REVIEWS & ANALYSES Water Resources and Land Use and Cover in a Humid Region: The Southeastern United States R. Chelsea Nagy,* B. Graeme Lockaby, Brian Helms, Latif Kalin, and Denise Stoeckel It is widely recognized that forest and water resources are intricately linked. Globally, changes in forest cover to accommodate agriculture and urban development introduce additional challenges for water management. The U.S. Southeast typifies this global trend as predictions of land-use change and population growth suggest increased pressure on water resources in coming years. Close attention has long been paid to interactions between people and water in arid regions; however, based on information from regions such as the Southeast, it is evident that much greater focus is required to sustain a high-quality water supply in humid areas as well. To that end, we review hydrological, physicochemical, biological, and human and environmental health responses to conversion of forests to agriculture and urban land uses in the Southeast. Commonly, forest removal leads to increased stream sediment and nutrients, more variable flow, altered habitat and stream and riparian communities, and increased risk of human health effects. Although indicators such as the percentage of impervious cover signify overall watershed alteration, the threshold to disturbance, or the point at which effects can been observed in stream and riparian parameters, can be quite low and often varies with physiographic conditions. In addition to current land use, historical practices can greatly influence current water quality. General inferences of this study may extend to many humid regions concerning climate, environmental thresholds, and the causes and nature of effects. Copyright © 2011 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. J. Environ. Qual. 40:867–878 (2011) doi:10.2134/jeq2010.0365 Posted online 23 Feb. 2011. Received 18 Aug. 2010. *Corresponding author ([email protected]). © ASA, CSSA, SSSA 5585 Guilford Rd., Madison, WI 53711 USA G lobal concern about securing water for multiple uses has grown in recent years with quickly rising water demands. With an increasing population, land conversion—and urban development in particular—is inevitable in many parts of the world. More than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and it is expected that in the next 20 years, that figure will rise to as much as 60% of the total population (UN Habitat, 2008). Therefore, an understanding of the interactions of landscape changes and water resources in the context of a rising population is imperative. The southern United States represents a prime example of these interactions and is expected to have the largest absolute increase in population (an additional 43 million people) of any region in the United States from 2000 to 2030 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005; Clouser, 2006). Recent water shortages in the Southeast, which were exacerbated by the regional drought from 2005 to 2007, have been linked with the growing regional population (Center for Biological Diversity, 2009; Seager et al., 2009). Urban expansion is expected to claim increasing amounts of forested land in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and the Southern Appalachian Piedmont in the coming years (Wear, 2002). For these reasons, the U.S. Southeast exemplifies the common imbalance between water supply and demand as rising population, land-use change, and climate interact to create periodic water shortages (Sun et al., 2008). Water quantity and quality are important to meet water demands for drinking, irrigation, recreational, and other uses. The total areal coverage and spatial arrangement of forests in the landscape influence water quantity and quality. There is a direct link between forest and water resources, with 70 to 80% of flowing water in the United States originating as precipitation in forests (Binkley et al., 2004). Furthermore, historical and current patterns of land use and cover within a watershed also have the potential to critically influence water resources. Based on a review of published studies, this paper discusses myriad factors that influence water resources, identifies which factors are most critical, and develops general conclusions regarding water quality and quantity in the Southeast. R.C. Nagy, Dep. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown Univ., 80 Waterman St., Providence, RI 02912; B.G. Lockaby and L. Kalin, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn Univ., 602 Duncan Dr., Auburn, AL 36849; B. Helms, Biological Sciences, Auburn Univ., 101 Life Sciences Building, Auburn, AL 36849; D. Stoeckel, College of Veterinary Medicine, Auburn Univ., 105 Green Hall, Auburn, AL 36849. Assigned to Associate Editor H.M. Selim. Abbreviations: IS, impervious surface; SRP, soluble reactive phosphorus; TDS, total dissolved solids; TSS, total suspended solids. 867 Characteristics of the U.S. Southeast The climate of the Southeast is humid subtropical, with an average annual temperature range of 15 to 21°C and a precipitation range of 101 to 152 cm yr−1 (Bailey, 1980). The region can be divided broadly into three physiographic provinces: the Coastal Plain, the Piedmont, and the southern Appalachians (Fig. 1). As noted by Jackson et al. (2004), the lower Coastal Plain is characterized by relatively high precipitation (>120 cm yr−1), high evapotranspiration (>65% of precipitation), and a low runoff ratio (<30%), or the runoff volume divided by the rainfall volume, due to the inherent flatness of much of the region. The upper or hilly Coastal Plain and Piedmont may have less precipitation (<120 cm yr−1) but has a higher runoff ratio (20– 60%) than that of the Coastal Plain as topography becomes steeper. Finally, the southern Appalachians may exhibit higher rainfall (as high as 200 cm yr−1) than the other two regions along with low evapotranspiration and a higher runoff ratio (>50%) compared with the Piedmont or Coastal Plain. Coastal Plain relief is primarily level along much of the Atlantic Coast and the lower Coastal Plain along the Gulf of Mexico. However, the upper Coastal Plain of Alabama and Mississippi is moderately to gently rolling (Martin and Boyce, 1993). Coastal Plain soils are predominantly sandy in nature. The Piedmont is characterized by gently rolling to steep terrain and clayey surface and subsurface soils. As a result of the terrain and soil texture, erosion potential is high throughout the Piedmont and increases with increasing proximity to the Blue Ridge (Appalachians) (Trimble, 2008). The Southern Appalachians reflect wide variation in elevation (225–900 m) and steep topography. Soil parent material here is diverse and includes sandstone, shale, and a variety of other materials. Consequently, soil particle size varies widely as well (Martin and Boyce, 1993). Overall, the predominant soil order in the Southeast is Ultisols, which are strongly leached and nutrient poor with a subsurface accumulation of clay (Bailey, 1980; NRCS, 2009). The natural climax vegetation of uplands in the Southeast consists of forests of evergreen or live oak (Quercus virginiana, Quercus geminata, and Quercus laurifolia), laurel (Laurus nobilis and Persea borbonia), magnolia (Magnolia grandiflora and Magnolia virginiana), and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) (Bailey, 1980). Swamps along the Atlantic Coast contain cypress Fig. 1. Physiographic regions of the U.S. Southeast. 868 (Taxodium distichum var. distichum and Taxodium distichum var. nutans) and gums (Liquidambar styraciflua and Nyssa sylvatica). Depressions in savannas, known as bogs or pocosins, are dominated by evergreen shrubs (Bailey, 1980; Ainslie, 2002). Flatwoods areas in the Coastal Plain are dominated by Pinus sp. The Southeast has undergone extensive changes in land use, with a notable period of agricultural expansion that began in the 19th century and ended by 1930 (Wear, 2002; Trimble, 2008). A period of agricultural abandonment and subsequent reforestation ensued. Forest industry gained prominence throughout the region in the early 20th century (Wear, 2002). More recently, agricultural and forested lands have been converted to urban land uses (Table 1). In 2002, urbanization was identified as the leading cause of forest loss within the region. Increases in urban land use are expected for the Southeast in coming years to accommodate the growing population (Wear, 2002). Hydrological Effects Watershed studies have elucidated the relationship between forests and water resources. Reduced forest cover decreases evapotranspiration, and thus increases in streamflow are often observed after forest cutting (Hibbert, 1967; Bosch and Hewlett, 1982). Forest harvesting increased streamflow from 69 to 210 mm yr−1 in a study that included 13 Southern states (Grace, 2005). Conversely, reforestation can decrease water yield. As an example, streamflow decreases of 76 to 152 mm yr−1 were observed after 75% reforestation of the Pine Tree Branch watershed in western Tennessee (Bosch and Hewlett, 1982). The precipitation regime influences the relative effects after forest conversion, and absolute changes in streamflow are greatest in areas with the highest precipitation (Hibbert, 1967). The dominant tree species or functional type further influences the change in water yield after forest harvesting or regrowth. For example, conversion of hardwood to pine in the southern Appalachians has been reported to decrease annual streamflow by as much as 20% and to dampen high- and low-flow oscillations in the hydrograph (Jackson et al., 2004). Bosch and Hewlett (1982) reported that, for every 10% decrease in forest cover, an average 40-mm increase in water yield can be expected for pine forests, and an average 25-mm increase can be expected for deciduous hardwoods (Table 2). Several studies have proposed a threshold of forest cover removal, which, when exceeded, leads to a measurable difference in water yield (or another parameter). According to Stednick (1996), 20% removal of forest cover altered water yield in the Appalachians, but the threshold may be as high as 45% in the Coastal Plain or Piedmont. However, Stednick (1996) and Bosch and Hewlett (1982) noted that few studies had examined changes in water yield under conditions of light forest removal (<20%). It is possible that the lack of hydrologic response data reflecting <20% removal may contribute to that percentage’s identification as a threshold. Temporal variation is an important consideration regarding potential effects of changes in forest cover on water yield. The observed pattern of decreased streamflow after afforestation is not permanent. After a forest has reached maturity (∼30 yr for pines), streamflow may approach the pre-afforestation level due primarily to reduced transpiration rates and to a lesser extent Journal of Environmental Quality • Volume 40 • May–June 2011 reduced leaf area index and therefore reduced interception (Scott and Prinsloo, 2008). Results from Hubbard Brook, Marcell, Fernow, and Leading Ridge Experimental Forests in the northeastern United States indicated that with natural regrowth, water yield increases may diminish within 3 to 10 yr after forest cutting (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). This suggests that longer rotations may be able to mitigate the negative effects of afforestation on water yield. Also, after deforestation, the effects on water yield are promptly apparent, whereas the effects of reforestation must be observed as the forest develops over time (Douglass and Swank, 1972; Andréassian, 2004). Thus, studies lasting only a few years may not capture the full hydrological effects of forest establishment and growth. More long-term studies are needed to quantify changes in water yield over time after afforestation. Increases in streamflow and peak flows have been observed after conversion of forest to agriculture (Hibbert, 1967), whereas the effects of agricultural conversion on baseflow are less clear. With agricultural conversion, soils may become compacted, thus reducing infiltration and increasing overland flow. Increased overland flow can decrease groundwater recharge, but evapotranspiration is also reduced, which can increase recharge. Zhang and Schilling (2006) reported increased streamflow (3–13 mm mo−1) and baseflow (4–12 mm mo−1) with conversion of perennial vegetation to seasonal row crops in the Mississippi River basin. For comparison, peak discharge in tilled land was 12 times greater than peak discharge in a forested pasture in southwestern Wisconsin (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). As a consequence of increased flow rates in agricultural lands, erosion is often increased and can be highly problematic (discussed below). Similar to the conversion of forest to agriculture, conversion of forest to urban land uses greatly reduces infiltration due to the introduction of impervious surfaces (IS), which can increase runoff velocity (Table 3). Infiltration was reduced by 60% as a result of rapid urbanization in the White Rock watershed in Texas, which changed from 87% rural in 1961 to 95% urban by 2002 (Vicars-Groening and Williams, 2007). As a result of reduced infiltration and increased runoff velocity, urban flow hydrographs may entail more rapid and larger pulses (i.e., becoming less stable or more flashy in nature) (e.g., Fig. 2); this is a reflection of more frequent and intense flooding in urban compared with forested areas (Beighley et al., 2003; Calhoun et al., 2003; Schoonover et al., 2006; Crim, 2007; de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). In Houston, Texas, increases in watershed imper- Table 1. Major land uses (as of 2002) by state of the U.S. Southeast.† State Alabama Arkansas Florida Georgia Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas Virginia Cropland Pasture, range Forest Land use Transportation, industrial, parks, wildlife Urban Other ———————————————————————————— % ———————————————————————————— 11.51 5.87 70.58 4.68 3.51 3.85 28.94 6.94 55.14 4.60 1.75 2.63 10.77 13.62 42.41 13.06 11.47 8.67 13.61 3.31 64.23 5.38 6.49 6.97 32.85 9.06 46.99 6.32 3.08 1.70 19.15 6.14 49.22 6.91 3.84 14.75 20.20 7.40 61.86 3.19 2.00 5.35 16.68 2.81 59.87 7.68 7.36 5.61 34.65 39.79 14.18 3.72 1.68 5.97 12.07 2.33 63.83 5.57 6.23 9.97 26.86 4.53 51.77 8.98 5.94 1.93 24.14 58.65 7.03 3.27 2.74 4.19 16.45 5.42 60.66 6.27 6.02 5.18 † Data from http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/majorlanduses/. Table 2. Examples of hydrological, physicochemical, and bacterial responses of water resources with changes in forest cover and introduction of impervious surfaces. Land use/cover change 10% change forest 10% change forest >10% IS cover (vs. forested) 10–20% IS cover (vs. forested) 20–30% nonforest (vs. >90% forest) 20–30% nonforest (vs. >90% forest) 20–30% nonforest (vs. >90% forest) 20–30% nonforest (vs. >90% forest) >13% IS cover (vs. forested) >13% IS cover (vs. forested) 3–4% urban (vs. forested) Response 40 mm change water yield—pines 25 mm change water yield–deciduous hardwoods 32% of 159% increase in peak flows 2× increase in runoff 3× increase in TSS† 2–3× increase in TDS 4–5× increase in turbidity 5–8× increase in NO3 concentration 3.8–7.3× increase in median NO3 concentration 3× increase in median Cl concentration 4–5× increase in fecal coliform concentration in baseflow Location Source many Bosch and Hewlett (1982) many Bosch and Hewlett (1982) Houston, Texas Olivera and DeFee (2007) many Paul and Meyer (2001) Blue Ridge physiographic region Price and Leigh (2006) Blue Ridge physiographic region Price and Leigh (2006) Blue Ridge physiographic region Price and Leigh (2006) Blue Ridge physiographic region Price and Leigh (2006) west Georgia Crim (2007) west Georgia Crim (2007) Appalachian Mountains, Bolstad and Swank (1997) North Carolina † TDS, total dissolved solids; TSS, total suspended solids. Nagy et al.: Water Resources and Land Use in a Humid Region 869 Table 3. Examples of changes in hydrologic flows expected with increasing imperviousness.† Component Evapotranspiration Runoff Shallow infiltration Deep percolation Total Imperviousness 0% 10–20% 35–50% 40% 10% 25% 25% 100% 38% 20% 21% 21% 100% 35% 30% 20% 15% 100% 75–100% 30% 55% 10% 5% 100% † Data from Paul and Meyer (2001). vious cover contributed to a 159% increase in peak flows (Table 2), although a greater portion of this increase was attributable to precipitation than increased watershed IS (Olivera and DeFee, 2007). Hydrographs from urban watersheds near Columbus, Georgia and Birmingham, Alabama showed that during storm events, discharges were flashier than those from forested watersheds (Schoonover et al., 2006; McMahon et al., 2003). Fig. 2. Examples of (a) forested and (b) urban hydrographs from west Georgia. Adapted from Crim (2007). 870 Urbanization also reduces the contribution of baseflow to streamflow and decreases flows in the intervals between storms (Rose and Peters, 2001; Wang et al., 2001; Calhoun et al., 2003). For example, the contribution of baseflow to streamflow in Peachtree Creek near metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia has been reduced from 50 to 30% as the urban area has expanded in recent decades (Calhoun et al., 2003). Rose and Peters (2001) reported that low-flows in urban watersheds near Atlanta were 25 to 35% lower than the low-flows in less urbanized watersheds. Thus, in urban watersheds, the high-flow and the low-flow extremes are enhanced (Lazaro, 1990; Moscrip and Montgomery, 1997; Rose and Peters, 2001), and hydrographs reflect this instability. However, low-flows may be compensated somewhat by discharges from wastewater plants, and thus the effects on baseflow can be somewhat variable (Paul and Meyer, 2001). With conversion of forests to urban and agricultural uses, water supply will become a more pressing issue in the Southeast. Sun et al. (2008) used hydrological, demographic, climate change, and land-use change models to illustrate the interactive effects of these drivers on water stress through the year 2020. In that study, water supply stress depended greatly on which climate scenario was used, emphasizing the need for accurate, detailed climate change predictions. The scenario simulating population growth only suggested that increased water stress is likely near Raleigh (North Carolina), Atlanta (Georgia), and Tallahassee (Florida) due to fast growing populations—and thus demand—in these cities. The land-use change-only scenario predicted slight decreases in water stress in Florida and the Piedmont due to increased water yield after forest conversion to urban uses. However, the combined scenario with climate change, population growth, and land-use change predicted increased water stress in the Southeast because climate change and population growth had stronger effects on water supply than land-use change. Although not accounted for in that study, the authors point out that water availability will also be affected by water quality, and thus these considerations must be included in further model developments (Sun et al., 2008). Updated projections of water stress are necessary as climate change, land-use change, and population growth estimates are refined. Although water yield may be reduced in forested watersheds compared with urban watersheds, the percent of water available for use may be greater in forested watersheds. Larger volumes of water are transported through watersheds more rapidly in urban areas (as indicated by rising limbs with steeper slopes on the hydrograph), but access to that water for use may be limited. For example, water available for consumption (Wc) was modeled for two small watersheds in close proximity to Birmingham, Alabama as a function of withdrawal capacity Journal of Environmental Quality • Volume 40 • May–June 2011 (Ww) and the minimum flow required for environmental purposes (Qmin). The watersheds were similar in size but differed in terms of imperviousness (Site 1 = 66% forest, 16% urban; Site 2 = 6% forest, 91% urban). The Qmin was set equal to Q10%, or flow that was exceeded 90% of the time. An estimate of Ww was derived from data for similar areas in Alabama and was approximately 809 L d−1 person−1 or 0.47 m3 s−1 for a population of 50,000. Flow was standardized based on watershed area. The Wc value was estimated over a 60-d period from 16 Aug. 2009 to 15 Oct. 2009, a period that was unusually wet in Alabama. Proportions of Wc ranged from 24 to 60% in the low IS watershed to between 17 and 38% for the more heavily urbanized catchment. Differences between Site 1 (low urbanization) and Site 2 (the more urbanized watershed) were more pronounced at higher withdrawal rates (Fig. 3). Physicochemical Effects Alterations in forest cover can change soil erosion and sediment deposition processes. Erosion often accompanies forest conversion to other land uses because the stabilization of soils provided by vegetation has been diminished. This is especially the case when riparian areas are cleared. The extent of forest loss within the watershed determines the degree of sediment erosion. Price and Leigh (2006) compared streams from lightly impacted (>90% forest) and moderately impacted (70–80% forest) watersheds in the Blue Ridge physiographic region. Total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), and turbidity were higher (3×, 2–3×, and 4–5× for TSS, TDS, and turbidity, respectively) in moderately impacted streams than in lightly impacted streams (Table 2) (Price and Leigh, 2006). Similarly, Sutherland et al. (2002) found that streams with 13 to 22% nonforested catchments (disturbed streams) had significantly higher turbidity compared with catchments with <3% nonforested area (reference streams). This pattern was observed in baseflow and in stormflow, although the difference between disturbed and reference stream turbidity was slightly greater in stormflow (Sutherland et al., 2002). Generally, there is a higher percentage of smaller-sized particles with increasing nonforested area (Sponseller et al., 2001; Sutherland et al., 2002). Watershed forest cover also greatly influences stream nutrients. Riparian vegetation and soils may act as a biogeochemical or physical filter by assimilating nutrients in runoff before the water reaches the stream. Nitrate (NO3−) concentrations were higher in watersheds with greater nonforested area in the Little Tennessee River (Price and Leigh, 2006), the Upper Tennessee River (Scott et al., 2002), and Coweeta Creek (Bolstad and Swank, 1997). Similarly, in the Upper Roanoke River Basin, total inorganic nitrogen ranged from 0.105 to 0.932 mg L−1 and increased as the percentage of nonforested area in the catchment increased (R2 = 0.59; p = 0.02) (Sponseller et al., 2001). Ammonium (Price and Leigh, 2006), orthophosphates (Price and Leigh, 2006), and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) (Sponseller et al., 2001) did not show differences as forest cover varied. In the study by Price and Leigh (2006), ammonium and orthophosphate concentrations were below detection limits; consequently, subtle changes could not have been detected. Sponseller et al. (2001) noted that variation in water chemistry Fig. 3. Water availability (%) in urban (Site 1) vs. forested (Site 2) watersheds near Birmingham, Alabama with increasing withdrawal rates and a minimum flow (Qmin) amount of 10%. Unpublished data from L. Kalin. was influenced more strongly by geomorphology than by land use. Conversion of forests for agricultural use has been linked to erosion and subsequent sediment deposition in the Southeast, particularly in the Piedmont. Agricultural land use during the cotton era, ending around 1920, was extensive enough to erode an average of 10 to 30 cm of topsoil from the entire Piedmont physiographic region (Trimble, 2008). Historic land use in the Piedmont reportedly contributed to 1.6 m of sediment deposition in the Murder Creek floodplain (Jackson et al., 2005) and an average of 1.79 m of sediment deposition in Bonham Creek and Sally Branch watersheds (Fig. 4) (Casarim, 2009). Similar patterns have been reported in the Northeast, including a study near New Haven, Connecticut, where sediment deposition increased 40% after European settlement in New England (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). Trimble (2008) noted that, as erosive land uses (particularly agriculture) declined in the southeastern Piedmont after the 1930s, stream turbidity declined sharply. Sediment deposition can be greater in large river systems, such as the floodplains of the Roanoke River in North Carolina, where up to 6 m of sediment deposition has been recorded (Dr. Cliff Hupp, USGS, personal communication). Fig. 4. Sediment deposition in west Georgia Piedmont streams. Photo from F. Casarim. Nagy et al.: Water Resources and Land Use in a Humid Region 871 Eroded sediment can also be deposited in stream channels and gradually exported over time, complicating the attribution of sediment erosion to any individual event. For example, differentiation of current versus historical land-use practices requires isotope or other fingerprinting techniques (Walling, 2005). Lastly, in agreement with the comparison of sediment particle size in forested vs. nonforested area, as agricultural intensity increased, the percentage of silt increased in the Upper Little Tennessee River (Hagen et al., 2006). Forest conversion to agricultural land may shift a landscape from biogeochemical sink to source activity. Higher stream nutrient concentrations are common in agricultural areas due to fertilizer application and riparian vegetation removal. Higher NO3− concentrations have been found in agricultural watersheds than in forested watersheds in the Appalachians (Hagen et al., 2006), the Piedmont (Crim, 2007), and the Coastal Plain (Lowrance et al., 1985; Lehrter, 2006). For example, NO3− concentrations increased fourfold along a gradient from forest to heavy agriculture (Hagen et al., 2006). In Maine, mean NO3− concentrations were 0.10 and 2.0 mg L−1 for forested and agricultural watersheds, respectively (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). In the southeastern Coastal Plain, Lowrance et al. (1985) found higher loads of chloride (Cl−) and base cations such as potassium (K+), calcium (Ca2+), and magnesium (Mg2+) in watersheds with more agricultural use. In contrast, Lowrance et al. (1985) and Crim (2007) found that phosphorus was not affected by the proportion of crop and pasture area within Coastal Plain and Piedmont watersheds, respectively. However, mean SRP concentrations doubled along the forest-to-agriculture gradient in the Appalachians (Hagen et al., 2006). Urban land use promotes increased sediment erosion compared with forested land due to the presence of IS and increased runoff velocities (Lenat and Crawford, 1994; Paul and Meyer, 2001; Schoonover et al., 2005; Clinton and Vose, 2006). Total suspended solids concentrations were five times higher in an urban stream than in the reference stream in the Appalachians (Clinton and Vose, 2006), and TDS concentrations were twice as high in urban streams compared with forested streams in the west Georgia Piedmont (Schoonover et al., 2005; Crim, 2007). Sediment export may be more associated with stormflow than baseflow, but this is not always the case. Additionally, construction practices can be particularly conducive to increased erosion, with large bursts of sediment movement occurring during flood events. Paul and Meyer (2001) reported that sediment yields from developing catchments during stages of construction can be two to four orders of magnitude larger than yields from forested catchments. However, in watersheds with old or stable urban land use, streams may become incised and sediment starved because higher flows have scoured and downcut the stream channel over time or because sediment sources are diminished when channels are covered in concrete (Groffman et al., 2003). In contrast to the previously explained patterns of smaller sediment particles with increasing nonforested area, Holland et al. (2004) and Lerberg et al. (2000) found either no significant relationship or fewer fine particles with increasing urban area in the Coastal Plain. The contrasting results associated with particle size exportation may reflect differences 872 among the clayey Piedmont surface soils vs. the sandy counterparts of the Coastal Plain. Sources of nutrients in urban areas include fertilizer and wastewater discharge. Median NO3− concentrations in urban areas (>24% IS) were significantly greater than in nonurban areas (<5% IS) in baseflow (1.64 and 0.61 mg L−1 for urban and nonurban areas, respectively) and stormflow (1.93 and 0.36 mg L−1 for urban and nonurban areas, respectively) (Schoonover and Lockaby, 2006). Ammonium concentrations were significantly greater in urban streams than nonurban streams in stormflow only (0.15 mg L−1 for urban vs. 0.00 mg L−1 for nonurban) (Schoonover and Lockaby, 2006). Streams may display nutrient responses at low levels of urban development. Again the concept of a threshold arises, but here, rather than a threshold to forest removal, it is a threshold to increasing IS cover. Some researchers have suggested that 10% imperviousness is the level at which effects on water resources can begin to be observed and that once 30% imperviousness is reached, the results can be severe (Fig. 5a) (Arnold and Gibbons, 1996; Calhoun et al., 2003). Yet, pronounced increases in sulfate (SO42−), Na+, and K+ concentrations, pH, and a general chemical index were reported in Piedmont streams at <5% watershed imperviousness (Harned and Cuffney, 2005; Crim, 2007). These seeming contradictions regarding minimum thresholds may be a function of how those are defined. For example, the stylized response graph from Arnold and Gibbons (1996) (Fig. 5a) reflects a linear relationship between imperviousness and stream condition, with thresholds identified based on subjective criteria. Alternatively, some studies have shown the response relationship to be curvilinear (Fig. 5b), with thresholds identified at points of inflection on the response curve. The latter approach may tend to yield lower estimates. Aquatic Biota Land conversion greatly affects the physical stream environment. Decreased forest cover, particularly in riparian areas, can increase water temperatures and subsequently decrease dissolved oxygen, creating inhospitable living conditions for aquatic organisms. Furthermore, sediment and nutrient inputs from agricultural and urban lands can be excessive. Increased nutrients can cause algal blooms or eutrophication and further deplete dissolved oxygen. Also, altered hydrological conditions, such as increased discharge, can greatly influence instream conditions. Together with the associated changes in habitat, all of these effects place stress on aquatic organisms. Some organisms are better suited to handle these stresses than others; thus, changes in community assemblages frequently accompany land-use and cover changes. Typical responses include increased abundance of exotic and tolerant species, reduction of sensitive species and overall diversity, and altered productivity (Meyer et al., 2005; Walsh et al., 2005). Most of the literature cites a range from 8 to 20% IS and 30 to 50% agriculture as thresholds for biota (Paul and Meyer, 2001; Allan, 2004). These values vary with the response variable (macroinvertebrates, fish, etc.) and with region studied. As such, variable and location issues impede the broad utility of thresholds for monitoring and management (Groffman et al., 2006). There is also evidence Journal of Environmental Quality • Volume 40 • May–June 2011 that these relationships are too complex for a single threshold to apply to biotic parameters (Allan, 2004). After forest conversion to urban and agricultural uses, periphyton diversity may be reduced while biomass is increased due to the increase of stream nutrients or temperature (Biggs, 1996; Burkholder, 1996; Sponseller et al., 2001). For example, maximum temperature explained 73% of the variation in chlorophyll a in southwestern Virginia streams (Sponseller et al., 2001). The relationship with diversity may be more complicated than originally thought. At moderate levels of nutrient enrichment, algal species richness and diversity may increase (Delong and Brusven, 1992; Chessman et al., 1999). However, past a certain point of nutrient enrichment, diversity decreases, and assemblages are often dominated by only one or several taxa (Lobo et al., 1995; Juttner et al., 1996). With land-use change, macroinvertebrates display similar patterns to periphyton, including reduced diversity and richness (Pratt et al., 1981). There may also be a shift to more tolerant organisms (Lenat and Crawford, 1994). With extensive land conversion, assemblages that act functionally as shredders may be replaced by collector or scraper functional feeding groups (Roy et al., 2003; Hagen et al., 2006; Helms et al., 2009). However, in low- and moderate-intensity agriculture in the Upper Little Tennessee River watershed, shredder abundance increased in response to altered habitat conditions (increased light, higher water temperatures) and ample nutrients and food supplies (Hagen et al., 2006). Land conversion and habitat alteration have been linked with marked changes in mollusk populations in the Southeast. Direct (channelization, dams, dredging) and indirect (land use in the floodplain) changes to streams can degrade habitat for mollusk populations (Gillies et al., 2003). Examples of anthropogenic effects on mollusks include declines in mussel abundance in the Line Creek watershed in Georgia (Gillies et al., 2003) and the Coosa River watershed covering parts of Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee (Gangloff and Feminella, 2007). However, in watersheds where agricultural land use is widespread and somewhat uniform, geologic and landscape properties, such as parent material, soil type, and topography, can be better predictors of mollusk populations than the current land use (Allan, 2004). Similar to the other organisms discussed, fish are affected by hydrological and morphological stream changes, which alter habitat conditions. For example, increased siltation and sedimentation from forest conversion can homogenize habitats. Greater siltation and sedimentation have also been linked with decreased abundance of benthic feeding fish and endemic species (Berkman and Rabeni, 1987; Roy et al., 2005), increased abundance of cosmopolitan species (Walters et al., 2003; Roy et al., 2005), and reduced fish spawning success (Sutherland et al., 2002). In west Georgia, Helms et al. (2005) found signs of degraded fish health, including a positive correlation between an increase in tumors and lesions (p < 0.001) and % urban area and a negative correlation between biotic integrity (p < 0.001) among fish species and % urban area. Lastly, nonnative fish species can be introduced intentionally for recreation and commercial purposes or unintentionally by the displacement of fish in other areas (Marsh and Minckley, 1982). Due to their dual habitats in aquatic and terrestrial systems, amphibians are highly sensitive to changes in land use and Nagy et al.: Water Resources and Land Use in a Humid Region Fig. 5. Comparison of physicochemical responses of streams to increases in impervious surfaces. (a) Stylized linear response of stream health (adapted from Arnold and Gibbons, 1996). (b) Curvilinear response of sulfate concentration (adapted from Crim 2007). cover, especially changes within the riparian zone. Amphibian abundance may be a function of the width and the length of the riparian buffer, although breaches in the stream buffer may mask a relationship between abundance and buffer width (Miller et al., 2007). In the Coastal Plain of Georgia, Muenz et al. (2006) found increased instream larval salamander abundance in buffered streams but did not find a relationship for total amphibian abundance, presence, or absence with buffered vs. unbuffered streams. In the North Carolina Piedmont, southern two-lined salamander (Eurycea cirrigera) populations have decreased by about 44%, and northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) populations have decreased as much as 30% in the last three decades with increasing urbanization (Price et al., 2006). Hydrological changes that accompany land conversions are also important for amphibians. Barrett and Guyer (2008) reported that with increased flood frequency, salamander density and survivorship decreased in the Georgia Piedmont. Furthermore, increased spate flow velocities associated with urbanization can decrease larval retention but result in a higher growth rate for those animals remaining (Barrett et al., 2010a; Barrett et al., 2010b). Increased peak flows, reduced base flows, and loss of rocky habitat were contributing factors to declines in salamander abundance in urban streams in Wake County, North Carolina (Miller et al., 2007). Human and Environmental Health Potential threats to human and environmental health are associated with the introduction of various contaminants from urban 873 and agricultural land uses, including sediment, pathogens, and nutrients. The primary influence on future water quality in the southern United States will be nonpoint-source pollution from urban sprawl (West, 2002) and increased levels of pathogens, heavy metals, pharmaceuticals, and other substances have been shown to increase as watersheds become urbanized. In urban and industrial streams in the South Carolina Coastal Plain, sediment trace metal concentrations (Cu, Cr, Pb, Zn, Cd, and Hg) were 2 to 10 times higher than in forested streams (Sanger et al., 1999a). Metals are problematic because they do not degrade over time but rather tend to accumulate in the sediments of water bodies and floodplains (Klapproth and Johnson, 2000). For example, studies on the Chickahominy River in Virginia found Pb, Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, Zn, and Sn in floodplain sediments downstream of Richmond (Klapproth and Johnson, 2000). Additionally, organic contaminants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, were significantly higher in urban/industrial and some suburban streams compared with forested streams (Sanger et al., 1999b). Lastly, cumulative contaminant loading had a positive relationship with % IS in the South Carolina Coastal Plain (R2 = 0.59; p < 0.0001) (Holland et al., 2004). Another group of chemicals linked with increasing urban land uses includes personal care products. Among these are perfumes, deodorants, pharmaceuticals, and hospital and veterinary wastes. The widespread prevalence of these items has increased drastically in the last few decades, and water filtration systems and water regulations have not responded adequately to address them (Kolpin et al., 2002; Bolong et al., 2009; Yu and Chu, 2009). For instance, ibuprofen (113 ng L−1) and an antimicrobial agent, triclosan (193 ng L−1), were detected in stream samples below a wastewater treatment plant on the West Prong Little Pigeon River in eastern Tennessee (Yu and Chu, 2009). In a study examining levels of antibiotics, prescription and nonprescription drugs, steroids, and hormones in streams in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago, 80% of the streams had one or more of the contaminants (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). The results of the Clean Water Act included decreases in municipal wastewater discharges (West, 2002), yet bacteria counts remain high in urban areas. Specifically, populations of Enterococcus, Escherichia coli, fecal coliform, and fecal streptococcus are often higher in urban streams than in forested streams (Mallin et al., 2000; Schoonover et al., 2005; Clinton and Vose, 2006; DiDonato et al., 2009). For example, as the IS cover increased from about 5 to 25% in southeastern North Carolina, fecal coliform density increased from 10 to 100 CFU 100 mL−1 (Mallin et al., 2000). Escherichia coli concentration was also strongly correlated with IS cover (r = 0.973; p = 0.005) and watershed population (r = 0.986; p = 0.002) (Mallin et al., 2000). In a study near Columbus, Georgia, median fecal coliform concentrations were roughly an order of magnitude higher in urban streams than in forested streams (1500 vs. 112 MPN 100 mL−1 for urban and forest, respectively, in baseflow and 2750 vs. 261.5 MPN 100 mL−1 for urban and forest, respectively, in stormflow) and were significantly related to discharge (R2 = 0.15; p = 0.01 for urban streams) (Crim, 2007). Factors contributing to higher bacterial concentrations in urban areas include elevated water temperatures and increased turbidity as bacteria survival increases 874 with the opportunity to bind to sediment particles (Mallin et al., 2000). In addition, designs of sewer systems may play a large role, as evidenced in Columbus, Georgia, where combined stormwater–sewer overflows were associated with high fecal coliform counts in some cases (Crim, 2007). Domestic animals may be a contributing factor as well (Mallin et al., 2000). Excess nutrients can greatly degrade water resources when algal blooms are stimulated and dissolved oxygen is depleted. Unpleasant odors, loss of recreational value, and toxicity to fish and other aquatic organisms are results of eutrophication caused by excess nutrients in water (Baird, 1990; Klapproth and Johnson, 2000). These conditions have been reported in the Pamlico, Neuse, and Chowan Rivers in eastern North Carolina (Baird, 1990). Pesticide use is prevalent throughout agricultural lands, and herbicides account for 70% of the pesticides used today (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). In the headwaters of the Suwanee River Basin near the Georgia–Florida border, prometon, metalachlor, and atrazine were detected in concentrations of 0.14, 0.09, and 0.07 μg L−1, respectively, and were elevated in the spring (Oaksford, 1994). However, most concentrations were below levels considered to be a health risk. Row crop pesticide application may be fairly frequent and corresponds to crop cycles with preplant, preemergent, and possibly postemergent application (Stell et al., 1995). Pesticide application in the Apalachicola-ChattahoocheeFlint River Basin in Georgia may occur year-round, although rates are highest from March to September (Stell et al., 1995). Pesticides are commonly found in surface waters, and concentrations may exceed the USEPA’s health standards, as was found for atrazine concentrations in 27% of samples from the Mississippi, Ohio, and Missouri Rivers (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). Although atrazine is thought to be only slightly toxic, the long-term effects are unknown (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007). Additionally, the potential of pesticides reaching groundwater resources is a serious concern due to the difficulty of improving these resources once they have been contaminated. Physiographic Differences Although general trends have been documented for the conversion of forest to agriculture and urban land uses (Fig. 6), the influence of physiographic regions can be observed in hydrologic, sediment export, and aquatic biota responses. However, for water chemistry, the effect of land use is stronger than that of physiography in the Southeast. Topography and soil conditions are very influential regarding hydrology and sediment, and land-use history also plays a role. The number of studies conducted, and thus information available, is limited in the Coastal Plains, whereas more research has been done in the Appalachians and even more in the Piedmont. The effects of land conversion on aquatic resources are more pronounced in the Appalachians and Piedmont than in the Coastal Plain, although only a few studies have done direct comparisons. For example, greater sensitivity to land-use changes was reported for streamflow in the Appalachians than in the Piedmont or Coastal Plain (Stednick, 1996). Morgan and Cushman (2005) and Utz et al. (2009) found stronger responses to land-use change in fish and macroinvertebrates, respectively, in the Piedmont than in the Coastal Plain. Journal of Environmental Quality • Volume 40 • May–June 2011 Fig. 6. Conceptual model of the effects of land-use change on properties of receiving streams in (a) forest to agriculture and (b) forest to urban (including historical changes). Solid arrows are contemporary drivers; dashed lines are historical drivers; pluses, minuses, and zeroes refer to increases, decreases, and no effect, respectively, of each parameter (comma separators are sequential effects; slashes are either/or). Question marks are unknowns. DO, dissolved oxygen; DOC, dissolved organic carbon; TDS, total dissolved solids; TSS, total suspended solids. Nagy et al.: Water Resources and Land Use in a Humid Region 875 Conclusions The “urban stream syndrome” is characterized by changes in hydrology, stream chemistry, channel morphology, biotic richness, and community assemblages (Meyer et al., 2005; Walsh et al., 2005). In general, urban streams have more flashy hydrographs, increased nutrients and contaminants, incised channels, reduced species richness, and increased prevalence of tolerant organisms compared with forested streams. Even in humid areas, changes in hydrology and water quality may have significant negative effects on water supplies for growing populations, especially when rising demand coincides with periodic drought. Although removal of forest cover usually results in increased stream velocity and discharge, there may be problems in urban areas with “capturing” sufficient water for human use. Changes in hydrology, sediment export, and aquatic biota seem to vary in terms of magnitude among physiographic regions as follows: Appalachians > Piedmont > Coastal Plain. However, for water chemistry, the influence of land use dominates that of physiography in the Southeast. The threshold of disturbance, as indicated by parameters such as the % IS within a watershed, can be a useful guide to estimate when effects on aquatic resources may be observed. Previous studies have reported that stream degradation can occur at 10 to 20% impervious cover, yet changes have been observed at <5% IS in the Piedmont (Harned and Cuffney, 2005; Crim, 2007) and Southern Appalachians (Bolstad and Swank, 1997; Clinton and Vose, 2006). Thus, although imperviousness may be a useful parameter to indicate the extent of disturbance, the effects can be observed even at very low levels of impervious cover in the early stages of development. Furthermore, threshold variability seems to be dependent on the ecoregion and on the response variable, complicating the use of a single variable (e.g., % IS) as an estimate of disturbance. More recently, some researchers have used the termed “suburban stream syndrome” to identify similar effects at lower levels of IS cover and at the edges of urban areas (Cunningham et al., 2009). For example, streams in Duchess County, New York illustrated logarithmic increases in NO3− with increasing IS cover (Cunningham et al., 2009). Temporal Considerations Historical land use can have an equal or greater influence than current land use on the state of water resources. For example, watershed land-use data from the 1940s and 1950s were better predictors than contemporary land-use data in describing current stream biotic conditions (de la Crétaz and Barten, 2007; Maloney et al., 2008). Scott et al. (2002) reported that historical land use had a greater effect on erosion and stream sediment, whereas current land use influenced stream nutrients and temperature. Thus, it is important to be cognizant of historical practices, such as heavy legacy sediment accumulation within floodplains and stream channels, when evaluating current and predicting future conditions of water resources. Several studies, such as Schoonover and Lockaby (2006) and Crim (2007), have indicated that water quality may be as impaired under active and recent development compared with areas that have been developed for much longer periods of time. Consequently, the onset of water quality impairment 876 is relatively rapid once development begins, and, because there is no vegetation recovery period as there is in the case of forest harvesting, sediment, biogeochemical, and other types of terrestrial exports may remain high indefinitely. The ramifications of development processes, including vegetation clearing and construction, on water resources should not be underestimated. Long-term studies are needed to capture temporal dynamics. Every land-use transition has a temporal effect, and thus the response variables are likely to change over time. Future studies could quantify how biotic populations change over time after urban development and agriculture or conversely after afforestation. Spatial Considerations and Interactions In addition to the total amount of IS, forests, and agricultural land within the watershed, the spatial arrangement of these lands determines the water resource response. Arnold and Gibbons (1996) emphasized the need for assessment of the spatial arrangement of impervious surfaces, yet few studies seem to incorporate this component. A combination of modeling and field studies to examine different arrangements of forest, urban, and agricultural land within a watershed is necessary to inform land management decisions. Furthermore, within each watershed or subwatershed, there are often multiple land uses that interact to influence water resources. We need to understand the cumulative effects of multiple land uses on water resources at various temporal stages of land conversion. A common best management practice is maintaining or restoring the riparian zone. Riparian forests create a buffer between the terrestrial and aquatic systems and have many associated functions in this transitional zone. Functional riparian zones with high hydrologic connectivity between streams and uplands provide essential biogeochemical processing, plant uptake, and physical entrainment of sediments that ultimately lessen the effect of watershed disturbance (Naiman et al., 2005). The filtering capability is due to their position in the landscape and to geomorphic, hydrologic, and biotic processes within riparian areas (Naiman et al., 2005). Additionally, even in cases where riparian zones are left intact in urban areas, their functioning ability may be inhibited (Groffman et al., 2003; Walsh et al., 2005). For example, Walsh et al. (2005) explained that channel incision, increased IS cover, and piped drainage can lower the water table and thereby eliminate interactions between the riparia and shallow groundwater, thus limiting the capacity for filtration of pollutants. With regard to riparian restoration, the potential for nutrient and pollutant filtration and flood regulation afforded by riparian forests must be weighed against the short-term reduction in water yield that can occur after reforestation. The complex relationship between forests and water resources requires attention from scientists and the general public alike. Forests influence water quantity and quality, and the relationships vary based on land-use history, geology, climate, and topography. Therefore, caution must be used in land conversions that alter the location or extent of forests within the watershed to minimize the effects on water quantity and quality. Consideration of water and land-use interactions is required to sustain water resource demands of rapidly growing populations in humid and arid regions in coming decades. Journal of Environmental Quality • Volume 40 • May–June 2011 Acknowledgments Funding for this research was provided by the U.S. Forest Service Southern Region, Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory (Southern Research Station), Southern Group of State Foresters, and the Center for Forest Sustainability at Auburn University. References Ainslie, W.B. 2002. Forested wetlands. p. 479–499. In D.N. Wear and J.G. Greis (ed.) Southern forest resource assessment: Summary report. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-53. 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