Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests: Harvest Levels, Market Trends and Revenue Realities Ellen Holste and Brad Garmon ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Note: This report was revised and republished on May 1, 2013. The updated version contains corrected data on timber harvest levels from Michigan’s national forests, which were incorrect when they were initially supplied to MEC. It also clarifies several minor points. Authors Ellen Holste, M.S. in Forestry and PhD Candidate in Forestry Michigan State University Brad Garmon, Director of Conservation and Emerging Issues Michigan Environmental Council The authors would thank Doug Heym, Larry Leefers, and David Neumann for their advice and data. A special thanks to Larry Pedersen for all his invaluable information and guidance and to Marvin Roberson for his insights, review and comments, and inspiration to create this report. About the Michigan Environmental Council Michigan Environmental Council, a 501(c)(3) charitable organization, is a coalition of more than 60 organizations created in 1980 to lead Michigan’s environmental movement to achieve positive change through the public policy process. MEC combines deep environmental policy expertise with close connections to key state and federal decision makers to rally broad and powerful alliances in support of reforms. With our member groups and partners in the environmental, public health and faith communities, MEC works to ensure that Michigan families will always enjoy healthy waters, clean beaches, beautiful landscapes and vibrant communities. For More Information Brad Garmon, Director of Conservation and Emerging Issues Michigan Environmental Council 602 W. Ionia Street Lansing, MI 48933 517-487-9539 www.environmentalcouncil.org TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................... 2 PART 1: THE MICHIGAN FOREST MANAGEMENT SYSTEM .......................................................................... 4 Michigan Publically Owned Forestland ....................................................................................................... 4 Michigan DNR Forest Management ............................................................................................................ 10 Types of Timberland in Michigan ................................................................................................................. 13 PART 2: TRENDS AND DRIVERS OF PUBLIC FOREST POLICY: DEMAND, MARKETS AND TIMBER PRODUCTS ............................................................................................. 20 Timber Demand .................................................................................................................................................. 20 Michigan Timber Employment ...................................................................................................................... 27 Michigan Timber Sales, Harvests, and Revenue...................................................................................... 31 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 40 List of Figures Figure 1. Michigan DNR Ownership Map Figure 2. Michigan State Forest Map with Forest Resource Division Districts and Management Units. Figure 3. Current Forest Types for State Forest Land Figure 4. Most Common Forest Types by Timber Sales in 2010 Figure 5. Michigan DNR Sales by Acres for the Five Most Common Timber Forest Types Figure 6. Lumber Manufacturing Revenue from 2003 to 2013 Figure 7. Household and Office Furniture Manufacturing Revenue from 2003 to 2013 Figure 8. Wood-based Transportation Manufacturing Revenue from 2003 to 2013 Figure 9. Paper Manufacturing Revenue from 2004 to 2013 Figure 10. Demand for Paper Product Manufacturing Linked to Online Services Figure 11. Timber Industry-Related Jobs in Michigan Figure 12. Comparison of Michigan and National Average Percent Decrease in Timber Jobs from 1998 to 2010 Figure 13. Total Number of Timber Proprietors in Michigan from 1998 to 2010 Figures 14A & 14B. Decrease in Timber Sector Jobs between 1998 and 2010 Figure 15. Comparing the Percent Decrease in Timber Jobs between States with 17,000 – 19,000 Acres of Timberland Figure 16. Acreage of State Forest Timber Sales from 1940 to 2010 Figure 17. Volume of State Forest Timber Sales in Cords from 1940 to 2010 Figure 18. State Forest Timber Sales and Harvests in Acres from 2002 to 2012 Figure 19. State Forest Timber Sales and Harvest in Cords from 2002 to 2012 Figure 20. Michigan's Three National Forests' Approximate Sawtimber and Pulpwood Volumes Sold from 2008 to 2012 Figure 21. Michigan DNR State Forest Timber Revenue from 2002 to 2012 Figure 22. DNR State Forest Pulpwood and Sawlog Revenue from 1986 to 2010 in percent Figure 23. Michigan's Three National Forests' Revenue from Sawlog and Pulpwood Sales from 2008 to 2012 Figure 24. Percent Sawlog and Pulpwood Revenue from Michigan’s Three National Forests from 2008 to 2012 Figure 25. Comparison of Timber Volumes Sold between Michigan and Minnesota from 2001 to 2010 List of Tables Table 1. Top Ten States by the Amount (in acres) of State-owned Forestland Table 2. Top Ten States by the Amount (in acres) of State-owned Timberland Table 3. Top Ten States by the Total Amount (in acres) of Public-owned Timberland including Federal-, State-, and Local-owned Table 4. Top Ten States by the Amount (in acres) of Total Timberland EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report examines the role of timber harvesting in Michigan’s publicly owned forests to provide policymakers and stakeholders with a better understanding of the dynamics of forestry as it relates to recent public policy initiatives affecting forest management practices in the Great Lakes State. Among the key findings: • Over the last half century, and even during the recent recession, timber harvests and sales from state-owned land have generally increased. Current rates of timber cutting from state-owned lands are significantly higher than comparable federal lands and similar to private lands. • The vast majority of the 4.6 million acres of state-owned land is open to selective timber harvests. A relatively small percentage is off-limits to harvests due to policy considerations (e.g., state campgrounds). Most of the state land is actively managed for timber harvesting with the cooperation of the logging industry and has been for decades. • The current rate of harvest from Michigan’s state forests is at, or very near, maximum sustainable levels. Studies citing high growth-over-harvest rates in a push to cut more wood from state-owned lands do not accurately account for numerous factors which limit harvestable timber. • Market forces, including the recession, housing crisis and lower-priced timber from overseas competitors, are a larger driver of changes in volume and character of timber harvests on state lands than either policy or regulatory changes. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 1 INTRODUCTION Michigan’s state-owned forest system, amounting to nearly four million acres, is larger than any other state-owned system in the U.S. In addition to the recreational, tourism and indirect economic benefits we derive from this natural resource, it also supports more than 13,000 timber and wood products jobs and more than 2,200 companies all across the state. Over the last 65 years, sales of state forest timber have increased. The last five years alone have seen Michigan’s State Forest systems earn about 65 percent more revenue per year compared to the three national forests in the state. Even so, pressure to cut more remains high. As cited in Bridge Magazine in 2012, proponents of increasing harvests on state forests added language in the 2012 fiscal year Department of Natural Resource (DNR) budget demanding the agency “permit a 50 percent increase in commercial timber harvesting in state forests” and give commercial loggers “access to 79,000 acres of state forests this year, up from an average of 53,000 acres that were harvested annually over the past two decades, according to state data.” Can the state forest system sustain such increases? What would the impact be on forest health, on recreational values, and on the aesthetics of the rich “up north” landscape? Perhaps as important, what are the true drivers of timber trends? What are the economics underlying Michigan DNR’s prescriptions and harvest levels? And what effect would very abrupt changes—a proposed 50 percent harvest increase, for example—in scientifically based management practices have on Michigan’s public lands? In 2007, the Michigan Environmental Council worked with partners at the National Wildlife Federation and researchers from several Michigan universities to research timberland ownership changes in the Upper Peninsula. That report, “Large-tract Forestland Ownership Change: Land Use, Conservation and Prosperity in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula,” provided much-needed data and context about the scale and potential implications of transitions of private timberland ownership. Its observations and more than 20 recommendations largely remain as relevant today as they were six years ago. This report attempts to provide a similar service to policymakers and stakeholders interested in the role of state-owned, public forests in Michigan. State forest management and state land policy issues are taking center stage in state policy discussions in an unprecedented way. This paper is intended to inform and provide additional context for those policy discussions. Our research suggests that forest product markets both nationally and internationally are sending largely unacknowledged shockwaves throughout the wood products industry, reshaping wood markets and, over time, becoming manifest in the kinds of trees and the age of the forests in our landscapes. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 2 Overall, the forest products industry is shrinking—e.g., paper, like many things, becomes cheaper every day to make in China. Since 1998, the number of timber industry jobs in Michigan has decreased by about 40 percent and the number of different proprietors by 18 percent. Those numbers largely mirror nationwide timber job declines; nationally, wood products manufacturing jobs have declined 36 percent, 45.5 percent in sawmill and paper mill jobs, and 29.6 percent in jobs growing and harvesting timber. Over the last ten years, these market forces have also begun to change the composition of timber sales, and therefore our state forests. In Michigan, more northern hardwood acres were sold and aspen acres declined; the acreage of red pine sales doubled and surpassed aspen sales. Twenty years ago, pulpwood made up about 70 percent of state revenue from timber sales, while sawlogs comprised the other 30 percent. But with declines in aspen pulpwood and increases in hardwood sales, these numbers have been converging over the past 15 years. Such changes can be more clearly seen by looking at revenue from the three national forests in Michigan. Compared to state forests, sawlogs harvested from national forests tend to comprise a similar proportion by volume but make up a slightly larger proportion of harvest revenue, suggesting that the national forests may be selectively selling wood products that earn higher revenue per unit. Michigan’s forests, then, are not just the product of natural processes, or even political or policy demands, but are influenced and impacted by factors like the U.S. housing market crash, the global recession and international trade, contraction and consolidation of firms and companies, and even trends in technology and tastes for consumer goods. These large-scale factors are reflected in a shrinking and challenged forest products industry in Michigan, which in turn sends ripples of change across the landscape of Michigan’s state forests. These are the facts, trends and issues that decision-makers and stakeholders need to consider as discussions of harvest rates and job proposals in the timber industry move forward. We hope the information compiled here is helpful to that endeavor. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 3 PART 1: THE MICHIGAN FOREST MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Michigan Publically Owned Forestland Nationally, Michigan ranks 22nd in total land area with 36.3 million acres, and more than half is covered in forests1. The State of Michigan owns approximately 4.59 million acres of land, and the vast majority (3,838,145 acres) is under the management of the DNR Forest Resources Division. This is the portion of state-owned land managed primarily for timber products with many benefits for wildlife, camping, hunting, and other outdoor recreational activities2. The DNR Parks and Recreation Division, by comparison, only manages 351,715, while the Wildlife Division manages 359,602 acres. The majority of DNR land is located in the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula (Figure 1). Figure 1. Michigan DNR Ownership Map Source: Michigan DNR http://www.michigan.gov/dnr/0,4570,7-153-31154-285534--,00.html Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 4 The DNR manages its forest lands for timber production, new tree growth, wildlife habitat and a wide range of outdoor recreation opportunities such as wildlife viewing, hunting, fishing, hiking, cross country skiing, mountain biking, backpacking, horseback riding, and camping3. State Forests Altogether, the State of Michigan owns approximately 4 million total acres that are forested. The federal government holds 3 million acres, and private landowners own about 12 million acres4. Although the majority of forests in Michigan are owned by private non-industrial landowners, the DNR is the largest single forest landowner. The DNR manages the state forest system through four Forest Resource Division districts in Michigan, all located in the northern two-thirds of the state. These forests make up the largest state forest system in the nation and approximately 87 percent of all DNR lands5. Michigan’s forest resource districts are further divided into 16 forest management units which administer activities in these forests (Baraga, Crystal Falls, Gwinn, Escanaba, Newberry, Sault St. Marie, Shingleton, Cadillac, Gladwin, Roscommon, Southern, Traverse City, Atlanta, Gaylord, Grayling, and Pigeon River Country) (Figure 2). Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 5 Figure 2. Michigan State Forest Map with Forest Resource Division Districts and Management Units. Source: Michigan DNR http://www.michigan.gov/images/dnr/FMU_Map_384466_7.png State forests can be divided into two types: forestland and/or timberland. According to the USDA Forest Service, forestland is land that is at least 10 percent stocked by forest trees of any size6. Nationally, Michigan ranks first in state-owned forestland (Table 1)7. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 6 Table 1. Top Ten States by the Amount (in acres) of State-owned Forestland Rank (by State‐owned Forestland) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Federal‐ owned State‐owned Forestland Forestland (in acres) State (in acres) Michigan 4,165,809 2,702,021 New York 4,102,274 15,605 Minnesota 3,878,943 2,643,362 Pennsylvania 3,806,553 496,387 Florida 2,899,778 1,180,196 Washington 2,490,306 8,482,238 New Mexico 2,265,430 7,742,962 Arizona 1,589,596 7,693,811 Utah 1,485,393 6,299,150 Idaho 1,227,429 16,155,635 Total Forestland (in acres) 20,127,049 18,966,415 17,370,394 16,781,960 17,460,963 22,435,028 24,839,375 18,642,969 18,135,127 21,447,733 State Land Area (in acres) 36,354,445 30,216,826 50,950,451 28,682,630 34,513,165 42,588,198 77,667,539 72,726,125 52,571,936 52,958,214 % State‐ owned by Total State Forestland 20.70 21.63 22.33 22.68 16.61 11.10 9.12 8.53 8.19 5.72 % State‐ owned by Total Land Area 11.46 13.58 7.61 13.27 8.40 5.85 2.92 2.19 2.83 2.32 % Federal‐ % Federal‐ owned by owned by Total State Total Land Area Forestland 13.42 7.43 0.08 0.05 15.22 5.19 2.96 1.73 6.76 3.42 37.81 19.92 31.17 9.97 41.27 10.58 34.73 11.98 75.33 30.51 Source: USDA Forest Service FIA database But not all trees in forestland are available and suitable to use as commercial products. According to the USDA Forest Service, timberland is a specific type of forestland that produces or is capable of producing 20 cubic feet per acre of commercial wood annually and has not been reserved for other management purposes (such as wildlife habitat or conservation land related to sustainable forest certification processes)8. Of Michigan’s 4 million acres of forestland, 97 percent also is considered timberland, ranking Michigan first in the nation in state-owned timberland as well (Table 2) but eighth in publicowned timberland (including federal, state, and local) (Table 3)9. Table 2. Top Ten States by the Amount (in acres) of State-owned Timberland % State‐ Federal‐ State Land owned by Total owned State‐owned Rank (by Total State Area (in Timberland Timberland Timberland State‐owned Timberland acres) (in acres) (in acres) (in acres) Timberland) State 1 Michigan 4,049,834 2,544,173 19,462,573 36,354,445 20.81 2 Minnesota 3,683,398 1,841,155 15,928,971 50,950,451 23.12 3 Pennsylvania 3,408,120 480,935 16,241,095 28,682,630 20.98 4 Florida 2,427,341 1,128,462 15,916,253 34,513,165 15.25 5 Washington 2,325,897 5,928,064 18,080,795 42,588,198 12.86 6 New York 1,152,262 15,605 15,919,668 30,216,826 7.24 7 Wisconsin 1,118,684 1,382,183 16,726,250 34,758,464 6.69 8 Idaho 1,116,072 12,210,340 16,771,660 52,958,214 6.65 9 Alaska 891,390 3,921,331 6,333,462 366,048,806 14.07 10 Oregon 879,653 11,583,859 24,116,566 61,437,946 3.65 % Federal‐ % Federal‐ % State‐ owned by owned by owned by Total Land Total State Total Land Area Timberland Area 11.14 13.07 7.00 7.23 11.56 3.61 11.88 2.96 1.68 7.03 7.09 3.27 5.46 32.79 13.92 3.81 0.10 0.05 3.22 8.26 3.98 2.11 72.80 23.06 0.24 61.91 1.07 1.43 48.03 18.85 Source: USDA Forest Service FIA database The timberland classification does not take into account all the constraints that state-owned timberlands encounter. For example, state-owned forests are managed for multiple purposes, from timber to recreation. This signifies that these other activities are taken into account when Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 7 considering how to manage the forests. So what might be the best plan for timber management may not be ideal for wildlife habitat or hunting. These factors do not similarly constrain timber management on privately owned timberland. Table 3. Top Ten States by the Total Amount (in acres) of Public-owned Timberland including Federal-, State-, and Local-owned Rank (by Public‐ owned Timberland) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Federal‐ Total Public‐ owned State‐owned Local‐owned owned Timberland Timberland Timberland Timberland (in acres) (in acres) (in acres) (in acres) State Idaho 13,326,412 12,210,340 1,116,072 ‐‐‐ Montana 12,982,309 12,189,945 781,600 10,764 Oregon 12,597,753 11,583,859 879,653 134,241 California 9,298,664 9,137,269 106,246 55,149 Washington 8,606,042 5,928,064 2,325,897 352,081 Minnesota 8,173,651 1,841,155 3,683,398 2,649,098 Colorado 7,940,423 7,597,011 278,411 65,001 Michigan 6,996,316 2,544,173 4,049,834 402,309 Alaska 4,875,581 3,921,331 891,390 62,860 Wisconsin 4,806,195 1,382,183 1,118,684 2,305,328 Total Timberland (in acres) 16,771,660 19,628,391 24,116,566 16,990,599 18,080,795 15,928,971 10,936,915 19,462,573 6,333,462 16,726,250 % Public‐ % Public‐ State Land owned by owned by Total State Total Land Area (in Area Timberland acres) 52,958,214 79.46 25.16 93,153,555 66.14 13.94 61,437,946 52.24 20.50 99,813,978 54.73 9.32 42,588,198 47.60 20.21 50,950,451 51.31 16.04 66,379,219 72.60 11.96 36,354,445 35.95 19.24 366,048,806 76.98 1.33 34,758,464 28.73 13.83 Source: USDA Forest Service FIA database State Park and Recreation Areas Michigan’s State Parks and Recreation division manages about 100 properties covering almost 350,000 acres—a fraction of the 4.6 million acres of state-owned land10—and was recently given management authority for state forest campgrounds. Even though this acreage includes many forested sections, the DNR manages most of these areas mainly for recreational purposes such as hunting, fishing, and camping, not primarily for timber production. The majority of state and recreation areas (63 percent) are located in the northern two-thirds of the state. The largest is the 55,000 acre Porcupine Mountains Wilderness State Park, the most extensive stand of old growth northern hardwood forest in North America west of the Adirondack Mountains. The smallest properties may include a single lake or historic site. These parks and recreation areas offer recreation opportunities for more than 22 million visitors each year and play an important role in the state’s tourism industry11. A 1997 study showed that visitors to state parks and recreation areas spent about $464 million per year12. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 8 Lake of the Clouds Porcupine Mountains Wilderness State Park. Photo: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:FullLakeOfTheClouds.JPG State Game Areas Michigan’s state game system includes 66 state game areas, six wildlife areas, and four wildlife research areas that encompass more than 365,000 acres and are mainly found in the southern third of the state (83 percent), where most of Michigan’s population resides13. Like the state park and recreation areas, the state game areas include many forested areas that are not managed for timber production but instead for wildlife habitat, hunting and fishing. Many of the state game and wildlife areas are located in Michigan forests, home to many wildlife species. The DNR manages and protects 400 species of game and nongame birds, mammals and their habitats, along with more than 70 state game and wildlife areas. Nationally, Michigan ranks third in licensed hunters (over 750,000), contributing over $1 billion annually to the economy14. Michigan also offers many fishing opportunities with over 11,000 inland lakes and 36,000 miles of rivers and streams15. Michigan owns more freshwater shoreline than any other state (over 3,000 miles) and more total shoreline than any other state except for Alaska16. More than 1.5 million people fish Michigan waters (ranking fifth in the nation in number of anglers) and contribute $2 billion annually to the state’s economy17. Public-Private Partnership: Commercial and Qualified Forestland As of 2012, about 2.2 million acres of privately owned forestland were enrolled in Michigan’s Commercial Forest (CF) program (Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Act 451 of 1994, Part 511)18. The CF program provides a property tax reduction to timber companies and other private landowners who maintain and manage forests for long-term timber production in exchange for allowing public access in their forests for hunting and fishing. Under the CF Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 9 program, landowners can register land (a minimum of 40 acres) as commercial forest which is subjected to a specific tax of $1.25 per acre rather than the standard ad valorem property tax. The State of Michigan annually pays an additional $1.25 per acre to the county on behalf of the landowner. Last year, about $2.7 million was paid by the State of Michigan to counties for CF program parcels. Fifty-eight counties in Michigan have forested acres enrolled in the CF program, approximately 98 percent of which are located in the Upper Peninsula. Like the CF program, the Commercial Qualified Forest Property (QFP) program’s (General Property Tax Act, amended with Public Acts 378, 379, and 380) purpose is to encourage private landowners to maintain and manage forests for timber production. This program does not require public access to their lands. Enrollment exempts landowners from some school operating taxes19. In addition, the QFP programs have a lower minimum land requirement (minimum 20 acres, maximum 320) of contiguous forests, but landowners must have forest management plans certified by a third-party certifying organization. The State of Michigan limits the amount of land eligible for the QFP tax exemption to 1.2 million acres. Michigan DNR Forest Management DNR Forest Planning The DNR uses a three-level planning structure to guide decisions about forestry activities in state forests, and relies on contracts with private industry to carry out prescribed “treatments,” or timber harvest activities that are developed through the planning process. The DNR State Forest planning happens at three levels: • • • Michigan State Forest Management Plan. This is a strategic-level planning document, last updated in 2008, that contains goals and objectives for all resource uses and values related to state forestlands. The length and complexity of the strategy reflects the challenges of managing forests for multiple benefits, achieving and maintaining sustainable forest certification and integrating ecosystem management. Regional State Forest Management Plans (for the Western Upper Peninsula, Eastern Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Peninsula). Drafts of these operational-level planning documents were put out for a public review period in early 2013, with final approval by the DNR director expected by November 30, 2013. Each Regional State Forest Management Plan is organized into Management Areas (MAs)—groupings of roughly 30 forest compartments in each region that range in size from approximately 17,000 to 105,000 acres. When finalized, the Regional State Forest Management Plans will provide “specific projections of harvest levels (in acres) for the major and minor cover types in each MA over the following 10-year compartment review cycle.” Compartment reviews. Tactical-level planning happens when DNR personnel evaluate and conduct inventories of one-tenth of the State Forest each year, looking specifically at the age, health, quality and quantity of trees and other vegetation. The compartment review process also provides an opportunity for staff to look at cross-cutting issues Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 10 related to wildlife and fisheries, minerals, archeological sites, recreational use, wildfire potential and other social dimensions of the area. Treatment Proposals The ultimate result of the DNR planning and review process is a proposed “treatment” for state forest lands. Treatment prescriptions are commonly selective timber harvests, clear cuts, replanting, and related management activities. The process of prescribing treatments occurs at the compartment review level but should ideally be driven by the strategic and operational-level plans. (There is some concern that the current Regional State Forest Management Plans draft more closely resembles compilations of the compartment review prescriptions and harvests rather than guiding strategic documents.) The treatment proposals ultimately dictate which state forest timber is eventually offered for sale. Timber sales on state forest land, according to the DNR, are for the purpose of “harvesting mature and over mature trees, responding to past or predicted insect and disease outbreaks, salvaging fire-damaged trees, enhancing wildlife habitat and improving health of forest trees.”20 Maturity in this context can mean either “financial” or “biologic” maturity, and the distinction has direct impacts on the treatments prescribed by the DNR. Financial and biological maturities are dependent upon many factors including species type, site, stand history, current conditions, and landowner objectives. As defined by Mills and Callahan21, financial maturity is the point in the life of the tree or stand at which the expected increase in value is less than the financial return if the tree or stand was sold and the cash value was invested elsewhere. Conversely, biological maturity of the tree or stand occurs when the tree or stand achieves maximum merchantable volume. In general, faster growing trees tend to reach financial and biological maturity sooner than slower growing trees, but the age of the tree (or time) to financial maturity generally occurs before biological maturity. Financial maturity imposes economic and business management values on the timber production process, which is typically absent from biological maturity evaluations. During the process of developing the desired treatments, the DNR checks to make sure it fits within the goals and limitations of other DNR management plans and guidance documents (such as recreational, wildlife, Special Conservation Area plans, etc.), check for potential rare species, or issues (such as historic structures or archaeological sites, etc). Input can also be gathered from the public, interested associations, advisory groups and wildlife and fisheries management professionals. Timber Sale Contracts and Bids Once a treatment plan is finalized (and specific boundaries and/or trees often marked by DNR staff or contracted timber cruisers) through the compartment review process, the DNR staff issues a permit or contract for an outside entity to bid for the opportunity to harvest the designated timber. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 11 Information about the proposed treatment is contained in a prospectus, which outlines the minimum bid, unique issues of the treatment site, operation parameters, and other pertinent information relevant to the potential purchaser of the standing timber (the “stumpage”) anticipated to be harvested through the treatment. The prospectus is posted on the DNR web page (interested parties can also be put on a mailing list) and offered for sale through a bid process. The winning bidder commits to undertake the prescribed treatment under a State Forest Timber Sale Contract. DNR staff conducts field inspections during the timber harvest verifying that the contracting agent completed the desired activities and followed the planned and approved prescriptions. Current versions of the General Conditions and Requirements can be viewed on the DNR website22. Timber production in the Upper Peninsula; Photo: Hugh McDiarmid Products Sold There are four timber product classes sold by the DNR based on tree size (height and diameter), quality, and species: sawlogs, pulpwood, poles, and bolts23,24,25. • • Sawlogs are trees large enough (9”+ in diameter at breast height (DBH)) to be sawed into boards. Typically sawlogs are the most financially valuable part of the tree and used for lumber. Palletwood, a specific type of sawlog, is lower-quality hardwood timber not suitable for lumber but still usable as slats for pallet-making. Pulpwood are trees that are too small (4-9” DBH) or poor in quality to be sold as sawlogs. These trees are chipped into small pieces and used to manufacture paper, hardboard, or various types of structural board. Pulpwood can be the byproducts of sawlogs, also known as woodchips, and can be used as a biomass solid fuel for providing heat or raising steam for generating electricity. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 12 • • Poles are small trees below sawlog size (4-9” DBH) but suitable for power poles or for simple building work. Bolts are trees at least 8 feet in length. An additional product class not currently sold by the Michigan DNR is veneer. Veneer timber uses larger trees (16”+ DBH) that are cut into continuous sheets of thin wood and used for manufacturing plywood and furniture. Timber also is also classified as either hardwood or softwood. Hardwood comes from broadleaved trees such as oak, maple or birch and is typically used for construction, flooring and furniture. Softwood originates from coniferous trees such as pine, cedar, and fir and is used for furniture and millwork (building materials that are ready-made such as doors, window casing, baseboards, and moldings). Timber volume is measured in standardized units such as board feet, cords, or tons26. Large timber (such as sawlogs) generally are measured in “thousand board feet” (mbf), with one board foot equal to a 1x12x1 board. Chipped wood (such as pulpwood) use cords and tons to express timber volume. A standard cord is a stack of wood that measures 4’x4’x8’ (or 128 cubic feet) while a ton is 2,000 pounds of raw wood and bark. In Michigan, a well-stocked acre of northern hardwoods have the equivalent of 30-40 cords27. Types of Timberland in Michigan The role of state forests is not static; they change as societal needs change. In Michigan, state forests have been shaped by human demands. The demand for particular forest products has driven forestry practices and harvest schedules and changed Michigan forests from softwood sawlogs and firewood to high quality veneer logs and wood fiber. Prior to European settlement, Michigan’s forests were dominated by a mixture of conifer and hardwood forests, particularly hardwoods such as sugar maple, beech, yellow birch, and oak, and softwoods such as pine, hemlock, spruce and fir28. In the current timber landscape, hardwoods make up about 70 percent of all Michigan forests. There are eight primary forest types: aspen, northern hardwoods, jack pine, cedar, red pine, lowland conifer, oak, and lowland deciduous (Figure 3). Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 13 Figure 3.. Current Fo orest Types for f State Forrest Land Other < 2 percent p are all species with less than 2 perrcent of the tottal forest cover area. Source: 2012 Michigan DNR inventory data Over the past 25 yearrs29, five forrest types havve accountedd for more thhan 90 perceent of Michigann’s state foreest timber saales: aspen, northern n harddwoods, red pine, jack pine, p and oakk (Figure 4). 4 No otherr forest type averaged moore than 2.5 percent of tiimber sales in i the last fiffteen years, wiith the excep ption of whitte pine, but it only adds 1.5-3 1 percennt to total salles. Althouggh lowland forest f types comprise off 25 percent of forested acres, a they only contribuute to 4 perceent of timberr sales. Figure 4.. Most Common Forest Types by Timber Sales in 2010 Other < 1 percent are all species witth less than 1 percent p of totaal sales (Paper Birch, Cedar, Swamp S Hardw woods, Sp pruce Fir, Hem mlock, Lowland d Poplar, Mixed d Swamp Conifers, Tamarackk, and Black Sp pruce). Source: Unpublished U 2010 Michigan DNR inventory data Managing Michigan’s State-owne ed Forests | 14 In the past decade, the total acres of Michigan state forest timber sales leveled off, and the composition of these sales changed (Figure 5). More northern hardwood acres were sold while aspen acres declined, resulting in the loss of some volume of sales since aspen stands tend to comprise of more cords per acre than hardwoods30 . The acreage of red pine sales doubled and surpassed aspen sales even though the acreage of aspen sales also increased. Conversely, jack pine sales decreased. An important point to note is that given the increases in aspen and red pine forest types, volumes harvested should increase more than the rate of acreage sold. Because these five forest types account for the majority of all timber sales, we will focus on these types since they have the greatest impact on overall timber sales. Figure 5. Michigan DNR Sales by Acres for the Five Most Common Timber Forest Types State Forest Sales by Forest Type 18,000 16,000 14,000 Acres 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Aspen Jack Pine Year Upland Hardwoods Oak 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 4,000 Red Pine Source: Unpublished 2010 Michigan DNR inventory data Aspen Aspen is the largest cover type in Michigan’s state forests with about 860,000 acres31. Aspen was originally considered a “weedy” species and a minor forest cover type until regeneration of the forests began and specific markets and management strategies were developed in the 1950’s to accommodate the high acreages of early successional aspen on the landscape. Aspen cover consists of nine species: trembling and big tooth aspen, white birch, oak, northern white cedar, white spruce, balsam fir, and jack pine. Aspen stands have been managed for wood products as well as habitat for white-tailed deer, ruffed grouse, woodcock, snowshoe hare, beaver, goldenwinger warbler, and pileated woodpeckers. Aspen wood is soft but strong and is typically harvested as pulp, lumber, hardboard, and insulation board32. Aspen also is used for making paper, matches and boards for saunas. Aspen forests have been in a “trough” for the over a decade, with fewer acres of prime commercial timber harvest age (45-65 years old)33. As highlighted by Pedersen et al. in their unpublished Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 15 2011 timber harvest trends report, most of the accessible older-age aspen has already been cut, and physical constraints limiting timber operations on the remaining acres mean the rest of this age class might not ever be harvested. But overall, harvest of aspen is generally on the rise, increasing from an average of 8,000 acres per year between 2000 and 2006 up to an average of 11,000 acres in the five following years. Pedersen et al. project that aspen harvests will continue to increase as we emerge from the “trough” of recent years, perhaps rising to a level of 14,000 acres per year, and they could conceivably remain that high for 30 to 40 years34. Quaking aspen; Photo: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:QuakiesSEP2005.JPG Northern Hardwoods There are about 500,000 northern hardwood acres on state-owned Michigan lands35. Northern hardwoods have always been a dominate cover type in Michigan’s forests. Northern hardwoods are typically dominated by sugar maple, red maple, American beech, and yellow birch, but basswood, white ash, cherry, northern red oak, trembling and big tooth aspen, red maple, hemlock, white pine, and white spruce are also present. Northern hardwoods represent a late successional stage of forest development and tend to be unevenly-aged in Michigan. According to Pedersen et al.’s unpublished 2011 timber harvest trends report, northern hardwoods are typically handled through selective harvests, with careful selection and marking of individual trees for cutting. This class of trees may yield lower volumes than other species, but can provide substantial economic returns because of the higher market demand for these hardwoods36. These stands also provide habitat for about 113 wildlife species including the ovenbird, American marten, red-shouldered hawk, northern goshawk, black-throated blue warbler, wood thrush, and black bear. Hardwoods are important in construction, flooring, furniture making, boat building, and musical instruments37. Northern hardwoods make up a large portion of timber harvests due to their high value as sawlogs. Pedersen et al.’s unpublished 2011 timber harvest trends report suggests that Northern hardwoods became the forest type with the highest total acreage harvested from state land around the year 2000, surpassing aspen. They credit an improving market for pulpwood Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 16 from hardwood species and the rapid decline in commercial age aspen38. Northern hardwood timber harvests are expected to stay fairly stable in the next few decades. Northern Hardwood Forest; Photo: http://www.nhdfl.org/ Red Pine Michigan’s state forests are comprised of about 260,000 acres of red pines39. About half of Michigan’s original forest cover was dominated by pines, much of which was cut in the early 1900’s. The majority of red pines are of plantation origin planted by the Civilian Conservation Corps in the 1930’s and intensive planting programs in the 1940’s and 1950’s. Most red pines are between 40-60 years old, which corresponds to the planting periods. Almost 80 percent of red pine harvests are due to thinning which occurs every 20-30 years depending on site quality and stand condition, rather than stand regeneration harvests. Final (or regeneration) harvests usually occur at age 60-90 years old. Due to its relatively high strength and straightness, red pine is harvested for many structural uses including poles, posts, cabin logs, construction products, house siding, framing, and furniture40. It is also useful as pulp for making paper. Data from Pedersen et al. point to a solid market for red pine. The financial returns begin to decline with very large trees, and appear to be highest for trees measuring 14-16 inches in diameter41. The high volume of red pine harvests should continue for the next few decades (30+ years) at levels close to 14,000 acres but then begin to level off as the planted trees of the 1930-50’s are harvested. Jack Pine There are about 335,000 acres of jack pine in Michigan’s state forests42. Jack pines stands can be of planted or natural origin, with natural stands commonly found with other deciduous species or as a minor component of aspen stands. Once established, jack pines are usually not managed until the final harvest. Jack pine budworm, a native caterpillar than feeds on jack pine needles, is a serious threat to older age stands of jack pine, but typically causes less damage to younger Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 17 trees. The high mortality resulting from this pest in older stands has driven the state to harvest high levels for older jack pine43. Jack pine stands also are important for several plants and animals of conservation concern such as the Kirtland’s warbler. Management considerations for jack pine must balance commercial forest demands and higher value fiber outputs versus managing shorter rotations for Kirtland’s warbler habitat needs. Jack pine is an important timber species and produces pulpwood, lumber for construction, telephone poles, fence posts, mine timbers and railroad ties as well as Christmas trees44. Due to its multiple uses, jack pine harvest has remained high and steady. Since recent levels of harvest cannot be maintained due to the distribution of age classes, jack pine harvests are expected to decline in the coming years45. There are still some over-mature stands (70+ age range) that can be harvested for a few more years, but the primary age classes for harvesting in the next 3+ decades have less than 30,000 acres of jack pines each. Planted Kirtland warblers’ jack pine stands will reach their planned harvest age of 40 in about 10 to 20 years, but harvest volumes and value are difficult to predict due to the high density of trees per acre. Oak About 210,000 acres of oaks make up Michigan’s state forests46. Oak forests contain several species of oak (red, white, black and/or northern pin) as well as hickory, white pine, red pine, jack pine, or aspen species. Historically, oak was a minor tree species in many forest communities but intensive logging associated with European settlement expanded the occurrence of oak forest types to its present-day dominance. Many oak stands in Michigan are heavily skewed toward the older age-classes; about 65 percent of state-owned oak stands are between 70100 years old, with 30 percent concentrated in the 80-90 year old age class. Oak seedling regeneration can be difficult since it is often outcompeted by more shade-tolerant species, which could affect future timber harvests. According to Pedersen et al.’s unpublished 2011 timber harvest trends report, there are more acres of young oak trees than older oaks. Looking at 10-year intervals of age, the state forests currently hold more acres of oak trees that are less than 10 years old than any in other 10-year interval (i.e., 10-19, 20-29, etc.) in the state47. Oak also is important as habitat for many wildlife species, particularly black bear, elk, white-tailed deer, wild turkey, and ruffed grouse. Oak wood is heavy, hard, strong, and durable and an important source for furniture, veneer, paneling, and flooring48. Timber predictions regarding future oak harvests are difficult to forecast because management of these stands are heavily influence by wildlife and regeneration concerns. oak harvests are likely to decline as the number49. White Pine Michigan’s state forests include about 81,000 acres of white pine50. White pine forest type is the sixth-highest selling timber in Michigan, but only 660-1,800 acres have been sold annually within the last decade compared to 4,900-7,300 acres of oak (the fifth-highest selling forest cover type)51. White pine is a classic case of how the timber industry can shape Michigan’s forests. In the 19th century, white pine was a major component of Michigan’s forests, but as a result of construction Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 18 demand and extensive harvesting, white pine forests were greatly reduced. Today, white pine is a minor component in the forest understory of other cover types but is emerging into the overstory in many oak forest types, gradually becoming more dominant again. Generally, white pine is a major component of late successional forests. White pine wood is lightweight, very strong, and valuable softwood because it has few knots or scars from lower branches. It also is very durable, holding its shape without warping, swelling, shrinking, or splitting. White pine is commonly used for paneling, floors, furniture, and other construction52. U.P. forestland. Photo: Brad Garmon Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 19 PART 2: TRENDS AND DRIVERS OF PUBLIC FOREST POLICY: DEMAND, MARKETS AND TIMBER PRODUCTS Timber Demand In Michigan, the most important products that timber-based companies provide are lumber, furniture, wood-based transportation products, and paper53. Any changes in demand from the lumber and wood product industries influence the sale of timber. When industry and consumer demand rises, demand for timber also increases, improving pricing conditions as well as employment prospects. Thus, in order to determine a reasonable level of timber harvests in Michigan, we also need to understand the demand for timber and wood products. U.S. demand for timber products is closely tied to the performance of the housing market, consumer and business preferences for furniture and paper-based products, growth of the economy, and trends in international trade54,55,56,57,58. For example, the price of sawmilled lumber has been volatile in recent years due to fluctuations in the housing market59. During the recession, many of these factors caused downstream industries that use timber products to decline, resulting in timber revenue declines. The Producer Price Index, calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures average price changes received by U.S. producers for their products (such as lumber, paper, etc.) and captures price movements which are often used as indicators of economic growth for particular goods60. The next four sections will examine the demand for timber through the housing market, wood furniture market, wood transportation market, and paper market. We also will address whether the recession of the last five to six years created a market depression and less demand for timber, as well as the outlook for the timber market in the future. Lumber and the Housing Market Seventy-five percent of the timber companies in Michigan provide lumber. Demand for sawmills and wood manufacturing is highly dependent upon the level of activity in the residential construction sector and housing market fluctuations61. About 45 percent of all lumber is used in home building. Remodeling activities also are major drivers of lumber demand, since remodeling projects require lumber for construction and flooring manufacturing. In general, new home construction is dependent upon consumer demand and the number and cost of houses available for sale. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 20 According to IBISWorld Industry Reports62, earlier in the past decade, demand for residential construction escalated due to low interest rates and favorable lending criteria. But in 2006, demand for newly constructed houses began to fade as many homeowners defaulted on their loans and there was an oversupply of houses. New home construction dropped about 35 percent in both 2008 and 2009, resulting in some of the worst declines since the 1930s. As the housing market collapse spread to other financial markets, tighter lending standards and layoffs in other sectors occurred, leaving homeowners with less income and incentive to pursue remodeling and home improvement projects. As a result, investment in home improvement projects fell. Since lumber and sawmill production is dependent on the construction sector, the decline in the number of new home constructions and renovations resulted in reduced lumber prices, lower sales volumes, and reduced revenue during the recession (Figure 6). Figure 6. Lumber Manufacturing Revenue from 2003 to 2013 40,000 35,000 $ (in millions) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 Source: IBISWorld Report 32111-Sawmills and Wood Production in the U.S. New home sales are increasing again, with the sales of new homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 (for 2013) according to IBISWorld Reports63; however, compared with the long-term (1963-2010) “normal” rate of 678,000 sales per year, they are still quite low. Low housing prices and mortgage rates, along with rising rental prices, are leading to greater demand for new home construction. One sign of a strengthening housing market is that the inventory of new homes for sale is very low and the inventory of existing homes for sale has dropped to a level not seen since 2001. However, to increase the need for new home construction and consequently increase the need for more lumber, the inventory of existing and new homes for sale needs to be reduced. The large numbers of foreclosed homes are likely to constrain new home growth for a few more years until the excess supply of existing homes are more fully absorbed. Along with improved housing sales, investment in remodeling activity is projected to grow during the next few years. Remodeling activity will be aided by increasing per capita income and rising home prices, which will motivate consumers to invest more in their homes. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 21 Other factors that may affect the growth of the lumber industry are competition from imports and substitute building materials. When imports are more competitively priced relative to domestic timber supply, demand and prices for U.S. timber usually fall. Historically, Canada has been a significant source of lumber for the U.S. market, particularly for the new home construction market, supplying an estimated 35 percent of the lumber in the U.S.64. However, the outbreak of the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia has significantly reduced Canada’s timber supply. Consequently, Canadian timber is expected to increase in price and reduce the U.S.’s main competitor for lumber sales, thus resulting in higher revenue for U.S. lumber. The rising use of substitute building materials (such as recycling plastic lumber) also has reduced wood usage in prefabricated buildings, flooring and kitchens. This trend is mainly motivated by environmental concerns and price-based competition and may become a bigger threat to lumber demand in the future. Furniture Market In Michigan, 22 percent of timber companies produce wood furniture65. Like lumber, the household furniture industry also is dependent upon the housing market. Since home furniture is often purchased when households move, a rise in home sales corresponds to increasing demand for household furniture. On the other hand, the office furniture industry relies on corporate profit and employment. As businesses earn more profit, more workers are hired, more office space is leased, and the demand for office furniture rises. According to IBISWorld Reports, the household furniture market also is highly responsive to changes in household disposable income66; during periods of low disposable income, consumers generally delay purchases of new furniture or opt to repair existing furniture. So as home sales stopped and disposable income declined in 2007, household furniture demands declined. From 2007 to 2012, household furniture revenue decreased at a rate of 6 percent per year (to $23.1 billion) (Figure 7). Office furniture demand also fell during the recession as the number of businesses declined, creating a surplus of used office furniture in the market. As a result, businesses with tight budgets used secondhand furniture rather than buying new. The growing popularity of secondhand office furniture reduced demand for newly manufactured office furniture, causing revenue to dive by 26 percent in 2009. 67 Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 22 Figure 7. Household and Office Furniture Manufacturing Revenue from 2003 to 2013 40,000 35,000 $ (in millions) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Home Furniture Year Office Furniture Sources: ISISWorld Industry Report 33712-Household furniture manufacturing in the U.S. and Report 33721-Office furniture manufacturing in the U.S. Household wood furniture revenue is expected to increase in the future due to rises in disposable income, consumer confidence, and new and existing home sales according to IBISWorld Reports68. Household furniture revenue is predicted to rise 1 percent in 2013 (to $23.3 billion). Office furniture revenue also is expected to increase with increases in the number of businesses and corporate profits and declines in the unemployment rate69. Office furniture revenue is predicted to grow 4 percent in 2013 (to $21.5 billion). However, the overall industry is not expected to experience growth over the long run and will continue to face challenges over coming years. Competition with imports will ultimately impede long-term growth prospects, causing the industry to continue to decline. An increase in furniture manufacturing in countries like China and Vietnam has led to greater furniture competition70. Because these countries have lower labor and overhead costs, they can offer lower prices on comparable products, diminishing domestic demand for U.S.-made products. While their quality is often lower, these furnishings have become increasingly popular because of their lower prices and extensive varieties, thus reducing U.S. wood furniture revenue. Additionally, with greater lumber demand in the housing market, wood prices will increase, thus driving up the cost of producing furniture and reducing revenue. Wood-based Transportation Market Wood-based transportation products are supplied by approximately 22 percent of timber companies in Michigan71. Wood product transportation includes wood pallets, wood boxes, wood skids, and other wood containers used to store and transport goods produced by automotive and aircraft manufacturers, fruit and vegetable producers, wholesalers and retailers. In the U.S., about 90-95 percent of pallets are made of wood72. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 23 According to IBISWorld Reports73, the demand for wood transportation products is dependent upon manufacturing activity in the U.S. When demand for manufactured products and food production rises, sales of wood transportation products also rises. When manufacturing activity is slow, the demand for these wood products decreases. In particular, motor vehicle and aircraft manufacturing is a significant determinant of wood transportation product demand. For example, during the recession, automobile manufacturing sales declined by 37 percent and aircraft manufacturing fell 3.4 percent in 2009. As a result, demand for wood-based transportation products decreased. Wood transportation product demand also is influenced by sawmill prices. Nearly 40 percent of all hardwood produced is used for making containers and pallets. Demand for wood transportation products declined during the recession according to IBISWorld Reports74. In 2007, profit margins averaged 4 percent of revenue, but in 2012, it was estimated at 3 percent (Figure 8). In the next few years, revenue is expected to increase at a rate of 3 percent per year (to $7.5 billion). The wood transportation industry will continue to recover due to rising manufacturing activity in the U.S. Figure 8. Wood-based Transportation Manufacturing Revenue from 2003 to 2013 9,000 8,000 $ (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 Year Source: ISISWorld Industry Report 32192-Wood Pallets & Skids Production in the U.S. Nevertheless, the industry will face many challenges over the next few years. Rising manufacturing activity in countries like China, Brazil, Mexico, India and Indonesia will continue to displace domestic wood transportation products. Likewise, as the residential construction sector recovers, wood transportation products will increasingly compete for timber, thus increasing costs. The industry also will contend with rising competition from substitute materials. Common substitutes for wood in pallets and containers include plastic, metal, fiberglass, and corrugated or solid fiberboard. Corrugated and plastic pallets are “safer” ways to ship, because they do not include the common problems associated with wood pallets (such as pest outbreaks, nails and splinters) and are lightweight. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 24 Currently, wood pallets are cheaper than both corrugated and plastic pallets ($40 or $15.75, respectively, vs. $8 for wood). However, with more regulations placed on wood-based packaging materials such as heat-treating and fumigation for pest outbreaks and concerns about bacteria and chemicals contaminating its food-based contents, the cost of wood pallets may surpass its competitors and decrease production. Finally, demand for recycled pallets will likely continue to increase because of environmental concerns, which will reduce demand for newly manufactured pallets, and in turn, decrease timber demand. Paper Market Paper products are supplied by about 10 percent of Michigan’s timber companies75. In the last few years, the paper industry has been challenged by multiple factors, resulting in decreased revenue (Figure 9). Rising input prices, such as price of chemicals and wood pulp, have grown at a faster rate than the price of paper, such that during the recession wood pulp prices grew at an average annual rate of 3 percent while paper prices increased only 1 percent.76. Once the world’s largest producer of paper, the U.S. was overtaken by China in 200877. Now U.S. producers face strong competition from more cost-effective Chinese producers. For example, U.S. paper production accounted for only 19 percent of global production in 2011, decreasing from 27 percent in 2000, while Chinese production increased from about 11 percent in 2000 to 25 percent in 2011. Figure 9. Paper Manufacturing Revenue from 2004 to 2013 70,000 $ (in millions) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 Year Source: ISISWorld Industry Report 322122-Paper Mills in the U.S. Over the next few years, revenue for the paper industry is expected to continue declining and will continue to face challenges. Although demand for paper products may recover in the short term as the economy recovers, paper demand is expected to remain below pre-recession levels according to IBISWorld Reports78. Growing consumer preference for electronic-based Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 25 communication and document archival will continue to reduce paper consumption and the industry’s revenue (Figure 10). Newspaper sales also have declined due to years of competition from the Internet. Figure 10. Demand for Paper Product Manufacturing Linked to Online Services Source: ISISWorld Industry Report 322122-Paper Mills in the U.S. Furthermore, due to environmental concerns, paper recycling also has become more popular in the marketplace; in 2011, approximately 57 percent of all printing paper consumed in the U.S. was recycled79. Although this does not necessarily affect the paper industry itself, it does have significant implications for pulpwood demand and timber harvests. As the demand for paper products decline, demand for wood chips from pulp manufacturers also will decrease, reducing the demand for pulpwood. Future of the timber market: Is there a demand for more timber? The recession influenced many of the industries downstream from the timber industry, which in turn affected the demand for timber products. However, many industries are expected to recover following the recession. The housing market is expected to increase sales which will increase lumber demand, and renewed manufacturing activity will improve palletwood demands from the wood-based transportation industry. Another factor that will probably aid the U.S. timber product industry in the coming years is mountain beetle outbreaks in Canada. The reduction in Canada’s timber supply by the mountain pine beetle will create a greater demand for domestic timber and less competition from the U.S.’s most significant competitor (typically accounting for about 90 percent of timber imports). Yet some industries may continue declining in the future. Rising import competition in the furniture market will decrease some lumber demand, and environmental awareness and electronic communication will decrease pulpwood demand. Finally, other wood product industries may become more important in the next few years. Although the demand for Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 26 pulpwood may decreease for papeer manufactuuring, pulpw wood also is used u in biofuuel productioon. With the recent push h for alternatiive and renewable fuels through poliicy-based inncentive programss, timber-bassed biofuels may continuue to drive some level off pulpwood demand. Michiigan Tim mber Em mploym ment In 2010, Michigan raanked eighthh in state poppulation withh 9.8 millionn people, a 0.6 percent decrease from the 20 000 U.S. census data80. Just J under haalf of Michiggan’s populaation (4.3 miillion people) is employed. Due to the range of reccreational acctivities offerred by state forests, overr 4,000 Miichigan jobs (about 14 percent of tottal jobs) are dependent on o travel/tourrism81. In 20004, travelers in Michigan n spent abouut $17.5 billioon, with 72 percent p of trravel spent on o leisure/touurism 82 purposes focused on outdoor recrreation . The timbber industry itself i provides 0.7 percennt of all empployment in Michigan (~ ~22,500 833 employeees), which iss similar to the national percentage p . Jobs pertaaining to woood product manufactturing emplo oy approxim mately 13,0000 people, thee growing annd harvestingg of trees 1,6600 people, and a sawmill and paper mills m 8,000 peeople84 (Figuure 11). Figure 11 1. Timber Industry-Relatted Jobs in Michigan M Source: U.S. U Departmen nt of Commercce 2012 data and Headwaterrs Economics toolkit t Accordinng to the Micchigan DNR R, these jobs are divided among 2,226 companiess in Michigaan. One quarrter is located in the Uppper Peninsulaa, another quuarter in the northern Loower Peninsuula, and the rest in the sou uthern Loweer Peninsula as of Marchh 201385. Most tim mber-based co ompanies prrovide multipple productss or services.. Seventy-fivve percent off all timber coompanies in Michigan foocus on loggging lumber wood, w 22 peercent producce furniture and fixtures or o wood-based transportation produccts such as pallets p or conntainers for transporting t Managing Michigan’s State-owne ed Forests | 27 goods, 10 percent supply paper and allied products, 2 percent provide forest services or manufacturing, and 1 percent offer construction, boats and trailers, or durable goods/wholesale trade86. Transportation services, retail furniture stores, lumber and building material dealers, and forest nursery products and services are provided by less than 1 percent of timber companies in Michigan. Since 1998, the number of timber industry jobs in Michigan has decreased by about 40 percent (Figure 12) and the number of proprietors by 18 percent (Figure 13)87. This decline in Michigan jobs mirror nationwide timber job declines, which also have decreased by almost 40 percent in the last decade (Figure 12)88. Figure 12. Comparison of Michigan and National Average Percent Decrease in Timber Jobs from 1998 to 2010 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 Percent difference from 1998 baseline 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Year Michigan U.S. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 2012 data and Headwaters Economics toolkit Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 28 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1998 Total number of proprietors Figure 13. Total Number of Timber Proprietors in Michigan from 1998 to 2010 Year Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 2012 data and Headwaters Economics toolkit In Michigan, this decrease resulted in a 41.5 percent loss of wood products manufacturing jobs, a 43.4 percent loss in sawmill and paper mill jobs, and a 35.1 percent loss of growing and harvesting employment, for a total of approximately 24,600 Michigan jobs lost between1998 to 2010 (Figure 14A)89. Michigan timber employment losses have mirrored national trends. Nationally, the loss was 36 percent for wood products manufacturing jobs, 45.5 percent in sawmill and paper mill jobs, and 29.6 percent in growing and harvesting employment (Figure 14B)90. Figures 14A & 14B. Decrease in Timber Sector Jobs between 1998 and 2010 25,000 (A) Michigan Jobs in Timber Sectors (B) U.S. Jobs in Timber Sectors 700,000 20,000 600,000 500,000 15,000 400,000 10,000 300,000 5,000 200,000 100,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Number of Jobs 800,000 Year Growing & Harvesting Sawmills & Paper Mills Wood Products Manufacturing Year Growing & Harvesting Sawmills & Paper Mills Wood Products Manufacturing Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 2012 data and Headwaters Economics toolkit Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 29 States with comparable amounts of total timberland (which includes about 17,000 to 19,000 acres of total timberland in state, national, and private ownerships; Table 4) employ analogous or fewer people than Michigan. The exceptions are Montana, which employs fewer people but has a higher percentage due to an overall lower population, and North Carolina which employs 72 percent more people. All those states also have experienced timber industry job losses in the last 15 years (Figure 15)91. Table 4. Top Ten States by the Amount (in acres) of Total Timberland Rank (by Total Timberland) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Federal State‐owned Total State Timberland Timberland Timberland (in acres) (in acres) (in acres) Georgia 24,351,795 425,681 668,890 Oregon 24,116,566 879,653 11,583,859 Alabama 22,800,385 315,572 708,671 Montana 19,628,391 781,600 12,189,945 Mississippi 19,494,552 221,880 1,324,824 Michigan 19,462,573 4,049,834 2,544,173 Arkansas 18,543,322 441,812 2,375,709 Washington 18,080,795 2,325,897 5,928,064 North Carolina 18,077,329 655,961 1,179,840 Maine 17,191,846 642,547 51,449 Number of Timber Jobs 35,706 33,183 30,988 3,439 16,361 22,491 22,251 26,437 38,773 13,675 Timber Job Percentage of Total Jobs (%) 1.08 2.46 1.98 1.02 1.85 0.68 2.30 1.14 1.20 2.84 Source: USDA Forest Service FIA database Figure 15. Comparing the Percent Decrease in Timber Jobs between States with 17,000 – 19,000 Acres of Timberland 120 80 60 40 20 Michigan U.S. Mississippi Montana Arkansas Washington North Carolina Maine 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Year 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 0 1998 Percent difference from 1998 baseline 100 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 2012 data and Headwaters Economics toolkit Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 30 Michigan Timber Sales, Harvests, and Revenue Over the last 65 years, Michigan state forest timber sales have increased (Figure 16). The amount of timber sold usually is a good indicator of the amount of timber that entered the market. Although there is variability among the years, the number of acres sold increased by about 10,000 per decade, indicating a higher demand for timber over time (Figure 16). Figure 16. Acreage of State Forest Timber Sales from 1940 to 2010 MI State Forest Acres Sold 70,000 60,000 Acres 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Year Source: Unpublished DNR inventory data and Unpublished 2011 Michigan State Forest Timber Harvest Trends Report Harvested values also can be either in acres or a standardized volume measurement and reflects the total cut during the year based on sale completion reports. Harvested timber volumes also have generally doubled over the past 30 years from about 450,000 to 900,000 cords (Figure 17). Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 31 Figure 17. Volume of State Forest Timber Sales in Cords from 1940 to 2010 MI State Forest Volume Sold (cords) 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 Cords 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Year Source: Unpublished DNR inventory data and Unpublished 2011 Michigan State Forest Timber Harvest Trends Report However, state forests’ trends toward higher aspen and red pine harvest (which is comprised of more cords harvested per acre than average) have increased recent timber harvests, which are not reflected in the acreage data (Figure 15). On occasion the amount of timber sold does not correspond to the amount of timber harvested; the lag may be the product of timber harvesters waiting for the market to improve (i.e., waiting for a better price). How Much Timber has Michigan Sold and Harvested in the Last Decade? Over the last 10 years, harvested timber volumes have fluctuated between about 40,000 to 60,000 acres per year and about 600,000 to 900,000 cords per year (ten year average of 770,000 per year) (Figure 18). In general, the number of acres and cords sold increased in the last decade (Figures 18, 19). Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 32 Figure 18. State Forest Timber Sales and Harvests in Acres from 2002 to 2012 65,000 60,000 Acres 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 30,000 Fiscal Year Sold Sales Harvested Sold Trendline Harvested Trendline Source: Unpublished Michigan DNR inventory data. Although the amount of acres harvested stayed fairly consistent the last decade, the total harvested in cords increased which points to more aspen and red pine contributions (Figures 18, 19). However in the last two years, there appears to be a downward trend in harvested acres and cords even though the sales increased. This signifies that although the timber was sold, it has not been harvested yet, potentially due to decreases in timber demand. 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 2002 Cords Figure 19. State Forest Timber Sales and Harvest in Cords from 2002 to 2012 Fiscal Year Sold Sales Harvested Sold Trendline Harvested Trendline Source: Unpublished Michigan DNR inventory data. Good national comparisons to Michigan’s state forests are Michigan’s three national forests: Hiawatha, Huron-Manistee, and Ottawa. With similar forest types as those on state forest lands, Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 33 these three national forests provide a good representation of harvests on the federal forest scene since the recession. Figure 20. Michigan's Three National Forests' Approximate Sawtimber and Pulpwood Volumes Sold from 2008 to 2012 350000 300000 Cords 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2008 Hiawatha Total 2009 2010 Fiscal Year Huron‐Manistee Total Trend 2011 2012 Ottawa (Calculated from 1mbf = 2 cords) Source: USFS Unpublished data. In the last five years, total sawtimber and pulpwood volumes sold from Michigan’s national forests have increased very slightly(Figure 20). These volumes are far below the total sold in Michigan’s state forests (about 66 percent less volume sold) from 2008 to 2012 (Figure 19), but Michigan’s national forests also only occupy approximately 60 percent of the timberland that state-owned forests occupy. Some may argue that low levels of timber harvested on national forests may be due to differences in forest management policies, in which timber production has not been a major federal priority. Thus, private ownership might be a better comparison. According to FIA data92, undifferentiated private ownership (including both commercial and family landowners) removed approximately 75 percent more timber per year from 2000 to 200993. But we must keep in mind that private landowners also hold 70 percent more timberland in Michigan than state forests, so it would make sense that more land would yield greater harvests. In addition, timber availability is not simply a matter of removals. The FIA forest inventory statistics traditionally use the term “removals” rather than “harvests,” but some tree removals may not actually be used for wood products. Nevertheless, the FIA data would suggest that Michigan state forests are harvesting at similar per acreage levels as private landownership. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 34 But What Does This Mean for the Revenue Brought into the State? Michigan state forests have earned about $30-40 million in revenue in the last 10 years from timber harvested and sold (Figure 21). Twenty years ago, pulpwood made up about 70 percent and sawlogs the other 30 percent of revenue, but with declines in aspen pulpwood and increases in hardwood sales, these numbers have been converging over the past 15 years (Figure 22). In the last decade, sawlogs have accounted for approximately 40-50 percent of the revenue, while pulpwood made up the other 50-60 percent (Figure 22). Figure 21. Michigan DNR State Forest Timber Revenue from 2002 to 2012 Sale Values (in millions) $40 $30 $20 $10 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 $0 Fiscal Year Source: Unpublished Michigan DNR inventory data Figure 22. DNR State Forest Pulpwood and Sawlog Revenue from 1986 to 2010 in percent Product Percent of Total SF Timber Sale Value FY 1986-2011 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Sawlogs 20% Pulpwood 10% 0% 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 Fiscal Year Source: Unpublished DNR timber sale data and Unpublished 2011 Michigan State Forest Timber Harvest Trends Report Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 35 Compared to Michigan’s national forests in the last five years, state forests have earned about 65 percent more revenue per year (Figures 21, 23), which corresponds to the percentage of higher harvests on state forests. Both state and national forests have seen revenue increases during the recession.Similar to state forests, revenue from sawlogs from national forests was between 45-60 percent of the total while pulpwood revenue made up the other 45-60 percent (Figure 24), yet sawlog revenue made up a slightly larger portion of total revenue for the three national forests than state forests. Figure 23. Michigan's Three National Forests' Revenue from Sawlog and Pulpwood Sales from 2008 to 2012 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fiscal Year Hiawatha Total Huron‐Manistee Total Trend Ottawa Source: USFS Unpublished data Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 36 Figure 24. Percent Sawlog and Pulpwood Revenue from Michigan’s Three National Forests from 2008 to 2012 70 Percentage (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 Total sawlogs 2010 2011 2012 Total pulpwood Source: USFS Unpublished data Comparison of Michigan State Forests to Other Lake States Minnesota’s state forests are similar to Michigan’s state forests in size, forest type, and climate. Wisconsin’s state forests also are similar to Michigan state forests in terms of forest type and climate, but their forests are much smaller (1.1 million acres of timberland). The Minnesota DNR sold about 700,000 to 900,000 cords of timber per year (with one spike in 2008), which is comparable to Michigan’s timber sales (Figure 25), and generates about $20 million in revenue94. Over the same period, the Michigan DNR sold about 600,000 to 900,000 cords of timber per year, with revenues of $30-40 million per year (Figures 19, 21). Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 37 Figure 25. Comparison of Timber Volumes Sold between Michigan and Minnesota from 2001 to 2010 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Cord 1200000 1100000 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 Year Minnesota Michigan Source: SCS Re-certification of Minnesota DNR Lands 2010 and Unpublished Michigan DNR inventory data Although Michigan state forests’ timber sales cannot be directly compared to Wisconsin’s state forests due its smaller acreage, trends in product volumes and values still can be made. Compared to Minnesota and Wisconsin, Michigan sawlog volume makes up a greater percentage (almost 10 percent compared to 5 percent in Minnesota and Wisconsin) of Michigan’s harvests and accounts for approximately 45 percent of the timber revenue (compared to 10 percent of the revenue in Minnesota and Wisconsin)95. The reason behind this difference is that Michigan tends to have more northern hardwood and red pine forest types than Minnesota and Wisconsin, which also is the main reason why Michigan state forests earn almost twice as much revenue as Minnesota even though both states have similar timberland acreage. Is This Amount of Timber Sold and Harvested Sustainable for the Future? Pederson et al make a convincing case that of the approximately 4 million acres of Michigan timberland, less than 2.5 million acres may be viewed as a “working forest” in terms of timber management96. Three categories of state forest acres are generally unavailable for timber harvests and should not be considered timberland: non-forested lands, severely restricted areas, and lowland forests. • • Non-forested state forest acres account for about 650,000 acres and include areas such as rock, water, marsh, grass, and brush lands. They are important to other management areas such as wildlife habitat and recreation, but they are not timberland. Subtracting 650,000 acres from 4 million acres reduces the amount of Michigan timberland to approximately 3.35 million acres. Another 365,000 acres of forested land are severely restricted or constrained and cannot be managed as timberland. These areas include military lease lands (such as Camp Grayling’s 100,000 acres), roads, motorized trails, utility rights of way, oil and gas wells, sand and gravel mining pits, campgrounds, and other special designations areas such as Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 38 • riparian areas and water access sites. Although individually the amount of land is minuscule, collectively they reduce timberland acres by about 10 percent. Subtracting 365,000 acres from 3.35 million acres reduces the amount of Michigan timberland to about 2.9 million acres. The remaining acres of state forests are largely comprised of tax reverted lands, which essentially means that the lands were unproductive and unwanted. Approximately 850,000 acres of the remaining state forests lands contain lowland forested acres, where there is limited harvest activity because of constraints such as operability problems (rutting and sedimentation), wildlife habitat concerns, tree regeneration problems, and lower timber demand due to the types of trees on these lands. Thus, a majority of lowland forested acres (about 650,000 acres) are not managed for timber due to these constraints. So, subtracting 650,000 acres from 2.9 million acres equals the 2.3 million of “working forest” acres of timberland in Michigan that can be managed for timber. A common and accepted way of estimating sustainable timber yield is to compare annual harvests and annual growth. This process involves describing acres by forest type and multiplying them by their growth rates. The most current growth per acres per year estimate for state-owned forests (according to the current FIA 2009 data) in the northern two-thirds of Michigan is approximately 27.15 ft3/acre/year, while net growth rate on the “working forest” is estimated to be slightly higher at about 29 ft3/acre/year (or about 0.36 cords/acre/year) to account for deducting the slower growing forest types that were deducted from the “working forest” acreage97. (Note, growth rates on privately-owned forest lands are on average about 20 percent higher.) If the less than 2.5 million “working forest” acres are multiplied by the net growth rate of 0.36 cords/acre/year, the estimated current maximum sustainable timber harvest level is about 840,000 cords per year in Michigan. This estimate is near to the ten year period average of 770,000 cords per year from 2002 to 2012 (Figure 19), indicating that current levels of state forest timber harvests are very close to the maximum sustainable harvest volume. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 39 CONCLUSIONS The evolution of our state forest management continues today. New tensions are arising as more demands are placed on the same set of forests: sustainability, recreation, aesthetics and community “sense of place” are added to traditional demands for stumpage and timber products. These demands will continue to create controversy and inspire debate about proper harvest levels on state forest lands and challenge our processes for maintaining sustainable forest certification and supporting the forest products industry. As policymakers and stakeholders contemplate tools and strategies to support and improve the forest-related economy in Michigan, our research suggests the following issues deserve more careful consideration: • Timber harvests and sales from state forest lands have increased over the last halfcentury, even during the recent recession, and are at or nearing maximum sustainable harvest levels. Current state forest harvest rates are comparable to harvest rates on private land, and much higher than harvest rates in Michigan’s national forests. • Michigan state forests earn almost twice as much revenue as Minnesota state forests on a similar-sized land base. This is because in Michigan we have more northern hardwood and red pine sawlog volume and they make up a greater percentage of harvests and help account for approximately 45 percent of the timber revenue (compared to 10 percent revenue in Minnesota and Wisconsin). • Studies which cite high growth-over-harvest rates do not accurately account for numerous factors which limit harvestable timber. Of the approximately 4 million acres of Michigan timberland, less than 2.5 million acres may realistically be viewed as a “working forest” in terms of timber management because much of these lands are either not forest at all (marsh, grass, and brush, for example), are not accessible (military lease lands, roads, campgrounds), or are lowland forested acres that are limited by physical issues or offer only lower market-demand trees. • Michigan’s state forests are influenced and impacted by factors like the U.S. housing market crash, the global recession and international trade, and even trends in technology and tastes for consumer goods. Market forces—including the recession, housing slump and competition from overseas—are larger drivers of the character and volume of Michigan’s timber harvests than either policy or regulatory activities. • Overall, the Michigan forest products industry is shrinking, but our numbers largely mirror nationwide timber job declines. These changes are not unlike other globally influenced industries, with large-scale corporate consolidations and contractions, adoption of cost-cutting strategies and market responses occurring relatively quickly and on a large scale. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 40 In the face of such change, there remains one point of common agreement: after a century of careful reforestation, investment and stewardship, Michigan is blessed with abundant forest resources. Michigan deserves a broad-based forest resource economy that provides timber for human use while diversifying the range of services and good the forest provides us. Our public lands will—if effectively managed, restored, enhanced and promoted—continue to be key tools in rebuilding our state’s economic vibrancy. Managing Michigan’s State-owned Forests | 41 ENDNOTE REFERENCES 1 “List of U.S. States and Territories by area.” Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. Updated 15 March 2013. Wikimedia Foundation. 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