36
C o m o a r a t i vC
e i v i l i z a t i o nR
s eview
THE NEOLITHICDEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION,
POPULATIONPRESSUREAND CULTURALCHANGE.
BOCQUET-APPEL
JEAN-PIERRE
PARIS.FRANCE
[email protected]
Summary
Using paleoanthropological
datafrom about 100cemeteriesin the
Northern Hemisphere(Europe, North Africa. and North Arnerica).the
signatureof a previously unknown demographicshifi has been cletccted, associatedwith the transition from a hunter-gathererto an agricultural economy. This shift is characterizedby a dramiitic and abrupt
increasein the birth rate and,beyond,of the indiviclualfèmalefèrtility
and the metapopulationgrowth rate,over a period of lessthan a rnillennium, following the onsetof the transitionto agriculture.This demographicprocesshasbeentermedthe NeolithicDemographicTransition
(NDT).
The methodologicalinnovationthat has made identificationof the
NDT possibleis the useof a relativechronologt',fixed to the localonset
of the Neolithic,insteadof the absolute(historical)chronology.Using
archaeologicaldata (about 700 enclosuresin Europe and 3 I cross-cultural remainsof early village societies),
this presentation
outlinessome
NDT,
also
reexamines.
of the cultural consequences
of the
and
on an
empiricalbasis,the questionof whetherpopulationpressurewas the
causeor the effect of the cultural change.The data show that thc dcmographicresponseof the populationwas simultaneous
with the cultural
shift.
Introduction
A periodof shiftsand reversalsin a civilizationcan be understood
as the relatively rapid emergenceor disappearanceof a geographical
areaexercisingideological,economicand military influenceor supraregionaldominationover a relativelylong duration.Thc causesof such
Among the main causes
shiftsarecomplex,historicaland conjunctural.
of culturalshifts,the sizeof the populationand its dernographic
dynamics cerlainlyappearto haveplayeda role. But in attemptingto meûsule
a link betweenpopulationand economic- and cultural- variation.the
results of historical time series are ambiguous(see. for cxamplc
Schofield 2000).
F*
i.
L
i
!
Jean-PierreBocquet-Appel
tt
,
i
i
f-7
To measurethe impactof demo-traphy
on a civilizntionshift.i.e.on
a macroculturalchange,ratherthantrying to build up a topologyof the
causesofthese changesin general,I will be looking upstreant.
chronologically speaking,from known historicalcivilizations.to focus on a
specificpoint, which is the shift from hunter-garheler
to farming societies.
There are two chronologiesin humanhistory:a lone chronolo-uy.
starting 1.8 millions years ago with Honut ergosîer.the first cleparture
from Africa and the beginningof globalcolonisationbi,'ear-lyhur.nans,
and a shortchronology,beginning180,000-200.000
yearsa-eoand cor.rcerninganatomicallymodernhumans,i.e.membersof our species.
This
shortchronology,which is still proceeding.has seenthe globalcolonisationof our planetby humans.Humanshavebeenhunter-gatherers
fbr
95Voof the time to date,as againstonly -5%when they havebeenproducers.Needlessto say,the shift from hunter-gatherer
to producersocietieshas been the major qualitativechangein human history.anclthe
sourceof all preindustrialsocietiesup to the dawn of the 20th century.
Thesepreindustrialsocietieshaveprovidedall the "civilizational"content of written history.The questionthen arisesas to whether.in this
major shift,it is possibleto detectthe influenceof population.If so.did
demographicpressurecome before or after the cultural chan-ce'lWas it
one of the causesor one of the effectsof the cultural changc'?
Detection of the Neolithic Demographic Transition on a
Worldwide Scale
The questionof the causallink betweendemographl,and cr.rltural
changehas beena recurrenttopic of disct-rssion
in archaeolo-ryfttr fbrty
years(see,in particular: Service 1968,Boserup I96-5.Binfbrd 1968.
C o h e nl 9 7 7 , F l a n n e r y1 9 6 9 , C o w g i lll9 7 5 , H e n r y 1 9 9 l .a n c R
l osenbcr-s
1 9 9 0 ,1 9 9 8 ) .B u t t h e p r o b l e m si n v o l v e di n g a t h e l i n -qsu r s i - e r p e r i r n e n tal archaeologicaldata have left the question with no consensual
answer.The situationis changingthankstcttwo mcthodolo-rical
innovations in paleodemography:the use of: l) a non-conventional
clemographicindicatorin cemeteries,
representingthe birth rarc. and 2) a
non-standard chronologicalframe that makes it possibleto gather
informationwhich is dispersedover time and spaceand to highlight
otherwise undetectabledemographicpatternsunderlying the archaeolosical data.
38
ComparativeCivilizationsReview
The Paleodemographic Indicator, Absolute Chronology and
Relative Chronology
The demographic indicator is representedby the proportion of
immature skeletonsaged five to 19 years in a cemetery.With a demographicmodel for a stablepopulation,counter-intuitivevarriationin this
indicator represents,to within a constant,the variation of the birth and
growth ratesof the living populationgeneratingthe cemeteryand not of
and
mortality (see Sattenspieland Harpending, 1983; Joharnsson
Horowitz, 1986;McCaa,2001,Bocquet-Appel2002).
betweenculof associations
Becauseit doesnot allow comparisons
tural and demographicevents occurring at diflèrent dates, the usual
absolute (historical) chronology has been abandoned. Absolute
chronologymaskstemporallydistant statisticalregularitiesthat needto
be comparedin attemptingto detectthe signatureof a global population
process,and in particular of causalprocessesthat occur accordingto a
local time scale,but are historically scattered.
This is the case, for example, of the contemporarydemo-uraphic
transition, which began at the end of the lSth century, in continental
zones distant from each other (New England in North America and
Normandy in France) and spreadfrom region to region, at different
et
timesand speeds,until the 1970sin SouthEastAsia [Bocquet-Appel
representthis
transition,
single
image
of
How
can
the
al 1998,20021.
ing a transculturaldemographicprocess,be linked with data like those
mentionedabove,representinga demographicprocesshighly dispersed
over spaceand time?
As indicatedabove,the absolutechronology is thus replace<lby it
relative chronology,which is conceivedsimply as a duration that
elapsedlocally from the startof a major cultural shift (in this paper,the
introductionof the agriculturalsystem)up to the dateof the demographic indicator,or the datesofother relevantcultural changessuch as. for
example, the appearanceof public spaces [Bocquet-Appel and
Dubouloz 2003, Bocquet-Appeland Dubouloz 20041,of a social hierarchy,of a defined size of village units, etc.
The time elapsesincethe local beginningof a major culturalshift.
symbolizedby dt, canhave a positive value (dt > 0) if a minor eventhas
succeededa major event, such as the date of a Late Neolithic cemetery
relative to the introductionof the Neolithic, or a negativevalue dt (dt <
0) if, on the contrary,the minor event has precededthe major one, such
as the dateof a Mesolithic cemeteryrelativeto the startof the Neolithic
The changeto a relative chronology makes it possibleto gather infbr-
Jean-PierreBocquet-Appel
39
mationwhich is dispersedover spaceand time and to positionit within
a common temporalframe. The relative chronologyhas beenrepeatedly discussedelsewhere[Bocquet-Appely Paz de Miguel Ibanez2002.
Bocquet-Appel 2002, Bocquet-Appel and Dubouloz 2004. BocquetAppel 20051.
i
i
Detection of the Signal of the Neolithic Demographic Transition
NDT)
Figures I and 2 show the variationsin the proportion of immature
skeletonsin two continentalsamplesof hunter-gatherer
and horticulturist-farmer cemeteries, in Europe and North-Africa (MesolithicNeolithic) and in North America (Formative-Woodland).In both figures,towardsdt=O, i.e.just at the onsetof the local introductionof an
agriculturalproductionsystem,an abruptchangecan be discernedin the
proportionof immatureskeletons,which increasesfiom l8 to 307oover
a durationof approximatelydt = 600-700years.This abruptrise. which
is interpretedas the signatureof an explosionin the birth rate irnd thus
in individual female fertility, has been named the Neolithic
DemographicTransition (abbreviatedto NDT) [Bocquet-Appel2002].
At its peak (dt 600-700 years),this changeconespondsto an estimatedbirth rate exceeding50 per thousandand to a growth rateof about
l.37a,btt with a high confidenceintervalfor the latter[Bocquet-Appel
and Naji 20061.The similarity betweenthe two NDT signaturescan be
comparedin Figure 3. Betweendt = 3000 andth = 1500(their common
duration in the frame), the two transitionprofiles coincideto a remarkable extent, suggestingthat they representregional expressionsof the
sameglobalprocess,startingaroundthe l4th millenniumcal BP in the
Levant and continuing until the last hunter-gatherersocieticsin the 20'r'
centuryAD in Australia [Bocquet-Appeland Deham 2006].
The assumedcause of the NDT is an unprecedentedincreasein
individual female fertility, via a successionof efIècts on intermediate
demographicvariables.Theseeffectsrangefrom the sedentarization
of
local hunter-gathererpopulationsto the impact of sedentarizationon a
reduction in the frequency of breast-feeding.resulting ultimately in a
shorter duration of the reproductive cycle and in its corollary, an
increasein fertility. The NDT scenariois discussedin detail elsewhere
[Bocquet-Appeland Naji 2006].
ComparativeCivilizationsReview
40
I
rô
o.1
eooo.,oo!ooloolooo
_l"i-3"._?oo!
dt
Figure 1. Proftle of variation in the proportion of immature skeletons
in cemeteries (verticsl axis,labelled P (5-19)) relstive to local emergence of the Neolithic (horizontal axis, dt) (36 European and African
cemeteries)[Bocquet'Appel 2002].
o.
o.
\n o'
\n
o_3
r\
.l tr' , , ' I ' ' , ' | ' ' , ' I
ooo o .,,ooorooo
iobo_uooo_oooo_aooo_rooo_,,,
dt
F igure 2, Profile of variation in the proportion of immature skeletons
in cemeteries(vertical axis,Iabelled 15p5) relative to local emergence
of the Neolithic (horizontal axis, dt) (60 North Americqn cemeteries)
[Bocquet-Appel and Naii 2006].
Jean-PierreBocquet-Appel
tr)
4l
n
\r.)
n
O 1 r , , , , , 1 , , 1, ,
, l
0 .,000r000.000
ioô0u0000000.000r000.,000
dt
Figure 3. Signatures of the two Neolithic demographic transitions, in
EuropelNorth Africa and North America, relstive to local emergence
of the Neolithic [Bocquet-Appel and Naji 2006].
Some Cultural Consequencesof the Neolithic Demographic
Transition (NDn.
I now presentthreeculturalconsequences
of the impactof the NDT
detectedin the archaeologicaldata,and their interpretations.
Theseconcern the appearanceof i) supra-domesticspacesrcpresentedby enclosures and Neolithic enclosuresystems, ii) "lar-ee"villa-cesIBandy
20061,and iii) the time taken for some large villages to be diffèrentiated as supra-localchiefdoms[Bandy 20061.
The Neolithic enclosuresmake up a ratherlooseclescriptive
category. It embracesvast enclosureswith pits and palisadeswhosecc-rnstructionand lifetime spanneda greateror lesseramountof time. sintple enclosures
with little investmentof ener_ey,
highly structuredmonuments corespondingto formal models,and village palisadesor true
citadels[Andersen1997; Darvill and Thomas 200ll. Inrerpretarions
thus range from fortifications to cattle enclosures,from cemeteriesto
ceremonial or cultural centers, from central plazas to markets ancl
dwellinss.
42
ComoarativeCiviliziitionsReview
But there is a particulardimensionthat needsto be given to thc
interpretationof Neolithic enclosures: this residesin their probable
structural link with the processesgoverning the organizationof the
social sphereof the prehistoriccommunitiesconcerned,which bearwitness to a form of demographic pressure [see Bocquet-Appel and
Dubouloz 2003). Figure 4 shows the distribution, in relative chronology, of the enclosuresand Neolithic enclosuresystemsin 686 sitescentred in the Danube area in North-EasternEurope. It can be seenthat
thesereachedtheir maximum densityat arounddt = 750 years.This
duration is close to the tempo of the peak birth rate as estimatedfrom
paleoanthropological
datafrom Europeanand North African cemeteries
(seeFigure 3). The patternobservedin the distributionof the enclosures
is interpretedas a populationresponseto the NDT in the social sphere,
with a supra-domesticvalue (Bocquet-Appel and Dubouloz 2003,
2004).
Figure 5 showsthe distributionof villagesconsideredas sufficiently "large" (> 300 inhabitantsand covering 3 ha) relativeto the onsetof
the local agriculturalsystemin 3l archaeologicalsequencesworldwide
(Bandy 2006).The bimodal distributionof the villagesis interpretedby
Bandy as follows: The first mode, at dt=500 years,indicatesthe time
when large villages appearedfollowing the introductionof agriculture.
up to a maximum durationof 1500years,with 9/10""of the largevillages appearingduring the first millennium. This fits in well with the
estimatedaverageduration of the NDT. The appearanceof large villagesis regardedas an indicationof the end of the fusion of population
units at the beginningof agriculture[Bandy 2006].Subsequently,
during the NDT, rapid populationgrowth would havebeenan unprecedented difficulty facingpopulationsand the socialorganization
of their villages.
'+3
Jean-PierreBocquet-Appel
0
1000
2000
3000
dt
Figure 4. Number of Neolithic enclosures und enclosure systents(l{=
686), relative to the introduction of the Neotithic tocally [BocquetAppel and Dubouloz 2003,20041.
Làle
vill;.gE! relarive ro NDT
Figure 5. Distribution oflarge villages (> 300 inhubitants and covering 3 ha), relative to the introduction of the Neolithic tocaily (31
archaeological sequencesworldwide) [from M. Bandy 2006].
ComparativeCivi lizationsReview
44
Tyx 1vilage!'ôlem:elôntbNDT
m
:s
t((
::(
r,l'li.f,rrr!,rrd,:,. h:l
KK W
ffi
Figure 6, Distribution of the preceding data, subdivided into simple
large villages (on the left) and supra-local chiefdoms (on the right)
[from M. Bandy 2006].
The increasein community sizeswould have inducedincreasing
levels of intra-villageconflicts,implying the developmentof institutions at a higher level of social integrationto resolveconflicts between
individualsand groupsthan in the smallervillage units (Bandy 2006).
The second mode around dt = 2000 (Figure 5) is interpretedas the
appearanceof small political capitals or centres of chiefdoms, as a
responseto rising levelsof conflict.Figure6 showsboth distributions.
thatof largevillagesand thatof chiefdoms(Bandy2006).Althoughthis
interpretationof the archaeologicalpatternsappearingduring the NDT
will not be further discussedhere for reasonsof space,their importance
regardingthe resulting dynamics and cultural evcllutioncan ncvertheless be perceived.
Beforeansweringthe initial question,asto whetherpopulationwas
the causeor the effect of the major cultural shifi fiom hunter-gatherers
to producers,we needto return once more to the meanin-eof the r/t variable. First of all, it representsthe relative chronology. However.the r1t
variablehas anotherand more fundamentalmeaningthan that of a simple chronology.When the new Neolithicproductionsystcrnr.rrsintroduced into the population,the value of dt was zero. Therefbrerit is a
unit of time relativeto the economicchange.Thus,over and abovethe
Jean-PierreBocquet-Appel
understandingof dt in terms of relativechronology,dt is in fact a measurementof the paceof the economicshift. A graphsuchas that in Fi_eure
3 is thereforea representationof the shift, both demographic(immature
proportion) and economic (relative to the position dt = 0) in two subcontinentalgeographicalareas,within a common chronologicalframe.
It is the position of the two shifts relative to eachother that mtrkes
it possibleto provide an empirical answer to the recurrentquestionof
the causesof the cultural changein the context of the shifi to agriculture (Boserup 1965, Service 1968,Cohen 1977; for a summary,see
Graber 1997). Since dt = 0 indicatesthe start of the economic shift.
then, according to whether the beginning of the signal of the demographic shift precedes(dt < 0), coincideswith, or succeedsthe start of
the economicshift (dt 0) representedon the horizontalaxis, it is possible to determineif the growth of the populationis the causeor the effect
of this shift.
Looking at Figure 3, it can be seenthat the demographicreaction
neither precedesnor succeedsthe economic change.but strictly coincides with it. The common variableunderlyingthe fertility explosion
and the establishmentof the farming system is sedentarism(and its
impact on suckling frequency). This is probablythe reasonwhy the two
patterns,the fertility explosion and the start of the farming system.are
superimposed.But the establishmentof the farming systemis not the
causeof sedentarism.The scenariosfor the emergenceof seclentarism
vary from region to region: it may precedethe farming systemas in the
NE and SW of North America [Bandy and al 2007: Kholer et al. 2007]
or occur simultaneouslyas with the PPNA in the Levant [Guerreroancl
al 20071.
This leadsus to concludethat populationwas at once the causean<l
the effect of this shift in civilization.The cause,becauseby exerting
pressureon the carrying capacityofthe hunter-gatherer
productionsystem, populationalso increasedthe probability of a systemshift: and the
consequence,becauseas soon as the new economic systemwas introduced,the populationtendedto grow towardsthe new carrying capacity of the horticulturist-farmersystem,as attestedby the ferfility explosion. This seemsto agreewith the predictionsof Malthus-Boserup's
demographicmodel [Wood 1998,Lee 1987].
The considerableincreasein population. in regional pocketson a
worldwide scalebetween11.000-3.500
yearsBP, generatedpreviously
unknown forms of socio-economicand political organization,such as
village units, which appearin 35 archaeologicallevels on a worlclwicie
46
C o m p a r a t i v eC i v i l i z a t i o n sR e l ' i e w
scale,300yearson averageafter the onsetof the NDT. or chiefdoms.
which appear nearly 2000 years afier [Bandy 20061. The NDT was
and the adoption.
causedby the conjunctionof foragersedentarization
in certainregions,of a farming economy.which made it pclssibletor
considerablepotentialdemographicgrowth to bc supportedeconorllically.
demoglaphicgrorvth it
But the NDT, becauseof the unprecedented
generated,inducedincalculablymore cornplexsclcial.politiclrl.economic and ideologicalrelationshipscomparedto the reliitivelysinrple
community-basedforager societies,which had remainedpractically
unchangedfor perhapstensof thousandsof years. The NDT filrmeclthe
basisof the world of preindustrialpopulations'which is currentll'disappearingwith the contemporarydemographictrrrnsition.
Conclusion
Among the major causesof shifis and reversalsin civilizations.
population size and demographicdynamics arc commonly thou-uhtto
haveplayeda role. However,historicaltime seriespt'oduceresultsthat
on rlla.itlrculturdata,which concentriltc
Archaeological
areambiguous.
al shiftsin historycoveringseveralmillennia.showthatthedcmographwith the culturalshilt.
ic responseof the populationwas simultaneous
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