For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 1 of 12
CANADIAN POLITICAL PULSE
Conservatives Stable, NDP Drops
and Liberals Gain in Canada
Most Canadians expect Justin Trudeau to become the new leader of the
Liberal Party this year.
[TORONTO – Jan. 19, 2013] – The governing
Conservative Party remains ahead in Canada, as
support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) has
dropped since the start of the year, a new Angus
Reid Public Opinion poll conducted for the
Toronto Star and La Presse has found.
The online survey of a representative national
sample of 2,028 Canadian adults also found that
a majority of Canadians expect Justin Trudeau to
become the next leader of the Liberal Party.
KEY FINDINGS
 Voting Intention in Canada: Con. 35% (=),
NDP 29% (-4), Lib. 22% (+3), Grn. 6% (=),
BQ 6% (=)
 Approval Rating: Mulcair 41% (-3), Harper
40% (+3), Rae 33% (+1)
 55% expect Justin Trudeau to become the
new leader of the Liberal Party
Voting Intention
Full topline results are at the end of this release.
Across the country, 35 per cent of decided voters
and leaners (unchanged since early January)
would support the Conservative candidate in their
riding if a federal election were held tomorrow.
The New Democrats are in second place with 29
per cent (-4), followed by the Liberal Party with 22
per cent (+3), the Green Party with six per cent
(=) and the Bloc Québécois also with six per cent
(=).
From January 16 to January 17, 2013, Angus Reid Public
Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,028 randomly
selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists.
The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is
+/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically
weighted according to the most current education, age, gender
and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of
the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or
between totals are due to rounding.
The Tories remain dominant in their strongholds of Alberta (62%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan
(53%), and hold the upper hand in Ontario (38%). The NDP is first in Quebec (32%), but with the Bloc
(25%) and the Liberals (21%) gaining ground. The New Democrats are tied with the Conservatives in
British Columbia (35% each).
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 2 of 12
The Conservatives have extended their lead among male voters (39%, to 28% for the NDP), and the two
main parties remain practically even among female voters (31% for the Tories, 30% for the New
Democrats). The Conservatives are the top choice for decided voters aged 55 and over (43%) and those
aged 35-to-54 (38%), while the NDP is most popular with voters aged 18-to-34 (41%).
The three parties are keeping a good retention rate from the 2011 election, with the Conservatives
holding on to 87 per cent of their voters, the Liberals retaining 82 per cent of them, and the New
Democrats at 80 per cent.
The NDP is regarded favourably by half of Canadians (50%), while more than a third of respondents hold
positive opinions of the Conservative Party (39%), the Liberal Party (38%) and the Green Party (35%). In
Quebec, 41 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of the Bloc Québécois.
The approval rating for NDP and Official Opposition leader Thomas Mulcair stands at 41 per cent, while
Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper checks in at 40 per cent. A third of
Canadians (33%) approve of the way Bob Rae is handling his duties.
Liberal Leadership Race
Justin Trudeau is the best known federal Liberal leadership contender, with 22 per cent of Canadians
saying they know his background and ideas “very well” and a further 48 per cent saying they know “a
little” about it. Two-five respondents (42%) know something about the background and ideas of Marc
Garneau. In contrast, more than three-in-five Canadians do not know enough about the seven remaining
leadership contenders.
Two-in-five Canadians (40%) say they are more likely to vote for the Liberals in the next election with
Justin Trudeau as leader, while one-in-four (23%) would be more likely to do so under Marc Garneau.
The remaining leadership contenders are in single digits on this question.
A Justin Trudeau-led Liberal Party would be essentially tied with the Conservatives among decided voters
(33%, to 34% for the Tories), while Marc Garneau would garner one-in-four votes (25%, behind the NDP
at 28% and the Conservatives at 34%). Under Martha Hall Findlay and Martin Cauchon, the Liberals are
a distant third (19% and 17% respectively).
A majority of Canadians (55%) expect Justin Trudeau to win the Liberal leadership race, while 33 per cent
are uncertain. In addition, 27 per cent of respondents would like to see the new Liberal leader draw
inspiration from Pierre Trudeau, while smaller proportions would rather see Jean Chrétien (12%) and
Lester B. Pearson (11%) as examples to follow.
Only a quarter of Canadians (25%) support a full merger between the Liberals and the NDP, while a
slightly higher proportion (29%) is in favour of an agreement between the two parties to only run
candidates from one of the two parties in ridings where vote splitting occurs. Two-in-five respondents
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 3 of 12
(41%) support a formal agreement between the two parties to share power in a coalition government, if
the opportunity arises, while a majority (58%) would simply keep the status quo, with both parties
remaining fully independent of each other.
In the event of a merger between the Liberals and NDP, 23 per cent of respondents would like to see the
winner of the Liberal leadership race become the leader of the merged party, while 15 per cent would
prefer Thomas Mulcair. Most Canadians are either undecided (38%) or would rather have a different
person (24%) leading the merged party.
About two-in-five Canadians (38%) say they are “very likely” or “moderately likely” to vote for the Liberal
Party in the next federal election. Those who are unlikely to vote Liberal cite that Stephen Harper and the
Conservatives are doing a good job (30%), that the Liberal Party has lost its way (26%) and that they
have never voted Liberal (25%) as reasons for their decision.
Across Canada, only 23 per cent of respondents are aware that Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc
Québécois.
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About Angus Reid Public Opinion
Angus Reid Public Opinion is a public affairs practice headed by Dr. Angus Reid: an industry visionary who
has spent more than four decades asking questions to figure out what people feel, how they think and who
they will vote for. A team of talented and experienced practitioners with a unique and profound
understanding of global issues conduct high quality research throughout the world on a daily basis for
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- 30 For more information, please contact
our spokesperson listed in the footnote.
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 4 of 12
If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to
support in your constituency?
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
May '11
Election
Aug '11
Sept '11
Jan '12
Conservative
Mar '12
May '12
Liberal
Jun '12
NDP
Jan '13
BQ
Jan. '13
Green
Canadian Political Pulse
If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to
support in your constituency?
Total
Region
BC
AB
MB/SK
ON
PQ
ATL
2011
Election
Conservative Party
New Democratic
Party
Liberal Party
35%
35%
62%
53%
38%
17%
31%
39.6%
29%
35%
18%
25%
29%
32%
29%
30.1%
22%
19%
11%
15%
26%
21%
35%
18.9%
Green Party
6%
9%
7%
6%
6%
4%
5%
3.9%
Bloc Québécois
6%
--
--
--
--
25%
--
6.0%
Other party
1%
2%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1.2%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 5 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to
support in your constituency?
Gender
Total
Male
Female
Conservative Party
35%
39%
31%
New Democratic Party
29%
28%
30%
Liberal Party
22%
21%
24%
Green Party
6%
5%
7%
Bloc Québécois
6%
6%
7%
Other party
1%
1%
1%
Canadian Political Pulse
If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to
support in your constituency?
Total
Age
18-34
35-54
55+
Conservative Party
35%
22%
38%
43%
New Democratic Party
29%
41%
27%
22%
Liberal Party
22%
20%
23%
24%
Green Party
6%
9%
6%
3%
Bloc Québécois
6%
6%
6%
8%
Other party
1%
1%
1%
0%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 6 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to
support in your constituency?
Vote in the 2011 Federal Election
Con.
NDP
Lib.
Conservative Party
87%
3%
3%
New Democratic Party
5%
80%
14%
Liberal Party
6%
8%
82%
Bloc Québécois
0%
5%
0%
Green Party
1%
5%
1%
Other party
1%
0%
0%
Canadian Political Pulse
Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of each of the following people?
Total Canada
Prime Minister and
Conservative Party
leader Stephen Harper
New Democratic Party
(NDP) and Official
Opposition leader
Thomas Mulcair
Interim Liberal Party
leader Bob Rae
Approve
40%
41%
33%
Disapprove
51%
32%
38%
Not sure
9%
27%
29%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 7 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political
parties?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not sure
The Conservative Party
39%
53%
8%
The New Democratic Party (NDP)
50%
40%
10%
The Liberal Party
38%
52%
9%
The Bloc Québécois [QUEBEC ONLY]
41%
51%
8%
The Green Party
35%
42%
23%
Canadian Political Pulse
Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political
parties?
I know their
background
and the ideas
they believe in
very well
I know a little
about their
background and
the ideas they
believe in
I only know
the name
I don’t know
them at all
Justin Trudeau
22%
48%
21%
9%
Marc Garneau
9%
33%
26%
32%
Martin Cauchon
2%
13%
22%
62%
Martha Hall Findlay
2%
11%
21%
65%
Deborah Coyne
1%
8%
21%
70%
Joyce Murray
1%
5%
17%
77%
David Bertschi
1%
4%
14%
82%
Karen McCrimmon
1%
4%
15%
80%
George Takach
1%
3%
15%
82%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 8 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
Please indicate whether you would be more or less likely to vote for the Liberal party if each of the
following candidates was leader.
More likely
No difference
Less likely
Not sure
Justin Trudeau
40%
24%
20%
16%
Marc Garneau
23%
36%
15%
26%
Martin Cauchon
7%
38%
20%
34%
Martha Hall Findlay
6%
38%
21%
35%
Joyce Murray
4%
37%
22%
37%
Deborah Coyne
4%
37%
22%
37%
George Takach
3%
37%
21%
38%
David Bertschi
3%
37%
21%
39%
Karen McCrimmon
3%
37%
21%
38%
Canadian Political Pulse
If [NAME] were leader of the Liberal Party, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to
support in your constituency if an election were held tomorrow?
- Decided Voters
Justin
Trudeau
Marc
Garneau
Martha Hall
Findlay
Martin
Cauchon
Liberal Party
34%
25%
19%
17%
Conservative Party
33%
34%
36%
37%
New Democratic Party (NDP)
22%
28%
31%
31%
Green Party
4%
5%
6%
6%
Bloc Québécois
6%
7%
7%
7%
Other party
1%
2%
2%
2%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 9 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
Who do you think will win the Liberal leadership?
Justin Trudeau
55%
Marc Garneau
7%
Martin Cauchon
1%
Martha Hall Findlay
1%
Deborah Coyne
1%
Joyce Murray
0%
David Bertschi
0%
George Takach
0%
Karen McCrimmon
0%
Not sure
33%
Canadian Political Pulse
From which former Liberal leader should the party’s next leader draw inspiration?
Pierre Trudeau
27%
Jean Chrétien
12%
Lester B. Pearson
11%
Paul Martin
6%
Stéphane Dion
1%
John Turner
1%
Michael Ignatieff
1%
None of them
18%
Not sure
22%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 10 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
Some people have suggested that the federal Liberal Party and the federal New Democratic Party (NDP)
should work together. Would you support or oppose each of the following ideas?
Support
Oppose
Not sure
A full merger between the
Liberals and the NDP
25%
52%
24%
An agreement between the two parties to only
run candidates from one of the two parties in
ridings where vote splitting occurs
29%
42%
29%
A formal agreement between the two parties
to share power in a coalition government, if
the opportunity arises
41%
37%
22%
The status quo—both parties remaining fully
independent of one another
58%
19%
23%
Canadian Political Pulse
If there was eventually a merger between the Liberals and NDP, who do you think should lead the
merged party?
Thomas Mulcair
15%
The winner of Liberal leadership race
23%
Neither of them
24%
Not sure
38%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 11 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
How likely are you to vote for the Liberal Party in the next federal election?
Very likely
14%
Moderately likely
24%
Not very likely
27%
Not at all likely
35%
Canadian Political Pulse
To respondents who are “Not very likely” and “Not at all likely” to vote Liberal – Which of the
following most closely reflects the reason you are not likely to vote Liberal in the next federal election?
I think Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are doing a good job
30%
The Liberal Party has lost its way
26%
I have never voted Liberal
25%
I don’t believe the Liberals will have had enough time with a new
leader to provide a reasonable alternative to the current government
19%
I think Thomas Mulcair and the NDP should be in government
16%
They haven’t fielded good candidates in my riding
13%
Other
9%
I just don’t generally vote
8%
None of these
6%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]
For Immediate Release
Canadian Public Opinion Poll
Page 12 of 12
Canadian Political Pulse
Who is the leader of the Bloc Québécois?
Daniel Paillé
23%
Gilles Duceppe
12%
None of them
8%
François Legault
3%
Maria Mourani
3%
Bernard Landry
1%
Louis Plamondon
1%
Not sure
49%
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion, 416-642-7699, [email protected]