U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Primary Credit Analysts: Jessica L Wood, Chicago (1) 312-233-7004; [email protected] Shivani Singh, New York (1) 212-438-3120; [email protected] Secondary Contact: Jessica A Matsumori, San Francisco (1) 415-371-5083; [email protected] Research Assistants: Ryan Quakenbush, Chicago Phillip A Pena, San Francisco Table Of Contents Demand And Financial Ratios Help Measure Credit Quality Ratings Distribution And Characteristics Enrollment And Demand Medians Provide Context Financial Medians Provide Perspective Financial Resource Ratios Measuring The Debt Burden WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 1 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories During fiscal 2014, U.S. public colleges and universities continued to struggle with many of the same challenges they have faced for the past few years, balancing the demands of growing expenditures with less state appropriations than in prior years, while continuing to address student affordability and access. However, strong investment market performance continued during fiscal 2014 across the higher education industry, which contributed to increased endowment market values and in most cases, stronger financial resources. The majority of the financial ratios and benchmarks that are key to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' credit analyses either remained stable or improved across the U.S. public colleges and universities in fiscal 2014, reflecting institutions' enhanced financial flexibility, primarily because of improved endowment performance. A historically stable sector with about 90% of ratings affirmed each year, the sector saw more rating actions and outlook revisions than previous years (see our higher education sector outlook, published Jan. 15, 2015). While the absolute number of rating changes in 2014 was similar with that of 2013, the ratio of downgrades to upgrades increased for the fourth consecutive year. The number of institutions with negative outlooks (10%) is still more than the number of institutions with positive outlooks (7%), while 81% of all rated public institutions have stable outlooks. Based on our analysis of the sector's medians, Standard & Poor's expects continued rating pressure, particularly at the lower end of the rating scale, because of persistent operating stress and a delayed recovery from the Great Recession. Overview • Our analysis shows relative stability or improvement of financial medians for U.S. public colleges and universities in fiscal 2014. • Endowment returns were strong in fiscal 2014, but other financial and budgetary pressures remain. • Debt service burdens decreased in fiscal 2014 as institutions refinanced and capitalized on low interest rates • Although demand has held up for most public higher education institutions, maintaining this will be key, given that state appropriations remain below pre-Great Recession levels, and affordability problems continue. In fiscal 2014, overall net operating income performance for institutions in Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' higher rating categories --'AAA' and 'AA' -- remained positive but was negative for the lower rating categories of 'A', 'BBB', and speculative grade. In our view, this reflects the growing pressures related to affordability combined with increased competition for students, which is more severe in our lower rating categories. Most higher-rated public universities, such as the flagship state universities and land-grant institutions, withstood increasing demographic and competitive pressures. In fact, some performed very well. In fiscal 2013, we rated just seven institutions 'AA+', but in fiscal 2014, we upgraded the ratings on both Michigan State University and the University of Pittsburgh to 'AA+'. While most endowment market values grew significantly during fiscal 2014, other financial pressures remained, which WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 2 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories for some public universities have been exacerbated by flat-to-declining enrollment and falling net tuition revenues. We expect higher-rated public universities to retain or improve their credit profiles because they tend to have a broader, more national draw, greater revenue diversity, and enjoy an established history of successful fundraising and strong balance sheets. Conversely, many weaker public universities, which typically have smaller endowments and more regional student bodies, may not have this type of financial flexibility, and thus, are at greater risk. Demand And Financial Ratios Help Measure Credit Quality The key elements of our criteria, which include an analysis of demand and enrollment, debt and financial ratios, as well as qualitative factors such as our assessment of management, provide the basis for our view of the sector's credit characteristics. From a broad perspective, the ratios provide a clear picture of the difference in credit fundamentals from one rating category to another. Our ratios fall into two main categories: demand and financial. Both sets of ratios are highly correlative with credit quality, and the differences between the ratings categories become more distinct over time. Demand and financial ratios are pivotal in measuring the credit quality of U.S. higher education institutions: We calculate means and medians to assess the financial and operational health of individual institutions, gauge industrywide trends, and produce meaningful comparisons of rating categories (see table 1). We publish these medians as general benchmarks and measures to observe industry trends. However, the credit analysis for any particular institution involves an assessment of many unquantifiable risks that are not included in this article. Therefore, these medians should not be considered thresholds to achieve a particular rating. Table 1 Selected Financial Ratios For Public Colleges And Universities (Fiscal 2014) -- Rating -Ratings AAA AA A 4 64 90 3 2 163 Median 45,198 34,431 13,381 2,496 31,722 21,653 Mean 81,138 65,880 15,337 9,406 31,722 37,022 Median 41,044 32,265 10,819 2,148 30,272 17,971 Mean 68,048 52,631 12,462 7,500 30,272 29,690 Sample size BBB Spec Grade Sector Wide Enrollment and Demand Total Headcount Total FTE Enrollment Undergraduates as a % of total enrollment Median 69.4 77.7 85.2 91.2 88.9 81.5 Mean 69.5 75.5 83.1 90.9 88.9 80.0 Median 31.7 68.6 72.5 74.7 67.4 69.7 Mean 37.8 66.9 72.1 76.0 67.4 69.1 Freshman Acceptance Rate (%) WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 3 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 1 Selected Financial Ratios For Public Colleges And Universities (Fiscal 2014) (cont.) Average SAT scores Median 1,329 1,200 1,050 1,258 861 1,128 Mean 1,322 1,266 1,081 1,258 861 1,169 Median 30.0 25.1 22.1 22.0 17.6 23.0 Mean 29.3 25.1 22.4 21.9 17.6 23.5 Median 96.6 85.0 73.2 73.0 70.2 78.0 Mean 95.9 84.7 73.8 71.6 70.2 78.2 Median 88.0 55.4 42.0 36.6 46.0 47.1 Mean 86.0 56.8 43.8 35.8 46.0 49.4 Median 71.2 77.1 86.1 80.8 69.0 80.0 Mean 72.0 75.6 81.1 80.8 69.0 78.2 Median 15.2 1.8 (0.4) (1.6) (3.2) 0.6 Mean 12.9 1.8 (0.1) (3.5) (3.2) 0.9 Median 8.2 21.4 26.6 22.3 48.9 23.4 Mean 9.7 21.9 26.8 22.3 48.9 24.6 Median 16.9 32.4 44.3 60.3 24.4 39.3 Mean 15.9 31.9 44.0 56.7 24.4 38.6 Median 14.4 15.8 7.8 7.0 16.6 11.1 Mean 15.5 16.2 10.2 7.0 16.6 12.7 Median 3.0 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.5 2.2 Mean 3.2 3.4 2.3 0.7 0.5 2.8 Average ACT scores Retention Rate (%) 5 Year Graduation Rate (%) In-state Students (%) Financial Performance Net Adjusted Operating Income (%) Revenue Diversity State appropriations to revenue (%) Gross tuition to revenue (%) Grants and contracts to revenue (%) Gifts and Pledges to revenue (%) Investment and endowment income to revenue (%) Median 21.4 2.4 0.7 1.3 0.6 1.3 Mean 21.8 3.2 1.5 2.0 0.6 2.6 Median 2.8 10.7 11.5 19.4 4.8 11.1 Mean 2.6 10.4 11.7 17.4 4.8 11.1 Auxiliary operations to revenue (%) WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 4 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 1 Selected Financial Ratios For Public Colleges And Universities (Fiscal 2014) (cont.) Financial Aid and Expense Financial aid burden as a percentage of expenses (%) Median 3.9 7.3 10.4 15.3 7.0 9.2 Mean 4.0 7.9 10.6 15.3 7.0 9.4 Instruction expense as a percentage of expenses (%) Median 17.8 26.5 32.5 29.1 25.4 30.4 Mean 18.5 28.6 34.9 30.2 25.4 31.8 6,958,322 631,508 84,593 15,397 12,583 218,308 12,455,201 943,995 136,668 30,962 12,583 1,086,499 Endowment University endowment market value ($000s) Median Mean Foundation endowment market value ($000s) Median 1,180,577 646,108 79,216 24,667 74,794 152,807 Mean 1,180,577 894,355 132,130 35,864 74,794 438,761 Financial Resource Ratios Cash and investments to operations (%) Median 217.7 63.5 47.2 31.6 20.1 53.8 Mean 228.0 69.7 54.0 29.1 20.1 63.6 Median 520.2 163.0 97.3 19.4 30.1 120.6 Mean 507.3 182.1 118.0 43.1 30.1 150.1 Median 77.1 36.1 32.5 14.2 0.1 33.0 Mean 75.5 38.2 35.6 13.9 0.1 36.8 Median 155.7 102.1 62.1 14.3 1.7 75.2 Mean 187.1 103.5 82.4 21.0 1.7 91.0 Cash and investments to debt (%) Adjusted UNA to operations (%) Adjusted UNA to debt (%) Debt Ratios Total outstanding debt ($000s) Median 1,635,872 689,891 141,343 88,720 423,399 244,375 Mean 3,144,459 1,212,443 214,780 116,094 423,399 674,393 Median 3.1 3.3 3.9 5.9 7.5 3.7 Mean 4.3 3.9 4.9 5.9 7.5 4.5 Median 10.7 12.2 13.2 20.1 12.1 12.5 Mean 10.5 12.6 13.4 19.6 12.1 13.1 Current debt service burden (%) Average age of plant (years) WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 5 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 1 Selected Financial Ratios For Public Colleges And Universities (Fiscal 2014) (cont.) MADS Burden (%) Median 3.4 3.5 4.4 4.2 7.6 4.1 Mean 3.8 3.8 5.2 8.2 7.6 4.8 Median 9.8 5.4 3.3 0.3 0.5 3.5 Mean 9.8 8.6 8.7 0.3 0.5 8.3 Median 50,220 18,963 10,943 12,973 25,455 14,497 Mean 49,162 22,297 19,154 22,148 25,455 21,264 9,853 8,280 5,440 4,693 12,338 7,232 10,857 9,462 6,769 4,693 12,338 7,968 Median 186,372 16,651 4,895 4,234 2,196 8,661 Mean 174,184 18,975 14,242 4,234 2,196 24,032 OPEB as % of total liability Full-Time Equivalent Ratios Total debt per FTE ($) State appropriations per FTE ($) Median Mean Endowment per FTE ($) Ratings Distribution And Characteristics The total sample size for our public college and university ratios remained fairly flat since fiscal 2013's report, with only marginal shifts in the number of institutions per category. For fiscal 2014, our report on public university ratios covers 163 institutions (compared to 162 in 2013) and includes several large systems. During 2014, Standard & Poor's published two new public university ratings: the University of Oregon (AA-/Stable) and the University of North Alabama (A/Stable). We derived data for this report from only our public ratings on unlimited student fee (USF) debt, which is how we define the highest rating of an institution's underlying credit characteristics – essentially, equivalent to a private institution's general obligation (GO) rating. When an institution does not have any rated debt, but does have an ICR (issuer credit rating), we have included these USF equivalent ratings also. Although we rate many other types of debt for public universities, such as housing or auxiliary-secured ratings, and provide numerous confidential ratings, the data in this report includes only ratings that are public and reflect the underlying credit characteristics of the university, college, or system. Also, while we hold public, USF equivalent ratings on many community colleges and community college systems, for the purposes of this report, we have included only our ratings on four-year institutions or systems that primarily comprise four-year programs to maintain data consistency and enable a meaningful comparison between similar entities. The information in this report reflects fiscal 2014 audited information and the corresponding fall 2013 enterprise data (enrollment, etc). Several public universities use private university FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 6 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories accounting instead of GASB (Governmental Accounting Standards Board) accounting, and for these universities we have included their enterprise profile information but not their financial profile information. All ratings in this report are as of May 15, 2015. Chart 1 In fiscal 2014, the average credit rating on public colleges and universities is 'A+/Stable', unchanged from fiscal 2013. About 94% of our public university ratings fall between 'AA+' and 'A-', with the majority of rated debt (55%) in the 'A' category having mostly stable outlooks (see charts 2 and 3). The 'AA' category includes many of the country's largest systems -- such as the University of California -- in which we rate the system rather than individual institutions. Therefore, the 'AA' category, which constitutes about 39% of the total rating distribution, represents a greater number of institutions than the actual number of ratings (64). WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 7 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Chart 2 Just four public universities and systems (University of Virginia, University of Texas System,University of Michigan, and University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) have 'AAA' rated debt. At the other end of the rating spectrum, the 'BBB' category has three institutions: Lake Superior State University, Western State Colorado University, and Eastern Michigan University. The only speculative-grade rated public institutions are University of Puerto Rico ('CCC+/CWNeg'; with ties to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico) and the Alabama State University (B/Negative). In contrast to the public colleges and universities ratings distribution, not-for-profit private colleges and universities have a much greater number of GO debt ratings in the 'BBB' and speculative-grade categories (103, combined) as well as a greater number of 'AAA' ratings (12). WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 8 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Chart 3 Enrollment And Demand Medians Provide Context In prior median reports, we included matriculation rates in our assessment of the demand profile for public universities. However, we have not included matriculation rates as a subfactor for public universities for the fiscal 2014 medians because we have not observed a strong correlation between matriculation rates and a public university's financial strength, governmental willingness to support the university, or overall credit quality. During the past few years, enrollment has been flat to declining at many regional public universities, which we believe indicates a highly competitive landscape and unfavorable demographics, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. At the same time, during fiscal 2014, enrollment at the highest-rated institutions remained stable or grew modestly, even as competition for students intensified across all rating categories. While many universities continue to report increased applications, enrollment has not grown as fast and in many cases has declined -- which we believe illustrates that students are looking at an increasing number of schools to broaden their options, both programmatic and financial. Although many universities targeted enrollment growth during the past few years to offset state appropriation declines, WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 9 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories enrollments are slowing compared with the previous few years. This may be because many institutions have reached physical capacity, have limited additional financial aid dollars for expansion, or have increased their strategic focus on retention and are becoming more selective -- a strategy that causes enrollments to decline but will eventually improve retention rates. As many management teams indicated to us: It is cheaper to keep a student than recruit a new one. Chart 4 In 2014, institutions in the 'BBB' rating category saw a decrease in headcount and full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment in fiscal 2014 compared with fiscal 2013, which is reflective of their weaker demand profiles. We believe lower-rated public universities, which often have a weak national student draw, will continue to be subjected to competitive stress during the next few years as families are more price-sensitive than they were five or 10 years ago. We also anticipate that weak demographics will continue to pressure enrollments. At the other end of the spectrum, FTE enrollment increased in fiscal 2014 for the 'AAA,' 'AA, and 'A' categories. We believe enrollment at higher-rated institutions remains diverse, with many major research universities in the 'AA' category providing substantial graduate and professional programs, which can help compensate for declines in undergraduate enrollment. Except for the 'AAA' rating category, all other rating categories saw weaker freshman admissions selectivity in fiscal 2014 compared with fiscal 2013. This was particularly true for institutions in the 'A' and 'BBB' categories, indicating fierce competition for students. Although retention and graduation rates increased across WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 10 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories most rating categories, we observed a more dramatic difference between the upper and lower rating categories. Offsetting these trends in demand and enrollment to some extent are financial-aid expenses, which have significantly increased as a percent of operating expense in recent years. We believe that the growth in financial aid will continue to pressure institutions that have fewer financial resources. In addition, we expect the sector-wide shift to increased dependence on student-generated revenues (such as tuition, dining fees, and housing fees) to continue. As a result, net operating margins could become more stressed and unpredictable during the next few years as institutions seek tuition price points that enable them to increase enrollment while maintaining or enhancing student quality and providing sustainable levels of financial aid. Chart 5 Financial Medians Provide Perspective Our analysis of a public institution's financial strength covers an assessment of revenue and expense composition, financial operating performance, financial resources, and debt burden. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 11 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Operating performance Operating performance in the public university sector is often difficult to determine based on the varying audit presentation styles and the interaction and support (or lack thereof) from the state. As such, we normalize operations year-over-year to reduce variability resulting from one-time revenues and expenses. One of the most common adjustments Standard & Poor's makes is to add back federal financial aid (mostly Pell Grants) and state appropriations as revenues to estimate operating performance. Because many public universities hold some or all of their endowment investments at the university level, Standard & Poor's adjusts for this by excluding long-term investment gains and losses in our calculation of operating results. We also adjust for endowment draws used for operating expenses, if they are not already included in the operating statement. In fiscal 2014, generally, tuition increases continued and state appropriations were either stable or increased. For institutions that contained costs and benefited from increased enrollment, overall operating results were mostly balanced on a generally accepted accounting principles basis (GAAP). The rating categories that generated median operating deficits on a GAAP basis in fiscal 2014 were the lower-rated categories. Overall, the data indicates the strongest median operating margins occurred in the 'AAA' category at 15.2% for adjusted net operating income on a GAAP basis. We note that median operating margins are only positive on a GAAP basis in the 'AAA' and 'AA' rating categories, which indicates that many lower-rated universities do not budget for depreciation when formulating budgets. Operating margins were negative for the lower-rated 'A', 'BBB', and speculative-grade rating categories. However, we believe operating margins are less correlative to rating categories unless combined with other measures, such as revenue diversity and financial resource ratios. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 12 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Chart 6 For fiscal 2014, revenues from tuition and fees increased from fiscal 2013 levels across all rating categories, which is indicative of the sector's greater reliance on student-generated revenues -- particularly as state appropriations remain well below pre-recession levels. The distribution of revenue diversity is stark across rating categories: On average, the 'AAA' rated institutions had a relatively small portion of revenue derived from tuition and fees with a 16.9% median, while the 'BBB' rated category was the most highly tuition dependent at 60.3% (see chart 6), with the other categories falling in between. The three other major revenue categories amongst the higher-rated institutions were: state appropriations, investment and endowment income, and grants and contracts (see table 1). State appropriations During the past five years, most public universities have had their state appropriations cut -- and for some, funding frameworks and incentives have changed. Many states are now allocating a portion of state appropriations based on performance-based metrics -- such as retention and graduation rates, and in particular, successful course and degree completion. Although performance-based funding goals differ by state, this type of funding model is a growing trend in higher education. In most states, the typical percentage of higher education funding tied to performance is still relatively small at between 2% and 5%. However, with increasing pressure on state budgets for accountability and WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 13 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories return on investment, this percentage appears to be growing. At this time, we do not anticipate any ratings impact based on these state funding changes, but it will be interesting to see how the formulas change over time. In general, current state appropriations represent a much smaller portion of public university budgets than they did historically, with student-generated revenues (tuition, fees, and auxiliary revenues) now accounting for a larger component. In fiscal 2014, state funding seems to have finally stabilized and some states even saw increases in state appropriations. The distribution of state appropriations dependency is stark across rating categories: The 'AAA' rated institutions on average had a relatively small portion of revenues derived from state appropriations with an 8.2% median, while the speculative grade category was the most highly state appropriation-dependent at 48.9%, with the other categories falling somewhere in between. We believe states will continue to struggle to increase higher education funding and that institutions will become increasingly dependent on student-generated revenues due to weak state revenues and other critical funding priorities. Chart 7 Endowments Investment and endowment income are significant revenue sources in the higher-rating categories; many institutions use endowment income to fund financial aid and other programs. Many institutions' endowment market returns were positive in fiscal 2014, which is a continuation of strong investment returns seen in fiscal 2013. During fiscal 2014, WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 14 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories endowment market values grew in each rating category. The median endowment market value for the four institutions in the 'AAA' category was approximately $7 billion. This represents a 15.3% increase compared with the $6 billion median endowment in fiscal 2013, although it is lower than the $8.4 billion median endowment for 'AAA' rated private colleges and universities. Chart 8 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 15 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Chart 9 Similarly, increases in endowment value at the 'AA' rating category highlight higher-than-average investment returns and an average 5% endowment draw. The median endowment market value for institutions in the 'AA' category was $631.5 million, up 7.9% compared with $585.1 million in fiscal 2013. The median endowment market value for institutions in the 'BBB' category was $15.4 million in fiscal 2014, compared with roughly $9 million in fiscal 2013. The National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) reported average market returns of 15.5% (net of fees) in their Fiscal 2014 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments published on Jan. 29, 2015. Although the market returns we observed for most institutions were slightly lower than the NACUBO study, we believe our calculation reflects the noise associated with varied fiscal year-end dates and inconsistencies in endowment market value reporting in audited financial statements. The NACUBO study also includes more than 850 institutions, while we include just 163 in our universe. Financial Resource Ratios Financial resource ratios are paramount to our analysis, as they reflect the relative strength of the university's balance sheet. While we analyze an institution's cash and investments, our view is that this is typically a less conservative measure of balance sheet strength, given the inclusion of restricted endowment funds. We primarily evaluate an WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 16 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories institution's available resources (for public universities -- unrestricted net assets (UNA; or adjusted UNA, which includes unrestricted foundation assets and debt service reserves) relative to both operating expenses and debt. We also adjust our financial resource ratios to include long-term other postemployment benefit (OPEB) liabilities, as we recognize that these obligations are rising for many public universities, and factor this into our analysis. Compared with those of their private counterparts, public universities generally have lower financial resource ratios because of their much smaller endowment market values. Overall, the median ratios for the entire public institution universe ("sector-wide") are a combination of both 'AA' and 'A' categories, with a median adjusted UNA-to-operating expenses ratio at 33.0% and a median adjusted UNA-to-debt ratio at 75.2%. Within each rating category, adjusted UNA to operating expenses and debt strengthened in fiscal 2014, due largely to strong investment returns. The median adjusted UNA-to-debt ratio for the 'AA' rated category increased to 102.1% in fiscal 2014, from 88.3% in fiscal 2013; while the same ratio for the 'A' rated category increased to 62.1% in fiscal 2014, from 53.3% in fiscal 2013. Our expectation, as in the past, is that an institution's financial resource ratios will likely vary with endowment market values, because a significant portion of UNA results from institutional endowments (see charts 10 and 11). Looking forward, we believe it is unlikely that financial resource ratios will continue to grow at the robust rate seen in fiscal 2014 as market investment returns have been more modest so far in fiscal 2015, and debt issuance has been increasing. Chart 10 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 17 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories The four entities in the 'AAA' rating category have significantly larger endowments, which is also reflected in their much stronger median adjusted UNA to debt ratios (155.7%) and adjusted UNA-to-operating expenses ratios (77.1%). At the other end of the spectrum, the medians for the same ratios in the 'BBB' rating category were much lower, demonstrating very little financial flexibility related to available resources, as reflected in adjusted UNA to debt ratios at 14.3%, and adjusted UNA-to-operating expenses ratios at 14.2%. Chart 11 Several public universities participate in large defined benefit pension plans administered by their respective states. The resulting pension liabilities for these state pension plans have historically been recorded on the state's balance sheet. We expect accounting changes effective for fiscal 2015 (Government Accounting Standards Board, Statement 68, "Accounting and Financial Reporting for Pensions") to have an impact on university financial resource ratios because each university must recognize a liability in its financial statements for its proportionate share of the net pension liability of all employers for pension benefits to its employees through the state plan. This liability recognition will likely, all else being equal, reduce UNA (an equity-based measure) for fiscal 2015 and future years. At this time, not all rated public universities have provided estimates of their proportionate share of these unfunded pension liabilities. We will evaluate the potential impact of these liabilities on university financial resource ratios once details become clearer. However, we do not anticipate any rating changes due to this reporting requirement, as the ultimate WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 18 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories responsibility for these pension liabilities is not expected to change. Measuring The Debt Burden Standard & Poor's measures a university's debt burden primarily by comparing annual debt service, as well as maximum annual debt service (MADS) with annual operating expenses. While the debt load increased across most rating categories during fiscal 2014, the average debt service burden decreased for each rating category due to institutions issuing debt and undertaking debt refundings at favorable interest rates. We have seen refundings continue through fiscal 2015 because interest rates have remained low. We have also found that universities, particularly those in ther higher rating categories, accelerated or expanded debt plans to take advantage of favorable borrowings costs in fiscal 2015. The increased debt levels will not affect our median ratios until 2015 and are not captured in the current data. Chart 12 The nominal amount of debt outstanding remained relatively flat across our rated universe. Debt was fairly flat in the 'AAA' category, but increased slightly in the 'AA' and 'A' categories. This trend demonstrates institutions' need to finance building projects with debt regardless of enrollment growth as well as continued competitive pressures at the WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 19 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories midrange universities, which require updated facilities to attract students. Many universities put major capital projects on hold after the Great Recession, but felt comfortable issuing new-money debt following a positive market performance in 2013 and again in 2014. Another debt measure we evaluate is the average age of an institution's physical plant or facilities. We view deferred maintenance as a future liability, and changes in average age of plant reflect a potential need to invest more heavily in physical plant. We believe that tracking the age of campus infrastructure is a key ratio, because campus facilities and attractiveness are important selling points in the highly competitive higher education market. In fiscal 2014, the average plant age increased for all rating categories. As age of plant rises, we believe it is critical that colleges and universities invest prudently to update and renovate facilities, with either internal funds or external funds, such as debt or gifts. We believe institutions will continue to identify, prioritize, and complete specific deferred maintenance projects and develop capital budgets to strategically formulate and address future maintenance efforts. Looking forward to fiscal 2015 median data and into fiscal 2016, we anticipate that U.S. public colleges and universities will continue to struggle with balancing the demands of growing expenditures with less state appropriations, while addressing student affordability amid slow economic recovery. We anticipate greater debt loads as institutions continue to issue debt at low interest rates. We also think it is unlikely that financial resource ratios will continue to grow at the same strong rate in fiscal 2015 as in fiscal 2014 given more modest market returns thus far in fiscal 2015. This could pressure balance sheets, in our view, and contribute to rating pressure, particularly among institutions in the lower rating categories. Table 2 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By State Name Rating Outlook Alaska University of Alaska AA- Stable Alabama Alabama State University B Negative Auburn University AA- Stable Jacksonville State University A Stable Troy University A+ Stable University of Alabama Birmingham AA- University of Alabama Huntsville A+ University of Alabama AA- University of Montevallo A Stable University of North Alabama A Stable University of South Alabama A+ Stable Arizona State University AA Negative Northern Arizona University A+ Stable University of Arizona AA- Stable Positive Stable Positive Arizona WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 20 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 2 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By State (cont.) California California State University System AA- Stable University of California System AA Stable Colorado Colorado School of Mines A Positive Colorado State University System A+ Metropolitan State University of Denver A Stable University of Northern Colorado A Stable Western State Colorado University BBB+ Stable AA- Stable University of Delaware AA+ Stable Delaware State University A- Stable Florida Atlantic University A+ Stable Florida Gulf Coast University A Stable Florida International University AA- Stable Florida State University AA Stable University of Central Florida AA- Stable University of Florida AA Stable University of North Florida A+ Stable University of South Florida AA- Stable A+ Stable Iowa State University of Science and Technology AA Stable State University of Iowa (S U I) AA Stable University of Northern Iowa A Stable Boise State University A+ Stable Idaho State University A Stable University of Idaho A+ Stable Negative Connecticut University of Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii University of Hawaii Iowa Idaho Illinois Eastern Illinois University A- Negative Governors State University A- Negative Illinois State University A+ Negative Northeastern Illinois University A- Negative Southern Illinois University A WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT Stable JULY 10, 2015 21 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 2 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By State (cont.) University of Illinois AA- Western Illinois University A- Stable Negative Indiana Ball State University AA- Stable Indiana University AA+ Stable Purdue University AA+ Stable University of Southern Indiana A Stable Emporia State University A Stable Fort Hays State University A Stable Kansas State University AA- Stable Pittsburg State University A- Stable University of Kansas AA Kansas Negative Kentucky Eastern Kentucky University A Stable Northern Kentucky University A Stable University of Kentucky AA Stable University of Louisville AA- Stable Western Kentucky University A Stable Louisiana Nicholls State University A- CWNEG University of Louisiana Lafayette A CWNEG Massachusetts University of Massachusetts AA- Stable Worcester State University A Stable Morgan State University A+ Stable University System of Maryland AA+ Negative AA- Negative Maryland Maine University of Maine System Michigan Central Michigan University A+ Eastern Michigan University BBB+ Ferris State University A Grand Valley State University A+ Stable Lake Superior State University BBB+ Stable Michigan State University AA+ Northern Michigan University A Negative Saginaw Valley State University A Stable WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT Stable Stable Positive Stable JULY 10, 2015 22 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 2 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By State (cont.) University of Michigan AAA Stable Wayne State University AA- Western Michigan University A Stable Minnesota State College & University AA- Stable University of Minnesota AA Stable Missouri Southern State University A- Stable Missouri State University A+ Stable Missouri Western State University A- Stable Southeast Missouri State University A Stable University of Central Missouri A Positive University of Missouri System AA+ Stable Delta State University A+ Stable University of Mississippi AA Stable University of Southern Mississippi A Stable Montana State University A+ Stable University of Montana A+ Stable East Carolina University AA- Stable Fayetteville State University A- Stable North Carolina State University at Raleigh AA Stable University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill AAA Stable University of North Carolina at Charlotte A+ Stable University of North Carolina at Greensboro A Stable University of North Carolina at Pembroke A- Stable Winston-Salem State University A- Stable Bismarck State College A Stable Mayville State University A- Stable Minot State University A Stable North Dakota State University AA- Stable University of North Dakota AA- Stable Valley City State University A- Stable Nebraska State College A+ Stable University of Nebraska System AA Positive Negative Minnesota Missouri Mississippi Montana North Carolina North Dakota Nebraska WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 23 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 2 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By State (cont.) New Hampshire University System of New Hampshire A+ Positive New Jersey College of New Jersey A Stable Kean University A- Stable New Jersey Institute of Technology A Stable Ramapo College A Stable Rowan University A Stable Rutgers University AA- Negative New Mexico New Mexico Institute of Mining & Technology A+ Stable New Mexico State University AA Negative University of New Mexico AA Stable AA- Stable City University of New York AA- Stable State University of New York AA- Stable Bowling Green State University A+ Stable Cleveland State University A+ Stable Kent State University A+ Stable Miami University A+ Stable Ohio State University AA Stable Ohio University A+ Stable University of Cincinnati AA- Stable University of Toledo A Stable Youngstown State University A+ Nevada Nevada System of Higher Education New York Ohio Negative Oklahoma Cameron University A- Stable Northeastern State University A Stable Oklahoma State University AA- Stable Southwestern Oklahoma State University A Stable University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center AA- Stable University of Oklahoma AA- Stable Oregon Oregon Health & Science University A+ University of Oregon AA- WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT Positive Stable JULY 10, 2015 24 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 2 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By State (cont.) Pennsylvania Indiana University of Pennsylvania A- Stable Pennsylvania State University AA Stable Temple University A+ Stable University of Pittsburgh AA+ Stable Puerto Rico University of Puerto Rico CCC+ CWNEG Rhode Island University of Rhode Island A+ Stable AA- Stable A+ Stable Texas A&M University AA+ Stable Texas Tech University System AA Positive Texas Woman's University A Positive University of Houston AA Stable University of Texas System AAA Stable South Carolina Clemson University South Dakota South Dakota University System Texas Utah University of Utah AA Positive College of William & Mary AA Stable Old Dominion University A+ Stable University of Virginia AAA Stable Virginia Commonwealth University AA- Stable Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University AA Stable University of Vermont & State Agricultural College A+ Stable Virginia Vermont Vermont State College A Negative Washington University of Washington AA+ Stable Washington State University AA- Stable Western Washington University A+ Stable A Stable AA- Stable West Virginia West Virginia University Wyoming University of Wyoming WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 25 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 2 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By State (cont.) * Ratings as of May 15, 2015 Table 3 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By Rating Category Name State Outlook University of Michigan MI Stable University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill NC Stable University of Texas System TX Stable University of Virginia VA Stable Indiana University IN Stable Michigan State University MI Stable Purdue University IN Stable Texas A&M University TX Stable AAA AA+ University of Delaware DE Stable MO Stable PA Stable University of Washington WA Stable University System of Maryland MD Negative Arizona State University AZ Negative College of William & Mary VA Stable Florida State University FL Stable Iowa State University of Science and Technology IA Stable New Mexico State University NM Negative North Carolina State University at Raleigh NC Stable The Ohio State University OH Stable Pennsylvania State University PA Stable University of Missouri System University of Pittsburgh AA State University of Iowa (S U I) IA Stable Texas Tech University System TX Positive University of California System CA Stable University of Florida FL Stable University of Houston TX Stable University of Kansas KS Negative University of Kentucky KY Stable University of Minnesota MN Stable University of Mississippi MS Stable University of Nebraska System NE Positive University of New Mexico NM Stable University of Utah UT Positive WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 26 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 3 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By Rating Category (cont.) Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University VA Stable Auburn University AL Stable Ball State University IN Stable California State University System CA Stable City University of New York NY Stable Clemson University SC Stable East Carolina University NC Stable Florida International University FL Stable Kansas State University KS Stable MN Stable Nevada System of Higher Education NV Stable North Dakota State University ND Stable Oklahoma State University OK Stable Rutgers University NJ Negative State University of New York NY Stable University of Alabama Birmingham AL Positive University of Alabama AL Positive University of Alaska AK Stable University of Arizona AZ Stable University of Central Florida FL Stable University of Cincinnati OH Stable University of Connecticut CT Stable IL Stable KY Stable University of Maine System ME Negative University of Massachusetts MA Stable University of North Dakota ND Stable University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center OK Stable University of Oklahoma OK Stable University of Oregon OR Stable University of South Florida FL Stable University of Wyoming WY Stable Virginia Commonwealth University VA Stable Washington State University WA Stable MI Negative ID Stable Bowling Green State University OH Stable Central Michigan University MI Stable Cleveland State University OH Stable AA- Minnesota State College & University University of Illinois University of Louisville Wayne State University A+ Boise State University WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 27 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 3 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By Rating Category (cont.) Colorado State University System CO Negative Delta State University MS Stable Florida Atlantic University FL Stable Grand Valley State University MI Stable IL Negative Kent State University OH Stable Miami University OH Stable Missouri State University MO Stable Montana State University MT Stable Morgan State University MD Stable Nebraska State College NE Stable New Mexico Inst of Mining & Tech Illinois State University NM Stable Northern Arizona University AZ Stable Ohio University OH Stable Old Dominion University VA Stable Oregon Health & Science University OR Positive South Dakota University System SD Stable Temple University PA Stable Troy University AL Stable University of Alabama Huntsville AL Stable University of Hawaii HI Stable University of Idaho ID Stable University of Montana MT Stable University of North Carolina at Charlotte NC Stable University of North Florida FL Stable University of Rhode Island RI Stable University of South Alabama AL Stable University of Vermont & State Agricultural College VT Stable University System of New Hampshire NH Positive Western Washington University WA Stable Youngstown State University OH Negative Bismarck State College ND Stable College of New Jersey NJ Stable Colorado School of Mines CO Positive Eastern Kentucky University KY Stable Emporia State University KS Stable Ferris State University MI Positive Florida Gulf Coast University FL Stable Fort Hays State University KS Stable Idaho State University ID Stable A WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 28 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 3 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By Rating Category (cont.) Jacksonville State University AL Stable Metropolitan State University of Denver CO Stable Minot State University ND Stable New Jersey Institute of Technology NJ Stable Northeastern State University OK Stable Northern Kentucky University KY Stable Northern Michigan University MI Negative University of Louisiana Lafayette LA CW Negative Ramapo College NJ Stable Rowan University NJ Stable Saginaw Valley State University MI Stable MO Stable IL Stable Southwestern Oklahoma State University OK Stable Texas Woman's University TX Positive Southeast Missouri State University Southern Illinois University University of Central Missouri MO Positive University of Montevallo AL Stable University of North Alabama AL Stable University of North Carolina at Greensboro NC Stable University of Northern Colorado CO Stable University of Northern Iowa IA Stable University of Southern Indiana IN Stable University of Southern Mississippi MS Stable University of Toledo OH Stable Vermont State College VT Negative West Virginia University WV Stable Western Kentucky University KY Stable Western Michigan University MI Stable MA Stable Cameron University OK Stable Delaware State University DE Stable Worcester State University A- Eastern Illinois University IL Negative Fayetteville State University NC Stable Governors State University IL Negative Indiana University of Pennsylvania PA Stable Kean University NJ Stable Mayville State University ND Stable Missouri Southern State University MO Stable Missouri Western State University MO Stable LA CW Negative Nicholls State University WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 29 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 3 Ratings On Public Colleges And Universities By Rating Category (cont.) Northeastern Illinois University IL Negative Pittsburg State University KS Stable University of North Carolina at Pembroke NC Stable Valley City State University ND Stable Western Illinois University IL Negative NC Stable MI Stable Lake Superior State University MI Stable Western State Colorado University CO Stable Alabama State University AL Negative University of Puerto Rico PR CW Negative Winston-Salem State University BBB+ Eastern Michigan University Speculative Grade Table 4 Glossary of Ratios and Terms Metric or Ratio Definition Enrollment and Demand ratios FTE enrollment Total students enrolled on a full-time equivalent basis Percent undergraduate (%) Total number of undergraduate students/total students Freshman acceptance rate (%) Number of freshman accepted/total number of freshman applications Average SAT scores Average combined math and reading SAT scores for entering freshman Average ACT scores Average ACT scores for entering freshman Retention rate (%) Freshmen students who matriculated for sophomore year/total freshman who completed their first year 5 year graduation rate (%) Students who graduate from the university within 5 years/total students in the freshman cohort 6 year graduation rate (%) Students who graduate from the university within 6 years/total students in the freshman cohort Percent in-state students (%) Students enrolled who come from within the state/ total students enrolled Financial Performance Net adjusted operating income (%) Total adjusted operating income/total adjusted operating expenses Revenue diversity State appropriations (%) Total state operating appropriations/ total operating revenues Tuition (%) Gross tuition and fees/total operating revenues Grants & contracts (%) Government grants & contracts/total operating revenues Gifts & pledges (%) Gifts & pledges/total operating revenues Investment & endowment income (%) Endowment spending income & investment income/total operating revenues Auxiliary operations (%) Auxiliary system operating revenues/total operating revenues Financial aid and expense ratios Financial aid burden (%) Total financial aid expense/ total adjusted operating expenses Instruction (%) Instructional expense/ total adjusted operating expenses WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 30 1416223 | 301932398 U.S. Public College And University Fiscal 2014 Median Ratios: A Growing Divide Between Ratings Categories Table 4 Glossary of Ratios and Terms (cont.) Endowment University endowment market value ($000s) Market value of endowment as of FYE Foundation endowment market value ($000s) Market value of university foundation as of FYE Financial resource ratios Cash & investments to operations (%) Total cash & investments/total adjusted operating expenses Adjusted Unrestricted Net Assets to operations (%) Adjusted UNA / total adjusted operating expenses Cash & investments to debt (%) Total cash & investments/total debt Adjusted Unrestricted Net Assets to debt (%) Adjusted UNA/total debt Debt ratios Total outstanding debt ($000s) Outstanding debt as shown on face of balance sheet Current debt service burden (%) Current debt service/total adjusted operating expenses MADS burden (%) Maximum annual debt service/total adjusted operating expenses Average age of plant Accumulated depreciation/depreciation expenses (years) OPEB as % total liabilities Total OPEB liabilities/ total liabilities Full-time equivalent ratios Total debt per FTE Total debt/FTE students ($) State appropriations per FTE State appropriations/ FTE students ($) Endowment per FTE Market Value Endowment/FTE students ($) Definitions Total adjusted operating revenues* Total operating revenues (from the audit) + institutionally funded financial aid + endowment spending - realized and unrealized gains. Total adjusted operating expenses Total operating expenses (from the audit) + institutionally funded financial aid + interest expense Adjusted unrestricted net assets (UNA) UNA (from the audit) + UNA of foundation + debt service reserves + LT compensated absences (if applicable) Cash & Investments Total cash, short term and long term investments *Adjustments vary based on audit presentation WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 10, 2015 31 1416223 | 301932398 Copyright © 2015 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. 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