Disproportionality and Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet n William R. Freudenburg, University of California, Santa Barbara Robert Gramling, University of Louisiana, Lafayette Shirley Laska, University of New Orleans Kai T. Erikson, Yale University Objectives. Although many observers have interpreted Hurricane Katrina’s damage to New Orleans as a case of nature striking humans, we draw on the sociological concept of the growth machine to show that much of the damage resulted instead from what humans had done to nature—in the name but not the reality of ‘‘economic development.’’ Methods. We triangulate findings from multiple qualitative techniques, including first-hand fieldwork, interviews, and analyses of historical records. We focus on a particularly telling illustration: the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet, a transportation canal. Results. Although the canal was widely predicted to deliver prosperity, it mainly created environmental damage, destroying wetlands that had formerly protected New Orleans from hurricanes. Despite enthusiastic predictions about its economic importance—plus millions of dollars in ongoing federal investments—the ‘‘outlet’’ was used by only a dozen of the ships for which it was designed during the entire last year before Katrina hit. Conclusions. This was clearly not a case of an ‘‘enduring conflict’’ between the environment and the economy; it was a case where economic benefits to a tiny number of beneficiaries created profound costs to the environment, and to humans in turn. Claims about supposed ‘‘economic benefits’’ from environmentally harmful projects need to be examined more closely in other contexts, as well. Decades ago, Molotch (1970) noted that more than oil had escaped during the disaster of the 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill—‘‘a bit of truth about power’’ had escaped as well. In the wake of that spill, he argued that acn Direct correspondence to William R. Freudenburg, Dehlsen Professor of Environment and Society, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4160. Several author meetings and some of the first-hand fieldwork were made possible by support from the American Sociological Association, the MacArthur, Russell Sage, Ford, Rockefeller, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundations, the Social Science Research Council Task Force on Katrina, and the Dehlsen Professorship of the University of California, Santa Barbara, which we gratefully acknowledge. All views and conclusions reported in this article, however, are ours alone. This is a revised version of an article originally prepared for the 2007 Annual Meeting, American Sociological Association, New York. SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY, Volume 90, Number 3, September 2009 r 2009 by the Southwestern Social Science Association 498 Social Science Quarterly cidents could provide important opportunities for insights that might be more deeply hidden under other circumstances. In the same spirit, Hurricane Katrina may have revealed more than just the inadequacies of levees around New Orleans—the storm may also have opened opportunities for insights into relationships between humans and the biophysical world. To date, the most influential analyses of environment-society relationships—ranging from classic works by Catton (1980), Schnaiberg (1980), and O’Connor (1988) to more recent analyses by York, Rosa, and Dietz (2003)—have tended to treat environmental harm as being proportionate to overall levels of economic prosperity. In recent decades, such beliefs began to be challenged by macro-level thinking on ‘‘ecological modernization’’ (e.g., Spaargaren and Mol, 1992) and by work on what proponents call ‘‘environmental Kuznets curves,’’ ‘‘postmaterialism,’’ and the ‘‘environmental state,’’ but evidence to support such challenges has been mixed, at best (for reviews, see Fisher and Freudenburg, 2004; Brechin and Kempton, 1997; Buttel, 2000; York, Rosa, and Dietz, 2003). Still more recently, however, a more fine-grained approach has argued that much or most environmental damage actually results from a surprisingly small fraction of all economic activity. In contrast with macro-level approaches, this newer work on disproportionality has begun to receive clear empirical support, in contexts that range from U.S. toxic emissions and automobiles, to sources of urban runoff into midwestern lakes, to demands for water in the western United States (Berry, 2008; Bishop and Stedman, 1996; Freudenburg, 2005; Nowak, Bowen, and Cabot, 2006). Perhaps the clearest expression of the disproportionality perspective to date has been the ‘‘double diversion’’ hypothesis, involving a pair of expectations. The first is that, rather than providing an overall benefit to ‘‘capitalism,’’ profits from environmental rights and resources will generally be diverted to a few disproportionately damaging activities. This disproportionality (the ‘‘first diversion’’) is expected to be made possible in part because of the ‘‘second diversion,’’ or the diversion of attention, involving the widespread but generally unchallenged expectation that such environmentally harmful activities will be ‘‘necessary’’ for jobs and the economy, or for capitalism (Freudenburg, 2005, 2006). Work on disproportionality thus shares a good deal of compatibility with the ‘‘growth machine’’ perspective—the expectation that local governments will promote land-use intensification, bringing profits to land-based local elites, often through the claim but usually not the reality of better job prospects for local workers—turning a city into what Molotch (1976, 1999) has called a ‘‘growth machine’’ (see also Logan and Molotch, 1987). The growth machine perspective has generated a good deal of research— and criticism. In a review that dealt with New Orleans, for example, Lauria (1999) criticized its focus on land-based elites, arguing that ‘‘what is important here is not the economic activities, but rather the control over the consensus-seeking/ideological discourse’’ (1999:138). Other authors fault Disproportionality and Disaster 499 growth machine work for placing too much emphasis on local political actors, offering sharply different views of what Gandy (2002:8) called ‘‘the crucial role of capital in the shaping of urban space.’’ In particular, a number of important and more recent analyses have seen local governments as being situated in what Desfor and Keil (2004:212) have described as ‘‘a field of tension among the state, the global economy, and civil society.’’ From critics’ perspectives—far from being a process that can be appropriately understood as involving interactions between local government actors and land-based elites—urban development needs to be seen as ‘‘a globally induced but locally contingent process’’ (Desfor and Keil, 2004:212–13; see also Kirby, 1993; Magnusson, 1996; but see also Freudenburg, 2005, 2006; O’Neill, 2006; Reisner, 1993; Swyngedouw, 2004; Worster, 1985). In the following pages, we consider Katrina and disproportionality in light of such critiques, doing so in three main sections. In the first, we briefly review the common belief that the drowning of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina mainly provides evidence about the city’s physical location or ‘‘site.’’ In the second, we present an alternative interpretation, drawing more directly from growth machine/disproportionality perspectives, interpreting the misery of New Orleans not just in terms of the physical location of the city, but also in light of what human political-economic systems, local and nonlocal, had previously done to that site. In the third and final section, we consider implications for future research, both in New Orleans and elsewhere. Horrors and Hurricanes When Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Louisiana Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, it created the most expensive disaster of all time, and one of America’s deadliest. It killed some 1,500 people in Louisiana alone, with more than 700 others still being listed as ‘‘missing’’ more than two years later (Independent Levee Investigation Team, 2006b). Early reports focused on the uniqueness of New Orleans—a city with a long history and perhaps the most distinctive cuisine in the United States—and concluded that the city’s suffering was equally unique, due to its location along a low stretch of the U.S. coast that often gets hit by hurricanes (see, e.g., Grunwald, 2005; Knabb, Rhome, and Brown, 2005). When the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had previously identified disasters that seemed to be waiting to happen, after all, a hurricane striking New Orleans had been one of the very top possibilities (Laska, 2004). In some senses, then, perhaps early observers could be forgiven for concluding that disaster was simply no longer ‘‘waiting to happen’’—it happened. Both before Katrina and since then, moreover, well-respected academics have put forth similar arguments. Perhaps the best-known analysis of New Orleans is Lewis’s (2003) historical geography, New Orleans: The Making of an Urban Landscape. This is no hatchet job; in the first edition, Lewis noted 500 Social Science Quarterly that he had become ‘‘too fond of New Orleans to be very dispassionate,’’ saying that he considered this to be an exceptional, ‘‘successful’’ city, beloved by its residents and praised by its visitors. In the aftermath of Katrina, however, Lewis’s thoughtful analysis was perhaps most often remembered for a one-sentence summary that seemed to encapsulate, concisely, what so many Americans were thinking at the time: New Orleans may have been an ‘‘inevitable city,’’ but it was in an ‘‘impossible location’’ (Lewis, 2003:xi, 9). In a distinction that would be taken up by others in Katrina’s aftermath, Lewis saw New Orleans as providing a classic illustration of the differences between ‘‘site’’ and ‘‘situation’’: Site is the actual real estate which the city occupies, and the site for New Orleans is wretched. Situation is what we commonly mean when we speak of a place with respect to neighboring places. New Orleans’ situation is its location near the mouth of the Mississippi, and the fact that a million people work and make a living on this evil site only exemplifies the excellence of the situation. There is no contradiction. If a city’s situation is good enough, its site will be altered to make do. (Lewis, 2003:19–20) Just two days after Katrina, Kelman posted a similar interpretation on the web, suggesting that much of the hurricane’s damage was due to the city’s site or physical location. He argued that the suffering of thousands of New Orleanians, stranded in the Superdome without water, sanitation, or federal help, provided ‘‘an apt metaphor for New Orleans’ environmental history’’: The sodden city has long placed itself in harm’s way, relying on uncertain artifice to protect it from unpredictable environs. New Orleans is utterly dependent for its survival on engineered landscapes and the willful suspension of disbelief that technology has allowed its citizens to sustain. . . . New Orleans’ dysfunctional relationship with its environment may make it the nation’s most improbable metropolis. It is flood prone. It is cursed with a fertile disease environment. It is located along a well-worn pathway that tropical storms travel. . . . From this perspective, New Orleans has earned all the scorn being heaped upon it—the city is a misguided urban project, a fool’s errand, a disaster waiting to happen. . . . New Orleans has a nearperfect situation and an almost unimaginably bad site. It’s because of the former that people have worked endlessly to overcome the hazards of the latter. (Kelman, 2005) As suggested above, however, other authors challenge the sharp distinction between ‘‘site’’ and ‘‘situation,’’ and others challenge sharp distinctions between ‘‘environment’’ and ‘‘society’’ more broadly. Authors such as Castree (1995) and Smith (1996), for example, treat ‘‘nature’’ and ‘‘society’’ as what Swyngedouw (2004:11) calls ‘‘fundamentally combined historically geographical production processes,’’ and others go further. Harvey (1996), notably, insists that there is nothing particularly ‘‘unnatural’’ about urban regions such as New York, while Lewontin (1997:137) argues that ‘‘the environment’’ as such ‘‘does not exist,’’ and Swyngedouw (2004:11) Disproportionality and Disaster 501 concludes that ‘‘there is no such thing as an unsustainable city in general, but rather there are a series of urban and environmental processes that negatively affect some social groups while benefiting others.’’ As will be seen in the following pages—and as suggested in Molotch’s original article (1976)—the New Orleans growth machine clearly did ‘‘negatively affect some social groups while benefiting others.’’ In the wake of Katrina, however, many observers raised questions precisely about the ‘‘sustainability’’ of a sea-level location in a hurricane-prone region, and only a complex argument could hold that ‘‘environmental’’ factors such as Hurricane Katrina’s winds and waters ‘‘did not exist.’’ Instead, we find it more sensible to treat ‘‘environmental’’ and ‘‘social’’ factors as ‘‘fundamentally combined’’ (Swyngedouw, 2004:11), or as displaying ‘‘conjoint constitution’’ or ‘‘mutual contingency’’ (Freudenburg, Frickel, and Gramling, 1995), offering what Gandy (2002:12) called ‘‘a more productive interaction between insights derived from the social and ecological sciences.’’ From this perspective, even if the destructive force of hurricanes may be increasing, exacerbated by human-induced global warming, hurricanes of today still resemble the ones that have struck the coast since before homo sapiens appeared on earth—and even if New Orleans is a city built by humans, while its location was built by nature, the city’s vulnerability may well be best understood as involving an interaction of both ‘‘natural’’ and ‘‘social’’ factors. In light of the broader literature, in short, we see it as worthwhile to consider not just what an ‘‘almost unimaginably bad’’ expanse of nature did to the people who were trying to make a living there, but also to ask what people did to nature in that region—with what consequences for themselves and their fellow residents. Growth Machine Damage to Environmental Defenses In some ways, the story of Katrina seems well-known. It was a powerful storm—the fourth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, and the strongest ever documented in the Gulf of Mexico, at least at the time. (Hurricane Rita would break both records just four weeks later.) Katrina roared ashore just after 6:00 A.M. on August 29, 2005, with sustained winds of 125 mph, creating a significant natural disaster for southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The Mississippi coast, in particular, was battered by the hurricane’s powerful right hook, where the storm’s counterclockwise rotation created especially serious damage, destroying 68,729 houses in the state (Ripley, 2006). For New Orleans itself, however, the telling story was a different one. In the first few hours after Katrina made landfall, mass media reports— largely from reporters in the relatively high and dry hotels of the French Quarter—suggested that New Orleans had dodged the storm’s right hook and thus the major flooding that had been feared. These reports, however, 502 Social Science Quarterly were wrong by the time they were issued. Even before the eye of the hurricane passed New Orleans at roughly 9:00 A.M., floodwalls that had been built along several of the city’s canals by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers had already begun to fail. Over the next several days, the organizational responses by the Federal Emergency Management Agency would fail even more severely. Less well-known, meanwhile—but no less relevant for work on environment-society relationships—are other ways in which the same Army Corps of Engineers had already begun to shape the region before the building of the floodwalls. The Un-Natural Disaster A useful starting point involves a widely known fact that has nevertheless escaped notice in most analyses to date. The most important failures came in three canals—those known locally as the London Avenue, 17th Street, and Industrial Canals—that all had floodwalls of roughly equal elevations. All three connect to ‘‘Lake’’ Pontchartrain, the brackish water body to the north of New Orleans that connects to the Gulf of Mexico (see Figure 1). From the start, the Corps claimed that the flooding came from Lake Pontchartrain (see, e.g., Vartabedian and Pae, 2005), meaning that water depths should have been roughly equal across the three canals. In reality, however, water never rose within five to eight feet of the tops of the walls of two canals— those along London Avenue and 17th Street. On the third—the Industrial Canal—water surged well over the top. Unless the laws of fluid mechanics were temporarily repealed on August 29, that simply could not have happened if the explanations from the Corps of Engineers had been correct. The two photos in Figure 2 show the story. One—taken by Nathan Bassiouni as he helped in the citizen rescue effort that came to be called the ‘‘Cajun Flotilla’’—shows the 17th Street floodwall failure the day after the storm. As can be seen, some water was still flowing into the city, but the water was virtually even with the bottom of the concrete portion of the wall, making it about eight feet below the top of the wall. Even the ‘‘bathtub ring’’ from the muddy flooding of the day before was not much higher. The other photo, taken several weeks later by one of the authors, shows the gash on the ‘‘back’’ side of the Industrial Canal wall, facing what was once the densely populated lower Ninth Ward. As several hydrologists have confirmed, this gash was clearly carved by water that poured over the top of the wall. Near the top of this photo once stood the gash-weakened portion of the wall that failed catastrophically, blowing more than 170 feet into the neighborhood. To understand why the water should have risen so much higher in the Industrial Canal than in the other two canals, it is helpful to start significantly earlier and consider another comparison: each hurricane is to some degree unique, but Katrina was by no means the first major hurricane to Disproportionality and Disaster 503 FIGURE 1 Flooded Portions of New Orleans and Vicinity NOTE: Flooded portions of New Orleans and vicinity after Katrina (darker colors), showing locations of MRGO and major breached canals. The longest of the three canals (on the right) is the Industrial Canal, where floodwaters were six to eight feet deeper than in the other two. MRGO, at the lower right, connects to the Gulf of Mexico. Note that all three canals connect directly into Lake Pontchartrain and thus should have had comparable water levels. Photograph courtesy of SPOT at the University of California, Santa Barbara, r CNES 2005, distributed by Terra Images USA, LLC and SPOT IMAGE. deliver a relatively direct hit to New Orleans. In particular, Hurricanes Betsy and Camille, in 1965 and 1969, respectively, came within a few miles of Katrina’s track, and by a number of measures, both the earlier storms should have created about as much damage to the city as Katrina. In simple terms, wind speeds are often used as a way of measuring hurricane strength, but people are most likely to be killed by a hurricane’s water, not its wind. Given that the deadliest flooding is usually driven by a hurricane’s leading ‘‘right hook,’’ Betsy’s track, just to the west of the city, was especially ominous. In practice, both Camille and Betsy created some flooding, with Betsy, in particular, killing 76 Louisiana residents and flooding about 20 percent of New Orleans. Betsy also inspired what the Army Corps of Engineers called ‘‘The Hurricane Protection Program’’—the 504 Social Science Quarterly FIGURE 2 Evidence of Different Water Depths in 17th Street and Industrial Canals NOTE: Top photo, taken by Nathan Bassiouni on the day after Katrina, shows failure in 17th Street Canal floodwall. Note that water barely reaches the bottom of the concrete portion of the wall, about eight feet below top, and that even water stains from day before are significantly below top of wall. Bottom photo, taken by William Freudenburg several weeks later, shows gash on back (populated) side of Industrial Canal floodwall, carved by water that came over the top of the wall. The gash was deeper behind the parts of the wall that once stood near the top of the photo, which were driven more than 170 feet into what had formerly been a densely populated urban neighborhood. Disproportionality and Disaster 505 building of the very levees and floodwalls that failed to protect the city from Katrina, even though they were significantly higher and stronger than those that were present in the 1960s. Despite the improved if still fallible hurricane protection, however, Katrina flooded 80 percent of the city, killing roughly 20 times as many people as Betsy. In short, something besides the building of floodwalls must have happened between 1965 and 2005—and according to environmental scientists, perhaps the most important such changes involved a substantial loss of wetlands. As recently as 1960, Louisiana still had the vast majority of the wetlands that had greeted the earliest French explorers. During the four decades between Betsy and Katrina, however, Louisiana would lose more of its wetlands than had disappeared in the previous four centuries—roughly 1,700 square miles, or just over 1 million of its 4 million acres. For context, that is an area nearly as large as Delaware. In recent years, land has been disappearing at the rate of one football field every 30 to 45 seconds, two to three square miles every month, and 30 square miles—a Manhattan Island or more—every year (U.S. Geological Survey, 2005). By the time Katrina hit, the once-thick band of wetlands was in tatters—and after Katrina hit, so was New Orleans. Those losses, moreover, were not simply due to ‘‘nature.’’ They had to do with a range of causes, including oil and gas extraction and the building of upstream dams and levees, but to the southeast of New Orleans—the direction from which Katrina’s deadliest storm surges attacked the city—the key factor was more specific. This is the location of a canal that was supposed to deliver prosperity to New Orleans, but that in fact appears to have delivered disaster. MRGO and Gone? When Hurricane Betsy slammed ashore in 1965—becoming ‘‘BillionDollar Betsy,’’ or the first storm in the United States to create more than a billion dollars in property damage—many residents of New Orleans and adjacent St. Bernard Parish were incensed. They blamed the flooding on a then-new navigation canal known as the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet, or MRGO—pronounced almost universally as ‘‘Mister Go,’’ but at least since the time of Betsy also known locally as ‘‘the hurricane highway’’ (Brown, 2006; see also Day, 2005). Although few people outside of the region had heard of MRGO before Katrina struck, it had been controversial in the region ever since it was first proposed. It was a ‘‘tidewater’’ or sea-level canal, stretching from the heart of New Orleans down to the Gulf of Mexico—a giant ditch, some 75 miles long, that simply parallels the last 120 miles of the Mississippi River. Despite the controversy, examination of historical federal documents, newspaper files, and other records makes it clear that this was not a case where national-level interests decided to build a project, despite local 506 Social Science Quarterly opposition, nor ‘‘a globally induced but locally contingent process’’ (Desfor and Keil, 2004:212–13)—and neither were local governments caught ‘‘in a field of tension among the state, the global economy, and civil society’’ (Desfor and Keil, 2004:212). This, instead, came much closer to classic growth machine dynamics (Molotch, 1976, 1999). As spelled out in greater detail in a forthcoming, book-length treatment (Freudenburg et al., 2009), local elites led the way, enlisting support from local and then state-level officials, working higher-level political systems for years, ultimately bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funds. One illustration of the cozy relationships between local elites and politicians involves the Board of Commissioners for the Port of New Orleans, locally known as the ‘‘Dock Board.’’ It was established in 1896, under Louisiana Act 70, which even specified that the commissioners must be ‘‘predominantly identified with the commerce or business interest of the port of New Orleans.’’ For years, the Dock Board dreamed of a canal that would make New Orleans a seaport—not just a ‘‘river town,’’ more than 100 miles from the Gulf. In the 1920s, work on the Panama Canal led to new technologies that offered the first real potential for realizing that dream. The hunt for federal funding was slowed by the Great Depression and by the fact that the chief of the Army Corps of Engineers initially found ‘‘no necessity for another deep-water outlet from the Mississippi River and no justification for acquisition of the Industrial Canal and lock at New Orleans’’ (U.S. House of Representatives, 1936, as quoted in U.S. House of Representatives, 1951:19). During World War II, however, local boosters changed their sales pitch, arguing that the entire nation might suffer if an enemy were somehow to ‘‘close’’ the mouth of the river. For the most part, local mass media simply cheered them on; the New Orleans Item, for example, editorialized that ‘‘the port’s life-line should not depend entirely upon a crooked, fog-covered, silt-bearing, temperamental river channel, which might otherwise restrain or restrict the growth of the port of New Orleans like a Chinese girl’s foot’’ (New Orleans Item, 1943:21, as quoted in Azcona, 2006:91–92). In April and May 1943, Congress responded favorably. First the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee and then the House Committee on Rivers and Harbors directed the Corps of Engineers to study ‘‘the advisability and cost of providing an emergency outlet from the Mississippi River in the interest of national defense and general commerce.’’ The Army was engaged in World War II at the time, but after the war, in May 1948, the Chief of Engineers for the Army did finally endorse the idea of a new canal, stretching from New Orleans down to the Gulf of Mexico. The Chief of Engineers was limited in his enthusiasm, but the governor of Louisiana was not; he proudly proclaimed that the project would be of ‘‘inestimable benefit’’ to the state and nation. Still, under the law, the Corps of Engineers actually needed to ‘‘estimate’’ the benefits and compare them against the costs of the new project. In 1951, Disproportionality and Disaster 507 the Corps presented a modestly positive benefit-cost analysis (BCA) to Congress. The Director of the Bureau of the Budget was even less enthusiastic, noting that the project could not be justified in terms of ‘‘direct monetary benefits from the outlet channel to the Gulf.’’ Still, he decided there could be enough ‘‘advantages of convenience and efficiency’’ from combining MRGO with a harbor improvement project in New Orleans that he would have ‘‘no objection’’ to the project, ‘‘with the understanding, however, that no appropriation for construction of the project will be sought until such time as the budgetary situation clearly makes possible the initiation of such improvements.’’ Had the Director of the Bureau of the Budget been more careful, he might have indicated that ‘‘no appropriation for construction’’ would be sought by his office. Local boosters, on the other hand, had been seeking funds for more than a quarter of a century by then, and they were under no such constraint. With support from Louisiana’s congressional delegation, they finally won full authorization for the canal in the 1956 ‘‘River and Harbors Act’’—but without the improvements to the harbor that had swayed the Director of the Budget. Although the common pattern was for ‘‘authorized’’ projects to wait for years before receiving actual federal funding, the Dock Board itself soon used $200,000, advanced from the New Orleans Levee Board, to initiate construction with a literal bang, using 180 sticks of dynamite to create what the New Orleans Times Picayune would call a ‘‘helpful explosion for world trade.’’ The ‘‘explosion’’ was a trivially small fraction of the project’s overall cost, which ultimately ran to $580 million (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2007), but it was a clever public relations gimmick—part of the effort to convince the world that the new canal would be incredibly busy, a wet version of an urban freeway at rush hour. After still more lobbying and then years of construction, an interim canal was dredged to half the final width in 1963, when a ship called Del Sud took the first trip along the full length of the channel. The canal was officially completed to its full design width in 1968 (Brown, 2006; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2001). Hurricane Betsy—and the first depictions of MRGO as the ‘‘hurricane highway’’—came between these two dates, in 1965. The Corps disagreed with its critics at that time, and it still does. The Corps also argues that the canal played only a minor role in Katrina’s damage, being responsible for having increased the height of the storm surge by a fraction of a foot at most (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2006a). On the other hand, many citizens of the region, along with a number of independent technical analyses, point to important environmental problems that are left out of the evaluation by the Corps (see, e.g., Independent Levee Investigation Team, 2006a, 2006b; Van Heerden and Bryan, 2006; Bea, 2006). We find the independent analyses to be more credible. Even before MRGO was opened, critics argued that, being nearly as straight as a gun barrel, and with no fresh-water flow to keep out saltwater, the ‘‘Outlet’’ would serve instead as an ‘‘inlet,’’ allowing salt water to kill 508 Social Science Quarterly salt-sensitive plants in the wetlands that historically protected New Orleans from hurricanes. Wetlands are important shock absorbers for hurricane storm surges, which are slowed and weakened by friction. A widely quoted estimate that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ironically produced in 1963 (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1963), as MRGO was being excavated, holds that a band of coastal wetlands 2.7 miles wide will lower a storm surge by one foot. Later calculations indicate that cypress trees, which are strong and well-rooted, can greatly increase the friction, reducing storm surges nearly three times as effectively (van Heerden, 2006; Robinson and NewtonSmall, 2006). Unfortunately, the wetlands to the southeast of New Orleans, and the cypress swamps in particular, were devastated by MRGO. The fragile wetland soils removed by the Corps during the original excavation proved to be only the beginning—the start of ever-worsening wetlands losses. Concerns had been raised not just by local opponents—including the Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission (1957)—but also by the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, who wrote the Secretary of the Army in 1957, explaining that the dredging could destroy the estuaries that formed the backbone of local shrimp, oyster, and fishing industries, as well as degrading the marshes. In April 1958, the St. Bernard Parish Police Jury went further, reversing an earlier statement of support for the project (Brown, 2006). As noted by a later article in the New Orleans Times-Picayune: ‘‘The parish’s fears were dismissed by channel-backers, including The Times-Picayune, which stated in a later editorial that saltwater intrusion into freshwater marshes was ‘not to be feared’’’ (Brown, 2006). Unfortunately, the environmental concerns proved to be largely on-target, while the channel’s boosters were almost completely wrong. The initial excavation removed more dirt than the Panama Canal, but that merely started a vicious, self-reinforcing cycle. Salinity began to rise almost as soon as the Del Sud made the first trip in 1963. At Shell Beach, about half-way up the ‘‘outlet,’’ salinity more than tripled, rising from an average of 3.5 parts per thousand (PPT) in 1959–1961 to 12 PPT in 1962–1964 (Kerlin, 1979; Caffey and Leblanc, 2002). By the end of the century, the Corps of Engineers itself (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1999) concluded that more than 11,000 acres of fresh or intermediate marshes and cypress swamps had turned into brackish or partially salty marshes, spelling death for cypress and other plants that could not survive the salt. Just as critics feared, moreover, when the plants died, marshes began to disappear. With plants no longer holding the soil, surrounding wetlands would slump into the channel—after which the Corps would dredge the channel yet again, letting in still more salt water, which would destroy still more plant life. Historically, New Orleans was protected from hurricanes by two lines of defense—an outer ring of natural defenses, provided by wetlands, and a narrower ring of anthropogenic protection from levees and floodwalls. As noted earlier, the floodwalls protecting New Orleans from Katrina were Disproportionality and Disaster 509 significantly higher and stronger than those that had protected the city from the earlier ravages of Hurricanes Betsy and Camille, but the outer layer of defenses—having been exposed to environmentally devastating changes in the name of economic development—were no longer able to provide the protection they once offered. All in all, depending on the estimate being used, MRGO has helped destroy 20,000–65,000 acres of wetlands—up to 100 of the 500 square miles of previously healthy wetlands in the very direction from which hurricane damage to New Orleans could be most severe, namely, the southeast (Carter and Stern, 2006; Lake Pontchartrain Basin Foundation, 2005). Although cypress tress can live from 500–700 years under ‘‘natural’’ conditions, resisting even hurricane-force winds, thousands of acres of formally healthy cypress trees have now been replaced by what many locals call ‘‘ghost swamps,’’ where only a few dead tree trunks are left, standing in mute testimony to the cypress-killing power of salt. ‘‘Economic Survival,’’ Real and Imagined In the aftermath of Katrina, one criticism was that the federal government had not provided enough money to build needed flood protection projects. At least that charge, however, seems misdirected: Louisiana actually received far more money for Corps civil works projects from 2000–2005 than any other state—about $1.9 billion—well ahead of $1.4 billion for second-place California, which has a coastline three times as long and a population more than seven times larger. Unfortunately, most of that ‘‘investment’’ went into MRGO and other so-called economic development projects. Former Louisiana Senator Breaux, for example, told the Washington Post: ‘‘We thought all the projects were important—not just levees.’’ Although ‘‘hindsight’’ might have suggested different priorities, he said, ‘‘navigation projects were critical to our economic survival’’ (Grunwald, 2005). The senator may well have believed that claim—and so may social scientists who choose to characterize projects such as MRGO as having been built to support ‘‘economic prosperity’’ or ‘‘capitalism.’’ Still, the disproportionality/growth machine literature argues that stated intentions need to be measured against actual performance—the extent to which environmentally destructive projects actually do contribute to economic development. In practice, like other mega-projects considered by Flyvbjerg, Bruzelius, and Rothengatter (2003), MRGO cost more but delivered less than expected. Actual ship traffic never matched the official forecasts—to say nothing of the even more enthusiastic claims by local boosters—and despite everincreasing expenditures for dredging, the shipping traffic subsequently dropped. According to figures compiled by Camillo (2008), during 2004, the last full fiscal year before Katrina, U.S. taxpayers spent an additional $19.1 million in dredging MRGO once more—all so the channel could be used for only about a dozen round trips by ships that actually needed the 510 Social Science Quarterly dredging (13 ships in one direction, 10 in the other). That amounts to more than $1.5 million per round trip, mainly for ships being scrapped or carrying low-value products such as frozen chickens. For comparison purposes, MRGO carried less than half of a single percent of southern Louisiana’s water-borne cargo in 2004, while the ‘‘crooked, fog-covered, silt-bearing, temperamental’’ Mississippi River carried more than 250 times as much freight (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2006b; see also Freudenburg et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2009). Discussion: The Real Looting? In many senses, New Orleans and southern Louisiana are unique, and Katrina was unique by definition: no other disaster has created such expensive damage. In a broader sense, however, only further research can reveal whether the drowning of New Orleans—or the failure to examine the economic as well as environmental costs of pork-barrel projects—was really as ‘‘unique’’ as Cajun cooking or New Orleans jazz. Any temptations to see New Orleans as a ‘‘unique case,’’ in short, are in fact testable hypotheses— and they need to be tested. Based on the available evidence, it appears that— like the proverbial canary in the coal mine—New Orleans might provide useful early warnings for other cities where the vulnerabilities are less pronounced but are no less real. Ever since the dissertation research of Gilbert White (1945), studies have shown that, as the United States spends more on ‘‘flood protection’’ projects such as levees, flood damage costs continue to climb—even after controlling for inflation. Two key reasons are often identified. First, so-called flood protection projects often worsen actual flooding—by eliminating flood-absorbing wetlands, for example, reducing the floodplains across which high waters can spread, or preventing Mississippi River silt from rebuilding Louisiana wetlands. Second, the same projects often lead to misplaced confidence, with real estate speculators rushing to build new projects in areas that are theoretically ‘‘protected’’ by levees but actually vulnerable to floods. That pattern has now been shown to hold for more than half a century— and the costs of Katrina, now widely estimated to be well over $100 billion, guarantee that the same pattern will extend into the 21st century, as well. Still, after all these years, perhaps the time has come not just to notice this pattern, but to analyze it. It is at least remarkable—worthy of being remarked on—that justifications for environmentally and economically damaging projects would almost always be put forth in terms of asserted benefits for ‘‘jobs,’’ for ‘‘the economy,’’ and, more broadly, for nearly everyone except the growth machine’s primary beneficiaries. The pattern is particularly noteworthy in the many cases, such as this one, where claimed benefits for ‘‘the broader economy’’ prove to be effectively imaginary. Disproportionality and Disaster 511 In Katrina’s immediate aftermath, there was considerable concern about ‘‘looting’’—much of which, it is now clear, involved food, water, medicines, and other desperately needed supplies. Still, some looting did involve expensive luxuries such as plasma-screen televisions—which may or may not have seen much use in a city where some neighborhoods would not see the restoration of electricity for months or even years. Yet perhaps the most serious looting of all was done not by poor blacks, but by rich whites—by the privileged few who extracted vast sums from the U.S. Treasury, over a period of decades, through so-called development schemes that were not so much a response to the devastation of Katrina as one significant cause of it. As in the case of the Santa Barbara oil spill, to paraphrase Molotch, what came through the faulty floodwalls of New Orleans was not merely a vast quantity of contaminated floodwaters. It was evidence about what can happen when power, privilege, and pollution come together. The evidence shows that, at least in New Orleans, decisions that had long been described by local boosters as being ‘‘about’’ the region’s prosperity proved instead to have aided the prosperity of remarkably few economic actors—more or less on par with a string of bank robberies. Instead, they did grave damage to the region’s natural environment—as well as serious economic harm, and still more grave damage to many innocent bystanders—in ways that came back to haunt us all. In short, even if the environmental and human costs created by MRGO are calculated as having no value whatever—indeed, even if MRGO could be argued to have had nothing to do with the death and destruction in New Orleans—MRGO could qualify as having contributed to ‘‘capitalism’’ or to ‘‘economic development’’ only under extremely creative definitions of the terms. Perhaps the most concise such definition of economic development was offered informally, years ago, by MacNair (1999): ‘‘A set of policies and practices designed to take money from the bottom 95% of the population and redistribute it to the top 5%.’’ For the future, we need to be less quick to accept proponents’ claims, or for that matter a priori theoretical expectations, that environmentally damaging projects will be ‘‘good for the economy.’’ Rather than being accepted without question, such claims need to be treated as testable hypotheses. In the process, all of us who seek to understand social dynamics need to do a much better job of understanding just how such a ‘‘remarkable’’ political achievement could be pulled off so routinely. We owe it to our fields of study, we owe it to the memory of those who lost their lives in the wake of Katrina, and we owe it to the honor of those who fought successfully for their survival, as well. 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