Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting CPTM Washington, D.C., 6 October 2016 Commonwealth Partnership for Technology Management (CPTM) Brief on Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age - Recommendations and Proposals – CPTM Smart Partners’ Hub 63 Catherine Place London SW1E 6DY September 2016 CONTENTS Foreword 3 Recommendations and Proposals 5 Overview - A Strategy for Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age 7 Part I - Financial Inclusion and Interoperability Sharing Experiences: National Contexts of Financial Inclusion Part II - Strategic Interdependencies for Financial Inclusion: Statistics, Data & Standards in a Digital Landscape Part III - Special Focus on Blockchain: A New Digital Disrupter and the effect on Financial Services 11 15 23 ANNEXES Annex I: Definitions of Key Terms Annex II: Smart Reading Tips Annex III: o About CPTM o CPTM Smart Partnership Financial Inclusion Initiative o The CPTM Smart Partnership Approach to Socio-Economic Transformation 2 33 35 39 40 41 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Foreword On behalf of the CPTM Chairman, Tan Sri Datuk Dr Omar A. Rahman, and the CPTM Board of Directors, I am pleased to forward, for your consideration, a CPTM Brief, including recommendations and proposals, on adaptive flexibility approaches to Financial Inclusion in the digital age. The Brief forms part of the CPTM annual submission to the Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting, which have been provided each year since the establishment of CPTM at the 1995 CHOGM in Auckland, New Zealand. Commonwealth Central Bank Governors are invited to also consider the issues derived from the 5th CPTM Central Bank Governors Think Tanking, which took place in London in June 2016. We would like to thank and congratulate Central Bank Governors and Smart Partners for this year’s Think Tanking session, which couldn’t have been more timely and relevant considering today’s challenges and opportunities, as articulated so well by Mark Carney in a speech he gave earlier this year (see speech extracts overleaf). The Brief begins by outlining why it matters that a strategy for adaptive flexibility approaches to Financial Inclusion in the current digital age should emerge and be monitored for specific national contexts. The Brief then continues by sharing country experiences of financial inclusion and interoperability, followed by elucidating the relevance of statistics, data and standards to financial inclusion. With special insights from CPTM Smart Partner Mike Brookbanks, this year’s Brief also includes a special focus on blockchain technology as a new disruptive technology, and its effect on the financial services industry. The Brief is based on highly relevant and up-todate sources of information, including webcasts recorded at the CPTM Smart Partners’ London Hub. The CPTM Chairman and Board of Directors, as well as CPTM Smart Partners, look forward to supporting Commonwealth Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in their efforts to develop adaptive flexibility approaches to Financial Inclusion in the digital age. Dr Mihaela Smith CEO, CPTM September 2016 CPTM Smart Partners’ Hub London 3 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Extracts from Speech entitled “Enabling the FinTech transformation: Revolution, Restoration, or Reformation?”, given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at the Mansion House, London. 16 June 2016 The Promise of FinTech ‘FinTech’ heralds the dawn of narrow banking and portfolio optimisation. It will change the nature of money, shake the foundations of central banking and deliver nothing less than a democratic revolution for all who use financial services. Money and credit, the universal instruments of commerce, could not exist without this most fundamental of financial technologies, which allows debits and credits to be netted off; debt to circulate as currency; money to replace memory; and with it, trade to expand exponentially. The emergence of mobile telephony, the ubiquity of the internet, availability of highspeed computing, advances in cryptography, and innovations in machine learning could combine to enable rapid changes in finance – just as they have in other areas of the economy. The ledger, once stone, wood, or paper – and always centralised – is now digital and may become distributed. FinTech has the potential to deliver more resilient financial infrastructure, more effective trade and settlement, and new ways to encode, share and analyse data. For the financial sector, these could offer shorter, speedier transaction chains; greater capital efficiency; and stronger operational resilience. For consumers, they could mean more choice; better-targeted services; and keener pricing. For everyone, FinTech may deliver a more inclusive financial system, domestically and globally; with people better connected, more informed and increasingly empowered. The Potential impact of FinTech on financial and monetary stability Already, FinTech is spurring new entrants including payments providers, peer-topeer lenders, robo-advisors, innovative trading platforms, and foreign exchange agents. This could, with time, unbundle traditional banking models and deny banks their traditional economies of scale and scope. The systemic consequences of FinTech are even more complex. More diverse business models and alternative providers are positives for financial stability. By allowing better credit screening and less adverse selection, FinTech could improve risk assessment, credit allocation, and capital efficiency. But if it encourages herding on common information, trading positions could become more correlated. And if switching costs in funding markets fall, liquidity risk could rise and systemic risks grow. FinTech could also affect the conduct of monetary policy. Unbundled banking would change the roles of bank capital and funding costs in the credit channel of monetary policy. If FinTech enhances participation in financial markets, the wealth channel of monetary policy could strengthen. More broadly, Big Data techniques could tell us about the state of the economy more accurately and promptly. Forecast performance could improve, akin to the forecast improvements that better measurement of atmospheric conditions has, over time, delivered for meteorologists. 4 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Recommendations and Proposals Overall 1. Central Bank Governors will continue to share their experiences of Financial Inclusion Initiatives with CFMM and their insights on the evolving functions of Central Banks as a result of the impact of Digital Technology. 2. The CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking showed the need, at a National Level, to adopt the CPTM Strategic Framework based on the interconnected CPTM Inclusion Initiatives, namely National Visioning for Inclusive Security, Financial Inclusion, Quality & Standards Inclusion, Science & Technology Inclusion, Data & Statistics Inclusion and the Emerging Digital Technology Landscape, supported by relevant National Smart Partnership Hubs and Frameworks. 3. Central Banks will continue to engage with and research the potential advantages provided by FinTech developments, including Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). However, Technology providers need to be aware that Central Banks have a duty to minimise the risks involved for their citizens; o Blockchain’s emergence as a New Digital Disrupter and the effects it has on Financial Services need to be closely monitored, in particular regarding issues related to risk, regulation and governance for Central Banks. o In this context, De-Risking Strategies could be investigated further in future interactions. 4. The connection and interaction between the CPTM Financial Inclusion Initiative and the CPTM Quality & Standards Inclusion Initiative should be strengthened on the issues of Digital Financial Services and the emerging Standards surrounding Digital Technology, Digital Financial Services, Blockchain and DLT: o National Standards Bodies (NSB’s), as members of ISO’s Developing Countries (DEVCO) group, should consider working closely with ISO on the development of the proposed new Standards for Blockchain, thus monitoring developments for Central Bank Governors. 5. Further new interactions between the CPTM Financial Inclusion Initiative and the new CPTM Smart Partners’ Inclusion Initiative on Data and Statistics, should enhance the role of National Statistics Offices (NSO’s) for the best interests of the people. o There is a need for closer working relationships to be forged between Central Banks and NSO’s especially considering the rapid penetration of society by digital technology. o Central Banks could reflect on the impact of new economic activities on traditional statistics, with the potential to employ enhanced Data Science methodologies to assist this process through the work of Data Centres. o Data Visualisation can be used for increased statistical literacy and to provide a better understanding of FinTech processes. 5 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Specific 6. The following activities and considerations should be acted upon: o Sharing experiences of the evolving functions of Central Banks as a result of the acceleration of the impact of digital technology; o The strategic function of Central Banks in balancing and bridging consumer needs and the solutions of FinTech providers for National Frameworks; o Importance of Data, in particular Economic Statistics and the Impact of Digital Technology such as Blockchain, and associated Standards, for Central Banks; o De-risking strategies, a new dimension of Financial Inclusion, proposed by Dr DeLisle Worrell, Governor of the Bank of Barbados; o Underlining the importance of Financial Inclusion and Emerging Digital Technology and associated Standards for the implementation of National Visions. o An Executive Brief for Commonwealth Heads of Government proposing a Smart Partnership Dialogue will be produced by CPTM Members. CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking Participants – London, June 2016 Central Bank Governors: Professor Benno Ndulu, Governor, Bank of Tanzania, CPTM Companion; Professor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, Governor, Bank of Uganda CPTM Companion; Mr Majozi V Sithole, Governor, Central Bank of Swaziland; Dr Retšelitsoe Adelaide Matlanyane, Executive Director and Chairperson (Governor), Central Bank of Lesotho; Dr Patrick Ngugi Njoroge, Governor & Chairman, Central Bank of Kenya; Dr Denny Kalyalya, Governor, Bank of Zambia; Dr Caleb Fundanga, Executive Director, Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI); Dr Waldemar Fernando de Sousa, Executive Director and Board Member, Bank of Mozambique; Dr Grant Peter Kabango, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Malawi Special Guests: Professor Sir Charles Bean (former Deputy Governor, BoE), London School of Economics and Political Science, UK; Professor David Hand OBE, Data Science Institute (Imperial College London) CPTM Smart Partners: Ambassador Godfrey Magwenzi, Ambassador of Zimbabwe to Italy, CPTM Companion; Dr Albina Chuwa, Director General, National Bureau of Statistics, Tanzania; Dr Adam Mugume, Executive Director, Research and Policy, Bank of Uganda; Mrs Mpho Makhema, Vision 2016 Council Secretary, Botswana, CPTM Companion; Mr Silas Mosuhli, Director, Lesotho Smart Partnership Hub, Lesotho; Mr Moses Zungu, Head of Smart Partnership Secretariat, Prime Minister’s Office, Swaziland; Mr Nkundwe Moses Mwasaga, Lecturer, Dar es Salaam Institute of Technology, Tanzania; Mr Shelton Kanyanda, OECD Statistics, France; Mr Chimwemwe Mlaviwa, Reserve Bank of Malawi; Mr Jacob Mkandawire, Economist, Bank of Zambia; Mr Vijay Mauree, Digital Finance Service, International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Switzerland; Dr Bronwyn Evans, CEO, Standards Australia and Mr Varant Meguerditchian (video message); Mr Andreas Tsindos, Dr Rajiv Mathur and Mr Oliver Oram, ChainVine, UK; Mr Kartik Natarajan, Applied Blockchain, Level 39, UK; Professor Michael Mainelli, Z/Yen, UK; Dr Phil Godsiff, Centre for the Digital Economy, University of Surrey, UK; Mr Carl Miller, Centre for Analyses of Social Media (CASM), DEMOS, UK; Ms Mary Eboka, Ministry of Planning & Regional Development (MINEPAT), Cameroon; Dr Mohsin Ullah Khan, Zaheer Science Foundation, India; Mr Tony Colman, UK; Dr Juliet Colman, UK; Mr Robert Smith, UK; Dr Andrew Taussig, CPTM Director, UK; Lt General (Ret’d) Ihsan Shurdom, CPTM Director, Jordan; Dr Mihaela Y Smith, Chief Executive, CPTM 6 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Overview A Strategy for Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age 1. The 2016 CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking at the Smart Partners’ Hub focused on the following issues: The CPTM Financial Inclusion Initiative; Financial Inclusion, Data and Statistics; FinTech for Central Banking, including De-risking Strategies and the Importance of Standards; New Dimensions and Way Forward. Why it Matters? 2. A number of recent publications and events have explored the role of Digital Financial Services in Financial Inclusion processes. One example is The 2016 Brookings Financial and Digital Inclusion Project Report: Advancing Equitable Financial Ecosystems, which explored the need to establish measurable financial inclusion targets and outlined why this mattered: “Central Banks, ministries of finance, ministries of communications, banks, non-bank financial service providers, and mobile network operators have major roles in achieving greater financial inclusion and should coordinate closely with respect to policy, regulatory, and technological advances.(…) Among the SDGs closely connected to financial inclusion are objectives to: end poverty; achieve gender equality; “promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment, and decent work for all” (a goal that is particularly germane to financial inclusion); and reduce inequality within and among countries.(…) While there is no single path to facilitating financial inclusion, engagement in multinational knowledge-sharing networks and investing in digital financial services can help countries develop successful and sustainable approaches to making progress towards inclusive finance (…) Quantifiable goals can drive country commitments and policy changes with respect to financial inclusion”1 3. The G20, alongside the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI) has also made this a focal point of their recent work, notably in the G20 Principles for Innovative Financial Inclusion2 The World Bank recently released a Global Findex Database Measuring Financial Inclusion around the World, which gave a very good summary of global trends surrounding Financial Inclusion. 3 Emerging Debates on the Impact of Distributed Ledger Technology and Blockchain 4. In line with all of this, one of the major focal points of the 2016 CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking at the Smart Partners’ Hub was the impact of FinTech and Blockchain on Financial Inclusion. Since there has recently been a rapid increase in the attention afforded to technological developments by financial institutions (both Central and Commercial 1 https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/fdip_20160816_project_report.pdf http://www.gpfi.org/publications/g20-principles-innovative-financial-inclusion-executive-brief 3 http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/681361466184854434/2014-Global-Findex-Report-DKSV.pdf 2 7 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Banks), this brief has looks closely at issues surrounding FinTech, for the benefit of Finance Ministers across the Commonwealth. In particular, this brief contains an excellent introduction, courtesy of Mr Mike Brookbanks of the University of Surrey, to Blockchain and Disruptive Ledger Technology (DLT) as well as an analysis of the potential disruptive impact this could have in the coming years. 5. Currently there is a lively debate on this topic amongst many financial experts and economists, including Smart Partner and Chairman of Intelligence Capital Ltd, Professor Avinash Persaud. “I see FinTech and Blockchain as part of the long progress of improvements in information technology that will impact banking. However, it is customary for FinTech revolutionaries to overstate their impact. Technology hubris is the seed of almost all financial booms and busts from the advent of the railway, motor car, electrification, telephony, internet etc. Banking is part of the information industry, but money is a social construct centred at government for a reason. Many of the technology revolutionaries have little background in monetary theory – they will argue, just as the dotcom revolutionaries did, that they have no need for monetary theory because they are disrupting it all. However, it is governments who issue money – again for fundamental reasons that cannot be replaced. Governments have the power of taxation, of determining what is legal tender, as well as defining what is safe and acceptable in return for government-sanctioned liquidity. An example of this is the recent case of correspondent banking relationships. While technology and private trust mechanisms should be improving the flow of money and remittances and lowering its cost, banks and money wire services in developing countries, especially in small states are rapidly losing all of their correspondent banking relationships making it impossible for them to transfer money abroad. This is particularly so for the Caribbean where countries like Belize have no correspondent banks. This recent trend is alarming and will have major adverse consequences for financial inclusion. The reason is that the correspondent banks in the developed countries fear that these countries in the developing countries will be placed on “unapproved and sanction lists” for money laundering. The costs of being on these lists or being seen to have flouted regulation has risen dramatically. In recent year’s over $300bn of fines have been paid by bank shareholders. Because this process relates to who has political clout and not whether there is indeed any real risks attached to the flows, and the costs of getting it wrong have become higher, developed country banks have just closed down their risks and relationships. M-pensa would not have succeeded if started today. The main solution to developing countries will not be found in global private trust mechanisms dependent on government sanction lists, but forming alternative networks, such as with Chinese banks hiding behind their greater political clout. It is also interesting to note Thomas Philippon’s interesting work that suggests that despite all of the technological advances in information technology since the early 1900s – the age of steam trains – the average cost of financial intermediation to the non-financial sector has not fallen and remains around 1.75%.4 Think your buying costs have gone down with all the “algotrading”– check for all the new charges and costs elsewhere. This suggests that in finance they key lynchpin 4 Abstract of the FinTech Opportunity by Thomas Philippon: Financial services remain surprisingly expensive, which explains the emergence of new entrants. The current regulatory approach is subject to significant political economy and coordination costs, and therefore unlikely to deliver much structural change. FinTech can improve both financial stability and access to services, but this requires significant changes in the focus of regulations. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2819862 8 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. for the consumer is not technology, but how the financial system is organized and to whose benefit which has more to do with regulation. Technology can play a powerful role in improving the effectiveness of regulation, enabling regulators to support new forms of organisation of the industry that would benefit consumers and once we have a sector more attuned to the benefits of consumers, amplifying those benefits. A useful analogy is renewable energy. Recent advances in solar technology will be transformative for energy and the world, but this technological revolution would not have taken place if left to energy entrepreneurs and was only possible, Telsa was only possible, through large fiscal disincentives and incentives and in some cases direct regulation banning emissions. For the real revolution to happen in finance, we need to set the right incentives first, otherwise it is merely a fight over who gets the spoils, without real benefit to the consumer, masquerading as a revolution to save us all.” 6. These concerns regarding the rate and manner in which Blockchain and DLT are affecting everyday financial transactions were echoed by a number of Governors during the CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking. “If we, as Central Bankers, were conservative in our approach we wouldn’t be doing mobile money. Adaptive flexibility isn’t a joke to us, we are doing a lot. But we want to see how things progress. We don’t want to overregulate these developments before they have time to blossom, but you do have to assess how much risk you are willing to go with. Each CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking meeting takes us closer to appreciating what technology can do. There’s no better way than putting in a serious fight before jumping on board. We don’t gamble. We seek assurance, and get a good sense of what works. (…) One bit of clarity that was important is that blockchain is a method rather than a solution. It is a means to an end, not an end in itself. As long as we remember there is some flexibility here, we will be in the right frame of mind.” (Governor of the Bank of Tanzania) “We don’t want to appear like Luddites, but we aren’t going to suddenly jump into a large project. We want to see a product that does the basic transfer from A to B and then we can go from there. Our worries around security are very high, understandably. (…) Frankly, we have been thinking about this issue for some time, but we ask for patience. We have our own process. We want technology and we know that technology helps us. But we have concerns that can’t be blown away.” (Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya) The Bank of England holds similar feelings regarding Blockchain and DLT developments. While stressing that the Bank is ‘technologically agnostic’, considering the stability of the system as a whole its priority, it created a FinTech Accelerator unit in 2016 to explore possible uses for the technology.5 5 For more on the FinTech Accelerator, see: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2016/914.aspx and: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Documents/fintech/fintechpocdlt.pdf and http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Pages/fintech/default.aspx 9 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Mitigating Systemic Risk 7. Understandably the Central Bank Governors were keen to minimise the systemic risk that can be triggered by potentially revolutionary developments in Financial Technology. The technology is appealing, but at the same time the risks must not be ignored. In order to truly understand what is involved it is important to be familiar with the wider context of Systemic Risk. Willke, Becker and Rostasy’s book Systemic Risk: The Myth of Rational Finance and the Crisis of Democracy provides an excellent introduction to the topic.6 8. With this in mind, it is useful to note recent work on the concept of De-risking, used to protect banks and financial institutions from fraud and money laundering. However, as Dr DeLisle Worrell, Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados, has pointed out, this can have dramatic effects on the individual customers and clients of banks employing de-risking strategies.7 Statistics, Data and Standards in the Digital Age 9. Standards are another key element for mitigating the risks mentioned above and to help ensure that cutting-edge Financial Technology has a positive effect on Financial Inclusion. The CPTM Smart Partnership Approach to Financial Inclusion has long emphasised the need for cooperative interaction between Central Banks and National Standards Bodies. By working together, they can develop the necessary Standards for FinTech. Data, based on a new approach to Statistics and Data Visualisation, is also crucial to this process. CPTM’s Technology and Innovation Inclusion Initiative also plays a key role in this process, including research on the impact of Supercomputers on Data Infrastructures to increase Financial Inclusion.8 When taken together, the above creates an Adaptive Flexibility Approach to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age. 6 https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7332823972 For more, see for example Governor Reports on De-risking at Financial Stability Board Meeting http://www.centralbank.org.bb/Portals/0/Governor%20Worrell%20Reports%20on%20Derisking%20at%20FSB%20Meeting.pdf 8The Emerging Digital Landscape and Supercomputing Dr Nkundwe Moses Mawasaga, Dar es Salaam Institute of Technology https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7457390525?_ga=1.57518307.810161049.1463494416 7 10 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Part I - Financial Inclusion and Interoperability Sharing Experiences: National Contexts of Financial Inclusion9 10. The 2016 Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking marked a significant turning point in the history of the Smart Partnership Movement and CPTM as a whole by providing new impetus for the interaction between the CPTM Smart Partners’ Inclusion Initiatives. The Think Tanking demonstrated the need for the promotion of active interconnection between the Inclusion Initiatives (see Annex III for more information on the CPTM Strategic Framework of Inclusion Initiatives) and their strategic value in the context of achieving National Visions. The timing of the event could not have been better, with the issues of FinTech and Blockchain really capturing the imagination of the global financial sector (e.g. Bank of International Settlement (BIS)) and beyond, and Blockchain technology being applied for governance and other uses. (Dr Mihaela Smith, CPTM CEO and Joint Dialogue Convener) 11. “At the 2015 CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking, we looked closely at the influence of mobile money and the importance of being able to access and use it, because access without use is not useful. Interoperability is important for this, so we should bear that in mind. Interoperability is the frontier at the moment and a key concern of ours. (Our discussions this year) could be a broader update (on Financial Inclusion initiatives in each of our respective countries), before becoming more specific as we progress the discussions later on.” (Governor of the Bank of Tanzania) 12. Tanzania - Access to mobile money in Tanzania now at ~80%. Usage of mobile money is at 67%, 17.2 million adults use it once every 30 days (which is the definition of ‘active usage’). Vodacom and Airtel are both very active. We have five mobile network operators (hereafter MNOs) in Tanzania, so it’s very competitive in Tanzania these days. Mobile wallet (cash in/cash out) interoperability is also very widespread. Person-to-person (P2P) transactions across networks are now also possible, whereas before all sorts of charges were involved in order to cross networks. It can now be done directly, cutting the transaction time and the cost of using an agent to cash out and send across. We in Tanzania are among the first ones to have achieved this, I believe. Rwanda are also doing this, I believe. In some countries there is a very dominant player, which makes interoperability less likely as they have a near monopoly on the customers. They are understandably keen to maintain this dominance. (Governor of the Bank of Tanzania) 13. Kenya - Kenya has certain historical specificities. We were the first to start with mobile payments. Now we have first-mover problems or challenges. We need to clean up an untidy field. Those who have come after us have benefited from our experience though I don’t think that we would do anything different if we had to do it all again. We have benefited from Financial Inclusion – indeed, the benefits are humungous. The Governor of Tanzania set out interoperability very well. Safaricom had a lot of agents out there and they want to keep it that way rather than allowing others to piggy back on their work. This is understandable. However, they don’t necessarily have the best technology but they Extracts from the 2016 CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking at the Hub, full document ‘CPTM Highlights & Insights on Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age’: https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7266421300 9 11 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. have the control. Superior technology does not always win out (e.g. Betamax vs VHS). We have to look to where we will be in 5 or 10 years, with benefits coming to the population using the services. We have to break the dominance of institutions and avoid monopolies. Negotiation is crucial, of course. These negotiations are long, there is no shortcut. You may wish to read Clausewitz’ ‘On War’ for insights on how to negotiate with big players. National Payments law is relevant, but these laws need to be developed progressively. We want to avoid laws that “make a mess”. The big players see the need for interoperability but getting agreement is challenging. We have a solution that is about to be launched. Maybe Tanzania is not entirely ahead on this one! They remain at the cutting edge of technology. We have a bit of a sibling rivalry with them. We have a system similar to SWIFT coming, which will facilitate the partnership of operators. Greater interoperability will bring the benefits of technology to the customer. Members, i.e. banks, will maintain the SWIFT technology. Other service providers can be Aggregators exist but there is still competition, and technology is being advanced way beyond what banks can develop. There are some issues which are barriers to new technologies, such as cost. On the non-exclusivity of agents, we are working on telephone towers, which is a big thing. This would allow multiple providers to use them, you can think of the towers as being like a kiosk. This approach is not necessarily a solution forever, but for the next 10-15 years. Security is our number one concern as bankers. Whatever solution we come up with has to be safe, not just cutting edge. Consumer protection needs to be paramount in our work. Consumers are not always that knowledgeable and so we need to provide the security. Some people have accounts but can’t read, they have to rely on the honesty of others. There is a lot of potential for fraud in these cases. The volume of fraud is not large but nuisance cost can be considerable. In Kenya we have the example of a local fruit seller borrowing the money in the morning. While waiting for the lights to change she can apply and receive the loan before setting off, therefore having near instant service and access to working capital. This is a huge development for socioeconomic movement. This also generates information about herself, giving her a credit rating and opening possibility of future larger loans. Our view is that we are moving to Financial Inclusion 2.0. We are experiencing diminishing returns so we need to change it up a bit. The pressure is on society to provide services for the lowest segment of our population. This democratising process needs to continue and accelerate. The only limiting factor is our innovation. (Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya) 14. Lesotho - In Lesotho the experience of mobile money is nowhere near the two giants who have spoken. We are just introducing it as part of a broader FI agenda. Our financial sector is much less developed. We started at a good time, when we needed to provide competition for the banking sector in our countries. Mobile money is especially important in our mountainous land, where banks were unwilling to travel across the country. We didn’t have legal structures in place but the telcos came and did their work. People are now using mobile money in even the most remote parts of country. We are still at a basic stage, transferring cash person-to-person (P2P) and for paying services and goods. We have only four commercial banks, and three of these are big South African banks who 12 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. are unwilling to go into the mountains to serve people there. Therefore, technology has come at a good time. Lesotho is also very dependent on remittances, so we are aiming to make this possible for Basotho people working in South Africa. Progress is being made and the next step is interoperability between the two providers in Lesotho, but also between MNOs and banking institutions. Technology is working for us and has helped bring phenomenal transformation in how people view the banking and the financial sector. Loans and savings are still to come. However, we are now number one for using their balance to buy airtime (normal), but you can now also transform airtime back into cash, which is unusual! We have achieved much but have a long road ahead of us as well. Consumer education and literacy is key. Many people don’t yet understand the implication of the contracts they are signing. Financial education will be integrated into the curriculum at primary schools from next year. Consumer protection needs to be increased as well. The influence of South Africa’s advanced market is not entirely beneficial. They have advanced dubious players who cross our porous borders and prey on our less sophisticated consumers. SA laws are not the same as in Lesotho, so signing with SA providers can leave them very vulnerable. Cybersecurity is a concern of ours as well. We want to digitise and so forth but we are concerned by the security implications of this. We have used development partners a lot to overcome our shortcoming in technological knowledge. One of the other things that keeps me awake at night is looking into what can be done to prevent people from falling into debt. We have put in place the Credit Reference Bureau, which is a registry for credit rating information. Many of our partners are very much in synch with us in this regard. Our staff are not necessarily familiar with payment systems, we need to work in partnership to rectify this. We are bringing in partners such as the World Bank/IMF to produce an implementation strategy/plan. Legislation needs to be modified to accommodate debts. Our Central Bank is in a constant state of catch-up with what consumers are doing. The biggest problem in the South, as elsewhere, is pyramid schemes. We are consolidating a number of sectors and strengthening regulation to help us catch up with others. (Executive Director of the Central Bank of Lesotho) 15. Zambia - Leapfrogging is certainly useful for us in Zambia. We are early in our Internet life and have been a bit slow to use the available platforms, but we are progressing. In 2002-3 we had a financial sector assessment by World Bank and IMF, to look at shortcomings, such as outdated laws, and potential solutions to these shortcomings. A financial sector working plan was developed in 2004 to help these issues, through which we established a baseline, and this plan continued for five years. In 2009, access was still only 6-7%. We then went into phase 2. Consumer Education is a really important aspect; democratisation of financial services is a very important goal, and laws are now being modernised post-2009. We established a non-profit clearing house, with surpluses ploughed back into system. A national SWIFT (switch) system has been established, and we said up front that institutions need to be working together. We remind them of this constantly. Whatever systems emerge must be able to talk to one another. One other challenge is consumers not repaying debts, but we are dealing with this. We have also established a credit reference system. Procurement issues have also occurred as well, and in 13 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. addition there have been further challenges as a result of the financial crisis, with few people able to access services due to fears over lending. Relevant legislative proposals have gone before Parliament but several are stuck there. Zambia has three MNOs, with a fourth coming. These MNOs have been brought in, with the regulator on board. Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) have been used and we are really trying to work together. They jealously guard their platforms and are reluctant to work together at times. While MOUs are not binding, they help to clarify what is expected of the signatories. We convinced the Government to use an e-voucher system for inputs for agriculture. This lowered transaction costs and reduced exclusion rates for many people, although there have been negative reactions from those now left out of the process. Financial services and big retail outlets such as Shoprite are also now able to provide money transfers for people. Airtime is also convertible into money, like in Lesotho. Cardless services using the mobile enables you to withdraw money from cash machines without a card. We are encouraging the use of card over cash for security reasons. Support from our colleagues is also invaluable. Some people think we’re moving too fast, but our colleagues with experience and know-how enable us to avoid the mistakes they made in the process. (Governor of the Bank of Zambia) 16. Uganda - Financial Inclusion is going well for us, although at a slower rate than our neighbours. We have slowly developed a number of services, including Islamic banking. We have done similar work to Kenya, although every mobile transaction in Uganda is taxed unlike in Kenya. This hinders transactions. The roles of the various institutions have also been clarified, and we are also attempting to bring the key players under one umbrella. Financial education is also very important to us. The financial committee is working hard on financial education and awareness across the country. Interoperability is an issue as we have a dominant player who does not want to alter how it works. They say: “You gave us a licence. Who are you to now start telling me what to do?” Negotiations have begun to change this. Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda have also developed an East Africa Payment System to facilitate movements across the borders, and cross-border transactions are now beginning. (Governor of the Bank of Uganda) 17. Malawi - A number of initiatives in Malawi have been championed. We have a number of new regulations in place, and we started by enhancing financial rules and regulations to enable mobile money, for example. We have a national SWITCH for interoperability, and all financial institutions have to disclose their charges. Resistance exists but we are determined. We also have introduced a mobile securities register to assist with FI for the ‘rural masses’. A consumer protection initiative has also been introduced to create an avenue for people to complain and seek help in financial inclusion matters. A Financial Inclusion strategy agenda is being developed by the Central Bank. There are also tax benefits/breaks for people importing ATMs and other such items that facilitate FI. We are now at 40+% of people in the financial system, compared with 20% previously. Financial literacy is also on curriculum. We used to do a full week but it was very expensive, although effective. We rely now on radio and TV to help spread the information related to this. (Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Malawi) 14 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Part II - Strategic Interdependencies for Financial Inclusion: Statistics, Data & Standards in a Digital Landscape Economic Statistics for Central Bank Governors An intervention on Special Insights on National Statistics from Professor Sir Charles Bean, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, and author of The Independent Review of UK Economic Statistics 18. Digital developments raise questions regarding GDP and GDP growth rates, and by extension the nature of conventional statistics. Conventional statistics need to be expanded to properly measure digital products. Digital products have zero, or near zero, marginal costs. These goods can be consumed by all. If I use it, you can still also use it, unlike a sandwich, say. How do they make money though? Sometimes they are financed by selling consumer information, and a monopoly makes this far more valuable. Are these services/products picked up by traditional statistics or monitors such as GDP? We are seeing disintermediation for market activities into the household sector. For example, travel agents are being sidelined by products such as Airbnb and online providers. You don’t need to be an expert to book a room. Travel guides have also been put aside for smartphone’s free services. This is registered as a fall in activity on national accounts, when really the consumer is benefiting. 19. The Internet and digital developments have made it possible for people to utilise skills and harness assets, for example through Uber or Airbnb. The household production and market production boundary is blurred - people can be both consumers and producers. Yet home production is normally ignored in compiling statistics. As Paul Samuelson observed: “If a man marries his housekeeper, GDP falls.” This feeds into the wider conversation about why productivity growth in big industrial economies has fallen [Hub note: traditional methodologies for estimating GDP do not account for many of the transactions that take place within the ‘sharing/collaborative economy’. Therefore, the current inability to capture such economic activities within traditional GDP figures may account, albeit only marginally, for what economists refer to as the ‘productivity puzzle’ – the gap between a country’s theoretical capacity to produce, and its actual sub-capacity production level. (See Chapter 3 in “The Independent Review of UK Economic Statistics”10). 20. We also have difficulties foreseeing the future, and there is doubt as to whether technological change has been widely adopted across all sections of society. Another reason it is hard to capture such income generation is that households may occasionally not declare this income… Official statistics are being challenged by digital developments. So one question would be, are conventional indicators such as GDP still relevant, and do they need redefining? This is possibly too extreme. It is better to think about how existing statistics are being distorted by these new factors. 10https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/507081/2904936_Bean_Review_Web_Acc essible.pdf 15 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. 21. The exploitation of Big Data is a key new development. The digital economy means that a huge amount of information is now available both in the public and private sector, for example scanner data from supermarkets on what consumers purchase, when and how. This is highly useful to statisticians, of course, but how best to do so? Stratification and disaggregation come into play. The Bank of England has a pretty poor view on transactions, despite being at the heart of one of the world’s financial capitals. We need to be using this vast flow of information better. The UK is behind Scandinavia, Holland and Canada on using a lot of this information. We rely on surveys and this is not enough; we cannot rely on surveys alone. 1.5 million paper forms processed a year is hugely inefficient. The legal framework in the UK is not very conducive to accessing this data. Data holders don’t have any obligation to hand over the data. Civil servants are also naturally cautious and don’t want to release data out of fears of it being leaked. One needs to have the correct skills and understanding to get an accurate picture from the data, as well as using it creatively. Access is not enough; you need to be able to process it. There is a huge amount of potential out there. 22. What about private sector information and data? One needs to be wary about using this information for regular statistics, as you can’t always rely on it being available. One-off studies can be done with this, but you need to be careful. How do we get hold of this data? Here, we think friendly persuasion is best. One could create a legal right of access, but businesses are not keen on being told to hand over their data and information. It is therefore wise to use whatever powers the Government might have with discretion. (…) It’s not that we necessarily want to redefine statistics, but rather to consider how they are being distorted by new developments. We are not very good at imagining the future, so it is hard to say what the next big developments will be. Data ownership and data security are indeed huge issues. Data Science and Central Banks as Data Users An intervention on Data Science from Professor David Hand, Data Science Institute Imperial College London 23. I would like to make three general points regarding Data: Point one is speed of movement. Things are moving fast with data science and banking. But one mistake is that people think data science has plateaued. Computer infrastructure is still improving, so in fact we are on the foothills of a mountain, rather than a plateau. The second point is the issue of data quality, and this is very important to what we’re talking about. It can be important at a low level, such as problems with missing datasets, badly recorded data, missing data, and so on – but at least these are “known unknowns”, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld. But at the higher level, you can have distorted samples, and the significance of this is that machine learning, for example, can go wrong. People who work in data mining and machine learning are not desensitised to this. The third point relates to ethical issues on data, such as privacy, confidentiality, security, and the question of ownership – does an individual own their data? 24. I’ve spent a long time working in the private sector advising on whether credit cards should be given to customers, etc. Credit scoring models are now highly developed and very good. In retail, you have millions of customers – it’s a great playground for a statistician. The world of big data is not new. 16 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Earlier we mentioned the emergence of new business models and products that can be built on new data technologies. Within this context scientists refer to the ‘Three Vs.’ The first V is Volume, for example how many customers there are, how many transactions, and so on. The second V is Variety; modern datasets now come in the forms of images and words, as well as traditional forms. These modern datasets are sometimes called ‘unstructured datasets’. The third V is Velocity; data just keeps on coming and coming – there are around a billion transactions a year per bank. Statisticians used to get datasets and spend three months analysing them before coming up with an answer. But with anti-corruption efforts, for example, the answer has to come now, not in three months. There could also be a fourth V, which is veracity. How good is the data, and how trustworthy is it for helping you answer your question? I believe the term ‘Big Data’ is inaccurate. My guess is that most discoveries will be made using small datasets – taking a big dataset and chopping it up! The Role of National Statistics and the Benefits for Central Banks 25. In National Statistics Offices [hereafter NSOs], we have to change the way we do things. We concentrate more on data generation. NSOs divert attention to provide services for users. Who is poor, for example? Normally, data is for evidence-based planning. After implementing a plan, you need to show what you have achieved. Governors want to see that financial inclusion efforts are working, and the economy is working. Mobile data – is this really being used? What is the role of NSOs? There is a paradigm shift from using traditional sources of data to modern sources. Now, we measure the economy with more data, using more data sources. This is what the data revolution is. But do the NSOs have the capacity for this? 26. The SDGs are saying ‘leave nobody behind, leverage technology’. Is the same happening with NSOs? Embracing rather than resisting technology? Of course, there are limitations; GDP measurements have a lot of limitations, for example. Financial Services measuring is very difficult, it’s not like manufacturing. NSOs can’t work in isolation; we need to work with stakeholders, but what about the misuse of statistics? Measurement is important, we need standards and principles. In Tanzania, we have a National Statistics Act – one can’t just provide incorrect facts. We have to adhere to the legal framework before you say anything. Even in the open data arena, this is important. There is still a need to hold people accountable. 27. The next issue is technology and innovations. In our NSO we are saying that the data revolution is our saviour – it will fill gaps in our knowledge. But we need to ensure we are using technologies that will cut down costs. We are now heading towards a paperless world. In Tanzania, we are trying to come up with an e-population system. This will be administered from house to house. We’ll be able to capture transfers of money. Once we have this, the Governor will be able to know who is benefitting from financial services, and the Minister for Education will know about truancy. We think we will be able to publish data on a monthly basis rather than quarterly, if the cost can be lowered. Another issue is that of the financial crisis of 2008. No single country had data that was able to predict this. In 2014, we said that Big Data will assist policy makers to capture what is happening, 17 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. so capacity-building is important for this. (Dr Albina Chuwa, Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics) 28. There is a saying that “behind disaggregated data, there is a person.” If we delete some data, we are in effect deleting a person. Somehow, there has been collaboration between NSOs and central banks in some areas. But there still needs to be more collaboration with Ministries of Finance, Central Banks and NSOs. FinScope surveys suggest that NSDSs [National Strategies for the Development of Statistics] need to be developed. (Mr Shelton Kanyanda, OECD, Paris 21) 29. Also, there is a problem of prioritisation in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals – countries are overwhelmed by the SGDs. So we need to prioritise – what do we want to achieve in the next 5 years? A month ago, we had a workshop on sub-national statistics systems. We need to work with sectors on the ground, for example with minister of health, mobile phone networks and so on, to get them integrated into the statistics framework. With the current inconsistent approach, we don’t generate the knowledge that we need. Looking at Charlie Bean’s report and the issue of technology, most NSOs are looking to use technology. In our 2010 census, a good number of NSOs used scanning, but the data collection was manned. So in 2020, we are hoping to have tablets for data collection, and therefore you don’t need scanning – it’s a direct feed. But econ statistics aren’t using technology, either because they are in different formats, or other reasons. So this is becoming a challenge. How can we help institutions move towards technology? 30. Also on the issue of GDP, this figure is not accurate because things such as military costs are not accessible to NSOs. Other NSOs may do it, but this means there is therefore a lack of consistency across countries by which to compare progress towards SDG indicators. At the March 2015 SDG meeting, 213 indicators were established. Every country was talking about national ownership and the need for a clear indicator framework. With 169 targets, there are some targets that link with others, and there are some indicators that link with others. The 213 indicators were classified into groups: where methodology is known and metadata is available, and where methodology not well known and work needs to be done. The World Bank is helping with this. These are grey indicators – goals 15 and 17, in particular [#15: sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, halt and reverse land degradation, and halt biodiversity loss. #17: revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.] Now this is about integrating, for example, natural resources into GDP. What we want to see is if Governors will continue to put money into statistics. Luckily for Tanzania, Benno is a champion of our NSO. So you find a lot of politics, but essentially the main driver is the country itself, and the need to get people on-board in the country. (Dr Chuwa) 18 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Moving Forward within a new CPTM Inclusion Initiative involving National Statistics Offices We should promote bottom-up approaches in the aggregation of data, and we should promote top-down approaches in the disaggregation of data. This is how we are going to find the value of data; Data visualisation should be encouraged, as that is the methods that enables the ordinary citizen or individuals to understand the meaning of available statistics. We should encourage the presentation of data and statistics in a way that is understandable to ordinary people – the “re-humanising of data and statistics”; We should avoid a mismatch of statistics between government entities, which cause data inconsistencies; For statistics to be used within government in a consistent manner, we should encourage greater interconnectivity across government entities; For the purpose of accurate and timely data provision, the independence of National Statistics Offices should be enshrined within an enforceable legal framework; In pursuing a development agenda, there should be proactive use of data in the process of creating development roadmaps; Countries should create baseline data in order to improve the usage of data; There should be an emphasis on the usefulness of statistics at the national level; There should be new entities included in the national statistics framework, for example a Parliamentary Committee on Statistics that can assist the process of improving the utilisation of statistics. Standards, FinTech and Emerging ISO Standards for Blockchain Technology 31. Central Banking is now more and more dependent on Quality and Standards related to Financial Services, National Statistics and new FinTech developments. Alan Bryden, former Secretary-General of the International Standards Organisation (ISO) and Joint Convener of the CPTM Quality & Standards Inclusion Initiative, wanted to remind you about the strategic value of National Standards Bureaus for the Financial Inclusion sector, particularly in relation to the following three current developments: The development of the ISO 12812 series on mobile financial services The soon to be finalized ISO 37001 standard on anti-bribery management systems The proposal by Standards Australia currently under discussion to create an ISO TC on blockchain standards ISO/TC 68 has published to date 51 International Standards addressing challenges in the field of interoperability, straight-through processing (STP), security of financial messaging and transactions, including cryptogrammic key management practices. The PIN code concept (ISO 9564 series), the IBAN code (ISO 13616), the BIC code (ISO 9362), the currency codes (ISO 4217), the ISIN code (ISO 6166) and the most recent and the fast growing ISO 20022 (universal messaging scheme for the financial industry) are emblematic examples. ISO 17442 (Legal Entity 19 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Identifier (LEI) code) is one recent example of an ISO standard of particular relevance to Central Banks. 32. Smart Partner Daniele Gerundino, Director of Research and Education at the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), added that ISO is actually developing a standard – ISO 37001 – for anti-bribery management systems, which should be published later this year. The experience of ISO/TC 68, the LEI (Legal Entity Identifier) standard is particularly interesting and important, as an exemplary case of cooperation between standardizers and regulators, in a field (financial services) where diffidence and misunderstandings have not been uncommon.” “Just consider that the two communities use the word “standard” in a rather different way. For example, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) defines "standards" as something that "set out what are widely accepted as good principles, practices, or guidelines in a given area". The FSB has identified, inter alia, a list of “Key Standards for Sound Financial Systems" which cover areas such as: Financial Regulation and Supervision, Macroeconomic Policy and Data Transparency, Institutional and Market Infrastructure. Something very different from the “standards” published by ISO – consensus-based documents of a voluntary nature!” 33. Over the past two years, the British Standards Institution (BSI) have been heavily involved with both our Quality & Standards, and Financial Inclusion, Initiatives, through regular updates on FinTech and blockchain technology, for example the newly-published PAS 212: Automatic Resource Discovery for the Internet of Things – A Specification, which was jointly published/launched at the June 2016 Hypercat Summit. 34. Since Central Banks worldwide have recently been focusing on understanding the application of blockchain technology, CPTM, on behalf of the Quality & Standards Inclusion Initiative, approached Standards Australia in relation to their announced intention to lead, under the auspices of ISO, a new field of technical activity on ‘Blockchain and Electronic Distributed Ledger Technology’, with a view to producing a standard for these technologies in the future. 35. Standards Australia’s CEO, Dr Bronwyn Evans, forwarded a dedicated Message for CPTM’s Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking and for the CPTM Quality & Standards Inclusion Initiative, inviting them to follow closely these developments, and participate in the making of this standard. This is an opportunity for developing countries to be standard makers, not standard takers. The transcript of the message follows below. “On behalf of Standards Australia I would like to thank the Commonwealth Partnership for Technology Management and Chief Executive Dr Mihaela Smith for the opportunity to deliver this video message on Standards Australia’s Blockchain standards initiative. Today, Blockchain technology represents one of the big opportunities for asset movement and transaction efficiencies. Globally, the interest in blockchain is increasing with both governments and industry exploring means to adopt and use blockchain systems. Blockchain is a digital platform that records and verifies transactions in a public and secure manner. This decentralised, cryptography-based solution has the potential to redefine transactions by removing the need for intermediaries Whilst the technology is still an emerging one, its applications can already be foreseen across the financial services sector; consumer products and services; health; government; 20 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. minerals and precious stones; real estate; internet of things; and business - and our industry as well – technical publishing. In March 2016, Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison published an opinion on how fintech will enable the successful transition of the Australian economy. Referring to the role of blockchain technology, Treasurer Morrison wrote: “The frictionless operation of fintech innovations such as blockchain and digital currencies are generating new value streams not just in financial services but across the economy.” In light of strong government and industry interest, Standards Australia has already consulted with the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as a number of other key financial regulators including the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority, the Treasury and the Commonwealth Department of Industry Innovation and Science. Our discussions with these key agencies have focussed on the role of international blockchain standards in complementing regulation to support a changing economy. As with any emerging technology, the freedom for blockchain developers to be innovative and for vendors to be competitive, is critical! And Standards are an appropriate element of the innovation ecosystem. For this reason Standards Australia recently submitted a proposal for the International Organization for Standardization - ISO - to consider developing standards to support blockchain technology. This proposal for a New Field of Technical Activity at ISO seeks to support both innovation and competition. Blockchain standards would potentially cover topics including interoperability, terminology, privacy, security and auditing. Together with regulation, these standards have a critical role to play in establishing market confidence to support the roll out of blockchain technology. The proposal as well as a Standards Australia information sheet on the applications of blockchain technology are available to you through the Commonwealth Partnership for Technology Management secretariat. You may ask why ISO should be interested in blockchain technology. ISO is one of three International Standards development organisations. It is an independent, non-governmental international organisation with a membership of 161 national standards bodies. Critically, at ISO every member nation has an equal opportunity to participate and contribute to developing blockchain standards. Through this model of inclusion, ISO brings together experts to share knowledge and develop voluntary, consensus-based, market relevant International Standards. The ISO ‘Blockchain and electronic distributed ledger technologies’ proposal is currently in a period of consultation where all 161 members of the ISO are considering the merits of the proposal and whether they are in a position to support and participate in the work if it is approved. As stakeholders of blockchain technology, each of you has an opportunity to work with the National Standards Bodies in your respective countries and lend your support to the ISO Blockchain standards initiative. Your interest and support for the proposal through your 21 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. National Standards Body will be a critical component in the ISO’s assessment and decision on the blockchain standard proposal which is expected in July 2016. We have passed on further information regarding the blockchain standards initiative as well as Standards Australia contact details to the Commonwealth Partnership for Technology Management secretariat, so contact us if you’d like to find out more. Conclusion - With so much happening around blockchain there is a lot to be excited about. But let me be clear there is still much to do for the ISO. We understand that the work we do, and indeed all National Standards Bodies, is critical to improving global efficiencies and we are committed to playing our part in establishing market confidence for blockchain technology. At the same time, our blockchain standards initiative will only be more effective and impactful with your participation. We hope that you will bring your knowledge, influence and capabilities to our international blockchain standards initiative. Thank you.” (Dr Bronwyn Evans, CEO Standards Australia ) https://www.dropbox.com/s/h8lq9954kt7hgyb/StandardsAus-blockchain-message.mp4.zip?dl=0 36. This is a most urgent area. Without standards we are groping around in the dark. Blockchain is everywhere and there is a lot of potentially, but not much understanding. We have to be careful to really understand what we are dealing with and how it can be applied in different contexts. Security is a great concern. Technology can’t be the only thing, no one wants to get stuck as the first mover and then be overtaken by better technology. The technology should be upgradeable. (Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya) 22 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Part III - Special Focus on Blockchain: A New Digital Disrupter and the effect on Financial Services 37. Following the 2016 CPTM Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking, there was a great deal of interest in Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). In order to help clarify a number of questions surrounding Blockchain and DLT, CPTM have worked closely with Mr Mike Brookbanks, FBCS, FIET, CENG, Visiting Fellow Surrey Centre for the Digital Economy, University of Surrey11, on the following piece covering the key issues of: What is Blockchain? What can Blockchain do? What are the problems? Risk, Regulation and Governance; Systemic Risk; Standards (Technical and Legal) and Governance of Blockchain Know Your Client (KYC); What is the role of Central Banks and Regulators? What is Blockchain? 38. Over the past seven years, Blockchain and DLT, in numerous forms including Bitcoin, have acted as a new disrupter to Financial Services. These in turn have an impact on the Central Bankers in terms of risk and associated benefits. This brief considers the impact of the Blockchain environments and technology on Financial Services and related Institutions, as well as the business value and systemic and operational risk changes this may generate. The brief will highlight the areas that the Central Banks should consider as these Financial Institutions drive the implementation of Blockchain environments/technology over the next few years, using permissioned Blockchain as a new financial market infrastructure. (For Definitions of key terms please see Annex I) Central Banks have developed in different ways and there are a number of varying roles built up from their origins. The Central Banks are primarily an agency for monetary policy. They have important financial stability functions, driving financial momentum, and these become more prominent during times of financial turmoil or major change. The structure of these roles, the responsibilities given, and the range of other functions and objectives allocated vary between countries12. Central Banks will also provide a mix of banking supervision functions to oversee banks (through required balance sheet ratios and other directives) and underpinning payment/settlement system. In most countries they also control, drive, or influence the regulatory policy locally and internationally; for example, providing links to the Bank of International Settlement (BIS), the Prudential Standards Authority and a number of Financial Services Regulatory bodies. 11 Mike Brookbanks is a Visiting Fellow with the Centre for the Digital Economy based at the University of Surrey. He has 26 years’ experience of developing, leading and delivering predominately Business, IT Re-engineering and IT Service Delivery Transformation engagements. The majority of his experience has been spent advising clients across the Financial Services sector; although he has recent experience in the Public Sector (Central Government, Education, Local Government and Health); whilst working with IBM. Mike is a Fellow of Institute of Engineering and of the British Computing Society. Mike is published, having co-authored a book on Operational Risk, and has presented at conferences in the UK on IT Optimisation, Operational Risk, IT Service Management and Cloud Sourcing; and has had a number of patents published. Contact: [email protected] 12. For more info on the roles and objectives of modern Central Banks see http://www.bis.org/publ/othp04_2.pdf 23 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. What can Blockchain do? What are the problems? 39. Currently Financial Institutions are realizing that Blockchain and DLT represents a powerful combination of financial and technological innovation and a potent disrupter that will change today's financial world and could make huge swathes of the current industry redundant. Blockchain and DLT is a unique combination of protocols and technologies, evolving rapidly along divergent paths. It potentially has the transformative ability to provide a 'data backbone' or information layer for many financial applications13 Blockchain combines several technologies to create a distributed, consensus driven database with four key technical features. It is the combination of these features – rather than any of the individual elements – that is novel. These are: Distribution - Blockchain does not rely on a single centralised record. It is a shared ledger, visible to every node or participant; Security - the use of public/private key cryptography or asymmetric cryptography makes it possible for Blockchain data to be public, yet secure; Immutability - the process by which data is added to Blockchains prevents subsequent tampering or amendment; Trust - a consensus mechanism means that Blockchain data is a trusted, mutually agreed record. Current applications demonstrate how Blockchains can already perform such a wide variety of functions (for example; Payments, Registers of ownership and the ability to execute rulesbased transactions using 'smart contracts'). In addition, the way Blockchain has developed makes it highly adaptable. Variations on the core concept are multiplying fast at the hands of Fin Techs, financial institutions and other organisations. Blockchain will drive a revolution within Financial Services operating models and client services. Industry-wide transformation is very possible, although identifying optimal use cases is vital, but challenging given Blockchain’s rapid evolution. Practicality poses a real obstacle to scaling Blockchain; there could be cultural, financial, regulatory and reputational hurdles too. 40. The Central Banks and Regulators need to consider that Blockchain and DLT is more than a technology, it will disrupt business processes, governance and regulation (legal and technical). It has the potential to introduce new ‘black swans’ that can have a dramatic impact on Systemic Risk. As stated below much of the application of Blockchain today is based on improving the efficiency of current established process within Financial Services. It is clear that a different approach needs to be considered by the Central Banks and their associated regulators. Foresight exercises are potential options for this. A series of “Visionarios” could be run, using the premise that Blockchain and DLT will become a technical and legal standard and then to consider how the business process would be built around the DLT. So for example, build up the business process for foreign exchange based on the standard of the DLT; review who will be the counterparties; review the intermediaries/aggregators required; who will need to view the state or the DLT? What reporting/intervention/control is required by the Central 13 See http://www.euromoneyseminars.com/articles/3562064/getting-value-from-blockchain.html 24 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Banks? What would be the role of central regulators? What should the business process be, given the desire for instantaneous exchange? How will the DLT scale?14 There is the opportunity for the Central Banks to become the aggregator of Blockchains and DLT’s for Financial Services. Collaboration between Central Banks would create a network of aggregated Blockchains. 41. While Financial institutions have a hugely valuable opportunity to leverage this new and distinctive technology for their clients' and their own benefits, understanding what Blockchain can do is much more important than understanding how it works. For Financial institutions, the DLT delivers the following "outcome characteristics": Single version of the truth - Blockchain provides a tamperproof, mutually agreed record that is visible to all participants, without the bottlenecks of centralised networks; Resilience - Distribution, cryptography and consensus mean that Blockchains can be secured against infrastructure failure, cyber-attack and data corruption; Reliability - Immutability and the consensus mechanism mean that Blockchain data can be trusted by all users It is these characteristics, not the technology itself, which gives Blockchain so many compelling applications across Financial Services. The strengths of Blockchain – trust, security, reliability, accuracy – are all areas where financial institutions have been on the defensive over the past decade. So for banks and other intermediaries, Blockchain offers Financial Institutions a chance to reclaim their central position in the financial infrastructure. At the same time, Blockchain gives non-financial challengers a chance to circumvent barriers to entry and attack incumbents. 42. The Blockchain environments/technology are being developed internationally, across country borders and, therefore, the impact/effect will be seen by all economies. The current implementations are predominately focused on improving the Financial Services value chain and operational efficiencies by: reducing intermediaries, (disintermediation) simplifying payments, reducing counterparty risk, removing complexity, improving transparency. (For further background information click here and see chapter on Reducing intermediaries, simplifying payments, reducing counterparty risk, removing complexity, improving transparency ) The DLT environment provides simplification and transparency for the Financial Services within a country and across borders. The transparency of transactions and reporting will also be improved through real-time visualisation of the “current state”, providing Central Banks with a current view of the state of the financial systems. This transparency and reporting will also provide insight and reduce the threat from fraud and money laundering internally and externally. By design, in a DLT environment, the information recorded on the ledgers is made public to the participants of the network, or at least to ‘permissioned’ participants. This information typically comprises the history of the transactions and the balance of cash and assets held on accounts. The 14 For more information on Foresight and Visionarios, please see the recent Briefing on The CPTM Smart Partnership Think Tanking on National Visioning and Foresight: Sharing Experiences with Professor Sheila Ronis https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7306435792 25 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. very nature of the development of DLT environment’s and the way they are implemented will also mean that the barriers to entry would be reduced. This would therefore mean that the Central Banking function would need to consider how to manage the monetary policy and financial stability where the ‘deposits’ would be in the form of virtual currency. This will pose a number of challenges for Central Banks, including how to control money supply when the country’s currency is outside the border “within a virtual economy” potentially controlled by a third party, as well as how to link back to Fiat currency. 43. Aligned to this is clearly the opportunity to expand the Financial Systems (banking) across the economies with new models of peer to peer financing. This will generate in-country lending and intra country lending scheme. The deployment of the DLT could raise fair competition issues. For example, the supporters of a DLT network could prevent new ‘participants’ from joining or impose such conditions that it becomes economically unviable for new members to join the network. A monopoly-like situation could emerge, with possible negative consequences on the cost and the quality of the services. It might be difficult to establish competitive ledgers or to ensure the interoperability between ledgers, thus negatively impacting the competitive nature of markets. As articulated, common settlement systems will be changed. For example, foreign exchange will transform DTCC (The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation), CLS (Continuous Linked Settlement) and SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). The introduction of DLT technology will shorten the settlement cycle of the transactions, which means that each party would be exposed for a shorter period of time to the risk of default of the other party. It is even argued that the DLT may eliminate the counterparty risk of certain transactions and remove the need for Central Counterparty (CCP) clearing because the settlement could be almost instantaneous. 44. It has become clear through the research that the current focus is on improving the supply chain, automating process and removing manual gaps, using the technology to reduce operational risk, improve transparency and reporting. Today, the truly innovative application of DLT has not become openly available; it is currently making things better rather than providing truly disruptive change. The disruptive change to Financial Services will not come directly from the originators of the technology – it will come from mass adoption of the use of the DLT environment by users. As seen in the development of the Internet, major disruptive business process and models took a number of years to become established and profitable. So there is the opportunity for the CCP to become, alongside Central Banks and Regulators, the Central Aggregators of Blockchains. 26 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Risk, Regulation and Governance 45. The nature of the development of DLT environment suggests that while the Operational Risk will reduce locally, the Systemic Risk will be enhanced or changed. There are benefits in reducing Operational Risk15 within the Financial System for the permissioned Blockchain DLT. (For further background information click here and see chapter on Systemic and Operational Risk) The DLTs are built around high availability, integrity and view consistency – with complex consensus protocols that are employed to ensure that every ‘permissioned’ participant has a consistent view. The very nature of the distributed, networked Blockchain ensures there would be a continuously available view of the Distributed Ledger, that points of failure are removed and a ‘single view of the truth’ is always available. This also ensures that there is the ability to ‘recover’ to a point in time; to see the history of the transactions within the Blockchain. The shared nature of the Distributed Ledgers may mitigate the risk that a cyber-attack directed to a single point brings down the entire network as might be the case with the current systems. Having said this, a flaw in the system could have wider consequences; in that an error or attack can easily cause complete failure. Therefore, there is a need for a common view or vision across the Central Banks, considering the benefits, reducing operational risk, but also recognising the change in systemic risk. 46. The Central Banks and country regulators need to consider how the Blockchain - DLT would fit into the existing regulatory framework. This regulatory framework needs to cover legal, process and technical standard for both Operations and Systemic Risk. The current regulatory framework for Operational Risk as detailed in the Bank of International Settlements Principles for the Sound Management of Operational Risk16 would need to be extended to consider the full effect of Blockchain - DLT. Supervising a DLT ‘network’ might be more complex than supervising current central market infrastructures, in particular considering that different nodes might be established in different jurisdictions and subject to different privacy, insolvency and other requirements. 47. The key common Financial Services regulations likely to apply, and how these would reflect in terms of requirements for the participants to the DLT network, need to be considered. Legal issues, such as the legality and enforceability of the records kept on the DLT, also need to be carefully considered. Differences in laws across countries may also interfere with a wide deployment of the DLT across Financial Services. Therefore, Central Banks and Regulators need to collaborate and consider how the legal, process and technical standards will need to change and adapt with regard to Systemic Risk, Operational Risk and the associated standards and governance. 15 Operational Risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. This definition includes legal risk, but excludes strategic and reputational risk. 16 Principles for the Sound Management of Operational Risk http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs195.pdf 27 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Systemic Risk 48. The Systemic Risk17 will be changed - improved in some areas, affected in others. For example, with the unique reference system and more automated and harmonised processes across participants, asset classes, the DLT could contribute to herding behaviour and increase market volatility in times of stress. It could also increase the interconnectedness between market participants, by making it easier for them to interact with one another, which could increase the spreading of shocks. The DLT could also lead to risk accumulating in less regulated segments of the markets. Finally, it could boost certain market segments where the activity is currently hindered by cumbersome post-trading processes and create new pockets of risks in financial markets. Some of the risks, which may exist in the current market infrastructure already, could potentially be heightened if the DLT was to be deployed widely. 49. Implementation of DLT would help mitigate Operational risks, by increasing the automation of back office processes and reducing the potential for human errors. However, a glitch or a failure in the system could have far-reaching consequences with regards Systemic Risk. Indeed, because market participants would rely on the same system and the same processes, which would be largely automated, the need for checks and balances might be reduced. While this would be largely beneficial, it could leave the system unduly exposed in case of anomaly and the potential for increased Systemic Risk. Similarly, the use of smart contracts should in principle reduce the likelihood of errors, e.g., by automating the processing of corporate actions, but could also create additional risks in the absence of adequate controls, e.g., if the coding is erroneous. In other words, the occurrence of errors might be lower, but their impact could be higher. Unless adequate controls are in place, some participants to the network could also unduly exploit the information recorded on the network, e.g., recent trades made by competitors or the level of their inventories, to front-run them or manipulate the market. The lower the privacy level of the network or the lower the safeguards attached to it, the higher the risks would be. Standards and Governance of Blockchain 50. Common standards (legal and technical) are required to ensure that the DLT does not add another layer of complexity to Financial Services markets, because of the use of complex encryption techniques. The latter could have negative implications from a risk management or oversight perspective. Indeed, while the DLT should in principle enhance the traceability of transactions and transparency, the encryption of the information could make it harder to disentangle it and to process it, at least in the short term. This could effectively render supervisory work more challenging. DLT standards and governance need to be introduced in each country to control and manage the adoption within the country and between countries.18 17 Systemic Risk is defined as the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market, as opposed to risk associated with any one individual entity, group or component of a system, that can be contained therein without harming the entire system. 18 In the context of standards, it is worth noting the additional information from Professor Michael Mainelli (Z/Yen) Between July and October 2015, Z/Yen led a research consortium (including PwC, a global accountancy firm, Suncorp, an Australian insurance company, and DueDil, a UK corporate credit referencing company) to build and evaluate a set of distributed ledgers de novo. We were delighted that the States of Alderney participated in that project as a regulatory observer. InterChainZ demonstrated it was indeed possible to build distributed ledgers that can store, exchange, and keep records of any kind. We have demonstrated an interface for tasks including selection & storage of documents, document encryption, sharing keys, viewing the InterChainZ transactions, and viewing the InterChainZ contents subject to encrypted 28 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Technical Standards 51. During the 2016 CPTM Think Tanking of Central Bank Governors, Standards Australia informed the Governors that they had submitted a proposal for a first Blockchain standard to the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 19 with reference to leveraging pre-existing standards such as ISO 20022. This would be a technical standard, rather than a governance/regulatory standard. (For further background information click here and see chapter on Systemic and Operational Risk) As noted in the Financial Times, regulators have been wary of the technology, warning of its potential vulnerability to fraud or to undermining financial stability. The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), stated that “Blockchain has got some potentially interesting applications and we are talking to firms thinking about how to apply that to financial services and how it could benefit consumers or indeed make the business of compliance easier ” said Chris Woolard, the FCA’s director of strategy and competition. 20 Legal Standards 52. The Central Banks need to consider developing a permission-based framework for Blockchain - DLT. This would require rules to approve/reject authorised participants. Factors that may be worth considering when designing these rules may include minimum capital requirements, conduct of business rules and risk management processes. Also, there may be a trade-off between accepting many participants at the risk of making the system unduly complex and being excessively selective at the risk of limiting the scope of the network. In addition to the legal and technical aspects of Standards, we should also take into account the need for Standards to cover business processes.21 limits. The interface was deliberately simple, and served the purpose of demonstrating how distributed ledgers work in practice. Z/Yen believe this is an appropriate time to engage further with regulators from the Jersey, Isle of Man, Ireland, and other jurisdictions, as well as PwC and other private sector organisations, to evaluate the feasibility of building standards for financial and other services that will be supported by MDLs. Such services already include timestamping, archiving, regulatory reporting, deal rooms, asset transfer, asset maintenance, identity, wholesale payments, contract execution, and, of course, cryptocurrencies. Several jurisdictions aspire to be the “standards regulators” for mutual distributed ledgers in future and require standards to underpin such a role. This regulation would be on a federal basis, especially where it is determined that certain standards are mandatory, and that certain standards require some mandatory form of accreditation or certification. Such a federal basis may well involve the ISO accreditation/certification system, i.e. a voluntary standards market. Private sector participants may, in future, be ‘standards certifiers’, but that is beyond the scope of this study. Standards are likely to be of two types (a) governance, and (b) technical fit for purpose and performance standards (as opposed to technical ‘how to’ standards). External resources, i.e. Z/Yen, are being used to accelerate this aspiration and help increase the skills of the jurisdiction to deliver this aspiration. We recognised that the medium to long-term objective is for the islands to deliver regulation themselves on a federal basis. The project should promote jurisdictions equally throughout. The current project is due to report October. 19 See http://www.standards.org.au/OurOrganisation/News/Documents/Media%20Release%20%20International%20Blockchain%20Standard%20-%2014%20April%202016.pdf and the Video Message from Standards Australia on Blockchain https://www.dropbox.com/s/h8lq9954kt7hgyb/StandardsAus-blockchain-message.mp4.zip?dl=0 20 See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8ab3c696-6634-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227.html#ixzz4I8xseJTG 21 It should be noted that not everyone is convinced of the pressing need to develop standards for blockchain. See for example, William Mougayar’s recent article for the CoinDesk website. Let's start by stating the obvious – Warnings about the need for blockchain standards are premature and alarmist. It's too early to claim that a lack of standards is hurting blockchain technology adoption, or to call for standards bodies like the International Standards Organization (ISO) to get involved and define what they should be. (Though, there are already groups doing this). The topic of blockchain standards is complicated, and it extends beyond just seeing it as an interoperability challenge. This is because blockchain standards can be divided into three interrelated vectors, comprised of technical, business and legal considerations. 29 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. The rules to govern the interactions between participants, both ‘permissioned’ and ‘nonpermissioned’ will be necessary. These rules would need to address many and potentially complex issues. Examples include the liabilities of the respective participants, including in case of fraud or error, correction mechanisms and penalties in case of infringement to the rules, the intellectual property attached to the technology or the territoriality of the law likely to apply to the network. (For further background information click here and see chapter on Benefits relating to Reduced Fraud, Improved KYC and Replicated/Permissioned Data) An agreement between the participants on their remuneration model would also be needed. Furthermore, the governance framework should provide clarity on the entity or group of entities that would be held liable for the activities of the network vis-à-vis third parties, in particular local regulators and customers. Know Your Client (KYC) 53. It seems that the DLT could be used to store and share private information on clients, e.g. for KYC procedure purposes. The question then arises as to how the public nature of the ledger, which is embedded in the technology, might combine with the need to preserve the anonymity and privacy of some of the information recorded in the ledger. The use of encryption identifiers (i.e. private keys) instead of names could provide some level of privacy, e.g. the exact identity of a party to a transaction or the name of an account holder could remain unknown to most participants. Yet, the operation of those private keys would need to be carefully designed and controlled. Different levels of access to the network, depending on the exact nature and scope of the participant, might also be needed. There are associated risks in that Private/public keys might be lost or stolen and used fraudulently to record fictitious transactions. In the absence of a sufficiently robust governance framework, dishonest nodes might also take control of the network, even temporarily, and alter the consensus process. The use of these keys could make it easier to conceal identities and to hide the history of transactions, thereby increasing the risk of money laundering and terrorist financing activities. What is the role of Central Banks and Regulators? 54. Currently Financial Institutions are realizing that Blockchain itself represents a powerful combination of financial and technological innovation; a disrupter that will change today's financial world and make huge swathes of the current industry redundant. Central Banks need to understand that Blockchain as a disrupter will not disappear, that while there is much market hype around this, the final uses will develop in time. The risk is that a use is taken up by the population, without institutional control or oversight. 55. This transformation/adaptation process cannot be driven by the Financial Institution, third party technology providers, new entrants and collaborations. What is clear is that Central Banks and regulators need to consider Blockchain more than a technology, it will disrupt business process, governance, regulation (legal and technical). It has the potential to introduce new ‘black swans’ that can dramatically impact on Systemic Risk. If you perceive the blockchain as a technology, then you will implement it as a technology. If you see it as a business change enabler, then you will think about business processes. If you discern the legal implications, you will be emboldened by its new governance characteristics. http://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-standards-alarmist/ 30 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. 56. Current emerging applications demonstrate how Blockchains can already perform a wide variety of functions (for example; Payments, Registers of ownership and the ability to execute rules-based transactions using 'smart contracts'). In addition, the Open-source nature of Blockchain makes it highly adaptable; although the very nature of this introduces additional Operational Risk, when considered by Central Banks and Regulators. Applications are diverging rapidly as developers modify one or more elements of previous versions. 57. Financial institutions see a number of "outcome characteristics" as being: a single version of the truth, resilience and reliability. The Central Banks need to consider these outcome characteristics and determine how they can be used – to improve governance, supervision and regulation. There is an opportunity for the Central Banks to become the aggregator of Blockchains and DLT’s for Financial Services. Collaboration between Central Banks would create a network of aggregated Blockchains. 58. Central Banks and Regulators need to consider the various uses-cases that are being proposed for Blockchains within Financial Institutions. Blockchain is providing a long overdue stimulus for industry-wide co-operation on technology. Without the management by the Central Banks and Regulators, co-operation between suppliers, clients and peers will be a challenge as each are traditionally reluctant to share intellectual property, agreeing interoperability protocols. Creativity and imagination will be vital to developing the best use-cases for Blockchain and the drive from the Central Banks will be crucial in achieving commercial success. 59. As yet, there is no consensus over the optimal use-cases for Blockchain. This is understandable, given the novelty of the technology and Financial Institutions' uncertainty over how to harness its potential. The disruptive change to Financial Services will not come directly from the originators of the technology – it will come from mass adoption of the use of the DLT environment by users. As seen in the development of the Internet, major disruptive business process and models took a number of years to become established and profitable. The risk for the Central Banks is, as mentioned, that the mass adoption could occur through a development of a Central Payment System on an un-regulated social media site. 60. Central Banking functions would need to consider how to manage the monetary policy and financial stability where the ‘deposits’ would be in the form of virtual currency. There would also be questions regarding how to control money supply, when the country’s currency is outside the border “within a virtual economy” potentially controlled by a third party, which is not regulated in the country, as well as how to link back to Fiat currency. 61. The impact of Blockchain will vary across different geographies. In particular, the greatest impact of Blockchain may not be felt in Europe and North America, where financial infrastructures are at their most complicated, but in Africa or Asia where technology is less mature. 62. Central Banks will need to work collaboratively, in a Smart Partnership Way, and accept Blockchain as a given, analyse how the ‘in-country’ and ‘cross border’ Banking/Financial 31 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. Services would develop, what are the new business models and processes that would develop based on Blockchain. Blockchain’s ability to provide reassurance and certainty on a shared, decentralised basis carries huge significance for financial institutions - and their would-be challengers. Blockchain will not entirely 'replace' any aspect of financial services, but expect it to reshape or even revolutionise business models in many sectors of the industry. 63. The Central Banks and country regulators need to consider how the Blockchain - DLT would fit into the existing regulatory framework. This regulatory framework needs to cover legal, process and technical standards for both Operational and Systemic Risk. The challenge relating to Systemic Risk is higher that the benefits associated with Operational Risk. 64. Central Banks and the regulators need to consider how to move from the standard associated with Technical Code to the Legal/Process and Regulations. This would entail controlling the Technical Code and regulating the developing and re-engineered business process through legal means - a code. The implementation of Blockchains and DLT will significantly change business process. The Central Banks need to use their power with the regulator to manage the transformation of business process. Further detailed background mentioned above is available by clicking here. https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7329639464 32 CPTM Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age CFMM, 6 October 2016, Washington, D.C. ANNEXES Annex I Definitions of Key Terms Extract from Distributed Ledger Technology: beyond block chain A report by the UK Chief Scientific Adviser 22 Blockchain is a type of database that takes a number of records and puts them in a block (rather like collating them on to a single sheet of paper). Each block is then ‘chained’ to the next block, using a cryptographic signature. It is analogous to a database that shows all changes made since its creation. This allows Blockchain to be used like a Distributed ledger, which can be shared and corroborated by anyone with the appropriate permissions. The real novelty of Blockchain technology is that it is more than just a database — it can also set rules about a transaction (business logic) that are tied to the transaction itself. This contrasts with conventional databases, in which rules are often set at the entire database level, or in the application, but not in the transaction. Major players in the financial industry have seized on the technology that maintains the Blockchain (or common ledger) as a significant innovation.23 It is seen by many as a way to achieve a reliable shared list without having a central party to maintain it.24 There are many ways to corroborate the accuracy of a ledger, but they are broadly known as consensus, the process of solving complex mathematical equations as part of verifying changes made to the ledger.25 If participants in that process are preselected, the ledger is Private – permissioned – see below o Permissioned where all group members maintain integrity o Double Permissioned - only a privileged group member maintain integrity o Un-permissioned ledgers - operate by decentralized competition reduces availability and resilience If the process is open to everyone, the ledger is Public – unpermissioned see below o Double permissionless or integrity maintained through a ledger reward o Permissionless integrity maintained through off ledger incentives Permissioned ledgers may have one or many owners. When a new record is added, the ledger’s integrity is checked by a limited consensus process. This is carried out by trusted actors: government departments or banks, for example, which makes maintaining a shared record much simpler that the consensus process used by unpermissioned ledgers. Permissioned block chains 22 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/492972/gs-16-1-distributed-ledgertechnology.pdf 23 Nathaniel Popper, Wall Street Takes a Keen Interest in Bitcoin’s Latest Technology; Bitcoin’s Blockchain Tech Is Being Examined to See if It Can Be Used to Create a New Way of Transacting Online, IRISH TIMES (Sept. 14, 2015), http:/ /www.irishtimes.com/business/wall-street-takes-a-keen-interest-in-bitcoin-s-technolo gy-1.2340274 (reporting on the interest in Blockchain technology by numerous major banks across the globe) 24 Robinson & Leising, supra note 16; The Great Chain of Being Sure About Things, ECONOMIST, Oct. 31, 2015, at 21. 25 See ANDREAS M. ANTONOPOULOS, MASTERING BITCOIN: UNLOCKING DIGITAL CRYPTOCURRENCIES 18 (2014). 33 provide highly-verifiable data sets because the consensus process creates a digital signature, which can be seen by all parties. Requiring many government departments to validate a record could give a high degree of confidence in the record’s security, for example, in contrast to the current situation where departments often have to share data using pieces of paper. A permissioned ledger is usually faster than an unpermissioned ledger. Unpermissioned ledgers such as Bitcoin have no single owner—indeed, they cannot be owned. The purpose of an unpermissioned ledger is to allow anyone to contribute data to the ledger and for everyone in possession of the ledger to have identical copies. This creates censorship resistance, which means that no actor can prevent a transaction from being added to the ledger. Participants maintain the integrity of the ledger by reaching a consensus about its state. Unpermissioned ledgers can be used as a global record that cannot be edited: for declaring a last will and testament, for example, or assigning property ownership. But they also pose a challenge to institutional power structures and existing industries, and this may warrant a policy response. Distributed ledgers are a type of database that is spread across multiple sites, countries or institutions, and is typically public. Records are stored one after the other in a continuous ledger, rather than sorted into blocks, but they can only be added when the participants reach a quorum. A distributed ledger requires greater trust in the validators or operators of the ledger. For example, the global financial transactions system Ripple selects a list of validators (known as Unique Node Validators) from up to 200 known, unknown or partially known validators who are trusted not to collude in defrauding the actors in a transaction. This process provides a digital signature that is considered less censorship resistant than Bitcoin’s, but is significantly faster. Shared ledger is a term coined by Richard Brown, formerly of IBM and now Chief Technology Officer of the Distributed Ledger Group, which typically refers to any database and application that is shared by an industry or private consortium, or that is open to the public. It is the most generic and catch-all term for this group of technologies. A shared ledger may use a distributed ledger or block chain as its underlying database, but will often layer on permissions for different types of users. As such, ‘shared ledger’ represents a spectrum of possible ledger or database designs that are permissioned at some level. An industry’s shared ledger may have a limited number of fixed validators who are trusted to maintain the ledger, which can offer significant benefits. Smart contracts are contracts whose terms are recorded in a computer language instead of legal language. Smart contracts can be automatically executed by a computing system, such as a suitable distributed ledger system. The potential benefits of smart contracts include low contracting, enforcement, and compliance costs; consequently, it becomes economically viable to form contracts over numerous low-value transactions. The potential risks include a reliance on the computing system that executes the contract. At this stage, the risks and benefits are largely theoretical because the technology of smart contracts is still in its infancy, and some time away from widespread deployment. Smart contracts are self-executing codes meant to replicate the terms of a given contract. They effectively translate contractual terms (e.g., payment terms and conditions, confidentiality agreements) into computational material. 34 Annex II Selected Smart Reading Tips General CPTM Documents o o o o o o CPTM Limitless Opportunities through Smart Partnership https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_6401235714 The CPTM Way https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7605984471 CPTM 2015 Executive Brief to Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7689663522 Central Bank Governors’ Think Tanking 2016, ‘CPTM Highlights & Insights on Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age’ https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7266421300 CPTM Smart Partnership Inclusion Initiative on the Emerging Digital Landscape – Challenges and Opportunities https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7654664001 CPTM Brief on the Africa Open Data Conference, Dar es Salaam, 2015 https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7691617399 Part I - Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age o o o o o o o o o o o The 2016 Brookings Financial and Digital Inclusion Project Report: Advancing Equitable Financial Ecosystems https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2016/08/fdip_20160816_project_report.pdf GPFI and G20 Principles for Innovative Financial Inclusion http://www.gpfi.org/publications/g20-principles-innovative-financial-inclusion-executive-brief World Bank Global Findex Database Measuring Financial Inclusion around the World http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/681361466184854434/2014-Global-Findex-Report-DKSV.pdf Bank of England, Finance Version 2.0? http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/slides891.pdf Bank of England FinTech Accelerator ‘Proof of Concept’ http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Pages/fintech/default.aspx Emerging Digital Landscape and Supercomputing, Mr Nkundwe Moses Mwasaga presentation https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7052702605 De-risking Strategies of Canadian and American Banks (Montreal Meeting of the Regional Consultative Group for the Americas) https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7159431206 De-Risking and its Impact: The Caribbean Perspective https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7159431931 Understanding Bank De-Risking and its Effects on Financial Inclusion http://www.globalcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/rr-bank-de-risking-181115-en.pdf Willke, Becker and Rostasy, Systemic Risk: The Myth of Rational Finance and the Crisis of Democracy https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7332823972 Thomas Philippon, The FinTech Opportunity http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2819862 35 Part II - Sharing Experiences: National Contexts of Financial Inclusion o o o o Tanzania Narrows the Financial Inclusion Gender Gap http://www.afi-global.org/countries/tanzania Swaziland Financial Inclusion Country Report 2014 http://www.uncdf.org/sites/default/files//Documents/swazi_synthesis_report_repro.pdf Dr Caleb Fundanga on the origins of the CPTM Financial Inclusion group https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7176137631 7th Annual Global Policy Forum 2015, Maputo, Mozambique http://www.afi-global.org/global-policy-forum/2015 Part III - Strategic Interdependencies for Financial Inclusion: Statistics, Data & Standards in a Digital Landscape o o o o o o Standards Australia and Blockchain o Australia proposes International Blockchain Standards http://www.standards.org.au/OurOrganisation/News/Documents/Media%20Release% 20-%20International%20Blockchain%20Standard%20-%2014%20April%202016.pdf o Australia pushes ISO for blockchain standards http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/australia-pushes-iso-forblockchain-standards/news-story/514516e87f4ff244a8e81e41f6fe7ef0 o Reserve Bank of Australia on Blockchain: The Ongoing Evolution of the Australian Payments System http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/sp-so-2016-02-23.html ISO 37001- Anti-Bribery Management Systems http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_37001_antibribery_management_systems_standard_brochure.pdf ITU - Digital Financial Services http://www.itu.int/net/pressoffice/press_releases/2016/26.aspx#.V2uj66L0_yM o The Digital Financial Services Ecosystem http://www.itu.int/en/ITUT/focusgroups/dfs/Documents/09_2016/FINAL%20ENDORSED%20ITU%20DFS%2 0Introduction%20Ecosystem%2028%20April%202016_formatted%20AM.pdf Mr Alan Bryden, Information on ISO international standards and financial services https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7180418492 Carl Miller (CASM), ‘A Question of Trust’ http://www.demos.co.uk/files/Question_of_Trust_-_web.pdf Demos Quarterly: Technology Edition – Issue 8, Spring 2016 http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/issue/issue-8/ o Foreword by Carl Miller and Jamie Bartlett http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-8/introduction/ o Dr Amirudin Abdul Wahab, ‘Demos Quarterly: Tapping Social Media for Social Good’ http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-8/tapping-social-media-for-social-goodthree-inspirational-initiatives-to-promote-social-wellbeing/ o Mr Nkundwe Moses Mwasaga, ‘Demos Quarterly: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Digital Sphere’ http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-8/status-mobile-networks-and-social-mediain-sub-saharan-africa/ 36 Part IV - Blockchain: A New Digital Disrupter and the effect on Financial Services o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Euromoney Seminars: Getting Value from Blockchain http://www.euromoneyseminars.com/articles/3562064/getting-value-from-blockchain.html Briefing on The CPTM Smart Partnership Think Tanking on National Visioning and Foresight: Sharing Experiences with Professor Sheila Ronis https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7306435792 Financial Times: FCA considers approving blockchain businesses http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8ab3c696-6634-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227.html#ixzz4I8xseJTG Finance and Beyond: An Infographic Map of Bitcoin and the Emerging Blockchain Ecosystem https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/finance-and-beyond-an-infographic-map-ofbitcoin-and-the-emerging-blockchain-ecosystem-1461789453 Enabling the FinTech transformation: Revolution, Restoration, or Reformation? - speech by Mark Carney http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2016/914.aspx Alex Tapscott, Don Tapscott, Blockchain Revolution (Penguin, 2016) https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7177800040 Blockchain Predictions for 2016 http://www.the-blockchain.com/2015/12/14/adi-ben-ari-blockchain-predictions-for-2016/ Distributed Ledger Technology: beyond block chain, UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/492972/gs-16-1distributed-ledger-technology.pdf FinTech Futures, UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/413095/gs15-3-fintech-futures.pdf ChainVine http://chainvine.com/ The DAO attack & its implications by Mr Kartik Natarajan https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dao-attack-its-implications-kartik-natarajan?trk=prof-post William Mougayar, ‘What We Can Learn From The DAO’, Coindesk, (June 21, 2016) http://www.coindesk.com/can-learn-dao/ and http://www.coindesk.com/blockchainstandards-alarmist/ Bank of International Settlements, ‘Digital Currencies’ http://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d137.pdf Bank of International Settlements, ‘86th Annual Report (FY 2015-16)’ https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2016e_ec.pdf For further webcasts and Smart Partnership videos, please visit the CPTM Smart Partnership YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCb7YTOXGwEomiFAdVqiK-ww 37 For more detailed insights please follow the link: ‘CPTM Highlights & Insights on Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age’ https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D667256_92_7266421300 38 Annex III About CPTM CPTM has a clearly defined mandate to provide advisory services to Governments on matters related to science & technology, to economic development and wealth creation through sound management of technology, using Public/Private Sector Partnerships. This is achieved primarily in two ways: through International Smart Partnership Dialogues and other co-operative interactions and through Networking and Partnership Development. CPTM was established by Commonwealth Heads of Government at CHOGM 1995, New Zealand, as a distinct cooperative framework of Commonwealth Governments, Private and Public Sector organisations and Networking Professionals. Its Mission is to apply Smart Partnership approach to development and transformation, continuing the work of the Commonwealth Science Council’s Science Management Organisation (CSCSMO), initiated in 1984 through the Kendrew Report on Science for Technology for Development. The CSCSMO network went through various transformations - as reflected in the communiques from the Commonwealth Heads of Government meetings - such as COMMANSAT, Commonwealth Management for Science Technology (1989), CCGTM, Commonwealth Consultative Group on Technology Management (1992) and finally CPTM, Commonwealth Partnership for Technology Management (1995) and the emerging Smart Partnership Movement. The inclusive nature of the CPTM Smart Partnership Financial Inclusion Initiative is reflected in the broad spectrum of participants and invitees to recent interactions. These included Central Bank Governors (and representatives), Ministers of Finance as well as practitioners and representatives from the various Smart Partners’ Networking Webs: Southern, East & West Africa, including Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe Caribbean & North America including Barbados South East Asia/Pacific, including Bangladesh, India and Malaysia West Asia/Mediterranean & Europe, including Cyprus and Malta International Organisations such as African Development Bank (ABD), BSI, Centre for the Analysis of Social Media (CASM) at Demos, International Standards Organisation (ISO), International Telecommunication Union (ITU), The Institute of Chartered Secretaries and Administrators (ICSA), Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI), Overseas Development Institute (ODI) among others. 39 The CPTM Smart Partnership Financial Inclusion Initiative The CPTM Smart Partnership Movement promotes inclusive approaches, meaning that all members of society have access to, or benefit from, technology and innovation, quality of goods and services and financial facilities. The 2015 CPTM Brief for CFMM is a summary of the latest developments of the CPTM Financial Inclusion Initiative during the year. CPTM Financial Inclusion Initiative exists within the context of CPTM Smart Partnership Movement’s strategic initiatives: innovative tools for achieving socio-economic transformation. Financial Inclusion in terms of Smart Partnership lies within an integrated framework which includes Standards Inclusion and Technology Inclusion. These provide a specialist multi-pronged approach which is over arched by achieving National Visions in order for nations to succeed rather than fail. This is part of a new adaptive flexibility approach, which is needed in order to manage uncertainty, particularly at time of financial crisis in an interconnected world. CPTM Smart Partners’ Financial Inclusion Initiative was launched during the Langkawi International Dialogue (LID) in 2007 by the Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia. The initiative was carried forward to the Mulungushi International Smart Partnership Dialogue in Zambia in 2008, Global 2009 Smart Partnership Dialogue in Uganda, Global 2011 LID Smart Partnership Dialogue, Global 2013 Smart Partnership in Tanzania and developed further until present. Leading Central Banks involved in CPTM Financial Inclusion Advisers’ (FIA) Initiative include: Barbados; Botswana; Cyprus; Kenya; Lesotho; Malawi; Malaysia; Mauritius; Mozambique; Namibia; Seychelles; Swaziland; Tanzania; Uganda; Zambia; Zimbabwe (among others). The purpose of the CPTM Smart Partners’ Financial Inclusion initiative is to provide practitioners and regulators in the area of financial inclusion with practical ideas via the sharing of knowledge and experiences on developing institutional structures, creating an enabling environment and enhancing financial literacy. The ideas and experiences shared could then be contextualised to the prevailing local conditions to enhance financial inclusion. This initial phase was followed a second stage whereby developments within Mobile Banking advanced and were incorporated into many countries across the world. Such mobile banking networks include Mpesa in Eastern Africa among others. The third and latest phase sees the emergence of evolving flexible approaches for managing uncertainty and interconnectedness. Since 2012, a core group of Central Bank Governors have met annually at the CPTM Smart Partners’ Hub for Think Tanking interaction based on Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion. The outcomes of these interactions are then shared with Commonwealth Finance Ministers ahead of their annual meetings in early October each year. 40 The CPTM Smart Partnership Approach to Socio-Economic Transformation ‘The CPTM Way’ Click here ‘Limitless Opportunities’ Click here 41 CPTM Commonwealth Partnership for Technology Management (CPTM) Brief On Adaptive Flexibility Approaches to Financial Inclusion in a Digital Age - Recommendation and Proposals Published by CPTM, London, September 2016 Produced and edited by the CPTM Smart Partners’ Hub Team For further information and background, contact Dr Mihaela Y Smith, PJN KMN CPTM Chief Executive / Joint Dialogue Convener http://www.cptm.org/ [email protected] CPTM SMART PARTNERSHIP DIALOGUE™ “Towards a Smarter Globe” CPTM is a not-for-profit Company Limited by guarantee Incorporated in England on 13th June 1995, under Companies Act 1985 to 1989 “This Company is being established, with the agreement of Commonwealth Heads of Government, pursuant to their decision taken at their meeting in Limassol on 25th October 1993 to revise the financial and organic structure of the Commonwealth Consultative Group on Technology Management.” CCGTM was established by the CHOGM, Kuala Lumpur, 1989. CPTM Ltd was launched at the CHOGM, Auckland 1995.
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz