Michigan’s2022IndustryandOccupational
EmploymentProjections
MarkReffitt,EconomicSpecialist
Total employment Michigan is expected to increase 8.7 percent between 2012 and 2022, an increase of 371,000 jobs. While slightly below a 10.8 percent projected gain nationally for the same period, the Michigan long‐term outlook indicates job growth across a number of industry sectors and occupational groups, which are highlighted in the analysis that follows. Industry Projections ‐ Michigan’s total supersectors: Educational and Health Services (28 employment level is anticipated to rise by over percent of all new jobs) and Professional and 371,000 jobs (8.7 percent) between 2012 and Business Services (26 percent of all new jobs). 2022, according to the Department of Technology, The vast majority of job gains in Educational and Management and Budget’s (DTMB) Bureau of Health Services is expected to come from Health Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives. Care and Social Assistance, which includes an While a sizeable portion of this growth has been anticipated 41,000 new jobs alone in the realized since 2012, with estimates from other state data indicating a total nonfarm job gain of Ambulatory health care Healthcare Support Occupations top the services industry. Overall, list of fastest‐growing occupational Health Care and Social roughly 146,000 between groups in Michigan through 2022, 2012 and 2014, overall expecting to grow over twice the rate for employment gains are total jobs overall. expected to continue Assistance is expected to rise by roughly 15 percent between 2012 and 2022, a gain of over 91,000 jobs. In the projections data, through 2022, though slow somewhat near the end these sectors all include public sector employment of the forecast period. If U.S. economic growth as well, which differs from ownership treatment in slows at some point later in the projections period, other Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment it could lessen the pace of post‐recessionary data series that categorize state and local employment gains the state has enjoyed in recent government education as well as state hospitals in years and even result in some late intra‐period job the Government supersector. losses in some sectors and occupations. Other notable supersectors expecting to add jobs DTMB projects that more than half of all new jobs through the forecast period include Trade, in the state during the 2012‐2022 forecast period Transportation and Utilities (10 percent of new will be the result of increases in two industry State of Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives 2 Michigan’s 2022 Industry and Occupational Employment Projections jobs) and nine percent each for Manufacturing and new jobs). However, these are somewhat Leisure and Hospitality (Table 1). conservative estimates as these sectors could see slightly more upside depending on Michigan’s In Trade, Transportation and Utilities, job gains are housing market and demand for domestic expected to be concentrated in Retail Trade automobiles. Employment in Utilities, also found in (15,700 new jobs), Wholesale Trade (11,700 new this supersector, is expected to decline through jobs) and Transportation and Warehousing (10,700 2022. Table 1. Employment by major industry sector, 2012 and projected 2022 Employment
Industry Super‐Sector
Employment Change
Annual 10‐Year 10‐Year Growth Numeric Percent Rate
2012
2022
4,285,470
4,656,930
371,460
8.7%
0.8%
Total Self‐Employed and Unpaid Family Workers
Natural Resources and Mining
200,740
59,340
217,460
62,270
16,720
2,930
8.3%
4.9%
0.8%
0.5%
Construction
Manufacturing
127,790
535,980
152,980
569,430
25,190
33,450
19.7%
6.2%
1.8%
0.6%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
727,440
53,170
764,750
54,260
37,310
1,090
5.1%
2.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services (Except Government)
Government
195,390
578,600
982,630
387,450
179,060
257,900
210,320
675,940
1,085,570
419,070
195,190
249,680
14,930
97,340
102,940
31,620
16,130
‐8,220
7.6%
16.8%
10.5%
8.2%
9.0%
‐3.2%
0.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
‐0.3%
Total, All Industries
Source: Industry Long‐Term Employment Projections 2012‐2022
Manufacturing growth is predicted to be driven while there are expectations of a housing recovery largely by automobile and automobile parts and anticipated construction activity in non‐
producers. Overall, the supersector is expected to residential subsectors, including heavy and civil expand by only 6.2 percent through 2022, though engineering projects, overall employment growth Durable Goods Manufacturing is forecast to in the sector is expected to slow overall. For the outpace that at 8.2 percent growth for the overall period 2012‐2022, DTMB expects a job gain of just period. Transportation equipment manufacturing under 20 percent, with almost two‐thirds of new is predicted to add over 20,000 jobs for a roughly jobs in the Construction supersector coming in 13 percent increase during the period. Specialty trades contractors (16,300 new jobs, 19 The state’s Construction sector enjoyed fairly robust post‐recessionary job increases through 2014, gaining roughly 9 percent since 2012. But State of Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives percent gain through 2022). 3 Michigan’s 2022 Industry and Occupational Employment Projections OccupationalProjections ‐ Healthcare percent), and Nursing Assistants (+13 percent) Support Occupations top the list of fastest‐growing being among the more notable jobs in this occupational groups in Michigan through 2022, category. Healthcare Practitioners and Technical expecting to grow roughly 18 percent or over twice Occupations also are expected outpace the all‐
the rate for total jobs overall (Table 2). Nearly all occupation average with a forecasted increase of detailed occupations within this group are 13 percent. Within this group, Registered Nurses, projected to grow at double‐digit rates for the Licensed Practical Nurses, Physicians and Surgeons forecast period, with Home Health Aides (+33 and Pharmacy Technicians all expect ample increases in jobs through the forecast period. percent though 2022), Medical Assistants (+15 Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2012 and projected 2022 Employment
Occupational Category
Total, All Occupations
Management Occupations
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
Architecture and Engineering Occupations
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
Community and Social Service Occupations
Legal Occupations
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Protective Service Occupations
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations
Personal Care and Service Occupations
Sales and Related Occupations
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
Construction and Extraction Occupations
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
Production Occupations
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
2012
2022
4,285,470 4,656,930
253,350 276,010
196,750 218,610
99,610 115,610
121,630 136,110
31,260
34,220
64,360
71,460
26,380
28,610
263,300 281,120
59,460
64,090
272,450 307,000
147,890 174,720
78,200
81,010
352,120 381,470
144,020 157,340
131,770 146,950
432,080 455,940
631,760 654,400
35,610
36,680
132,010 152,130
156,940 173,330
404,960 439,970
249,570 270,170
Employment Change Total Average Annual 10‐Year 10‐Year Openings
Numeric Percent
371,460
22,660
21,860
16,000
14,480
2,960
7,100
2,230
17,820
4,630
34,550
26,830
2,810
29,350
13,320
15,180
23,860
22,640
1,070
20,120
16,390
35,010
20,600
8.7%
8.9%
11.1%
16.1%
11.9%
9.5%
11.0%
8.5%
6.8%
7.8%
12.7%
18.1%
3.6%
8.3%
9.2%
11.5%
5.5%
3.6%
3.0%
15.2%
10.4%
8.6%
8.3%
139,517
7,374
6,020
3,231
4,591
1,226
2,238
650
7,198
1,919
9,028
5,511
2,490
16,126
4,270
4,520
15,353
17,685
1,130
4,287
5,273
11,544
7,856
Source: Occupational Long‐Term Employment Projections 2012‐2022
The prevalence of STEM‐related (Science, occupational groups in this respect are Computer Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) growth and Mathematical Occupations and Architecture is apparent in the Michigan 2022 occupational and Engineering Occupations, each of which are projections as well. Two highly‐relevant expected to record total‐period growth in the State of Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives 4 Michigan’s 2022 Industry and Occupational Employment Projections double digits and add over 30,000 new jobs average, when replacement jobs are taken into combined between 2002 and 2012. Additionally, account. 7,800 job opportunities are projected annually Food Preparation and Service Occupations and across these two categories when replacement Sales and Related Occupations round out the top openings are factored in to the mix. five occupational groups in terms of new jobs, Although the Production Occupations group is expected to grow at only an average pace, the though these tend to be lower‐than‐average pay positions overall. prevalence of automotive manufacturing in Combined, the top five occupational groups in Michigan continues to push this group higher than terms of new jobs will account for four out of every all others in terms of the number of expected new five new jobs statewide during the forecast period jobs between 2012 and 2022 (Chart 1). and a slightly higher share of overall job Chart 1. Occupational groups with most new jobs through 2022 (number of new jobs) opportunities annually (which include replacement jobs).i Want more information? Michigan’s Long‐Term Industry and Occupational Employment Projections are produced biennially under the Bureau of Labor Statistics guidelines and administered by the national Projections Managing Partnership program. These projections are important for decision makers at all levels, Source: Occupational Long‐Term Employment Projections including educators, workforce and economic 2012‐2022 developers, jobseekers, and numerous state and This group is expected to add about 35,000 new jobs during the forecast period, and is expected to provide 11,500 total openings each year, on local agencies. For a complete listing of Long‐Term Industry This article was written by Mark Reffitt, an Economic Specialist with the Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives. He can be reached at [email protected] (517) 373‐3422. State of Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives Occupational Employment projections please visit www.michigan.gov/lmi. and