TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2006
Business Insurance
DAILY CONFERENCE NEWS 2006 PCI ANNUAL MEETING
INDUSTRY NEWS
‘DESPITE OUR current
Best study shows
strength in sector
good fortune, I could
make a strong case that
we are still standing
near the edge of
the cliff.’
St. Paul Travelers
settles derivative suit
ST. PAUL, Minn.—St. Paul Travelers Cos. Inc. has agreed to
adopt “certain corporate governance measures” to settle a
consolidated derivative lawsuit
against the company over
alleged improper business practices, the insurer said in a Securities and Exchange Commission
filing. The suit, brought against
the company’s current directors
and certain former directors,
asserts state law claims including breach of fiduciary duty in
connection with the insurer’s
alleged failure to disclose contingent commission payments
to agents and brokers, its
See INDUSTRY NEWS/page 6
By Meg Fletcher
T
Julian James, Lloyd’s of London’s director of worldwide markets, told
meeting attendees that the industry still faces tough challenges.
P/C industry warned:
Major threats remain
By Meg Fletcher
SEATTLE—Despite improved financial results, insurers still need to
address serious financial, reputational and operational challenges, a
Lloyd’s of London executive warns.
Julian James, Lloyd’s Londonbased director of worldwide
markets, said Monday in
remarks to the annual meeting of the Property Casualty
Insurers Assn. of America
that “despite our current
good fortune, I could make a strong
case that we are still standing near
the edge of the cliff,” much as he
had predicted four years earlier
when he last addressed the PCI in
the year following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. “Unlike in 2002, we
just don’t realize it.”
The industry has passed a key
financial test in dealing with mas-
INSIDE
sive 2005 cat losses, he said. In
addition, U.S. profits this year are
forecast to be the best in a generation at $55 billion to $60 billion.
Yet, “we are in grave danger of
eroding the progress that we have
made,” Mr. James said.
The industry’s financial challenge is to “stay out of the
intensive care ward,” he said.
Four years ago, the industry
was even worse off than that,
though—“on life support,”
Mr. James said.
Today’s situation is dramatically
different than that of four years
ago, he said. “If the remarkable
underwriting performance of the
first half carries through to year’s
end, the U.S. property/casualty
industry could have its best underwriting results in 51 years—beating
See JAMES/page 6
he possibility that a Democratic majority may be elected in one or both houses of
Congress today—and the potential
impact on insurance industry companies—is a hot topic at this year’s
Property Casualty Insurers Assn.
of America annual meeting in Seattle.
“I think our members will be
anxious to hear from us what
changes will mean for us as an
advocacy organization and how we
plan to change our strategy both in
the states and Washington,” said
June Holmes, PCI’s interim chief
executive officer.
“I think most pundits are predicting that a House takeover is
likely, a Senate takeover is unlikely, although both are possible,” said
Ben McKay, PCI’s senior vp for fedSee PRIORITIES/page 6
UPI/LANDOV
Despite record hurricane losses
in 2005, the U.S. property/casualty industry has remained
financially strong over the past
year, and rating upgrades outpaced downgrades for the first
time since 2000, according to a
report by A.M. Best Co. Inc.
However, Best said it is concerned about the sustainability
of the industry’s financial
strength in light of rising surplus levels, pricing deterioration
and increased competition.
Between July 2005 and July
2006, Best upgraded the ratings of 39 companies while
downgrading only 20, according
to the report, “Underwriting Discipline Continues; Rating
Upgrades Outpace Downgrades.” Best also found that
industry surplus increased 2.7%
during the first six months of
2006, following an approximate
7.8% increase from year-end
2004 through year-end 2005,
due in part to favorable underwriting results.
PCI prepares
strategy for
any changes
on Capitol Hill
With a Democratic majority in the
House, Rep. John Conyers likely
would chair the judiciary panel.
WORLD OF CHANGE
IN THE MONEY
THREE QUESTIONS
DUELING PUNDITS
Journalist sees major
shift in global economy.
Six-month P/C results
fuel optimism.
Aon Re’s Bryon Ehrhart
on market trends.
Novak, Carlson trade
views on the election.
PAGE 3
PAGE 3
Entire contents copyright by Crain Communications Inc. All rights reserved.
PAGE 4
PAGE 4
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2006
1
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IndustryFocus
Osborne named
S&P practice head
NEW YORK—Standard & Poor’s Corp.
has named Grace Osborne leader of
the firm’s North America Insurance
Practice.
Ms. Osborne succeeds Steve
Dreyer, who was named U.S. practice leader for utilities and project
finance within New York-based
S&P’s Industrial Ratings Group.
Ms. Osborne, a managing director, most recently led S&P’s
advanced analytics team, which
performs tailored capital analysis
and rates funding
agreement-backed
notes for institutional and retail
markets, catastrophe bonds and
insurance-related
securitizations.
She also was
Ms. Osborne
the chairperson of
S&P’s Americas Insurance Criteria
Committee, which oversees development and implementation of ratings criteria for the insurance sectors in the United States, Canada,
Mexico and Bermuda.
A certified public accountant,
Ms. Osborne was accounting coordinator for S&P’s North American
insurance sector, with responsibilities including identifying accounting issues in the ratings process.
Rodney Clark, an S&P director,
will succeed Ms. Osborne as leader
of S&P’s Advanced Analytics team.
He previously was an analyst for life
insurers, life reinsurers and insurance-related securitizations. IF
DAILY CONFERENCE NEWS 2006 PCI ANNUAL MEETING
Journalist Fareed
Zakaria spoke of global
trends to PCI meeting
attendees Monday.
Global economic shift
demands recognition
By Rodd Zolkos
SEATTLE—An apparent disconnect
between the existing geopolitical
climate and the current global economic picture is, in one prominent journalist’s view, one of the
most striking characteristics of the
world today.
Speaking Monday morning to
attendees at the 2006 annual meeting of the Property Casualty Insurers Assn. of America, Fareed Zakaria,
editor of Newsweek International
and an ABC News analyst, said he’s
constantly struck by “what a
strange world we’re living in.”
To illustrate his point, Mr.
Zakaria noted that in the past five
years the global economy has
grown at a faster rate than in any
similar period in recorded history,
despite the “dot com” crash, the
Sept. 11 attack, U.S. involvement
in “two wars that are going badly”
Against that backdrop, “political
risk is diminishing very rapidly,”
he said. “I don’t think it’s dead. I
think this may be a phase we’re in.”
“You can see this very clearly in
the fact that the risk premium on
emerging market bonds has essentially collapsed,” Mr. Zakaria said.
For example, he said, the current
risk premium on Brazilian bonds
is essentially the same as that on
U.S. bonds.
While there’s a disconnect now
between political risk and the
global economy, eventually political risk will have an economic
impact, Mr. Zakaria cautioned.
In response, it’s essential that
U.S. officials recognize the global
nature of today’s world, he said.
“Every solution is trans-national,”
Mr. Zakaria said. “There’s nothing
you can do in one place anymore.”
The U.S. needs greater and more
sustained dealings with emerging
economic powerhouses such as
China, India and Russia, he said,
looking for ways to work with
them to construct systems that
will respond to future global issues
from economic and political crises
‘EVERY SOLUTION IS trans-national. There’s
nothing you can do in one place anymore.’
FAREED ZAKARIA
and a significant downturn in the
U.S. housing market.
Mr. Zakaria attributed that disconnect to a “seismic shift in the
global economy” that sees emerging market nations taking on
growing significance in the world
business scene.
to natural catastrophes such as a
flu pandemic.
“Otherwise my fear is that the
political system will continue to go
awry and one day we will wake up
and realize that our global economy
did rest on a certain stability,” Mr.
Zakaria said. IF
First-half results bode well for year
By Meg Fletcher
P
IN FOCUS: SPACE NEEDLE
OPENED: 1962 as part of World’s Fair
HEIGHT: 605 feet
NUMBER OF STEPS TO OBSERVATION DECK: 848
TRAVEL TIME BY ELEVATOR: 43 seconds
MAX. WIND TOWER CAN WITHSTAND: 200 mph
ANNUAL VISITORS: More than 1 million
Source: Space Needle Corp.
roperty/casualty insurers’
financial returns in the firsthalf of 2006 are prompting
predictions of a bright year-end,
but only if insurers can manage
cyclical swings in premium
growth, underwriting performance and, ultimately, profits,
observers say.
In this year’s first six months,
the industry reported an annualized statutory rate of return on
average surplus of 13%, according
to results released by the Property
Casualty Insurers Assn. of America
in Des Plaines, Ill., and the Insurance Services Office Inc. in Jersey
City, N.J.
Such profits would lead to
insurers’ “best financial performance in nearly 20 years,” Robert
P. Hartwig, executive vp and chief
economist for the New York-based
Insurance Information Institute,
said in a statement.
The industry’s underlying
underwriting
results
“were
superb,” with a first-half combined ratio of just 92% and “the
best results since ISO began
recording quarterly figures in
1986,” Mr. Hartwig said.
Insurers’ underwriting results
for first-half 2006 “were very
solid,” Genio Staranczak, PCI’s
chief economist said in a statement.
Compared with the same period last year, however, there was a
$2.9 billion—or 9.3%—decrease in
net income and a $12.3 billion—or
20%—rise in federal taxes, Mr.
Hartwig said. The “major disappointment of the quarter and the
principal reason for the decline in
first-half profitability was deterioration in investment performance
resulting in a 9.3% drop in total
investment gain,” he said. IF
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2006
3
IndustryFocus
threequestions
THE SIGHTS
Past and present
meet in lively area
Bryon Ehrhart
Aon Re Services Inc.
By Rodd Zolkos
T
he city’s original downtown, Pioneer Square, covers an area of
about 20 blocks between Seattle’s
downtown and its new stadiums.
Most of the century-old buildings
in the area have their roots in Seattle’s history as the principal staging
area for those heading to the Yukon
during the Alaskan Gold Rush.
Today the area is said to boast the
country’s largest concentration of
Victorian-Romanesque architecture.
In the evenings the area is one of
the city’s prime entertainment districts with its various taverns and
dining spots. In the heart of Pioneer
Square in Occidental Park, the
area’s history can be traced through
the “Heritage Panels” that are part
of a historic glass pergola.
Popular with many visitors, the
area’s Underground Tour visits
sunken storefronts that were at
ground level in Pioneer Square
before Seattle’s Great Fire of 1889.
Following the fire, city officials
chose to raise the street level, leaving the storefronts of many buildings with their front doors in the
basement.
DAILY CONFERENCE NEWS 2006 PCI ANNUAL MEETING
Just as important as the formal program at the annual conference of the
Property Casualty Insurers Assn. of
America are the discussions of reinsurance programs that go on during
the conference among insurers, intermediaries and reinsurers. With that
in mind, Bryon Ehrhart, president
and chief executive officer of Chicago-based Aon Re Services Inc., took
some time recently to discuss some of
the key issues facing the reinsurance
markets as Jan. 1 renewals approach.
Could you provide an overview of
the current reinsurance market?
Are there any particular trouble
spots in capacity or pricing?
I
think that you’re hearing a call
by reinsurers at Monte Carlo,
Baden Baden and Greenbrier for
renewal rates that will be brought
up to the level of July 1. Our
point of view is, that is very
unlikely to happen. I think
that some of the early talk of
1/1 renewals getting to the
same point as 7/1 is unlikely
to happen, partly because of
the capacity you have at 1/1
but also because much of the
business that renews at 1/1 is
a different type of business
than renews at 7/1.
Capacity is up just from
profits alone 20% to 25%.
Plus, there will be some $3 billion
to $6 billion of new sidecar
money that will be there. And
we’ll see one if not two new vehicles that will be there that are not
sidecars.
For buyers, that is obviously
very good news. We think for PCI
attendees, what this means is the
return of a functioning reinsurance market. Obviously this is all
contingent on nothing happening
before Dec. 31.
Going into Jan. 1 renewals,
there’s no clear indication of how
the TRIA situation will be
resolved beyond the current
extension’s Dec. 31, 2007, sunset, or whether a permanent program will be enacted. What
impact is that uncertainty having
on ceding companies?
I
think that realistically most people are counting on no renewal.
I’m not saying that’s what they
wish for—I’m saying that’s what
they’re counting on. I think the
conventional wisdom is that last
year if we had not had Katrina, we
would not have had renewal. So I
think clients—insurers—are focusing on how they’re going to
underwrite business without TRIA,
and I think what that means is
that things are going to be more
restrictive for buyers.
You’re going to see sublimits if
there’s any coverage. You’re not
going to see the full limits of the
policy exposed to terrorism in any
area where anyone thinks there is
a major risk of terrorism.
Looking forward, are there any
emerging areas of concern or
potential trouble spots you see in
the year ahead?
T
he fear I have is that you have
many people avoiding the
coast at the moment and driving
their business inland or into casualty lines. And so some of the
softness you might be seeing in
some of those areas or lines as a
result of that avoidance may be
below what the fundamentals
would tell you should be the pricing for some of those lines. IF
Columnists spar over election outcome
By Meg Fletcher
Pioneer Square Facts
■ When it was completed in 1914,
Smith Tower was the tallest building
west of the Mississippi.
■ The Triangle Hotel was said to be
the smallest hotel on the West Coast
when it opened in 1909 with just
eight rooms.
■ Pioneer Square is roughly bound-
ed by Yesler Way on the north and
South King on the south, and 4th
Avenue South on the east and
Alaskan Way on the west.
4
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2006
SEATTLE—-Meeting attendees
enjoyed words of wit and
wisdom from opposite ends
of the ideological spectrum
Monday as columnists
Robert Novak and Margaret
Carlson squared off in a
Mr. Novak
Ms. Carlson
debate about the elections.
Ms. Carlson, who said she
registered as an independent at the will vote Democratic because they
request of her employer, Time Mag- are frustrated about the situation in
azine, said she believes the votes of Iraq. Mr. Novak, however, dismissed
independents will determine which criticism of the administration’s
party makes greater gains in today’s approach in Iraq, noting that “all
elections. Many such voters, she said, wars you don’t win are unpopular.”
The Democrats are nationalizing the election and may
gain control of the House of
Representatives, but they
won’t get a large margin, he
said.
The roomful of attendees
expressed their disapproval
of negative political ads, in
response to a question by
moderator Joe Annotti, PCI’s
senior vp-public affairs.
Mr. Novak, however, described
the ads’ critics as “naïve,” saying
that such ads are traditional and are
less damaging than the pistol duels
of the past. IF
Don’t settle for a broker.
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than a genuine alter ego, a passionate
defender of your interests, isn’t nearly good
enough. Not in our opinion.
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behind every step we take. Our commitment
to excellence demands nothing less. Neither
should you.
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Benfield. Unquestionably in your corner.
www.benfieldgroup.com
IndustryFocus
INDUSTRY NEWS
continued from page 1
alleged involvement in a conspiracy to rig bids, and its alleged
improper use of finite reinsurance products, the insurer said.
St. Paul Travelers did not elaborate in the SEC document about
what corporate governance
measures it would adopt, and a
spokeswoman declined to comment further. In August, the
insurer agreed to pay $77 million to settle similar charges of
improper business practices
from attorneys general in Connecticut, Illinois and New York.
P/C rates down 9%,
MarketScout finds
Property/casualty insurance
rates dropped by an average of
9% in October compared with
levels of a year earlier, according to Dallas-based insurance
exchange MarketScout. The
largest drops were experienced
in general liability (9%) and
workers compensation (9%),
but even commercial property
dropped 2%. In general, larger
accounts experienced greater
proportional decreases than
smaller ones. “As predicted, the
absence of hurricane activity
has extended the soft market,”
Richard Kerr, chief executive
officer of MarketScout, said in a
commentary on the findings.
Industry Focus
PCI coverage
available online
Business
Insurance’s
Industry
Focus is
offering
electronic
versions of
its daily conference
news from the Property Casualty Insurers Assn. of America’s
annual meeting in Seattle. To
share conference news with colleagues, or to revisit information after the PCI meeting, visit
www.IndustryFocus.com.
The coverage, published Nov.
6-8, includes IF’s PCI conference daily in PDF form.
6
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2006
DAILY CONFERENCE NEWS 2006 PCI ANNUAL MEETING
James
Continued from page 1
the 94.9% combined ratio recorded in 1955,” Mr. James said.
“But if you look at long-term
industry performance, it’s not pretty,” he said. The industry has
achieved an underwriting profit in
only three years—1977, 1978 and
2004—over the last three decades.
The early warning signs of the
challenges ahead are there—weak
premium growth, decreasing rates
in most noncatastrophe areas and
rising policyholder surplus. “It all
adds up to a picture of stagnant
demand and over-supply,” he said.
If that’s not bad enough, it is coupled with external factors including a slowing U.S. economy, rising
claims costs and regulatory intervention, which is preventing insurers from charging risk-based rates,
especially in disaster-prone areas.
If the industry is to build on the
progress it has made, according to
Mr. James, companies must adhere
to four “basic rules of business:”
■ Don’t write for market share;
■ Focus relentlessly on delivering a gross underwriting profit;
■ Recognize that terms and conditions are just as important as
price;
■ Stick to the business you know
and understand how to price.
The insurance industry also must
respond to the reputational challenge caused by “a growing vilification of insurers” by challenging
“the popular notion that profit is a
dirty word,” Mr. James said.
“Quite simply, we must do a better job of explaining to policyholders, regulators and other key stakeholders how a solvent global insurance industry underpins the U.S.
and world economy,” he said.
Insurers also must respond to the
behavioral challenge posed by glob-
‘IF YOU LOOK at longterm industry performance, it’s not pretty.’
JULIAN JAMES
LLOYD’S OF LONDON
alization. Protectionist laws must be
eliminated, Mr. James said, especially in U.S. reinsurance regulation.
As he did in 2002, Mr. James concluded his remarks by saying, “Our
thinking and behavior must change
if the insurance industry is to be a
stable, secure industry for our policyholders and shareholders of the
future.” IF
Priorities
Continued from page 1
eral government affairs.
If the Democrats take over the
House, Rep. Barney Frank, DMass., will likely lead the House
Financial Services Committee,
Mr. McKay said. While Rep.
Frank has said he plans to continue the bipartisan efforts of
the former committee chairman, he sees housing issues as a
priority, Mr. McKay said.
Mr. McKay said continuing
the federal terrorism backstop—
set to expire Dec. 31, 2007—
would likely be addressed early
and pushed by Rep. Frank and
fellow committee member Rep.
Paul E. Kanjorski, D-Pa.
In a Democratic majority,
Rep. John Conyers Jr., D-Mich.,
would likely assume chairmanship of the House Judiciary
Committee, and he may raise
discussion of the McCarran-Ferguson Act, Mr. McKay said.
A Democratic majority would
probably mean new language
from Rep. Kanjorski for some
elements of the proposed State
Modernization and Regulatory
Transparency Act regulatory
reform bill. A bill to modernize
surplus lines and the reinsurance regulatory system will
probably not be affected,
although discussion will continue about the appropriateness
of an optional federal charter for
insurance, Mr. McKay said. IF
Business Insurance
BY THE NUMBERS
®
More companies face class actions
Publisher
One third of the survey participants have at least one class action pending,
compared with the 2005 survey, in which just 18% reported any class
actions within the previous three years.
Industries with the highest percentage of United States class actions
69% INSURANCE
65%
51%
43%
RETAIL/WHOLESALE
MANUFACTURING
BANKING/FINANCIAL SERVICES
MARTIN J. ROSS III
Editorial Director - Industry Focus
PAUL D. WINSTON
Editor - Industry Focus
RODD ZOLKOS
Editor - Business Insurance
REGIS COCCIA
News Editor
MATT SCROGGINS
Senior Editor
Types of class actions
MEG FLETCHER
38% LABOR/EMPLOYMENT
28%
23%
SECURITIES LITIGATION/ENFORCEMENT
CONTRACTS
20%
ENVIRONMENTAL/TOXIC TORT
20%
ANTITRUST/TRADE
Source: Fulbright & Jaworski L.L.P.
Senior Editor
JUDY GREENWALD
Deputy Graphics Editor
WILLIAM MURPHY
Photographer
MICHAEL MARCOTTE
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