Validity
Examination of College Performance by National
Merit Scholarship Program Recognition Level1
By Jessica P. Marini, Krista D. Mattern, and Emily J. Shaw
College Board Research & Development
Info To Go™ 2011-10
Introduction
Data and Methodology
One of the goals of the National Merit Scholarship Program
(NMSP), a national scholarship competition conducted by the
National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC), is to identify
and honor academically talented U.S. high school students and
encourage them to pursue rigorous college studies. NMSC
selects approximately 50,000 students from more than 1.5 million entrants to qualify for recognition in the NMSC programs
and compete for scholarships. The PSAT/NMSQT®2 serves as
the initial screening criteria and then those students selected3
must meet other additional requirements to progress to higher
levels of recognition.
The data used for this study combined three cohorts of firsttime, first-year students from 177 colleges and universities,
and consisted of 386,011 students with valid PSAT/NMSQT
scores, SAT® scores, self-reported HSGPA, a FYGPA, and
second-year retention information. This sample was further
organized by NMSP recognition level — 1,053 “A Award”
Winners; 4,813 “B, C, or D Award” Winners; 2,330 Semifinalists; 20,321 Commended Students; and 357,494 students not
receiving recognition. The relationship between NMSP recognition level and performance in high school (i.e., PSAT/NMSQT
scores, SAT scores, HSGPA) and college (i.e., FYGPA, retention to the second-year) was examined, using both graphical
and statistical methods.
About the Research
Prior research has shown that National Merit Scholarship winners tended to have higher GPAs than Certificate of Merit4
recipients.5 In a similar vein, it also has been shown that students who earn higher PSAT/NMSQT scores also earn higher
grades in college, specifically students who scored highly on
the PSAT/NMSQT (i.e., scoring 200 or above).6 The purpose
of the current study was to examine whether students who
were selected as scholarship winners in high school perform
better in college than those not selected as scholarship winners to provide further evidence of the validity of the NMSC
scholarship selection process.
Different levels of awards and recognition exist as part of the
NMSP. The most prestigious academic award is a national
award selected by the National Merit Scholarship Selection Committee, which is referred to as an “A Award” in
the current study. Corporate and college-sponsored Merit
Scholarships are the second type of award given to scholarship winners, referred to as “B, C, or D Award” winners.
Semifinalists, Commended Students, and those not receiving
scholarships or recognition are the remaining levels of the
National Merit Scholarship Program.
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Results and Conclusions
Students who achieved higher levels of recognition
performed better in high school than those who did not. Specifically, “A Award” Winners had the highest average PSAT/
NMSQT scores, HSGPA, and SAT scores; followed by “B, C,
D Award” Winners; Semifinalists; and Commended Students.
Of the five NMSP recognition levels, those students who attained no level of recognition had the lowest performance for
each of the high school academic measures.
College performance showed the same pattern. As shown in
Figure 1, those students winning “A Awards” had the highest
average FYGPAs of the five groups, followed by “B, C, D
Award” Winners, Semifinalists, Commended Students, and
those receiving no recognition. In terms of returning for the
second year of college, a very similar pattern emerged — as
the NMSP recognition level increased, second-year retention
rates also increased. These results provide evidence supporting
the NMSP selection process of distinguishing between those
students who are most likely to succeed in college in terms
of both FYGPA and retention.
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Series Editor: F. Tony Di Giacomo
1
Figure 1.
Mean FYGPA by NMSP Recognition Level
Mean FYGPA
4.00
3.75
3.75
3.59
3.48
3.45
3.50
3.25
3.00
2.98
2.75
2.50
No Recognition
Commended
Semifinalists
B, C, D Award Winners
A Award Winners
NMSP Recognition Level
1. J . P. Marini, K. D. Mattern, and E. J. Shaw, Examination of College
Performance by National Merit Scholarship Program Recognition Level
(College Board Research Report No. 2011-10) (New York: The College Board,
in press). Click here for the full report:
http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/pdf/RR2011-10.pdf
2. Preliminary SAT/National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test
3. O
f these roughly 50,000 students, about 34,000 are selected to receive
Letters of Commendation, and about 16,000 are selected to qualify as
Semifinalists in the NMSP (National Merit Scholarship Program). About
15,000 of the Semifinalists qualify as Finalists, with about 8,200 receiving
Merit Scholarships. Of these 8,200 scholarships, 2,500 are National
Merit Scholarships selected by the National Merit Scholarship Selection
Committee with an award value of $2,500.
collegeboard.org/research
4. A
Certificate of Merit recipient refers to Finalists who did not win a National
Merit Scholarship award.
5. F
or more information, refer to the following articles by Holland: (1) J. L.
Holland, “The Undergraduate Achievement of National Merit Scholars and
Certificate of Merit Winners,” NASSP Bulletin 43, no. 247 (1959): 190–192.
(2) J. L. Holland, “The Achievement, Aptitudes, and Personalities of National
Merit Scholars and Certificate of Merit Winners,” NASSP Bulletin 44, (1960):
100–104.
6. J . P. Marini, K. D. Mattern, and E. J. Shaw, Examining the Linearity of the
PSAT/NMSQT-FYGPA Relationship (College Board Research Report No. 2011-7)
(New York: The College Board, in press).
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© 2011 The College Board.
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