Turning the energy supply of
the world in 50 years
-Is it for real?
Claus Felby Faculty of Life Sciences, University of
Copenhagen
We have the basics
•Capture of solar energy
•
•
•
•
Electricity
Biomass
Hydrogen
Heat
•Wind energy
•Nuclear energy
•Geothermal energy
•We need
• efficient storage and
infrastructure
• higher efficiency and
lower cost
•But how and where do
we get the quantum
leaps?
Immediate issues
• Better understanding of
photosynthesis
• Less costly production of
photovoltaic cells
• Better systems for converting
solar energy, and storing it
• Intelligent grids
• Improved methods of converting
biomass into energy carriers
• Speed up development of
nuclear power
• Instant carbon capture!
Technology development
Reality bypasses imagination....
Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000
vacuumtubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have
only 1,000 vaccuum tubes and perhaps weigh 1.5 tons.
Popular Mechanics, March 1949
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.
Ken Olsen (1926 - ), President, Digital Equipment, 1977
Possible breakthroughs
–biomimetics and materials science
Chlorosomes
• Bacterial self assembling
light harvesting complexes
97% efficiency
Synthetic biology
• Making jet fuels or
hydrogen from e.g. biomass
Thermoelectric materials
• nanomaterials e.g.
Graphene
Molecular level material
design
• New alloys or
organometallic materials
It takes big scale long term research within:
Fundamental-, biology, chemistry, physiscs and engineering
The Biosphere: 2000 Gton of Carbon
A major part of the carbon cycle takes
part in the biosphere
Manipulation of the
primary production
and build up of soil
carbon could be an
important part of the
biomass derived
energy supply
Blue biotechnology
•Algae and cyanobacteria
may give 30 times more
efficient photosynthesis
•It could fully decouple food
and bioenergy
•Only proven in lab-scale
•Lot’s of excitement and
hype
•We have NO experience
with LARGE scale
production of algae
biomass
•Still on the drawing board,
but...
Enough space for renewables?
Area needed to supply the world with biomass or photovoltaics
Algae
Photovoltaics
Can we fix it by energy technologies?
Economic growth
• 3 billion more people!
To meet IPCC’s targets the
technology carbon impact must be
reduced 11 fold by 2050
• A world without economic growth?
Sustainability
• Depletion of ressources e.g.
phosphorous is getting scarce
• Not enough land to feed everybody
with a western diet
• Would cheap renewable energy
deplete our ressources at a faster
rate?
The tragedy of the commons
• By acting in self interest we
often destroy the common
ressource
•If we are going to turn the
world in 50 years, we need to
make sure that by acting in our
own self interest we do not
counteract the technology
gains.
•The solutions are social and
political
Physics
Biology
Chemistry
Sociology
If humans can survive the next 200 years, then our
future will be bright.
Stephen Hawking 2008