Technische Universität München
Automation in Air Transport 2050
Student Scenario Study
Summer Term, 2013
© 2013, Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München
Technische Universität München
Study Group Members
TUM Students
External Participants
Christian Aigner
Florent Collet
Michael Ertl
Daniel Gierszewski
Omar Gomez Ortega
Marine Ilg
Peter Langenbacher
Max Ostendorp
Michael Shamiyeh
Eileen Wilhelm
Sebastian Zwenzner
Axel Becker
Airbus
Project Supervisor
Marcus Wiggert
German Federal Armed Forces
Niclas Randt
TUM Institute of Aircraft Design
Prof.
Prof. Dr. Klaus Bengler
TUM Institute of Ergonomics
Dr.
Dr. Werner Huber
BMW
Dr.
Dr. Annika Vergin
German Federal Armed Forces
Sebastian Wolf
Bauhaus Luftfahrt
© 2013, Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München
Technische Universität München
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© 2013, Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München
Technische Universität München
Final Documentation
Team 1
© 2013, Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München
“An Automated Revolution”
Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
Praktikum Luftverkehrsszenarien SS 2013 Gruppe 1 (Gierszewski, Gomez, Langenbacher, Shamiyeh)
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
Part 1
Scenario Writing
A Look into the future…
Quintessence or: “The final five”
Collage
Timeline
Page 2
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
A look into the future
Economy & Business
After the reformation of capitalism in the western
world, a more stable and fair economic system
was established. The labour relations are governmentally regulated. Every employee has the
right to profit sharing and the salaries of men and
women are equal. Furthermore there are minimum wages and the managerial salaries are
regularised. As a result there is a big middle class
all over the world.
Thanks to new market regulations governmentowned companies got independent stock companies. As a consequence, financially sound big
stock corporations started to buy shares of newly
independent companies of various business
upswing. Thus travel connections
improved and the transport within and between cities is managed by few big stock corporations.
One reason for the economic
upswing concerning transport
corporations is automation. With
automation, personnel costs are
reduced and a more comfortable, more reliable and faster
travelling is realized.
Another reason can be seen in
the investment willingness. Due
to great support for new technologies and automated systems from media
and society and the positive image of the aviation industry, people are increasing their investments in the automated-air-transport sector.
These investments enable the companies to
extend their offers in the automated-railtransport and airport sector.
Politics, Legislation & Regulation
sectors, like “Deutsche Bahn”, and are on the
Page 3
The majority of politicians support “Automated
Air Transport Systems“ (AATS) and the legislation
set no hurdles for automation, because of the
big pressure through the high air traffic volume.
Furthermore the enormous 90 per cent of crashes, which were caused by pilot error, could not
be reduced. This led to a path breaking ruling in
favour of automated systems. For safety reasons
politicians and legislation dictate in 2030 that all
aviation systems have to be automated within
ten years.
There are big regional organisations of states, like
Europe + USA and there are border controls between these organisations. This border controls
were a big problem until 2023. Then an international agreement between all organisations,
which regulates the border controls, was signed.
With this agreement the “Single Global Sky” was
implemented. The air surveillance for the trade
areas is carried out by their military forces. But
there are no limitations for the civil air transport
on the airways.
In 2021 China became increasing problems on
the international market. Due to external and
internal pressure China had to adopt international western standards and corporate organi-
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
sations. Only global players can exist on the free
market.
All National Airlines are part of international stock
corporations in 2023. Thus the governments had
stopped step by step all subsidies, preferential
rights and privileges of National Airlines. So there
are no Flag carriers anymore. Nevertheless the
prices are low as a result of fierce competition
between the big transport operators and due to
the fact that Monopoly positions and price fixings are internationally forbidden.
Society & Demographics
In 2050 the majority of people are living in cities.
While the urban public transport is handled with
automated on-ground transport systems, AATSs
cover the transport needs between the cities.
Since after big riots the world financial system
has got much fairer, a big middle class has been
shaped and a lot of people can afford inter-cityflights and attend those.
Because of the much bigger number and the
growing age of air-travelers, the advantages in
time and comfort resulting from automation are
receiving much more attention than the disadvantages like impersonal processing during flight.
In combination with a high grade of automation
in everyday life, this leads to general openness to
innovation.
Due to the extremely high software reliability and
security, society and media have a high level of
trust in automated technology.
Due to the environmental efforts of the aviationindustry (e.g. bio fuels s. “Ecology and Energy”),
people think in very positive way about flying.
They have even a highly supportive position to
the innovation ambitions of companies, because
nearly everybody considers the automation as a
positive way to cope with the increasing demand for food, transport and so on.
Ecology & Energy
With a strongly increasing worldwide population
and developing nations like China and India,
that are further seeking for economic growth
and prosperity, two major problems arose until
2030: At first to meet the increasing demand of
energy and secondly to produce enough food
for the increasing number of people.
The energy demand pressure stimulated the
research in alternative sources and more efficiency in energy use. Especially new developed
bio fuels, like algae fuel with algae produced in
photo bioreactors, play a significant role in 2050.
As they are not able to replace fossil fuels completely, electricity mainly from solar or wind parks
Page 4
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
is needed as further energy supply. The use of a
variety of different energy sources is a major
strategy in 2050, which also applies to the
transport systems. Ships and aircraft are now
hybrid powered, using electricity from solar cells
and batteries as well as fossil or bio fuel. The hybrid strategy as well as the extended mass production of bio fuel from algae and other biomass
resources help to keep the
costs for fuels at an acceptable level. In 2019 Emission Trading Schemes (ETS)
were introduced worldwide.
Certificates have to be purchased to be allowed to set
free exhaust gases like CO2.
This made bio fuels become
more attractive, as they are
considered as zero-emission
fuels. Another important political decision, that stimulated
the replacement of fossil fuels
by bio fuels, was the introduction of a blend with more
than 30% bio fuel as an alternative to conventional kerosene at most airports of Europe and the USA in
2020.
In order to increase energy efficiency of many
systems and processes, automation was very
helpful and thus found its way in almost every
sector of industry. For example at airports automation reduced the time needed for start-up
procedures and thus helped to save fuel and
avoid emissions. Due to automation air travel
Page 5
operators are able to compensate for the increased fuel costs, by reducing staff. Thanks to
the automated high-speed rail transport services
in the cities and the clever arrangement of flight
routes, air traffic in the airspace over cities is
avoided. In this way noise emissions by aircraft
are no longer a problem, despite the high volume of traffic.
Although a lot of the cultivated land in 2050 is
used to plant the resources that are needed for
biological fuels, a highly efficient and completely
automated agriculture is still able to meet the
demand of food for people all over the world.
This fact contributed to the positive attitude of
the people towards automation. But nevertheless this evolution left its traces in nature. In 2050
giant wind or solar parks are drawing the land-
scape and except great megacities almost all
remaining area is needed as cultivable land.
Also in 2050 the climate change and its disastrous consequences are still a problem. Although
huge efforts were made to slow down global
warming, the proclaimed goal to keep it under
the 2-degree Celsius limit could not be hold. In
middle Europe long-lasting heat waves in the
summertime are no more extraordinary. Moreover annual rainfall decreased about 50% compared to 2010 on the Mediterranean, but strongly increased in Northern Europe. To make agriculture furthermore possible, despite the hot climate, big amounts of water are necessary for
watering the farming land. Only by a very efficient use and recycling of water, it can be ensured that the global water resources are not
exploited. Because of continuing desertification
in North Africa and the Middle East, in 2050 there
are many climate refugees moving to the big
cities that are located in temperate climate
zones.
The good thing is, desert areas are very suitable
for algae farming, as the sun and heat accelerate the growth of algae and enough solar power is available for the energy-intensive process.
Moreover the genetically modified algae that
was already in 2011 found as most promising for
bio fuel production, is grown in a salt water environment. This makes it possible to use actually
barren land for farming and saves precious drinking water. Thus, many of the former oil-producing
countries, like Saudi-Arabia are now important
providers for bio fuel. They soon realized that if
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
they want to remain economically and politically
important they had to invest in alternative energy resources.
In northern countries like Canada or especially
Russia, the now temperate climate as well as the
large unsettled land areas, makes them become
the world's most important food producers.
Air traffic market
All rail transport services around the airport are
completely automated, because the government-owned rail companies, like “Deutsche
Bahn” became independent and efficient companies in 2017. For better competitiveness and
cost-effectiveness airlines, railways and airports
merged to big transport operators like Star Alliance, SkyTeam, Oneworld Alliance and Xinxing.
They offer complete packages with rail-transport
to and from the aircraft. That is why there is a
good transfer of know-how between automated
trains and automated aircraft.
Due to a big middle class and a high number of
people who can afford to travel by plane, the air
traffic volume rises. Furthermore all people see
the air travel as the indisputable most technically
advanced means of transportation. That is why
air transport is the biggest mass transportation
sector. For being able to handle this huge
amount of passengers the Air Transport systems
have to be automated. Otherwise the amount
of passengers could not be handled and the
really big demand could not be satisfied.
Page 6
The number of seats is high, the provided services for most passengers are limited and the
passengers have to be checked in on public
transport stations with connection to the airport.
Only some exclusive aircraft operators provide
personal services for upper class passengers. Due
to the fact that the software security and reliability is nearly 100 % and the positive Media hypes
towards technological innovation, the acceptance of automated technology and the
Investment-willingness in the aviation sector is
very high and all transport operators automated
nearly all services.
On the one hand there is an increasing number
of business trips, because of the worldwide operating corporations. On the other hand there is
an ascending number of vacation trips, because
most people want to travel during holidays. Furthermore more children and senior citizens travel
based on the urbanisation, the globalisation and
the huge geographic distances to relatives.
There are many group and individual travels.
Thus the overall private air traffic rises and is as
easy as driving by train or metro.
Intercontinental there are big hubs and big to
medium-sized planes. But within the organisations there are point to point connections and
many flights with a high frequency. The point to
point connections are operated by small to medium-sized aircraft. There is a distinct tendency
towards air travel, instead of rail- and bus travels,
for travels over one hour, due to time saving
reasons and more comfortable journeys.
Passenger behavior
All passengers have to buy their tickets via internet and are looking for the cheapest tickets. The
new way of travelling by plane starts at public
transport stations with connection to the airport.
There, the passengers perform the baggage
drop-off and the check-in with their electronic
passport (e-pass) or electronic ID (e-ID). Thus
there are no queue times for the passengers. If
there are some problems the police intervenes
immediately. Automated railways enable arriving at the airport 5 to 15 minutes before the flight
time departure. The airports in 2050 are only interchange-facilities and transport hubs. After the
arrival the passengers are transported to their
gate directly, where they enter the plane.
Nearly all passengers are flying with fully automated services, like automated catering and onboard services. The exceptions are some upper
class passengers, who insist on personal airline
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
services. They want to have the traditional personal services, like catering by flight attendants.
Both sorts of passengers want to have the most
comfort possible. Furthermore they want to have
the possibility to work, relax and sleep during
flight. Therefore the passengers have access to a
fast Internet connection during the whole journey. As a result all passengers can use their
whole travel time very purposeful and the period
of time during the trip is not experienced as
dead time or wasted time.
The passengers have confidence in technology.
That is why they have no issues with innovations
like Blended Wing Bodies and unpiloted aerial
vehicles.
Infrastructure
In 2050, automation is necessary to cope with
the huge amounts of passengers at airports.
Otherwise queue times would be unacceptable
Page 7
and boarding procedures would last several
hours. When in former times hundreds of people
worked at airports, nowadays there are only few
employees responsible for mainly control tasks or
to interfere in cases of emergency. To shorten
the ways between points inside the huge airports, an automated inside railway system is established. This helps to realize a stress-free and
fast boarding procedure, despite the large and
crowded airports. In 2050 check-in, luggage
registration and security control take already
place at one of the many public transport stations with connection to the airport. On the one
hand this helps to avoid congestions and
crowded trains. On the other hand, passengers
now spend much more time at the public
transport stations than at the airports. Thus shopping facilities and restaurants, which were typically situated at airports, are now located in and
among important public transport stations.
Moreover the journey to and from airports has
changed a lot. In 2050 individual
traffic among airports, for example by cars, is prohibited and
replaced completely by an automated rail transport system,
that is connected to the public
transport network. Parking areas
as well as many roads leading to
airports are dispensable. The
passenger benefits thereby as he
saves time and does not have to
worry about finding a parking lot
or arriving at the airport on time
when there is a lot of traffic on streets. To handle
the crowds of people who leave and arrive at
the airports every day, huge automated highspeed shuttle trains drive in minute intervals and
connect airports with the most important public
transport stations of the cities.
Until 2050 the individual traffic by cars loses significance or is even prohibited in certain areas like
downtown or among airports. So people make
use of a good public transport network. As disturbances in the schedule would be disastrous, a
totally safe and reliable controlling of these
transport systems is necessary. For people in 2050
it would be unthinkable if humans with their long
reaction time control these trains.
In the globalized world of 2050, with many big
international companies existing, a means of
transport that helps to link places that are far
away from each other plays a very important
role. Therefore the expansion of the global infrastructure network, based on aviation continues.
The most flown routes connect European metropolis with megacities in China, India, America
and the Middle East. Except some private or
company-owned airports, nearly no smaller regional airports exist anymore.
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
Technology Options
All Airplanes fly totally automated an energy
saving optimized flight path without any flight
attendants in a “Single Global Sky”. The passengers enjoy a big media system for entertainment
and ordering purposes and a worldwide communication system with holographic functions
(Skype 3D). The serving of food
and drinks is mostly fully automated, only some upper class passengers receive personal services.
Passengers with special abilities
(doctors, safety staff ...) are registered at the airlines and fly for
special prices. In case of emergency they handle difficult situations on board.
ed. Sensors read out the passenger information,
while the passengers board a train.
system transfers get highly comfortable and the
travellers are always in charge of their luggage.
The luggage can be dropped-off at fully automatic conveyor belts (which carry the bags to
special boxes) in the railway stations. The baggage boxes move automatically in the right
plane and assemble to the LTU (luggage
transport unit).
For safety and duty reasons luggage and people
are multiple rayed, declarable products are
automatically scanned and identified and customs pay with electronic banking.
There is no centralized air traffic
management. Instead, planes are
coordinating their flight paths only
with nearby planes, even while
departing and arriving at airports.
Conventional planes are established as standard because of best
efficiency and the easy available
big amount of space at airports; VSTOL aircraft
are used only for special purposes. The new
generation of jet engines provides a comfortable level of noise; residents of airports and air
routes are not affected anymore.
Since the electronic passport is introduced, the
check-in on railway stations is also fully automat-
Page 8
Another Option could be the creation of
transport units composed by a seat and a luggage-rack behind or beneath the seat. People
get on their train, occupy one of those transport
units and travel to the airport. There, the units
with the passengers leave the train automatically
and hover to the appropriate airplanes to reassemble and form the flight deck. With such a
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
Quintessence or: “The final five”
1.
Automation is necessary to cope with the most important challenges of the 21st century, like population growth.
2.
Automation, especially in aviation, is highly supported by politics, media and society.
3.
In 2050 passengers benefit from automation, as it makes travelling by aircraft simpler, faster and more comfortable.
4.
A fairer economic system, which is dominated by big stock companies, gives rise to a big global middle class that has the
money and the will to travel by aircraft.
5.
Airplanes, without any flight attendants, fly fully automated coordinating their energy saving optimized flight paths almost
only in communication with nearby planes.
Page 9
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
Page 10
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
Timeline
Page 11
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
Part 2
Concepts of Operations
High-level requirements
A business journey
The Single Transport Unit (STU)
Page 12
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
High-level requirements
In-Flight Automation:
1.
Planes taxi, take-off, fly and land completely automated.
2.
Probability of collision has to be reduced to 10^-12 per flight hour.
3.
Planes deviate off their optimized flight paths with a probability threshold of 10^-9 per flight hour.
4.
Traveling-process has to be so simple that a six year old child, or handicapped, or all old persons can attend flights.
5.
Medical onboard equipment is sufficient to handle health issues like heart attacks and simple injuries.
6.
Flights arrive within 1 minute of the planned arrival time regardless of weather conditions.
7.
During flight, every passenger has a fully equipped work-, entertainment- and rest- or sleep-environment.
8.
A passenger can communicate audio-visually with every person worldwide.
9.
Passengers have the possibility to receive drinks and food during flight anytime.
10. Luggage has to be accessible for passengers at all time.
On-Ground Automation:
1.
The transfer from train to plane or plane to plane is done within 15 minutes.
2.
Passengers are distributed to the right aircraft automatically.
3.
It has to be possible to identify people automated and without contact by their e-passport.
4.
All passengers and their luggage have to be scanned (for safety reasons) without contact and fully automated.
5.
Check-In is completed before rail-transfer.
6.
The maximum time for railway-airport-transfer does not exceed 20 minutes in metropolitan areas.
7.
After entering the railway-transport-system luggage “follows” its passenger automated.
8.
The maximum distance covered by foot at airports is 100m.
9.
Aircraft handling is done within 15 minutes after passenger drop-off.
10. The time for plane maintenance has to be reduced by 75%.
Page 13
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
A business journey
03.07.2050, 13:00
13:30
•Email-check: He gets an invitation from the office in China to a meeting: 04.07. 13:00 (local time) in Shanghai.
13:35
•He buys an e-travel-ticket for 20:00 from Munich to Shanghai. Because of his passed „Flight Safety Instructor -training he gets a 15% discount.
19:55
•Arrival at nearest train station with connection to the airport. He walks with his baggage and his e-passport in his pocket through the security and check-in gate.
19:58
•Mr. Business takes a seat of a single-traveller transport unit in the train and stores his luggage beneath the seat. Meanwhile he is welcomed personally by the STU.
20:00
•The train leaves towards the airport, he checks his flight data and orders dinner and drinks for the flight on the integrated touch screen. He can see on the timebar, that he
will need 13 minutes to the airport.
20:13
•The stay o your seat sig illu i ates a d he hears frie dly oi e a
20:15
•While watching the „Tagess hau he recognizes that his STU leaves the train and hovers to the plane.
20:22
•While the STU is brought to a halt, he meets his new seat-neighbour whose transport unit assambles beside his own.
20:25
•During take-off the „stay on your seat sign turns off and he gets a message that his meal in the catering box on the STU is ready.
21:00
•After Mr. Business finished his dinner and had a delightful conversation with his seat neighbour, he switches his STU to „work-mode . Slowly the dividers around his unit rise
and he connects online to his company cloud for finishing his presentation.
23:00
•Perfe tly satisfied ith his ork he s it hes his “TU to sleep- ode . U der the starry sky he falls asleep.
04.07.2050, 12:00
(local time, Shanghai)
Page 14
•Mr. Business, 35, starts working in his office in Munich after lunch.
ou es the arri al at the airport.
•Mr. Business is waken up by a friendly voice and relaxing music. A friendly voice tells him, that he will arrive in 30 minutes at his final destination.
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
The Single Transport Unit (STU)
Needs
See “High-level requirements” and Flightpath
2050.
Approach
Introduction
The “Single Transport Unit” (STU) plays a decisive
role in the person transportation chain in 2050.
Basically it consists of:
-
one floor plate,
sidewalls,
a highly adjustable seat,
a luggage rack,
a big touch screen,
a desk,
and a catering box.
The main idea is that the traveler moves into one
STU at the beginning of the journey and stays
there until arrival. The STU is somehow train-seat,
plane-seat, board service, entertainment system,
office, bedroom and transfer-taxi at once.
Technical aspects
Trains and planes do not have a static interior
with seats or cabins anymore, it is composed of
STUs. Therefore standardized physical, electrical
and software interfaces are necessary. For identification and navigation purposes the STU con-
Page 15
Cartoon by Daniel Gierszewski
tains an e-passport scanner and a link to a central travel database. This makes it possible to
provide personalized services (like linking to an
office- or personal-cloud, pre-stored STU-settings,
and so on) and the automated interchange
from the train to the booked plane.
For interchange, the STUs have their own weak
propulsion-, navigation- and communication
systems. There is no centralized control center at
the airports which pilots the units, each STU proceeds autonomously to its destination.
Economical aspects
Companies offer STUs with special functions. For
instance a “fitness-STU” by a sports-supplier, a
“gaming-STU” or a “gourmet-STU”,… is imaginable too.
“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050
The traveler can pre-order such special STUs for
extra charge, or the companies provide them for
advertising purposes for free.
The catering concept works in a way that companies pay to get their products on the menu
which is provided for each STU on the touch
screen. As a result, the passenger has a wide
range of selections concerning food and drinks.
Challenges
There exist a lot of challenges, realizing the STU
system:
-
Benefits
-
Due to travelling in STUs, the passenger has a lot
of benefits:
-
-
-
-
She/he can stay at his seat during the complete journey. Disruptions through interchanges are completely eliminated.
She/he can use the travel time effectively
for any kind of activity. (Fully equipped
work-, entertainment- and rest- or sleepenvironment)
The luggage is accessible at all time.
She/he can enjoy individual catering with a
wide range of brand-offers.
The travel process is much simpler, more
comfortable and faster than nowadays.
The Benefits for companies are:
-
Totally new ways for advertising are provided.
They can offer their products during the
whole journey (not only at airports/train stations)
Page 16
-
The interior of future trains and planes have
to provide systems for the STU integration.
Systems for assembly and decomposition in
trains and planes of the STUs have to be developed.
The interfaces between the STU and
trains/planes will be very complex and difficult to realize.
The intermodal changes (sleep, work, entertainment, and so on) have to be passengerfriendly and comfortable.
The system for navigation, tracks, distribution
and coordination of STUs will be a big challenge.
Technische Universität München
Final Documentation
Team 2
© 2013, Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München
Error 404 : Automation not found
Praktikum Luftverkerhsszenarien 2013
Christian AIGNER – Florent COLLET – Marine ILG – Sebastian ZWENZNER
Error 404 : Automation not found
Table of contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Scenario description
1.1. The key event
1.2. Macroscopic level
1.2.1. Economy and business
1.2.2. Society and demographics
1.2.3. Ecology and energy
1.2.4. Politics, legislation and regulation
1.3. Air transport level
1.3.1. Infrastructure
1.3.2. Air traffic market
1.3.3. Passenger behavior
1.3.4. Technology options
Key statements
Timeline of events
Collage
High-level requirements
Concepts of operations
NABC-Analysis
7.1.
In flight : Air Traffic Management System (ATMS
7.1.1.
Customer needs
7.1.2.
Approach
7.1.3.
Customer benefits
7.1.4.
Challenges
7.2.
On-ground : Push-pull cars (PPCs)
7.2.1.
Customer needs
7.2.2.
Approach
7.2.3.
Customer benefits
7.2.4.
Challenges
Praktikum Luftverkehrsszenarien 2013 – Group 2
1
Error 404 : Automation not found
1. Scenario description
1.1.
The key event
The governments were always supporting the investments in AATS and reiterating
the need for new investments and the implementation of fully automated systems on
ground as well as in the air. Even when frequent attacks on the automated systems
showed that the Software security was nearly non-existing, the governments all over the
world still encouraged further development and implementation, especially of the AATS.
The event of New Year’s Eve 2035 should change that forever. The indefinite trust in
new technology should lose any foundation overnight and the population remains shellshocked.
A loosely organized group of cyber terrorists, consisting of members of small
ecological cells around the world, remotely hijacked an automated aircraft, causing it to
crash. As a consequence of this event, regulation and legislation have increased
dramatically, investments in the AATS have been frozen.
1.2. Macroscopic level
1.2.1.
Economy and business
The economy crisis is still ongoing after 2015 but the investments in the aviation
sector and especially the automation of this sector are becoming more and more
important. In 2035 the big aircraft catastrophe leads to a sudden stop of investments in
the aviation sector.
Economic cooperation between Europe and Asia is getting stronger. Further
growth of South American countries allows them to develop their economic
relationships with North American countries.
China is rising to become an even more important part in the world economy. Its
influence leads it to become, with most South-East Asian countries, a major weight in the
global economic balance.
Wage labour diminishes over time due to the fact that most of the work in
factories is automated, which means that many people are without a job or have a job
which gives them not as much as they would’ve earned. There are still some people who
earn big money, for example engineers since they are needed to overlook the work done
in the automated factories.
1.2.2.
Society and demographics
Population of industrialized countries becomes older compared to a young
population in the third world countries. The number of people living on earth increases
as well, because of an improved medical assistance and high birth rate in large parts of
South America, Asia and Africa.
While the educational prospects in the third world have never improved, in first
world countries it becomes increasingly difficult to get access to good education. It is
necessary to have the right financial background in order to get into the right schools.
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Automation contributed in large parts to the risen social gap. The companies replace
human workers with robots. The unemployment rate increases. Urbanization increases
and leads to more property inside the cities.
1.2.3.
Ecology and energy
New environmental standards set by the 2nd Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 2024,
represent an enormous challenge for the air travel industry : the objectives set by this
new protocol are very challenging for what is still now the most polluting means of
transportation on the planet.
Environmental awareness becomes a more and more important matter in people’s
minds, thus causing more people to reconsider their choices about their preferred
means of transportation. Even though most people are poor they still care about the
environment because it serves as a purpose to differentiate themselves from the Upper
Class.
The unfortunate event of a nuclear plant being destroyed by an earthquake has
furthermore raised many questions about safety of nuclear energy, particularly in
countries heavily relying on this energy source, e.g. France. Fusion, which has recently
been finalized, then seems a lot less useful. As a consequence, governments are investing
more and more in renewable energy technologies. Water, wind and solar energy are the
main resources.
1.2.4.
Politics, legislation and regulation
The picture of the world in 2050 is characterized by widespread poverty,
especially in the industrialized countries, which have never been able to fully recover
from the economic crisis. Political stability is not as high as in the beginning of the 21st
century. The high numbers of unemployed people are one reason, why the government
cuts back the investments in automation, as there is only work for some groups as
engineers and other parts of the population would become lifelong unemployed
preparing the ground for criminality and revolutionary tendencies. This poverty creates
a new will for intercontinental migration, which leads to stricter immigration
requirements, e.g. visa free tourism no more exists.
Democracy is still dominant in Europe, although the people themselves have no
real influence and Europe is mainly governed by a small group of politicians – a
European Government - and a larger group of less well-off politicians totally depending
on them. Nevertheless the rule of law is still intact. Russia, China and the USA haven't
undergone any changes in their political life and the principal of being governed by some
rich industrials has become the norm. This creates together with the high society of the
Near East a while small very well-funded class, who determines the demand on
commercial air traffic.
China has risen to the dominant power in the world, allowing them to absorb
Taiwan and North Korea. This creates tensions with India, Indonesia and Russia. Japan
plays no more role after a second maximum credible accident worse than Fukushima
during the catastrophe. Neglecting any further use of Nuclear Technology the society
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pursues alternative ways and gets thrown back 100 years. In the rest of the world the
new fusion reactors create new possibilities. The fastest growing regions are South
America and South East Asia, while Africa remains in his desolate state. The USA plays
still an important role, but are only a shivering dwarf compared to the old times of glory.
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1.3. Air transport level
1.3.1.
Infrastructure
There are many small airports which are very well connected with each other.
There are almost exclusively direct flights offered. In and very close to smaller cities new
airports are being constructed. These new airports have been constructed in order to
optimize access to different modes of transportation (automated rail transport systems,
car parks, etc.). the optimization includes allowing more smaller airplanes traffic.
In order to cope with the ever increasing number of passengers, connections
between cities and airports are improved : more and more rail transport systems are
being automated for decreased transfer time, also between terminals for big airports.
Freight operations are also being automated when possible.
1.3.2.
Air traffic market
The market focuses on smaller long-range planes flying more frequently,
resulting in increasing number of air traffic.
Due to the high expectations from rich customers concerning comfort airlines
have to adapt their range of services. 70 percent of passengers flying for business
purposes, the rest are mostly tourism related.
Some parts of the world have risen and in the aviation sector, this new world order can
be seen in the leading Aircraft Manufacturers. Airbus is the largest aircraft
manufacturer, hold by 49% of the Chinese government.
The main competitors in North America are Embraer, Bombardier and
Gulfstream, which are now melted into one company and Boeing. In Europe and Asia
Airbus is the market leader who has bought COMAC.
1.3.3.
Passenger behavior
The current social gap causes that only rich people are able to fly. Business class
from
’s is now standard for all airlines in terms of comfort, space and services.
Passengers don’t trust the automation in the air industry and prefer to fly on the old ,
conservative way. They prefer human service instead of robots. There has to be always a
backup in the cockpit for more safety. Flying becomes more a luxury symbol.
Environmental awareness tends to encourage people to use other means of
transportation rather than airplanes. Most passengers are between 35 and 70 years old.
Due to reoccurring software-related security threats, the media are drawing a bad image
about air transportation, thus has the society a mainly negative opinion for further
automation in air transport and services.
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1.3.4.
Technology options
Until 2035 the investment-willingness in AATS was unbroken and thus
concerning the available and fully developed, everything can be made happen. It is just
restricted to such a high extent, that most of the technology is neither produced nor
implemented. Airports are almost completely automated, with strong focus on onground services and procedures such as check-in, luggage handling, etc. On the other
hand, aircraft are also being converted to partial automation : optimized flight paths and
weight saving onboard systems allow manufacturers to produce lighter machines.
Due to the uncertainty of fossil fuel availability for the next decades, new fuel
types have emerged as serious alternatives, such as mixes between Jet-A1 and algal or
jatropha-based biofuels, resulting in better energy management without significant
changes in engine design. Also, further progresses made by aircraft engine
manufacturers enable between 30 and 40 % of energy savings.
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2. Key statements





Society becomes more skeptic towards technology, because of
increased software security threats
No investments in automation technology have been made in the last
decades due to legislation restrictions
Environmental awareness becomes an important topic among the
society
The proportion of people who can afford travelling by plane
decreases, because of a bigger social gap
Due to a huge catastrophe concerning automated aircraft, the
technology available is not being used : instead, older technology is
still currently active
3. Timeline of events
2024 : 2nd Kyoto
Protocol
2031 : Nuclear fusion
becomes operational
2027 : Chinese state
uys 9% of Air us’
stakes
2030 : Airbus
acquires COMAC
2037 : Earthquake in
Japan
2032 : Merging of
Bombardier, Embraer and
Gulfstream
2045 : Annexation of
Taiwan and North Korea
by China
0 9 : Air us’ arket
domination at the
Paris Air Show
2035 : aircraft
hijacked
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4. Collage
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5. High-Level Requirements
5.1. In-flight automation

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5.2.
Maximization of space per passenger
Crew to passenger ratio first class: 1:6; business 1:9
Control of the aircraft lies in the hands of the pilot
The aircraft follows the optimized air path with minimal
pilot input
Minimized noise disturbance, e.g. Take-off and Landing
Only direct flights with minimal travel time
Air traffic management system to handle the increased
number of airplanes in the sky
On-ground automation









Emission-free taxiing
Time needed for Check-In and Security Controls is
minimized
Security Controls detect any possible threats
Aircraft Maintenance procedures are automated
Time spent on the airport is minimal for passenger and
aircraft
Fast connections between airport and final destination
Luggage handling is fully automated
Passengers are supported individually on their way to the
aircraft
Individual catering is available to order before arrival at
the airport
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6. CONOPs (Concepts of Operations)
























40 year old businessman traveling with his rich father in law from
Starnberg to Southampton
They leave the house, after having searched for the fastest way to the
airport on their smartphone
Tickets sent directly per e-mail, consulted on mobile device
They get to the airport by partially automated train
Individual selection of in-flight catering services during the train ride
They are being guided in the airport with help of a smartphone app
(in-house navigation)
RFID luggage badge
Luggage get sorted by robots
They proceed to automated security checks (body scans with human
oversight), and border control procedures (biometric passports,
automated scanning units)
They proceed to the boarding gate with moving walkways, still guided
by in-house navigation
The father in law proceeds directly to the first class lounge with a
moving walkway, while the businessman gets to a normal waiting
area. Both are equipped with workspaces
As they look out of the window on the air field they watch numerous
automated towing cars maneuvering the airplanes
The father in law boards first. He is being guided to his travel area
by aircraft personnel
The businessman then boards and is being guided to his seat as well
An emission-free taxiing system is realized through automated
electronic push-pull cars
The pilot greets the passengers before the aircraft leaves the parking
spot
The plane takes off
Previously ordered onboard catering is being delivered by cabin
crew, further services available (entertainment, wellness, etc.)
While working (thanks to the onboard internet connection), the
businessman counts more than 20 aircraft flying around
The plane lands after an 1-hour flight at Southampton
Before getting to the train to town center, they get their luggage back
The completely relaxed father-in-law gets to his hotel for his golf
tournament
The businessman joins his colleagues for a well prepared meeting
They reach their respective destinations within 15 minutes after
landing
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7. NABC – Analysis
7.1. In flight : Air Traffic Management System (ATMS)
7.1.1.
Customer needs
Targeted customers are airlines, which try to manage a huge amount of aircraft at
the same time and airspace. The system has to insure collision-free air traffic. One of the
main goals for airlines is shortest possible travel times, achieved through flight path
optimization. The system must not replace the pilots, but it should only assist them in
various tasks. Since the software security is not as high as it should be, the pilot is still
responsible for the safe control of the aircraft and can take full control at any time.
Furthermore, noise reduction is one of the secondary goals that must be achieved
through the system.
7.1.2.
Approach
Due to the events of 2035, regulations and restrictions have taken further
development of the Air Traffic Management System (ATMS) to a halt. In 2050, a new
version of ATMS is being used successfully because it has been developed in such a way
that regulations are not harmed.
ATMS lies on new communication procedures, mainly between flying airplanes,
and also between airplanes and air traffic control (ATC). The main purpose of
communication between flying aircraft is collision avoidance. On the other hand, ATCairplane communication ensures optimal flight paths for all aircraft. Global routing is
made by ATC prior to departure for all aircraft ; flight data are then communicated to
each of them. The pilot still has full control of the airplane ; ATMS is just assisting him in
his tasks and every action from the system has to be confirmed by the pilot. In case of
emergency, ATMS can be easily disabled so that the pilot can ensure the aircraft safety at
all times. Therefore, additional training has to be provided to ensure that pilots have the
necessary abilities to manage aircraft in a crowded airspace.
7.1.3.
Customer benefits
Through ATMS, airspace is used more efficiently and leads to more connections at
the same time. Energy saving opportunities are made possible thanks to flight path
optimization. Constant communication between aircraft and ATC enables improved
safety.
7.1.4.
Challenges
Two of the most important challenges are pilot training, particularly in emergency cases
(since they are not used to fly manually anymore), and also to insure the same level of
software security. Flexible and efficient routing algorithms also have to be developed
and constantly improved.
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7.2. On ground : push-pull car (PPC)
7.2.1.
Customer needs
Customers are airport operators. As required in the Flight Path
5 document,
taxiing procedures must be emission-free. Automation for on-ground procedures must
insure the same level of reliability and flexibility as before, and also marketable (cheap
and adaptable to all sorts of airports). It also has to optimize the time spent by aircraft
on the ground, leading to overall shorter travel times.
7.2.2.
Approach
Push-pull cars (PPCs) are bound to replace and enhance the function of current
push-back cars : they are electrically powered and automated, and completely
maneuver the aircraft on the airport (from gate to runway) : the vehicles’ positions are
controlled by GPS, as well as on-ground and on-car mounted sensors. The whole PPC
infrastructure is monitored by the air traffic controllers, who can take over control from
one of the PPC if a problem arises. There is always an over-capacity of vehicles to allow
reload and replacement in case of maintenance. Charging and maintenance stations are
constructed near terminals to ensure 24-hour functionality.
7.2.3.
Customer benefits
The main benefit for airport operators is the complete automation of on-ground
taxiing procedures, allowing operators to focus on more critical tasks. Furthermore,
significant cuts in personnel costs can be expected, leading to better economic efficiency.
The PPC system also allows airports to draw an environmentally-respectful picture of
air transportation.
7.2.4.
Challenges
The PPC system can lead to significant changes in airport infrastructure : it must
be developed in order to minimize its impact on the overall airport ground traffic
organization, and thus to be implemented on any airport in the world. Safety aspects
must also be taken into consideration, e.g. collision avoidance between airplanes. On the
other hand, the system has to be provided with the highest level of software security.
Praktikum Luftverkehrsszenarien 2013 – Group 2
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Technische Universität München
Final Documentation
Team 3
© 2013, Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München
Luftverkehrsszenarien: Szenario 3
Stepbystep; 19.07.2013
0
INHALT
Key factor essays of the Macro layer ..................................................................... 1
Economy & Business ..................................................................................... 2
Politics, Legislation & Regulation ................................................................... 3
Society & Demographics ............................................................................... 5
Ecology & Energy .......................................................................................... 6
Key factor essays of the Air Transport layer ........................................................... 8
Air Traffic Market ............................................................................................ 9
Passenger Behavior ..................................................................................... 10
Infrastructure ................................................................................................ 12
Technology Options ..................................................................................... 13
Key Findings......................................................................................................... 14
Timeline ................................................................................................................ 15
Scenario Vision ..................................................................................................... 16
From the scenario to a product development process ........................................ 17
High Level Requirements (HLRs) ......................................................................... 18
Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) ..................................................................... 19
Product Ideas ....................................................................................................... 23
NABC analyses .................................................................................................... 28
KEY FACTOR ESSAYS OF
THE MACRO LAYER
Air Transport layer
Air traffic market
Passenger Behavior
Infrastructure
Technology options
Macro layer
Economy & Business
Politics, Legislation & Regulation
Society & Demographics
Ecology & Energy
1
ECONOMY &
BUSINESS
A robust economic development has
performance of the former leader. Eu-
led to a large middle class* with a large
rope looses importance, only France
demand for air transportation connect-
and Germany maintain global weight.
ing the main economic centers of the
developed world.
*prognosis of HSBC Holdings: in 2050 more
l-
These countries are thus the centers of
innovation in the mobility sector. Air-
most 3 billion people will have an earning be-
craft manufacturers and operators are
tween $3,000 and $15,000 a year
accumulated in the US, France & Germany and China & India.
ewly industrialized countries
tional
economies. China replaces the US as
In countries such as China and India,
the gap in distribution of wealth between the urban centers and rural are-
India has caught up with the economic
as widens.
2
POLITICS, LEGISLATION
& REGULATION
Due to the inability to agree on a
flight routes. After several years of dis-
standardized immigration and duty pol-
cussions and various international con-
icy, procedures such as passport and
ventions on this topic, a Single Global
customs controls are not fully automat-
Sky controlled by fully automated con-
ed yet. The degree of automation of
trol centers distributed around the
these processes depends on the desti-
world was established in 2035. The
nation country. Within Europe for ex-
Project was realized in cooperation of
ample, clear immigration and duty
governments and the two remaining
standards are introduced which are
aircraft operators Sky Asia and Star
valid for all members of the EU and
Alliance as well as national aeronautical
thus allow for a high degree of automa-
authorities.
tion. However, the major global players
of the world in 2050 (China, India, USA,
the EU) have too different concepts of
The technical complexity of automated
immigration and duty policy. Conse-
public road- and rail transport services
quently, intercontinental travelling is still
is well controlled in the prescribed envi-
coined by dealing with diverse entry
ronment of large cities. Road traffic
requirements and regulations.
regulations have been adapted to the
demands of a transport network where
individual transport in conventional cars
The Single European Sky Project was
and unmanned vehicles for public
successfully established. In contrast to
transport coexist. The percentage of
the difficulties with agreeing on stand-
automated public transport vs. individ-
ardized immigration and duty regula-
ual transport varies among countries
tions, all relevant nations have been
and regions from 10/90 around trans-
ambitious about creating a global air-
portation hubs such as large airports
space which enables optimization of
and train stations in megacities (Beijing,
3
New York, New Dehli) to 0/100 in rural
from being certified. However, in the
areas.
cargo sector unmanned flights seem to
be up and coming in the nearer future.
As many times before, the USA and
The awareness of the technological
Asia are ahead of Europe in making
complexity of automation of air
unmanned freight flights legal. Legisla-
transport has led to ambivalent posi-
tion there is far less restrictive than in
tions within and between national bod-
Europe. However, Europe and the USA
ies towards certification of AATS. Thus
profit from a close alliance and their
fully automated flights are not yet al-
common free trading zone which make
lowed despite they are technically real-
them a strong competitor for Asia.
izable. Especially for passenger
transport, unmanned aircraft are far
4
SOCIETY &
DEMOGRAPHICS
As people of all age groups travel, es-
ative smack of pollution. Environmental
pecially the elder generation appreci-
activists succeed in degrading the im-
ate the advantages and comfort of a
age of the air transport sector and large
high level of automation and are thus
corporates for their incapability to admit
open towards technological progress.
climate change.
Their trust in technology is profound.
The success of fully automated road
Urbanization:
and rail transport and further automa-
70% of the worlds' population lives in
tion in daily life (smart homes, consum-
large cities and their suburbs.
er and medical services) has led to a
positive hype of technological innovation by the Media. Every generation that
A rising number and degree of weather
came after 1980 raised with was more
catastrophes keeps the ecological
and more machines facilitating their
awareness growing and causes a neg-
lives.
5
ECOLOGY &
ENERGY
Due to the establishment of the Single
demand has highly increased due to
Global Sky, air traffic management be-
the increased world population. Large-
comes centralized which enables opti-
scale renewable energy power plants
mized flight paths and maneuvers be-
combined with crude oil- and gas pow-
tween the megacities as well as be-
er stations are essential to accommo-
tween megacities and the smaller air-
date the high demand for energy in the
ports around. This leads to a major cut
worlds megacities.
down of fuel consumption and reduces
the emissions per flight.
Climate change has become visible.
More extreme weather conditions arise
The World ’s rising demand for energy
around the world and have negative
leads to higher prices for fossil fuels
effects on the airports. Often airport
and makes renewable energies be-
operators have to cancel several starts
come more lucrative. The electrical
and landings as a result of meteorolog-
drives for on-ground transport systems
ical disturbances. Higher precipitation,
like trains, cars, etc. established. The
heavy hails, tornadoes and more fre-
result is an almost fossil fuel free traffic
quent severe catastrophes make it im-
on ground. While air transport is still
possible to deny the effects of pollution.
reliant on fossil fuels as the main energy source.
Air pollution, especially in the megacities, became a rising issue in politics
The efficiency of machines has been
and another reason for the installation
improved, almost all waste heat is re-
of nuclear power plants.
used. Though the per capita consumption has dropped, the global energy
6
Well-engineered smart grid systems
and an established renewable energy
concept, with nationwide wind parks
and solar energy plants around Europe,
enables the European society to increase the percentage of renewableand nuclear energies up to 60% while
the delivered energy for US households and the industry is still mostly
produced with fossil fuels (75%). The
exponential demand for energy of the
fast rising number of metropolises in
the Asian region can only be met by
newly installed nuclear power plants
combined with an increasing number
of wind parks.
To contain the rising CO2 output of the
industry and especially the transport
sector, strict binding restrictions of the
politic still effect the air transport sector.
While the auto mobility industry fight a
hard battle with the politicians, the airlines and aircraft manufactures have
bigger problems to comply with the
noise control assignments.
7
KEY FACTOR ESSAYS OF
THE AIR TRANSPORT
LAYER
Air Transport layer
Air traffic market
Passenger Behavior
Infrastructure
Technology options
Macro layer
Economy & Business
Politics, Legislation & Regulation
Society & Demographics
Ecology & Energy
8
AIR TRAFFIC MARKET
Megacities serve as hubs in the global
es for travelling by train. The outcome
air traffic network. The main points of
of a competitive price and the ecologi-
intersection are located on the East-
cal awareness of the society, is a rising
and West Coast of the US, in Europe,
percentage of railroad passengers for
Asia and some detached Cities in
short distance journeys.
South America.
In the meantime, travelling by bus
along longer distances became unprofitable as a result of rising prices on fos-
The air routes between the main re-
sil fuels.
gions Europe, China and the US coasts
are the most frequently used paths with
the highest number of passengers.
Airlines have merged to large alliances
to profit from synergy effects (reduced
personnel costs, higher use to capaci-
High capacity planes (>1000 PAX)
ty). Star Alliance and Sky Asia form a
transport large numbers of people be-
duopoly and thus dominate the air traf-
tween these hubs. In order to connect
fic market. Those alliances bought out
the few smaller cities to the main hubs,
some railroad companies to offer door-
conventional short-range aircraft are
to-door tickets and enable smooth trav-
used.
elling along the whole journey.
The short-range transport market is
To cope with the large number of pas-
driven by a competition between the
sengers, the aircraft operators auto-
airlines, and the railroad industry. Pri-
mate their services in large parts. This
vatization of the railroad industry in al-
has led and still leads to massive in-
most every region, results in lower pric-
vestments in the aviation sector.
9
PASSENGER
BEHAVIOUR
Passengers of a broad range of age
travel. The aged population is very mobile and open towards travelling.
world. Due to efficient and fast intermodal travel, the distances are
perceived shorter.
The large numbers of passengers acReasons for Air Travel are diverse:
•
•
•
cept the automated procedures of
The members of the grown middle
class can afford holidays to basically any destination.
reaching the airport and check-in. They
A closely connected global economy leads to stable level in business travelling. Although communication technologies such as audio
and video conferences are increasingly safe, comfortable and reliable;
companies stick to temporal personal meetings.
consider travelling by plane to be a re-
Commuting Traffic between the
hubs is very common, even large
distances are flown regularly. Many
people live in one and work in another city permanently and families
are more widely spread over the
their destination, they decide against
appreciate to travel quicker and with a
lower stress level. In general, people
laxed way of travelling, especially for
long distances.
Although people do not consider air
travel as the greenest way of reaching
trains on long and medium-long range
distances. On short distances however,
passengers often travel by train.
10
PASSENGER
BEHAVIOUR
Two passengers report about their experiences:
-
-
-
11
INFRASTRUCTURE
Automation enables a smooth and effi-
versal docking station was invented.
cient way of starting
The Cleaning of the planes is done by
the airports and yet at public transport
machines and supervised by a human.
stations Check-in and baggage dropoff systems are offered to ensure the
easy and comfortable way of travelling
Public transport in the cities has been
already starts at the next subway sta-
fully automated 20 years ago with an
tion.
enormous success. Incidents caused
by human failure have vanished and
the technical components are as relia-
Ground Handling is fully automated.
ble as never before. With this system
Catering and refueling happen without
passengers reach the main hub air-
human interference. Therefore a uni-
ports via a completely automated roadand rail shuttle.
12
TECHNOLOGY
OPTIONS
At last: Software Security is near 100%.
•
•
•
and interact with the passengers on
board and at the airport. This enables
Data Transfer is thus simplified and
allows a highly automated passenger handling.
The controlling units (e.g. the autopilot) in the aircraft are protected
against external threats.
Consequently a necessary condition for a centralized coordination of
air traffic is given.
•
an increased efficiency and customization despite large numbers of passengers.
High level of electrification of on-board
systems, actuators, etc. allows weight
savings which lead also to extensive
fuel savings.
Technical innovations such as lightweight materials, aerodynamically improved geometries, less need for re-
Redesigned cabin concepts may allow
dundancy and economically optimized
differentiated use of space. Besides the
engines lead to reduction of fuel con-
general seats, there could be an office
sumption.
for example for online meetings,
presentations, etc. in the business
class. That allows the passengers to
Holograms, digital devices and bio-
use the time of flight more efficiently.
metric documents may help to identify
13
KEY FINDINGS
1 Completely automated public onground transport services are established.
2 The air traffic market is a dominated by two large aircraft operators.
3 Despite the effects of climate
change, the media hype technology positively and people are
open to technological progress.
4 A robust economy has led to a
large middle class with a large demand for air transportation between
5 Fully automated flights are not yet allowed due to certification issues. A human
pilot is in charge of his highly automated
aircraft at any time.
14
15
SCENARIO VISION
16
FROM THE SCENARIO
TO A PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
1. Scenario Writing
2. HLRs
3. CONOPs
4. Product Ideas
5. NABC
6. Product Development
17
HIGH LEVEL
REQUIREMENTS (HLRs)
General HLRs:

 Processes should be self-explanatory to passengers of all age groups
and all nationalities.
 Minimization of costs for personnel.
 Individualization of all interactions with the passenger (language, cultural
background, personal preferences).
 Minimizing the price for air travel such that 99% of the worl
can afford it.
 Maintaining a certain service level.
 Creation of a green image of products.
HLRs for In-Flight Automation:







Minimizing delays and network disruptions caused by weather issues.
Increase of the number of direct connections.
Maximization of the capacity of used air space.
Increase of the load factor of airplanes (passengers, baggage and cargo).
Cut down of fuel consumption.
Reduce noise pollution.
Improved engine efficiency.
HLRs for On-Ground Automation:
 Enabling a hassle-free and quick inter-modal connection for passengers
of all age groups.
 Especially efficient processes for frequent flyers.
 Increase of efficiency of passenger baggage logistics.
 Cut down of fuel consumption by improving ground-op efficiency.
 Decreasing energy consumption during on-ground processes.
 Increase of the number of passengers handled per hour.
18
CONCEPTS OF
OPERATIONS (CONOPS)
Tanji Pong (*1983)
67 years old, Chinese teacher in Hiroshima,
from Shanghai, China:
(weekly commuting traveler)
6:30
Mercurius wakes Mr. Pong according to the time the program has calculated
which is necessary to reach the airport punctually
6:50
Mr. Pong leaves his home
6:57
He boards the fully automated metro which takes him to the airport shuttle transit
station
7:05
The high-speed airport train arrives
and takes Mr. Pong to the
international airport PVG. On his
way, Mercurius...
...tells him where he will arrive at the airport,
...indicates which CBS line is the shortest,
...shows him the way to his Gate A24
7:18
Mr. Pong enters the airport and proceeds directly to the CBS terminal indicated by
Mercurius.
7:25
On the ways to his gate, he passes numerous shops
7:30
Arrival at Gate A24, immediate boarding
19
7:32
Mr. Pong takes his seat, xxx is launched automatically, he can begins correcting
exams of his students while the last passenger board the plane
7:40
Flight SA34897 takes off, which Mr.Pong barely notices
7:55
A light breakfast is served, which the teacher has ordered via Mercurius in the
airport shuttle
8:12
Turbulences shake the plane, but Mr. Pong can continue his work without
problems
8:30
Mercurius notifies Mr. Pong that the flight will end in about 15 min and provides
him with necessary information on his onward journey from HIJ to his school.
8:45
The plane lands safely in HIJ, Mr. Pong exits the plane and proceeds directly to
the baggage pickis shown on his mobile device by Mercurius. He decides to use the five minutes for
a short coffee break at his favorite café.
8:56
9:01
Within Asia, no passport and custom controls are necessary, Mr. Pong can go
directly to the train station where an automated train takes him downtown.
9:15 His lesson begins
20
2013 AND 2050
A COMPARISON
A comparison of travelling time today and 2050 by means of the door-to-door journey from Shanghai (SHA) to Hiroshima (HIJ). Figure 1 shows a direct comparison of
each step of a typical journey, we expect for 2050. Figure 2 shows the sum of all
time savings alongside the journey while figure 3 shows, when Mr. Pong have to
start his travel to reach his lesson on time.
The amount of time that can be reduced in each step
transit
at the airport
in-flight
at the airport
transit to destination
leave security area
customs control
border control
baggage pick up
get off the plane at the gate
flight to destination airport
finding seat
enter the aircraft
proceed to gate
ticket/baggage/security check
arrive at Airport
fully automated transit to Airport
transport to transit station
walk to subway station
01:40
01:30
01:20
01:10
01:00
00:50
00:40
00:30
00:20
00:10
00:00
2050
2013
transit
Figure 1: Expected time savings
21
A comparison of the effective
travelling time:
Diagrammtitel
2050
2013
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
walk to subway station
transport to transit station
transit to Airport
arrive at Airport
ticket/baggage/security check
proceed to gate
enter the aircraft
finding seat
flight to destination airport
get off the plane at the gate
baggage pick up
border control
customs control
leave security area
Ready for oardi g
05:00
transit to destination
Figure 2: Sum of the travelling time
The effect of the reduction Diagrammtitel
in travel time:
2050
2013
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
departure
walk to subway station
transport to transit station
transit to Airport
arrive at Airport
ticket/baggage/security check
proceed to gate
Ready for oardi g
enter the aircraft
finding seat
flight to destination airport
get off the plane at the gate
baggage pick up
border control
customs control
leave security area
transit to destination
Figure 3: Expected Start times
22
PRODUCT IDEA:
CBS Walk-Through
The CBS Walk-Through combines three
Without noticing, a whole-body scanner
stages traveler has to pass before
has done the security check of the
boarding an aircraft: Check-In, Bag-
passenger in the CBS and he is now
gage drop-off and the Security check.
ready to proceed to his gate. In total,
By merging these three originally time
he has not spend more than a minute in
intensive processes, the waiting time
the CBS unit, which is why he consid-
for travellers at airports is massively
ers it as a walk-through process.
reduced.
In case the security check detects an
When the traveler enters a CBS unit, it
object which may not be taken into the
automatically collects all personal in-
plane (knifes, weapons etc.), the prob-
formation and travelling data from his
lem is indicated to the passenger via
electronic passport and a retina scan
clear message on large screens (in the
contact-free and within seconds. In
correct language, of course) and pas-
case the passenger uses Mercurius,
sage is denied. Depending on the na-
the CBS sends an e-ticket the flight da-
ture of the object, the traveller may
solve the situation on his own by leav-
device. Otherwise, he receives it via an
ing the object behind or security per-
alternative communication stream, cho-
sonnel takes care of the situation. Every
sen in the CBS via a voice command.
security guard is in charge of ten CBS
units; he or she supervises the highly
At the same time, the traveler places
his baggage on an ergonomic convey-
automated passages and intervenes in
such cases.
or belt. A chip is attached to the suitcase such that the owner can track it
In total, the passenger saves a lot of
throughout the whole journey. Again,
time because he only needs to stand in
Mercurius is able to support this func-
line once - and these lines are short. In
tion.
95% of the cases, the CBS check re23
sembles a walk through a mere gate
beverages at the airport. Furthermore
and thus the passenger starts has a far
only one person is needed to supervise
less stressful stay at the airport. Thus,
ten CBS units, consequently personnel
he das more time for other things
costs can be further reduced.
be it
working or purchasing gifts, food and
PRODUCT IDEA:
Mercurius: Integral Travelling Information System
Mercurius is a software package, which
the airport or the gate where he enters
the passenger installs on his personal
the plane.
mobile device. The program supports
travellers throughout their whole jour-
The aspect of personalization is the
second major benefit of Mercurius. A
ney.
businessman, who uses the plane for
One of the key features of Mercurius is
commuting travel regularly, has com-
its integrated time management system,
pletely different demands than a family
flying to their holiday destination. The
travelling schedule in real-time. Ac-
software offers several options on the
cord
and needs, Mercurius computes the
travelling time schedule will be based
expected travelling time. This way, the
program can send notifications to the
user profile
user indicating the necessary time of
and optional manual input, Mercurius
departure from the current position in
may guide a traveller to his gate in a
ion on time
minimum amount of time or lead him
be it the transit station on the way to
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slowly around passing his favorite
offers an audio and a visual interface.
shops and restaurants.
In order to avoid the disturbance of
other travellers, the audio function only
Since it is a widely spread software,
Mercurius has access to the data of a
large amount of travelers and can thus
control the workload of different parts of
the airport by leading passengers into
works in connection with an earpiece.
The visual interface is realized via an
advanced augmented reality function.
Invisible for other people, all infor-
mation is projected directly into the us-
different directions and distributing
them equally (always regarding the
All in all, Mercurius is a cutting edge
software program offering an efficient
course).
time management system and intuitive,
The mean of communication can be
personalized orientation services at
chosen individually as well. Mercurius
airport.
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PRODUCT IDEA:
XXX: Individual work bench
XXX stands for a system offering pas-
over the world from the xxx computer.
sengers the possibility to use the time
on-board from the moment they enter
the plane until they arrive at the gate of
their destination airport. As soon as the
traveler arrives at his seat, he has the
possibility to launch the system consisting mainly of a personal computer. He
can leave his own notebook or tablet
safely stored away because he can
access his data stored on servers all
It is not necessary to shut down the
system during taxi, takeoff or landing. A
keyboard can be projected onto an arbitrary surface such that he can even
continue typing then. Privacy is guaranteed; if the user does not want to use
the screen, the content can be projected directly into his eye instead such
that no information is open to any of the
other passengers. Ergonomically, using
xxx is far better than the utilization of a
conventional mobile computer device,
because control surfaces and visual
interface are decoupled.
If the passenger wants to make use of
any non-open source software, he can
purchase temporal licenses for all programs on the global market for the time
of the flight, quickly download it and
use it until the aircraft arrives at the
destination airport. All results are automatically stored regularly such that the
risk of data loss is minimized.
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For passengers who want to use the
To sum it all up, xxx offers passengers
flight for some leisure time, xxx offers a
the possibility to use their time on-
large choice of various entertainment
board exactly as they want it to
possibilities such as videos, music, e-
gardless of the phase of the flight. Es-
books and -magazines or video games.
pecially for business purposes, xxx
A broad choice of these media is avail-
creates the optimal conditions to ena-
able for free; less known movies, songs
ble a concentrated working session
etc. can be purchased and download-
throughout the whole flight.
re-
ed during the flight.
27
NABC ANALYSIS:
Mercurius: Integral Travelling Information System
Need
Approach
Benefit
Challenges
Time Management,
Hassle-Free intermodal transfer,
Orientation at foreign airports
software installed on a mobile device, which guides
the passenger during the whole journey
functions:
serves as e-ticket
includes a time management function, connected
to real-time travelling data
guidance on the way to the airport airport
provides information on departure and destination
airport infrastructure
Efficient Time Management: automatic reminders
make sure that the passenger is on time and never
spends to much time on waiting.
 More relaxed way of travelling
Seamless intermodal transfers: no more cumbersome
transfers with long waiting periods or delays
Intuitive and personalized orientation service at
airports
Minimization of delays of the fully automated airport
shuttle services, exact time scheduling
Maintenance of the high level of software security,
protection of Mercurius against external attacks
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NABC ANALYSIS:
XXX: Individual work bench
Need
Approach
Benefit
Challenges
time i.e. the time during which the traveler can
freely decide what he would like to do.
Especially the creation of a working environment
throughout the stay on board (including taxi, takeoff
and landing)
Every seat in all planes is equipped with a
powerful personal computer offering the following
functionality:
automatic launch when the passenger requests
it possible at any time during the journey
access to personal data stored on large
capacity servers via the broad-band internet
connection
communication such audio and video
conferences are available in high quality
combination with high-end in-flight
entertainment
Maximization of the time used according to the
Optimal working conditions on board
Dealing with the large data volume arising from the
possibility for all passengers to download files from
the internet
29