IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE Event summary sponsored by: www.monex.com.mx IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE November 7th 2012 Westin Santa Fe, Mexico City Factors that will shape public policy and decision-making in Mexico Justine Thody, editorial director, Americas, The Economist Intelligence Unit www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas 1. The impact of the economic crisis in 2007-08 on employment levels in the US is still being felt; Mexico has recuperated substantially but there is still a lot to be done. 2. 3. 4. The implications of the democratic transition that began in Mexico ten years ago. The lack of investment compared to other countries such as South Korea; Mexico needs to increase investment to create jobs. The opportunity for Mexico to capitalise on its demographic dividend through increased investment in education. 3 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE René Zenteno, former undersecretary of population, migration and religious affairs, Ministry of the Interior, United Mexican States Justine Thody, editorial director, Americas, The Economist Intelligence Unit The Mexico story What megatrends are guiding the next six years? René Zenteno, former undersecretary of population, migration and religious affairs, Ministry of the Interior, United Mexican States Interviewer: Justine Thody, editorial director, Americas, The Economist Intelligence Unit www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas Mexican migration is typically linked to the fortunes of the US economy. “After the 2007 economic recession in the US, migration of Mexican workers decreased significantly between 2008 and 2011”, said René Zenteno. “However, this year’s figures show an increase in migratory flows, which is clear evidence that the US economy is once again demanding Mexican labour”. The trend should continue in this direction, according to Professor Zenteno. The US economy is only expected to grow by an average of just 2% in the coming five years—far below its average growth rate in the 1990s and the first half of the following decade. However, it will not just be the US economy affecting the flow of migrants. Mexico is facing a host of demographic and economic changes that will continue to reduce the flow of people to the US, including, a declining fertility rate, an increase in life expectancy and better access to public goods and loans. Although the US has strengthened its policies on undocumented migrants, migratory flows respond to economic needs. “There is no force that can stop migration”, said Professor Zenteno. The supply of decent jobs in Mexico will dictate patterns of migration, he explained. According to Professor Zenteno, in order for Mexico to keep migration rates low, it must increase real wages and reduce dependence on the informal labour market. With a population of almost 113 million in 2010 (almost twice as much as it was 35 years ago), Mexico needs to grow rich before it grows old in order to capitalise on its demographic bonus, said Professor Zenteno. Investment in education and R&D is essential to keep Mexican talent in Mexico. “If Mexico wants to progress, it has to improve its global position in terms of innovation”, he said. 5 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE Aurelio Nuño, coordinator for education, transition team for the president-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto The return of the PRI: Key policy goals for the new administration Aurelio Nuño, coordinator for education, transition team for the US-Mexico relations. Both the United States and Mexico have new incoming governments at the similar times, creating substantial opportunities to refresh bilateral ties. According to Aurelio Nuño, coordinator for education for Enrique Peña Nieto’s transition team, the priority of the new administration is to strengthen coordination between the US and Mexico, not only in regard to security but also in relation to trade. They plan to do this by building more robust and productive supply chains throughout North America (including Canada), allowing both countries to fend off low-cost Asian competition. Labour reform. Pending labour reforms should make the labour market more flexible and efficient, and it will pass through Congress, as there is a new legislative agreement with the executive power, said Mr Nuño. All the announced reforms that Mr Peña will present to Congress will be approved through consensus and cooperation with the unions, said Mr Nuño. Energy reform. Energy reform will be focused on two main initiatives for PEMEX, Mexico’s state-owned petroleum company: first, modernisation of the company to increase its competitiveness and production; second, legislation to allow foreign companies to invest in exploration and exploitation of deep water and shale gas. Education. Efforts will be directed to improve education quality for younger students, enhance coverage of high schools and colleges, upgrade existing infrastructure, acquire new technologies (One Laptop per Child) and develop programmes for full-time schools. Furthermore, Mr Nuño made clear that “the state is in charge of educational policies, not the National Union of Education Workers (SNTE)”, referring to Latin America’s largest trade union which, historically, has been very influential in dictating education policy in Mexico. of clear, measurable objectives. The plan includes a new crime prevention plan targeted at reducing violence (homicides, kidnapping and extortions), restructuring of the state police (federal and state), reforms of the judiciary and penitentiary system and an increase in the State security budget (Mexico 1.5% vs Colombia 5% of GDP). Meanwhile, the lively debate on legalising drugs is likely to remain on the agenda. Health care. The approach to health policy will focus on universal access and coverage of social security; homologate pensions (over 65 years old); unemployment and disability insurance; and improved coordination among the various health related institutions such as IMMS, ISSSTE and Seguro Popular. Tourism. The focus will be on a more integrated infrastructure plan and the diversification of destinations, according to Mr Nuño. Security. In regards to security, the strategy will be based on a series president-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto Interviewer: Tom Wainwright, Mexico bureau chief, The Economist www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas 7 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE of which nearly 50% work in a different company, he explained. The employment picture Can the private sector ensure a steady rise in high-paying jobs? Eduardo Solórzano, chief executive, Walmart Latin America Interviewer: Tom Wainwright, Mexico bureau chief, The Economist Walmart has become one of the largest employers in Latin America with nearly 370,000 employees. Latin America is the most important investment region for the company outside the US. And Mexico represents almost two-thirds of this workforce with company sales estimated at $25b. Given the region’s strategic www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas importance for Walmart, the company is investing in the training and development of its workforce. “Regionally, we offer nearly 30 hours of training per employee per year, so they can improve their skills for better opportunities within the company”, said Eduardo Solórzano, chief executive of Walmart Latin America. As a result of this training program, Walmart Mexico granted 25,000 promotions last year, which means that around 10% of its employees are now working in higher-paying job positions, according to Mr Solórzano. In Brazil, the company has implemented training programs for groups with no access to education. The initiative has reached almost 8,000 people, Almost 80% of Walmart’s consumers are women and in Latin America 51% of employees are female. Mr Solórzano explained how the company is responding to this demographic trend. “We are training nearly 39,000 women entrepreneurs in Mexico to make them part of the value chain of the company”, he said. “Worldwide, the company plans to invest almost $20b by 2016 to buy products manufactured specifically by female entrepreneurs”. Additionally, Walmart is aware that the rising middle class in the region has started to buy more of its products. Walmart has made a “very fine market segmentation throughout Latin America in order to identify where those consumers are and what they are demanding the most”, Mr Solórzano said. The Mexican market has become increasingly important for the company. Walmart foresees that consumption levels will continue to rise in emerging markets in future years. Mr Solórzano emphasized that Walmart is committed to continue increasing its investment levels and to buying Mexican products with the aim of selling them in both local and international markets. Eduardo Solórzano, chief executive, Walmart Latin America 9 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE Nicolas Shea, founder, Start-up Chile Eduardo Munhos de Campos, vice-president, Latin America, Commercial Aviation, Embraer Start-up Inc Is economic policy matching the demand for starting new businesses? Eduardo Munhos de Campos, vice-president, Latin America, Commercial Aviation, Embraer Nicolas Shea, founder, Start-up Chile Moderator: Robert Lane Greene, business correspondent, The Economist The Chilean model. Start-up Chile is a government program that grants seed capital to entrepreneurs all around the world. What makes it unique, according to Nicolas Shea, serial entrepreneur and founder of the organisation, is that Chile is a developing country giving www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas money to entrepreneurs in developed countries. “We focus on the entrepreneurs and let the entrepreneur do the rest”, said Mr Shea. The two main trends that the founders of Start-up Chile observed were: 1. Many entrepreneurs working for the government after 2010 earthquake in Chile. 2. The desire to position Chile as the innovation and entrepreneurial hub of the region. Launched in 2010, Start-up Chile incentivised early-stage entrepreneurs from all around the world and brought them to Chile for six months in exchange for $40,000 USD in cash from the local government. In 18 months the program had 1,000 entrepreneurs from 65 different countries. 500 of whom are no longer in Chile today are creating jobs elsewhere, challenging the status quo and connecting Chile to the world, explained Mr Shea. “The benefits are so clear that the development of Start-up Mexico would be a guaranteed success”, he said. According to Mr Shea, Mexico presents many advantages for a similar “Start-up” programme. Notable among these are its demographics, with a population of over 113 million and a large number of Mexicans living abroad. He recommends increasing the budget for R&D (Mexico spends .04% of GDP compared to Chile’s .05%), but also believes that simply increasing the budget is not enough—innovation must develop ideas that will sell. The Brazilian model. Speaking about Brazil’s entrepreneurial environment was Eduardo Munhos de Campos, vice-president of Commercial Aviation for Embraer, one of the world’s largest aircraft manufactures, which continues to be ranked as one of Brazil’s most innovative companies by global magazines. Mr Munhos said that Brazil presents an ideal economic and geopolitical platform for entrepreneurs and start-ups. Average incomes are higher than ever and the middle class represents 50% of the population. Though Brazil’s economy relies heavily on commodities, the government has invested in education and innovation at universities, he said. However, heavy taxation and too much government involvement remain obstacles to starting new businesses, according to Mr Munhos. In addition, the R&D climate in Brazil is in need of much improvement. The country follows the US model, in which the government supports large investments. However those who require smaller amounts must look elsewhere, to private and investment funds, he explained. 11 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE The architecture of progress How designers and entrepreneurs are solving the problemsof urbaniSation Tatiana Bilbao, partner, Tatiana Bilbao, S.C. Jimena Pardo, co-founder, Carrot Moderator: Justine Thody, editorial director, Americas, The Economist Intelligence Unit Jimena Pardo, co-founder, Carrot Tatiana Bilbao, partner, Tatiana Bilbao, S.C. sharing to meet the challenges of sustainable mobility. “We need to find innovative solutions to common problems such as the transit and contamination in Mexico City”, said Jimena Pardo, co-founder of Carrot, Mexico’s first carsharing service. This innovative www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas start-up is addressing problems of urbanisation by helping complement the public and private efforts in the city by “building a community through car-sharing”. The success of Carrot speaks for itself. “We started with 3 cars and now we have 40 cars and more than 1,400 users”, Ms Pardo says, who launched the company with her partner Diego Solórzano in June 2012. She believes Mexican society is ready to adopt solutions such as car- For Tatiana Bilbao, a well-known architect that works on urban and social development projects around Mexico, architecture is an important tool for improving quality of life and also offering solutions to common problems in mass urban spaces. “Architecture needs input from different disciplines to develop integral projects”, she said. Public spaces need to be recovered, as they are one of the best ways to rebuild social fabric (community structure) in most cities, according to Ms Bilbao. However, “we need to find our own urban models in Mexico that are inspired by citizens and cultural and community development, not by cars or roads”, she said. Cities in Colombia, such as Bogotá and Medellin, are good examples of how public space can be restored to help reduce the levels of violence and rebuild the social fabric. In Mexico, Mexico City is another good example of restoration of public space. However, cities like Guadalajara or Monterrey still need to improve their efforts. “One of the biggest challenges of urban development in the upcoming years is to improve the policies of land use while implementing more sustainable mobility programs”, said Ms Bilbao. “Such as those intending to pedestrianise and condense particular zones in the cities”. According to both Ms Bilbao and Ms Pardo, successful models for urban sustainability can be developed in every city if private funding is available and civil society and government are truly committed to it. 13 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE Gael Garcia Bernal, co-founder, Canana Productions The art of soft power Can art and cinema improve the life of the average Mexican? Gael Garcia Bernal, co-founder, Canana Productions Moderator: Robert Lane Greene, business correspondent, The Economist www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas Soft power was a concept originally introduced by Joseph Nye, award-winning political scientist form Harvard University, who defined it as “the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than through coercion”. The elements of soft power include culture, sports, music, television and movies, explained Robert Lane Greene, business correspondent for The Economist. Mr Greene interviewed Gael Garcia Bernal, actor and co-founder of Canana Productions, a film, television and theatre production company with a distributing arm and a documentary division founded 8 years ago. Canana aims to create new authors, play writers, television writers and film directors by expanding the entire spectrum of creativity. It even gives untrained film enthusiasts the opportunity to make amateur films. “Running an independent production company in Mexico is complicated and challenging, mainly because we don’t have television as an ally due to its monopolistic structure,” said Mr García. However, over the years, other production companies have emerged, improving the situation through increased competition, he explained. Given Mexico’s strength in the cinema industry, Mr Garcia explained, “through art we can reduce inequality, the country’s most severe problem. Art can find the way to tackle economic and political issues and it works”. Mexico finds itself in a very complicated situation at the moment, as it is constantly the subject of bad press. That is why art is such an important pillar of change in society. Art acts as a catalyst and can be the main force behind the sustainability of any social policy, he explained. In regards to Mexico’s recent presidential election, Mr García pointed out that the fear of the PRI returning to government is that they will try to limit the freedom of expression in the arts and journalism. He also stressed the importance of reviewing the television monopoly, which inhibits the development of new content, new authors and new programs. 15 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE The health of nations What Mexico’s health care system says about regulation and competition? Bertrand Baron, chief executive, Sanofi-aventis, Mexico Interviewer: Justine Thody, editorial director, Americas, The Economist Intelligence Unit Mexico is passing through a double transition—demographic and epidemiological—that is affecting the development of its health care system, said Bertrand Baron, chief executive of SanofiAventis Mexico. The demographic transition implies an increase in life expectancy from 75 to 80 years old by 2025 and a fourfold increase in the population of over 65 by 2050. At the same time, Mexico is experiencing an epidemiological transition related to these demographic trends, with Mexicans now suffering from diseases different from those that existed 50 years ago, such as noninfectious or chronic-degenerative diseases, like cancer and diabetes. The changes driven by these transitions are putting considerable pressure on the health care system, Mr. Baron said. “Health care planning nowadays has to be more focused on preventing than curing, which has consequences on the financial stability of the health care system”, said Mr Baron. The Mexican government is making good progress in regards to prevention through the implementation of programs such as PrevenIMSS, he explained. However, it still has to execute successfully on integral programs focused on health, education and fitness, which will impact on a wider sector of the population and www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas prevent diseases such as diabetes. Furthermore, public spending in health care needs to be increased. Mr Baron explained that Mexico has fallen behind in public spending on health. Its actual spending is around 6.1% of the GDP, one of the lowest among OECD countries, where the average is around 9%. Another challenge for the Mexican health care system, according to Mr Baron, is to improve access to better low-cost medicines for the population. “Although the Seguro Popular has been a major step towards universal healthcare, the fragmentation of the health care system has made the process more complex, proving that it is essential that Mexico works towards the integration of a unified system”, he explained. The pharmaceutical market has introduced generic drugs as an alternative for those consumers who cannot afford to buy traditional drugs. Sanofi has taken advantage of this market opportunity by buying a generic drugs company and investing more than $10m in a plant in Mexico. Mr Baron concluded that the future of the health care system in Mexico has good prospects. “With a strong and efficient regulator such as Cofepris, a good intellectual property framework and the promotion of an integrated system, the health care system in Mexico is moving in the right direction”. Bertrand Baron, chief executive, Sanofi-aventis, Mexico 17 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE The China question Ambassador Sergio Ley, Asia-Pacific chair, Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade; former Ambassador of Mexico to ChinA Eduardo Solis, president, Asociación Mexicana de la Industría Automotriz How can Mexico reap the benefits of China’s rising wages? Ambassador Sergio Ley, Asia-Pacific chair, Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade; former Ambassador of Mexico to China Eduardo Solis, president, Asociación Mexicana de la Industría Automotriz Moderator: Robert Lane Greene, business correspondent, The Economist inviting Chinese suppliers of large companies to come to Mexico to produce”, suggested Mr Ley. Since Chinese labour has increased in cost, Chinese companies will also look for alternative locations to produce their products. Mexico can provide a platform with a wide international network, he explained. This opportunity can add value to Mexican supply chains and will also help create jobs through increased investment, according to Mr Ley. According to Sergio Ley, former Ambassador of Mexico to China, China’s wages have increased over the last decade and will continue to rise. This is due to China’s shift in focus to high value-added manufacturing processes, something that was www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas necessary for the growth of its economy, he explained. Now this shift represents an opportunity for Mexico because of its proximity to some of the largest markets in the world. Thus, Mexico can offer investment incentives to attract the companies that left China, explained Mr Ley. However there is a risk that Mexico won’t implement the right policies to attract these companies or face up to competition from countries such as Bangladesh. “We can gain a lead in the investment fight by Eduardo Solis, president of Asociación Mexicana de la Industria Automotriz (AMIA), sees the increasing costs of labour in China as new investment opportunities for the automotive industry. Nonetheless, Mr Solis fears that higher costs will draw new subsidies from Chinese provinces to “support” their producers. This may become an important issue to be discussed in the international arena in a few years, he predicted. Mr Ley believes that Mexico has always seen China as a major competitor and that both countries compete actively in the US market (For instance, China has overtaken Mexico in terms of trade). The fact that they are both heavily industrialised countries means that they can complement each other. China will look to other industrialised countries (Mexico is the most industrialised country in Latin America) to expand production, markets and businesses. Though Mexico can offer several benefits, such as infrastructure and a qualified workforce, it has to focus its attention on reforms to make it more attractive in international markets. According to Mr Solis, the most critical reforms are needed in the labour, fiscal and energy sectors. Increasing costs in China are sending the North American companies that followed the off-shoring trend to Asia years ago back to the US, said Mr Solis. Recent US policies aimed at creating jobs by re-industrialising the country represent a great opportunity for Mexico, he explained. “The country has many opportunities in the automotive sector”, said Mr Solis. “The Just in Time and Sequence methods of production have had better results in Mexico than in China due to its geographic proximity”. China’s manufacturing sector became more sophisticated as it invested heavily in R&D. This is a lesson Mexico needs to learn, according to Mr Ley. Mexico must also invest in education to be able to offer a more highly skilled workforce, he explained. 19 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE In this panel, Alejandro Poiré, secretary of the interior of the Mexican government and Shannon O’Neil, senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations addressed the challenges being faced by the Mexican and US governments regarding security. AlejanDro Poiré, secretary of the interior, United Mexican States Shannon O’Neil, senior fellow for Latin American Studies, Council on Foreign Relations Disrupting the Drug war A special session in partnership with the Council on Foreign Relations Shannon O’Neil, senior fellow for Latin American Studies, Council on Foreign Relations Alejandro Poiré, secretary of the interior, United Mexican States Moderator: Tom Wainwright, Mexico bureau chief, The Economist www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas In the United States, The legalisation of marijuana in Colorado and Washington will generate legal challenges for the US federal government and for those state governments who opposed the referendum. Not many changes are expected in terms of legal production and sale of marijuana. However, this does open up a space in the US to prioritise these issues on the political agenda at a time when the US federal government has been quite resistant, said Ms O’Neil. the consensus of the political forces and the civil society”, according to Mr Poiré. Mr Poiré recognised that there still a lot more to be done. The main challenges are: 1. The implementation of the reform of the criminal justice system on a national scale (only 4 states have implemented it) 2. The debugging and professionalisation of police forces at both state and municipal levels. (Only 172,000 have passed ‘confidence control exams’ and more than 140,000 have failed and have not been removed) The new administration coming into office in Mexico offers an The decision taken by President opportunity to bring more current Calderón to fight organised crime issues to the agenda and to groups has been questioned analyse how both administrations by various sectors of Mexican are prioritising issues, said Ms society. However, for the federal O’Neil. She explained that in government, it was right decision the second term of the Obama to make, said Mr. Poiré. The administration there will be some strategy has complemented the changes. “Some high level officers reforms and agreements approved will be removed and a new team in this sexenio, such as, the will be formed”, Ms O’Neil said. Criminal Justice and the National “However, we cannot expect major Public Security System reforms, as changes as both governments well as the National Agreement on are coordinating their efforts at Justice and Security, both of which different levels”. have been accomplished “through Meanwhile, Mr Poiré argued that both governments have a very good level of coordination, but also outlined unsolved issues for the incoming government: 1. The investigations into Fast and Furious 2. The significant number of weapons still crossing the border illegally 3. The reinforcement of the Merida Initiative 4. Improvement on security protocols for research and resolution of judicial cases on both sides of the border “The high demand for illegal drugs in the US is still the biggest problem driving drug cartel violence”, explained Mr Poiré. “It generates resources that allow cartels to operate at significant levels” The size of the illegal market of drugs is around $30b a year. 21 IDEAS ECONOMY: MEXICO THE POLITICS OF CHANGE Power shifts The new political context Ernesto Cordero, president of the Senate, United Mexican States Interviewer: Tom Wainwright, Mexico bureau chief, The Economist The new dynamics of Mexico’s congress will determine the outcome of reform negotiations during the next presidential term. “The labour reform will be approved in the following days”, said Ernesto Cordero, president of the Senate, explaining that there had been a lot of disinformation related to the reform and the negotiations around it. According to Senator Cordero, the political division in Congress does not make it dysfunctional. In fact, he thinks that it is a good sign for Mexico’s democracy and will result in better negotiations between parties and in progressive reforms. The Congress did not paralyse reforms during the past six years during which two fiscal reforms, two tributary reforms and two structural reforms were passed, added Mr Cordero. Within the legal framework of preferred initiatives, the Congress will approve two structural reforms in less than eighty days, something that is of very high significance for Mexico, he explained. www.economist.com/events-conferences/americas Ernesto Cordero, president of the Senate Mexico’s political development is highly asymmetrical. Government schemes are very effective and accountable at a federal level but this is not replicated throughout the states. “The states are considered a feudal power since local political development is very poor”, explained Mr Cordero. “They control Congress, the media and communications, and so on”. Responding to the defeat of the PAN in July’s election, Mr Cordero explained that the new path for the PAN will begin with a thorough evaluation on what went right and what went wrong to allow them to begin redesign the party. An important lesson that needs to be learned is the need to improve party’s communication to the population, reform the party’s internal statutes, promote the its principals, of which freedom is the most important, and finally, rethink the candidate selection process, he said.
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