2016 FEED-IN TARIFF ALLOWANCE RATE APPLICATION EXPOSITORY PRESENTATION Pasig, March 8, 2016 DINNA O. DIZON Head, FIT-All Team National Transmission Corporation OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION I. Background II. FIT-All Rate Determination III. Status Update 2 I. BACKGROUND 3 FIT-ELIGIBLE RE PLANTS as of February 24, 2016 Number Capacity for FIT (MW) Solar 6 68.08 Wind 7 426.9 Biomass 6 69.33 Run of River Hydro 3 25.93 TOTAL 22 590.24 Plant Type 4 RE PLANTS with RE Payment Agreement (REPA) as of February 24, 2016 Effective REPA Signed REPA* On Process** No. MW No. MW No. MW Solar 6 68.08 6 244.44 7 105.27 Wind 7 426.90 - - - - Biomass 6 69.33 6 70.1 - - Run of River Hydro 3 25.93 1 1.80 - - TOTAL 22*** 590.24 13 316.34 7 105.27 Plant Type *Includes REPA signed by both parties/being routed for signature of TransCo/those being notarized at TransCo **Includes REPA currently being signed by RE developer and applications for REPA with lacking documents *** Of the 22 REPAs, FIT billings for 20 REPAs have commenced 5 PAYMENT OF FIT REVENUES Total generation billed as of December 2015 Billing Period and FIT Differential balance as of 24 February 2016: RE TECHNOLOGY Wind Solar Biomass Hydro TOTAL ACTUAL ENERGY GENERATION BILLED (MWH) 635,296.68 92,188.58 92,271.80 48,878.44 868,635.51 FIT DIFFERENTIAL DUE, Pesos FIT DIFFERENTIAL BALANCE, Pesos 3,383,651,980.51 446,124,228.07 352,314,649.15 111,436,041.08 1,426,643,935.69 128,269,652.66 177,359,050.88 77,385,803.58 4,293,526,898.80 1,809,658,442.81 Note: ‘Actual Energy Generation Billed’ does not yet reflect energy generation in 2014/2015 1) That has not actually been billed (one at a time billing of backlog per REPA) 2) Of potentially FIT-eligible RE Plants that have not been granted/have just been granted FIT COC to date but have COD in 2014 or 2015. 6 2015 COLLECTION EFFICIENCY Actual as of February 24, 2016 FIT-ALL COLLECTION AGENTS PEMC (FOR THE ACRR) 94.62% 99.00% As Estimated in the 2016 FIT-All Application FIT-ALL COLLECTION AGENTS PEMC (FOR THE ACRR) 96.03% 99.27% 7 2015 COLLECTION AND DISBURSEMENT, Php FIT-ALL STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW As of February 24, 2016 Cash Receipts FIT-All Collection (March-2015 February 24, 2016) CRR Collection (June 2015- February 24, 2016) Interest on Deposits Total Disbursements Payment to RE Developers Payment of Interest Payment to LBP (Mar-November 2015) Total FIT-All Fund Balance, as of February 24, 2016 Balance of Payables to RE (with Billings) Total RE Claim (April 2015 - January 31, 2016) Total Payment to RE (May 2015 -Feb 24, 2016) Unpaid RE Claim as of February 24, 2016 2,543,383,229.12 1,226,769,683.13 289,541.58 3,770,442,453.83 3,710,846,715.95 610,003.78 520,000.00 3,711,976,719.73 58,465,734.10 5,532,710,608.86 3,710,846,715.95 1,821,863,892.92 8 II. 2016 FIT-All Rate Determination Note: Calculations made were based on actual billing data as of August 2015 9 BASIS Guidelines on the Collection of the Feedin Tariff Allowance (FIT-All) and the Disbursement of the FIT-All Fund (“FIT-All Guidelines”) 10 ASSUMPTIONS a. No degression of the FIT Rates for 2016 but with adjustments due to inflation and forex; Solar FIT 2 and Wind FIT 2 were used b. Line-up of plants are for computation purposes only; does not automatically entitle listed plants to FIT nor payment thereof c. As a rule, projected generation forecast provided by RE were used (if provided), otherwise DOE forecasts were used; or, if RE projections were perceived to be too high, then DOE forecasts were used d. Actual energy generation levels of operational RE Plants that were available were considered 11 ASSUMPTIONS e. Solar projects considered only until March 15, 2016 per DOE list (with due consideration to the indivisibility of projects) f. For Wind, Bangui 1 & 2 (existing before the RE Law) were included in the line-up at a FIT Rate of P5.76/kWh g. 2014-2015 under-recoveries were included in the determination of the 2016 FIT-All h. NREB recommended formula for Factor Rate from the 2014-2015 FIT-All application was used in the computation of WCA, with updated input data 12 I. Data Sources a. List of Projected FIT Eligible RE Developers and Capacities/Generation Forecast (DOE) b. Actual and Projected Generation from RE Developers c. Forecast National Sales (DOE) d. Approved FIT Rates (ERC) e. CPI and FOREX (BSP website) f. Market Price and Blended Generation Cost (PEMC/DASURECO/kuryente.org) g. Factor Rate in the Computation of WCA (NREB formula) h. Collection Efficiency in the Computation of WCA (actual collection efficiency of FIT-All Fund Collection Agents) 13 PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE RE CAPACITIES & INSTALLATION TARGETS 2015 BIOMASS EXISTING NEW HYDROPOWER EXISTING NEW SOLAR NEW WIND EXISTING NEW TOTAL EXISTING NEW No. of Plants 15 6 9 5 2 3 11 11 7 1 6 38 9 29 Installed Capacity, 153.196 60.926 92.27 35.73 5.6 30.13 161.9 161.9 426.9 33 393.9 777.726 99.526 678.2 2016 No. of Plants 16 6 10 12 2 10 22 22 7 1 6 57 9 48 Installed Capacity, 160.49 60.926 99.564 59.98 5.6 54.38 523.02 523.02 426.9 33 393.9 1170.39 99.526 1070.864 Installation Targets 250 250 500 400 1400 14 PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016 15 PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016 16 PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016 17 PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016 FIT-ALL FORMULA FIT DIFFERENTIAL (FD) FIT ALL RATE, P/kWh WORKING CAPITAL ALLOWANCE (WCA) ADMINISTRATION ALLOWANCE (AA) DISBURSEMENT ALLOWANCE (DA) FORECAST NATIONAL SALES (FNS) FD + WCA + AA + DA FIT All (𝑃 𝑘𝑊ℎ) = FNS 19 FORECAST ANNUAL NATIONAL SALES 𝐶𝐴𝐺𝑅𝑡𝑜,𝑡𝑛 = 𝑉𝑡𝑛 𝑉𝑡𝑜 1 𝑡𝑛−𝑡𝑜 −1 ACTUAL ELECTRICITY SALES, kWh 2013 2014 Luzon Visayas Mindanao 2012 44,063,677,000 7,646,701,000 7,500,241,000 45,803,175,000 7,867,617,000 7,894,820,000 47,240,505,000 8,039,020,000 8,065,259,000 Sales, kWh Growth Rate 59,210,619,000 5.19 61,565,612,000 3.66 63,344,784,000 4.13 FORECAST ELECTRICITY SALES, kWh 2015 65,962,899,825 3.67 2016 68,380,633,362 3.56 20 FIT DIFFERENTIAL FIT DIFFERENTIAL TOTAL FIT REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x FIT Rate FORECAST COST RECOVERY REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x CRR Rate (OVER)/UNDER RECOVERY DATA NEEDED SOURCE FIT Eligible RE Actual/Forecast Annual Generation 20142016 DOE/RE FIT Rate ERC CRR Rate Luzon & Visayas (LWAP) Mindanao (Blended Rate of Host DU) PEMC DASURECO ZAMCELCO, MAGELCO, BUSECO. MORESCO II, SOCOTECO II ERC Decision on 20142015 FIT-All Application www.kuryente.org 21 FORECAST ANNUAL GENERATION, MWH Technology Biomass Hydropower Solar Wind Total 2014-2015 2016 2017 309,839 682,407 761,454 108,271 158,580 875,169 1,451,859 - 187,342 632,686 977,205 2,479,639 - 492,222 707,963 977,477 2,939,116 - 22 ADJUSTED FIT RATE, Php/kWh 2015 Base FIT Rate Biomass Hydro Solar FIT 1 FIT 2 Wind FIT 1 FIT 2 6.6300 5.9000 2016 Adjusted FIT-Rate 2014-2015 Entrant 2016 Entrant 7.0508 7.0508 6.4601 6.4601 9.6800 8.6900 9.9067 8.6900 8.5300 7.4000 8.9006 7.4000 Average Forex (Jul2014-June2015) Average CPI(Jul2014-June2015) 8.6900 44.4187 140.9500 23 FORECAST COST RECOVERY RATE (WESM) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Month Aug.2015 Jul.2015 Jun.2015 May.2015 Apr.2015 Mar.2015 Feb.2015 Jan.2015 Dec.2014 Nov.2014 Oct.2014 Sept.2014 Aug.2014 Jul.2014 Jun.2014 May.2014 Apr.2014 Mar.2014 LWAP, Pesos per MWhLWAP, Pesos per KWh Luzon Visayas Luzon Visayas 3,691.00 3,953.00 3.6910 3.9530 4,518.00 4,186.00 4.5180 4.1860 6,322.00 6,864.00 6.3220 6.8640 4,457.00 4,839.00 4.4570 4.8390 2,810.00 2,905.00 2.8100 2.9050 5,075.00 5,337.00 5.0750 5.3370 5,079.00 5,225.00 5.0790 5.2250 3,367.00 3,477.00 3.3670 3.4770 2,068.00 2,812.00 2.0680 2.8120 3,253.00 3,874.00 3.2530 3.8740 3,539.00 1,706.00 3.5390 1.7060 5,544.00 (528.00) 5.5440 (0.5280) 5,694.00 4,571.00 5.6940 4.5710 8,104.00 7,745.00 8.1040 7.7450 6,443.00 6,730.00 6.4430 6.7300 6,642.33 7,220.01 6.6423 7.2200 9,950.57 6,377.21 9.9506 6.3772 6,788.21 6.7882 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Month Feb.2014 Jan.2014 Dec.2013 Nov.2013 Oct.2013 Sept.2013 Aug.2013 Jul.2013 Jun.2013 May.2013 Apr.2013 Mar.2013 Feb.2013 Jan.2013 Dec.2012 Nov.2012 Oct.2012 Sept.2012 Average LWAP, Pesos per MWh LWAP, Pesos per KWh Luzon Visayas Luzon Visayas 2,487.60 2.4876 2,308.88 2.3089 18,193.89 18.1939 16,122.20 3,181.91 16.1222 3.1819 6,641.10 6,319.51 6.6411 6.3195 2,678.01 3,027.90 2.6780 3.0279 3,202.23 2,949.65 3.2022 2.9497 2,864.93 2,876.17 2.8649 2.8762 4,309.76 4,054.88 4.3098 4.0549 6,023.34 6,014.31 6.0233 6.0143 6,993.49 7,158.28 6.9935 7.1583 4,889.87 4,226.06 4.8899 4.2261 2,791.71 2,626.82 2.7917 2.6268 3,038.42 3,248.66 3.0384 3.2487 6,106.52 6,157.75 6.1065 6.1578 5,393.59 5,495.79 5.3936 5.4958 6,408.79 5,555.74 6.4088 5.5557 4,301.10 4,704.07 4.3011 4.7041 5,502.7928 4,527.8350 5.5028 4.5278 24 HOST DUs BLENDED GENERATION COST Dasureco Month 4.7592 Zamcelco Month 3.9706 Jul-14 Mar-13 Aug-14 Apr-13 Sep-14 May-13 3.7733 4.0039 3.6946 4.1716 4.0879 3.4498 4.0745 4.4505 4.2953 3.8422 3.8280 3.9756 Oct-14 Bsed on ERC Nov-14 Decision Dec-14 dated Jan-15 Sept 29, Feb-15 2015 Mar-15 (page 44) Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Apr-15 Dec-13 May-15 Jan-14 Jun-15 Feb-14 For Mindanao Magelco Buseco Month Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 2.7801 Month 3.7339 2.9111 2.9252 2.9397 2.9602 2.6801 2.6528 2.5975 2.5852 2.6471 2.5929 2.9262 2.9437 Mar-14 3.9461 3.8874 3.9548 3.7615 3.5164 3.1716 3.2394 3.6330 3.6700 3.5871 3.1864 5.2533 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Moresco II Month Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Mar-12 Feb-12 Socoteco II 3.3684 Month 4.7054 5.4322 5.2457 2.7676 2.8466 2.7133 3.1204 3.0294 3.0684 3.0450 3.0718 2.9806 3.1000 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 5.5771 5.6809 4.9506 4.4668 4.0333 4.4126 4.6436 4.9149 5.0902 4.6593 3.6858 4.3502 25 FIT DIFFERENTIAL (UNDER-RECOVERY) FIT DIFFERENTIAL TOTAL FIT REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x FIT Rate FORECAST COST RECOVERY REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x CRR Rate (OVER)/UNDER RECOVERY Forecast FD Payables for 2015 4,295,483,186.44 Actual FD Payment (As of Oct 5, 2015) 1,345,372,909.88 Forecast Balance as of Oct 5, 2015 2,950,110,276.56 Estimated FD Payment (Oct 6, 2015-Feb, 2016) 1,114,202,382.48 Estimated (Over) Under Recoveries for 2015 1,835,907,894.08 FD Under Recoveries, P/kWh 0.0268 26 FIT DIFFERENTIAL FIT DIFFERENTIAL TOTAL FIT REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x FIT Rate FIT Revenue Less Forecast Cost Recovery Revenue 2016 FIT Differential Add: 2015 FD (Over)Under Recoveries FIT Differential Requirement FIT Differential P/kWh FORECAST COST RECOVERY REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x CRR Rate (OVER)/UNDER RECOVERY 2016 19,676,565,718.08 12,750,781,279.58 6,925,784,438.51 1,835,907,894.08 8,761,692,332.59 0.1281 27 WORKING CAPITAL ALLOWANCE WCA t+1 Forecast Annual Payout t+2 DATA NEEDED Factor Rate WCA Ending Balancet SOURCE Forecast Annual Payoutt+2 As computed Factor Rate NREB formula 28 2017 FORECAST ANNUAL PAYOUT, PHP Particulars Forecast Cost Recovery Revenue FIT Differential Administration Allowance Disbursement Allowance Total Annual Payout 2017 14,803,839,476 8,057,232,521 1,054,100 22,862,126,096 29 FACTOR RATE FORMULA (As Recommended by NREB) CRRWESM Factor Rate Total Annual Payout Factor RateWESM COMPONENTS FD,AA,DA, CRRNonWESM Total Annual Payout Factor RateFIT All DATA SOURCE Cost Recovery Revenue-WESM As computed Total Annual Payout As computed Factor RateWESM Collection Efficiency (Actual) 1- PEMC Collection Efficiency FD,AA,DA, CRRNon-WESM Factor RateFIT-All 𝟏 𝟏𝟐 As computed Collection Efficiency (Actual) +(𝟏−𝑪𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑬𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚𝑬𝑪,𝑫𝑼,𝑵𝑮𝑪𝑷 ) 𝑪𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑬𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚𝑬𝑪,𝑫𝑼,𝑵𝑮𝑪𝑷 30 FACTOR RATE Factor Rate FD,AA,DA, CRRNon- CRRWESM Factor RateWESM Total Annual Payout Factor RateFIT All WESM Total Annual Payout CRRWESM FD,AA, DA, CRRNonWESM Annual Payout 13,405,891,346 9,456,234,750 Divided By: Total Annual Payout 22,862,126,096 22,862,126,096 0.5864 0.4136 X Factor Rate 0.73% 12.30% Weighted Factor Rate 0.43% 5.09% Ratio Effective Factor Rate 5.5145% *per NREB Resolution No. 3 Series of 2014 31 WCA ENDING BALANCE COMPUTATION, Php Forecast CRR Receivable (Sept 2015-Dec 2015) 3,837,875,248.49 Expected CRR Collection (99.27% Collection Efficiency) 3,810,015,943.94 Estimated Uncollected CRR Add: 2015 Disbursement Allowance WCA Deficiency 27,859,304.54 739,990.00 28,599,294.54 32 WORKING CAPITAL ALLOWANCE (WCA) PhP WCA t+1 Forecast Annual Payout t+2 Technology Forecast Annual Payout x Factor Rate Equals: Portion of Annual Payout Less: WCA Ending Balance (Year n) Working Capital Allowance WCA P/kWh Factor Rate 2016 19,677,619,818 5.5145% 1,085,129,553 WCA Ending Balancet 2017 22,862,126,096 5.5145% 1,260,740,318 (28,599,295) 1,289,339,613 0.0189 33 ADMINISTRATION ALLOWANCE (AA) TransCo proposes an Administration Allowance of zero (0). 34 DISBURSEMENT ALLOWANCE, PhP ANNUAL TRUST FEE 720,000.00 BSP Supervision Fee (1/28 of 1%) of Asset Under Management 281,599.95 ONCOL FEE Php 40.00/ transaction (free 180 transactions) DISBURSEMENT ALLOWANCE, Php DISBURSEMENT ALLOWANCE, Php/KWh 52,500.00 1,054,099.95 0.00002 35 SUMMARY OF 2016 FIT ALL RATE APPLICATION FIT ALL RATE, P/kWh FD COMPONENTS FD WCA AA DA Total FNS, kWh FIT-All, Php/kWh WCA AA DA FNS Amount (Php) Rate (P/kWh) Share 8,761,692,333 0.1281 87.16% 1,289,339,613 0.0189 12.83% 0.0000 0.00% 1,054,100 0.0000 0.01% 10,052,086,045 68,380,633,362 0.1470 36 2016 FIT-ALL RATE BUILD-UP, Php/kWh Increase from 2014-2015 Application 2014-2015 Approved FIT-All Rate SOURCES OF INCREASE (DECREASE) 1. Change In Energy Sales (Denominator) 2. Change in Energy Generation FIT Differential WCA 3. Change in FIT Rate/ACRR FIT Differential WCA 4. Change in Factor Rate WCA 5. Inclusion of Administrative Allowance Administrative Allowance DA Effect on WCA 6. Inclusion of Disbursement Allowance Disbursement Allowance DA Effect on WCA 7. WCA, Ending Balance 8. FIT Differential Underrecoveries NET INCREASE (DECREASE) 2016 FIT-All Rate Build-Up 0.0406 Pesos 1,080,780,822.65 4,386,951,533.72 3,676,324,470.08 710,627,063.64 231,544,904.42 247,120,185.13 (15,575,280.70) (286,704,903.71) (286,704,903.71) 1,112,228.68 1,054,099.95 58,128.73 28,599,294.54 Pesos/kWh 0.0158 0.0642 0.0538 0.0104 0.0034 0.0036 (0.0002) (0.0042) (0.0042) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0564 0.1205 1,835,907,894.08 0.0268 0.1470 5,700,389,489.47 0.1064 0.1239 0.1197 0.1197 0.1197 0.1202 37 ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS: RE PLANT STATUS as of October 2015 Plant Type WITH FIT WITH WITH PAYMENT COC/EFFECTIVE WITH COE FROM NOMINATION AS OF OCT. 5 P.D. REPA BUT NOT DOE FROM DOE YET BEING PAID No. MW SOLAR 6 68.08 WIND 3 249.90 2 BIOMASS 2 20.19 HYDRO 1 12 TOTAL No. MW No. MW 2 33.00 1 8.13 346.30 No. No. MW 64.30 8 132.38 3 144.00 7 426.90 22.64 5 45.10 11 119.93 1 14.00 2 5.60 4 27.73 4 69.64 12 259.00 30 706.94 2 2 MW TOTAL 32 32 38 INCREMENTAL MOVEMENT OF THE 2016 FIT-ALL FOR DIFFERENT RE PLANT/PROJECT CATEGORIES MW MWH With With FIT COC Payment Increase/ As of Total (Decrease) October 5, 345.92 69.64 415.56 807,951 172,651 980,602 With COE With Nomination Others in the DOE List Increase/ (Decrease) Total Increase/ (Decrease) Total Increase/ (Decrease) Total 259.00 626,073 674.56 1,606,675 32.00 153,032 706.56 1,759,707 463.84 719,933 1,170.39 2,479,639 0.0883 0.0095 0.0000 0.0000 0.0042 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0925 0.0100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0356 0.0089 0.0000 0.0000 0.1281 0.0189 0.0000 0.0000 0.0978 0.0047 0.1025 0.0445 0.1470 FIT-ALL Rate, P/kWh FD 0.0508 0.0034 0.0543 0.0341 WCA 0.0058 0.0004 0.0062 0.0032 AA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 DA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 FIT-ALL 0.0566 0.0038 0.0605 0.0373 Rate, FIT COC- Certificate of Compliance Issued by the ERC COE-Certificate of Endorsement issued by the DOE Nomination-Issued by the COE 39 FIT-ALL APPLICATION-PRAYER a. To grant Provisional Authority to collect the FIT-All of PhP/kWh 0.1025 effective January 2016 billing period b. To direct Collection Agents such as DUs, RES and NGCP to bill, collect and remit the FIT-All to the FIT-All Fund as provided in the FIT-All Guidelines c. To direct PEMC and Host DUs to remit the CRR to the FIT-All Fund as provided in the FIT-All Guidelines d. To approve the Factor Rate resulting from an updating of inputs in the recommended formula by the NREB under the 2014-2015 FIT-All Application and adopt the same in the computation of the WCA and the FIT-All Rate for 2016 e. To approve the FIT-All Rate for 2016 as applied after due notice and hearing, OR IN THE ALTERNATIVE, such other amount as may be found by the ERC to be consistent with the FIT-All Guidelines and on the basis of new and updated information not available at the time of filing f. To waive the payment of ERC supervision fees, if any 40 III. STATUS UPDATE 41 RE PLANT STATUS as of March 7, 2016 Plant Type WITH PAYMENT AS OF MARCH 5 P.D. No. MW WITH FIT WITH COC/EFFECTIVE WITH COE FROM NOMINATION REPA BUT NOT DOE FROM DOE YET BEING PAID No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW 92 10 301 20 461 7 427 SOLAR 6 68 WIND 5 358 2 69 BIOMASS 5 56 1 14 5 56 2 15 13 140 HYDRO 2 22 1 4 1 2 1 8 5 36 18 504 4 87 10 149 13 323 45 1,063 TOTAL 4 TOTAL 42 END OF PRESENTATION Thank you.
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