European Dairy Market Overview
18 Sep. 12
The extent to which butter prices can
gain would seem to be capped by both
the significant stocks due to come out of
PSA between now and February and the
spread between European and Oceania
products is getting wide with Oceania
product looking particularly cheap relative to Europe and the US.
However when we look at the medium term the rise in SMP prices has
been even more severe than Butter,
having risen 34.63% (€685) from its
lows of €1978 per tonne in May.
Milk collections across Europe are
moving seasonally lower with UK
deliveries holding close to the
The underlying quotations continued to
bottom of the three year range.
rise this past week. The average of the
French collections have moved
German, Dutch and French Butter quota- sharply lower in the past number of
tions rose €117 per tonne (3.8%) to
weeks after keeping track with
€3183. This now leaves butter up a mas- 2011/12 from Mid-June to Midsive 29.9% from its lows of €2450 just 17 August. Indications are that the seaweeks ago in May.
sonal low has been reached and production should increase from here,
The Skimmed Milk Powder quotations
dependent on normal weather conalso rose on the week but the pace of the ditions.
rise has slowed significantly to just €10
per tonne (0.4%), to average €2673.
Fat:Protein Price Ratio
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
5 Year Range
Jun
LY
Jul
Aug
TY
Sep
Oct
5 Year
Nov
Dec
3 Year
UK Daily Milk Deliveries (7 day rolling Average)
42
Deliveries (millions litres/day)
The slowdown in the rise in SMP
quotations is mirroring what is being
reported in the physical markets
where, even news of a new Algerian
tender, has failed to add fuel to the
recent rallies as European prices are
reportedly steady to lower over the
past week in the physical market.
The impact of currency movements
appears to have clearly put a cap on
the rally as now European prices are
trading almost at parity with US and
are starting to look expensive against
NZ in Q4 and Q1 2013.
EU Fat Protein Ratio Ranges
0.80
40
38
36
34
32
01-Apr 06-May 10-Jun
15-Jul
Range
19-Aug 23-Sep
3yr Average
28-Oct
2011/12
02-Dec
06-Jan
10-Feb 16-Mar
2012/13
Source: DairyCo
French Weekly Milk Collection
520
500
Deliveries (millions litres per week)
Worldwide economic news took centre
stage last week as it looks like Europe is
now ‘fixed’ again and the US solves all its
problems by buying equities. The next
results are that the Euro has appreciated
strongly against the US dollar, moving
from the 1.28 level to over 1.31 in a
week. How much of a dampening effect
this will have on European dairy prices
remains to be seen. The week Euro had
offered significant support to European
product especially SMP as the Euro held
at near five year lows against the US dollar over the summer months.
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Sep
2010/11
Oct
Nov
2011/12
Dec
Jan
2012/13
Feb
Mar
Source: FranceAgriMer
SMP Forward Curve
Spreads (EUR/Mt Equiv)
€500.00
€400.00
€300.00
€200.00
€100.00
€0.00
-€100.00
-€200.00
EU-US
EU-NZ
US-NZ
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or
OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and
no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on
behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. FC Stone Commodity Services (Europe) Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Oceania Market Overview
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
Total
Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF)
-
2,200
1,700
1,200
850
250
Butter Milk Powder (BMP)
-
350
150
150
-
-
650
Cheddar (Ched)
-
500
1,500
1,000
-
-
3,000
Milk Protein Concentrate
-
400
200
200
-
-
800
Rennet Casein (RenCas)
-
400
200
200
-
-
800
Skim Milk Powder (SMP)
-
5,000
2,500
1,500
1,000
-
10,000
500
14,500
12,750
4,500
2,500
1,000
35,750
Whole Milk Powder (WMP)
6,200
Source GDT, NZX
Fonterra GDT Supply Quantities
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jun 08
Dec 08
Jun 09
AMF
BMP
Dec 09
Cheese
Jun 10
MPC70
Dec 10
RenCas
WMP saw Sep12 and Oct12 unchanged
for the week, with Sep12 holding at
SMP volume remains unchanged from
US$3050 and Oct12 at US$3420. Nov12
the last auction and forecasts, with
saw a 0.15% (US$5) increase, to move to
10,000 tonnes of Fonterra product on
offer. The majority of product (50%) is on US$3275 with the remainder of the forward curve remaining flat for the week
offer in Nov12 contract 2, with 25% in
with the exception of Feb13, which
Dec12 and the remainder in 2013.
moves up to US$3340 to bring it in line
NZX dairy futures were quieter than norwith the trajectory of the remainder of
mal last week with a total of 124 lots
the contract months.
trading all in the WMP and SMP contracts. WMP saw the biggest proportion SMP saw relatively small price movements at the front end of the forward
of the trades, with 80 lots, with 50 in
front month Sep12, 20 in Oct12 and the curve, with Sep12 up 0.46% (US$15)
final 10 in Dec12. The SMP contract saw settling the week at US$3245 and Oct12
down by 0.15% (US$5) to US$3375. The
all 44 lots trading in Sep12, while there
remainder of the curve was unchanged,
were no trades on the AMF contract.
Settlement prices for the three dairy con- keeping a strong carry from Sep12 to
Mar13 which is now at US$305.
tracts were mostly unchanged on the
week.
Jan-13
Contract 1 Contract 2 Contract 3 Contract 4 Contract 5 Contract 6
SMP
Jun 11
Dec 11
Jun 12
Dec 12
Source: Global Dairy Trade / NZX Group
WMP
economy has further strengthened the
NZ Dollar vs the US Dollar which will
have further negative effect on the returns to NZ dairy companies and farmers.
NZDEUR Price Ranges
0.70
0.65
0.60
NZDEUR
AMF volume is up by 15.78% from the
previous event or the last forecast with
6,200 tonnes on offer. The increased
volume is on offer in Oct12 (up by 130
tonnes), Nov12 (up by 460 tonnes) and
Dec12 (up by 255 tonnes).
Shipment Months at Seller Ports
Oct-12
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
5 Year Range
Jun
TY
Jul
LY
Aug
Sep
5 Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
3 Year
NZDUSD Price Ranges
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
NZDUSD
WMP volume is down from the last auction by 2,250 tonnes (5.92%) to 35,750
tonnes, with Oct12 contract 1, down
from 5,000 to 500 tonnes while Nov12
and Dec12 both increase by 1,500
tonnes. Compared to the last forecast,
total WMP on offer is up by 15.32%, with
Oct12 up by 500 tonnes, Nov12 by 2,500
tonnes and Dec12 by 1,750 tonnes.
GDT 18th September Offer Quantities (Fonterra)
Sales Group Maximum
Supply (MT)
tonnes ('000)
Today’s GDT auction sees the volume
down slightly from the previous event
but higher the previous forecasts, with a
total of 57,200 tonnes of Fonterra product on offer. The majority of the volume
is being offered in the Nov12 and Dec 12
contracts with 42,350 tonnes (75% of
total).
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
The latest round of QE in for the US
0.45
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
5 Year Range
May
Jun
TY
Jul
LY
Aug
Sep
5 Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
3 Year
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or
OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and
no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on
behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. FC Stone Commodity Services (Europe) Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Dairy Market Outlook
Page 2
Macro Economic Overview
Price
1,461.19
USD
1,450
1,440
1,430
1,420
1,410
1,400
1,390
1,380
1,370
1,360
US S&P Daily
1,350
1,340
.12
Price
7,334.810
EUR
7,200
7,100
7,000
6,900
6,800
6,700
German DAX, Daily
6,600
6,500
Source: Reuters
09
16
July 2012
23
30
06
In economic data this week we
have BOE Minutes out tomorrow
along with the DOE Inventory
Report. Thursday brings German
PPI and Euro-zone Consumer
Equities continue to move higher in Confidence while on Friday we
what has been a very impressive
have next to nothing of immove over the past month. In the US portance out in a quiet week for
the DJIA closed out yesterday’s ses- data points.
sion lower but only slightly so and we
are now trading at 13553.10 while
the S&P is trading at 1461.19. The
VIX is also stable at 14.59.
13
20
August 2012
27
04
6,400
.123
10
17
September 2012
EURUSD Price Ranges
1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
EURUSD
Global markets rallied again last
week as the US Federal Reserve announced another round of QE for the
US economy, boosting the Euro, commodities and the equities markets
whilst at the same time ensuring
Gold takes a run at the 2000 level.
The Euro started out last week trading just above 1.28 but closed the
week out above 1.3100. Between
the ECB embarking on a new bond
purchasing scheme and the UK and
the US pumping more and more
money into the economy risk asset
values are expected to remain high
for some time to come. Spanish and
Italian 10 year bond yields declined
again and are now trading at 5.911%
and 5.064% respectively.
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
5 Year Range
Jun
TY
Jul
LY
Aug
Sep
5 Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
3 Year
Price
USD
Ozs
1,765
1,760
1,755
Commodities have been particularly
strong over the past month so it was
perhaps no surprise to see the large
decline yesterday in crude prices
which had many traders speculating
on an un-official reserve release by
the US. Brent crude prices are currently trading at $114.00. Gold prices
have soared higher since the QE announcement. We are currently trading at 1755 after yesterday’s close.
1,750
Spot Gold, Hourly
1,745
1,740
1,735
1,730
1,725
1,720
.12
Price
USD
1.305
1.3
Euro Dollar, Hourly
1.295
1.29
1.285
1.28
06:00 14:00 22:00
10 Sep 12
06:00 14:00
22:00
11 Sep 12
06:00 14:00 22:00
12 Sep 12
06:00
14:00 22:00
13 Sep 12
06:00 14:00
14 Sep 12
22:00
Source: Reuters .1234
06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00
17 Sep 12
18 Sep 12
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or
OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and
no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on
behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. FC Stone Commodity Services (Europe) Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Dairy Market Outlook
Page 3
Dairy Market Weekly Recap
Eurex Futures
NZX Futures
Butter Futures
14 Sep 07 Sep
Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR)
Sep-12
€/tonne
Oct-12
€/tonne
Nov-12
€/tonne
Dec-12
€/tonne
Jan-13
€/tonne
Feb-13
€/tonne
Apr-13
€/tonne
Jul-13
€/tonne
Oct-13
€/tonne
Jan-14
€/tonne
3183
3150
3150
3150
3100
3150
3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
3067
3275
3300
3250
3250
3350
3350
3350
3350
3350
3350
Change
OI
3.80%
-3.82%
-4.55%
-3.08%
-4.62%
-5.97%
-10.45%
-10.45%
-10.45%
-10.45%
-10.45%
0
31
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Change
OI
0.38%
-0.91%
0.00%
-0.91%
-0.91%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
 0.00%
0.00%
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0











WMP Futures
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
14 Sep 07 Sep
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
3050
3240
3275
3320
3340
3340
3270
3015
3050
3240
3270
3320
3340
3260
3270
3015








Change
OI
0.00%
0.00%
0.15%
0.00%
0.00%
2.45%
0.00%
0.00%
960
814
1299
1214
40
0
0
0
NZX WMP Forward Curve
3500
2000
3300
Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR)
Sep-12
€/tonne
Oct-12
€/tonne
Nov-12
€/tonne
Dec-12
€/tonne
Jan-13
€/tonne
Feb-13
€/tonne
Apr-13
€/tonne
Jul-13
€/tonne
Oct-13
€/tonne
Jan-14
€/tonne
2673
2725
2743
2725
2725
2675
2675
2675
2675
2675
2675
2663
2750
2743
2750
2750
2675
2675
2675
2675
2675
2675









3400
300
3300
250
3200
200
3100
150
3000
100
2900
14 Sep
Open Interest
€/tonne
Eurex Butter Forward Curve
50
07 Sep
2800
0
Sep 12
Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Apr 13
1500
3100
2900
1000
2700
Open Interest
14 Sep 07 Sep
USD/tonne
SMP Futures
500
2500
14 Sep
07 Sep
2300
0
Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13
SMP Futures
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
AMF Futures
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
14 Sep 07 Sep
3245
3375
3465
3515
3530
3550
3550
3160
3230
3380
3465
3515
3530
3550
3550
3160








14 Sep 07 Sep
3430
3600
3680
3600
3650
3700
3540
3540
3430
3600
3680
3600
3650
3700
3540
3540








Change
OI
0.46%
-0.15%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
88
78
116
74
0
0
0
0
Change
OI
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
150
10
40
30
0
0
0
0
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Class III Milk
Class IV Milk
Block Cheddar
Butter (Cash Settled)
Nonfat Dry Milk
Dry Whey
Intl SMP
14 Sep
07 Sep
18.87
17.50
1.865
183.00
140.00
57.00
3100
18.85
18.00
1.851
186.00
140.50
57.03
3100







Change
Ref Month
0.11%
-2.78%
0.76%
-1.61%
-0.36%
-0.04%
0.00%
Sep-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Total OI
25,441
542
5,595
3,505
1,097
1,488
0
US$/cwt
US$/cwt
US¢/lb
US¢/lb
US¢/lb
US¢/lb
US$/tonne
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or
OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and
no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on
behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. FC Stone Commodity Services (Europe) Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Dairy Market Outlook
Page 4
About Eurex Exchange
Eurex Exchange is one of the leading global derivatives exchanges. Our offering comprises a broad range
of futures and options on traditional and alternative asset classes as well as a growing range of commodities including precious metals, energy and agricultural derivatives. Together, Eurex Exchange and the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have daily trading volumes of about 10.5 million contracts.
Eurex Exchange is a member of Eurex Group which also comprises the International Securities Exchange
(ISE), European Energy Exchange (EEX), Eurex Clearing, Eurex Bonds and Eurex Repo.
www.eurexchange.com
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INTL FCStone's customers include the producers, processors and end users of virtually every major traded commodity; commercial counter-parties; governmental, non-governmental and charitable organizations; institutional investors; brokers; professional traders; commercial banks; and major investment
banks.
Among our services are the proprietary Integrated Risk Management Program (IRMP), as well as exchange and OTC execution and clearing services, designed to limit risk and enhance margins and bottomline results; physical trading in base metals, precious metals and grains; a global foreign exchange and
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and investment banking advisory services.
www.intlfcstone.com
FCStone Europe
Dairy Contact Details
European Office: +353 1 6349140
Charlie Hyland:
[email protected]
Liam Fenton:
[email protected]
John Lancaster:
[email protected]
FC Stone Commodity Services (Europe) Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or
OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and
no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on
behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. FC Stone Commodity Services (Europe) Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Dairy Market Outlook
Page 5
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Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Dairy Market Outlook
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