Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 87A, pp. 237–253, 2009 DOI:10.2151/jmsj.87A.237 237 TRMM 2A12 Land Precipitation Product – Status and Future Plans Nai-Yu WANG Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA Chuntao LIU Department of Meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA Ralph FERRARO NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, Maryland, USA Dave WOLFF NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA Ed ZIPSER Department of Meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA and Chris KUMMEROW Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA (Manuscript received 23 August 2008, in final form 24 December 2008) Abstract The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) 2A12 product consists of unique components configured for land and oceanic precipitation retrievals. This design was based on the vastly different physical characteristics of the retrieval, involving primarily emission over ocean and entirely scattering over land. This paper describes the current status of the TRMM Version 6 (V6) 2A12 product over land and envisioned improvements for TRMM TMI V7 and GPM GMI V1. On a global scale, the 2A12 land algorithm exhibits biases when compared with the TRMM 2A25 (Precipitation Radar (PR) based) and rain gauges. These range from 6 percent for GPCC to 20 percent for 2A25. Closer comparison also reveals regional and seasonal biases, with the largest positive biases found in warm-season convective zones and over semi-arid regions. Some negative biases are found in warm-rain precipitation regimes where scattering at 85 GHz is unable to detect a precipitation signal. On an instantaneous time scale, 2A12 land also produces a positive bias when compared with high-quality radar data from Melbourne, Florida, a TRMM ground validation site. The largest discrepancies occur for rain rates of less than 2 mm h-1. A number of known “anomalies” are highlighted, including overestimation of rainfall in deep convective systems, underestimation in warm-rain regimes, and a number of features associated with the Corresponding author: Nai-Yu Wang, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA E-mail: [email protected] ©2009, Meteorological Society of Japan 238 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 87A screening component of the algorithm (e.g., snow cover, deserts, etc.). Future improvements for TRMM TMI V7 are described and include the use of ancillary data to determine the underlying surface characteristics and the development of improved brightness-temperature to rain-rate relationships with a more robust data set of TMI and PR matchups, stratified by atmospheric parameters (i.e., surface temperature, atmospheric moisture, etc.) obtained from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model fields. Finally, the promise of an improved land algorithm through the use of high-frequency microwave measurements is described. This will form the basis for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Global Microwave Imager (GMI) V1 algorithm. 1. Introduction The retrieval of rainfall over land from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) has undergone many changes from its original 1998 form. Imbedded within the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF), originally designed for oceanic retrievals and forming the basis for the TRMM 2A12 product, the land portion has been improved substantially from its original form. However, even though it is part of GPROF and utilizes Bayesian retrieval, the land algorithm has several limitations; most notably, it has been “engineered” to simply match cloud profiles based primarily on the scattering signature at 85 GHz, irrespective of the actual cloud microphysics being encountered. This creates significant regional biases, especially in non-tropical atmospheres, as the cloud profiles consist mainly of tropical, oceanic precipitation systems that have been simply transformed into land systems. Nonetheless, the land algorithm has proven to be useful in a number of applications and serves as the cornerstone for many of the multi-sensor precipitation products that have emerged over the past several years, including the TRMM 3B42RT products. Another feature of the land algorithm is the set of screens that is used to identify and remove anomalous surface types, such as desert and snow cover, that have spectral characteristics similar to rainfall. These screens were adopted from early work done for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and also have limitations; they have remained virtually unchanged since the launch of TRMM. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the 2A12 land algorithm, describe its strengths and weaknesses, and present some thoughts on the next version of the algorithm as we enter into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) era. Section 2 provides details about the algorithm and its history, Section 3 describes the performance of the current product, Section 4 discusses future enhancements envisioned for the algorithm, and Section 5 presents a summary. 2. 2A12 land background & history The TMI precipitation algorithm (also known as the Goddard Profiling Algorithm or GPROF) uses a Bayesian approach to match observed brightness temperatures with those from a database of simulated brightness temperatures through a radiative transfer model coupled with hydrometeor profiles from cloudresolving model simulations (Kummerow et al. 2001). Over-ocean precipitation retrievals make use of the strong contrast between the warm, un-polarized emission from rainfall and the cold, polarized ocean surface. Both emission-based (Wilheit et al. 1977, 1991) and scattering-based (Spencer et al. 1989; Grody 1991; Ferraro and Marks 1995) methods are utilized. Over land, precipitation retrievals are far more difficult due to the relatively warm and un-polarized nature of the land surface and the high and variable land-surface emissivity. Liquid hydrometeors may increase or decrease the observed brightness temperatures, depending on the land-surface emissivity; this degrades the usefulness of an emission-based algorithm. The most useful signal from precipitation over land is the brightness-temperature (Tb) depression due to scattering by ice or large raindrops, primarily at 85 GHz. Because the land-surface emissivity varies with changes in surface characteristics (i.e., vegetation, snow cover, soil moisture, etc.) as well as surface temperature, a rain/no-rain Tb depression threshold has been devised to alleviate the problem of varying surface characteristics. In addition, desert and snow surfaces cause the Tb to depress at 37 and 85 GHz and can be confused with precipitation signatures. If these surfaces are not properly screened, they can be mis- March 2009 N.-Y. WANG et al. interpreted as precipitation. Thus, the first step in the retrieval is to determine whether rain is likely (rain detection) before attempting to quantify the precipitation. This is the so-called “screening” procedure. This screening method is by no means fool-proof. It may fail to detect precipitation in the case of warm precipitation processes that do not produce significant icephase clouds, or may detect excessive precipitation in the case of a strong ice-phase cloud that evaporates before it reaches the ground as rain. The basis of the current land-precipitation algorithm comes from the work of Grody (1991), who developed a global scattering index (SI) for SSMI. This is a measure of the 85 GHz brightness-temperature depression caused by the presence of ice. Ferraro et al. (1994, 1998) made improvements over Grody’s original SI to improve the rain detection sensitivity and to better screen anomalous scattering features such as frozen surface and un-vegetated land. The basic algorithm uses the 19 and 21 GHz Tb to predict the 85 GHz Tb under non-raining conditions, then obtains a measure of the depression due to scattering by subtracting the observed 85 GHz Tb from the predicted 85 GHz Tb. A threshold value for SI is then determined to separate rain from no-rain. Subsequent screens remove desert, snow-covered, and semiarid land. To relate SI with the rainfall rate, Ferraro and Marks (1995) calibrated SI with ground-based radar and determined a rainfall rate and SI relationship appropriate for global applications. For Version 5 (V5) of the TMI algorithms, it was decided to selectively match the GPROF cloud-model database with the ice-scattering and rain-rate algorithm (Ferraro 1997). Between the 21 GHz and 85 GHz vertically polarized brightness temperatures, a threshold of 8 Kelvins was found to be appropriate for identifying pixels with rain (McCollum and Ferraro 2003). Some modifications have been made to the TMI algorithm over land since V5. In V6, McCollum and Ferraro (2003) utilized TMI and PR matchups to develop a probability of convection, and they now include both stratiform and convective rain rates in the data base. Most recently, McCollum and Ferraro (2005) refined the databases and provided coastline improvement, all applicable to TMI, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth (AMSR-E) and SSMI. 3. Performance There are several ways to illustrate the performance of the 2A12 land algorithm: large-scale climatic pat- 239 terns, intercomparison with other precipitation products on various time scales, and comparisons with ancillary data sets on an instantaneous time scale. Additionally, the examination of specific storms on a regional basis highlights certain known anomalies in the retrieval caused by factors such as the underlying surface conditions and the precipitation regime. All of these aspects are discussed in this section. 3.1 Global comparisons Two independent data sets are used in this comparison: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V2 gauges-only product, referred to as the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (Rudolf, 1995) (GPCC) and the TRMM 2A25 PR rain product (Iguchi et al. 2000). GPCC data is used here to provide independent, gauged-based precipitation data for the global land surface in addition to satellite observations for comparison purposes. GPCC uses interpolated gauge observations and represents area-mean monthly precipitation on grid cells. Caution must be taken when interpreting GPCC over areas where there are sparse or no gauges; however, this data set is widely used by the climate community and possesses one of the most comprehensive collections of gauges yet assembled. This section examines the overall similarities and differences between 2A12 and the other two data sets, while a detailed examination is presented in Section 3.3. Figure 1 compares the 2A12 to the 2A25 global rainfall distribution over land for December 1998 through May 2008. It shows the annual (1a) and seasonal (1b and 1c) differences. In general, 2A12 produces greater rainfall than 2A25, particularly over the tropics and in the mid-latitude warm seasons. This disagreement is likely attributable to the overestimation of the 85 GHz ice scattering-rain relationship in convective precipitation regimes. However, there are regions where 2A25 rainfall exceeds 2A12, particularly during the cold season in the subtropics. For example, over the eastern United States during December, January, and February (DJF), 2A12 underestimates relative to 2A25 (1b). Other examples of these areas are in arid to semi-arid climates and coastal topographic areas where shallow warm rain systems that the PR can detect but the TMI cannot may perhaps occur, or where rainfall is filtered out due to the screening employed within 2A12. Examples of the topographic effect are seen during the monsoon season in June, July, and August (JJA) over the Western Ghats in the Indian subcontinent and in the Arakan Mountains 240 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 87A Fig. 1. Differences among 10-year mean unconditional monthly rainfall from TRMM PR (2A25), TMI (2A12), and rain gauges (GPCC). Figures 1a to 1c represent the differences between 2A12 and 2A25 for annual, DJF, and JJA, while Figs. 1d to 1f are for 2A12 and GPCC. Units are mm mon.-1 March 2009 N.-Y. WANG et al. Fig. 2. Monthly time series of the mean land (38°S to 38°N) rainfall anomalies for 2A12 and 2A25 (mm d-1). The anomalies reflect departures from the mean values of each data product for December 1998 through May 2008. and the Bilauktang Range in the South Asian coastal area, where 2A12 produces less rainfall than 2A25 or GPCC (1c and 1f). The reason for this may be the low level of humidity from southwest oceans, which does not produce enough ice for 2A12 to detect rainfall. Overall, the global mean land rainfall is 2.71 mm d-1 for 2A12 and 2.24 mm d-1 for 2A25. Another interesting comparison of the behavior of the two products is found when looking at interannual variations on a monthly time scale (Fig. 2). Here the mean is removed from each data set so that the comparison is strictly looking at the departures from the overall mean of each data set. Overall, the two data sets track closely to one another in terms of their magnitudes and positive/negative phases. A similar analysis is performed for 2A12 vs. the GPCC rain gauges (Figs. 1d–f and 3). In this case, the bias pattern is somewhat similar to the previous comparison; however, there are notable differences. The apparent overestimates in 2A12 remain when compared with the gauges, but now there are also pronounced underestimates in many locations. In particular, strong seasonal underestimates occur in South America and Southeast Asia, perhaps attributable to warm-rain processes that are unobservable by either TMI or PR. Overall, the global mean land rainfall is 2.71 mm d-1 for 2A12 and 2.55 mm d-1 for the GPCC rain gauges, or about a 6% difference, which is much closer than 2A25. The interannual variations (Fig. 3) 241 Fig. 3. As in Fig. 2, but for 2A12 and GPCC rain gauges over a common spatial domain (38°S to 38°N). show much less agreement than was found with 2A25. A summary of the correlation coefficients and rootmean-square errors from the monthly mean rainfall for 2A12, 2A25, and GPCC is presented in Table 1. 3.2 Rain-rate distributions The TRMM Ground Validation (GV) program produces quality-controlled rainfall products for four primary sites: Darwin, Australia (DARW); Houston, Texas (HSTN); Kwajalein, Republic of the Marshall Islands (KWAJ); and Melbourne, Florida (MELB). These sites were established during the pre-mission phase of TRMM, providing researchers with a quasi-continuous, long-term time series of rainfall measurements at a higher spatio-temporal resolution than can be observed with satellite sensors alone. The GV data subsequently provides the empirical surface reference needed to independently verify the accuracy of TRMM rainfall measurements (Thiele 1988). The GV program is documented in Wolff et al. (2005, 2008), including site and product descriptions as well as algorithms and data processing techniques. For this study, the TRMM 2A53 instantaneous rain maps are used. The 2A53 data provides instantaneous rain rates at a resolution of 2 km x 2 km and covers a continuous region extending 150 km from a given GV radar. Each rain map thus consists of a 151 x 151 pixel grid with the GV radar located at the center pixel. TRMM 2A12 and 2A25, along with the combined 2B31 (Haddad et al. 1997a, 1997b) instantaneous rain rates, were matched at the scale of the TMI footprint and were statistically compared to the 2A53 GV ra- 242 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 87A Table 1. Summary of monthly mean rainfall correlation coefficients (R) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) between TRMM 2A12, 2A25, and GPCC gauges from 1998-2008. Product R RMSE mm day-1 2A12-2A25 0.78 0.30 2A12-GPCC 0.40 0.22 2A25-GPCC 0.53 0.26 dar rain-rate spectra at MELB. Six years of regional TRMM overpass data were used (1999 to 2004). Though the TMI “footprint” used in this study provides a convenient scale for analysis, it does not represent a fundamental physical scale since the size is determined based on an empirical optimization of rain information spanning a broad spectrum of physical scales and with 13.9 km along-track sampling resolution (Kummerow et al. 1998; Olson et al. 2006). The effective field of view at 10 GHz, for example, is 67 x 37 km2, whereas at 85 GHz the field of view is 7 x 5 km2. The 2A12 rain rate is derived from a combination of low-frequency channels with larger footprints and a higher (85 GHz) frequency channel with a smaller footprint. The resultant 2A12 footprint is then nominally about fourteen kilometers. Fourteen kilometers subsequently represents a kind of maxi- Fig. 4. Probability distribution function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of rain rates (mm h-1) for 2A12 vs. 2A53 (Melbourne, Florida GV site) for 1999 to 2004. mum sample spacing; in other words, if one were to lay down 14 km x 14 km boxes centered on each TMI radiance footprint, they would be spatially contiguous from scan to scan, but would overlap along the scan line. To simplify the procedure, TMI and GV were matched at the scale of the TMI footprint by considering a 7 km radius around the center of each TMI Table 2. Summary of rain-rate statistics (mm h-1) for TRMM rainfall products 2A12, 2A25, and 2B31, compared with 2A53 (MELB) for 1999-2004. Product Mean GV Mean Std. Dev. GV Std. Dev. RMS Bias Ratio R 2A12 2.20 2.07 4.78 4.53 4.63 1.06 0.51 2A25 2.04 2.07 3.50 4.53 3.32 0.99 0.69 2B31 2.36 2.07 4.37 4.53 3.16 1.13 0.75 March 2009 N.-Y. WANG et al. pixel location. Unconditional mean rain rates (i.e., R ≥ 0) were then computed within each TMI footprint by locating all of the pixels (rainy and non-rainy) found within this circular region. The results over land points are presented in Table 2. Melbourne is in a sub-tropical precipitation regime, and the results are generally consistent with those of the previous section: 2A12 has an apparent positive bias compared with both 2A25 and the GV data. It also has the highest Root Mean Square (RMS) error and the lowest correlation. Beyond comparing bulk statistics, an examination of the probability distribution function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the various data types also reveals valuable information (Fig. 4). In general, both the PDF and CDF are in very good agreement for rain rates above 2 mm h-1, with 2A12 slightly overestimating medium rain rates (between 0.1 and 2 mm h-1). 3.3 Storm scale Another useful approach to examining the performance of the 2A12 land algorithm is to examine individual storms. Figure 5 presents an example of a TMI overpass on 30 August 2005, at approximately 0200 UTC that captures the remnants of Hurricane Katrina over the United States. This example was chosen to point out several characteristics of the retrieval. For comparison, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Stage IV (SIV) hourly precipitation product (a blend of radar and rain gauges) is 243 also presented. There are several similarities and differences between the two rain fields (which have been gridded to a common 0.25-degree grid). Evident is the spiral rain feature associated with the remnants of Katrina, with the core rain region depicted by both rain products along the northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. The SIV rain features appear to be more continuous and realistic for a tropical cyclone, while 2A12 is more scattered in nature, although the TMI reflects a “snapshot” of the rain field while SIV is an hourly total, and this could explain these differences. The maximum rain rates are near 15 mm h-1 for 2A12 and over 20 mm h-1 for SIV. Also presented in Fig. 5 is a scatter plot of the rain rates from the two estimates and the calculated statistics. The modest correlation of 0.71 is typical for matchups of this type. The scatter plot also indicates a slight underestimation by 2A12 in tropical rain systems whereas previous comparisons indicated that in general, 2A12 overestimates warmseason convective rainfall. This again highlights the regional and seasonal biases that are encountered in satellite rainfall retrievals. Nonetheless, 2A12 is used as a calibrating source of rainfall for several blended rainfall schemes including the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) (Joyce et al. 2004). 3.4 Known anomalies in 2A12 land To improve the current 2A12 rain-retrieval algorithm over land, it is important to evaluate the anom- Fig. 5. 2A12 rain rates (left) and Stage IV rain rates (middle) over the United States at approximately 0200 UTC on August 30, 2005. Units are mm h-1. (right) Scatter plots between the two estimates; correlation=0.71, with 2A12 6% higher than the mean Stage IV value. 244 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan alies in the retrieved product. However, it is difficult to quantify these anomalies globally because there is no single rainfall product that can represent the ground truth. Products from rain gauges provide reliable estimates of rainfall only over areas with dense rain-gauge networks. Rainfall retrieved from the TRMM PR near-surface reflectivity has global coverage between 36°N and 36°S, but suffers from uncertain attenuation correction, problems over complex terrain, and the limit of the minimum detectable signal (Iguchi et al. 2000). In this section, we begin the discussion of the anomalies by further comparing the rainfall estimates among products from TRMM (2A12 and 2A25) and GPCC rain gauges. As described in an earlier section, the differences between the 10-year mean 2A12 and 2A25 unconditional monthly rainfall appear in Fig. 1a–c. The differences between mean 2A12 and unconditional rainfall from GPCC rain gauges (GPCC, Rudolf 1995) are given in Fig. 1d–f. There are both similarities and differences among 2A12, 2A25, and GPCC as seen in Fig. 1a–f. These are related to the performance of the algorithms in different weather regimes over different types of land surfaces, and to various detection biases. a. Biases in strong deep convective systems The first most obvious anomaly in Fig. 1 is the Vol. 87A large overestimation of rainfall by 2A12 over central Africa. There is a larger overestimation from 2A12 than 2A25 over GPCC. The sparse rain-gauge network over Africa may contribute to the uncertainty of the GPCC estimates. However, even if GPCC is too low, it is fair to ask why 2A12 has the highest rainfall estimation over central Africa. To answer this question, TMI Precipitation Features (TPFs) are defined by grouping the 2A12 raining area, using nine years of TRMM observations (Liu et al. 2008). The total volumetric rainfall from 2A12 and 2A25, as well as the maximum height of the PR 20 dBZ echo inside each TPF, are then calculated separately. Next, 2D histograms of the differences between the 2A25 and 2A12 volumetric rainfall and the minimum TMI 85 GHz Polarization Corrected Temperature (PCT, Spencer et al. 1989) in TPFs with size above 2000 km2 are generated over tropical land and the ocean as seen in Fig. 6. There are large differences between the histograms over land and over the ocean because of the different land and ocean 2A12 algorithms. Over the ocean, 2A12 retrieves more rainfall than 2A25 for raining systems with weak convection inferred from a relatively high minimum 85 GHz PCT. However, over land, there are two peaks of large overestimation of rainfall by 2A12 over 2A25. One is for systems with weak convection; this is largely Fig. 6. 2D histogram of rainfall differences between 2A12 and 2A25 and a minimum 85 GHz PCT in the precipitation features defined by a 2A12 raining area larger than 2000 km2 over tropical land and ocean. March 2009 N.-Y. WANG et al. caused by the absence of aloft ice in shallow systems and 2A12 underestimating the warm rain (more details are in Section 3.4.b). The other peak is for systems with strong convection inferred from low minimum 85 GHz PCTs. It is known that strong, deep convection lifts large amounts of ice to high altitudes, causing strong scattering of the upwelling radiance from below by the ice hydrometeors, leading to depression of the brightness temperature at 85 GHz. Because the 2A12 land algorithm depends so strongly upon this ice-scattering signal, the algorithm derives high rainfall rates for these cases. Central Africa is known to have the strongest convective systems anywhere in the tropics (Liu and 245 Zipser 2005). Therefore, it is speculated that the overestimation of 2A12 over 2A25 and GPCC is caused by an inappropriate 85 GHz ice scattering to rain rate relationship. This may also explain the overestimation of rainfall by 2A12 over regions known for their strong convection (Zipser et al. 2006), such as the southern plains of the US in JJA (Figs. 1b and 1e), and Argentina in DJF (Figs. 1c and 1f). A similar result was noted by McCollum et al. (1999) when examining biases in the GPCP blended rainfall product. b. Underestimation of warm rainfall Warm rain is defined as “rain formed from a cloud having temperatures at all levels above 0°C, Fig. 7. Rain detection differences (color fill) between TRMM 2A25 and TRMM 2A12 by ratios. GPCC unconditional rainfall (units are mm/month) is represented as contours. Note that a large area over northern Australia is missing due to a lack of observations by the TRMM PR. 246 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan and resulting from the droplet coalescence process” (Glickman 2000; Schumacher and Houze 2003). Because the current 2A12 land-precipitation algorithm depends on the ice-scattering signal to detect rain, warm-cloud precipitation that does not produce significant ice would likely escape detection. Liu and Zipser (2008) show that over the east coasts of Brazil, Madagascar, the Philippines, and Costa Rica in winter and the west coast of India in summer there is a large amount of warm trade-wind rainfall. Also, over the Amazon basin rainfall is produced by clouds that do not produce a strong ice-scattering signature. It is consistent that 2A12 shows less unconditional rainfall than 2A25 over the corresponding regions in Figs. 1b and 1c and also exhibits underestimation compared with GPCC in Figs. 1e and 1f. Vol. 87A c. “False alarms” over arid land and snow surfaces Properly distinguishing raining areas from surface areas that produce a microwave signature similar to that of precipitation has always been a challenge (Grody 1991; Ferraro et al. 1998). The primary difficulty is the similar spectral characteristics of these surface features in the frequency range between 18 and 90 GHz and the inability of passive microwave sensors such as the TMI to uniquely separate them. Additionally, the current 2A12 algorithm utilizes screening techniques developed over a decade ago for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI), which has a coarser spatial resolution and different instrument performance than TMI. Two types of surface areas that are extremely difficult to identify: arid desert and snow. Figure 7 illustrates the rain-detection differences (color fill) Fig. 8. Snow case over New Mexico on December 26, 2000. The NCEP surface temperature was near 269 K over the region. The ice-scattering signature at 85 GHz from precipitation in the top left panel is consistent with the near-surface reflectivity pattern from the PR in the top right panel. However, 2A12 (bottom left) missed most of the precipitation region for this case. March 2009 N.-Y. WANG et al. between TRMM 2A25 rain occurrence and TRMM 2A12 rain occurrence in ratios. 2A12 (2A25) rain occurrence for each 1 x 1 latitude/longitude gird is calculated by dividing the total number of pixels with 2A12 surface (2A25 near-surface) rain with the total number of pixels sampled by TMI (PR). The GPCC unconditional rainfall (units are mm/month) is shown as contours. Note that a large area over northern Australia is missing due to lack of observations. The 2A12 land algorithm estimates a more unrealistic raining area than 2A25 (red color in Fig. 7) in the Sahel (Fig. 7b) and on the northern edge of the Kalahari Desert (Fig. 7c) in Africa during the dry seasons. This difference can be caused by the 2A12 surface screening, which fails to detect sand. 2A12 also detects large unrealistic raining areas over snow-covered high terrain, including eastern Tibet, Iran, and 247 the Rocky Mountains during boreal winter and over the Andes and Altiplano during austral winter. This is likely caused by the 2A12 screening failing to detect surface snow. A similar result was also noted by Seto et al. (2005) when examining snow and desert screening in 2A12. These detection anomalies can explain the overestimation of rainfall by the 2A12 land algorithm over these regions in Fig. 1. d. Other anomalies One advantage of using a screening algorithm is the elimination of false alarms of precipitation over a snow-covered surface. However, this also prevents the detection of actual precipitation in the form of snow. For example, Fig. 8 illustrates a snow case over New Mexico on December 26, 2000. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) surface temper- Fig. 9. Line of convection over New Mexico on August 6, 1999. The TRMM PR exhibits a typical structure for a leading convective line and trailing stratiform as seen in the bottom left panel. This fine-scale structure could not be captured by the TMI due to its larger footprint. This leads to a relatively larger area with a moderate rainfall rate in 2A12 retrievals (bottom right panel) compared to the heavy rainfall rate in the convective region and lower rainfall rate in the stratiform region given by 2A25 (bottom middle panel). 248 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan ature was 269 Kelvin over the area. There are clear ice-scattering signals with Tb depressions at 85 GHz and 37 GHz (Figs. 8a and 8f) due to precipitation in the form of snow occupying a fairly deep layer, as is also seen in the PR near-surface reflectivity (Fig. 8b) and the 2A25 near-surface rain rate (Fig. 8d). However, these signals are not recognized as precipitation because the screening for surface snow uses 21 GHz (Fig. 8e) to filter out cold surfaces, so that 2A12 retrieves practically no precipitation for this snow case (Fig. 8c). If a more relaxed screening were employed in 2A12, large areas of false precipitation would be detected in the process of bringing in precipitation from systems similar to those depicted in Fig. 8. Some of the differences between 2A12 to 2A25 are due to differing horizontal resolution. As seen in Fig. 9, the fine structure of convection depicted by PR over New Mexico, USA, on August 6, 1999, is smeared by 2A12 due to using information from TMI lowfrequency channels with relatively larger footprints (Kummerow et al. 1998). Thick anvil clouds may be related to another possible anomaly in 2A12, since they can create sufficient ice-scattering signals to satisfy the precipitation criteria in 2A12 over land. In some cases, large areas of thick anvil exist for which the 2A25 algorithm shows no surface rainfall because there is no detectable radar echo near the ground. However, 2A12 sometimes reports large areas of rainfall under these thick anvil clouds (not shown). These cases may partially explain the higher rain detection by 2A12 than 2A25 over central Africa (Fig. 7a–c), over Argentina in DJF (Fig. 7b), and over the southern plains of the US in JJA (Fig. 7c). In summary, this section presents several scenarios that may explain some of the important differences among 2A12, 2A25, and GPCC rainfall products. However, there are still questions to be answered. For example, why do both 2A12 and 2A25 report lower rainfall than GPCC over the Bay of Bengal, Southeast China, and southern Nigeria in JJA, and near the mouth of the Amazon in DJF? Is this due to underestimation by both algorithms of systems dominated by relatively shallow, mostly warm rain? What kind of weak precipitation systems lead to higher or lower 2A12 rainfall than 2A25 as seen in Fig. 6? Further investigations are warranted. 4. Future direction As was described in Section 3, there are several deficiencies with the current 2A12 land algorithm, Vol. 87A some of which can be addressed in the TRMM TMI Version 7 products. Improvements should also include developing a physical model as a basis and hence to move towards sensor-independent approaches as the GPM GMI Version 1 algorithm is developed. These concepts are described below. 4.1 TRMM TMI Version 7 (V7) The spectral signature of rainfall is very similar to that of other scattering surfaces such as arid land, desert sand, and snow cover. TMI alone cannot uniquely identify each of these surfaces, including rainfall, on a global basis with 100% accuracy. There is always a tradeoff between proper rain detection and false alarms; current algorithm philosophy has stressed minimizing false alarms on a global basis, recognizing that this sacrifices regional accuracy. Although the current 2A12 algorithm utilizes a series of tests to identify these features (for details see Ferraro et al. 1998), it is grossly outdated and the entire process needs to be revised. The reason for this is that many of these tests stem from original work done for the SSMI (Grody 1991; Ferraro et al. 1998) and are not necessarily suited for use with TMI because of the different sensor characteristics (e.g., footprint sizes, different channels, etc.). Rather than just relying on the sensor measurements themselves, an improved approach should incorporate ancillary data sets to make substantial progress in the area of surface identification. At the most basic level, a highly accurate land/water/coast data set specifically designed for passive microwave retrievals needs to be developed and tailored for the TMI. A complicating factor is, at what resolution should this data base be developed and how best to capture the water features? Presently, the data base used appears to identify too many regions as coast, i.e., the coastline is too broad in many cases. This is necessary to minimize land contamination in the 2A12 ocean component. In the future, land information systems (e.g., Kumar et al. 2006) that contain large inland water features and island chains can be used to improve the land component in GPROF. Another straightforward improvement in surface identification would be through using operational data products such as NOAA’s daily snow and ice products and NWP data assimilation systems such as the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS). Such data sets are supported 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and will provide a reliable means to identify many of the surface types that are encountered by the land algorithm. March 2009 N.-Y. WANG et al. Additionally, this should improve upon the number of “ambiguous” points that are flagged in the current product and offer the potential to identify more valid raining pixels over arid regions. One last area for improvement in V7 is within the land data base. As previously described, the current set of profiles is centered primarily upon tropical oceanic systems. This set was narrowed down, based on the work of McCollum and Ferraro (2003) in V6 matching PR and TMI data to create a more realistic Tb-to-surface-rainfall relationship. However, the actual hydrometeor profiles are not indicative of land precipitation processes. A near-term improvement would build upon this method by incorporating ten years of TMI and PR matchups and devising Tb and rainrate relationships as functions of rain regimes to account for geographical and seasonal variations. The idea of using PR information for the TMI algorithm was previously studied by Masunaga and Kummerow (2005) and Grecu and Olson (2006) for over ocean and by Kubota et al. (2007) for over land and ocean. Additional environmental information such as surface temperature and total precipitable water (obtained from NWP model fields) can also be used. A set of profiles stratified by such information can then be assembled, which should extend the surface-rainfallto-Tb relationship over a wider range of precipitation regimes, thus potentially reducing several of the regional biases that currently exist. In this manner, emphasis will be placed on the Tb-to-rain-rate relationship in different climate zones through the use of PR 2A25 and ancillary data rather than on cloud-resolving model simulations or ground-validation data. 4.2 GPM era As we move from the TRMM to the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite constellation era, more focus will be placed on a larger range of mid- and high-latitude precipitation regimes, including light rain, mixed-phase precipitation, and snowfall. In many parts of the world, these are the primary sources of annual precipitation, but most of these have not been considered in the TRMM-era algorithms. The GPM core satellite will fly a high-resolution multichannel microwave imager (GMI) and a dual-frequency Ku/Ka band radar (DPR) and will cover up to 65° latitude. GMI will operate on all TMI frequencies at 10.65, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89 GHz, plus two additional high-frequency channels in the 166 GHz window (V-pol and H-pol) and two sounding channels near the 183 GHz water vapor line (183 249 ± 3 and 183 ± 9). These new channels were selected to improve the detection and estimation of light rain and snowfall. The effects of precipitation on high-frequency channels have been examined through simulations and observations (Muller et al. 1994; Burns et al. 1997; Bennartz and Petty 2001; SkofronickJackson et al. 2002; Bennartz and Bauer 2003; Zhao and Weng 2002; Hong et al. 2005; Ferraro et al. 2005; Qiu et al. 2005). These studies suggest that the impact of a Tb depression through scattering by hydrometeors increases with frequency. 166 GHz contains significant information for identifying and retrieving precipitation over land because its sensitivity to cloud-liquid water and ice is above that of 89 GHz by about a factor of two. Furthermore, the influence of surface emissivity at 166 GHz is much smaller than at 89 GHz. In the 183 GHz water vapor channels, the scattering signals from hydrometeors can be extracted due to the fact that the gaseous absorption at these frequencies is well known, given the temperature and water vapor profiles (Staelin et al. 2000). The surface effect on the water vapor channels may be completely eliminated due to attenuation by the water vapor. However, in spite of the aforementioned strengths of the high-frequency channels, the relation between the surface precipitation rate and the scattering-based precipitation algorithm is complex and strongly dependent on the type of precipitation. For solid-phase precipitation, the differences are caused by variations in the ice-particle size distribution, shapes, and habits (Skofronkick-Jackson et al. 2000, 2002, and 2004; Bennartz and Petty 2001). It is important for GPM algorithm development to understand the relationships between ice-particle microphysics and the radiative properties, and the relationships between the bulk radiative properties and the observed and calculated passive microwave radiances and radar reflectivities. One logical step to be taken prior to the launch of a GPM mission is to use the data collected from pre-launch GPM ground validation (GV) field campaigns, coupled with radiative transfer modeling, to understand the snow microphysical-radiative relationships, and to develop and test snowfall-retrieval algorithms. In January 2007, GPM GV participated in the snowfall-measurement component of the Canadian CloudSat/Calipso Validation Project (C3VP) (Hudak et al. 2006; Petersen et al. 2007). GPM’s participation was aimed at improving satellite-based snowfall detection and retrieval algorithms. Intensive observations of snowfall using airborne and ground-based instrumentation were conducted near Egber, Ontario, 250 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 87A Fig. 10. Example of a synoptic snowfall event, observed by the King City radar (0135 UTC) and SSMIS on board DMSP F16 (0138 UTC) on January 22, 2007. The co-located brightness temperatures from 91 and 150 GHz (y-axis) and the near-surface reflectivity (at 1 km height) (x-axis) indicate that the 91/150 GHz brightness temperatures generally decrease with increasing radar reflectivity as the snowfall intensifies. 91 GHz exhibits higher variability than 150 GHz for a given radar reflectivity; this might be caused by the higher influence of surface emissivity on 91 GHz than 150 GHz. Canada (about 80 km north of Toronto). Emphasis was placed on intensive ground-radar sampling of snow by the scanning King City C-band radar (WKR), coordinated aircraft flight patterns through clouds, and coincident passive microwave satellite overpasses. Figure 10 depicts an example of a synoptic snowfall event observed by the King City radar (0135 UTC) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sensor (SSMIS) on board Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 (0138 UTC) on January 22, 2007. The co-located brightness temperatures from 91 and 150 GHz (y-axis) and near-surface reflectivities (at 1 km height) (x-axis) demonstrate that the 91/150 GHz brightness temperatures generally decrease with increasing radar reflectivity as the snowfall intensifies. 91 GHz exhibits higher variability than 150 GHz for a given radar reflectivity. This might be caused by the higher influence of surface emissivity on 91 GHz than 150 GHz. The ability to estimate the surface emissivity is essential in understanding the snowfall signals from passive, high-frequency microwave observations. Moreover, we are working with the GPM GV team to utilize C3VP aircraft-snow microphysics and ground-based data for radiative transfer modeling of snow-scattering parameters and satellite-microwave radiance. 5. Summary We have presented an overview of the current 2A12 land algorithm and described its strengths and weaknesses through comparisons with other precipitation products on various time and spatial scales. On the global scale, the 2A12 exhibits a positive bias compared with TRMM 2A25 and GPCC. Closer examination reveals that there are also regional and seasonal biases, with the largest positive biases in the warm-season convective zones and over semi-arid regions. The positive bias is likely caused by an inadequate 85 GHz ice scattering to rain rate relationship and improper convective rainfall classification. However, there are some exceptions in the subtropics and during cold seasons where 2A25 produces higher rainfall than 2A12. This negative bias is likely caused by an inadequate 85 GHz ice scattering to rain rate relationship or an incorrect PR reflectivity to rain rate relationship, or by attenuation correction in intensive mid-latitude storms. Examination of cumulative probability distributions from 2A12 and TRMM GV radar in Melbourne reveals that the largest discrepancy in rain occurrence is at rain rates of 2 mm h-1 or less. Additionally, several 2A12 anomalies are highlighted through examples from individual TRMM overpasses. March 2009 N.-Y. WANG et al. These include the overestimation of rainfall in strong deep connective systems and underestimation in warm rain, as well as anomalies associated with rain/no-rain screening (surface snow and deserts). These comparison results strongly suggest that the rainfall estimate biases vary as a function of the rain regime and that future rainfall algorithm development therefore needs to be conducted on a regional and seasonal basis. For the near term (TRMM TMI V7), a larger set of TMI and PR matchups will be utilized to develop Tb and rain-rate relationships as functions of rain regime in order to account for such variations. For the long term (i.e. the pre- and post-GPM eras), when emphasis will be placed on snowfall and light-rain algorithm development, the approach of using radiative transfer modeling coupled with high quality pre-GPM ground-validation campaign data will be adopted, and in fact is already underway. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank our colleagues on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Precipitation Measurement Missions’ Science Team for their collaboration over the past several years. 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