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WINES
BY MICHAEL
ficholas II, the Czarof imperial Russia,was commandItI
ing his troops in the \7orld
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\Var I struggleagainstGermanywhen
the messagearrived from Petrograd:
"The situation is grave.Anarchy reigns
in the capital."
It was March 2, 19L7, and Nicholas rushedback to Petrograd(now
I
St. Petersburg).But at the Navy's
headquarters,his last loyal troops
had alreadysurrenderedto prodemocracyforcesrepresentingboth
Russia'spoor and its intellectual
elite. The imperial tricolor had been
yankeddown, and the flag of the
revolutionariesrosein its place.
Nicholas saw the handwriting on
the wall. He abdicated-and a lons
24
@beNeiullmk@irneg u p FRo Nr . UpFRo Nr MAGAZI NE.c o M
legacyof unchallengedrule and
unimaginableriches cameto an end.
The promised democracy,however,proved to be shortJived.\X/ithin
months, Communiststook over and
establisheda dictatorshipthat would
swallowhalf of Europe and threaten
democracyand the \Westfor most of
the 20th century.
WHY I9I7 MATTENS
The SovietUnion itself collapsedin
a new democraticrevolutionin 199t.
Communism,oncea gravethreat,is now
a discreditedideology.Sowhy should
anyonecareabout the eventsof 79177
For one thing, becausehistoryoften
repeatsitself.Russiahad a chanceat freedom in l9I7 andit slipped away.Could
that happen againtodayin the Russiaof
Vladimir Putin? (Seepreuiousstory.)
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Nor is Russiathe only placewhere
1917'slessonsmight apply.The world
has other new,foundering democracies,like Iraq, where someof the same
stresses
that tore Russiaapartnine
decadesago areevidenttoday.
Back in I9I7,the Czar'sfall was
greetedwith greatexcitement."London Overjoyedat News," saida New
York Timesheadline.Russia"had
joined the democraciesof the world,"
the articlestated.But it alsonoted
anxietyamongsomeforeign diplomatsin London that "ffoublesome
developmentsmay occur."
KINGS ON THE RUN
During the hundredsof yearsof
czaristrule, Russiawasmainly a feudal
society:Millions of peasantstilled soil
owned by a smalllanded classthat
wasloyalto the Czar.But by the midfor most of the 19th century,cameto
1800s,the daysof absolurerulerswere Russia,the peasantsmigratedto
numbered:Democraticrevolutions
citiesfor factory work-and began
againstmonarchssweptthrough Gerto agitatefor changesin their brutal
many and much of the rest of Europe
living and working conditions.
in 1848,and althoughthe revolts
failed, they planted the seedsof a
A NADICAL NETUNNS
movementthat would later replace,or
The immediatetriggerto revolution
at leastreducethe power of, kings with was\WorldWar I, which l:egann 1,914.
parliamentsand prime ministers.
Ncholas castRussiainto the war against
Sensingthe winds of change
Germany,asan allywith the U.S.,Britabroadand risingdiscontentat home,
ain, and France,but his ill-prepared
someCzarstried reforms.Alexander
armyof peasantsoldierssufferedhuge
Il-Nicholas's grandfather-abolished
losses,
andthe wars economicstrains
serfdomin 1861and gavefarmsto some causedstarvationat home.
of the52 million peasants
he had freed.
Discontentamongthe peopleand
"I'd ratherliberatethem from the
the military cameto a headin March
top," he said,"than havethem liberate
themselves
from the bottom."
Micbael'[/inesisJohannesburg
bureauchief
But as the Industrial Revolution,
Tbe
Neu
York
Tines.
preuiously
He
for
which had been transformingEurope seruedas The Times'sMoscou.,bureaucbief.
M A R C H1 2 , 2 0 0 7
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comeeasilyfor peoplewho havespent
centuriesin fear of all-powerful rulers.
peoIn 1917.certainly,
the Russian
1917.A provisionalgovernmentseized
power afterthe Czar'sabdication,and
in July,Russia'slegislature,the Duma,
choseAlexanderKerensky,an eloquent
but weak Socialist,asthe nation'sPrime
Minister.Kerenskyendedpresscensorship and political repression-allowing
dozensof radicalsliving in exileto
return to Russia.One of them was
Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov,better knoum
by his nickname:Lenin,
Lenin was a brilliant politician. His
slogan,"peace,bread,land," promised
Russia's
hungry,war-wearypeasants
everythingthey wanted.His followers.the Bolsheviks.infiltratedworkers'
councils(calledSoviets)that shared
power with the Duma, and slowly
gainedpowerin the cities.
Still, it was Kerensky'sclumsyrule
that allowedLenin to seizepower.
Ignoring popular opinion, Kerenskykept Russiain the war against
Germany,hoping Russiawould be
rewardedwith land and aid promised
by its allies.
tEssoNsron ToDAY
By October, Kerensky'ssupport
was so weak that Lenin was able to
capturePetrogradwith a handful of
troops.On November6, Kerenskyfled
the \0inter Palacedissuisedaseither
26
a Red Crossnurseor a sailor.And the
SovietUnion wasborn.
What lessonsdo historianstake
from all this? One is that overthrowing
authoritarianrulers is often easierthan
building a free nation from the ruins
they leavebehind-and thosein charge
must showresultsquickly,beforepeople turn againstthem in frusuation.
"It's a pattern you seein lots of
placeswherethere'sa statecollapse,"
savsMichaelMcFaul. a StanfordUniversitypolitical scientist.
"You havethis interim
period wherethe moderatesarein charge,But they
don't havethe capability,
and thingsstartmoving
too fast.
"You havethe absence
of a state.... And that's
alwaysa ripe time for radicalsand exremistswho
middle-of-thesay,'These
roadersjustwon't do.' "
Anotherlessonis that
it's hard to bring democracy to peoplewho havenever known
freedom.Democracyis an act of
faith-faith that everyonewill follow
a commonlaw; faith in the majority's
willingnessto be fair to all, respecting
minority rights. That faith doesnot
@be$rtrrflork@iued u p FRoNr . u p FRo Nr MAGAZI NE.c o M
ple had no knowiedgeof democracy,
and no patiencewith a government
that promised,but could not deliver,a
betterlife.
In I99I, when they oustedtheir
werebetCommunistrulers,Russians
ter informedand more patient.But the
first 10 yearsof freedomwere chaotic,
marked by economiccollapse,poverty,
and rampantcorruption.
.MANAGED
DEMOCRACY'
\X/henPutin took power at the end
of 1999,manypeoplewelcomeda
ruler who promisedto restoresome
order to their lives,evenif it meantless
seemedto
freedom-just asRussians
accept,at leastat first, a Communist
dictatorshipafterthe collapseofthe
Kerenskygovernment.But Putin has
silencedmuch of the pressand many
of his critics,all but
wiping out any opposition,
Putin is no Lenin.
He still insistsRussia
is a democracy-just
a"manageddemocracy,"in his words.
But someRussians
haven'tgivenup on
tLo
"o"l
thi.-
"It's also a ffansitional period, to an
unmanaged democracy," saysOleg
fuheshevsky,a historian in Moscow.
"It's impossibleto just move from
one stageto anotherwithout Laking
of
with you someparts,someessence,
the previousperiod. That'swhy elementsof authoritarianrule exist." o
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