure exposed to
increasingly strong and frequent storms.
• Adaptation planning is slowly gaining traction;
internal education an important component.
• Actions are reactionary, community having difficulty
getting ahead of impacts; lack of internal capacity.
Thanks for your time!
For further discussion, please contact me at:
[email protected]
This research was supported by the Ashley and Janet Cameron Endowment Fund, UAlberta North, and
the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, University of Alberta