A New Understanding of Citizen
Security in the Caribbean:
Victimization Surveys
Presenter: Heather Sutton
Research Coordinator , Crime and Violence in the Caribbean IFD/ICS
Inter-American Development Bank
Acknowledgements: Jan van Dijk, John van Kersten, Anna Alvazzi del Frate,
Michael Rand, Edgar Vielma
Presentation outline
1. CCVS - Motivation and methods
2. Understanding the problem
• Size and dimensions
• Who are the victims?
3. Where to intervene?
4. Conclusions
CCVS Motivation and
Methods
What do we know about crime in the
region?
• Caribbean has some of
the highest homicide
rates in the world
• Crime and violence are
obstacles to
development
• Relative lack of empirical
studies in the sub-region
Source: IDB calculations using homicide data 2000 and 2013
Police data:
Data Limitations
•Underreporting and under-recording
•Fluctuations due to better reporting systems, more or less trust in police, etc.
•Data are not comparable from one local to another
Surveys
•Few national surveys/ limited access to data
•Not comparable within region, or with the rest of the world
•Small sample sizes, not using wording and techniques from vetted instruments
Sample size
Sampling
Victimization in Jamaica 2009/2010
LAPOP 2010
UNDP 2010
1500
2000
Multi-stage
Quota
probability
Total victimization
10%
prevalence *
*Definitions not consistent across surveys
5.6%
JNCVS 2009
3556
Multi-stage
probability
30%
How can we better understand the
problem?
Baseline
mapping
(2014/2014)
Prison
Surveys
(2016/2017)
Victimization
Survey module
(2014/2015)
Data Generation
Women’s
Health
Surveys
(2016/2017)
Business
victimization
survey
module
(2013/2014)
Caribbean Crime Victimization Survey Module (CCVS)
•
•
•
•
Developed with experts
60 question module
Based on ICVS (5 crimes)
Added to Latin American
Public Opinion Poll
(LAPOP)
• Applied in 5 Caribbean
countries
• National samples of 1,500
and oversample of 3,000 in
capital metro areas
• Limitations
Source: Lonely Planet Maps
What is the size of the
problem and how
does it compare to
the rest of the world?
1 Year Prevalence Rates
• 13% of the Caribbean population was a victim of at least
one of five common crimes
• Victimization was higher in Capital metro areas (15.2%)
Source: Author’s calculations using 2014/2015 CCVS/LAPOP datasets
Prevalence by type of crime
Assault & Threat
Theft
Robbery
Burglary
• High violent crime - assault & threat
• Particularly acute in The Bahamas and
Jamaica
• 66% of assaults happened within the
victim’s own neighborhood or home
• 73% of assault victims knew the
offender(s)
• 30% of assault in the region resulted in
the victims seeking medical attention
Source: Author’s analysis of data from 2014/2015 CCVS/ Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) dataset
Indirect victimization
• 1 in 3 residents of capital metropolitan areas has lost someone
close to violence and/or witnessed a serious attack, shooting, or
beating
• In Kingston Metropolitan Area nearly half the population has lost
someone to violence
Lost someone to violence
Witnessed attack
Source: Author’s analysis of data from 2014/2015 CCVS/ Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) dataset
Crime reporting
• On average 53% of crimes were reported
• Assault and Threat are least likely to be reported to police
– Car theft 84%, Burglary 70%, Assault (48%) , Threat (37%)
– Assaults with a weapon 61% reported, with injury 84% reported
– More likely to be reported if offender is a stranger (58% vs. 44% non-stranger)
• Violent crimes were least likely to be reported by:
– Women (45% vs. men 54%)
– Youth 18-24 (41% vs. 61% for ages 50+ )
– Single individuals (45% vs. 60% married)
The Victims – Sex
Source: Author’s calculations using 2014/2015 CCVS/LAPOP datasets
The Victims – Age
Victimization rates youth 18-24 vs. overall population
Source: Author’s analysis of data from 2014/2015 CCVS/ Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) dataset
The Victims – Income Quintile
What are potential
areas for
intervention?
Violence in the home
1 in 4 would approve or understand hitting a wife who
is unfaithful
His wife is unfaithful. Would you approve of the husband hitting his wife, or would you
not approve but understand, or would you neither approve nor understand?
Source: Author’s analysis of data from 2014/2015 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP)
*Caribbean average includes: Jamaica, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Bahamas, Barbados
**Latin American Average includes: Mexico,El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Venezuela, Dominican Republic
Violence in the home
78% of respondents say it is necessary to physically
discipline a child (vs. 51% in LAC)
Do you think that to correct a child who misbehaves it is necessary to hit or physically
(vs. 51% in LA)
punish them?
Source: Author’s analysis of data from 2014 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP)
*Caribbean average includes: Jamaica, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Bahamas, Barbados
**Latin American Average includes: Mexico,El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Venezuela, Dominican Republic
Violence in the home
88% of respondents suffered corporal punishment as a child (vs.78% in LA)
When you were a child, your parents or guardians would hit or physically punish you in
some way to correct your misbehavior
Source: Author’s analysis of data from 2014 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP)
*Caribbean average includes: Jamaica, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Bahamas, Barbados
**Latin American Average includes: Mexico,El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Venezuela, Dominican Republic
Neighborhood characteristics
Neighborhood Disorder Index
Social Cohesion Index
Informal Social Control Index
Source: Author’s calculations using 2014/2015 CCVS/LAPOP datasets
Gangs
Neighborhood Disorder
Gangs
Informal Social control
Source: Author’s calculations using
2014/2015 CCVS/LAPOP datasets
Social Cohesion
Firearms
Robbery with a weapon, by weapon type
• This is twice as much as the
average for other capital cities
registered in the ICVS
• Prevalence rate for assault at
gunpoint (1.2%), was 3 times
higher than the world average
for the ICVS (0.4%)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
New
Providence
Handgun
Long gun
KMA
Knife
Paramaribo
Glass Bottle
PSMA
Other
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
New
Providence
Handgun
Source: Author’s calculations using 2014/2015 CCVS/LAPOP datasets
GBA
Assault with a weapon, by weapon type
% of victims assualted by weapon
• A gun was used in 35% of all
robberies and in 17% of all
threats & assaults
% of victims robbed by weapon
100%
GBA
Long gun
KMA
Knife
Paramaribo
Glass Bottle
Other
PSMA
Conclusions
• Uniquely high violent crime, with firearms, committed in their neighborhoods
•
•
•
•
•
•
by people they know
Most acute in New Providence, PSMA and KMA
Interpersonal violence may be better countered with prevention than
deterrence
Focus on family violence/IPV, firearms, gangs, building stronger
neighborhoods
Funding, testing and evaluating prevention programs
National Strategies - prioritize intervention in specific vulnerable communities
for specific target individuals most at risk of victimization and offending
Agenda for continued progress in data collection and research
THANK YOU!
Heather Sutton:
[email protected]