DIALOGUES ON THE
HISTORICAL CYCLE
by
d. holmes chamberlin jr.
California State Poloytechnic College
San Luis Obispo
1971
Grade:
Date Submitted:
Project Advisor:
Department Head Approval:
FOREWARD
The following paper is constructed around the conclusions and historical interpretations that
my mind had dealt with over the years. In my contact with other people, physically and through
their written word, I have made certain observations which have influenced this paper. I am sure
my observations are not new, but neither are they the direct result of any one author or work.
As a result of this, very few footnotes are used and the basis for my conclusions are left to the
logic of the reader. It is a personal thesis and is meant only to stimulate further thought and is not
presented to prove a point.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1
A STANDARD FOR ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON ........................................................... 2
THE FOUR-POINT CHINESE DYNASTIC CYCLE GRAPHICALLY DEPICTED .................... 4
GRAPHIC INTERPRETATIONS OF THE HISTORICAL CYCLE ............................................ 5
Environmental Distortions
China
Europe
Mexico
MAJOR AND MINOR HISTORICAL CYCLES ......................................................................... 8
OBSERVATIONS TOWARD A THESIS ON HISTORICAL CYCLES .................................... 11
The Driving Force
The Partial Realization of a Goal
Factionalization
The Cornerstone to System Disintegration
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................... 14
INTRODUCTION
All down through the ages historians have recognized trends in political, economic, and
social endeavors that have come to be referred to as “historical cycles.” The study of the rise and
fall of any great or small movement, power, or nation is, in its basics, a study of this historical
cycle between reason and emotion. These cycles require no strict timetables, but, as the result
of human nature, are highly predictable.
A better understanding of what constitutes these cycles and what brings them about is the
first step toward any control over them. “Inevitable” is a pessimistic word, but it is also the basis
of any useful tool or method. The following discussion is designed to stimulate thought on historic
cycles, the United States, and the world – where we are now, how we got there, where we are
headed, and who is likely to lead us.
A STANDARD FOR ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON
While it can be maintained that the historical cycle is evident in any culture at any time, for
this discussion the ancient Chinese dynastic cycle has been selected as a point of departure.
Due to physical isolation and a strong philosophical unity, China presents us with a most
undistorted picture of the reoccurring historical cycle. When enemies did threaten and conquer
the Chinese, they tended to accept the tenants of Chinese culture rather than change them to fit
their own. Due to this assimilation, Chinese history takes on the appearance of being an
unbroken chain of events - - the historical cycles are clearer than others, such as those in Europe,
where different cultures, at different points in their cycles, were constantly overlapping.
1
As early as 200 B.C. the cyclical theory of history was discussed in the courts of the Han
Dynasty in China. It was based on the Five Agents, colors and animals. Ssu-ma Ch’ien, China’s
greatest early historian (cerca 145 B.C. - 90 B.C.) developed his own theory using a three point
cycle. He divided the historical cycle into periods of (1) good faith, (2) piety, and (3) refinement
and order. Other theories have followed and it is a four point cycle that seems to best describe
the fluctuations of Chinese culture.
1
Ssu-Ma Ch’ien, “The Cyclical Succession of Dynasties,” Pattern of Chinese
History, (1965), pp. 2-3.
2
THE FOUR-POINT CHINESE DYNASTIC CYCLE
POINT ONE.
A small group of strong men, or an exceptional individual, rises from the surrounding
anarchy to inspire unity through an appeal to relive the glories of the past. Through individual
innovation and military prowess, territorial limits are established, the economy is set to function,
and past corruption is purged.
A high point is reached where past glories in art, music,
philosophy, and government are reached and surpassed.
POINT TWO.
An over-indulgence in the new-found glory leads to a shirking of the responsibilities that
created it and the gap between the people and those in control widens.
POINT THREE.
The reformer now sees his call and emerges to “save” the dynasty by routing out corruption
and proclaiming a return to the glory of the past. This period is often characterized by imitation
of the past and lacks the spontaneity and originality of the first greatness.
POINT FOUR.
While the reform is often exuberant, its superficiality is the harbinger of downfall and
signals the breakdown of the dynasty – civil war insues.
3
THE FOUR-POINT CHINESE DYNASTIC CYCLE GRAPHICALLY DEPICTED
CORRESPONDING EXAMPLES
The Han Dynasty
The T’ang Dynasty
The Ming Dynasty
POINT ONE
Kao Tsu (206-195)
Kao Tsu (618-626)
Hung Wu (1368-1398)
POINT TWO
Wu Ti (140-87)
Tai Tsung (627-650)
Young Wu (1403-1424)
POINT THREE
Wang Mang (9-23)
Empress Wu (690-705)
Ying Tsung (1450-1475)
POINT FOUR
Kuang Wu-Ti (25-57)
Hsuan Tsung (712-756)
Wan Li (1573-1620)
4
GRAPHIC INTERPRETATIONS OF THE HISTORICAL CYCLE
ENVIRONMENTAL DISTORTIONS
The historic cycle, itself, is subject to, as well as a source of, different environmental stimuli
which suggest whether there will be a preponderance of reason, emotion, or a sprinkling of both.
If the total environment of the historical cycle could be contained within the confines of a
two-dimensional graph, it might take on these characteristics:
Within this framework, the historical cycle is subject to environmental distortion.
5
CHINA
In ancient China, as noted previously, isolation created a historical cycle which was
relatively pure. Warfare was a signal of dynastic change and the prevailing system existed
between these upsets with a professed goal of exalted reason. Graphically depicted, this
historical cycle could be represented in this manner:
EUROPE
In Europe, the historical cycle was subject to an environment in which many different
cultures were constantly overlapping. As the cycle fluctuated from periods of darkness to
periods of enlightenment, it could be said to have traced out a graphic representation
something like this:
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MEXICO
The historical cycle in Mexico, following the fall of the Aztecs, was subject to an
environment of almost constant civil war in which multiple warring factions fought to gain
supremacy on an almost daily basis.
The lack of reasonable progress and an appeal to the
emotions of war accounted for a graphic interpretation of this period that would appear something
like this:
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MAJOR AND MINOR HISTORICAL CYCLES
So far in this discussion of historical cycles, there has been no reference to the many levels
on which they work. The level of the historical cycles that have already been discussed is difficult
to define. In measurements of time, they might be defined as repeating once every one (Mexico)
to two-hundred (China) years. In sociological terms, this level of cycle could be defined as being
synonymous with the rise and fall of each Chinese dynasty or with the change in American
sentiment from Democrat to Republican.
By another method, this level of historical cycle could be defined as that which occurs
within the confines of a major concept. Even though there were many clearly defined dynastic
cycles in ancient China, the turn-overs all occurred within the framework of accepted ethical
standards that have been termed “rule by moral exhortation.” And, even though the United States
fluctuated between “liberal” and “conservative” leaders, it was all accomplished in the name of
constitutional interpretation. In other words, this level of historical cycle does not change the basic
tenants of a culture.
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A MAJOR LEVEL
Understanding the preceding level, it is apparent that the historical cycle exists on another,
more encompassing, level. This level might be sociologically defined as being synonymous with
the rise and fall of the Roman Empire or the growth and disintegration of tzarist Russia.
A MACRO LEVEL
On an even larger scale, it can be argued that the world community is subject to historical
cycles which fluctuate between periods of “peaceful” reasonable progress and periods of
emotional international hostility.
A PRIMARY LEVEL
Since the historical cycle is basically an attribute of human nature, it is only logical that the
individual, himself, be the primary unit. Some theories on this level go so far as to claim that
these cycles can be accurately predicted to the day. Intellectual, emotional, and physical highs
and lows are said to complete full cycles every thirty-three, thirty, and twenty-eight days
respectively. This human historical cycle can be said to be operating in as little as a creative
endeavor or in as much as an individual’s life span. The principles that were earlier discussed as
basic to any historic cycle still apply.
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With an awareness of these many levels on which the historical cycle operates, a more
accurate graphic representation can now be drawn in which a detailed analysis would show the
many sub-cycles that occur within any system:
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OBSERVATIONS TOWARD A THESIS ON HISTORICAL CYCLES
THE DRIVING FORCE
While the anarchy of warfare might somehow suggest a certain type of individual freedom,
it is paradoxical to the basic human need for predictability. Any man’s happiness is directly
proportional to his ability to correctly predict and cope with any situations he may meet.
Therefore, it is only natural that anarchy promote, by its very nature, its own downfall. One sees
the emergence of strong-minded individuals who develop followers in a quest for some form of
permanence - - a permanence which will allow them to live and accumulate the physical attributes
and compliments to their own characters - - their property.
This need may be only abstractly realized at first and is dispersed in many directions with
general purposes.
This search for predictability, however, will soon center around those
“individuals” who, through their own abilities and strengths, will unite the forces of society toward
a concrete goal. It is predicable that one man will soon tend to dominate the scene. It is this man
who will fulfill the peoples immediate needs for direction and often become the movements “folk
hero” and the symbol for future innovations. It is usually this hard-line, yet benevolent, policy
which sets the general theme for “progress” toward a working system.
THE PARTIAL REALIZATION OF A GOAL
With a new sense of predictability in the future built around this man, his successors, and
their forceful authority, material wealth is again collected and a system of exchange for materials
and services is developed under the “indulgence” of the new powers-that-be.
With the necessities of life increasingly well within hand, more and more time can be
devoted to creative work and the whole-potential man. Art and science make great strides
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forward through the financial support of an enlightened society. Innovation is spontaneous and
commercial. A nobility of the “cultured” evolves and is pushed as the model goal.
FACTIONALIZATION
During this period of development, no matter what system is instigated, it is inevitable that
negative aspects begin to form. Proportional with the term of existence of any system is a
growing feeling that more and more control, in the guise of services, must be instigated to insure
the retention of power.
As the position of the-powers-to-be becomes more stable, their preoccupation turns from
day to day problems to a more philosophical “worldly” line of thought. A bureaucracy develops
to cope with the specialized service/controls and in no time begins to act as a buffer between the
power and the people. A sense of alienation soon pervades the people. Within the growing
bureaucracy, feelings of entrenchment and anonymity leave the door open for corruption and
graft.
Within the ranks of those who supported The Man, there will be those who had in mind a
different approach to reaching the desired goals. After any length of time, the disappointment in
successive leaders will polarize into an organized opposition.
As alienation and corruption become more apparent, the opposition is able to come to the
forefront through an appeal to past ideals and the “violated” symbol of The Man. Able to achieve
dominate power with relatively little “bloodshed,” the opposition institutes purges on the corrupt
system and a semblance of past greatness is restored.
However, being the renovation of an old system, the newness tends to lack the honest
spontaneity that made the past what it was. Appeals to the past, eclectic aesthetics and morals,
however commercial, have no real roots in the new time period. Attempts to save this superficial
hypocritical shell result in excesses that stimulate emotion but do not answer the problem.
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THE CORNERSTONE TO SYSTEM DISINTEGRATION
The views of the “average man” are changing. The original group of people that fought
for and/or worked hard to achieve and develop the success of the system have given birth to
new generations. Each successive generation is further divorced from the environment that
created the system. The benefits of the system that provided an opportunity for them to live in
material comfort mean little to new generations that lack the knowledge and experience of
having earned them.
Meanwhile, the old generations have settled down to enjoy the fruits of their labor.
Seeing an attack upon the system that made them what they are, they unavoidably oppose
any change which may jeopardize the security of their position. The newer generations,
unemotionally attached to the original system and sensing a lack of participation, tend to see
the present inconsistencies of the system as inherent to its ideals and are eager to promote a
new system based on the old’s antithesis.
The old and new generations meet on two different battlegrounds which appear to them
as one. The ideals which once meant so much to the older generations were, long ago,
accepted in their minds as one-in-the-same with the system. The inconsistencies that now
exist within the system are defended, often blindly, in the light of the original ideals. To the
newer generations, the original basis for the system is lost in the hypocrisy of the present. IT
IS BOTH GENERATIONS ACCEPTANCE OF THIS APPARENT BATTLEGROUND, AS
OPPOSED TO THE ACTUAL TWO BATTLEGROUNDS, THAT STIMULATES FRICTION
WITH WHAT CAN BE CALLED A GENUINE COMMUNICATION GAP. This communication
gap is the cornerstone to any systems disintegration.
The system will inevitably give way to a new one that has its roots in the new
environment of the decaying older system. Thi9s new system is destined to relive the same
story that was just completed as a new historical cycle begins.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
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and World, 1968.
Ch’ien, Ssu-Ma. “The Cyclical Succession of Dynasties.” Pattern of Chinese History. Edited by
John Meskill. Boston: D.C. Heath and Co., 1965.
Erickson, Erik Homburger. Young Man Luther; A Study in Psychoanalysis and History. 1st
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Gipson, Lawrence Henry. The Coming of the Revolution, 1763-1775. 1st Edition. N.Y.: Harper,
1954.
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Janson, Horst Woldemar. History of Art and Music. N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1968.
Levine, Lawrence W. And Middlehauff, Robert. The National Temper. N.Y.: Harcourt, Brace and
World, Inc., 1968
Meier, August. From Plantation to Ghetto: An Interpretative History of American Negroes. 1st
Edition. N.Y.: Hill and Wang, 1966.
Miller, John C. The Federalists Era. N.Y.: Harper and Row, 1960.
Parkes, Henry Bamford. History of Mexico. Boston: Houghton Miffin, 1950.
Reed, John. Insurgent Mexico. N.Y.: International Publishers, 1969.
Sansom, G. B. Japan - A Short Cultural History. 1962 Revised Edition. N.Y.: D. Appleton Century Co. Inc., 1943
.
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