Cooperation and Conflict
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Changing Belarus?: The Limits of EU Governance in Eastern Europe and
the Promise of Partnership
Giselle Bosse and Elena Korosteleva-Polglase
Cooperation and Conflict 2009; 44; 143
DOI: 10.1177/0010836709102736
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Changing Belarus?
The Limits of EU Governance in Eastern Europe
and the Promise of Partnership
GISELLE BOSSE AND ELENA
KOROSTELEVA-POLGLASE
ABSTRACT
Since the end of the Cold War, European Union (EU) efforts in transforming Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been enormously
successful. The 2004 enlargement is widely regarded as the single
most effective foreign policy strategy in the Union’s history, and the
recent European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was designed to repeat
that success in countries located on the EU’s new Eastern borders.
Although the ENP has been the subject of substantive discussion in
European academia, Belarus is the one country in Eastern Europe
that has largely escaped scholarly attention. This article takes stock
of recent developments in EU–Belarus relations and seeks to explain
the very limited leverage of the EU over the country. We first examine
the EU’s relations with Belarus through the theoretical lens of external
governance. By taking for granted the EU’s ability to transfer its norms
and values, however, the governance perspective does not account for
the EU’s very limited success in changing Belarus. We therefore revisit
Michael Smith’s notion of ‘boundaries of order’ to highlight the impact
of legal/institutional, transactional, cultural and geopolitical factors on
EU–Belarus relations. We argue, in particular, that the existence and
the construction of boundaries between the Union and its neighbouring
states are essentially mutually constitutive processes. Besides shifting
its own boundaries (and thereby extending its rules to outsiders), the
EU is itself subject to the boundaries enacted by neighbouring states.
In our conclusion, we juxtapose the notion of external governance as
‘rule transfer’ with ‘partnership’ as a more suitable mode of interaction
between the EU and Belarus.
Keywords: Belarus; boundaries of order; Eastern partnership; EU
external governance
Cooperation and Conflict: Journal of the Nordic International Studies Association
Vol. 44(2): 143–165. © NISA 2009 www.nisanet.org
SAGE Publications, Los Angeles, London, New Delhi, Singapore, and Washington DC
www.sagepublications.com
0010-8367. DOI: 10.1177/0010836709102736
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COOPERATION AND CONFLICT 44(2)
Introduction
Since the end of the Cold War, the European Union’s (EU) efforts in
transforming Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) through economic and
political reforms have been enormously successful. The 2004 enlargement
of CEE is widely regarded as having been the single most effective foreign
policy strategy in the Union’s history (e.g. Prodi, 2002; Commission, 2003:
5; Patten, 2003: 3; Solana, 2006: 2). The recent European Neighbourhood
Policy (ENP) was designed to build on the success of democratic and economic reforms in CEE by fostering stability and prosperity in countries
located on the EU’s new Eastern borders, specifically Ukraine and Moldova
(e.g. Ferrero-Waldner, 2006: 2, 2008; Missiroli, 2007). Although the content,
aims and potential impact of the ENP have been the subject of substantive
critical discussion throughout European academia (e.g. Wallace, 2003; K. E.
Smith, 2005; Del Sarto and Schumacher, 2005; Tulmets, 2005; Kelly, 2006),
one country in Eastern Europe has largely escaped scholarly attention in
the context of the ENP, namely Belarus.
In much of the literature, Belarus is portrayed as the ‘last dictatorship’ of
the European continent or as an oddity of sorts, an ultimate ‘outsider’ (e.g.
Dingley, 1994; Marples, 2005; Raik, 2006). The country remains sidelined
in academic discourse and analysis. Few if any efforts have been made to
take stock of recent developments in recent EU–Belarus relations and to
explain the limited leverage of the EU over the government of President
Lukashenko and the Belarusian population.
This article places Belarus at the centre of analysis. We aim first to
examine recent relations between the EU and Belarus through the theoretical framework of external governance. An increasing number of scholars
conceptualize the EU’s recent relations with its Eastern neighbours as an
instance of EU external governance (e.g. Hubel, 2004; Lavenex, 2004, 2008;
Raik, 2006; Lavenex et al., 2007; Gänzle, 2008). The external governance
perspective focuses on the multi-level and multi-actor character of EU
external policies, in contrast to the vertical, bureaucratic notion of hierarchical government (Lavenex, 2008: 940). This perspective yields considerable potential in taking stock of recent developments in EU relations with
Belarus, since traditional vertical political relations at ministerial level have
been suspended by the Council of Ministers since 1997 (General Affairs
Council, 1997: 13). EU external governance does, however, imply the
transfer of ‘a system of rules which exceeds the voluntarism implicit in the
term co-operation’ (Lavenex, 2004: 682, 2008: 940). By taking for granted
the Union’s capacity and legitimacy to transfer its rules, the governance
perspective does not account for the EU’s limited success in transferring
its acquis communautaire or its ‘values’ to Belarus. We therefore develop
Michael Smith’s notion of boundaries (M. E. Smith, 1996) in order to
highlight the impact of legal/institutional, transactional, cultural and geopolitical factors on recent EU–Belarus relations and the EU’s leverage over
the country.
In the first part of the article, we briefly review the assumptions of the
external governance approach, highlight its limitations and introduce the
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BOSSE AND KOROSTELEVA-POLGLASE: CHANGING BELARUS?
145
notion of boundaries to EU governance. In the two empirical parts that
follow, we examine the contours of EU’s relations with Belarus and highlight the factors conditioning its influence. In our conclusion, we juxtapose
the notion of governance as ‘rule transfer’ (Lavenex, 2004: 681) with
‘partnership’, as a more suitable (and potentially more successful) mode of
interaction between the EU and Belarus.
Part I: External Governance and Boundaries of EU Influence
The dominant trend from approximately 2004 onwards has been to conceptualize the ENP as an instance of EU external governance (e.g. Hubel,
2004; Lavenex, 2004, 2008; Raik, 2006; Weber et al., 2007; Gänzle, 2008).
External governance frameworks draw the analytical focus to exploring the
relationship between the EU and ENP partner states and specifically to the
mechanisms or modes of interaction that are present in the relationship.
Sandra Lavenex conceptualizes the ENP ‘as part of an ambitious external governance agenda by the enlarged Union’ and in terms of the ‘institutional configuration of EU relations with its near abroad’ (2004: 680). She
emphasizes the EU’s ability to exercise external governance vis-à-vis neighbouring states by expanding its institutional and legal order. She further distinguishes the legal/regulatory from the institutional/organizational mode of
EU governance. The former concerns the transfer of EU rules (policies,
the acquis, bilateral agreements), whereas the latter entails the inclusion
in EU policy structures and joint decision-making at lower political levels
via ‘horizontal network governance’ (in agencies, assistance projects,
cross-border cooperation, exchanges, training, etc.) (Lavenex, 2004, 2008:
5–7). The analytical focus on policy linkages and interaction between the
EU and ENP partner states at lower political levels is particularly useful
when taking stock of current EU–Belarus relations because high-level institutional cooperation at ministerial/government level has been ‘frozen’ by
the Council since 1997 (Vieira and Bosse, 2008).
Other modes of governance exercised by the Union towards neighbouring states are commonly categorized as ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ governance. The
Union applies soft governance through the appeal of its norms and values,
for example, ‘through the prospect of enlargement’ (Friis and Murphy, 1999:
226), which in turn has socialization effects on partner states: ‘(…) taking
part in the process of governance transforms the values and preferences
of a social actor, making them “community compatible”’ (Raik, 2006: 81).
The notion of ‘hard governance’ refers to ‘governing through negotiations’
and bargaining/package deals (Friis and Murphy, 1999: 214–15). This is
essentially the mode of governance that is based on hierarchy, negotiation
and conditionality (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier, 2004). A detailed analysis of the contours of ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ modes of EU external governance
will help to further explore the Union’s current approach towards Belarus.
In its official statements, the Union continuously underlines the ‘twin-track’
nature of its approach towards Belarus, based on strict conditionality visà-vis the regime, and, at the same time, on the promise to support and ‘win
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the hearts and minds’ of the Belarusian population (General Affairs and
External Relations Council, 2005, 2006; see also Bosse, 2008a).
Whereas the external governance approach yields much promise in analysing the current state and shape of EU relations with Belarus, with its
focus on different modes of governance it is less suitable for explaining the
variation in the EU’s leverage over countries located in its neighbourhood.
EU external governance means ‘rule-extension towards non-member
states’ and, according to Lavenex, is ‘more than “co-operation” as it implies
a system of rules which exceeds the voluntarism implicit in the term cooperation’ (Lavenex, 2004: 682, Hubel, 2004: 349–50). In other words, the
external governance approach assumes the Union is capable of extending
its rules (with or without the agreement of the respective neighbouring country) as naturally given. By accepting EU external governance to exist ex ante,
however, the approach cannot account for the factors that enable and/or
constrain the Union’s ability to expand its rules in the first instance. Belarus
is a case in which EU ‘rule transfer’ is by no means self-evident, and one
of the most important analytical challenges is indeed to conceptualize and
explore the factors that impact on the Union’s influence over the country.
We therefore re-visit Michael Smith’s notion of ‘boundaries of order’
as a conceptual tool by which to capture the limits of EU governance in
Belarus. According to Smith, different types of boundaries — geopolitical,
institutional/legal, transactional and cultural — ‘exist or can be constructed
between the Union and its environment’ (M. E. Smith, 1996: 13).1 However, whereas Smith maintains that ‘the key variable […] is the ability of
the Union to draw, to maintain or to modify a boundary between itself
and the changing European order’ and that the ‘EU can structure and control the linkages between insiders and outsiders’ (M. E. Smith, 1996: 12),
we argue that the existence and the construction of boundaries between the
Union and its neighbouring states are essentially a two-way or ‘mutually
constitutive’ process (Barth, 1969; Newman and Paasi, 1998). In other
words, besides constructing and shifting its own boundaries (and thereby
extending its own rules to outsiders), the EU is itself subject to the boundaries constructed by neighbouring countries and/or regions. We argue
that these boundaries, in particular, severely constrain the EU’s ability to
exercise external governance.
Smith’s conceptualizations of the legal/institutional, geopolitical, transactional and cultural boundaries do not therefore solely comprise the boundaries ‘erected by the EU’ (M. E. Smith, 1996: 15). The legal/institutional
boundary between the EU and neighbouring states is not just constituted
by the EU’s ability or decision to exclude or include third states in its legal,
institutional or administrative order (M. E. Smith, 1996: 15–16), but also by,
for example, the legal/institutional ties between a neighbouring state and
other states in the region (i.e. Belarus’s treaties with the Russian Federation).
Also the ‘mismatch’ between the legal, institutional and administrative
order of the EU and the system in the respective neighbouring state can
constitute a significant boundary on the Union’s influence. Transactional
boundaries refer to the restrictions on the movement of goods, capital, services and persons across the borders separating the Union and third states
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(Friis and Murphy, 1999: 217). This boundary, too, can be constituted
by the border and visa regime of the EU, but also by the border politics
of the third country. Geopolitical boundaries are not constituted solely
by the EU’s geopolitical interests or discourses (M. E. Smith, 1996: 15).
The dominance of US/Iranian interests in the Middle East, US/Russian/
Turkish interests in the South Caucasus and the increasing prevalence of
Russian interests in its ‘near abroad’ (specifically Belarus) are fairly obvious reminders of the boundaries inhibiting EU influence over its neighbourhood. The focus on geopolitical boundaries therefore draws attention
to the geopolitical positioning of an ENP partner state like Belarus in wider
international/regional relations, as well as to changes and continuities in the
interpretation of the international environment (i.e. the EU and its policies)
by neighbouring states. Cultural boundaries are not only constructed by
the EU and ‘European exceptionalism’, which is based on the Union’s
values ‘expressed or written in such a way as to make others a threat’ (M.
E. Smith, 1996: 17). Cultural boundaries are also constituted by ‘valuesgaps’ between EU member states and ENP partners which originate in
the domestic political culture or elite perceptions/values in neighbouring
states (form of government/regime, state-society relations, transparency
and communication, public opinion) (Bogutscaia et al., 2006). As Hiski
Haukkala recently observed, the ‘liberal consensus’, which has dominated
much of the immediate post-Cold War world, has started to erode, and, as
a result, so has the ‘automatic’ pull of the EU as a role or export model of
governance (Haukkala, 2007).
In the empirical analysis that follows, we explore the current state and
shape of EU–Belarus relations through the theoretical lenses of the external
governance approach and its focus on different modes of interaction: as
‘hard’ and ‘soft’ as well as network modes of governance. We then examine
the effect of institutional/legal, transactional, geopolitical and cultural
boundaries between the EU and Belarus on the ability of the EU effectively
to exercise ‘rule-transfer’ through each respective mode of governance.
Part II: The Modes of EU Relations with Belarus and Their Legal,
Institutional and Administrative Boundaries
‘Hard’ Mode of Governance and Conditionality
Relations between the Union and Belarus had looked very promising just
after the end of the Cold War. The EC recognized Belarus’s independence
in December 1991 and until 1994 their relations were based on the Trade
and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) concluded with the USSR in 1989.
In 1995, the EC and Belarus signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) as well as an Interim Trade Agreement to bridge the time
until the PCA’s final ratification by all member states. Between 1994 and
1997, however, the positive trend in EU–Belarus relations came to an end
following President Lukashenko’s attempt to extend his presidential mandate in a referendum in 1996 by changing the constitution and increasing
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repression in Belarus of the opposition, independent media and the judiciary. These developments prompted the European Council in 1997 to
suspend the process of ratification of the PCA and to freeze the Interim
Agreement. Since then, EU relations with Belarus have remained covered
by the 1989 TCA, which does not include any provisions for regulatory
approximation to the EU’s trade-related acquis. The 1997 Council decision
also restricted all political contacts with Belarus to below ministerial level.
The only other legal instrument binding the Union and Belarus is the 1993
bilateral agreement on trade in textile products (Piontek, 2006). Briefly, the
EU has reinforced its legal/institutional boundary through suspension of
the PCA and all high-level political dialogue.
In 2002/3 the EU began to develop what was then called the ‘Wider
Europe–New Neighbourhood Strategy’, initially designed as a response
to the challenges and opportunities arising from the Union’s new Eastern
border. The emphasis here was clearly on Ukraine, but Belarus was considered as a partner or ‘subject’ of a new neighbourhood policy right from
the start. The Commission and High Representative initially highlighted an
‘upgrading of the PCA relations with Ukraine and Moldova’ with Belarus
being a ‘different partner’, yet still a central focus of the Union’s efforts
to ‘engage more actively in resolving problems’ on its ‘doorstep’ (Patten
and Solana, 2002: 3–4). In October 2002, the General Affairs and External
Relations Council even stated its intent to develop enhanced relations with
‘Ukraine, Belarus and at a later stage Moldova’ (GAERC, 2002). The 2003
Commission Communication on ‘Wider Europe–New Neighbourhood’
did not, however, present a clear strategy for engagement with Belarus. It
stated that:
The EU faces a choice over Belarus: either to leave things to drift – a policy
for which the people of Belarus may pay dear and one which prevents the
EU from pursuing increased cooperation on issues of mutual interest – or to
engage, and risk sending a signal of support for policies which do not conform
to EU values. (Commission, 2003: 15)
Between 2004 and 2006, the EU started drafting Country Reports as well
as Action Plans for implementation of the ENP with most partner states,
including the Mediterranean and South Caucasus, excluding Belarus. The
2006 Commission Communication on ‘Strengthening the ENP’ makes no
mention of Belarus (Commission, 2006a). Instead, the Commission issued
a ‘non-paper’ in December 2006 which essentially contains a list of democratization measures ‘reflecting a principled, non-compromising approach’.
It states that ‘the EU cannot offer to deepen its relations with a regime
which denies its citizens their fundamental democratic rights’ and demands
‘political, economic and administrative reforms’ (Commission, 2006b). The
non-paper is yet another expression of the Union’s ‘governance through
conditionality’ approach: adoption of political and economic reforms in
return for full participation in the neighbourhood policy.
In summary, the Union has set and maintains a strict legal and institutional boundary between itself and Belarus and it tries to transfer its rules
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(political reforms) through conditionality as a mode of ‘hard’ governance.
The EU’s ‘hard’ governance, however, has had no measurable effect on the
Lukashenko government, not least because the broad and almost ‘existential’
conditions set out in the non-paper cannot feasibly be implemented at once.
As George Dura notes, ‘Lukashenko would have to democratise Belarusian
politics and society, thereby seriously jeopardising his future as Belarus’
president’ (2008: 6).
Hard vs. Soft Governance?
Still, there is more to the Union’s neighbourhood policy than hard governance. The mode of soft governance is reflected in the EU’s efforts to ‘win
the hearts and minds’ of the Belarusian population as expressed in the 2004
Commission Strategy Paper:
More can be done […], in particular to support civil society, democratisation,
independent media, the alleviation of problems in the areas affected by the
Chernobyl disaster, humanitarian assistance as well as regional cooperation.
(Commission, 2004: 4; 12)
The support for civil society and NGOs is financed through the Neighbourhood Programmes (2005–6) and the European Neighbourhood and
Partnership Instrument (ENPI) from 2007.2 Assistance in 2005–6 totalled
€10m (€8m committed) and focused on (i) support for institutional, legal
and administrative reform and (ii) on support in addressing the social
consequences of transition, including support of civil society and democratization, education and training and support of the alignment with
international conventions (Country Strategy Paper, 2005–6). Additional
assistance was also provided via the European Instrument for Democracy
and Human Rights (EIDHR) (€5m in total, €2m from TACIS budget)
(Country Strategy Paper 2005–6). The ENPI is a new EC assistance tool
and comprises national, regional, cross-border and thematic components.
Belarus receives assistance for projects under the thematic programmes
‘Democracy and Human Rights’ and ‘Non-State Actors and Local
Authorities Development’, the national component (€5m p.a.) including
actions to alleviate the consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe and
democratic development and good governance (Country Strategy Paper,
2007–13).
Whether and how this assistance translates into actual ‘soft governance’
on the ground is not clear. Most projects that have been funded through
TACIS since 2005 aim at improving border management. A mere €130,000
was allocated to micro projects (human rights/democracy). €2m went into
awareness-raising TV/Radio programmes for Belarus, but the funds only
supported projects and project partners outside Belarus, i.e. a radio station
for Belarus broadcasting from Poland.3 One specific problem that frequently
occurs in the funding of ‘grass-roots’ and NGOs is the lengthy registration
process for projects, which effectively gives the Belarusian authorities a veto
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on proposed projects. According to a Commission official, projects under
the Annual Programs that have already been agreed in partnership with the
relevant mid-level authorities are often rejected by the central authority,
which refuses to register them.4 The very strict auditing rules and regulations
of the TACIS instrument are also to blame for the difficulties in allocating
funding to unregistered NGOs. The rules of the ENPI contain even stricter
criteria which organizations participating in projects have to meet. This is
one of the reasons why, even within the European Commission, the ENPI
is not considered a useful tool for funding bottom-up/civil society projects,
especially in countries that do not welcome such support.5 Because of their
greater flexibility and direct funding channels (which do not require the
prior agreement of national authorities), the EIDHR and the Non-State
Actor Programmes are designed to finance the majority of civil society projects in the future (Bosse, 2008b: 52–3).6 The suitability of the ENP/ENPI as
a tool of ‘soft governance’ in support of civil society and NGOs in Belarus
is therefore questionable.
The EU itself appears to hamper the effect of its ‘soft’ governance approach towards Belarus through its lack of direct financial commitment
to the Belarusian population and by having erected serious administrative
boundaries to financing civil society through the ENPI. That boundary
is further reinforced by the ‘mismatch’ between the EU’s administrative
order (strict auditing rules) and the (lack of) institutional/legal framework
in Belarus.
EU Rule Transfer through Networks?
Technical or expert cooperation, however limited, has been a relatively
consistent feature of cross-border/regional cooperation under the TACIS
instrument. Belarusian Oblast’ (regions) participate in three of the EU’s
cross-border cooperation (CBC) programmes: Latvia–Lithuania–Belarus,
Poland–Belarus–Ukraine and the Baltic Sea Programme. All three projects
continue to be financed under the ENPI. Belarus has hosted several meetings
of project selection committees, and cooperation on border crossing/service
issues is generally regarded as constructive.7 At the same time, and possibly
as a side effect of shifting TACIS/ENPI finances towards non-controversial/
technical projects, even meetings between the Commission and Belarusian
line ministries on the indicative programmes have become less political.8 A
novelty of the ENPI is the requirement for third countries to sign financing
agreements with the Commission, which then adopts the annual action programmes without additional approval by the member states (Council, 2006).
This has further led to the de-politicization of cooperation, which tended to
be characterized by formal exchanges of official political rhetoric.9 In the
words of one Commission official commenting on recent technical meetings
with Belarusian officials, ‘everyone involved knows the situation’ and the
Commission only ‘puts its lines’ if requested by the Council.10 The mutual
agreement on pragmatic engagement can be interpreted as a small but significant socialization effect (Raik, 2006) not just on Belarusian officials, but
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also on EU officials towards a common style of interaction and negotiation.
That in turn might lead to a slight reduction in the formal cultural/political
or ‘values’ boundary constraining much of the interaction between the EU
and Belarus.
The Commission appears to be moving towards an approach of technical
engagement with Belarus in other policy areas, too. The 2004 ENP Strategy
Paper confirms that:
[…] if significant positive developments take place in democratisation in
Belarus, there is scope for more active engagement with the Belarusian
authorities at political level. Contacts between officials at technical level could
be intensified and meetings at senior level, such as the Regional Directors’
Troika resumed. (Commission, 2004: 11)
Contrary to the ‘principled’ conditionality approach of its 12-point nonpaper, the Commission’s recent interpretation of ‘significant positive development’ appears to be measured against fairly small political steps taken
by the Belarusian authorities, such as the release of political prisoners. In
January 2008 and following the release of three political prisoners, experts
from the Commission met their Belarusian counterparts in Minsk to discuss
‘technical matters relating to the energy and transport situation in the EU
and Belarus’, and an additional meeting took place in early February on
environmental issues (Commission, 2008a). The areas discussed in these
technical meetings range from the identification of joint interests and possible projects, such as the improvement of safety of trucks, to investment
plans or Russia’s North and South Stream Projects.11 On part of the Union,
usually officials from DG RELEX and the relevant line DGs participate,
together with experts at or below the deputy ministerial level. According
to one Commission official, the Belarusian side is always very well prepared, professional and committed not to exploit the meetings for media
propaganda.12 It is important to note that both the Commission as well as
Belarusian officials see these meetings as instances of cooperation based
on shared interests and partnership (rather than ‘rule-transfer’). According
to Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner, there can be possible spillover effects
from technical to political cooperation: ‘The holding of technical meetings
between experts of both sides could lay the ground for substantial cooperation in the framework of full partnership […]’ (Commission, 2008a: 1).
The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding with Belarus on the
establishment of a fully fledged EC Delegation in Minsk on 7 March 2008
may serve as an opportunity for the Commission to further develop expert
cooperation with the relevant stakeholders in Belarus.
Belarusian experts are also included in technical meetings and training
events to address issues of strengthening and reinforcement of asylum, migration and border management standards and capacities within the framework of the ‘Söderköping Process’. This comprises an annual senior level
review meeting and working level cluster meetings for migration service and
border guard officials, as well as non-governmental organizations (Country
Strategy Paper, 2007: 13–15).13 These instances of technical cooperation, as
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a mode of governance, have already led to some EU ‘rule transfer’, including
the transition to international standards of border control in Belarus, such
as the establishment of an International Training Centre on Migration and
Combating Trafficking in Human Beings in Minsk in July 2007 or the introduction of an automated control system at all border check points.14
The ability of the EU to exert governance through technical networks remains difficult to judge, because many of the expert networks have emerged
very recently and/or take place on an ad hoc basis. Small aspects of the
formal political/cultural or ‘values’ boundary between the EU and Belarus
are potentially being reduced because both EU and Belarusian officials
have agreed on a common style of interaction in many of these networks.
That, however, is less the result of EU rule-transfer and more the result of a
mutually accepted agreement based on partnership. Evidence of actual EU
rule-transfer is scarce and limited to the establishment of border control
standards or training facilities.
Apart from constructing many of its very own legal, institutional and
administrative boundaries to exercising effective ‘soft’, ‘hard’ or network
governance, the EU’s limited influence on Belarus is also due to a set of
broader factors, which we discuss in the following section.
Part III: Mutually Constitutive Boundaries of EU Governance in Belarus
Transactional, geopolitical and cultural boundaries limit the EU’s ability
to project and transfer its rules to Belarus. We suggest that the Union’s
neo-liberal assumptions of interdependency and normative responsibility
to project ‘good governance’ abroad encounter several of these boundaries.
Whereas some aspects of these boundaries are maintained by the Union,
many others are in fact constructed by the Belarusian government and
conditioned by its unique geopolitical positioning between the Russian
Federation and the ‘West’.
Transactional Boundaries
Bilateral trade and economic relations between the Union and Belarus
remain covered by the TCA, concluded by the USSR in 1989 and subsequently endorsed by Belarus. The TCA provides for MFN (most favourite
nation) treatment with regard to tariffs. The EU does not apply trade sanctions against Belarus, but it subjects the country to one of the toughest
bilateral textile regimes of all its trade partners (Dura, 2008: 5). Following
a complaint by the International Trade Unions, the Commission started
the procedure of withdrawing the EU Generalized System of Preferences
(GSP) from Belarus. The Council adopted the Commission proposal in
2006 and the withdrawal entered into force in June 2007.15
It is clear that the Union has not moved towards facilitating trade transactions with Belarus. The EU is Belarus’s second main trading partner and
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accounts for approximately one-third of Belarus’s trade (total turnover in
2006 was Ú8.7 billion, half of which was EU exports and half EU imports).16
At the same time, the customs union between Russia and Belarus prevents
a free trade agreement with the EU (Dura, 2008: 4). Still, the significance
of the ‘transactional’ boundary between the Union and Belarus has to be
placed in the context of the actual products exported by Belarus. Over 60%
of these exports are products using oil delivered to Belarus from Russia
(Dura, 2008: 4). According to estimates, the removal of GSP represents a
difference of 3% of the standard tariff that now applies and will affect only
10% of Belarus’s exports (Office for a Democratic Belarus, 2007a). Therefore, use of GSP withdrawal as a sanctioning or ‘hard governance’ tool by
the EU to affect political changes in Belarus is questionable. Even if, as is
often suggested, GSP withdrawal was meant less as a ‘threat’ to Belarus’s
economy and more as a soft-governance strategy to ‘name and shame’ the
Belarusian leadership internationally (the EU has so far withdrawn GSP
status only from Burma), it had no visible effects on the Belarusian government other than provoking some disquiet among ‘softliners’ (working
towards ending Belarus’s international isolation) and ‘hardliners’ (aiming
to preserve the status quo) within the Belarusian authorities (Office for a
Democratic Belarus, 2007b).
With regard to financial transactions, EU private investment fund managers have begun to show a greater interest in Belarus during 2007. At the
same time, the Belarusian government seems to be opening up towards
Europe and has indicated that many state-run companies and assets may
be privatized in the near future (International Herald Tribune, 2008). In
May 2007, the Belarusian government and a number of large European companies set up the Council for Business Cooperation between Belarus and
the EU. The main purpose of this non-profit organization was to promote
the establishment of economic ties between Belarusian and EU businesses
and to attract foreign investors to finance major projects in Belarus.17 In
October 2007, Telekom Austria became the largest investor in Belarus after
buying a 70% stake in a GSM network operator (MDC) for €730m (Wilson,
2008). Much of Lukashenko’s recent policy allowing for increased European
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the country stems from Russia’s decision to treble the amount Belarus has to pay for natural gas in 2008 (from
$47 to $150 per 1k cubic metres annually). Lukashenko’s popularity depends
on economic stability, which in turn explains his tactical engagement now
with European investors. On 4 March 2008, the president signed a decree to
waive the Golden Share rule, which is vital for attracting foreign European
investment (Allnutt, 2008). Still, trade and financial transactions between
the EU and Belarus are dwarfed by the amount of equivalent transactions
between Belarus and Russia.
Besides the boundaries limiting trade and financial relations, the physical
EU border constitutes a very visible boundary to the movement of Belarusian
citizens. Following enlargement of the Union and the Council’s decision
to extend the Schengen area in November 2007, the standard fee for both
single and multiple entry visas for Belarusians has increased from zero entry
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COOPERATION AND CONFLICT 44(2)
fees (with Latvia) or €5 (with Lithuania) to €60. This is roughly one-third
of the average monthly salary in Belarus. Only students who participate
in the EU’s Erasmus Mundus programme may qualify for a waiver of visa
fees (Melyantsou, 2008). Although a signature campaign has been launched
by Polish, Latvian and Austrian members of the European Parliament to
reduce visa costs for Belarusian citizens, the majority of member states in
the Council are opposed to entering negotiations on a visa facilitation agreement with Belarus prior to the country agreeing to the ENP and an ENP
Action Plan from the EU.18 Cross-border movement from Belarus into the
EU was very low prior to the introduction of the Schengen visa (less than
5% of the population of Belarus) and might now be decreasing even further
(Stefan Batory Foundation, 2007: 2).
It is therefore difficult to identify significant shifts in the transactional
boundary between the Union and Belarus. Whereas some signs point to
slight improvement in the movement of European FDI across the border,
other developments point to tightening of the transactional boundary,
specifically following the extension of the Schengen visa regime to Poland,
Latvia and Lithuania.
Geopolitical Boundaries: Belarus’s Multi-Vector Foreign Policy Strategy
The evolution of Belarus’s foreign policy serves as a barometer of its geopolitical and geo-economic dependence on its larger neighbours — EU and
Russia — thus further conditioning the construction of boundaries. Interestingly, for the first 16 years of its independence, and certainly in contrast
to its neighbours, Belarus has not had any national foreign policy strategy.
The strategy received its first formal pronouncements in late 2006. These
pronouncements were not in response to the EU’s increasingly principled
approach to Belarus; instead, they were precipitated solely by the rift in
Belarus–Russia relations over energy prices.
Before 2006, several attempts were made to develop a clear strategy
towards its neighbours, the two most prominent being the 1993 draft of
Foreign Policy Concept calling on Belarus’s return to its European home
and the 1997 draft ‘Strategy for Belarus’ proposing a closer integration with
both Europe and Russia.19 The outcome of these endeavours, however,
ensured the unequivocal prioritization of Russia as a cornerstone of
Belarus’s foreign policy. During 1995–99 the two countries signed a number
of bilateral agreements20 resulting in the Union State between Belarus and
Russia warranting vast economic benefits for the former with an annual
equivalent of 11–14% of national GDP (J. Korosteleva, 2007: 4) and allowing
Lukashenko to achieve the so-called ‘Belarusian miracle’ associated with
sustained economic growth, low unemployment, regular payment of wages
and pensions. Russia’s ‘brotherly’ aid rendered Lukashenko’s regime envious stability and reasonably high standards of living, thus ensuring full legitimacy of his government (White et al., 2005), and thereby contributing to the
erection of an explicit geopolitical boundary between Belarus and Europe.
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In the course of his extended presidency, however, Lukashenko made two
explicit attempts to ‘return’ to Europe and counter-balance his evidently
one-sided foreign policy. The first ‘come-back’ occurred in 1999, when the
President called for renewed cooperation with the EU and ‘more decisive
steps towards Europe’, noting that ‘[…] we have made a big mistake […]. We
have been leaning on the East for too long’.21 The new ‘Western’ rhetoric
was caused by the slow progress of negotiations on the Union State Treaty
with Russia, and clearly aimed at blackmailing its large eastern neighbour.
Interestingly, the EU’s conditional response led Lukashenko to declare a
short-lived ‘responsible neighbourhood policy’, whereby Belarus would
seek closer cooperation with all its neighbours, including the EU. It also
planned to seek participation in the formation of a ‘self-sufficient system
of European security’, unfreezing of the PCA and closer engagement in
cross-border cooperation; the ‘Northern Dimension’ and trade relations
(Ulakhovich, 2003). In other words, at the will of the President, the geopolitical boundaries were moved (albeit briefly) closer to Europe. This
happened not due to the seeming success of the EU external governance,
however, but evidently in an attempt to negotiate the Constitutional Act
with Russia and pertaining political and economic conditions of the Union
State.
As anticipated, Lukashenko’s pro-European rhetoric was short-lived.
With Putin’s election in office in 2000 and his initially favourable attitude to
Belarus–Russia integration, the Belarusian leader rapidly altered his foreign
policy stance, confessing that ‘renouncing the course to bring Belarus closer
to Russia would mean political death for me’ (Danilovich, 2006: 124). This
U-turn in Belarusian external relations yet again demonstrated Belarus’s
unambiguous prioritization of the Russian factor in its geopolitical and
economic considerations.
The second explicit ‘come-back’ of Lukashenko to Europe was precipitated by a new and more pragmatic stance of Russia towards its CIS
neighbours. After repeated gas-and-oil price aggression by Russia in 2002,
2004 and in late 2006, Belarus was finally forced to negotiate a 50% share
acquisition of Beltransgaz by Gazprom, as well as a gradual increase in
prices of gas, the introduction of export duty on crude oil supplies and
an annual transfer of 70% of tax revenues to Russia earned from refined
oil products (J. Korosteleva, 2007: 8). Russia also abandoned its plans for
the Yamal-Europe II pipeline through Belarus, thus cutting a potentially
vital supply of commodities upon which a large share of Belarusian GDP
would rest, and continuously threatening to stop gas supplies to Belarus for
deferred payments.
Being absolutely dependent on Russia’s subsidies and resources, receipt
of which ensured reliable 10% GDP growth rates during 2004–6, the
Belarusian leadership was left in disarray. As Putin commented on Russian
TV:
$6bln revenues from energy deals — is our support for Belarus’ economy. …
If we recall that Belarus budget in 2007 was $14bln in total, then our subsidies
equal to about 41% of that figure. (Beloruskii Rynok, 2007)
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COOPERATION AND CONFLICT 44(2)
In these new pragmatic relations with Russia, the Belarusian unreformed
‘miracle’ became more difficult to sustain, prompting considerable budget
reductions in social policies, on which Lukashenko’s legitimacy was founded,
and forcing Lukashenko to seek homage in Europe as his second explicit
‘come-back’:
Our strategic line to the European Union is clear. We are saying frankly:
without intending to join the EU, we offer a mutually beneficial partnership
with this strong neighbour … Belarus is not an enemy of the EU, she is their
partner. We are ready to cooperate. (Minsk, 2006)22
The 2008 handover meeting of Lukashenko with Putin and Medvedev in
Sochi evidently reaffirmed the President of the need to seek a multilateral
and multi-vectoral foreign policy, paying particular attention to constructing,
or indeed shifting, geopolitical boundaries closer to Europe:
[…] Belarus’ foreign strategy is based on three fundamental principles:
political sovereignty, economic openness and equal partner relations with
other countries. The ‘Golden Rule’ of our foreign policy is multi-vectoredness
and interest in reciprocal contracts […]. We are very interested in cooperating
with the West, especially the EU […]’ (Minsk, 2008)23
This brief overview of Belarusian external relations with its larger neighbours clearly demonstrated that the Belarusian president is able to shift
geopolitical boundaries; but he does so mainly in accordance with Belarus’s
strategic interests vis-à-vis Russia and not at all in response to the EU ‘hard’
governance or indeed EU’s vague promises of cooperation and financial
support. The now official strategy of the Belarusian government is in principle multi-vectoral, seeking international cooperation on the basis of
mutual interests and respect for sovereignty. It is based on two essential
dimensions: (i) diversifying its foreign energy supplies by fostering closer
ties with energy-rich countries in the CIS and abroad, and (ii) adopting
a clear pro-EU discourse asking for more cooperation in several areas of
mutual interest, including transport, borders and energy (Dura, 2008: 4). Its
declaration has now even seen some practical steps towards its realization:
release of political prisoners, energy negotiations, launch of the EU’s office
in Minsk and a six-month suspension of a travel ban for high-ranked Minsk
officials. Is this a sign of the EU effectual governance approach through
conditionality and rule transfer? Highly unlikely, as the results of recent
parliamentary elections in September 2008 and continuing harassment of
the regime’s political opponents demonstrate.24 There may be some thawing
in Belarus–EU relations in the form of technical/pragmatic network engagement adopting new styles and formats of dialogue. However, it is too soon
to draw any decisive conclusions. After all, on many previous occasions,
Belarus tactically deployed its pro-European rhetoric in an attempt to bargain with Russia, thereby exposing her unequivocal loyalty to the Eastern
vector.
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In conclusion, although the EU presently retains little leverage on the
Belarusian government, there is, nevertheless, some scope for cooperation —
not through removing but, rather, through shifting the existing geopolitical
and, especially, geo-economic boundaries that are currently binding Belarus
to Russia, providing that Lukashenko’s government sees some practical
benefits in the development of new relations with the EU. For the latter to
be effective, it ought to be less politicized, less prescriptive and more technically driven.
Cultural Boundaries of EU Governance: Belarus’s Domestic Politics
Belarus’s geopolitical boundaries have been further reinforced by its domestic culture. Excessive bureaucratization, close government monitoring of
any contacts with the West and periodic personal chastising by the President
are part of a ‘self-defence’ mechanism developed by the government to prevent international meddling in domestic affairs. A discourse of ‘normative
clash’ hastily introduced in 1997 by the EU during its ‘isolation’ campaign
has been craftily employed by the Belarusian authorities to their advantage.
Lukashenko frequently accuses Europe of ‘double standards’ towards
Belarus, thus justifying his own measures for information blockade, mass
media censorship and manipulation of public opinion. Our analysis reveals
that this seemingly normative clash is no more than politically motivated
boundaries and is carefully constructed and maintained by the Belarusian
authorities because of their geopolitical and strategic considerations.25
These are precisely the boundaries that the EU would find extremely difficult to permeate without the government’s consent and assistance if it were
to instil any leverage in the country with a view to winning ‘the hearts and
minds’ of the Belarusian population.
All media outlets in Belarus are state-owned/controlled. Alternative
press and broadcasting are only available from abroad, and may soon be prevented from circulation.26 European issues hardly permeate the Belarusian
media, which in general pay little attention to foreign affairs. The prevailing
topic in media outlets is Belarus–Russian integration; whereas other issues
receive limited non-analytical coverage. The most ‘consistent reporter’ of
the events abroad has been the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA): its press
releases often serve as a basis for the official line of the mass media. Only
successful stories of Belarus’s bilateral relations are reported, and never
with the EU as a unitary actor. Internet sources are still of limited use
(Bykouski, 2006). On average, state daily newspapers have two to three
‘European references’, in comparison to 20–30 of those in non-state media.
There is only one specifically European outlet in Belarus — ‘European
Choice’ — a supplement to the newspaper Belarusians and Market, whose
own audience covers only 0.4% of the market (IISEPS, 2007). In other words,
by controlling the media and censoring the flow of information into the
country, the Belarusian government constructs and evidently manipulates
a cultural/values boundary between Europe and Belarus.
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Public opinion in Belarus at best can be described as misinformed or
indifferent. The Belarusian population seem to ‘favour’ Eastern broadcasting. For example, those who watch TV regularly (26%) prefer Belarusian
(84%) and Russian (81%) channels, with only a small minority having
access to ‘Euronews’ (17%), satellite TV (16%) and Polish/or Ukrainian
TV (9%). Regular Internet consumers (6%) prefer Russian and Belarusian
resources (38%), with only a small minority (9%) using a European portal.
Those who listen to the radio (5%) may infrequently receive Western broadcasting. Overall, however, 92.2% of the population have never heard of new
broadcasting channels launched by the EU two years ago (IISEPS, 2008).27
Belarusians are remarkably positive about Belarus’s international standing, with 52% believing that their country has friendly relations with the rest
of the world and only 17% aware of Belarus’s isolation. When the EU took
a decision to exclude Belarus from the GSP on the grounds of violation of
trade union rights, the majority of the population (77%) either criticized
the EU, in line with their government response, or remained indifferent.
On the question whether Belarus should intensify its rapprochement with
the EU, 54% answered negatively or remained indifferent; 41% concurred
with Lukashenko’s decision to have EU representation in Minsk, with
another 40% expressing their total indifference. In other words, public
opinion seems to conform fully to the official discourse carefully censored
and manipulated by the incumbent government.
Sixty percent of Belarusians are unaware of the ENP; 83% have never
been in any EU country and 59% have not had any contact with foreigners
in the past three years. Still, the majority of Belarusians (60%) would like
to know more about developments in the EU, as well as about activities
of various EU organizations (IISEPS, 2008). Belarusians also reveal mixed
attitudes towards Russia and the EU: while a majority (52%) are aware
of better living standards in the EU, 45.3% still prefer integration with
Russia. Overall, however, there has been remarkably little change (until
recently) in public attitudes to the EU, which corroborates the governmentpromoted discourse of geopolitical and cultural boundaries between the
EU and Belarus.28
In summary, both geopolitical and cultural boundaries have been erected
by the Belarusian government to sustain the current regime and, also, in
response to the policies of its larger neighbours. Russia clearly and for
understandable reasons dominates the agenda of the Belarusian foreign
policy, even in light of seemingly improving relations with the West.
This, however, should not prevent Belarus from shifting its boundaries in
response to better tailored and technically orchestrated moves of the EU,
thus ensuring the formation of a more permeable and open to dialogue
environment in Belarus.
Conclusions
Our aim in this article has been to analyse recent developments in
EU–Belarus relations and in the ability of the EU to exercise external
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governance and to transfer its rules and norms to the country. We first
examined the current relationship through the theoretical framework of
external governance and its focus on different modes of interaction: legal/
institutional/network as well as ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ modes of governance. The
EU has adopted a twin-track approach towards Belarus based on ‘hard’
governance through conditionality and ‘soft’ governance based on ‘winning
the hearts and minds’ of the Belarusian population through financial support for civil society. EU governance through conditionality, however,
has had very little effect on the Lukashenko government. The EU itself
appears to hamper the effect of its ‘soft’ governance approach towards
Belarus through its lack of direct financial commitment to the Belarusian
population and by having erected serious administrative boundaries on
financing civil society through the ENPI. The ability of the EU to exert
governance through technical networks remains difficult to judge, although
we found some evidence that EU and Belarusian officials have agreed on a
common style of interaction in ad hoc issue networks. However, that is less
the result of EU rule-transfer and more the result of a mutually accepted
agreement based on partnership.
Developing Michael Smith’s boundaries of order approach, we then
analysed the impact of transactional, geopolitical and cultural boundaries
on the ability of the EU to transfer its rules and norms to Belarus. Contrary
to Smith’s conception of boundaries, we argue that the EU is not the sole
actor creating, shifting and maintaining the boundaries between itself
and third countries. Our empirical analysis confirms that the Lukashenko
government deliberately re-defined its geopolitical and cultural ‘values’
boundaries with ‘Europe’, or the ‘West’, in response to developments in its
relations with Moscow. The EU is thus little more than an observer in the
construction of the geopolitical and cultural boundaries between itself and
Belarus.
In summary, the only visible effect that the EU is having on ‘changes’
in Belarus is the agreement on a common pragmatic style of cooperation
which is generated through expert networks. That effect, however, is not
the result of EU governance through rule transfer, as Lavenex and other
external governance frameworks would imply. Rather, these changes in the
attitudes of Belarusian officials were inspired by the principle of partnership
based on ‘shared interests’.
Changing official attitudes in expert networks is of course too little and
too vague evidence to demand a complete remodelling of the EU’s current
twin-track approach towards Belarus. Nevertheless, taking into account the
negligible effect of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ modes of EU external governance on
the country, it would be worth while re-emphasizing the principle of partnership (rather than governance) in the political (and academic) approach to
Belarus. The new Eastern Partnership (EaP) (Commission, 2008b) — which
will be officially announced at the EU summit in May 2009 — could, for
example, constitute a formidable framework through which to pursue a
‘triple-track’ policy for Belarus based on feasible conditionality criteria,
enhanced support for the population and pragmatic partnership.29
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Notes
We record our appreciation for financial support from the UK Economic and Social
Research Council under grant RES-061–25–0001, and the constructive comments of
three anonymous referees on an earlier version of our manuscript.
1. Lavenex also cites Michael Smith’s notion of ‘boundaries of order’. She adopts
only the institutional/legal boundary for the external governance approach, which
greatly reduces the contribution of Smith’s approach to conceptualizing the Union’s
relationship with neighbouring states (i.e. the role of transactional, geopolitical and
cultural boundaries) (Lavenex, 2004: 683; see also Gänzle, 2008).
2. Country Strategy Paper/National Indicative Programme: Belarus 2005–06, 28
May 2004; European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument: Belarus Country
Strategy Paper 2007–13 and National Indicative Programme 2007–10, 2006.
3. European Commission, EuropeAid, Project Database: available at http://
ec.europa.eu/europeaid/cgi/frame12.pl, accessed on 15 March 2008.
4. Interview with Commission Official, Brussels, 6 March 2008.
5. Ibid.
6. At the time of writing (December 2008), it is not clear whether or how ENPI,
EIDHR and Non-State Actors Programmes will be linked and/or their implementation monitored. The current proposal for the ‘Eastern Partnership’ is silent
on these issues (Eastern Partnership Proposal, 2008; Commission, 2008b).
7. Interview Commission Official, Brussels, 6 March 2008.
8. Ibid.
9. For more information, see our discussion of geopolitical and cultural boundaries
below.
10. Interview Commission Official, Brussels, 6 March 2008.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Further information is available at: http://soderkoping.org.ua/page2440.
html. Two Belarusian NGOs also participate: the Belarusian Movement of Medical
Workers (Refugee Counseling Service) and the Minsk City Bar Association.
14. Söderköping Process, Belarus plans to meet international standards of border
control, Press Release, 24 September 2007 and Migration and Combating Trafficking
Centre in Human Beings opened in Minsk, Press Release, 20 July 2007.
15. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Greece opposed plans to suspend Belarus from
the EU’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) on trade. For more information
on the policies of the EU’s new Eastern member states towards Belarus, see Bugajski
(2007).
16. DG External Relations, EU–Belarus Relations. Available at http://ec.europa.
eu/world/where/belarus/index_en.htm, accessed on 6 March 2008.
17. Key participants include the Royal Bank of Scotland, the Netherlands’
ABN AMRO, as well as the Belarusian State Petrochemical Industry Concern
(Belnaftakhim). Available at http://www.democraticbelarus.eu/node/3577, accessed
on 10 March 2008.
18. Declaration on Reducing the Costs of Obtaining a Visa for Belarusian
Citizens. Available at http://www.democraticbelarus.eu/node/3329.
19. The 1993 draft was rejected on the grounds of ‘being incomplete’, and the
1997 draft for being ‘too pro-European’ (Ulakhovich, 2001: 84, 97).
20. The following treaties were signed between Lukashenko and Yeltsin: the
Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation with Russia (21
February 1995); the Treaty on a Community of Sovereign Republics (2 April 1996);
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the Russia–Belarus Union Chapter (23 May 1997); the Treaty on Equal Rights of
Russian and Belarusian Citizens (25 December 1998) and the Treaty on the Creation
of the Union State (8 December 1999).
21. Lukashenko’s speech reprinted in Respublika, 9 April 1999.
22. Lukashenko’s speech delivered at the meeting with the heads of Belarus’s
diplomatic missions (Minsk, August 2006), Press Release, No. 26558. Available at:
www.president.gov.by; accessed in February 2008.
23. Lukashenko’s speech delivered at the meeting with BSU students, 12 February
2008, Press Release, No. 49929. Available at: http://www.president.gov.by/; accessed
in February 2008.
24. Despite the close attention of the EU and international observers at the
recent parliamentary elections in Belarus and Lukashenko’s pledges for free and fair
elections, no single opposition candidate succeeded in being elected. The evidence
may partially corroborate public legitimacy of the Lukashenko regime as well as
the limited appeal of the opposition to Belarusian voters. For more details, see
E. Korosteleva (2009), ‘Was There A Revolution?’.
25. As the provisional results of opinion polls commissioned in Belarus in November 2008 under the auspices of the ESRC grant suggest, public opinion sways in line
with the official discourse, now showing signs of interest and considerable meltdown towards Europe.
26. A highly controversial law on the mass media has recently been approved by
the Belarus Parliament and ratified by the President in August 2008. It requires all
online media outlets to register with the Ministry of Justice or face suspension. It
also expands and obfuscates a list of violations on the basis of which a media outlet
may be closed (as well as legal enforcement agencies who may issue warnings), which
will clearly enhance government control over the Internet press. For more details,
see debate at: http://naviny.by/rubrics/society/2008/06/28/ic_news_116_292874/;
accessed in July 2008.
27. Unless otherwise stated, the source of the 2007–08 data cited in the article is
the Vilnius-based Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies
(IISEPS) website: www.iiseps.org. IISEPS is regarded widely as impartial and an
objective source of information, and its findings are corroborated by a range of
other sources (including our own surveys conducted in 2001, 2006 and 2008).
28. Our findings show that the majority of Belarusians knowingly support
Lukashenko’s regime, which they see as the only alternative (or at least the lesser
of two evils) and with which they have learned to cope strategically. For more
information, see E. Korosteleva (2009).
29. On 3 December 2008, the Commission presented its Communication on
the Eastern Partnership (EaP). The initiative aims to enhance EU relations with
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Belarus. Belarus, however,
is the only country whose participation in the Partnership remains uncertain. In
October 2008, the Union temporarily lifted a travel ban on Lukashenko following
the release of political prisoners. That decision will be reviewed in March 2009 and,
if confirmed, the Belarusian president will be among the leaders of the six countries
taking part in the EU–Eastern Partners summit in Prague in spring 2009; see Jowiak
(2008).
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GISELLE BOSSE, Assistant Professor in European Studies at
Maastricht University, The Netherlands holds an MA degree from the
College of Europe in Warsaw, Poland and has a PhD from the University
of Aberystwyth, UK. Her research focuses on the EU’s policies towards
its ‘neighbours’ in Eastern Europe. She is also conducting research
within the framework of an ESRC-funded project ‘Europeanising or
Securitising the “outsiders”?’ (RES-061-25-0001), 2008-10, together
with Elena Korosteleva.
Address: Department of Politics, Maastricht University, P.O. Box
616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. [email: g.bosse@politics.
unimaas.nl]
ELENA KOROSTELEVA-POLGLASE, Lecturer in European
Politics in the Department of International Politics, Aberystwyth
University, UK holds a PhD degree from the University of Bath, and
a PhD equivalent from the Belarusian State University. She is the
Principal Investigator for an ESRC-funded project ‘Europeanising
or Securitising the “outsiders”?’ (RES-061-25-0001), 2008-10. Her
main research interests include democratization, foreign policy and
partnership-building of East European regimes with the EU.
Address: Department of International Politics, Aberystwyth University,
Aberystwyth, Wales, SY23 3FE, UK. [email: [email protected]]
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