The
49th
APERC Workshop
APEC Energy Working Group and Associated Meetings
Gyeongju, Republic of Korea, 22 June, 2015
6th APEC Energy Demand and Supply
Outlook
Cecilia Tam
Deputy Vice President, APERC
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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APEC Total Final Energy Demand
Preliminary results
8000
Mtoe
7000
Non-energy
6000
Agricultural and
non-specified
5000
Commercial
4000
Residential
3000
Transport
Industry
2000
1000
0
2012
2020
2030
2040
Source: APERC Analysis
Energy demand rises 50% by 2040, led by higher demand in transport
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Growth in Final Energy Demand compared to 2012
Preliminary results
2500
2000
South East Asia
1500
Mtoe
Oceania
Other Americas
1000
Other NE Asia
Russia
500
US
China
0
-500
2020
2030
2040
Source: APERC Analysis
China and South East Asia account for nearly 90% of all additional demand
Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other North East Asia (Hong Kong,
Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam)
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Fossil Fuels Continue to Dominate
Preliminary results
12000
10000
85%
Fossil
fuel
Mtoe
8000
6000
4000
Hydro
Nuclear
86%
Fossil
fuel
Other Renewables
Gas
Oil
2000
Coal
0
2012
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Other Renewables
Nuclear
Fuel Shares
1990
2012
27.9%
37.5%
35.7%
28.3%
20.2%
20.2%
1.9%
2.2%
8.6%
7.2%
5.8%
4.6%
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
2040
2040
34.3%
28.6%
22.2%
2.7%
7.9%
4.2%
Source: APERC Analysis
Natural gas demand will increase by
57% in 2040 from 2012 level while
hydro and other renewables will
increase by 63% within the same
period.
5
APEC Energy Supply Gap
Preliminary results
Net Exporter
2040
-276
Net Importer
-1004
1784
785
251
China
2030
-243
-812
1594
778
Russia
Other NEA
2012
-569
386
772
US
345
Other Americas
2000
-353
1990
-402
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
680
494
0
Oceania
650
SEA
304
500
1000
Mtoe
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Source: APERC Analysis
Supply gap is define as demand minus production.
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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7
Electricity Generation By Region
Generation, 2012 and 2040 [TWh]
1500
[TWh]
Preliminary results
Russia
Other Americas
2000
1000
15000
China
500
10000
1000
0
2012 2040
5000
2012
Other NEA
0
2012
3000
0
2040
2000
4000
600
1000
6000 United States
1000
SE Asia
2000
0
Oceania
2012
2040
400
0
2012 2040
2040
2000
0
2012
200
2040
0
2012
2040
Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.
Source: APERC Analysis
China and South East Asia drive future electricity demand in APEC
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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APEC Energy Investment in Energy Supply
Preliminary results
Total Energy Investment by Sub-Sector
(In USD Trillion)
0.86
Upstream (Oil, Gas and Coal
Production)
8.11
14.01
1.01
Downstream (Refinery and
LNG Import and Export
Terminals)
Power (Generating Capacity,
Transmission and Distribution
Lines)
Transport (Oil, Gas and Coal
Transport)
Low Cost Investment Case – USD 24 Trillion
High Cost Investment Case – USD 73 Trillion
(Source: APERC Analysis)
Note: Upstream (oil, gas and coal production), Downstream (refinary, LNG import and expoert terminals), Transport (oil, gas and coal) and Power
(generation, transmission and distribution
Investments in power and upstream dominate the energy sector. Power sector investments are estimated to
range from US$ 8 trillion to US$ 36 trillion, while those for upstream production range from US$ 14 trillion
to US$ 30.5 trillion
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Alternative Scenarios
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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APEC’s Energy Intensity BAU vs Alternative
Preliminary results
Energy intensity index (2005 base year)
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
45% reduction target
50
40
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
BAU Energy Intensity Index
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Alternative Energy Intensity Index
Source: APERC Analysis
APEC’s target in 2035 can be met under the alternative scenario
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Energy Savings Compared to BAU
Preliminary results
400
350
South East Asia
300
Oceania
Other Americas
Mtoe
250
Other NE Asia
200
Russia
150
US
100
China
50
2020
2030
Residential
Transport
Industry
Residential
Transport
Industry
Residential
Transport
Industry
-
2040
Source: APERC Analysis
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Renewables in APEC – 2012, 2030 and 2040
Preliminary results
100
Russia
Other North East Asia
300
United States
200
50
500
100
0
BAU-2012 HR-2030 HR-2040
0
BAU-2012
China
HR-2030
HR-2040
0
1500
BAU-2012 HR-2030 HR-2040
South East Asia
1000
300
500
200
0
BAU-2012 HR-2030 HR-2040
100
400
Other Americas
0
BAU-2012
HR-2030
HR-2040
Geothermal
200
Other Renewables
200
Solar
Wind
0
100
Hydro
2012 BAU: 761 GW
2030
High Renewables (HR): 2,526 GW
#REF!
2040 High Renewables (HR): 2,874 GW
Source: APERC Analysis
Oceania
BAU-2012 HR-2030 HR-2040
0
BAU-2012 HR-2030
HR-2040
Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Renewables in Transport
Preliminary results
• Just considering the gov’t
blend targets, the share of
biofuels will more than
double from 2.2% in the
total transport demand in
2010 to 6.0% in 2030
Mtoe
2010
2020
2030
2040
Hi-Bioethanol Demand
26
78
91
89
Hi-Biodiesel Demand
2
20
34
42
Hi-Supply, Bioethanol
57
68
83
101
Hi-Supply,
Biodiesel
Source: APERC Analysis
22
33
48
66
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• However as only 1st
generation biofuels are
assumed in the model,
supply potential for
bioethanol for both BAU
and high supply does not
meet the demand by 2020
onwards.
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Alternative Power Mix Scenario
• The scenario strives to maximize the use of clean
coal, natural gas and nuclear in the electricity
generation of APEC member economies
• To illustrate the hypothetical effects and policy
implications from drastic changes in the power mix
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Alternative Power Mix
APEC’s electricity generation, 2012 and 2040:
Preliminary results
25,000
20,000
15,000
TWh
Other Renewables
Hydro
10,000
Oil
Gas
Coal
5,000
Nuclear
0
Actual
BAU
2012
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Cleaner Coal
High Nuc
2040
High Gas
(50%)
High Gas
(100%)
Data excludes imports
Source: APERC Analysis
15
CO2 Emissions in Power Sector
Preliminary results
BAU
High Nuc
Cleaner Coal with CCS
Cleaner Coal no CCS
High Gas (50%)
High Gas (100%)
12
11
Gt CO2
10
9
8
7
6
2012
2020
2030
2040
Source: APERC Analysis
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Next Steps
• Scenario results will be updated based on feedback
gained at the Annual Conference
• Drafting to take place from July-October
• Volume II (Economy Outlook) to be circulated for
review at the end of October, comments requested
by end November.
• Volume I to be circulated for review end November,
comments requested by the end of the year.
• Release Spring 2016
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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We look forward to your feedback on
APERC’s Outlook!
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Table of Contents of 6th edition Vol I
Part 1 – APEC Demand and Supply under BAU Case
• Introduction
• Final Energy Demand
• Primary Energy Supply
• Outlook for Power
Part 2 – APEC Demand and Supply under Alternative Scenarios
• APEC Energy Intensity Goal
• APEC Doubling Renewable Energy Goal
• Alternative Power Mix Scenarios
• Energy Investments
• Implications for Energy Security and Climate Change
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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Table of Contents of 6th edition Vol II
• Key Messages
• Economy Overview
• Business as Usual
• Alternative Scenarios

APEC Energy intensity goal
 APEC Doubling renewables goal
 Alternative power mix
• Scenario Implications

Energy investments
 Sustainable energy future
 Opportunities for policy action
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
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