Feasibility Study Concerning
High-Speed Railway Lines
in Norway
Report Phase 1
December 2006
Feasibility Study Concerning
High-Speed Railway Lines
in Norway
Contents
Preface
VII
1
High-Speed-Railway-Networks
1-1
2
Main Characteristics of High-Speed-Rail Networks
2-1
3
Market Study
3-1
3.1
Objectives and Background
3-1
3.2
3.2.1
3.2.2
Passenger Traffic in Europe
Outline UIC Passenger Traffic Study
Long-distance mobility
3-2
3-2
3-12
3.3
3.3.1
3.3.2
3.3.3
3.3.4
3.3.5
3.3.6
3.3.7
3.4
3.4.1
3.4.2
3.4.3
3.4.4
Potentials for High-Speed Rail Services
Identification of Main Markets Segments
Database of Passenger Traffic Demand
European Passenger Transport Model
Development of Population
Economic Growth and Development of Car Availability and User Costs
Development of Traffic Demand without High-Speed Rail Services
Development of Traffic Demand with High-Speed Rail Services
Creating a Basic Network from the Market Point of View
Including the Main Regional Markets
Combining the Markets of the North- and West-Corridor
Combining the Markets of the South- and West-Corridor
The Basic Network
3-15
3-15
3-18
3-18
3-21
3-22
3-23
3-24
3-26
3-27
3-27
3-27
3-29
3.5
Conclusion
3-30
4
5
Technical Aspects of High-Speed-Traffic
4-1
4.1
Basics
4-1
4.2
Technical Boundary Conditions
4-2
4.3
Operation
4-7
4.4
4.5
Safety Aspects of Single-Track-Lines
Running Time Calculation
4-12
4-13
Regard of Corridors
5-1
5.1
Basics
5-1
5.2
5.3
5.4
Investment Costs
Choice of Corridors for further Investigation
Integrated Concepts
5-2
5-2
5-6
6
Conclusion
6-1
7
Annex
7-1
3.1
3.2
5.1
5.2
5.3
Traffic Zones of UIC-Passenger Traffic Study
Development of Population by Regions and Age Classes
Alternative lines to Bergen
Alternative lines to Trondheim
Possible line to Halden / Gøteborg
-I-
7-2
7-3
7-4
7-5
7-6
Feasibility Study Concerning
High-Speed Railway Lines
in Norway
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[1]
Bundesminister für Verkehr:
(Federal Rail Master Plan 1985)
Bundesverkehrswegeplan
1985,
Bonn
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[2]
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2006
[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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High-Speed Railway Lines
in Norway
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Feasibility Study Concerning
High-Speed Railway Lines
in Norway
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-V-
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in Norway
Lundgren, J.: Elektrischer Schnelltriebzug X2 der Schwedischen Staatsbahnen; Elektrische Bahnen 7/1990
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Feasibility Study Concerning
High-Speed Railway Lines
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Preface
In July 2006 Jernbaneverket engaged the German group of VWI and partners to work out
a “Feasibility Study concerning High-Speed Railway Lines in Norway”. The study includes
the corridors
•
•
•
•
•
Oslo – Gøteborg
Oslo – Stockholm
Oslo – Trondheim
Oslo – Bergen
Oslo – Kristiansand / Stavanger
and may be some combinations of these corridors.
Partners of the core group and their fields of work are:
VWI Verkehrswissenschaftliches Institut Stuttgart GmbH
Project administration, operation, evaluation, costs and benefits
Intraplan Consult GmbH
Passenger transport demand, market study, modal-split calculations
IGV Ingenieur Gesellschaft Verkehr
Network basic construction, infrastructure planning
The core group is supported by three scientific university partners
Institute for Railway and Transportation Engineering of the University of Stuttgart
(Teach and Research Division of Railway-Vehicle-Technology included)
Operation basics and operation of lines, investment costs, power supply, maintenance
Institute of Land and Maritime Transportation of the Technical University of Berlin
- Specialised Field concerning Railway Vehicles
Basics of technical conditions and costs of railway vehicles
Institute of Transportation Constructions of the Technical University of Dresden
– Chair for Planning and Design of Infrastructure for guided Transport
Basic technical conditions for high-speed railway infrastructure
The study is divided into two phases.
In phase 1 (reported in this paper) there is a comparison of existing European HighSpeed-Concepts to point out what high-speed really means. There also is a detailed
analysis of the Transport Market and the potentials for High-Speed Railway Services in
Norway. As a result of these two steps the corridors are regarded particularly according to
their potential of getting a positive result in the following cost-benefit-analysis.
The result of phase 1 will point out which corridors should be studied more detailed in
phase 2. There are no final results at the end of phase 1.
-VII-
Feasibility Study Concerning
High-Speed Railway Lines
in Norway
Figure 0-1: Work packages of the feasibility study
PHASE 1
High-Speed-Basic-Analysis
Market-Study
Choice of Lines
to be preferred
High-Speed-Railway
Specific Conditions
Presentation and Report
PHASE 2
Infrastructure Planning
Operation Planning
Loop over Corridors
Operations and Stops
Impacts and Effects of HighSpeed-Railway-Transport
Costs and Benefits
Evaluation
Presentation and Report
In phase 2 operation- and infrastructure-planning for the chosen corridors will be worked
out. The impacts and effects of High-Speed-Railway-Transport will then be analysed. With
this basic information costs and benefits can be calculated and there will be a conclusion
at the end of phase 2 with the recommendations of the group about the realisation of
High-Speed-Railway-Service in Norway.
The feasibility study will answer the question if High-Speed-Railway-Lines in Norway will
show a positive result in an economic evaluation.
It is not the assigned task to clarify the question which line should be build first.
- VIII -
Feasibility Study Concerning
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1
High-Speed-Railway-Networks
In the 1970s overall in Europe and worldwide the discussion and planning for High-SpeedRailway-Lines and Nets began. In France and Germany it seemed as the first lines were
about to be realised very soon. Because of juristic planning problems the first two HighSpeed-Railway-Lines in Germany were delayed and the first High-Speed-Railway-Line
was established in France from Paris to Lyon. Some years later Germany followed with
the lines from Hanover to Würzburg and later on from Mannheim to Stuttgart.
Figure 1-1 illustrates by the example of Germany that the beginning of High-Speed-RailLines in all countries started with one or two single lines. In 1981 the planning began with
two lines. In the Federal Rail Master Plan [1] in 1985 these two lines were fixed (shown
red in figure 1-1) and added by considerations about three more corridors. These corridors should be examined after there were experiences with the first lines. Meanwhile in
two of these corridors new lines are built and in operation. The third corridor is still in the
status of planning.
Figure 1-1: Federal Rail Master Plan of Germany 1985 [1]
- 1-1
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Feasibility Study Concerning
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In figure 1-1 additional lines to be upgraded are shown (green lines). On these lines at
least 200 kph should be reached and in this first step of a High-Speed-Rail these lines
should connect the High-Speed-Lines with the rest of the net and make it possible to offer
services with small travel-times in much more relations.
As shown in the following figures 1-2 to 1-5 in several European countries efforts for a
High-Speed-Rail were made (additional figures are shown in the report “Materials WP
100” [2]). Meanwhile an European Net is coming to be established for more states than
shown in the figures. Countries begin to upgrade lines and go on with lines from the
neighbour countries. E.g. Switzerland, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands are involved
in this beginning European Net. The European Union and the European Railway Companies support this by planning the Trans-European-Net (TEN) to connect the different lines
for international services.
Most of the High-Speed-Railway-Nets began with the installation of a first line representing the efforts of the country for a new railway.
These first lines were built by their own rules:
-
construction could be carried out very fast (less problems with neighbourhood),
-
lines for relations with capacity problems on the existing track,
-
connection of centres in the country.
Following their own socio-economic, geographical and topographical circumstances in
each country specific lines and nets are growing up.
Two different types of High-Speed-Railway-Nets can be found in Europe
-
centralised networks with nearly all lines leading to the capital city or
-
wide-spread networks connecting more centres directly to each other.
- 1-2 -
Feasibility Study Concerning
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in Norway
Figure 1-2: High-Speed-Railway-Net in France
Figure 1-3: High-Speed-Railway-Net in Italy
- 1-3 -
Feasibility Study Concerning
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Figure 1-4: High-Speed-Railway-Net in Spain
Figure 1-5: High-Speed-Railway-Net in Germany
- 1-4 -
Feasibility Study Concerning
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The different net strategies pointed out above can be seen in the figures:
- France and Spain build up a railway net centred to their capital cities Paris and Madrid.
All build High-Speed-Lines connect a centre region with the capital.
- In Italy the lines mostly lead to Rome but they are added by the connection of the industrial centres in the north (e.g. Turin – Milan).
- In Germany the planning of High-Speed-Lines began in the Federal Republic and
therefore was concentrated on North-South-Lines. Later on the planning was added
with the connections to Berlin (mostly West – East). Because of this difference in Germany compared with the other European countries the development of a structured net
(not concentrated on one city) got greater importance.
- In Sweden also a net with Stockholm as its centre was designed but with Malmö there
is a second one, being the connection to the European net with the ongoing line to Copenhagen.
In all countries the development of the nets shows a combination of new High-SpeedLines and upgraded existing lines. This is one of the advantages of developing the railway
to High-Speed-Service compared to new types of transportation systems such as
MAGLEV-lines.
It is difficult to compare data of High-Speed-Lines in a basic analysis and overview. For
example the High-Speed-Line Mannheim – Stuttgart with a length of about 100 km includes 15 km of existing old track at the accesses of Stuttgart and Mannheim main stations. The new line Karlsruhe – Basel (combination of High-Speed and upgraded line) is a
conglomerate of adding two tracks to the existing ones and constructing two new tracks
for 5 to 10 km offside the existing line.
There are as well very different types of service and operation. E. g. in France there are a
lot of trains running directly from the starting station to Paris (and back) with one intermediate stop in the maximum. Only in the very early or very late hours there are additional
stops to offer an “early and late connection”. This means that there are a lot of cities with
only one or two stops (each direction) of High-Speed-Services a day. Other examples (e.
g. Germany) show a systematic timetable with more intermediate stops of every train. This
offers more direct connections within the line, diminishes travel time for this relations and
opens up new markets. But it leads to decrease of average speed of the High-SpeedRailway-System and travel time for thel other relations will increase.
- 1-5 -
Feasibility Study Concerning
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All High-Speed-Railway-Systems integrate the existing services of local and regional rail
offers as feeder systems. Having good offers to bring passengers to or from the HighSpeed-System with short changing times strengthens the High-Speed-System by getting
more passengers without having more intermediate stops. This combines the advantages
of High-Speed-Rail with a complete travel chain from origin to destination.
- 1-6 -
Feasibility Study Concerning
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2
Main Characteristics of High-Speed-Rail Networks
High-Speed-Rail means running 200 kph or faster and also an Integrated Concept of
lines, vehicles and operation. In such a system the Rail has comparable travel times with
air traffic and shorter travel times than car traffic.
There are new lines to be built whose maximum speeds depend on topography and the
settlement structure. On these new lines new train technology is required. The trains have
to be high powered for fast acceleration.
In most cases a combination of existing and upgraded conventional lines and new HighSpeed-Lines is installed. The access to the cities is often not possible without causing
major conflicts or the access is too expensive. New lines into the city-centres are therefore
integrated with parts of existing lines in the High-Speed-System. To get a high potential
access to High-Speed-Traffic the operation is often extended to the regions outside the
High-Speed-Rail-Net on upgraded lines.
Because of very high investment-costs combined with a long planning and construction
period a High-Speed-Network cannot be built as a totally new system at once. In the
European countries at the beginning of the High-Speed-Area one or two High-SpeedRailway-Lines were implemented and the network was developed after that step by step.
This is also important to get experience in High-Speed-Operation. As it is built stepwise,
intermediate solutions during planning and construction are necessary.
At the new High-Speed-Line between Frankfurt and Cologne it can be depicted what
High-Speed means. The line is built by conventional partly upgraded lines at the access of
Frankfurt and Cologne and the High-Speed-Line with a maximum speed of 300 kph between Frankfurt Airport and 10 km behind Bonn-Siegburg on the way to Cologne. The
highest average speed is between Frankfurt Airport and Bonn-Siegburg with 210 kph
which is rather far away from the maximum speed of 300 kph. In the relation between
Frankfurt-Main-Station and Cologne with stops at the Airport and in Limburg and Montabaur the average speed is 150 kph. In the relation between Limburg/Montabaur and
Frankfurt-Main-Station the line has the character of commuter traffic over longer distances.
This is illustrated in figure 2-1.
- 2-1
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Feasibility Study Concerning
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Figure 2-1:Reached commercial speed on the High-Speed-Railway-Line Frankfurt - Cologne
High-Speed-Railway-Line Köln-Rhein/Main:
30
0
109,7
Average Speed:
168,5 180,0
FrankfurtAirport
Montabaur
Siegburg/
Bonn
88,3
Limburg
25,2
Siegburg/Bonn – Frankfurt-Flughafen
210 kph – 143 km – 41 min – without Stops
Köln Hbf – Frankfurt-Flughafen
177 kph – 168 km – 57 min – with Stop at
Siegburg/Bonn
Köln-Deutz – Frankfurt-Flughafen
Frankfurt
25
0
20
0
80
12
0
16
0
0 1,2
Köln
KölnDeutz
km
22
0
20
0
16
0
80
Speed [km/h]:
173 kph – 167 km – 58 min – with Stops at
Montabaur and Limburg Süd
Köln – Frankfurt Hbf
150 kph – 180 km – 72 min – with Stops at
Siegburg/Bonn and Frankfurt-Airport
Old line:
Köln Hbf – Frankfurt Hbf
91 kph – 213 km – 141 min –
with three Stops
(Source: Timetable Deutsche Bahn AG, own calculations)
Figure 2-2: Average commercial speed on High-Speed-Railway-Lines in Europe
Average Commercial Speed High-Speed-Railway Lines in Europe
250
333 km / 88 % / 1:25 h
225
running time [h:mm]
high-speed and upgraded line [%]
distance [km]
175
150
785 km / 46 % / 6:00 h
214 km / 91 % / 1:35 h
568 km / 52 % / 4:11 h
64 km / 100 % / 0:27 h
564 km / 68 % / 3:50 h
570 km / 56 % / 3:31 h
261 km / 100 % / 1:36 h
177 km / 80 % / 1:06 h
105 km / 94 % / 0:35 h
25
495 km / 100 % / 2:42 h
50
471 km / 100 % / 2:35 h
75
292 km / 91 % / 1:36 h
100
171 km / 100 % / 0:50 h
750 km / 100 % / 3:15 h
431 km / 100 % / 1:55 h
125
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Average Speed [kph]
200
Feasibility Study Concerning
High-Speed Railway Lines
in Norway
The examples in the figures 2-1 and 2-2 show that average speed of High-Speed-Traffic is
between 150 kph and 240 kph. This average is the commercial speed recognized by the
customer. This speed depends more on the number of intermediate stops than on the
maximum speed of the line. Even if there is a layout speed of 300 kph the commercial
speed will be much more lower (see the example Frankfurt – Cologne in figure 2-1).
Transferred to the Norwegian situation the example illustrates that it is not possible to
have many stops between the major cities, if an average running speed of about 150 kph
or more should be reached.
- 2-3 -