Treasury Division
TMU 01 :(66) 2021 1111
TMU 02 :(66) 2021 1222
TMU 03 :(66) 2021 1333
Market Outlook
Highlight
1 - 7 August 2016
Last Week: The Thai baht gained against the U.S. dollar because of capital inflow
and a weaker in the U.S. dollar. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 0.25-0.50%
in the meeting on Wednesday (27/7) and U.S. GDP released at a slower pace than
expected in the second quarter. The yen also gained after the Bank of Japan (BOJ)
disappointed market expectations for stimulus on Friday (29/7). The euro was
supported after gross domestic product rose than expected in the second quarter.
This Week: We will focus on the Bank of Thailand (BOT) Policy meeting on
Wednesday (3/8). Moreover, we will focus on the Bank of England (BOE) rate
announcement on Thursday (4/8), amid expectations that the central bank will step
up monetary stimulus to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.
In addition, we are also focus on the U.S. economic reports such as U.S. ISM data on
both manufacturing (1/8) and service sector activity (3/8), U.S. nonfarm payrolls and
unemployment rate (5/8).
USD
Last week, the Dollar index opened at 97.531 on Monday (25/7), which was higher
than the previous close at 96.916 on Friday (22/7). The USD was supported by
better US economic data. US Preliminary PMI Manufacturing by Markit rose to 52.9 in
July, from 51.3 last month, regarded as the highest level since October 2015.
Furthermore, Ms.Christine Lagarde, Director of IMF, commented in Beijing that the
global GDP growth forecast this year was downgraded by 0.1% to 3.1% because of
global concern over Brexit. Higher global risks together with better US economic
figures lead to a strengthening of the Greenback. However, after the FOMC’s meeting
during 26-27 July, the Dollar index was sharply dropped. FOMC held interest rate at
the same level as expected, also mentioning about US stronger labour market and
moderate GDP growth, but investment is still fragile. As a result, FOMC will closely
monitor global economic activity and rate hike would be gradual. Undoubtedly, this
message made investors disappointed after many analysts expected that FOMC will
hint timing of next rate hike to be in September. Moreover, on Friday (29/7), US GDP
in Q2 was announced at 1.2%, much lower than forecast at 2.6%. During last week,
the Dollar index was trading in range of 95.384-37.569 and closed at 95.53 on Friday
(29/7).
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 1 ---
Graph: Dollar Index (DXY)
25/07/2016 - 02/08/2016 (NYC)
Daily Q.DXY
Price
USD
Cndl, Q.DXY, Trade Price
01/08/2016, 95.604, 95.685, 95.537, 95.611, +0.081, (+0.08%)
97.2
97
96.8
96.6
96.4
96.2
96
95.8
95.611
95.6
.123
25
26
27
July 2016
28
29
01
02
August 2016
Source: Reuter
Comments: In this week, the Dollar index tends to depreciate against major
currencies, owing to fragile US economic data. This week, the main focus is on
personal income (2/8) and unemployment rate (5/8).
EUR & GBP
Last week, the euro opened at 1.0968/70 USD/EUR on Monday (25/7), slightly
depreciated from the previous week closing level at 1.0973/75 USD/EUR in the wake
of shootings that took place on Friday in Munich. The Munich-based IFO economic
institute announced on Monday (25/7), its business climate index, based on a
monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, fell to 108.3 in July from 108.7 in June.
However, the euro gained against the dollar on Thursday (28/7) after the U.S.
Federal Reserve stopped short of signaling a near-term rate rise. The federal labor
office showed the seasonal adjusted jobless total fell by 7,000 to 2.682 million and
the jobless rate remained at the record low of 6.1%, the lowest level since 1990. On
Friday (29/7), German retail sales fell by 0.1% on the month in June but a stronger
than yearly forecast rise suggested consumer spending, which is expected to drive
growth this year, remains a pillar of support for the economy as foreign trade
weakens. Last week, the euro traded between 1.0950-1.1197 USD/EUR and closed
on Friday (29/7) at 1.1170/72 USD/EUR.
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 2 ---
The pound sterling opened at 1.3111/13 USD/GBP on Monday (25/7), slightly
appreciated from the previous week closing level at 1.3106/08 USD/GBP. On
Wednesday (27/7), the Office of National Statistics announced that the economy
grew by a quarterly rate of 0.6%, up from 0.4% in the first quarter, the biggest
upturn in industrial production since 1999. However, the economic sentiment in
Britain plunged to 102.6 in July from 107.0 in June, with losses across all sectors.
The most spectacular decline was the drop in sentiment among British consumers to
-9.2 from -1.2 in June, followed by a 5.5 point drop in optimism in retail trade and a
3.9 point fall in industry. The pound traded between 1.3055-1.3300 USD/GBP and
closed on Friday (29/7) at 1.3226/28 USD/GBP.
Graph: EUR and GBP
20/07/2016 - 03/08/2016 (GMT)
Daily QEUR=
Price
USD
1.1179
Cndl, QEUR=, Bid
01/08/2016, 1.1173, 1.1183, 1.1162, 1.1179, +0.0009, (+0.08%)
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14
01/08/2016, 1.1057
1.116
1.114
1.112
1.11
1.108
1.106
1.1057
1.104
1.102
1.1
1.098
1.096
Auto
20
21
22
25
26
July 2016
27
28
29
01
02
03
August 2016
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 3 ---
20/07/2016 - 03/08/2016 (GMT)
Daily QGBP=
Price
USD
Cndl, QGBP=, Bid
01/08/2016, 1.3229, 1.3250, 1.3196, 1.3243, +0.0017, (+0.13%)
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 14
01/08/2016, 1.3193
1.329
1.326
1.3243
1.323
1.32
1.3193
1.317
1.314
1.311
1.308
1.305
Auto
20
21
22
25
26
July 2016
27
28
29
01
02
03
August 2016
Source: Reuters
Comments: The euro is expected to appreciate against the dollar after the Federal
Reserve's statement was seen as increasing the possibility of a September rate hike
.While the pound sterling is expected to depreciate against the dollar as uncertainty
over the Brexit. This week, the market will focus on the Bank of England’s rate
decision on Thursday (4/8). The euro is expected to be traded within a range of
1.0900-1.1250 USD/EUR while the pound sterling is expected to be traded within a
range of 1.3050-1.3350 USD/GBP.
AUD & NZD
At the beginning of the week, the Australian dollar steadied at 0.7468/70 USD/AUD
as investors waited ahead of inflation data later this week which could cement the
case for another rate cut as early as next month. With Iron ore looking weak as
supply comes back into the market and lack of demand continuing to weigh on the
market, Australia was still in the middle of tough economic situation. However, the
Aussie jumped to a high of 0.7567 USD/AUD from 0.7500 levels after the release of
CPI on Wednesday (27/7); the core consumer prices gained more than expected
last quarter, which rose to 1.7%. The Aussie continually strengthened on Thursday
(28/7), benefiting from weakness in the USD after the Fed failed to hint at rate hike
in September. However, on Friday (29/7) the AUD slightly dropped against the
greenback after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) disappointed investors who were expecting
on something more aggressive in order to lift the country out of decades of
deflation. During a week, the AUD move in range of 0.7417-0.7610 USD/AUD and
closed on Friday at 0.7505/07 USD/AUD.
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 4 ---
While NZD is one of the best performing currencies last week, the NZD opened on
Monday (25/7) at 0.6970/73 USD/NZD. The NZD was supported by the weaken
dollar as the Fed was in no rush to raise rates, moreover, the search of the yield
helped to keep the AUD and NZD buoyant. During a week, the economic data came
out mixed; 2Q exports rose 4% YoY to NZD 13.1 billion in June, while building
permits in June was -16.3% from -0.9% in prior month, and business confidence fell
to 16 in July from 20.2 in June. The NZD this week move between 0.6955-0.7228
USD/NZD and closed on Friday (29/7) at 0.7104/09 USD/NZD.
Graph: AUD and NZD
22/07/2016 - 01/08/2016 (GMT)
Daily QAUD=
Price
USD
Cndl, QAUD=, Bid
01/08/2016, 0.7589, 0.7615, 0.7575, 0.7601, +0.0006, (+0.08%)
0.7601
0.759
0.756
0.753
0.75
0.747
0.744
0.741
.1234
22
25
26
27
July 2016
28
29
01
21/07/2016 - 02/08/2016 (GMT)
Daily QNZD=
Price
USD
Cndl, QNZD=, Bid
01/08/2016, 0.7200, 0.7230, 0.7187, 0.7212, +0.0010, (+0.14%)
0.723
0.7212
0.72
0.717
0.714
0.711
0.708
0.705
0.702
0.699
0.696
.1234
21
22
25
26
27
July 2016
28
29
01
02
August 2016
Source: Reuters
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 5 ---
Comments: The main focus in Australia will be the outcome of the RBA’s Board
meeting to be announced on Tuesday (August 2), which the RBA is expected to cut
rate by 25bp to 1.5%. Aside from the RBA, the main focus in New Zealand in
coming week will be on labor costs reports released on Wednesday (3/8). The RBNZ
will hold its meeting on August 13, which is also expected to cut rates to a record
low. The AUD is expected to move in range of 0.7400-0.7650 USD/AUD while the
NZD is expected to move in range of 0.6950-0.7250 USD/NZD.
JPY
The Japanese Yen (JPY) opened at 106.62/64 JPY/USD on Monday morning (25/7),
depreciating from Friday (22/7) closing level at 106.11/14 due to the appreciation of
the US dollar. However, the major focus of investors toward the JPY was on the
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting on Friday of 29 July 2016. After the meeting,
the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, but doubled loan
limit from 12 billion USD to 24 billion USD in order to support the economic recovery
and to prevent bad consequences which could possibly occur if the United Kingdom
may leave the European Union (Brexit) in the end. The BOJ also remained the
quantitative easing at 80 trillion JPY per year, and expanded the limit of the ETF
funding. After the result was announced, the JPY was traded to the strongest level
at 102.85 JPY/USD before it gradually depreciated owing to the disappointment
from many economists about the similar monetary policy made. On the same day,
Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda, the BOJ Governor, emphasized that BOJ would employ the
easing monetary policy in order to drive inflation rate to targeted level at 2.0%.
Additionally, the JPY gained in this week after the Japanese Ministry of Finance
announced Trade Surplus at 692 billion JPY which was higher than the expectation
at 474 billion JPY. During this week, the JPY moved between 102.85 and 106.53
JPY/USD before it closed at 103.64/66 JPY/USD.
Graph: JPY
22/07/2016 - 03/08/2016 (GMT)
Daily QJPY=
Price
/USD
Cndl, QJPY=, Bid
02/08/2016, 102.38, 102.47, 102.20, 102.39, +0.01, (+0.01%)
106
105.5
105
104.5
104
103.5
103
102.5
102.39
102
Auto
22
25
26
27
July 2016
28
29
01
02
03
August 2016
Source: Reuters
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 6 ---
Comments: The Japanese Yen tends to move between 100.00 and 103.50
JPY/USD in this week due to the depreciation of the USD and the BOJ monetary
policy which is not likely to have more easing policy.
THB
Last week, the movement of the THB was weighed by capital inflow and a weaker in
USD. The THB was opened on Monday (25/7) at 34.98/35.01 THB/USD slightly
appreciated from previous closed level at 34.95/98 THB/USD. Initially, the THB was
pressured by a bullish dollar trend after recent pack of strong U.S. economic data.
On Wednesday (27/7), The Ministry of Commerce reported that the Thai exports fell
less than expected in June, helped by shipments of cars and gold, but demand from
some major markets remained weak. Exports declined 0.1 percent from a year
earlier, whereas Imports slump 10.1 percent. The Ministry of commerce also
expected the economic in second half of 2016 will be better from rebounding in
agricultural goods and oil price. The THB was gradually strengthened at the end of
the week after there was no new hint on FOMC meetings and disappointing BoJ
monetary policy meeting. The THB was closed at 34.82/86 THB/USD and varied
during the week at 34.82-35.08 THB/USD.
Graph: THB
22/07/2016 - 01/08/2016 (GMT)
Daily QTHB=
Price
/USD
Cndl, QTHB=, Bid
29/07/2016, 34.85, 34.91, 34.81, 34.83, -0.01, (-0.03%)
SMA, QTHB=, Bid(Last), 14
29/07/2016, 34.99
35.2
35.15
35.1
35.05
35
34.99
34.95
34.9
34.85
34.83
34.8
34.75
.12
22
25
26
27
July 2016
28
29
01
Source: Reuters
Comments: The stronger trend of the THB could stay longer than we expected due
to the capital inflow and uncertainty in global economic. This week, the 7th Aug
referendum on the draft constitution will be on investors’ radar as well as U.S labor
data scheduled on 5th Aug. In addition, The Bank of Thailand Policy meeting on 3rd
Aug will generate slightly affect to the market. We believe that the THB will be more
persuade to the investors in short, but if the referendum result was disappoint the
market, we could see a heavy sell in THB at the beginning of next week. We
expected the range of the THB will be 34.65-34.92 THB/USD
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 7 ---
FX Forecast
Currency
USD/THB
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/JPY
Support
34.65
1.0900
1.3050
0.7400
0.6950
100.00
Resistance
34.92
1.1250
1.3350
0.7650
0.7250
103.50
Economic Calendar
Last Week
Date
25-Jul
25-Jul
25-Jul
25-Jul
25-Jul
25-Jul
25-Jul
25-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
26-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
Event
JN
JN
JN
JN
GE
GE
GE
US
JN
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
JN
GE
GE
GE
FR
FR
FR
IT
IT
Trade Balance
Trade Balance Adjusted
Exports YoY
Imports YoY
IFO Business Climate
IFO Current Assessment
IFO Expectations
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
PPI Services YoY
S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI MoM SA
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA
S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA
S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index
S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA
Markit US Services PMI
Markit US Composite PMI
Consumer Confidence Index
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
New Home Sales
New Home Sales MoM
Small Business Confidence
Import Price Index MoM
Import Price Index YoY
GfK Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence
PPI MoM
PPI YoY
Consumer Confidence Index
Manufacturing Confidence
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jun
May
May
May
May
May
May
Jul P
Jul P
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jun
Jun
Aug
Jul
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Survey Actual
Prior
¥474.4b ¥692.8b -¥40.7b
¥244.2b ¥335.0b ¥269.8b
-11.3
-7.4
-11.3
-20
-18.8
-13.8
107.5
108.3
108.7
114
114.7
114.5
101.6
102.2
103.1
-10
-1.3
-18.3
0.10%
0.20%
0.20%
-0.19%
0.07%
189.5 188.29 186.63
0.10% -0.05%
0.45%
5.52%
5.24%
5.44%
-180.7 178.69
-5.05%
5.03%
52
50.9
51.4
-51.5
51.2
96
97.3
98
-5
10
-7
560k
592k
551k
1.60%
3.50% -6.00%
-47.8
46.5
0.60%
0.50%
0.90%
-4.60% -4.60% -5.50%
9.9
10
10.1
96
96
97
-0.40%
0.30%
--3.10% -3.50%
109.2
111.3
110.2
102
103.1
102.8
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 8 ---
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
27-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
IT
UK
UK
UK
UK
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
JN
JN
JN
JN
UK
UK
GE
GE
GE
GE
GE
GE
GE
GE
GE
GE
IT
IT
GE
GE
GE
GE
EC
EC
EC
EC
EC
GE
GE
GE
GE
Economic Sentiment
GDP QoQ
GDP YoY
Index of Services MoM
Index of Services 3M/3M
Durable Goods Orders
Durables Ex Transportation
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
Pending Home Sales MoM
Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)
FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks
Nationwide House PX MoM
Nationwide House Px NSA YoY
CPI Saxony MoM
CPI Saxony YoY
Unemployment Change (000's)
Unemployment Claims Rate SA
CPI Brandenburg MoM
CPI Brandenburg YoY
CPI Hesse MoM
CPI Hesse YoY
CPI Bavaria MoM
CPI Bavaria YoY
Hourly Wages MoM
Hourly Wages YoY
CPI North Rhine Westphalia MoM
CPI North Rhine Westphalia YoY
CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM
CPI Baden Wuerttemberg YoY
Economic Confidence
Business Climate Indicator
Industrial Confidence
Services Confidence
Consumer Confidence
CPI MoM
CPI YoY
CPI EU Harmonized MoM
CPI EU Harmonized YoY
Jul
-103.3
101.2
2Q A
0.50%
0.60%
0.40%
2Q A
2.10%
2.20%
2.00%
May
0.10% -0.10%
0.60%
May
0.30%
0.30%
0.50%
Jun P
-1.40% -4.00% -2.30%
Jun P
0.30% -0.50% -0.30%
Jun P
0.20%
0.20% -0.40%
Jun P
0.40% -0.40% -0.50%
Jun
1.20%
0.20% -3.70%
Jun
3.00%
0.30%
2.40%
Jul-27 0.50%
0.50%
0.50%
Jul-27 0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
Jul-22 -¥679.3b ¥1718.1b
Jul-22 -¥175.3b ¥453.7b
Jul-22 -¥304.6b -¥115.7b
Jul-22 --¥271.5b ¥444.6b
Jul
0.00%
0.50%
0.20%
Jul
4.50%
5.20%
5.10%
Jul
-0.30%
0.10%
Jul
-0.50%
0.40%
Jul
-4k
-7k
-6k
Jul
6.10%
6.10%
6.10%
Jul
-0.50%
0.10%
Jul
-0.20% -0.10%
Jul
-0.40% -0.10%
Jul
-0.20%
0.00%
Jul
-0.20%
0.10%
Jul
-0.60%
0.60%
Jun
-0.20%
0.00%
Jun
-0.70%
0.60%
Jul
-0.20%
0.10%
Jul
-0.50%
0.40%
Jul
-0.30%
0.00%
Jul
-0.30%
0.20%
Jul
103.5
104.6
104.4
Jul
0.17
0.39
0.22
Jul
-3.3
-2.4
-2.8
Jul
10.3
11.1
10.8
Jul F
-7.9
-7.9
-7.9
Jul P
0.20%
0.30%
0.10%
Jul P
0.30%
0.40%
0.30%
Jul P
0.30%
0.40%
0.10%
Jul P
0.30%
0.40%
0.20%
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 9 ---
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
28-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
US
US
US
US
US
UK
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
FR
FR
GE
GE
FR
FR
FR
FR
FR
FR
IT
UK
UK
UK
UK
UK
Advance Goods Trade Balance
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
GfK Consumer Confidence
Overall Household Spending YoY
Natl CPI YoY
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY
Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY
Tokyo CPI YoY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY
Loans & Discounts Corp YoY
Industrial Production MoM
Industrial Production YoY
Retail Trade YoY
Retail Sales MoM
Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales
BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base
BOJ Basic Balance Rate
BOJ Macro Add-On Balance Rate
BOJ Policy Rate
Vehicle Production YoY
Housing Starts YoY
Annualized Housing Starts
Construction Orders YoY
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY
GDP QoQ
GDP YoY
Retail Sales MoM
Retail Sales YoY
CPI EU Harmonized MoM
CPI EU Harmonized YoY
CPI MoM
CPI YoY
Consumer Spending MoM
Consumer Spending YoY
Unemployment Rate
Net Consumer Credit
Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings
Mortgage Approvals
Money Supply M4 MoM
M4 Money Supply YoY
Jun
-$61.0b -$63.3b -$60.6b
Jul-23 262k
266k
253k
Jul-16 2136k 2139k
2128k
Jul-24 -42.9
42.9
Jul
4
-6
2
Jul
-8
-12
-1
Jun
-0.40% -2.20% -1.10%
Jun
-0.40% -0.40% -0.40%
Jun
-0.40% -0.50% -0.40%
Jun
0.50%
0.40%
0.60%
Jul
-0.50% -0.40% -0.50%
Jul
-0.40% -0.40% -0.50%
Jul
0.30%
0.30%
0.40%
Jun
-2.06%
2.58%
Jun P
0.50%
1.90% -2.60%
Jun P
-2.90% -1.90% -0.40%
Jun
-1.20% -1.40% -1.90%
Jun
0.30%
0.20%
0.00%
Jun
-0.80% -1.50% -2.20%
Jul-29 ¥80t
¥80t
¥80t
Jul-29 -0.10%
0.10%
Jul-29 -0.00%
0.00%
Jul-29 -0.15% -0.10% -0.10%
Jun
--1.00%
1.70%
Jun
-2.70% -2.50%
9.80%
Jun
0.998m 1.004m 1.017m
Jun
--2.40% 34.50%
Jun
0.70%
0.80%
0.80%
2Q A
0.20%
0.00%
0.60%
2Q A
1.60%
1.40%
1.30%
Jun
0.10% -0.10%
0.90%
Jun
1.50%
2.70%
2.60%
Jul P
-0.40% -0.40%
0.10%
Jul P
0.40%
0.40%
0.30%
Jul P
-0.40% -0.40%
0.10%
Jul P
0.30%
0.20%
0.20%
Jun
0.20% -0.80% -0.70%
Jun
2.00%
0.60%
2.20%
Jun P 11.40% 11.60% 11.50%
Jun
1.4b
1.8b
1.5b
Jun
2.7b
3.3b
2.8b
Jun
65.5k 64.8k
67.0k
Jun
-1.10%
1.20%
Jun
-3.50%
1.80%
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 10 ---
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
29-Jul
UK
EC
EC
EC
EC
EC
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
IT
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised
Unemployment Rate
CPI Estimate YoY
CPI Core YoY
GDP SA QoQ
GDP SA YoY
CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM
CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY
CPI EU Harmonized MoM
CPI EU Harmonized YoY
PPI MoM
PPI YoY
Employment Cost Index
GDP Annualized QoQ
Personal Consumption
GDP Price Index
Core PCE QoQ
Chicago Purchasing Manager
U. of Mich. Sentiment
U. of Mich. Current Conditions
U. of Mich. Expectations
U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul A
2Q A
2Q A
Jul P
Jul P
Jul P
Jul P
Jun
Jun
2Q
2Q A
2Q A
2Q A
2Q A
Jul
Jul F
Jul F
Jul F
Jul F
Jul F
4.00%
8.00%
10.10% 10.10%
0.10%
0.20%
0.80%
0.90%
0.30%
0.30%
1.50%
1.60%
0.00%
0.20%
-0.30% -0.10%
-1.90% -1.80%
-0.20% -0.10%
-0.50%
--3.40%
0.60%
0.60%
2.50%
1.20%
4.40%
4.20%
1.90%
2.20%
1.70%
1.70%
54
55.8
90.2
90
-109
-77.8
-2.70%
-2.60%
5.20%
10.10%
0.10%
0.90%
0.60%
1.70%
0.10%
-0.40%
0.10%
-0.20%
0.70%
-4.20%
0.60%
1.10%
1.50%
0.40%
2.00%
56.8
89.5
108.7
77.1
2.80%
2.60%
JN
JN
IT
FR
Event
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
Vehicle Sales YoY
Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI
Markit France Manufacturing PMI
Jul F
Jul
Jul
Jul F
Survey Actual
-49.3
--0.20%
52.5
51.2
48.6
48.6
Prior
49
3.00%
53.5
48.6
GE
EC
UK
US
US
US
US
US
IT
IT
JN
JN
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Construction Spending MoM
ISM Manufacturing
ISM Prices Paid
ISM New Orders
New Car Registrations YoY
Budget Balance
Monetary Base YoY
Monetary Base End of period
Jul F
Jul F
Jul F
Jul F
Jun
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
This Week
Date
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
01-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
------
53.7 -51.9 -49.1 -52.9 -0.50% -53 -61 -------
53.7
51.9
49.1
52.9
-0.80%
53.2
60.5
57
11.88%
8.6b
25.40%
¥403.9t
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 11 ---
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
02-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
03-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
JN
UK
EC
EC
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
UK
JN
JN
IT
IT
FR
FR
GE
GE
EC
EC
UK
UK
UK
EC
EC
US
US
US
US
US
JN
JN
JN
JN
GE
UK
EC
GE
EC
Consumer Confidence Index
Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI
PPI MoM
PPI YoY
Personal Income
Personal Spending
Real Personal Spending
PCE Deflator MoM
PCE Deflator YoY
PCE Core MoM
PCE Core YoY
ISM New York
Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales
Wards Total Vehicle Sales
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
Nikkei Japan PMI Services
Nikkei Japan PMI Composite
Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI
Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI
Markit France Services PMI
Markit France Composite PMI
Markit Germany Services PMI
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Official Reserves Changes
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
Retail Sales MoM
Retail Sales YoY
MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment Change
Markit US Services PMI
Markit US Composite PMI
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks
Markit Germany Construction PMI
New Car Registrations YoY
ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin
Markit Germany Retail PMI
Markit Eurozone Retail PMI
Jul
42 -Jul
44 -Jun
0.40% -Jun
-3.40% -Jun
0.30% -Jun
0.30% -Jun
0.20% -Jun
0.20% -Jun
0.90% -Jun
0.10% -Jun
1.60% -Jul
--Jul
13.00m -Jul
17.20m -Jul
--Jul
--Jul
--Jul
51 -Jul
52.4 -Jul F
50.3 -Jul F
50 -Jul F
54.6 -Jul F
55.3 -Jul F
52.7 -Jul F
52.9 -Jul
--Jul F
47.4 -Jul F
47.7 -Jun
0.00% -Jun
1.80% -Jul-29 --Jul
170k
-Jul F
51 -Jul F --Jul
56 -Jul-29 --Jul-29 --Jul-29 --Jul-29 --Jul
--Jul
--Jul
Jul
---
---
41.8
46
0.60%
-3.90%
0.20%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.90%
0.20%
1.60%
45.4
12.76m
16.61m
-2.00%
49.4
49
51.9
52.6
50.3
50
54.6
55.3
52.7
52.9
$1619m
47.4
47.7
0.40%
1.60%
-11.20%
172k
50.9
51.5
56.5
¥679.3b
¥175.3b
¥304.6b
-¥271.5b
50.4
-0.80%
51.6
48.5
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 12 ---
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
04-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
05-Aug
FR
IT
UK
UK
UK
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
JN
JN
JN
JN
JN
GE
GE
FR
FR
UK
UK
IT
IT
IT
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
Markit France Retail PMI
Markit Italy Retail PMI
Bank of England Bank Rate
BOE Asset Purchase Target
Bank of England Inflation Report
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Factory Orders
Factory Orders Ex Trans
Durable Goods Orders
Durables Ex Transportation
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
Official Reserve Assets
Labor Cash Earnings YoY
Real Cash Earnings YoY
Leading Index CI
Coincident Index
Factory Orders MoM
Factory Orders WDA YoY
Trade Balance
Current Account Balance
Halifax House Prices MoM
Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year
Industrial Production MoM
Industrial Production WDA YoY
Industrial Production NSA YoY
Trade Balance
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
Change in Private Payrolls
Change in Manufact. Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
Average Weekly Hours All Employees
Change in Household Employment
Labor Force Participation Rate
Underemployment Rate
Jul
--Jul
--##### 0.25% -Aug 375b
--
51
40.2
0.50%
375b
Jul
--Jul-30 265k
-Jul-23 2130k -Jul-31 --Jun
-1.90% -Jun
--Jun F
-4.00% -Jun F
-1.00% -Jun F --Jun F --Jul
--Jun
0.30% -Jun
--Jun P
99.7 -Jun P
111.2 -Jun
0.50% -Jun
-1.50% -Jun
-3900m -Jun
--Jul
-0.20% -Jul
8.80% -Jun
0.30% -Jun
1.00% -Jun
--Jun
-$43.0b -Jul
175k
-Jul
--Jul
173k
-Jul
4k
-Jul
4.80% -Jul
0.20% -Jul
2.60% -Jul
34.4 -Jul
--Jul
--Jul
---
-14.10%
266k
2139k
42.9
-1.00%
0.10%
-4.00%
-0.50%
0.20%
-0.40%
$1265.4b
-0.20%
0.20%
99.7
109.9
0.00%
-0.20%
-2840m
-0.3b
1.30%
8.40%
-0.60%
-0.60%
5.70%
-$41.1b
287k
-6k
265k
14k
4.90%
0.10%
2.60%
34.4
67
62.70%
9.60%
This material is prepared on the purpose of information reference only. The information based upon our most up-to-date and
reliable sources. Please note that Bangkok Bank PCL and its officers do not solicit any action based upon this information.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
--- 13 ---