Overview Articles The Role of Vertebrate Herbivores in Regulating Shrub Expansion in the Arctic: A Synthesis KATIE S. CHRISTIE, JOHN P. BRYANT, LAURA GOUGH, VIRVE T. RAVOLAINEN, ROGER W. RUESS, AND KEN D. TAPE Shrubs are expanding in Arctic ecosystems, and herbivores may be influencing this expansion by reducing the growth of preferred forage species. We synthesized new and published data to evaluate the relative influence of climate and vertebrate herbivory on different shrub species and groups. Variation in chemistry across shrub species translates to a strong preference for (and damage to) palatable deciduous shrubs compared with evergreen shrubs when herbivores are at low densities, but differences in palatability matter less when herbivores are at high densities and/ or food limited. Long-term observational and experimental studies indicate that herbivores moderate the expansion of fast-growing deciduous shrubs such as willows (Salix spp.), although more research is needed to address the relative strength of climate and herbivory at larger scales. Well-defended shrubs such as Siberian alder (Alnus viridis) and resinous dwarf birch (Betula nana exilis) are generally not preferred by herbivores and may therefore outpace the expansion of more palatable species. Keywords: shrub expansion, climate change, Arctic, secondary compounds, wildlife C limate warming in the Arctic has caused the rapid expansion of woody shrubs over the past half-century (Tape et al. 2006, Elmendorf et al. 2012), and herbivory has been recognized as a key factor influencing this expansion (Myers-Smith et al. 2011). Vertebrate herbivores are capable of strongly regulating the rates of vegetation change in tundra ecosystems, and the number of studies on the topic has increased in recent years. The need to understand plant–animal interactions in a warming Arctic has prompted exclosure experiments and observational studies, and these have demonstrated that herbivores can curtail the expansion of their preferred forage species (Post and Pedersen 2008, Olofsson et al. 2009, Rinnan et al. 2009, Ravolainen et al. 2014). For example, the aboveground biomass responses of nonresinous dwarf birch (Betula nana ssp. nana) and grayleaf willow (Salix glauca) to increased temperature were reduced substantially when plants were browsed by caribou and muskoxen (Post and Pedersen 2008). Despite the documentation that herbivores are capable of regulating the response of tundra shrubs to climate change, the degree to which different shrub species and assemblages are influenced by climate and herbivory is unclear. Erect shrubs cover a large portion (26%) of the unglaciated Arctic (Walker et al. 2005) and are expected to expand to cover a greater area in the future. Variation in the response of different shrubs to climate change seems to be a function of their capacity to respond to improved conditions (such as longer growing seasons, greater nutrient availability, and soil disturbance, which creates microsites for seedling establishment; Myers-Smith et al. 2011, Elmendorf et al. 2012). The counteracting effect of herbivory on shrub growth has been suggested to vary according to browsing pressure, plant palatability, and plant tolerance to herbivory (Mulder 1999, Myers-Smith et al. 2011). Understanding how herbivory facilitates or moderates the expansion of different shrub species in a warming Arctic is important because the resulting species composition will affect surface-energy exchange, soil temperatures, decomposition, nitrogen cycling, and carbon storage (Myers-Smith et al. 2011). An initial step in understanding how shrub species are differentially affected by herbivores is to document rates of herbivory across functional groups, or groups that share morphological, physiological, or phenological traits (Diaz et al. 2004). Arctic shrubs can be divided most simply into two distinct functional groups, deciduous and evergreen shrubs, which have different traits that control their response to environmental change and herbivory (Chapin et al. 1996). Size, relative growth rate, patterns of resource partitioning, and the ability to persist following disturbance are traits that influence how a plant will respond to environmental BioScience 65: 1123–1133. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]. doi:10.1093/biosci/biv137 Advance Access publication 10 October 2015 http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 • BioScience 1123 Overview Articles change. Deciduous plants tend to have high rates of growth, photosynthesis, and nutrient absorption and typically partition a large proportion of growth to leaf area (Chapin et al. 1996). This group invests in the acquisition rather than the conservation of resources (Díaz et al. 2004) and tends to contain fewer defensive compounds than do evergreen species (Mulder 1999, Cornelissen et al. 2004). Climate change in the Arctic is predicted to improve growing conditions for plants. Such conditions include longer growing seasons, increased soil temperature and nutrient availability, increased solar radiation, altered soil moisture regimes, increased soil disturbance, and earlier timing of snow melt (Myers-Smith et al. 2011). Deciduous shrubs are expected to respond most rapidly to these changes (Chapin et al. 1996) and have indeed expanded in tundra regions via increased height and annual growth (Forbes et al. 2010, Myers-Smith et al. 2011, Macias-Fauria et al. 2012, Frost and Epstein 2014). Evidence suggests that deciduous shrubs respond more readily to warming or fertilization than evergreen shrubs do (Elmendorf et al. 2012, Gough et al. 2012, DeMarco et al. 2014—but see Zamin et al. 2014). Evergreen shrubs have thick, well-defended leaves and tend to occupy nutrient-poor sites with minimal disturbance (Chapin et al. 1996). Their slower growth response may put them at a disadvantage compared with deciduous shrubs when warmed or fertilized (DeMarco et al. 2014), although in areas where they are dominant, evergreens respond rapidly to warming (Kaarlejarvi et al. 2012, Zamin et al. 2014). This article synthesizes new and existing information to clarify our understanding of the role played by vertebrate herbivores in either limiting or indirectly promoting the expansion of different shrub species in tundra ecosystems. First, we summarize what is known about the chemistry and palatability of different Arctic shrubs to herbivores and integrate this information with original data on the variation in susceptibility of shrub species to herbivory in riparian communities across a large area in Arctic Alaska. We focus on widespread erect shrub species that are mentioned in multiple studies instead of presenting an exhaustive review on all species of shrubs in the Arctic. We limit our investigation to erect shrub species whose maximum growth potential is more than or equal to 15 centimeters in height (Elmendorf et al. 2012), and we focus on the consumption of woody tissues and leaves rather than berries. Second, we use data from published exclosure studies to evaluate which species and functional groups are most strongly inhibited by herbivores. We combine this information with studies documenting the expansion of different shrub species to make inferences about the regulation of shrubs by both climate and herbivory. Third, we discuss how climate change is expected to influence herbivore populations in the Arctic and the consequences for shrub communities. Finally, we discuss the broader implications of our findings for Arctic ecosystems and suggest future research directions. Variation in the palatability of Arctic shrubs The degree to which herbivores are expected to limit the growth of different shrub species will likely be strongly 1124 BioScience • December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 linked to their individual palatability, which is dependent on the amounts of carbon-based defensive compounds, nutrients, lignin, and cellulose in plant tissues, as well as the relative palatability of other available plants (Bryant and Kuropat 1980). Secondary compounds can take the form of toxins, protein-precipitating compounds, and oxidative compounds that cause stress to herbivores or inhibit digestion (Forbey et al. 2011, Salminen and Karonin 2011). Some herbivores have behavioral and physiological adaptations that allow them to consume chemically defended shrubs (Iason and Palo 1991, DeAngelis et al. 2015). Nevertheless, broad generalizations about plant groups can be made, representing a continuum of growth–defense tradeoffs (Bryant et al. 1983, Cornelissen et al. 2004). In general, fast-growing species such as willows are the least chemically defended group of shrubs, whereas evergreen shrubs have the highest concentrations of secondary compounds. Evergreen ericoids such as Empetrum hermaphroditum and Vaccinium vitis-idaea typically accumulate high concentrations of tannins and other types of phenolics, which can inhibit the digestion of protein and cause oxidative stress to herbivores (Iason and Palo 1991, Salminen and Karonin 2011). Their leaves have low nitrogen content and also contain toxic triterpenes (table 1; Jensen and Doncaster 1999). In addition to secondary compounds, leaves of evergreen ericoid shrubs contain other unpalatable components, such as support structures and thick, waxy cuticles (Dahlgren et al. 2009). As a result, these shrubs are generally avoided by herbivores (White and Trudell 1980, Rammul et al. 2007). Alnus viridis fruticosa (Siberian alder) is a tall (with a maximum height of 12 meters) deciduous nitrogen-fixing shrub that defends its twigs and buds with resins containing the highly toxic stilbenes pinosylvin (PE) and pinosylvin methyl ether (PME; table 1; Clausen et al. 1986). Most northern browsing vertebrates avoid browsing Siberian alder (Bryant and Kuropat 1980, Hjalten and Palo 1992), although moose have been observed to consume alder in Eurasia (Bruce Forbes, Arctic Center, University of Lapland, personal communication, 16 May 2015). Alder is unique on the tolerance-defense spectrum, with its ability to simultaneously invest in moderately rapid growth and in highly effective antibrowsing defenses, which is a consequence of its capacity to fix nitrogen (Hendrickson et al. 1991). Betula nana is a deciduous shrub distributed throughout the circumpolar Arctic, consisting of two subspecies that differ in their concentrations of secondary metabolites (table 1; Graglia et al. 2001, Bryant et al. 2014). The nonresinous subspecies, B. nana nana, occurs in Fennoscandia, Iceland, Greenland, and eastern Canada, whereas the resinous B. nana exilis occurs in Siberia and western North America (Graglia et al. 2001, Bryant et al. 2014). B. nana exilis twigs are lined with resin glands, which produce toxic triterpenes such as 3-0-malyonylebetulafolientriol oxide I papyriferic acid (Forbey et al. 2011, Bryant et al. 2014, DeAngelis et al. 2015). Therefore, this subspecies is browsed less frequently than its European counterpart (see supplemental table S1 for http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org Overview Articles Table 1. Defensive compounds, nitrogen, and relative palatability of northern shrubs. Group Species Defensive compounda Evergreen Vaccinium vitis-idaea (lingonberry) Deciduous % N leavesb Palatabilityc Tannins, phenols, triterpenes 0.9 Low Empetrum ssp. (crowberry) Tannins, phenols, triterpenes, cycloalkenes, flavonoids 0.9 Low Alnus viridis (Siberian alder) Pinosylvin methyl ether, pinosylvin, phenols 2.3 Low Betula nana exilis (dwarf resin birch) Phenolic glycosides, condensed tannins, triterpenes, flavonoids 2.5 Moderate Betula nana nana (dwarf nonresin birch) Phenolic glycosides, condensed tannins, flavonoids 1.8 Moderate Betula glandulosa (tall resin birch) Phenolic glycosides, condensed tannins, triterpenes 2.3 Moderate Vaccinium uliginosum (bog bilberry) Tannins, phenols 1.8 Moderate Vaccinium myrtillus (bilberry) Tannins, phenols 2.1 High Salix spp. (willows) Phenolic glycosides, condensed tannins 3.0 High aThe types of defensive compounds were obtained from Bryant and colleagues 1983, Jensen and colleagues 1999, Graglia and colleagues 2001, Hansen and colleagues 2006, Kaarlejarvi and colleagues 2012, Szakiel and colleagues 2012, Bryant and colleagues 2014. bPercentage nitrogen from Michelsen and colleagues 1996, Graglia and colleagues 2001, Kaarlejarvi and colleagues 2012, Hansen and colleagues 2006, Thompson and Barboza 2014, Chapin 1983, and Gessner and colleagues 1998. cThe estimate of relative palatability was derived from Batzli and Lesieutre 1991 and Dahlgren and colleagues 2009. shrub species, their principal herbivores, and their response to climate drivers and herbivory). Similar to B. nana exilis, the resinous B. glandulosa (shrub birch) is defended by toxic triterpenes (Bryant et al. 2014, DeAngelis et al. 2015). However, B. glandulosa is frequently consumed by caribou and snowshoe hares (table S1; Crête and Doucet 1998, DeAngelis et al. 2015). In contrast to evergreen ericoids, the leaves of the deciduous ericoid shrub Vaccinium myrtillus are preferred foods for hares, voles, and ptarmigan (table S1; Stokkan and Steen 1980, Dahlgren et al. 2009). Furthermore, Vaccinium uliginosum is an important component of the diet of caribou in northern Canada (Crête et al. 1990). The leaves of these deciduous ericoids contain fewer secondary metabolites such as phenolics, lower lignin content, and/or higher nitrogen concentrations compared with evergreen shrubs (table 1; Cornelissen et al. 2004, Dahlgren et al. 2009, Kaarlejärvi et al. 2012). Willows are not well defended in comparison with alder, birch, and evergreen shrubs, but they are a highly diverse group, containing varying concentrations of phenolic glycosides, flavonoids, and polyphenols (table 1; Hansen et al. 2006). Willows are browsed by many species of Arctic herbivores (figure 1, table S1), and certain willows exhibit remarkable tolerance to herbivory through strong compensatory growth responses (Danell et al. 1994). Defensive compounds and climate change When exposed to increased soil fertility, as could occur with warming in tundra (Nadelhoffer et al. 1991), concentrations of carbon-based defensive substances such as terpenes and phenolics may decrease because of the increasing investment of carbon in the production of new growth (Bryant et al. 1983). In support of this hypothesis, B. nana nana, B. nana http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org exilis, and S. herbacea x polaris decreased condensed tannin concentrations after fertilization (Graglia et al. 2001, Hansen et al. 2006). However, in the same experiment, V. vitis-idaea increased concentrations of tannins after warming and nutrient addition. In a separate study, warming had little or no effect on tannin concentrations in E. hermaphroditum, V. vitis-idaea, V.myrtillus, or B. nana nana (Kaarlejärvi et al. 2012). In a study of E. hermaphroditum in Norway, the effect of experimental warming on phenolics depended on the individual phenolic compound, the nutrient regime, and the grazing intensity at the site (Väisänen et al. 2013). Clearly, the response of Arctic shrub secondary chemistry is complex and varies significantly among and within species. Variation in susceptibility to herbivory in Arctic shrubs: A case study To assess whether the continuum of tolerance versus defense in Arctic shrubs in northern Alaska explains patterns of herbivory, we surveyed six Arctic shrub species (Alnus viridis fruticosa, Betula nana exilis, S. lanata, S. glauca/niphoclada, S. pulchra, and Salix alaxensis) occurring near major river floodplains for signs of browsing. Because of the timing of sampling (early June), we were able to quantify stem and bud browsing but not leaf browsing. Supplemental text S1 describes the methods of data collection and analysis. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine whether the probability that a plant was browsed could be explained by plant species or possible confounding effects such as distance to the river and shrub height. Shrub species was an important predictor of browsing for all herbivores except snowshoe hares (figure 2; see supplemental tables S2 and S3 for model output). Willows were browsed more frequently than birch and alder by all herbivores except snowshoe hares (figure 2, figure 3). Ptarmigan browsed S. alaxensis December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 • BioScience 1125 Overview Articles Figure 1. Arctic herbivores include the willow ptarmigan (a), muskox (b), and caribou (c). Also pictured are willows recently browsed by moose and ptarmigan (d), willows with a stunted growth form due to browsing by ptarmigan (e), and a healthy alder growing in an Arctic riparian floodplain with browsed willows in the foreground (f). Willow ptarmigan photograph: Neil Paprocki; caribou photograph: Sophie Gilbert; other photographs: Katie Christie. most frequently, followed by the other willow species, and finally, B. nana exilis (figure 2). Ptarmigan did not browse A. viridis. Moose followed a similar pattern, except they appeared to avoid both B. nana exilis and A. viridis stems (figure 2). The probability of browsing by small mammals (Microtus oeconomus, Microtus miurus, Myodes rutilus, and Spermophilus parryii) was greatest for S. lanata and S. glauca and declined with shrub height and distance from the river (table S3). Snowshoe hare browsing did not vary predictably with any of the variables tested. The intensity of browsing by all herbivores (proportion of stems browsed) was greatest for S. alaxensis (46% of stems browsed), followed by S. pulchra (37%), S. glauca/niphoclada (26%), S. lanata (24%), A. viridis (19%), and B. nana exilis (17%; figure 3; see supplemental table S4 for parameter estimates). This case study represents browsing over the course of one year and therefore may not be representative of longterm patterns of herbivory, nor does it show patterns of leaf browsing by herbivores. Nevertheless, the results show 1126 BioScience • December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 striking patterns of herbivory by ptarmigan, moose and small mammals that largely adhered to the continuum of tolerance versus defense, with willows experiencing the greatest levels of herbivory and alder and birch experiencing the least. Snowshoe hares appeared to have a more general diet than other species, potentially because of b ehavioral mechanisms that enable them to consume chemically defended plants (DeAngelis et al. 2015). Evidence from this study suggests that herbivores have specific foraging strategies, which will in turn dictate their role in shaping Arctic shrub communities. These results have strong ramifications for expanding shrub communities, such that B. nana exilis and A. viridis fruticosa may have an advantage over the more heavily browsed willows. Evidence for shrub expansion and regulation by herbivores A meta-analysis of 61 warming experiments in various Arctic locations showed that evergreen shrubs are less responsive to http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org Overview Articles continue to dominate relatively cool sites with poor soils. Models incorporating both herbivory and climate change predict that in a warming climate, evergreen shrubs will have an advantage over more palatable and widely consumed deciduous shrubs, such as willows, where vertebrate herbivores are abundant (Yu et al. 2011). To evaluate this hypothesis, we summarize results from nine different exclosure studies that tested the effect of herbivores on various Arctic shrubs in figure 4 (data from these studies can be found in supplemental table S5). Studies were chosen on the basis of the following criteria: (a) the study was conducted in an Arctic or tundra environment; (b) results were presented in such a way Figure 2. Results from browsing surveys near the Noatak and Sagavanirktok that the proportional reduction in the Rivers, Alaska, showing the probability of browsing (the number of plants plant could be calculated; (c) the study browsed/number of plants surveyed) by different vertebrate herbivores. The was an exclosure study, not a browsing sample size is shown beneath the axis labels. The error bars denote positive simulation; and (d) results were reported standard errors and represent variation among sites. No error bars are shown for species, not groups of species. for A. viridis because this species was found at only one site. Exclosure studies showed that herbivores can have positive, neutral, or negative effects on evergreen shrubs (figure 4). As was predicted, herbivores reduced the height and cover of V. vitisidaea to a lesser extent (3%) than of willows (3%–10%; figure 4; den Herder et al. 2008, Pajunen et al. 2008, Kitti et al. 2009). However, multiple studies in Norway indicated that high densities of lemmings can reduce the cover of unpalatable E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea (figure 4; Olofsson et al. 2009, Hoset et al. 2014, Olofsson et al. 2014). Contrasting results were found in another study in Norway, in which herbivory by voles and lemmings increased the abundance of E. hermaphroditum (figure 4; Grellmann et al. 2002). Observational studies also reveal contrasting effects of herbivory on evergreen shrubs. Evergreen ericoids were Figure 3. The browsing intensity (mean proportion of stems browsed per decimated on a Scandinavian island plant) by all herbivores on different species of shrubs near the Noatak and with high densities of voles but thrived Sagavanirktok Rivers, Alaska. The herbivores included moose, ptarmigan, when voles were at moderate densities hares, and small mammals. The sample size is shown beneath the axis labels. (Dahlgren et al. 2009). However, no The error bars denote positive standard errors and represent variation within effect of reindeer density was observed and among sites. on the abundance of E. hermaphroditum warming than deciduous shrubs (Elmendorf et al. 2012). in Finnmark (Bräthen et al. 2007). An However, evergreen shrubs in experimentally warmed explanation for the variable effect of herbivores on unpalatchambers have been shown to rapidly increase their biomass able evergreen shrubs is that voles and lemmings feed on in low-productivity areas where they are already dominant these shrubs when at population peaks (e.g., when released (Zamin et al. 2014). Therefore, evergreen shrubs will likely from predator pressure) when preferred foods are limited http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 • BioScience 1127 Overview Articles Figure 4. The mean proportional change in height, cover, biomass, and abundance caused by herbivory; the error bars represent the standard error. The data were compiled from herbivore exclosure studies in the Arctic, and were averaged across sites (see supplemental table S5 for values from individual sites). Because the studies were conducted over different time periods, the values have been standardized so that they reflect changes over a single year. Negative and positive values indicate a decrease and increase, respectively, in the plant characteristic relative to plants that were protected from herbivores. Only studies in which exclosures were used and in which effect size was reported were included, and data from exclosures that excluded both small mammals (voles, lemmings, ground squirrels) and large mammals (reindeer, caribou, moose) were used whenever possible. All reported values are from plots experiencing ambient conditions (not fertilized or warmed). The height and cover data were obtained from Pajunen and colleagues (2008), den Herder and colleagues (2008), and Kitti and colleagues (2009); the biomass data were obtained from Olofsson and colleagues (2009; change in biomass; black), Post and Pedersen (2008; biomass index; red squares), Zamin and Grogan (2013; new stem biomass only; green triangles), and Gough and colleagues (personal communication; total aboveground biomass, blue crosses). The abundance data were obtained from Grellmann and colleagues (2002). The standard errors were calculated on the basis of the variability among sites reported in each published study. When only one data point was reported, we used the formula SE = p(1–p) , where p was the proportional reduction and n was the sample size. Color image can be viewed on the n BioScience website. (Dahlgren et al. 2009, Hoset et al. 2014), whereas at lower densities, herbivores ignore unpalatable shrubs and focus on preferred deciduous shrubs. Furthermore, trampling or light browsing can cause shoot mortality, and damage to even a small amount of tissue can be detrimental to ericoid shrubs because they are unable to replenish stored reserves in an environment where resources are often limited (Pajunen et al. 2008, Dahlgren et al. 2009). With its high growth rate, nitrogen-fixing symbionts, and formidable chemical arsenal against herbivores, alder may be uniquely positioned to take advantage of a warming Arctic climate. The paleo-record indicates that alder quickly spread in the early Holocene as temperatures warmed and moisture increased with the retreat of the glaciers (Kokorowski et al. 2008). Over the past century, A. viridis fruticosa and A. incana have thrived in northern Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and northern Sweden, and their 1128 BioScience • December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 expansion appears to be linked to warming, increased precipitation, permafrost thaw, fire frequency, and nutrient availability (Tape et al. 2006, Lantz et al. 2010, MaciasFauria 2012, Frost and Epstein 2014). Periodic insect outbreaks (Hendrickson et al. 1991), small mammals, moose (Bruce Forbes, Arctic Center, University of Lapland, personal communication, 16 May 2015) and snowshoe hares may constrain the growth of alder, and further studies on interactions with herbivores will be necessary to determine whether they moderate its expansion. Similar to what has occurred in boreal ecosystems (Butler and Kielland 2008), herbivores may foster alder expansion by consuming competing shrub species (figure 1f). Alder has the potential to substantially alter biogeochemical cycles because of its ability to fix nitrogen. There is evidence that the height, cover, and biomass of nonresinous dwarf birch (B. nana nana) are limited by http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org Overview Articles herbivores (figure 4; Graglia et al. 2001, Pajunen et al. 2008, Post and Pedersen 2008, Olofsson et al. 2009—although see Bråthen et al. 2007). Resinous dwarf birch (B. nana exilis) in North America and Siberia may not be as strongly limited by herbivores as its European counterpart because of the toxic triterpenes in its bark (Bryant et al. 2014). In northern Alaska, B. nana exilis biomass was greater outside than inside exclosures, and this was thought to be due to a competitive advantage over more palatable species in the presence of herbivores (figure 4; Gough et al. 2012). B. nana exilis responds positively to warming and nutrient addition because of its tendency to increase the number of active meristems and to produce long shoots under optimal conditions (Bret-Harte et al. 2001). This subspecies’ ability to both defend itself with chemically laden resins and respond quickly to improved conditions predisposes it to be one of the leaders of shrub expansion where it occurs in the Arctic, which is what happened in Beringia during the early Holocene warming (Kokorowski et al. 2008). Similar to B. nana exilis, B. glandulosa is a resinous birch that is expected to be minimally influenced by herbivores (Bryant et al. 2014). However, evidence indicates that caribou, when abundant, can reduce the biomass and prevent the recovery of birch for several years (figure 4; Crête and Doucet 1998, Zamin and Grogan 2012). B. glandulosa is known to respond favorably to both warming and fertilization (Zamin and Grogan 2012, Zamin et al. 2014) and therefore is likely to exploit warmer temperatures. In Nunavik, Canada, B. glandulosa has undergone a marked expansion over the past half-century despite being severely damaged by caribou in the 1980s (Tremblay et al. 2012). Deciduous ericoid shrubs such as V. uliginosum and V. myrtillus showed contrasting responses to herbivory. Although V. myrtillus biomass and abundance were reduced by herbivores in two separate exclosure studies (Grellmannn et al. 2002, Oloffsson et al. 2009), herbivores had only a slight positive effect on V. uliginosum, which in one study may have benefited from being passed over by caribou in favor of other species (figure 4; Zamin and Grogan 2013). Willows have shown remarkable resilience to herbivory when resources are available, and can compensate by producing longer, larger-diameter shoots (Bowyer and Neville 2003, Christie et al. 2014a). Nevertheless, evidence indicates that herbivores regulate willow growth, architecture, reproduction, and survival (den Herder et al. 2008, Pajunen et al. 2008, Kitti et al. 2009, Ravolainen et al. 2014). In riparian willow thickets of northern Alaska, ptarmigan browsed over 70% of individual willow shrubs (figure 2) and removed over a third of the buds, substantially altering architecture and reproduction (figure 1e; Christie et al. 2014a). Exclosure studies show that on an annual basis, herbivores reduce the height of willows by 3%–7% annually, cover by 5%–10%, and shoot length by 32%, and they increase mortality by 14% (figure 4; Grellmann 2002, den Herder et al. 2008, Pajunen et al. 2008, Kitti et al. 2009, Ravolainen et al. 2014). In contrast, herbivores appeared to increase the biomass of willows http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org in Greenland under ambient conditions but reduced their biomass response by 11% under warmed conditions (Post and Pedersen 2008). Long-term studies of shrub expansion using aerial photography and remote sensing show that willows have expanded over the past half-century in northern Alaska and Russia (Tape et al. 2006, Walker et al. 2009). In the Russian Arctic, the growth of erect willows closely tracked regional temperatures over a 60-year period despite the presence of reindeer herds (Forbes et al. 2010). In contrast, reindeer herds in Norway have drastically reduced the abundance of willows in heavily browsed areas (Ravolainen et al. 2014). Collectively, data suggest that the severe limitation of willow expansion is likely to occur only in areas of high herbivore density. In summary, the counterbalancing effects of herbivory and climate on shrub growth and height seem to vary depending on shrub species, herbivore species, and herbivore density. Although trampling and herbivory by vertebrates are likely to slow the expansion of evergreen shrubs, we hypothesize that both the top-down effects of moderate herbivory and the bottom-up effects of climate will be weakest on this group (figure 5), with the caveat that at high densities (such as on predator-free islands), herbivores can keep evergreen shrubs in check. Deciduous shrubs such as alder, birch, and willows appear to be leading the expansion of shrubs in Arctic tundra ecosystems (Tape et al. 2006, Macias-Fauria et al. 2012, Frost and Epstein 2014). We expect these species to respond favorably to increased disturbance frequency (e.g., fire, permafrost degradation, and human activities), longer growing seasons, and enhanced nutrient availability in the Arctic (figure 5; Myers-Smith et al. 2011). Exclosure and observational studies demonstrate that herbivores dampen the response of willows and B. nana nana to improved conditions in the Arctic (figure 5), whereas herbivores only slightly moderate the response of better-defended species such as B. nana exilis and Alnus viridis, and these species may expand more rapidly, in part because of higher rates of herbivory on more palatable species (figure 5). Interestingly, during the late glacial transition (approximately 16,000–11,000 calendar year Before Present), B. nana exilis and Alnus viridis dominated the positive response of vegetation to increased temperatures in Beringia (Kokorowski et al. 2008). Herbivore density will influence the response of shrubs to improved conditions in the Arctic such that at low herbivore densities, inherent physiological characteristics and site conditions will define shrub responses to improved conditions (Rinnan et al. 2009, Myers-Smith et al. 2011). At medium herbivore densities, palatable deciduous shrubs will be targeted by herbivores, encouraging unpalatable deciduous and evergreen shrubs to flourish (Dahlgren et al. 2009). At high herbivore densities, the expansion of all three groups may be inhibited because herbivores will be less selective and more likely to trample vegetation (Pajunen et al. 2008, Dahlgren et al. 2009, Olofsson et al. 2009). Much remains to be learned about the counterbalancing forces of climate and herbivory December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 • BioScience 1129 Overview Articles and increased fire frequency and severity. Climate factors such as extreme weather events cause synchronous population declines among Arctic vertebrates (Hansen et al. 2013). Warmer winters are expected to continue to dampen rodent population cycles, which in turn strongly influence vegetation (Hoset et al. 2007, Ims et al. 2011). Tundra specialists may over time become replaced by species better adapted to boreal conditions as shrubs expand and sub-Arctic vegetation becomes more prevalent (Callaghan et al. 2004). Increased fire severity in the Arctic is expected to decrease winter habitat for caribou by up to 30%, but increase moose habitat by 19%–63% (Joly et al. 2012). Already, caribou have experienced declines in many parts of their range because of anthropogenic factors and climate change (Festa-Bianchet et al. 2011—although see Kolpaschikov et al. 2015), whereas for reindeer, the negative effects of climate change have been offset by supplemental feeding, leading to population increases in some parts of their range (Forbes 2010). Moose (Alces alces) and hares (Lepus americanus, Lepus europaeus) appear to be expanding northward (Jansson and Pehrson 2007, Schmidt et al. 2009). Ptarmigan, who use willows for food and cover from predators, may benefit in the short term from shrub expansion, because their distribution is strongly linked to the amount of shrubs exposed above the snow (Christie et al. 2014b). However, warm winters may counteract this effect and have adverse effects on Arctic ptarmigan populations by lowering the quality of subnivean roost sites and increasing the probability of rain events (Wang et al. 2002). As Arctic specialists retreat northward and boreal species expand into a more hospitable Arctic, trophic interactions are likely to change. Boreal predators and pathogens may expand northward to exploit prey–host populations and may subsequently regulate their densities (Van der Putten et al. 2010) and reduce their impact on the vegetation (Dahlgren et al. 2009). Figure 5. An illustration of how moderate levels of herbivory and climate change are predicted to regulate different shrub groups. The thickness of the arrows represents the hypothesized strength of the effect, with the dashed line representing the weakest effect. The effect of climate depends on the response to altered conditions and site conditions, whereas the effect of herbivory depends on palatability, browsing pressure, tolerance, and resource limitation. The plus signs reflect the net effect of top-down and bottom-up forces, and more plus signs indicate a greater predicted shrub expansion under climate change. in the Arctic, and future research that examines these processes across a range of herbivore densities and shrub communities is needed. Climate change and herbivore populations Herbivore populations in the Arctic are likely to change with shifting vegetation composition and phenology, increased temperatures and precipitation, longer growing seasons, 1130 BioScience • December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 Conclusions Naito and Cairns (2015) reported that Arctic river valleys are at a “tipping point,” shifting inexorably toward homogenous erect shrublands, with permanently altered structure and function. Evidence from long-term observational and experimental studies indicates that herbivores reduce but do not prevent the expansion of fast-growing deciduous shrubs such as willows and nonresinous dwarf birch, thereby moderating the positive effects of climate warming on shrubs. Variation in nutritional chemistry among Arctic shrubs translates to strong preferences for (and damage to) palatable deciduous shrubs, despite the ability of many willows to compensate for browsing. Evergreen shrubs are generally less preferred by herbivores but can be vulnerable to trampling and browsing where animals are at high densities. The well-defended Siberian alder and resinous dwarf birch are generally not preferred by herbivores and may outpace the expansion of more palatable willows, although studies are needed to test this hypothesis. Although it is clear that herbivores have the capacity to influence shrub growth, http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org Overview Articles how herbivore populations will respond to altered climate regimes and vegetation communities is unknown and warrants further investigation. Expanding populations of herbivores will consume large quantities of deciduous shrubs and may play an increasing role in moderating their growth. The effects of herbivory extend beyond aboveground changes to Arctic ecosystems, and herbivores are known to influence nitrogen and carbon cycling and net ecosystem productivity. Herbivores can increase ecosystem productivity by creating small-scale disturbances, fertilizing soils, and increasing microbial activity, resulting in shifts among alternative stable states (Stark et al. 2002, Olofsson et al. 2004, van der Wal et al. 2006). Furthermore, by inhibiting shrub expansion, herbivores can mediate the effects of climate warming on carbon dioxide exchange in tundra ecosystems (Cahoon et al. 2012, Väisänen et al. 2014). To better understand how trophic interactions between herbivores and shrubs are expected to change, we suggest the following four research directions: (1) Changes in shrub height, biomass, and abundance should be monitored over the long term to determine rates of expansion for different species. (2) Herbivore exclosures need to be maintained over the long term across a broad range of Arctic habitat types and climate conditions to quantify the effects of herbivores, and they should be designed to exclude both large and small herbivores while not altering snow conditions. These studies also need to clearly establish the links between herbivory and carbon and nitrogen cycling. (3) The distribution and abundance of important Arctic herbivores needs to be monitored over the long term to determine how climate change is affecting their populations. (4) Studies need to monitor the expansion of alder and the role herbivores play in limiting its expansion. Arctic ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented change, and we recognize top-down control by herbivores as a crucially important process in attempting to understand and model these changes. 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Laura Gough ([email protected]) is a professor and chair of the Department of Biological Sciences at Towson University where she studies how plant communities are structured and influence ecosystem properties, particularly in arctic tundra. Virve T. Ravolainen ([email protected]) researches plant ecology in Arctic ecosystems at the Norwegian Polar Institute, in Tromsø, Norway. Roger W Ruess ([email protected]) is a professor of biology at the University of Alaska, in Fairbanks, where he researches herbivory and nutrient cycling in northern ecosystems. Ken D. Tape ([email protected]) is an ecologist at the Institute for Northern Engineering at the University of Alaska, in Fairbanks, where he researches landscape changes in the Arctic. December 2015 / Vol. 65 No. 12 • BioScience 1133
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